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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic symplectic reduced-order modeling for model-form uncertainty quantification in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles

Here, this work focuses on the representation of model-form uncertainties in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles. In prior contributions, the modeling of such uncertainties was formalized and applied to quantify the impact of, and the error generated by, pair-potential selection in the microcanonical ensemble (NVE). In this work, we extend this formulation and present a linear-subspace reduced-order model for the canonical (NVT) and isobaric (NPT) ensembles. The symplectic reduced-order basis is randomized on the tangent space of the Stiefel manifold to provide topological relationships and capture model-form uncertainty. Using the Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS), we assess the relevance of these stochastic reduced-order atomistic models on canonical problems involving a Lennard-Jones fluid and an argon crystal melt.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Personalized and uncertainty-aware coronary hemodynamics simulations: From Bayesian estimation to improved multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Non-invasive simulations of coronary hemodynamics have improved clinical risk stratification and treatment outcomes for coronary artery disease, compared to relying on anatomical imaging alone. However, simulations typically use empirical approaches to distribute total coronary flow amongst the arteries in the coronary tree, which ignores patient variability, the presence of disease, and other clinical factors. Further, uncertainty in the clinical data often remains unaccounted for in the modeling pipeline. We present an end-to-end uncertainty-aware pipeline to (1) personalize coronary flow simulations by incorporating vessel-specific coronary flows as well as cardiac function; and (2) predict clinical and biomechanical quantities of interest with improved precision, while accounting for uncertainty in the clinical data. We assimilate patient-specific measurements of myocardial blood flow from clinical CT myocardial perfusion imaging to estimate branch-specific coronary artery flows. Simulated noise in the clinical data is used to estimate the joint posterior distributions of the model parameters using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally, the posterior predictive distribution for the relevant quantities of interest is determined using a new approach combining multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation with non-linear, data-driven dimensionality reduction. This leads to improved correlations between high- and low-fidelity model outputs. Our framework accurately recapitulates clinically measured cardiac function as well as branch-specific coronary flows under measurement noise uncertainty. We observe substantial reductions in confidence intervals for estimated quantities of interest compared to single-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation and state-of-the-art multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods. This holds especially true for quantities of interest that showed limited correlation between the low- and high-fidelity model predictions. In addition, the proposed multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimators are significantly cheaper to compute than traditional estimators, under a specified confidence level or variance. The proposed pipeline for personalized and uncertainty-aware predictions of coronary hemodynamics is based on routine clinical measurements and recently developed techniques for CT myocardial perfusion imaging. The proposed pipeline offers significant improvements in precision and reduction in computational cost.

Bayesian parameter estimation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian prior construction for uncertainty quantification in first-principles statistical mechanics

First-principles statistical mechanics enables the prediction of thermodynamic and kinetic properties of materials, but is computationally expensive. Many approaches require surrogate models to calculate energies within Monte Carlo or molecular dynamics simulations. Inexpensive surrogates such as cluster expansions enable otherwise intractable calculations by interpolating data from higher accuracy methods, such as Density Functional Theory (DFT). Surrogate models introduce uncertainty into downstream calculations, in addition to any uncertainty inherent to DFT calculations. Bayesian frameworks address this by quantifying uncertainty and incorporating expert knowledge through priors. However, constructing effective priors remains challenging. This work introduces and describes practical strategies for building Bayesian cluster expansions, focusing on basis truncation, hyperparameter selection, and ground state replication. We analyze multiple basis truncation schemes, compare cross-validation to the evidence-approximation for hyperparameter optimization, and provide methods to find and enforce ground-state-preserving models through priors. Additionally, we compare the uncertainties between different approximations to DFT (LDA, PBE, SCAN) against the uncertainty introduced with the use of cluster expansion surrogate models. These approaches are demonstrated on the BCC Li x Mg 1-x and Li x Al 1-x alloys, which are both of interest for solid-state Li batteries. Our results provide guidelines for constructing and utilizing Bayesian cluster expansions, thereby improving the transparency of materials modeling. Furthermore, the approaches and insights developed in this work can be transferred to a wide range of cluster expansion surrogate models, including the atomic cluster expansion and related machine-learned interatomic potential architectures.

Alloy theory↗
DOE OSTI2024

a priori uncertainty quantification of reacting turbulence closure models using Bayesian neural networks

While many physics-based closure model forms have been posited for the sub-filter scale (SFS) in large eddy simulation (LES), vast amounts of data available from direct numerical simulations (DNS) create opportunities to leverage data-driven modeling techniques. Albeit flexible, data-driven models still depend on the dataset and the functional form of the model chosen. Increased adoption of such models requires reliable uncertainty estimates both in the data-informed and out-of-distribution regimes. Here, in this work, we employ Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to capture both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in a reacting flow model. In particular, we model the filtered progress variable scalar dissipation rate which plays a key role in the dynamics of turbulent premixed flames. We demonstrate that BNN models can provide unique insights about the structure of uncertainty of the data-driven closure models. We also propose a method for the incorporation of out-of-distribution information in a BNN, which can be used for out-of-distribution query detection. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated by a priori evaluation on a dataset consisting of a variety of flame conditions and fuels.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The tensor-train stochastic finite volume method for uncertainty quantification

The stochastic finite volume method offers an efficient one-pass approach for assessing uncertainty in hyperbolic conservation laws. Still, it struggles with the curse of dimensionality when dealing with multiple stochastic variables. Here, we introduce the stochastic finite volume method within the tensor-train framework to counteract this limitation. This integration, however, comes with its own set of difficulties, mainly due to the propensity for shock formation in hyperbolic systems. To overcome these issues, we have developed a tensor-train-adapted stochastic finite volume method that employs a global WENO reconstruction, making it suitable for such complex systems. This approach represents the first step in designing tensor-train techniques for hyperbolic systems and conservation laws involving shocks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation

Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.

Intermodal freight transportation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of Ethane Dehydrogenation and Hydrogenolysis on Pt(111), Pt(211), and Pt(100): Bayesian Quantification and Correction of DFT-Based Enthalpic and Entropic Uncertainties

Computational investigations of heterogeneously catalyzed reactions using density functional theory (DFT) are often inaccurate, largely due to uncertainties in the choice of DFT functional (enthalpic uncertainty) and approximations for modeling adsorbate movement along the catalyst surface (entropic uncertainty). This work illustrates that both uncertainties are significant in the investigation of ethane dehydrogenation (EDH) and hydrogenolysis on Pt catalysts by considering the complete deconstruction of ethane on Pt(111), Pt(211), and Pt(100) using microkinetic modeling (MKM). Hence, this work uses both noncalibrated and Bayesian-calibrated MKMs to quantify and correct inaccuracies in macroscopic properties due to both uncertainties. A Bayesian approach to the correction of entropic errors was introduced using a “Modified Fermi Function (MFF)” to calibrate between the two bounds of entropy represented by the harmonic oscillator (HO) and free translator (FT) approximations. Regardless of enthalpic and entropic uncertainties, all three surfaces are capable of ethane activation; however, Pt(211) was found to be the most active and is largely responsible for methane production. Next, Pt(111) is largely responsible for acetylene production, and Pt(100) has the highest ethylene selectivity but is most susceptible to coking. By comparison of different calibrated models, the FT entropy approximation was found to better describe EDH under typical experimental conditions. Statistical evidence was found to support Pt(111) as the active site for EDH, assuming that one single site is responsible for the chemistry. On the three surfaces, competing second dehydrogenations to CH 2 CH 2 and CH 3 CH were observed as well as isomerization of CH 3 CH back to CH 2 CH 2 and deeper dehydrogenation of CH 3 CH. In conclusion, C–C cleavage was found to largely proceed via the CH 3 C intermediate on Pt(100) and Pt(111), while on Pt(211), it was via both CHC and CH 3 C.

Bayesian model selection↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification for Stochastic Hyperbolic Conservation Laws

Here, we propose a predictor-corrector adaptive method for the study of hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs) under uncertainty. Constructed around the framework of stochastic finite volume (SFV) methods, our approach circumvents sampling schemes or simulation ensembles while also preserving fundamental properties, in particular hyperbolicity of the resulting systems and conservation of the discrete solutions. Furthermore, we augment the existing SFV theory with a priori convergence results for statistical quantities, in particular push-forward densities, which we demonstrate through numerical experiments. By linking refinement indicators to regions of the physical and stochastic spaces, we drive anisotropic refinements of the discretizations, introducing new degrees of freedom where deemed profitable. To illustrate our proposed method, we consider a series of numerical examples for nonlinear hyperbolic PDEs based on Burgers’ and Euler’s equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistically-driven Experimental Design to Improve Reference-free Quantification of Small Molecules by Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry

Non-targeted analysis of small molecules and metabolites in unknown, complex samples using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry remains challenging. One of the main bottlenecks is the extensive unannotated regions of metabolomics mass spectrometry data, resulting in knowledge gaps. Small molecule annotation in mass spectrometry data has conventionally relied on reference standards and libraries for compound identification and confirmation, which can constrain compound identification to those molecules already known, thus limiting the ability to discover new knowledge and new markers. Retention time prediction can facilitate and expedite unknown compound identification in non-targeted analysis of complex metabolomics samples. Additionally, accurate retention time predictions can also inform sample mixture design for LC-MS/MS analyses. However, current machine learning-based methods for retention time prediction are typically developed for specific chromatographic platforms and are not generalizable across scales. And while technologies and methods to improve reference-free metabolite identification for more comprehensive annotation of unknowns has received much attention, development of the same for quantitation without reference standards has been much more limited, despite its importance in toxicological, environmental, food safety, forensics, and clinical applications. We believe that a reference-free quantitation strategy that exploits mass spectrometry data already collected for reference-free identification can provide much more insight on unknowns, and move the metabolomics field for more complete unknowns characterization. As such, we pursue two efforts to improve upon current state-of-the-art methods in non-targeted analysis: (1) machine learning-based retention time prediction and (2) statistical design of experiments framework for reference-free quantitation. In this work, we develop and demonstrate (1) a generalizable retention time prediction capability across chromatographic conditions and scales, and (2) a statistical design-based framework for response factor contribution elucidation and reference-free quantitation. Evaluation of our retention time prediction model, PrediToR, showed approximately 24% improvement over current models, and we observed approximately 10X improvement in concentration estimation accuracy from our statistical design-based response factor model over a primarily ionization efficiency-based model. We expect that future efforts to improve upon these new capabilities will further advance non-targeted analysis of small molecules towards truly reference-free metabolomics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterization and effects of impurities on carbonate quantification in heterogenous matrices

Mineral carbonation simulates a natural weathering phenomena by breaking down silicates and oxides to form Ca & Mg carbonates. Various mineralization methods have been demonstrated as a potential technique to improve the quality of slags and tailings through neutralization and stabilization of problematic species to yield a product better suited for use in concrete. This study aims to characterize, quantify and analyze carbonates in various carbonated products such as mineralized CaCO 3 , CO 2 mineralized Steel Slags and Mine Tailings. More than 10 samples were analyzed for carbonate measurement and verification from industrial and academic partners that pioneer commercial CO 2 mineralization technologies. The samples were characterized primarily by using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Thermogravimetric Analyses (TGA), and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) to gain insights into CaCO 3 content. A baseline characterization of lab-grade CaCO 3 and MgCO 3 also revealed important considerations for CaCO 3 measurement using TGA alone. The experiments using synthetic lab-grade samples also revealed that the presence of MgCO 3 /MgO can accelerate the decomposition of CaCO 3 and thus can affect measurement parameters. Lab-grade CaCO 3 samples dosed into steel slag and mine tailing also showed significant deviation in their decomposition behavior. These insights are used to inform the development of a standardized protocol for the measurement and verification of carbonate-bearing products.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Construction Cost Reduction Pathways

High construction costs have plagued recent nuclear projects and they hamper the widespread deployment of nuclear technology. The Nuclear Cost Reduction Tool is a plant economic framework that quantifies the impact that various plant design and construction attributes have on construction costs and cost overruns and shows the positive effects of learning over a series of deployments. However, a downside of the current model is that all model outputs and capabilities are deterministic. To provide a more comprehensive view, this study evaluated the impact of model parameter uncertainty through a sensitivity analysis applied to 18 model parameters. This approach quantified the impact of model uncertainty on the output variables of Net Overnight Capital Cost (Net OCC), Construction Duration (CD), and Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Monte Carlo analysis revealed uncertainty distributions for these variables, showing that absolute uncertainty decreases over a series of deployments. A local sensitivity analysis showed that even small parameter perturbations (5%) can have a significant impact on project execution, highlighting areas that could reduce costs by billions across an order book of plants. The results of this study have improved the understanding of the model and identified the most impactful model parameters and construction attributes.

Levelized Cost of Electricity↗
DOE OSTI2025

Propane Activation on Pt Electrodes at Room Temperature: Quantification of Adsorbate Identity and Coverage

Abstract C−H bond activation is the first step in manufacturing chemical products from readily available light alkane feedstock and typically proceeds via carbon‐intensive thermal processes. The ongoing emphasis on decarbonization via electrification motivates low‐temperature electrochemical alternatives that could lead to sustainable chemicals production. Platinum (Pt) electrocatalysts have shown activity towards reacting alkanes; however, little is known about propane electrocatalytic activation and conditions suitable for enabling selective oxidation to valuable products. Herein, we utilize a combination of electrochemical mass spectrometry (ECMS) and density functional theory (DFT) calculations to elucidate the potential dependence of propane activation on Pt electrocatalysts. Results show a strong dependence of adsorption on the applied potential in room‐temperature aqueous acidic electrolyte, with a maximum coverage of propane‐derived adsorbates at 0.30 V vs RHE. Using charge deconvolution and deuterated experiments, the mechanism of adsorption was elucidated, and C 3 H 2 * was determined as the average dehydrogenated propane‐derived adsorbate species. DFT calculations further corroborate these results, showing that the formation of deeply dehydrogenated species is energetically accessible at room temperature. The combined theoretical and experimental findings yield insights for selective activation of paraffinic C−H bonds at room temperature, aqueous conditions—a critical step towards decarbonized chemical manufacturing.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of modeling uncertainty in the Rayleigh damping model

Understanding and accurately characterizing energy dissipation mechanisms in civil structures during earthquakes is an important element of seismic assessment and design. The most commonly used model is attributed to Rayleigh. This paper proposes a systematic approach to quantify the uncertainty associated with Rayleigh's damping model. Bayesian calibration with embedded model error is employed to treat the coefficients of the Rayleigh model as random variables using modal damping ratios. Through a numerical example, we illustrate how this approach works and how the calibrated model can address modeling uncertainty associated with the Rayleigh damping model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data driven discovery and quantification of hyperspectral leaf reflectance phenotypes across a maize diversity panel

Abstract Estimates of plant traits derived from hyperspectral reflectance data have the potential to efficiently substitute for traits, which are time or labor intensive to manually score. Typical workflows for estimating plant traits from hyperspectral reflectance data employ supervised classification models that can require substantial ground truth datasets for training. We explore the potential of an unsupervised approach, autoencoders, to extract meaningful traits from plant hyperspectral reflectance data using measurements of the reflectance of 2151 individual wavelengths of light from the leaves of maize ( Zea mays ) plants harvested from 1658 field plots in a replicated field trial. A subset of autoencoder‐derived variables exhibited significant repeatability, indicating that a substantial proportion of the total variance in these variables was explained by difference between maize genotypes, while other autoencoder variables appear to capture variation resulting from changes in leaf reflectance between different batches of data collection. Several of the repeatable latent variables were significantly correlated with other traits scored from the same maize field experiment, including one autoencoder‐derived latent variable (LV8) that predicted plant chlorophyll content modestly better than a supervised model trained on the same data. In at least one case, genome‐wide association study hits for variation in autoencoder‐derived variables were proximal to genes with known or plausible links to leaf phenotypes expected to alter hyperspectral reflectance. In aggregate, these results suggest that an unsupervised, autoencoder‐based approach can identify meaningful and genetically controlled variation in high‐dimensional, high‐throughput phenotyping data and link identified variables back to known plant traits of interest.

Tross, Michael C.↗