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At least 163 records · Page 9

How far we are from the complete knowledge: Complexity of knowledge acquisition in Dempster-Shafer approach

When a knowledge base represents the experts' uncertainty, then it is reasonable to ask how far we are from the complete knowledge, that is, how many more questions do we have to ask (to these experts, to nature by means of experimenting, etc) in order to attain the complete knowledge. Of course, since we do not know what the real world is, we cannot get the precise number of questions from the very beginning: it is quite possible, for example, that we ask the right question first and thus guess the real state of the world after the first question. So we have to estimate this number and use this estimate as a natural measure of completeness for a given knowledge base. We give such estimates for Dempster-Shafer formalism. Namely, we show that this average number of questions can be obtained by solving a simple mathematical optimization problem. In principle this characteristic is not always sufficient to express the fact that sometimes we have more knowledge. For example, it has the same value if we have an event with two possible outcomes and nothing else is known, and if there is an additional knowledge that the probability of every outcome is 0.5. We'll show that from the practical viewpoint this is not a problem, because the difference between the necessary number of questions in both cases is practically negligible.

Chokr, Bassam A.↗

High-resolution terrain map from multiple sensor data

The authors present 3-D vision techniques for incrementally building an accurate 3-D representation of rugged terrain using multiple sensors. They have developed the locus method to model the rugged terrain. The locus method exploits sensor geometry to efficiently build a terrain representation from multiple sensor data. The locus method is used to estimate the vehicle position in the digital elevation map (DEM) by matching a sequence of range images with the DEM. Experimental results from large-scale real and synthetic terrains demonstrate the feasibility and power of the 3-D mapping techniques for rugged terrain. In real world experiments, a composite terrain map was built by merging 125 real range images. Using synthetic range images, a composite map of 150 m was produced from 159 images. With the proposed system, mobile robots operating in rugged environments can build accurate terrain models from multiple sensor data.

Kweon, In S.↗

Collective Intelligence

Many systems of self-interested agents have an associated performance criterion that rates the dynamic behavior of the overall system. This chapter presents an introduction to the science of such systems. Formally, collectives are defined as any system having the following two characteristics: First, the system must contain one or more agents each of which we view as trying to maximize an associated private utility; second, the system must have an associated world utility function that rates the possible behaviors of that overall system. In practice, collectives are often very large, distributed, and support little, if any, centralized communication and control, although those characteristics are not part of their formal definition. A naturally occurring example of a collective is a human economy. One can identify the agents and their private utilities as the human individuals in the economy and the associated personal rewards they are each trying to maximize. One could then identify the world utility as the time average of the gross domestic product. ("World utility" per se is not a construction internal to a human economy, but rather something defined from the outside.) To achieve high world utility it is necessary to avoid having the agents work at cross-purposes lest phenomena like liquidity traps or the Tragedy of the Commons (TOC) occur, in which agents' individually pursuing their private utilities lowers world utility. The obvious way to avoid such phenomena is by modifying the agents utility functions to be "aligned" with the world utility. This can be done via punitive legislation. A real-world example of an attempt to do this was the creation of antitrust regulations designed to prevent monopolistic practices.

Wolpert, David H.↗

Technology Development, Implementation, and Assessment: K-16 Pre-Service, In-Service, and Distance Learning Initiatives

This summer 22 kindergarten through 8th grade teachers attended a 3-week Teacher Enhancement Institute (TEI) at NASA Langley Research Center. TEI is funded by NASA Education Division and is a collaborative effort between NASA Langley's Office of Education and Christopher Newport University. Selected teacher teams were drawn from Langley's 5-state precollege service region, which includes Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia. The goal of TEI was for teachers to learn aeronautics and the broad application of science and technology through a problem-based learning (PBL) strategy. PBL is an instructional method using a real world problem, also known as an ill-structured problem, as the context for an in-depth investigation. Most real life problems are ill-structured, as are all the really important social, political and scientific problems. The teachers were immediately immersed in an ill-structured problem to design a communication strategy for the White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security to educate and disseminate aviation information to the general public. Specifically, the communication strategy was to focus on aeronautics principles, technology and design associated with US general aviation revitalization and aviation safety programs. The presented problem addressed NASA's strategic outcome to widely communicate the content, relevancy and excitement of its missions and discoveries to the general population. Further, the PBL scenario addressed the technological challenges being taken up by NASA to revolutionize air travel and the way in which aircraft are designed, built, and operated. It also addressed getting people and freight safely and efficiently to any location in the world at a reasonable cost. With a "real" need-to-know problem facing them, the teachers set out to gather information and to better understand the problem using inquiry-based and scientific methods. The learning in this aeronautics scenario was driven by the direction taken by participants. With the support of the TEI faculty, the teachers quickly identified NASA Langley researchers that served as consultants to help solve the problem. To achieve their goal, the teacher teams developed lesson plans for elementary and middle school students, wrote a newspaper, published a brochure to educate the general public, constructed games for children of all ages, and produced a video. As a second problem, the TEI participants will design their own aeronautic lesson plan and immerse their 1997-98 school year students in the problem. The problem is for the students "to create a traveling hands-on, minds-on aeronautics museum exhibit created for children by children." As a culminating activity, the Virginia Air and Space Center in Hampton, VA, will set up a special display of the exhibits in the Summer 1998. The TEI faculty will visit each TEI teacher's classroom during the academic school year to observe the implementation of the unit. In addition to the classroom observations, electronic follow-up sessions will be conducted during the school year to support the teachers' efforts in developing their PBL units to integrate technology in math and science instruction. These sessions eill be conducted using the Internet. Teachers will be connected through a chat-line to share ideas, ask questions, and generate solutions.

Petersen, Richard↗

Predictive sufficiency and the use of stored internal state

In all embedded computing systems, some delay exists between sensing and acting. By choosing an action based on sensed data, a system is essentially predicting that there will be no significant changes in the world during this delay. However, the dynamic and uncertain nature of the real world can make these predictions incorrect, and thus, a system may execute inappropriate actions. Making systems more reactive by decreasing the gap between sensing and action leaves less time for predictions to err, but still provides no principled assurance that they will be correct. Using the concept of predictive sufficiency described in this paper, a system can prove that its predictions are valid, and that it will never execute inappropriate actions. In the context of our CIRCA system, we also show how predictive sufficiency allows a system to guarantee worst-case response times to changes in its environment. Using predictive sufficiency, CIRCA is able to build real-time reactive control plans which provide a sound basis for performance guarantees that are unavailable with other reactive systems.

Musliner, David J.↗

Autonomous Satellite Command and Control Through the World Wide Web

The Automated Space System Experimental Testbed (ASSET) system is a simple yet comprehensive real-world operations network being developed. Phase 3 of the ASSET Project was January-December 1997 and is the subject of this report. This phase permitted SSDL and its project partners to expand the ASSET system in a variety of ways. These added capabilities included the advancement of ground station capabilities, the adaptation of spacecraft on-board software, and the expansion of capabilities of the ASSET management algorithms. Specific goals of Phase 3 were: (1) Extend Web-based goal-level commanding for both the payload PI and the spacecraft engineer. (2) Support prioritized handling of multiple (PIs) Principle Investigators as well as associated payload experimenters. (3) Expand the number and types of experiments supported by the ASSET system and its associated spacecraft. (4) Implement more advanced resource management, modeling and fault management capabilities that integrate the space and ground segments of the space system hardware. (5) Implement a beacon monitoring test. (6) Implement an experimental blackboard controller for space system management. (7) Further define typical ground station developments required for Internet-based remote control and for full system automation of the PI-to-spacecraft link. Each of those goals are examined. Significant sections of this report were also published as a conference paper. Several publications produced in support of this grant are included as attachments. Titles include: 1) Experimental Initiatives in Space System Operations; 2) The ASSET Client Interface: Balancing High Level Specification with Low Level Control; 3) Specifying Spacecraft Operations At The Product/Service Level; 4) The Design of a Highly Configurable, Reusable Operating System for Testbed Satellites; 5) Automated Health Operations For The Sapphire Spacecraft; 6) Engineering Data Summaries for Space Missions; and 7) Experiments In Automated Health Assessment And Notification For The Sapphire Microsatellite.

Cantwell, Brian↗

Start Up Application Concerns with Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs)

This note is being published to improve the visibility of this subject, as we continue to see problems surface in designs, as well as to add additional information to the previously published note for design engineers. The original application note focused on designing systems with no single point failures using Actel Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) for critical applications. Included in that note were the basic principles of operation of the Actel FPGA and a discussion of potential single-point failures. The note also discussed the issue of startup transients for that class of device. It is unfortunate that we continue to see some design problems using these devices. This note will focus on the startup properties of certain electronic components, in general, and current Actel FPGAs, in particular. Devices that are "power-on friendly" are currently being developed by Actel, as a variant of the new SX series of FPGAs. In the ideal world, electronic components would behave much differently than they do in the real world, The chain, of course, starts with the power supply. Ideally, the voltage will immediately rise to a stable V(sub cc) level, of course, it does not. Aside from practical design considerations, inrush current limits of certain capacitors must be observed and the power supply's output may be intentionally slew rate limited to prevent a large current spike on the system power bus. In any event, power supply rise time may range from less than I msec to 100 msec or more.

Katz, Richard B.↗

Interactive autonomy and robotic skills

Current concepts of robot-supported operations for space laboratories (payload servicing, inspection, repair, and ORU exchange) are mainly based on the concept of 'interactive autonomy' which implies autonomous behavior of the robot according to predefined timelines, predefined sequences of elementary robot operations and within predefined world models supplying geometrical and other information for parameter instantiation on the one hand, and the ability to override and change the predefined course of activities by human intervention on the other hand. Although in principle a very powerful and useful concept, in practice the confinement of the robot to the abstract world models and predefined activities appears to reduce the robot's stability within real world uncertainties and its applicability to non-predefined parts of the world, calling for frequent corrective interaction by the operator, which in itself may be tedious and time-consuming. Methods are presented to improve this situation by incorporating 'robotic skills' into the concept of interactive autonomy.

Kellner, A.↗

Verification and Validation Plan for Flight Performance Requirements on the CEV Parachute Assembly System

The Crew Exploration Vehicle Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) is engaged in a multi-year design and test campaign aimed at qualifying a parachute recovery system for human use on the Orion Spacecraft. Orion has parachute flight performance requirements that will ultimately be verified through the use of Monte Carlo multi-degree of freedom flight simulations. These simulations will be anchored by real world flight test data and iteratively improved to provide a closer approximation to the real physics observed in the inherently chaotic inflation and steady state flight of the CPAS parachutes. This paper will examine the processes necessary to verify the flight performance requirements of the human rated spacecraft. The focus will be on the requirements verification and model validation planned on CPAS.

Morris, Aaron L.↗

Issues related to line-oriented flight training

The use of a training simulator along with carefully structured, detailed, line trip scenarios was envisioned by NASA as a means of providing a controllable, repeatable way to observe line crews in a highly realistic simulation of their working environment and obtain better understanding operationally significant human factors problems and issues. Relevant research done by the agency and the results of full-mission simulation scenarios revealed potential implications for flight training. Aspects to be considered in creating training programs closely related to the actual line environment with a total crew application in real world incident experiences include: (1) operational, environmental, equipment, and crew problems in scenario design; (2) real time line oriented flight training operation; (3) performance assessment and debriefing; (4) instructor qualification and training; and (5) other issues such as ub un initial, transition, and upgrade training; procedures developent and evaluation, and equipment evaluation.

Lauber, J. K.↗

The volcanic signal in Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model simulations

Transient calculations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model for the climatic signal of volcanic eruptions are analyzed. By compositing the output for two different volcanoes for scenario A and five different volcanoes for scenario B, the natural variability is suppressed and the volcanic signals are extracted. Significant global mean surface air temperature cooling and precipitation reduction are found for several years following the eruptions, with larger changes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than in the Southern Hemisphere. The global-average temperature response lasts for more than four years, but the precipitation response disappears after three years. The largest cooling in the model occurs in the NH summer of the year after spring eruptions. Significant zonal-average temperature reductions begin in the tropics immediately after the eruptions and extend to 45 deg S - 45 deg N in the year after the eruptions. In the second year, cooling is still seen from 30 deg S to 30 deg N. Because of the low variability in this model as compared to the real world, these signals may appear more significant here than they would by attempting to isolate them using real data. The results suggest that volcanoes can enhance the drought in the Sahel. No evidence was found that stratospheric aerosols from the low-atitude volcanic eruptions can trigger El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in this model.

Robock, Alan↗

NASA Advanced Supercomputing Facility Expansion

The NASA Advanced Supercomputing (NAS) Division enables advances in high-end computing technologies and in modeling and simulation methods to tackle some of the toughest science and engineering challenges facing NASA today. The name "NAS" has long been associated with leadership and innovation throughout the high-end computing (HEC) community. We play a significant role in shaping HEC standards and paradigms, and provide leadership in the areas of large-scale InfiniBand fabrics, Lustre open-source filesystems, and hyperwall technologies. We provide an integrated high-end computing environment to accelerate NASA missions and make revolutionary advances in science. Pleiades, a petaflop-scale supercomputer, is used by scientists throughout the U.S. to support NASA missions, and is ranked among the most powerful systems in the world. One of our key focus areas is in modeling and simulation to support NASA's real-world engineering applications and make fundamental advances in modeling and simulation methods.

NASA↗

Flight training for Space Shuttle missions

The training performed for flights of the Space Shuttle is intensive and extremely complicated. The training is totally dependent on computer generated training situations in both cockpit simulations and in integrated simulations between the simulators and the Mission Control Center (MCC). These simulations form a complex set of dress rehearsals of the actual spaceflight allowing the participants to address problems in a real world situation and utilize problem solving rationale just as they will be called upon to do during the real flight. The benefits of this type of training have been demonstrated during the flights of the Shuttle as individual flight controllers and whole teams have been tested by various untoward situations. This system of integrated simulation and training, more complex than ever, will be continued in use in the future using even more intricate man-machine interactions required to initialize, control, and operate it.

Hughes, F. E.↗

GIS Data Based Automatic High-Fidelity 3D Road Network Modeling

3D road models are widely used in many computer applications such as racing games and driving simulations_ However, almost all high-fidelity 3D road models were generated manually by professional artists at the expense of intensive labor. There are very few existing methods for automatically generating 3D high-fidelity road networks, especially those existing in the real world. This paper presents a novel approach thai can automatically produce 3D high-fidelity road network models from real 2D road GIS data that mainly contain road. centerline in formation. The proposed method first builds parametric representations of the road centerlines through segmentation and fitting . A basic set of civil engineering rules (e.g., cross slope, superelevation, grade) for road design are then selected in order to generate realistic road surfaces in compliance with these rules. While the proposed method applies to any types of roads, this paper mainly addresses automatic generation of complex traffic interchanges and intersections which are the most sophisticated elements in the road networks

Wang, Jie↗

Design study to simulate the development of a commercial freight transportation system

The Notre Dame Aerospace Engineering senior class was divided into six design teams. A request for proposals (RFP) asking for the design of a remotely piloted vehicle (RPV) was given to the class, and each design team was responsible for designing, developing, producing, and presenting an RPV concept. The RFP called for the design of commercial freight transport RPV. The RFP provided a description of a fictitious world called 'Aeroworld'. Aeroworld's characteristics were scaled to provide the same types of challenges for RPV design that the real world market provides for the design of commercial aircraft. Fuel efficiency, range and payload capabilities, production and maintenance costs, and profitability are a few of the challenges that were addressed in this course. Each design team completed their project over the course of a semester by designing and flight testing a prototype, freight-carrying remotely piloted vehicle.

Batill, Stephen M.↗

Validation through Full-scale Flight Exploration

Full scale flight test forces designers to address real-world issues. Provides high-visibility demonstration. Adds credibility that adaptation technology can be a viable design option. Helps to separate the real from the imagined.

Bosworth, John T.↗

Unforced decadal fluctuations in a coupled model of the atmosphere and ocean mixed layer

Global average temperature in a 100-year control run of a model used for greenhouse gas response simulations showed low-frequency natural variability comparable in magnitude to that observed over the last 100 years. The model variability was found to be barotropic in the atmosphere, and located in the tropical strip with largest values near the equator in the Pacific. The model variations were traced to complex, low-frequency interactions between the meridional sea surface temperature gradients in the eastern equatorial Pacific, clouds at both high and low levels, and features of the tropical atmospheric circulation. The variations in these and other model parameters appear to oscillate between two limiting climate states. The physical scenario accounting for the oscillations on decadal time scales is almost certainly not found in the real world on shorter time scales due to limited resolution and the omission of key physics (e.g., equatorial ocean dynamics) in the model. The real message is that models with dynamical limitations can still produce significant long-term variability. Only a thorough physical diagnosis of such simulations and comparisons with decadal-length data sets will allow one to decide if faith in the model results is, or is not, warranted.

Barnett, T. P.↗

Advancing Data Assimilation in Operational Hydrologic Forecasting: Progresses, Challenges, and Emerging Opportunities

Data assimilation (DA) holds considerable potential for improving hydrologic predictions as demonstrated in numerous research studies. However, advances in hydrologic DA research have not been adequately or timely implemented in operational forecast systems to improve the skill of forecasts for better informed real-world decision making. This is due in part to a lack of mechanisms to properly quantify the uncertainty in observations and forecast models in real-time forecasting situations and to conduct the merging of data and models in a way that is adequately efficient and transparent to operational forecasters. The need for effective DA of useful hydrologic data into the forecast process has become increasingly recognized in recent years. This motivated a hydrologic DA workshop in Delft, the Netherlands in November 2010, which focused on advancing DA in operational hydrologic forecasting and water resources management. As an outcome of the workshop, this paper reviews, in relevant detail, the current status of DA applications in both hydrologic research and operational practices, and discusses the existing or potential hurdles and challenges in transitioning hydrologic DA research into cost-effective operational forecasting tools, as well as the potential pathways and newly emerging opportunities for overcoming these challenges. Several related aspects are discussed, including (1) theoretical or mathematical aspects in DA algorithms, (2) the estimation of different types of uncertainty, (3) new observations and their objective use in hydrologic DA, (4) the use of DA for real-time control of water resources systems, and (5) the development of community-based, generic DA tools for hydrologic applications. It is recommended that cost-effective transition of hydrologic DA from research to operations should be helped by developing community-based, generic modeling and DA tools or frameworks, and through fostering collaborative efforts among hydrologic modellers, DA developers, and operational forecasters.

forecasting↗