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NASA NTRS1989

Equatorial zonal wind in the middle atmosphere derived from geopotential height and temperature data

This paper examines the feasibility of deriving the zonal wind at the equator using mean temperature and geopotential height data from satellite and radiosonde/rocketsonde measurements. Using climatological data of the stratosphere and mesosphere based on monthly mean Nimbus 5 Selective Chopper Radiometer and Nimbus 6 Pressure Modulator Radiometer measurements, and stratospheric monthly mean data from the National Meteorological Center for 1979-1986, meridional cross sections and time profiles of the zonal wind in the tropical middle atmosphere are presented. The derived zonal wind at the equator reproduces the mean climatology of the tropical middle atmosphere as well as the general characteristics of the equatorial quasi-biennial (QBO) and semiannual oscillations (SAO) observed in monthly mean radiosonde and rocketsonde data. Although the amplitude of the derived wind QBO is for the most part underestimated relative to direct-wind measurements, the amplitude of the derived wind SAO compares fairly well with rocketsonde observations.

Fleming, Eric L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A search for solar related changes in tropospheric weather

The possibility that solar variations associated with the 11-year solar cycle may be the cause of the changes in tropospheric weather and climate has been the subject to scientific investigation for several decades. Meteorologists are greatly concerned with the changes in tropospheric phenomena. An attempt was made to find solar activity related changes in tropospheric weather, by the modulation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of zonal wind at 50 mb. Rainfall and surface temperature data for a period of about three solar cycles, 1953 to 1988, from various stations in the Indian subcontinent were utilized. By extension, a possible teleconnection was looked for between the temperature changes in middle atmospheric levels and surface temperature when the data are stratified according to east or west phase of the QBO. The temperature data were averaged for January and February to represent the winter temperature and for July and August to represent the summer temperature.

Mohanakumar, K.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Global patterns of the quasi-biennial oscillation in total ozone

The global structure of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in total ozone is examined using nine years of total ozone measurements from the Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer. It is shown that the interannual variations of total ozone near the equator are dominated by the QBO and that extratropical anomalies of either sign are largest in the winter season in each hemisphere. Coherent patterns of correlation are found between the equatorial ozone and eddy variances of the ozone field at the equator and in the adjacent subtropics.

Bowman, Kenneth P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Global average ozone change from November 1978 to May 1990

A recent recalibration and reprocessing of the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data have made possible a new determination of the global average total ozone decrease of 3.5 percent over the 11-year period, January 1, 1979, to December 31, 1989, with a 2 sigma error of 1.4 percent. The revised TOMS ozone trend data are in agreement, within error limits, with the average of 39 ground-based Dobson stations and with the world standard Dobson spectrometer 83 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Superimposed on the 11-year ozone trend is a possible solar cycle effect, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), annual, and semiannual cycles. Using solar 10-7-cm flux data and 30-mbar Singapore wind data (QBO), a time series has been constructed that reproduces the long-term behavior of the globally averaged ozone. Removal of the apparent solar cycle effect from the global average reduces the net ozone loss to 2.66 + or - 1.4 percent per decade. The precise value of the global average ozone trend depends on the latitude range selected, with ranges greater than + or - 69 emphasizing the larger variations at high latitudes.

Herman, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Estimating 11-year solar UV variations using 27-day response as a guide to isolate trends in total column ozone

The total column ozone response to 11-year solar ultraviolet (UV) variations is estimated here from the observed response to 27-day solar variations adjusted for the theoretical difference between the 27-day response and 11-year response. The estimate is tested by comparing two data sets where long-term drifts have been removed, the Nimbus 7 TOMS Version 6 total column ozone and the 280 nm core-to-wing ratio (a proxy for solar UV variations). The 365-day running means of data area-weighted between 40 deg N to 40 deg S latitude give a 1.9% ozone variation related to the 11-year solar cycle compared with the estimate of 1.8%. Estimates of linear trends were reduced by a factor of 2 by including solar effects. The standard deviation from the empirical model was reduced from 1.0 to 0.6 Dobson Units, by including the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), but the QBO did not significantly alter trend estimates. Both the ozone responses to 27-day and 11-year solar variations were considerably stronger than predicted by a 2-D theoretical model.

Keating, G. M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Variability in daily, zonal mean lower-stratospheric temperatures

Satellite data from the microwave sounding unit (MSU) channel 4, when carefully merged, provide daily zonal anomalies of lower-stratosphere temperature with a level of precision between 0.01 and 0.08 C per 2.5 deg latitude band. Global averages of these daily zonal anomalies reveal the prominent warming events due to volcanic aerosol in 1982 (El Chichon) and 1991 (Mt. Pinatubo), which are on the order of 1 C. The quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) may be extracted from these zonal data by applying a spatial filter between 15 deg N and 15 deg S latitude, which resembles the meridional curvature. Previously published relationships between the QBO and the north polar stratospheric temperatures during northern winter are examined but were not found to be reproduced in the MSU4 data. Sudden stratospheric warmings in the north polar region are represented in the MSU4 data for latitudes poleward of 70 deg N. In the Southern Hemisphere, there appears to be a moderate relationship between total ozone concentration and MSU4 temperatures, though it has been less apparent in 1991 and 1992. In terms of empirical modes of variability, the authors find a strong tendency in EOF 1 (39.2% of the variance) for anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere polar regions to be counterbalanced by anomalies equatorward of 40 deg N and 40 deg S latitudes. In addition, most of the modes revealed significant power in the 15-20 day period band.

Christy, John R.↗

NASA NTRS2000

SAO and Kelvin Waves in the EuroGRIPS GCMS and the UK Meteorological Offices Analyses

This work is an intercomparison of four tropospheric-stratospheric climate models, the Unified Model (UM) of the U.K. Meteorological Office (UKMO), the model of the Free University in Berlin (FUB). the ARPEGE-climat model of the National Center for Meteorological Research (CNRM), and the Extended UGAMP GCM (EUGCM) of the Center for Global Atmospheric Modelling (CGAM), against the UKMO analyses. This comparison has been made in the framework of the "GSM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC" (GRIPS). SPARC (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate) aims are to investigate the effects of the middle atmosphere on climate and the GRIPS purpose is to organized a comprehensive assessment of current Middle Atmosphere-Climate Models (MACMs). The models integrations were made without identical contraints e.g. boundary conditions, incoming solar radiation). All models are able to represent the dominant features of the extratropical circulation. In this paper, the structure of the tropical winds and the strengths of the Kelvin waves are examined. Explanations for the differences exhibited. between the models. as well as between models and analyses, are also proposed. In the analyses a rich spectrum of waves (eastward and westward) is present and contributes to drive the SAO (SemiAnnual Oscillation) and the QBO (Quasi-Biennal Oscillation). The amplitude of the Kelvin waves is close to the one observed in UARS (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite) data. In agreement with observations, the Kelvin waves generated in the models propagate into the middle atmosphere as wave packets which underlines convective forcing origin. In most models, slow Kelvin waves propagate too high and are hence overestimated in the upper stratosphere and in the mesosphere, except for the UM which is more diffusive. These waves are not sufficient to force realistic westerlies of the QBO or SAO westerly phases. If the SAO is represented by all models only two of them are able to generate westerlies between 10 hPa and 50 hPa. The importance of the role played by subgrided gravity waves is more and more recognized. Actually, the EUGCM which includes a parametrization of gravity waves with a non-zero phase speed is able to simulate. with however some unrealistic features, clear easterly to westerly transitions as well as westerlies downward propagations. Thermal damping is also important in the westerlies forcing in the stratosphere. The model ARPEGE-climat shows more westerlies in the stratosphere than tile other three models probably due to the use of a simplified scheme to predict the ozone distribution in the middle atmosphere.

Amodei, M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Decadal Variability and Temperature Trends in the Middle Atmosphere From Historical Rocketsonde Data

Observational studies were performed using historical rocketsonde data to investigate long-term temperature trends, solar-cycle variations, and interactions between tropical and extratropical latitudes in the middle atmosphere. Evidence from tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude North American rocketsonde stations indicated a consistent downward trend over 25 years, with a solar cycle component superposed. The trend is about -1.4 to -2.0 K per decade and the amplitude of the decadal oscillation is about 1.1 K. Prior to trend derivation it was necessary for us to correct temperatures for aerodynamic heating in the early years. The empirically derived correction profile agrees well with a theoretical profile of Krumins and Lyons. A study was also performed of the correlation between equatorial winds and north polar temperatures in winter, showing that the entire stratospheric wind profile near the equator -- including the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and stratopause semiannual oscillation (SAO) -- is important to the extratropical flow, not merely the QBO component as previously thought. A strong correlation was discovered between winter polar temperatures and equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere during the preceding September, suggesting a role for the second cycle of the SAO.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Tropical Cumulus Convection and Upward Propagating Waves in Middle Atmospheric GCMs

It is recognized that the resolved tropical wave spectrum can vary considerably between general circulation models (GCMs) and that these differences can have an important impact on the simulated climate. A comprehensive comparison of the waves is presented for the December-January-February period using high-frequency (three-hourly) data archives from eight GCMs and one simple model participating in the GCM Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS). Quantitative measures of the structure and causes of the wavenumber-frequency structure of resolved waves and their impacts on the climate are given. Space-time spectral analysis reveals that the wave spectrum throughout the middle atmosphere is linked to variability of convective precipitation, which is determined by the parameterized convection. The variability of the precipitation spectrum differs by more than an order of magnitude between the models, with additional changes in the spectral distribution (especially the frequency). These differences can be explained primarily by the choice of different, cumulus par amet erizations: quasi-equilibrium mass-flux schemes tend to produce small variability, while the moist-convective adjustment scheme is most active. Comparison with observational estimates of precipitation variability suggests that the model values are scattered around the truth. This result indicates that a significant portion of the forcing of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is provided by waves with scales that are not resolved in present-day GCMs, since only the moist convective adjustment scheme (which has the largest transient variability) can force a QBO in models that have no parameterization of non-stationary gravity waves. Parameterized cumulus convection also impacts the nonmigrating tides in the equatorial region. In most of the models, momentum transport by diurnal nonmigrating tides in the mesosphere is larger than that by Kelvin waves, being more significant than has been thought. It is shown that the equatorial semi-annual oscillation in the models examined is driven mainly by gravity waves with periods shorter than three days, with at least some contribution from parameterized gravity waves; the contribution from the ultra-fast zonal wavenumber-1 Kelvin waves is negligible.

Horinouchi, T.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Evaluation of Transport in the Lower Tropical Stratosphere in a Global Chemistry and Transport Model

A general circulation model (GCM) relies on various physical parameterizations and provides a solution to the atmospheric equations of motion. A data assimilation system (DAS) combines information from observations with a GCM forecast and produces analyzed meteorological fields that represent the observed atmospheric state. An off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM) can use winds and temperatures from a either a GCM or a DAS. The latter application is in common usage for interpretation of observations from various platforms under the assumption that the DAS transport represents the actual atmospheric transport. Here we compare the transport produced by a DAS with that produced by the particular GCM that is combined with observations to produce the analyzed fields. We focus on transport in the tropics and middle latitudes by comparing the age-of-air inferred from observations of SF6 and CO2 with the age-of-air calculated using GCM fields and DAS fields. We also compare observations of ozone, total reactive nitrogen, and methane with results from the two simulations. These comparisons show that DAS fields produce rapid upward tropical transport and excessive mixing between the tropics and middle latitudes. The unrealistic transport produced by the DAS fields may be due to implicit forcing that is required by the assimilation process when there is bias between the GCM forecast and observations that are combined to produce the analyzed fields. For example, the GCM does not produce a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is present in the analyzed fields because it is present in the observations, and systematic implicit forcing is required by the DAS. Any systematic bias between observations and the GCM forecast used to produce the DAS analysis is likely to corrupt the transport produced by the analyzed fields. Evaluation of transport in the lower tropical stratosphere in a global chemistry and transport model.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Non-Migrating Tides, with Zonally Symmetric Component, Generated in the Mesosphere

For comparison with measurements from the TIMED satellite and coordinated ground based observations, we discuss results from our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) that incorporates the Doppler Spread Parameterization (Hines, 1997) for small-scale gravity waves (GWs). The NSM extends from the ground into the thermosphere and describes the major dynamical features of the atmosphere including the wave driven equatorial oscillations (QBO and SAO), and the seasonal variations of tides and planetary waves. With emphasis on the non-migrating tides, having periods of 24 and 12 hours, we discuss our modeling results that account for the classical migrating solar excitation sources only. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed seasonal variations and in particular the large equinoctial maxima in the amplitude of the migrating diurnal tide at altitudes around 90 km. Filtering of the tide by the zonal circulation and GW momentum deposition was identified as the cause. The GWs were also shown to produce a strong non-linear interaction between the diurnal and semi-diurnal tides. Confined largely to the mesosphere, the NSM produces through dynamical interactions a relatively large contribution of non-migrating tides. A striking feature is seen in the diurnal and semi-diurnal oscillations of the zonal mean (m = 0). Eastward propagating tides are also generated for zonal wave numbers m = 1 to 4. When the NSM is run without GWs, the amplitudes for the non-migrating tides, including m = 0, are generally small. Planetary wave interaction and non-linear coupling that involves the filtering of GWs and related height integration of dynamical features are discussed as possible mechanisms for generating these non-migrating tides in the NSM. As is the case for the solar migrating tides, the non-migrating tides reveal persistent seasonal variations. Under the influence of the QBO and SAO, interannual variations are produced.

Mayr, H. G.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Wave-driven Equatorial Annual Oscillation Induced and Modulated by the Solar Cycle

Our model for the solar cycle (SC) modulation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) produces a hemispherically symmetric 12-month Annual Oscillation (AO) in the zonal winds, which is confined to low latitudes. This Equatorial Annual Oscillation (EAO) is produced by interaction between the anti-symmetric component of SC forcing and the dominant anti-symmetric AO. The EA0 is amplified by the upward propagating small- scale gravity waves (GW), and the oscillation propagates down through the stratosphere like the QBO. The amplitude of the EA0 is relatively small, but its SC modulation contributes significantly to extend the effect to lower altitudes. Although the energy of the EA0 is concentrated at low latitudes, prominent signatures appear in the Polar Regions where the SC produces measurable temperature variations. At lower altitudes, the SC effects are significantly different in the two hemispheres because of the EAO, and due to its GW driven downward propagation the phase of the annual cycle is delayed.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Long-term Evolution of Upper Stratospheric Ozone at Selected Stations of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC)

The long-term evolution of upper stratospheric ozone has been recorded by lidars and microwave radiometers within the ground-based Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC), and by the space-borne Solar Backscatter Ultra-Violet instruments (SBUV), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE), and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). Climatological mean differences between these instruments are typically smaller than 5% between 25 and 50 km. Ozone anomaly time series from all instruments, averaged from 35 to 45 km altitude, track each other very well and typically agree within 3 to 5%. SBUV seems to have a slight positive drift against the other instruments. The corresponding 1979 to 1999 period from a transient simulation by the fully coupled MAECHAM4-CHEM chemistry climate model reproduces many features of the observed anomalies. However, in the upper stratosphere the model shows too low ozone values and too negative ozone trends, probably due to an underestimation of methane and a consequent overestimation of ClO. The combination of all observational data sets provides a very consistent picture, with a long-term stability of 2% or better. Upper stratospheric ozone shows three main features: (1) a decline by 10 to 15% since 1980, due to chemical destruction by chlorine; (2) two to three year fluctuations by 5 to 10%, due to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO); (3) an 11-year oscillation by about 5%, due to the 11-year solar cycle. The 1979 to 1997 ozone trends are larger at the southern mid-latitude station Lauder (45 S), reaching 8%/decade, compared to only about 6%/decade at Table Mountain (35 N), Haute Provence/Bordeaux (approximately equal to 45 N), and Hohenpeissenberg/Bern(approximately equal to 47 N). At Lauder, Hawaii (20 N), Table Mountain, and Haute Provence, ozone residuals after subtraction of QBO- and solar cycle effects have levelled off in recent years, or are even increasing. Assuming a turning point in January 1997, the change of trend is largest at southern mid-latitude Lauder, +11%/decade, compared to +7%/decade at northern mid-latitudes. This points to a beginning recovery of upper stratospheric ozone. However, chlorine levels are still very high and ozone will remain vulnerable. At this point the most northerly mid-latitude station, Hohenpeissenberg/Bern differs from the other stations, and shows much less clear evidence for a beginning recovery, with a change of trend in 1997 by only +3%/decade. In fact, record low upper stratospheric ozone values were observed at Hohenpeissenberg/Bern, and to a lesser degree at Table Mountain and Haute Provence, in the winters 2003/2004 and 2004/2005.

Steinbrecht, W.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Two Types of El Nino Events

This study is the first to identify a robust El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in the Antarctic stratosphere. El Nino events are classified as either conventional "cold tongue" events (positive SST anomalies in the Nino 3 region) or "warm pool" events (positive SST anomalies in the Nino 4 region). The ERA-40, NCEP and MERRA meteorological reanalyses are used to show that the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere responds differently to these two types of El Nino events. Consistent with previous studies, "cold tongue" events do not impact temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere. During "warm pool" El Nino events, the poleward extension and increased strength of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) favor an enhancement of planetary wave activity during the SON season. On average, these conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and a weakening of the Antarctic polar jet in November and December, as compared with neutral ENSO years. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the stratospheric response to "warm pool" El Nino events: the strongest planetary wave driving events are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Variability of Irreversible Poleward Transport in the Lower Stratosphere

The ascent and descent of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a large role in determining the distributions of many constituents in the extratropical lower stratosphere. However, relatively fast, quasi-horizontal transport out of the tropics and polar regions also significantly contribute to determining these distributions. The tropical tape recorder signal assures that there must be outflow from the tropics into the extratropical lower stratosphere. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and state of the polar vortex are known to modulate the transport from the tropical and polar regions, respectively. In this study we examine multiple years of ozone distributions in the extratropical lower stratosphere observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Aura High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS). The distributions are compared with analyses of irreversible, meridional isentropic transport. We show that there is considerable year-to-year seasonal variability in the amount of irreversible transport from the tropics, which is related to both the phase of the QBO and the state of the polar vortex. The reversibility of the transport is consistent with the number of observed breaking waves. The variability of the atmospheric index of refraction in the lower stratosphere is shown to be significantly correlated with the wave breaking and amount of irreversible transport. Finally, we will show that the seasonal extratropical stratosphere to troposphere transport of ozone can be substantially modulated by the amount of irreversible meridional transport in the lower stratosphere and we investigate how observable these differences are in data of tropospheric ozone.

Olsen, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Impact of Warm Pool El Nino Events on Antarctic Ozone

Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific in austral spring and summer. Previous work found an enhancement in planetary wave activity in the South Pacific in austral spring, and a warming of 3-5 K in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during austral summer, in WPEN events as compared with ENSO neutral. In this presentation, we show that weakening of the Antarctic vortex during WPEN affects the structure and magnitude of high-latitude total ozone. We use total ozone data from TOMS and OMI, as well as station data from Argentina and Antarctica, to identify shifts in the longitudinal location of the springtime ozone minimum from its climatological position. In addition, we examine the sensitivity of the WPEN-related ozone response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). We then compare the observed response to WPEN events with Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model, version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) simulations. Two, 50-year time-slice simulations are forced by annually repeating SST and sea ice climatologies, one set representing observed WPEN events and the second set representing neutral ENSO events, in a present-day climate. By comparing the two simulations, we isolate the impact of WPEN events on lower stratospheric ozone, and furthermore, examine the sensitivity of the WPEN ozone response to the phase of the QBO.

Hurwitz, Margaret M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Arctic Vortex in March 2011: A Dynamical Perspective

Despite the record ozone loss observed in March 2011, dynamical conditions in the Arctic stratosphere were unusual but not unprecedented. Weak planetary wave driving in February preceded cold anomalies in t he polar lower stratosphere in March and a relatively late breakup of the Arctic vortex in April. La Nina conditions and the westerly phas e of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were observed in March 201 1. Though these conditions are generally associated with a stronger vortex in mid-winter, the respective cold anomalies do not persist t hrough March. Therefore, the La Nina and QBO-westerly conditions cannot explain the observed cold anomalies in March 2011. In contrast, po sitive sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific may ha ve contributed to the unusually weak tropospheric wave driving and s trong Arctic vortex in late winter 2011.

Hurwitz, Margaret M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Inter-Annual and Decadal Changes in Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone

Ozone data beginning October 2004 from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are used to evaluate the accuracy of the Cloud slicing technique in effort to develop long data records of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and studying their long-term changes. Using this technique, we have produced a 32-year (1979-2010) long record of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone from the combined Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (Toms) and OMI. The analyses of these time series suggest that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominant source of inter-annual changes of 30-40 Dobson Units (DU). Tropospheric ozone also indicates a QBO signal in the peak to peak changes varying from 2 to 7 DU. Decadal changes in global stratospheric ozone indicate a turnaround in ozone loss around mid 1990's with most of these changes occurring in the Northern Hemisphere from the subtropics to high latitudes. The trend results are generally consistent with the prediction of chemistry climate models which include the reduction of ozone destroying substances beginning in the late 1980's mandated by the Montreal Protocol.

Ziemke, Jr. R.↗