Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Reliability model generation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) 4d-Var and its Adjoint-based Tools

The fifth generation of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Data Assimilation System (DAS) is a 3d-var system that uses the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system developed in collaboration with NCEP, and a general circulation model developed at Goddard, that includes the finite-volume hydrodynamics of GEOS-4 wrapped in the Earth System Modeling Framework and physical packages tuned to provide a reliable hydrological cycle for the integration of the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). This MERRA system is essentially complete and the next generation GEOS is under intense development. A prototype next generation system is now complete and has been producing preliminary results. This prototype system replaces the GSI-based Incremental Analysis Update procedure with a GSI-based 4d-var which uses the adjoint of the finite-volume hydrodynamics of GEOS-4 together with a vertical diffusing scheme for simplified physics. As part of this development we have kept the GEOS-5 IAU procedure as an option and have added the capability to experiment with a First Guess at the Appropriate Time (FGAT) procedure, thus allowing for at least three modes of running the data assimilation experiments. The prototype system is a large extension of GEOS-5 as it also includes various adjoint-based tools, namely, a forecast sensitivity tool, a singular vector tool, and an observation impact tool, that combines the model sensitivity tool with a GSI-based adjoint tool. These features bring the global data assimilation effort at Goddard up to date with technologies used in data assimilation systems at major meteorological centers elsewhere. Various aspects of the next generation GEOS will be discussed during the presentation at the Workshop, and preliminary results will illustrate the discussion.

Todling, Ricardo↗

Constraining nuclear mass models using 𝑟-process observables with multiobjective optimization

Modeling nuclear masses, particularly for nuclei far from stability, remains a key objective in nuclear physics. One contemporary approach is machine learning (ML), which trains on experimental data, but can suffer large errors when extrapolating toward neutron-rich species. In nature, such masses shape observables for the rapid neutron capture process (𝑟 process), which in principle could inform ML models. Here, we introduce a multiobjective optimization approach using the Pareto front algorithm. We show that this technique, capable of identifying models that generate 𝑟-process abundances aligning with both solar and stellar data, is a promising method to select ML models with reliable extrapolation power.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The art of fault-tolerant system reliability modeling

A step-by-step tutorial of the methods and tools used for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant systems is presented. Emphasis is on the representation of architectural features in mathematical models. Details of the mathematical solution of complex reliability models are not presented. Instead the use of several recently developed computer programs--SURE, ASSIST, STEM, PAWS--which automate the generation and solution of these models is described.

Butler, Ricky W.↗

Techniques for modeling the reliability of fault-tolerant systems with the Markov state-space approach

This paper presents a step-by-step tutorial of the methods and the tools that were used for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant systems. The approach used in this paper is the Markov (or semi-Markov) state-space method. The paper is intended for design engineers with a basic understanding of computer architecture and fault tolerance, but little knowledge of reliability modeling. The representation of architectural features in mathematical models is emphasized. This paper does not present details of the mathematical solution of complex reliability models. Instead, it describes the use of several recently developed computer programs SURE, ASSIST, STEM, and PAWS that automate the generation and the solution of these models.

Butler, Ricky W.↗

Performance Measurement of Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASC-E3)

NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been supporting development of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) since 2006. A key element of the ASRG project is providing life, reliability, and performance testing data of the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC). The latest version of the ASC (ASC-E3, to represent the third cycle of engineering model test hardware) is of a design identical to the forthcoming flight convertors. For this generation of hardware, a joint Sunpower and GRC effort was initiated to improve and standardize the test support hardware. After this effort was completed, the first pair of ASC-E3 units was produced by Sunpower and then delivered to GRC in December 2012. GRC has begun operation of these units. This process included performance verification, which examined the data from various tests to validate the convertor performance to the product specification. Other tests included detailed performance mapping that encompassed the wide range of operating conditions that will exist during a mission. These convertors were then transferred to Lockheed Martin for controller checkout testing. The results of this latest convertor performance verification activity are summarized here.

Stirling Cycle↗

Validation of a Pressure-Based Combustion Simulation Tool Using a Single Element Injector Test Problem

The traditional design and analysis practice for advanced propulsion systems, particularly chemical rocket engines, relies heavily on expensive full-scale prototype development and testing. Over the past decade, use of high-fidelity analysis and design tools such as CFD early in the product development cycle has been identified as one way to alleviate testing costs and to develop these devices better, faster and cheaper. Increased emphasis is being placed on developing and applying CFD models to simulate the flow field environments and performance of advanced propulsion systems. This necessitates the development of next generation computational tools which can be used effectively and reliably in a design environment by non-CFD specialists. A computational tool, called Loci-STREAM is being developed for this purpose. It is a pressure-based, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solver for generalized unstructured grids, which is designed to handle all-speed flows (incompressible to hypersonic) and is particularly suitable for solving multi-species flow in fixed-frame combustion devices. Loci-STREAM integrates proven numerical methods for generalized grids and state-of-the-art physical models in a novel rule-based programming framework called Loci which allows: (a) seamless integration of multidisciplinary physics in a unified manner, and (b) automatic handling of massively parallel computing. The objective of the ongoing work is to develop a robust simulation capability for combustion problems in rocket engines. As an initial step towards validating this capability, a model problem is investigated in the present study which involves a gaseous oxygen/gaseous hydrogen (GO2/GH2) shear coaxial single element injector, for which experimental data are available. The sensitivity of the computed solutions to grid density, grid distribution, different turbulence models, and different near-wall treatments is investigated. A refined grid, which is clustered in the vicinity of the solid walls as well as the flame, is used to obtain a steady state solution which may be considered as the best solution attainable with the steady-state RANS methodology. From a design point of view, quick turnaround times are desirable; with this in mind, coarser grids are also employed and the resulting solutions are evaluated with respect to the fine grid solution.

Thakur, Siddarth↗

Cloud radiative effects significantly increase wintertime atmospheric blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sector

Reliable simulation, prediction, and complete theoretical understanding of atmospheric blocking remain challenging despite its significant socio-economic impacts. Generations of climate models have notoriously underestimated blocking frequency, particularly over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Identifying factors controlling blocking frequency and dynamics is therefore essential for improving its simulation. Here, using a cloud-locking experiment, we show that cloud radiative effects (CREs) significantly increase the frequency of Euro-Atlantic blocking. CREs enhance upstream diabatic source of wave activity, both directly through longwave heating and indirectly through their feedback on latent heating, with the latter playing the dominant role. The resulting increase in the upstream diabatic source feeds into local wave activity downstream and promotes blocking formation. Qualitatively similar results are shown by multi-model experiments with radiatively inactive clouds to longwave radiation, albeit with a larger impact from mean-state changes. The results underscore the necessity of accurately representing cloud-radiation interactions in weather and climate models for improved prediction of blocking events.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

jFuzz: A Concolic Whitebox Fuzzer for Java

We present jFuzz, a automatic testing tool for Java programs. jFuzz is a concolic whitebox fuzzer, built on the NASA Java PathFinder, an explicit-state Java model checker, and a framework for developing reliability and analysis tools for Java. Starting from a seed input, jFuzz automatically and systematically generates inputs that exercise new program paths. jFuzz uses a combination of concrete and symbolic execution, and constraint solving. Time spent on solving constraints can be significant. We implemented several well-known optimizations and name-independent caching, which aggressively normalizes the constraints to reduce the number of calls to the constraint solver. We present preliminary results due to the optimizations, and demonstrate the effectiveness of jFuzz in creating good test inputs. The source code of jFuzz is available as part of the NASA Java PathFinder. jFuzz is intended to be a research testbed for investigating new testing and analysis techniques based on concrete and symbolic execution. The source code of jFuzz is available as part of the NASA Java PathFinder.

Jayaraman, Karthick↗

Simulating Alpha Particles Incident on MKID Chips for Quantum Sensitivity Analysis

Superconducting quantum devices, such as microwave kinetic inductance detectors (MKIDs), are highly sensitive instruments used in quantum computing and advanced sensing technologies. However, their extreme sensitivity also makes them vulnerable to background noise from natural sources like radiation. One significant contributor to this noise is alpha particles emitted by 210Po, a radon decay daughter that accumulates on surfaces near the detector. This project investigates how alpha particles emitted from 210Po interact with MKID chips. These particles can deposit energy on the detector surface, disrupting its operation and generating false signals. Understanding the energy and behavior of these particles is crucial for improving the design and reliability of quantum devices. To explore this, we first modeled the decay chain starting from 210Pb to 210Po using differential equations. This allowed us to predict how the activity of alpha-emitting isotopes changes over time, reaching a steady state after about two years. Next, we simulated alpha particle interactions with the MKID chip using the Geant4 software toolkit. We built a detailed computer model of the detector housing, including the copper lid where alpha particles originate, the silicon chip, and a thin aluminum sensor layer. Alpha particles were emitted isotropically from just beneath the copper lid’s surface, mimicking natural decay conditions. The simulation tracked how these particles deposit energy on the chip, generating electron-hole pairs and phonons. The results provide insight into the behavior of the resultant electron-hole pairs and phonons, giving us a clear understanding of the energy deposition distribution on the chip. This work supports efforts to mitigate background noise in superconducting sensors, advancing their use in quantum computing and sensitive physics experiments.

Hall, Matthew [Fermilab; UCLA]↗

A bi-level advanced control framework for large-scale control of buildings with system-level impact

Increased electricity consumption combined with new forms of generation is testing the reliability of our grid infrastructure. This work describes a method to improve the reliability of the grid through large-scale advanced building control. This paper develops a bi-level distributed control framework to shift the load of 153 buildings to achieve a system-level objective of tracking a power reference signal. This bi-level control is based on the previously-developed ANPV-MPC, a predictive controller that uses a Bayesian neural network to generate an accurate control model and adapt to changing conditions over time. By shifting the building electricity demand to better match the available power, the grid system supplying the buildings is more reliable as evidenced by the analysis of node voltages across an IEEE 13-bus distribution system. The proposed bi-level control framework tracks the system-level power reference with enough accuracy to regulate node voltages across the IEEE 13-bus distribution system within ANSI limits of ±5%. Additionally, the adaptive nature of ANPV-MPC allows each building across the system to adapt to changing conditions, further amplifying the system-level reliability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

High-Fidelity Modeling of a Type-5 Wind Turbine Gearbox (Intern Poster) [Poster]

Type-5 wind turbines are unique in their use of a permanent magnet synchronous generator, as well as their use of a hydraulic torque converter. This architecture presents an opportunity to provide steady and grid-ready energy without the need for a power converter. With infrastructure continuity and reliability being an important topic amongst renewable energies, researchers have been prompted to further investigate the benefits of type-5 turbines’ unique electromechanical configuration on stable electricity generation. Researchers involved in the WindSG project, SG standing for synchronous generator, are aiming to model a type-5 turbine using Real Time Digital Simulation (RTDS) to evaluate its efficacy in the grid. RSCAD, the software run on the RTDS, comes pre-loaded with electrical and electromechanical components to help simulate electrical generation and grid conditions. However, within this repertoire there is a lack of a component to represent a gearbox with high-fidelity. Within RSCAD’s case studies, the gearbox is often represented simply by a gear ratio value. This presented the task of developing a high-fidelity gearbox model in RSCAD for use in the larger RTDS type-5 wind turbine model. This poster describes a method of developing a lumped parameter mathematical model to represent a planetary-parallel-parallel gearbox in RSCAD for use in RTDS.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

High-Fidelity Modeling of a Type-5 Wind Turbine Gearbox (Intern Technical Presentation) (Poster)

Type-5 wind turbines are unique in their use of a permanent magnet synchronous generator, as well as their use of a hydraulic torque converter. This architecture presents an opportunity to provide steady and grid-ready energy without the need for a power converter. With infrastructure continuity and reliability being an important topic amongst renewable energies, researchers have been prompted to further investigate the benefits of type-5 turbines’ unique electromechanical configuration on stable electricity generation. Researchers involved in the WindSG project, SG standing for synchronous generator, are aiming to model a type-5 turbine using Real Time Digital Simulation (RTDS) to evaluate its efficacy in the grid. RSCAD, the software run on the RTDS, comes pre-loaded with electrical and electromechanical components to help simulate electrical generation and grid conditions. However, within this repertoire there is a lack of a component to represent a gearbox with high-fidelity. Within RSCAD’s case studies, the gearbox is often represented simply by a gear ratio value. This presented the task of developing a high-fidelity gearbox model in RSCAD for use in the larger RTDS type-5 wind turbine model. This presentation describes a method of developing a lumped parameter mathematical model to represent a planetary-parallel-parallel gearbox in RSCAD for use in RTDS.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Toward machine learning interatomic potentials for modeling uranium mononitride

Uranium mononitride (UN) is a promising accident-tolerant fuel because of its high fissile density and high thermal conductivity. In this study, we developed the first machine learning interatomic potentials for reliable atomic-scale modeling of UN at finite temperatures. We constructed a training set using density functional theory (DFT) calculations that was enriched through an active learning procedure, and two neural network potentials were generated. Both potentials successfully reproduce key thermophysical properties of interest, such as temperature-dependent lattice parameter, specific heat capacity, and bulk modulus. We also evaluated the energy of stoichiometric defect reactions and defect migration barriers and found close agreement with DFT predictions, demonstrating that our potentials can be used for modeling defects in UN. Additional tests provide evidence that our potentials are reliable for simulating diffusion, noble gas impurities, and radiation damage.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Immunization of cows with HIV envelope trimers generates broadly neutralizing antibodies to the V2-apex from the ultralong CDRH3 repertoire

The generation of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) to conserved epitopes on HIV Envelope (Env) is one of the cornerstones of HIV vaccine research. The animal models commonly used for HIV do not reliably produce a potent broadly neutralizing serum antibody response, with the exception of cows. Cows have previously produced a CD4 binding site response by homologous prime and boosting with a native-like Env trimer. In small animal models, other engineered immunogens were shown to focus antibody responses to the bnAb V2-apex region of Env. Here, we immunized two groups of cows (n = 4) with two regimens of V2-apex focusing Env immunogens to investigate whether antibody responses could be generated to the V2-apex on Env. Group 1 was immunized with chimpanzee simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV)-Env trimer that shares its V2-apex with HIV, followed by immunization with C108, a V2-apex focusing immunogen, and finally boosted with a cross-clade native-like trimer cocktail. Group 2 was immunized with HIV C108 Env trimer followed by the same HIV trimer cocktail as Group 1. Longitudinal serum analysis showed that one cow in each group developed serum neutralizing antibody responses to the V2-apex. Eight and 11 bnAbs were isolated from Group 1 and Group 2 cows, respectively, and showed moderate breadth and potency. Potent and broad responses in this study developed much later than previous cow immunizations that elicited CD4bs bnAbs responses and required several different immunogens. All isolated bnAbs were derived from the ultralong CDRH3 repertoire. The finding that cow antibodies can target more than one broadly neutralizing epitope on the HIV surface reveals the generality of elongated structures for the recognition of highly glycosylated proteins. The exclusive isolation of ultralong CDRH3 bnAbs, despite only comprising a small percent of the cow repertoire, suggests these antibodies outcompete the long and short CDRH3 antibodies during the bnAb response.

Microbiology↗

Connecting Minds: AI Use Cases to Bridge Power Systems and Large Language Models for Practical Applications

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and development of large language models (LLMs) present the opportunity to develop a new generation of power systems applications. In contrast with early power system AI applications based on structured numerical data, LLMs offer unique capabilities to perform logical reasoning using text documents, unstructured data, and application programming interface (API) calls to computational software. This paper seeks to bridge the knowledge gap between power systems engineers and LLM developers through a crosscutting explanation of use cases, characteristics, requirements, practical considerations from the perspectives of both LLM capabilities and industry needs. Specific focus is given to applications that can be realistically deployed by electric utilities. After introducing the architecture of LLMs and unique challenges of the power systems domain, this paper proposes twenty representative LLM applications grouped into categories of 1) power system operations, 2) asset management, 3) system planning and analytics, and 4) energy management and protection systems. Five use cases are presented within each category with descriptions of the motivation, objectives, approaches, example inputs / outputs, and benefits of each use case.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Supporting Resource Adequacy via the ReEDS-India Model [Slides]

ReEDS-India is an open-access tool for mid- and long-term capacity expansion modeling that finds the mix of generation, transmission, and storage technologies that meet the anticipated requirements of the electric sector at least cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Comparison of Metamodeling Techniques via Numerical Experiments

This paper presents a comparative analysis of a few metamodeling techniques using numerical experiments for the single input-single output case. These experiments enable comparing the models' predictions with the phenomenon they are aiming to describe as more data is made available. These techniques include (i) prediction intervals associated with a least squares parameter estimate, (ii) Bayesian credible intervals, (iii) Gaussian process models, and (iv) interval predictor models. Aspects being compared are computational complexity, accuracy (i.e., the degree to which the resulting prediction conforms to the actual Data Generating Mechanism), reliability (i.e., the probability that new observations will fall inside the predicted interval), sensitivity to outliers, extrapolation properties, ease of use, and asymptotic behavior. The numerical experiments describe typical application scenarios that challenge the underlying assumptions supporting most metamodeling techniques.

Crespo, Luis G.↗