Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Representative Key Risks”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

A novel random forest approach to revealing interactions and controls on chlorophyll concentration and bacterial communities during coastal phytoplankton blooms

Abstract Increasing occurrence of harmful algal blooms across the land–water interface poses significant risks to coastal ecosystem structure and human health. Defining significant drivers and their interactive impacts on blooms allows for more effective analysis and identification of specific conditions supporting phytoplankton growth. A novel iterative Random Forests (iRF) machine-learning model was developed and applied to two example cases along the California coast to identify key stable interactions: (1) phytoplankton abundance in response to various drivers due to coastal conditions and land-sea nutrient fluxes, (2) microbial community structure during algal blooms. In Example 1, watershed derived nutrients were identified as the least significant interacting variable associated with Monterey Bay phytoplankton abundance. In Example 2, through iRF analysis of field-based 16S OTU bacterial community and algae datasets, we independently found stable interactions of prokaryote abundance patterns associated with phytoplankton abundance that have been previously identified in laboratory-based studies. Our study represents the first iRF application to marine algal blooms that helps to identify ocean, microbial, and terrestrial conditions that are considered dominant causal factors on bloom dynamics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Testing of an Annular Linear Induction Pump for the Fission Surface Power Technology Demonstration Unit

Results of performance testing of an annular linear induction pump that has been designed for integration into a fission surface power technology demonstration unit are presented. The pump electromagnetically pushes liquid metal (NaK) through a specially-designed apparatus that permits quantification of pump performance over a range of operating conditions. Testing was conducted for frequencies of 40, 55, and 70 Hz, liquid metal temperatures of 125, 325, and 525 C, and input voltages from 30 to 120 V. Pump performance spanned a range of flow rates from roughly 0.3 to 3.1 L/s (4.8 to 49 gpm), and pressure heads of <1 to 104 kPa (<0.15 to 15 psi). The maximum efficiency measured during testing was 5.4%. At the technology demonstration unit operating temperature of 525 C the pump operated over a narrower envelope, with flow rates from 0.3 to 2.75 L/s (4.8 to 43.6 gpm), developed pressure heads from <1 to 55 kPa (<0.15 to 8 psi), and a maximum efficiency of 3.5%. The pump was supplied with three-phase power at 40 and 55 Hz using a variable-frequency motor drive, while power at 55 and 70 Hz was supplied using a variable-frequency power supply. Measured performance of the pump at 55 Hz using either supply exhibited good quantitative agreement. For a given temperature, the peak in efficiency occurred at different flow rates as the frequency was changed, but the maximum value of efficiency was relative insensitive within 0.3% over the frequency range tested, including a scan from 45 to 78 Hz. The objectives of the FSP technology project are as follows:5 • Develop FSP concepts that meet expected surface power requirements at reasonable cost with added benefits over other options. • Establish a nonnuclear hardware-based technical foundation for FSP design concepts to reduce overall development risk. • Reduce the cost uncertainties for FSP and establish greater credibility for flight system cost estimates. • Generate the key nonnuclear products to allow Agency decision makers to consider FSP as a viable option for potential future flight development. The pump must be compatible with the liquid NaK coolant and have adequate performance to enable a viable flight system. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) was tasked with the design and fabrication of an ALIP suitable for the FSP reference mission. Under the program, a quarter-scale FSP technology demonstration is under construction to test the end-to-end conversion of simulated nuclear thermal power to usable electrical power intended to raise the entire FSP system to Technology Readiness Level 6. An ALIP for this TDU was fabricated under the direction of the INL and shipped to NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for testing at representative operating conditions. This pump was designed to meet the requirements of the TDU experiment. The ALIP test circuit (ATC) at MSFC, previously used to conduct performance evaluation on another ALIP6 was used to test the present TDU pump for the FSP Technology Development program.

Polzin, K. A.↗

Williston Basin Resource Study for Commercial-Scale Subsurface Hydrogen Storage

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the EERC’s State Energy Research Center (SERC), MPLX Operations LLC, and TC Energy Development Holdings Inc. (a subsidiary of TC Energy Corporation), studied the potential for subsurface hydrogen storage and recovery in the Williston Basin of western North Dakota. The project’s goal was to evaluate the feasibility of large-scale, secure geologic H 2 storage to support future hydrogen generation, storage, and use. This work included laboratory testing, H 2 –rock–fluid exposure experiments, literature reviews on H 2 embrittlement, and reservoir modeling and simulations. The study included an assessment of storage potential across three types of storage reservoirs using both reservoir simulation and DOE’s web-based tool SHASTA-HELP (Subsurface Hydrogen Assessment, Storage, and Technology Acceleration – Hydrogen Estimator for Logistical Planning), as well as investigation of potential H 2 production and markets for commercial-scale deployment. Building on prior EERC gas storage research, three storage options were selected for detailed evaluation: the Broom Creek Formation (a clastic saline reservoir), the Dickinson Lodgepole Mounds (DLM) complex (carbonate mud mound structures) of the Lodgepole Formation (an active oil and gas producing reservoir), and the Dunham Salt Interval of the Piper Formation (to be used for engineered salt cavern development). These targets were prioritized based on prior EERC research using datasets related to seal capacity, reservoir quality, mechanical integrity, and injectivity. Exposure tests on Broom Creek and DLM samples showed mineral dissolution and precipitation that increased brine salinity and altered reservoir rock surfaces. Although these results provide useful insight, they are limited by small sample sizes and short-term (30-day) exposure, requiring further study to assess long-term storage integrity. Salt formations were not tested because of their known nonreactivity and established mechanical stability. Results of reservoir simulations performed for a single site demonstrated that the Broom Creek Formation may be capable of receiving up to 42,000 tonnes of injected H 2 over 7 months via one well. H 2 recovery took place over 5 months, resulting in approximately 26,000 tonnes (~62% without cushion gas [CG]). This work suggests water production may be important and subsequent cycles of injection and production may perform more efficiently; however, significant site-specific work in the future is needed to assess actual reservoir performance of injection and withdrawal of H 2 storage. For oil reservoir potential, a multiple-well model was used to simulate injection of approximately 32,000 tonnes of H 2 into a single wellbore while simultaneously producing in place reservoir fluids from four offset wells to maintain reservoir pressure. The simulation results suggested a high recovery (~98%); in addition, cost advantages through existing infrastructure could be realized. Challenges in this reservoir include vi managing gas purity and leakage risks. In both scenarios, production of H 2 takes place in a single-well scenario with 10 cycles (7 months of injection and 5 months of production) over 10 years. Finally, the use of engineered caverns in the Dunhan Salt was evaluated, and the results suggest that while they have a smaller capacity (<1000 tonnes per cavern), they exhibit nearly complete gas recovery (>99%), fast response times, and low purity risk. While caverns in North Dakota may be smaller in capacity, fields can be developed in galleries to accommodate the volumetric needs and rapid turnaround times necessary to meet market demands. Geographic limitations and thin salt intervals in North Dakota may represent less total storage potential than salt domes elsewhere, but significant opportunities exist to expand this market for gas storage in North Dakota. A basinwide assessment was performed to estimate a first-of-its-kind value for H 2 storage on a large scale. DOE’s SHASTA-HELP, combined with EERC simulation work, was used to perform the assessment. Estimated H 2 storage potential varied widely for each formation type. The Broom Creek saline formation was estimated to have a storage potential of approximately 1.7–90.5 million tonnes (MMt). The DLM oil reservoirs were estimated to have 0.07–0.19 MMt of capacity. Notably, each of these estimates relies on significant assumptions regarding reservoir thickness, porosity, permeability, and CG needed for operation. Much research is needed to understand the true site-specific storage resource potential of each formation. Using the Dunham Salt Interval for cavern development may result in as much as 4.79 MMt (up to 2.87 MMt working gas) of H 2 storage potential. An important note for consideration is that the values presented here need significantly more geological characterization and engineering assessments prior to gaining confidence in performance. This will be a focal point for future research and development needs. The basinwide evaluation also indicated that North Dakota has significant H 2 generation potential, with estimates up to a possible 13 MMt annually, suggesting a substantial opportunity for H 2 market development and thus the need for commercial-scale H 2 storage to facilitate growth and resilience. Key Recommendations 1. Conduct detailed site characterization (3D seismic, well logs, core sampling) to reduce geologic uncertainty. 2. Perform techno-economic analyses incorporating market, regulatory, and incentive frameworks. 3. Investigate long-term interactions among H 2 , CGs, well materials, and formations to assess risks. 4. Develop pilot- and field-scale demonstrations to validate models and establish best practices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Nine Canyon Long-Duration Energy Storage: A Feasibility Study

The Nine Canyon Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) Feasibility Study explores the technical and economic viability of deploying advanced energy storage technologies at Energy Northwest's (EN) Nine Canyon (9C) Wind Project site in Benton County, Washington. Supported by the Washington State Department of Commerce and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity under its LDES Voucher Program, the study represents a collaborative effort between EN, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and ARES North America. At the core of this effort is the development of a generalized techno-economic modeling framework and evaluation tool designed to assess the value proposition of LDES projects across a variety of contexts. The modeling tool is technology-agnostic and accommodates user-defined parameters such as rated power, energy duration, round-trip efficiency, capital and operational costs, and dispatch constraints. It also integrates economic inputs, including market prices, energy revenue structures, and financing parameters to evaluate performance through key metrics. The tool provides utilities with a transparent, adaptable platform to support decision-making, investment prioritization, and portfolio planning for various storage technologies. To guide scenario design and interpretation, the study first surveyed the LDES technology landscape, including lithium-ion batteries, flow batteries, non-hydro gravity storage, and thermo-mechanical systems, comparing cost trajectories, technical performance, safety and hazards, materials sourcing and recyclability, and spatial/siting considerations. This literature-grounded review highlights technology trade-offs and reinforces the need to align technology choice with site characteristics, use cases, and project objectives. A companion chapter examines ownership structures (EN ownership, third-party ownership, shared models) and offtake options (energy marketing, capacity/energy PPAs, time-of-use PPAs, block-delivery PPAs, and tolling), where PPAs (power purchase agreements) represent contractual arrangements for buying and selling electricity. The chapter also highlights implications for risk allocation, capital access, operational control, and revenue certainty. The study also evaluates supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and transmission interconnection pathways, options include upgrading the existing SCADA or deploying a dedicated LDES controller, with attention to protection schemes, data telemetry, cybersecurity, and regulatory coordination with BPA. In addition, an ARES-specific geotechnical and hydrology assessment presented in the appendix screens multiple corridors for slope stability, bearing capacity, cut-and-fill magnitude, and stormwater behavior.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Next Generation Microbiology Requirements

As humans continue to explore deep into space, microorganisms will travel with them. The primary means to mitigate the risk of infectious disease are a combination of prudent spacecraft design and rigorous operational controls. The effectiveness of these methods are evaluated by microbiological monitoring of spacecraft, food, water, and the crew that is performed preflight, in-flight, and post-flight. Current NASA requirements associated with microbiological monitoring are based on culture-based methodology where microorganisms are grown on a semi-solid growth medium and enumerated. Subsequent identification of the organisms requires specialized labor and large equipment, which historically has been performed on Earth. Requirements that rely strictly on culture-based units limit the use of non-culture based monitoring technology. Specifically, the culture-based "measurement criteria" are Colony Forming Units (CFU, representing the growth of one microorganism at a single location on the agar medium) per a given volume, area, or sample size. As the CFU unit by definition is culture-based, these requirements limit alternative technologies for spaceflight applications. As spaceflight missions such as those to Mars extend further into space, culture-based technology will become difficult to implement due to the (a) limited shelf life of the culture media, (b) mass/volume necessary to carry these consumables, and (c) problems associated with the production of biohazardous material in the habitable volume of the spacecraft. In addition, an extensive amount of new knowledge has been obtained during the Space Shuttle, NASA-Mir, and International Space Station Programs, which gave direction for new or modified microbial control requirements for vehicle design and mission operations. The goal of this task is to develop and recommend a new set of requirements for vehicle design and mission operations, including microbiological monitoring, based upon "lessons learned" and new technology. During 2011, this study focused on evaluating potable water requirements by assembling a forum of internal and external experts from NASA, other federal agencies, and academia. Key findings from this forum included: (1) Preventive design and operational strategies should be stringent and the primary focus of NASA's mitigation efforts, as they are cost effective and can be attained with conventional technology. (2) Microbial monitoring hardware should be simple and must be able to measure the viability of microorganisms in a sample. Multiple monitoring technologies can be utilized as long as at the microorganisms being identified can also be confirmed as viable. (3) Evidence showing alterations in the crew immune function and microbial virulence complicates risk assessments and creates the need for very conservative requirements. (4) One key source of infectious agents will always be the crew, and appropriate preventative measures should be taken preflight. (5) Water systems should be thoroughly disinfected (sterilized if possible) preflight and retain a residual biocide throughout the mission. Future forums will cover requirements for other types of samples, specifically spaceflight food and environmental samples, such as vehicle air and vehicle and cargo surfaces. An interim report on the potable water forum has been delivered to the Human Research Program with a final report on the recommendations for all sample types being delivered in September 2013.

Ott, C. M.↗

A conservative approach to scaling magneto-inertial fusion concepts to larger pulsed-power drivers

The Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) experimental platform [M. R. Gomez et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 155003 (2014)] represents the most successful demonstration of magneto-inertial fusion (MIF) techniques to date in pursuit of ignition and significant fusion yields. The pressing question remains regarding how to scale MIF concepts like MagLIF to more powerful pulsed-power drivers while avoiding significant changes in physical regimes that could adversely impact performance. In this work, we propose a conservative approach for scaling general MIF implosions, including MagLIF. Underpinning our scaling approach is a theoretical framework describing the evolution of the trajectory and thickness of a thin-walled, cylindrical, current-driven shell imploding on preheated, adiabatic fuel. By imposing that scaled implosions remain self-similar, we obtain a set of scaling rules expressing key target design parameters and performance metrics as functions of the maximum driver current I max . We identify several scaling paths offering unique, complementary benefits and trade-offs in terms of physics risks and driver requirements. Remarkably, when scaling present-day experiments to higher coupled energies, these paths are predicted to preserve or reduce the majority of known performance-degrading effects, including hydrodynamic instabilities, impurity mix, fuel energy losses, and laser-plasma interactions, with notable exceptions clearly delineated. In the absence of α heating, our scaling paths exhibit neutron yield per-unit-length scaling as $\tilde{Y}$∝[I$3\atop{max}$,I${4.14}\atop{max}$] and ignition parameter scaling as χ∝[I max ,I${2.14}\atop{max}$]. By considering the specific physics risks unique to each scaling path, we provide a roadmap for future investigations to evaluate different scaling options through detailed numerical studies and scaling-focused experiments on present-day facilities. Overall, these results highlight the potential of MIF as a key component of the national ignition effort.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Statistical Considerations for the Design and Execution of NASA's Community Noise Surveys

The World Health Organization defines community noise as noise emitted from all sources apart from noise at an industrial workplace. Example sources include neighborhood and construction noise, noise from road and rail, and air traffic noise. In particular, overland supersonic flights have been banned in the United States since the 1970s based on data accumulated during the 1960s; the degree of reported annoyance from the resulting sonic booms was a key factor leading to the prohibition. In subsequent years, scientific and engineering understanding has led to the potential to produce low amplitude sonic booms, or ‘sonic thumps’, during supersonic flight through aircraft design choices. Aircraft manufacturers have expressed renewed interest in producing supersonic commercial aircraft, but without appropriate changes to regulation, only overseas routes can be traveled supersonically. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) will be flying the X-59 demonstrator aircraft in a series of community tests to begin in the 2024 fiscal year. In this presentation we provide some historical context for the current prohibitions on supersonic commercial flight. Using data collected during earlier NASA risk reduction tests, we demonstrate how generalized linear mixed models can be used to inform the functional dose-response response curve. Finally, we discuss some of the challenges in designing the future community studies and generalizing them to a nationally-representative dose-response curve. The study effort will be of national and international importance as the data and models prepared during the community tests will be provided to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in order to help noise regulators determine if supersonic flight will be permitted over land once again and at what demonstrable noise levels.

Nathan B Cruze↗

Learning Lessons from the X-37 Project

The X-37 was planned as an automated vehicle capable of flight-testing new aerospace technologies in combined environments that are beyond the capability of existing ground or flight platforms. Flight demonstration with the X-37 architecture and configuration in relevant environments was planned to reduce the risk of developing launch vehicle technologies for sustainable, affordable exploration and other aerospace applications. Current plans are for the X-37 Approach and Landing Test Vehicle (ALTV) to be atmospheric tested in 2005 from Scaled Composite's White Knight carrier aircraft at up to 40,000 feet over California's Mojave Spaceport, with and turnaround maintenance performed. The fight Operations Control Center will conduct the mission, using a streamlined operations concept. Taxi-tow and captive-carry tests will be conducted prior to the atmospheric-test series. Sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) with NASA participation, technical objectives are to: (1) mature Computed Air Data System/Remote Pressure Sensor technology, (2) manage energy during Terminal Area Energy Management/Heading Alignment Cone maneuvers, and (3) validate the aerodatabase. The X-37 Project began in 1999 under a cooperative agreement as an element of NASA's Future X Program and transitioned to a NASA Research Announcement under the Space Launch Initiative. In mid-2004, NASA transferred ownership to DARPA, with its heritage of performing high-risk, high-payoff research and development. NASA contributes technical expertise, including risk analysis and system integration. The Boeing Company is the prime contractor, with nationwide suppliers. This recent partnership exemplifies the synergy attainable when NASA Centers, other Government agencies, and industry work together toward a common goal - contributing to the knowledge base for U.S. exploration and other aerospace endeavors. The X-37 team represents a range of space transportation disciplines - from engineering to management. Some members have been with the project since its inception. All have gained priceless experience during the design, manufacturing, and testing of the ALTV, as well as through developing advanced orbital flight technologies, such as state-of-the-art Thermal Protection Systems and hot structures. Throughout this process, the X-37 Project team captures lessons that are directly applicable to other such efforts. The upcoming ALTV flights offer another dimension of data and first-hand experience that will prove invaluable to those designing new generations of reusable spacecraft. And ongoing technology developments will expand the aerospace knowledge base. Delivering prototype hardware is always a risky proposition. During the course of the X-37 effort, the team has experienced many challenging opportunities, delivering significant accomplishments and learning numerous lessons in the process. The ability to manage the risk landscape is key to overcoming obstacles, especially technical hurdles that are encountered in progressing hardware from design to flight. The approach to managing risk under this partnership is evolving but, in general, the team allocates resources to reduce the likelihood of severe-consequence risks, thus maximizing mission success and ensuring that the X-37 Project delivers value to its stakeholders. As the team sharpens its focus on operations, it continues to contribute knowledge to those who would undertake high-risk, high-payoff research and development and provides valuable experience to implement the exploration vision.

Turner, Susan↗

Learning Lessons from the X-37 Project

The X-37 was planned as an automated vehicle capable of flight-testing new aerospace technologies in combined environments that are beyond the capability of existing ground or flight platforms. Flight demonstration with the X-37 architecture and configuration in relevant environments was planned to reduce the risk of developing launch vehicle technologies for sustainable, affordable exploration and other aerospace applications. Current plans are for the X-37 Approach and Landing Test Vehicle (ALTV) to be atmospheric tested in 2005 from Scaled Composite s White Knight carrier aircraft at up to 40,000 feet over California's Mojave Spaceport, with landing and turnaround maintenance performed. The Flight Operations Control Center will conduct the mission, using a streamlined operations concept. Taxi-tow and captive-carry tests will be conducted prior to the atmospheric-test series. Sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) with NASA participation, technical objectives are to: (1) mature Computed Air Data System/Remote Pressure Sensor technology, (2) manage energy during Terminal Area Energy Management/Heading Alignment Cone maneuvers, and (3) validate the aerodatabase. The X-37 Project began in 1999 under a cooperative agreement as an element of NASA's Future X Program and transitioned to a NASA Research Announcement under the Space Launch Initiative. In mid-2004, NASA transferred ownership to DARPA, with its heritage of performing high-risk, high-payoff research and development (R&D). NASA contributes technical expertise, including risk analysis and system integration. The Boeing Company is the prime contractor, with nationwide suppliers. This partnership exemplifies the synergy attainable when NASA Centers, other Government agencies, and industry work together toward a common goal - contributing to the knowledge base for U.S. exploration and other aerospace endeavors. The X-37 team represents a range of space transportation disciplines - from engineering to management. Some members have been with the project since its inception. All have gained priceless experience during the design, manufacturing, and testing of the ALTV, as well as through developing advanced orbital flight technologies, such as state-of-the-art Thermal Protection Systems and hot structures. Throughout this process, the X-37 Project team captures lessons that are directly applicable to other such efforts. The upcoming ALTV flights offer another dimension of data and first-hand experience that will prove invaluable to those designing new generations of reusable spacecraft. And ongoing technology developments will expand the aerospace knowledge base. Delivering prototype hardware is always a risky proposition. During the course of this effort, the X-37 team has experienced many challenging opportunities, delivering significant accomplishments and learning numerous lessons in the process. The ability to manage the risk landscape is key to overcoming obstacles, especially technical hurdles that are encountered in progressing hardware from design to flight. The approach to managing risk under this partnership is evolving but, in general, the team allocates resources to reduce the likelihood of severe-consequence risks, thus maximizing mission success and ensuring that the X-37 Project delivers value to its stakeholders. As the team sharpens its focus on operations, it continues to contribute knowledge to those who would undertake high-risk, high-payoff R&D and provides valuable experience to implement the Vision for Space Exploration.

Turner, Susan↗

NASA Space Flight Program and Project Management Handbook

This handbook is the companion document to NPR 7120.5F, NASA Space Flight Program and Project Management Requirements. It represents the accumulation of knowledge on managing program and projects derived from NASA’s human, robotic, and scientific missions. It incorporates the “corporate knowledge” for existing and future NASA space flight programs and projects, including NASA’s Artemis missions to establish a sustainable human presence on the Moon through collaboration with commercial and international partners, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) mission, and NASA’s robotic missions on Mars. The practices discussed have evolved as a function of NASA’s core values of safety, integrity, teamwork, excellence, and inclusion, and may also prove a resource for other agencies, the private sector, and academia. The knowledge gained from the Agency’s victories and defeats, including the checks and balances and initiatives to better control cost and risk, provides a foundation for continuing an exciting and healthy space program. This handbook provides implementation guidance for NPR 7120.5F and includes the changes and updates to key procedural requirements in NPR 7120.5F since NPR 7120.5E. The goal of the NPR requirements is to ensure programs and projects are developed and successfully executed in the most cost-effective and efficient manner possible. This handbook provides context, rationale, and explanation to facilitate the application of requirements and to pass on some of the hard-won best practices and lessons learned.

Tracy L Osborne↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Cell Free and Immobilization Technologies (CFIT)

Today, several key factors negatively impact the production of fuels and chemicals from renewable sources. Common hindrances in the biological production of biochemicals are: (1) end-product or intermediate toxicity to the microbial biocatalyst, (2) the diversion of carbon to biomass formation, and (3) co-production of undesired byproducts. A particularly attractive alternative is to eliminate the biocatalyst entirely and instead operate the desired metabolic pathways in isolation, thus circumventing the roadblocks of biological toxicity, lower yields, and lack of specificity. However, cell-free enzyme systems still suffer from low productivities owing in part to the effects of free diffusion of intermediates, lack of long term enzyme stability, cofactor cost or inefficient recycling rates, and finally, the cost of enzyme production/purification. This project represents a new effort to propose innovative and cost competitive routes to producing biochemicals from a variety of feedstocks using cell free approaches. These routes will help reduce the current risk and cost associated with classical cell free production. Cell free technologies show promise for application to the production of toxic/inhibitory products or products difficult to separate from microbial growth media and can help reduce the production barriers in multiple areas of biological conversion of feedstocks to biochemicals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Fission Surface Power Technology Development Testing at NASA's Early Flight Fission Test Facility

Fission surface power (FSP) systems could be used to provide power anytime, anywhere on the surface of the Moon or Mars. FSP systems could be used at polar locations, at locations away from the poles, or in permanently shaded regions, with excellent performance at all sites. A potential reference 40 kWe option has been devised that is cost-competitive with alternatives while providing more power for less mass anywhere on the lunar surface. The reference FSP system (FSPS) is also readily extensible for use on Mars. At Mars the system would be capable of operating through global dust storms and providing year-round power at any Martian latitude. Under the NASA Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP), NASA and the Department of Energy (DOE) have begun technology development on Fission Surface Power (FSP). The primary customer for this technology is the NASA Constellation Program which is responsible for the development of surface systems to support human exploration on the moon and Mars. The objectives of the FSP technology project are: 1) Develop FSP concepts that meet expected surface power requirements at reasonable cost with added benefits over other options. 2) Establish a hardware-based technical foundation for FSP design concepts and reduce overall development risk. 3) Reduce the cost uncertainties for FSP and establish greater credibility for flight system cost estimates. 4) Generate the key products to allow Agency decision-makers to consider FSP as a viable option for flight development. To be mass efficient, FSP systems must operate at higher coolant temperatures and use different types of power conversion than typical terrestrial systems. The primary reason is the difficulty in rejecting excess heat to space. Although many options exist, NASA s current reference FSP system uses a fast spectrum, pumped-NaK cooled reactor coupled to a Stirling power conversion subsystem. The reference system uses technology with significant terrestrial heritage while still providing excellent performance on the surface of the moon or Mars. Recent testing at NASA s Early Flight Fission Test Facility (EFF-TF) has helped assess the viability of the reference FSP system, and has helped evaluate methods for system integration. In June, 2009, a representative pumped NaK loop (provided by Marshall Space Flight Center) was coupled to a Stirling power converter (provided by Glenn Research Center) and tested at various conditions representative of those that would be seen during actual FSP system operation. In all areas, performance of the integrated system exceeded project goals. High-temperature NaK pump testing has also been performed at the EFF-TF, as has testing of methods for providing long-duration NaK purity.

Houts. Michael G.↗

The Need for Analogue Missions in Scientific Human and Robotic Planetary Exploration

With the increasing challenges of planetary missions, and especially with the prospect of human exploration of the moon and Mars, the need for earth-based mission simulations has never been greater. The current focus on science as a major driver for planetary exploration introduces new constraints in mission design, planning, operations, and technology development. Analogue missions can be designed to address critical new integration issues arising from the new science-driven exploration paradigm. This next step builds on existing field studies and technology development at analogue sites, providing engineering, programmatic, and scientific lessons-learned in relatively low-cost and low-risk environments. One of the most important outstanding questions in planetary exploration is how to optimize the human and robotic interaction to achieve maximum science return with minimum cost and risk. To answer this question, researchers are faced with the task of defining scientific return and devising ways of measuring the benefit of scientific planetary exploration to humanity. Earth-based and spacebased analogue missions are uniquely suited to answer this question. Moreover, they represent the only means for integrating science operations, mission operations, crew training, technology development, psychology and human factors, and all other mission elements prior to final mission design and launch. Eventually, success in future planetary exploration will depend on our ability to prepare adequately for missions, requiring improved quality and quantity of analogue activities. This effort demands more than simply developing new technologies needed for future missions and increasing our scientific understanding of our destinations. It requires a systematic approach to the identification and evaluation of the categories of analogue activities. This paper presents one possible approach to the classification and design of analogue missions based on their degree of fidelity in ten key areas. Various case studies are discussed to illustrate the approach.

Snook, K. J.↗

Inventory of Public Key Cryptography in US Electric Vehicle Charging

Electric vehicles (EVs) and charging infrastructure are networked systems, which employ high-level communications in support of charging and grid service decisions. Public key cryptography (PKC) underlies much of the security and privacy protections of the information exchange. We are entering a new epoch where quantum computing threats must be seriously considered. A sufficiently large quantum computer, so named Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer (QRQC), will be able to perform the mathematical operations to efficiently attack the underpinnings of traditional PKC, thus jeopardizing the digital foundations for trust, communications security, and data security. Estimates suggest a QRQC can break public key encryption and digital signatures in the manner of tens to hundreds of hours, compared to traditional computing that would demand more than 10 18 years in a brute force-style attack. A consensus belief of quantum theorists, quantum experimenters, and cryptographers suggest that the quantum threat will be likely realized in the next twenty years. To address the threat, post-quantum cryptography, which is cryptosystems that are designed to be secure against both traditional and quantum computing threats, must be adopted. Migration from traditional PKC to quantum-resilient cryptography is a global undertaking and likely represents the largest transition in computing history. The nascent state of EV public key infrastructure, combined with limited adoption of the vehicle secure charging features, presents an opportunity to establish a preference for quantum-resistant cryptography as a step on the migration path. Delays will stunt the efforts as rapidly accelerating EVs sales and huge infrastructure investments will create large growing bases of long-lived vehicles and infrastructure. Migration preparations can commence while NIST continues the process to standardize post-quantum cryptography (PQC), which are quantum-resilient algorithms designed to be secure against traditional and quantum computing threats. The first step in preparing EV charging is to identify the presence of traditional public key cryptography algorithms and applications. With this objective in mind, this report is intended to advise the vehicle manufacturers, charging station manufacturers, charging station operators, charge network providers and other EV charging stakeholders with information on traditional PKC application and the potential risks when PKC becomes insecure. This report, the first in a series of reports discussing the topics existing at the confluence of post-quantum cryptography adoption and EV charging, identifies traditional public key applications employed and identifies potential consequences of leaving EV charging infrastructure vulnerable to quantum computing. The focus remains squarely on the of EV charging and infrastructure with respect to PKC and is believed by the authors to complement the NIST SP 1800-38 Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography. While the report is centered on infrastructure, there are implications to vehicles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Direct Data Distribution From Low-Earth Orbit

NASA Lewis Research Center (LeRC) is developing the space and ground segment technologies necessary to demonstrate a direct data distribution (1)3) system for use in space-to-ground communication links from spacecraft in low-Earth orbit (LEO) to strategically located tracking ground terminals. The key space segment technologies include a K-band (19 GHz) MMIC-based transmit phased array antenna, and a multichannel bandwidth- and power-efficient digital encoder/modulate with an aggregate data rate of 622 Mb/s. Along with small (1.8 meter), low-cost tracking terminals on the ground, the D3 system enables affordable distribution of data to the end user or archive facility through interoperability with commercial terrestrial telecommunications networks. The D3 system is applicable to both government and commercial science and communications spacecraft in LEO. The features and benefits of the D3 system concept are described. Starting with typical orbital characteristics, a set of baseline requirements for representative applications is developed, including requirements for onboard storage and tracking terminals, and sample link budgets are presented. Characteristics of the transmit array antenna and digital encoder/modulator are described. The architecture and components of the tracking terminal are described, including technologies for the next generation terminal. Candidate flights of opportunity for risk mitigation and space demonstration of the D3 features are identified.

Budinger, James M.↗

Evolution of Space Shuttle Range Safety (RS) Ascent Flight Envelope Design

Ascent flight envelopes are trajectories that define the normal operating region of a space vehicle s position from liftoff until the end of powered flight. They fulfill part of the RS data requirements imposed by the Air Force s 45th Space Wing (45SW) on space vehicles launching from the Eastern Range (ER) in Florida. The 45SW is chartered to protect the public by minimizing risks associated with the inherent hazards of launching a vehicle into space. NASA s Space Shuttle program has launched 130+ manned missions over a 30 year period from the ER. Ascent envelopes were delivered for each of those missions. The 45SW envelope requirements have remained largely unchanged during this time. However, the methodology and design processes used to generate the envelopes have evolved over the years to support mission changes, maintain high data quality, and reduce costs. The evolution of the Shuttle envelope design has yielded lessons learned that can be applied to future endevours. There have been numerous Shuttle ascent design enhancements over the years that have caused the envelope methodology to evolve. One of these Shuttle improvements was the introduction of onboard flight software changes implemented to improve launch probability. This change impacted the preflight nominal ascent trajectory, which is a key element in the RS envelope design. While the early Shuttle nominal trajectories were designed preflight using a representative monthly mean wind, the new software changes involved designing a nominal ascent trajectory on launch day using real-time winds. Because the actual nominal trajectory position was not known until launch day, the envelope analysis had to be customized to account for this nominal trajectory variation in addition to the other envelope components.

Brewer, Joan D.↗

Deep Learning Advances Arctic River Water Temperature Predictions

The accelerated warming in the Arctic poses serious risks to freshwater ecosystems by altering streamflow and river thermal regimes. However, limited research on Arctic River water temperatures exists due to data scarcity and the absence of robust methodologies, which often focus on large, major river basins. To address this, we leveraged the newly released, extensive AKTEMP data set and advanced machine learning techniques to develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. By incorporating ERA5-Land reanalysis data and integrating physical understanding into data-driven processes, our model advanced river water temperature predictions in ungauged, snow- and permafrost-affected basins in Alaska. Our model outperformed existing approaches in high-latitude regions, achieving a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.95 and root mean squared error of 1.0°C. The LSTM model learned air temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation, and thermal radiation—factors associated with energy balance—were the most important drivers of river temperature dynamics. Soil moisture and snow water equivalent were highlighted as critical factors representing key processes such as thawing, melting, and groundwater contributions. Glaciers and permafrost were also identified as important covariates, particularly in seasonal river water temperature predictions. Our LSTM model successfully captured the complex relationships between hydrometeorological factors and river water temperatures across varying timescales and hydrological conditions. This scalable and transferable approach can be potentially applied across the Arctic, offering valuable insights for future conservation and management efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗