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At least 163 records · Page 9

Numerical simulation of involute-plate research reactor flow behavior using RANS, LES and DNS

This paper investigates the flow behavior of involute-plate research reactors by performing Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes simulation (RANS), Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) of the channel flow between fuel plates. By modeling turbulence with different numerical approaches, this study provides data with three levels of fidelity. For the RANS simulation, three widely used turbulence models, i.e., k-ε, k-ω, Reynolds Stress Turbulence model (RST) are applied by using the commercial CFD code STAR-CCM +. For LES and DNS, the open-source CFD code, Nek5000, is used given its outstanding scalability on High Performance Computer (HPC) and high-order technique. The results from RANS simulations are compared with that from LES and DNS for benchmarking. Both macroscale parameters and turbulence statistics, such as velocity magnitude, lateral velocity and turbulence kinetic energy, are presented and analyzed. The results from RANS simulation achieve good agreement with LES and DNS on velocity and turbulence kinetic energy prediction. The RST turbulence model predicts the most similar flow pattern of lateral velocity as compared to LES and DNS. The Lambda-2 (λ2) criterion with a reasonable threshold is used to demonstrate the instantaneous vortices distribution in the involute channel from both LES and DNS calculation. The DNS simulation captures more detailed turbulence especially near the corner, which explains the discrepancy between LES and DNS results near the corner. The normalized RMS error are defined and calculated to assess the performance of those turbulence models. The RST model captures the anisotropic feature of turbulence, which enable it to outperform other turbulence models for predicting the flow behavior in an involute channel. Although some discrepancies are found between LES and DNS results in the corner, the overall deviations between LES and DNS are found to be small. In conclusion, given that the computational cost of DNS calculation is an order of magnitude higher, using LES data for benchmarking RANS model is a cost-effective approach.

DNS↗

Survey of prospective techniques for molten salt reactor feed monitoring

Safeguards verification measurements of nuclear material content in fresh fuel salt for liquid-fueled molten salt reactors (MSRs) are likely to be required as part of nuclear material accountancy for International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. Here, this paper presents a comprehensive review and evaluation of 18 potential candidate techniques to quantify total uranium and 235 U for input accountancy measurements for liquid-fueled MSRs. As part of an overall screening and down-selection effort to identify the most promising techniques for further development for an MSR feed monitoring system, this paper defines eight figures of merit (FOMs): reasonably achievable measurement uncertainty, measurement time required, capital cost, burden upon the facility operator, maintenance intensity, technological maturity, human capital requirements for operation, and whether the technique introduces a path for potential material removal. Each candidate technique is then evaluated across these FOMs to identify the techniques with the highest potential for future development for fresh fuel accountancy measurements in MSRs. Our findings indicate that no single technique or combination thereof currently has the requisite technological maturity for immediate implementation in nuclear material accountancy at a liquid-fueled MSR facility. While several promising techniques are identified, there is a critical lack of experimental data for most systems in the context of molten salt applications.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Dynamic response of a freely rotating butterfly valve in the advanced test reactor − dynamic coefficients modeling

Here, in evaluating the water hammer issue pertaining to the primary-coolant-regulating butterfly valve in the Advanced Test Reactor, the dynamic fluid body interaction (DFBI) approach was implemented in the analysis covered in Part I. Although DFBI modeling accurately and simultaneously solved the dynamic motion of the valve’s disk along with the flow field of the surrounding fluid, it shed little light on the reason behind such motion. For Part II, the reacting torque of the fluid on the disk was decomposed into representations of the dynamic coefficients in terms of stiffness, damping, and added mass. These were evaluated via simulations with steady-state static (stiffness), constant angular speed (damping), and variable angular speed (added mass) disks. Substituting the dynamic coefficients into Newton’s second law enabled the response trajectories to be obtained. Stable (by average) and unstable equilibrium positions and thrust tendencies of the valve were determined based on the stiffness coefficient (or static torque), the response amplitude was dampened or enlarged by the damping coefficient (minorly affected by added mass), and the response frequency was altered by the damping and added mass coefficients. Although the dynamic coefficient approach renders slightly different trajectories, due to the averaging effect of the torque in comparison to the DFBI method, the overall trend of the response aligns with the DFBI simulation, thus confirming the conclusion in Part I that a fix to the current butterfly valve is necessary.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Situational awareness-enhancing community-level load mapping with opportunistic machine learning

Motivated by present and forthcoming challenges in the adoption and integration of distributed renewable energy, we develop a machine learning (ML) approach that builds short-fuse mappings connecting the occasionally-unobservable true load in one target community with information-rich signals collected from relatively more instrumented reference communities. Our setting is inspired by and tailored to target communities with significant unobservable behind-the-meter solar generation, where true load (a relatively well-behaved quantity of interest to grid operators) is hard to discern during daytime due to insufficient instrumentation and/or privacy reasons, but that can be related to reference communities with low unobservable distributed variable generation or with sufficient instrumentation. The developed mapping, herein realized with Support Vector Machine regression, is built using nighttime data from all communities, when their distributed generation is low or zero. Our ML algorithm opportunistically learns to correlate signals of interest and then is operationally used the next day to shed light into target community load evolution. The mapping is subsequently rebuilt, rolling its short-fuse scope perpetually forward in time. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on nine synthetically generated topologies and associated timeseries stemming from real-world data, on which we observe cumulative error performance that yields lower than 10% and 15% daily-averaged mean absolute percentage errors in target community load estimation on more than about 75% and 90% of days, respectively, in multiple yearly evaluations that shed light on long-term performance also under seasonal and one-off effects. The proposed ML-powered methodology can offer grid operators much-improved visibility into a previously obscure space and can also serve as an additional source of information in broader, multi-modal solar disaggregation solutions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies

To meet the nationally determined contributions proposed by the countries that signed the Paris Agreement, investments must be made in renewable generation technologies such as solar and wind. However, due to their high variability, these technologies pose challenges in terms of meeting demand or generating excess electricity. For this reason, energy system models are designed to capture this variability by considering flexibility technologies. Nevertheless, it is important to note that some energy system models lack integration with other sectors. Therefore, integrated assessment models have been employed to evaluate mitigation strategies, as they endogenously consider the linkages between energy and non-energy sectors. In addition, due to their complexity, these models do not account for the variability of renewable resources. Hence, this research aims to address this issue. Here, this work represents the first attempt to evaluate how the introduction of hourly resolution affects the outcomes of integrated assessment models, specifically focusing on the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We employ a soft-linking approach between the GCAM and the Highway to Renewable Energy Systems model (H2RES, an hourly level energy system model) to accomplish this. The proposed approach is tested using Chile’s Nationally Determined Contributions under different hydrological profiles in the power sector. The results show that it is possible to use the capacity obtained from the Global Change Analysis Model and implement it on an hourly scale. However, the feasibility of implementation depends on high levels of flexibility technologies, such as battery energy storage. When given the choice of investments in renewable sources and flexible technologies, the optimal dispatch of the H2RES model show small differences than those obtained by GCAM-Chile. H2RES differs from GCAM-Chile in approximately 5% for wind and 3% for solar electricity generation in the year 2050. However, feasible integration of significant renewable sources is obtained with relatively high Critical Excess Electricity Production levels, reaching 20% in 2050. This excess electricity is attributed to the necessity for flexible technologies to manage the intermittency of renewables sources when hourly profiles of such sources are considered.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Microreactor-liquid metal battery system in energy markets: An evaluation of potential costs, technology, and policy impacts

Microreactors represent an emerging innovation in the nuclear industry; yet have been overshadowed by their high capital costs. With the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), new opportunities have emerged to improve the economics of microreactor systems. This work examines liquid metal batteries (LMB) as a value-adding technology as part of microreactor-LMB systems within three U.S. electricity markets: ERCOT, PJM, and MISO. Our investigation considers key uncertainties: the cost of microreactors, the performance of LMBs, and the eligible tax credit levels. To this end, we use a dispatch optimization to trace not only the changes in system economics but also to provide a granular picture of energy delivery within the systems. We find that even with favorable costs for microreactors, significant regional variations in the project sizing and returns exist across the markets. Our heuristic method identifies their non-electric application potentials beyond electricity and technical requirements to maximize returns. The results suggest that 12–39 % of reactor heat could be cost-effectively diverted to produce more valuable by-products in U.S. markets. Including the impacts of tax credits, we establish the outcomes of each provision with varying rates. Coupling an LMB to a microreactor consistently improves the net present value of a microreactor compared to its standalone operation. In conclusion, for reasonable assumed conditions, we quantify a heterogeneous impact of round-trip efficiency (RTE) and extended LMB service life across the three markets—a one-year extension in LMB service life is roughly equivalent to a 2.11 % improvement in RTE for ERCOT, 1.16 % for PJM, and 1.04 % for MISO.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Unraveling Hydrogen Induced Geochemical Reaction Mechanisms through Coupled Geochemical Modeling and Machine Learning

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) provides a promising large-scale, long-term energy storage solution. A reasonable recovery of stored hydrogen is critical for a successful storage scheme. However, in subsurface reservoirs hydrogen is subject to active geochemical reactions that might result in hydrogen loss. In this study, we implemented a geochemical modeling approach coupled with an unsupervised machine learning technique called non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) to unravel the complex brine-rock-H 2 geochemical processes responsible for hydrogen losses, with particular focus on sulfate reduction reactions. NMF is applied to modeled mineral evolution and fluid component profiles to retrieve profiles that can be interpreted to more easily assess competing processes. NMF decouples simulated competing equilibrium reactions. This facilitates separation of overlapping reaction profiles from redox processes, dissolution fronts, and secondary precipitation while considering the effects of simulation parameters such as salinity, temperature, and total H 2 pressure. NMF successfully discriminates these competing effects in nonlinear ways, allowing robust interpretation. In addition, NMF reveals subtle coupled mineral associations and reaction fronts that are invisible to conventional model analysis. This integrated approach strengthens the conceptual understanding of complex nonlinear hydrogen-brine-rock interactions and advances geochemical research on UHS systems to resolve complexities in modeled geochemical systems without the need for direct experiments or prior knowledge. Furthermore, this study highlights the efficacy of combining geochemical modeling with machine learning techniques to enhance the interpretability of the intricate geochemical simulation output through deciphering the overlapping reaction path that cannot be achieved only using conventional analysis of geochemical models alone.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Permeate fluxes from desalination of brines and produced waters: A reactive transport modeling study

The increasing interest in the use of membrane systems to desalinate inland brackish water, agricultural drainage, and industrially produced wastewater demands improved means of predicting desalination system performance under variable feedwater compositions. The interaction among water flow, solute transport, and chemical composition in these systems impacts permeate flux evolution. Here, an established multicomponent reactive transport simulator that accounts for these coupled processes is applied to compute osmotic pressure and permeate fluxes in reverse osmosis (RO) systems. The model is first validated by predicting permeate fluxes for a set of benchtop crossflow experiments subject to a range of feed flow rates and compositions, under fouling and non-fouling conditions. Results compare favorably with measured data that show that solutions with similar total dissolved solids concentrations but different compositions result in different permeate fluxes. The model is then applied to predict permeate fluxes from the desalination of produced waters using a commercial spiral wound RO module. For NaCl-dominant brines, at total dissolved salt concentrations (TDS) below about 70 g/L, permeate fluxes are inversely proportional to water mole fraction as the latter is a reasonable approximation of water activity (i.e. ideal mixing). In the case of Ca–Cl-, Na–CO3- and Na–SO4-dominant brines below about 70 g/L TDS, this relationship does not hold as well and tends to overpredict osmotic pressure and thus underpredict permeate fluxes. However, the opposite becomes true at higher TDS values for typical produced waters. The scaling potential of these waters is also computed by allowing the precipitation of minerals above their saturation limit on the RO membrane. This work demonstrates how reactive transport models developed for the analysis of waters from geological systems can be extended to improve process design, optimization, and control in desalination systems from produced waters and beyond.

Molins, Sergi↗

Theoretical modeling of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter structural loadings and power performances

Here, this study presents theoretical formulations to evaluate the fundamental parameters and performance characteristics of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) device. Employing a flat plate assumption and potential flow formulation in elliptical coordinates, closed-form equations for the added mass, radiation damping, and excitation forces/torques in the relevant pitch-pitch and surge-pitch directions of motion are developed and used to calculate the system's response amplitude operator and the forces and moments acting on the foundation. The model is benchmarked against numerical simulations using WAMIT and WEC-Sim, showcasing excellent agreement. The sensitivity of plate thickness on the analytical hydrodynamic solutions is investigated over several thickness-to-width ratios ranging from 1:80 to 1:10. The results show that as the thickness of the benchmark OSWEC increases, the deviation of the analytical hydrodynamic coefficients from the numerical solutions grows from 3% to 25%. Differences in the excitation forces and torques, however, are contained within 12%. While the flat plate assumption is a limitation of the proposed analytical model, the error is within a reasonable margin for use in the design space exploration phase before a higher-fidelity (and thus more computationally expensive) model is employed. A parametric study demonstrates the ability of the analytical model to quickly sweep over a domain of OSWEC dimensions, illustrating the analytical model's utility in the early phases of design.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Designing reinforcement learning algorithms for building HVAC control: From experimental observation to simulation comparisons

Advanced supervisory-level control with reinforcement learning (RL) is regarded as a promising solution for HVAC systems to minimize energy consumption while maintaining thermal comfort and indoor air quality. However, most RL applications were conducted in the simulation environment rather than real-world HVAC systems. This paper developed a value-based RL controller termed Deep Q-Network (DQN) for a typical central HVAC system and evaluated its performance in a building test facility. By comparing DQN with a rule-based controller, the study not only demonstrated the cases where DQN could properly maintain indoor comfort but also discussed possible reasons why DQN failed in some other situations. Recognizing the limitations of value-based RL algorithms from the experimental tests, a simulation study was conducted to compare DQN with an alternative RL approach, an actor–critic algorithm termed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG). In scenarios with a relatively large action space, DDPG outperformed DQN by requiring fewer computational resources and achieving better thermal comfort, lower energy consumption, and more stable control actions. The findings suggest that the ability of DDPG to handle continuous control variables more effectively allows for faster convergence in training and more precise control in practice, which enhances the overall efficiency and reliability of the HVAC system.

Guo, Fangzhou↗

Virtual refrigerant charge sensor for variable-speed heat pumps based on feature selection

The refrigerant charge level in heat pump systems significantly impacts their energy efficiency. Virtual refrigerant charge (VRC) sensing technology has been comprehensively investigated and well-established due to its lower cost compared to physical sensors. However, the previous VRC research often relied on expert judgment and physical reasoning for their variable selection, which can potentially select redundant (or highly correlated) or insignificant features, and it is also primarily focused on single-speed systems. To address these challenges, this study proposes a VRC algorithm for variable-speed heat pumps that selects features through a rigorous feature selection method in combination with physical insights. We also propose a piecewise linear model structure segmented by subcooling temperature to accurately predict charge levels, particularly when subcooling temperatures are substantially low. The proposed algorithm was evaluated using experimental data of a residential R410A heat pump, and the performance was compared with two baseline VRC algorithms. The results are: (1) The proposed algorithm outperforms for the case with subcooling temperature less than 1 °C. (2) The proposed algorithm achieves a tested mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.23%, and improves the overall accuracy for cooling conditions by approximately 60%, compared with the two baseline algorithms. (3) The proposed algorithm uses two fewer features and improves the accuracy for undercharge cooling conditions by 68.0%, compared with baseline algorithm 2. These improvements enhance prediction accuracy and prevent overfitting, providing a more reliable refrigerant charge level prediction and helping improve the heat pump energy efficiency.

Liang, Chenjiyu↗

Nanoparticle-mediated antagonism of sustained endosomal signaling of the calcitonin receptor-like receptor provides enhanced and persistent relief of oral cancer pain

By improving the delivery and tumor retention of chemotherapeutics, nanomedicines hold potential for cancer treatment. The usefulness of nanoparticle (NP)-encapsulated analgesics for the cancer pain treatment is comparatively unexplored. We investigated whether NPs encapsulating olcegepant (OCP), an antagonist of the calcitonin receptor-like receptor (CLR) for the calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP), effectively relieved oral cancer pain in mice. Because persistent endosomal CLR signaling in Schwann cells mediates craniofacial pain, we reasoned that the predisposition of NPs to accumulate in endosomes could be leveraged to effectively relieve oral cancer pain. By expressing biosensors for activated CLR, Gα proteins and β-arrestins in HEK293T and Schwann cells, we found that CGRP activates CLR signaling first at the plasma membrane and then in early, late and recycling endosomes and the cis- and trans-Golgi apparatus. We synthesized biocompatible NPs encapsulating OCP and fluorophores by integrating hydrophobic ion pairing nanoformulation with Flash NanoPrecipitation. NPs slowly released OCP and accumulated in early endosomes, leading to sustained inhibition of endosomal CLR signaling in HEK293T and Schwann cells. Oral cancers were established in mice, which led to heightened pain-like responses. After intra-tumoral injection, NPs were retained in tumors for at least one week. OCP-loaded NPs almost completely reversed allodynia and hyperalgesia for a prolonged period, whereas unencapsulated OCP had small and transient effects. The NP accumulation in endosomal sites of pain signaling, the sustained release of antagonist, and the retention of NPs in tumors explain their beneficial actions. Thus, NP-encapsulation holds promise for the relief of painful cancers that are inadequately treated by opioids.

Calcitonin gene-related peptide↗

Predicting the evolution of biomass bulk density through feedstock preprocessing: Discrete element modeling, regression analysis, and pilot-scale validation

Bulk density is an important material property of biomass feedstocks, influencing handling, storage, transport costs, and conversion efficiency. In this study, predictive regression models for loose and tapped bulk densities of Alamo and Cave-in-Rock switchgrass are developed using a comprehensive dataset generated via calibrated bonded-sphere discrete element method (DEM) simulations. Here, a key contribution of this study is the use of a DEM-based approach, which correlates density with moisture content and particle size distribution parameters and enables analysis across a continuous particle size range, overcoming limitations of purely experimental data. For comparison, regression models are also developed using only experimental data from pilot-scale runs at the Biomass Feedstock National User Facility at Idaho National Laboratory. Validation against pilot-scale data showed reasonable prediction accuracy for both model types, particularly for smaller particle sizes (post-secondary grinding). While the experimental model showed slightly better performance matching the validation data in some cases, the DEM-based model benefits from a much larger dataset, reduced predictor multicollinearity, and continuous parameter coverage, highlighting the utility of validated simulation models for developing robust predictive tools for biomass preprocessing applications.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

Engineering and evolution of Yarrowia lipolytica for producing lipids from lignocellulosic hydrolysates

Yarrowia lipolytica, an oleaginous yeast, shows promise for industrial fermentation due to its robust acetyl-CoA flux and well-developed genetic engineering tools. However, its lack of an active xylose metabolism restricts the conversion of cellulosic sugars to valuable products. To address this, metabolic engineering, and adaptive laboratory evolution (ALE) were applied to the Y. lipolytica PO1f strain, resulting in an efficient xylose-assimilating strain (XEV). Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of the XEV followed by reverse engineering revealed that the amplification of the heterologous oxidoreductase pathway and a mutation in the GTPase-activating protein gene (YALI0B12100g) might be the primary reasons for improved xylose assimilation in the XEV strain. When a sorghum hydrolysate was used, the XEV strain showed superior xylose consumption and lipid production compared to its parental strain (X123). This study advances our understanding of xylose metabolism in Y. lipolytica and proposes effective metabolic engineering strategies for optimizing lignocellulosic hydrolysates.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Nonthermal hydrogen plasma-enabled ambient, fast lignin hydrogenolysis to valuable chemicals and bio-oils

The reduction of fossil fuel resources and the ongoing surge in global energy demand have captured the interest of researchers worldwide, prompting a focus on developing renewable energy sources. For this reason, biomass conversion has emerged as a crucial pathway for renewable fuel production. Lignin, constituting 10–35% of woody biomass, represents a significant and largely untapped sustainable feedstock. Despite the potential of lignin, a substantial portion of this lignocellulosic residue remains unused, with approximately 60% considered waste. This study addresses the challenge of underutilized lignin by introducing an innovative approach to its hydrogenolysis. Despite their potential, existing hydrogenolysis methods face obstacles such as complexity, high cost, and the need for high temperatures or pressures. Herein we report a noncatalytic nonthermal hydrogen plasma method for lignin hydrogenolysis, conducted under ambient temperature and pressure conditions. Our method proves to be highly effective in breaking lignin bonds, achieving complete conversion, and generating valuable gaseous and bio-oil products including methane and aromatic dimers and monomers obtained from guaiacyl and syringyl units within the lignin structure. Our results showed an increase in gaseous products, especially methane, and aromatic monomer yields, as well as a reduction in total bio-oil and biochar yields and lignin functional groups by increasing reaction time, input power, and H2 partial pressure. This research confirms the considerable promise of utilizing noncatalytic nonthermal hydrogen plasma-assisted hydrogenolysis as an effective technique for producing gaseous and liquid fuels from lignin.

Pishva, Parsa↗

Thermodynamic modeling of countercurrent chemical looping reverse water gas shift process for redox material screening

The reverse water gas shift (RWGS) reaction is a key pathway for CO 2 utilization, particularly within Power-to-X process chains aimed at sustainable fuel and chemical production. Countercurrent chemical looping (CL-RWGS) using non-stoichiometric oxides can overcome equilibrium limitations of conventional RWGS reactors, enabling significantly higher CO 2 conversions. However, modeling the limiting performance of such systems is challenging due to their multiphase nature and coupled spatial and temporal variation in chemical composition. In this work, we present a discretized batch equilibrium model that simulates CL-RWGS reactors as a series of localized equilibrium exchanges between gas and solid elements. The model is numerically stable, computationally efficient, and free of kinetic source terms, making it well-suited for parametric studies and system-level integration. It is validated against established convection–diffusion models and shown to predict reasonable upper bounds on experimental results. Application of the model to a range of oxygen carrier materials identifies cerium–zirconium solid solutions, particularly Ce 0.80 Zr 0.20 O 2 , as a promising class offering superior oxygen storage characteristics compared to state-of-the-art La 0.6 Sr 0.4 FeO 3 . This framework provides a robust platform for materials screening, reactor sizing, and performance optimization in chemical looping systems. The model implementation is available as open-source software to support further research and development.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development of fiber orientation in injection molding: Comparison of glass fiber, carbon fiber and their hybrid composites

Fiber orientation distribution (FOD) in injection-molded panels with respect to distance from the gate was analyzed using X-ray computed tomography (X-CT) for glass fiber (GF), carbon fiber (CF), and hybrid CF/GF (CGF) reinforced nylon 66. To understand the reason behind the FOD with different fiber types, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and rheology were performed. Samples were extracted at three locations: near the gate, center, and opposite end. Thickness of the layers of typical skin-shell-core type FOD varied with fiber type and location. GF achieved flow direction alignment (in shell) earlier than viscous CF and CGF near the gate, whereas CF showed the highest flow-direction alignment at the center due to shear induced orientation. At the opposite end, GF experienced more backflow than others indicating faster mold filling owing to its lower viscosity. Hybrid CGF exhibited GF-dominated center and CF-dominated end region. The numerical model used to obtain FOD and rheological predictions for the CF and GF composites served to corroborate the trends observed in the experimental trials. The FOD responses across fiber types and location were reflected in their longitudinal and transverse properties. Only GF showed higher longitudinal modulus over transverse modulus near the gate attributed to rapid alignment, whereas CF and CGF exhibited opposite trend. However, fountain flow enhanced the longitudinal modulus over transverse modulus with the distance for all, particularly for CF. This study offers insights into mold filling behavior of different fibers which are critical in optimizing injection molding conditions for tailored final properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A numerical study of process complexity in permafrost dominated regions

Numerical modeling of permafrost dynamics requires adequate representation of atmospheric and surface processes, a reasonable parameter estimation strategy, and site-specific model development. The three main research objectives of the study are: (i) to propose a novel methodology that determines the required level of surface process complexity of permafrost models by conducting parameter sensitivity and calibration, (ii) to design and compare three numerical models of increasing surface process complexity, and (iii) to calibrate and validate the numerical models at the Yakou catchment on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as an exemplary study site. The calibration was carried out by coupling the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (numerical model) and PEST (calibration tool). Simulation results showed that (i) A simple numerical model that considers only subsurface processes can simulate active layer development with the same accuracy as other more complex models that include surface processes. (ii) Peat and mineral soil layer permeability, Van Genuchten alpha, and porosity are highly sensitive. (iii) Liquid precipitation aids in increasing the rate of permafrost degradation. (iv) Deposition of snow insulated the subsurface during the thaw initiation period. We have developed and released an integrated code that couples the numerical software ATS to the calibration software PEST. The numerical model can be further used to determine the impacts of climate change on permafrost degradation.

Calibration↗