SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Risk Resource”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2012

Review and Assessment of JPL's Thermal Margins

JPL has captured its experience from over four decades of robotic space exploration into a set of design rules. These rules have gradually changed into explicit requirements and are now formally implemented and verified. Over an extended period of time, the initial understanding of intent and rationale for these rules has faded and rules are now frequently applied without further consideration. In the meantime, mission classes and their associated risk postures have evolved, coupled with resource constraints and growing design diversity, bringing into question the current "one size fits all" thermal margin approach. This paper offers a systematic review of the heat flow path from an electronic junction to the eventual heat rejection to space. This includes the identification of different regimes along this path and the associated requirements. The work resulted in a renewed understanding of the intent behind JPL requirements for hot thermal margins and a framework for relevant considerations, which in turn enables better decision making when a deviation to these requirements is considered.

derating↗

NASA NTRS2018

Monitoring Intense Thunderstorms in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region

Some of the most extreme thunderstorms on the planet routinely occur in the Hindu-Kush Himalaya (HKH) region— where many government organizations lack the resources needed to fully assess the risk associated with hazards that result from high impact convective weather. This project combines innovative numerical weather prediction, satellite-based precipitation and land imagery techniques into a high impact weather assessment tool kit (HIWAT) that is building the capabilities of national meteorological departments and other weather sensitive agencies in the HKH region to predict, observe and effectively respond to threats and impacts posed by thunderstorms that affect the region, thereby enhancing extreme weather resilience in the region.

extreme weather↗

NASA NTRS2019

Radiation Hardness Assurance: Evolving for NewSpace

During the past decade, numerous small satellites have been launched into space, with dramatically expanded dependence on advanced commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies and systems required for mission success. While the radiation effects vulnerabilities of small satellites are the same as those of their larger, traditional relatives, revised approaches are needed for risk management because of differences in technical requirements and programmatic resources. While moving to COTS components and systems may reduce direct costs and procurement lead times, it undermines many cost-reduction strategies used for conventional radiation hardness assurance (RHA). Limited resources are accompanied by a lack of radiation testing and analysis, which can pose significant risks - or worse, be neglected altogether. Small satellites have benefited from short mission durations in low Earth orbits with respect to their radiation response, but as mission objectives grow and become reliant on advanced technologies operating for longer and in harsher environments, requirements need to reflect the changing scope without hindering developers that provide new capabilities.

Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA)↗

NASA NTRS2019

Radiation Hardness Assurance: Evolving for NewSpace

During the past decade, government agencies, private companies and academic institutions, have launched hundreds of small satellites into space, with dramatically expanded dependence on advanced commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies and systems required for mission success. While the radiation effects vulnerabilities of components within small satellites are the same as those of their larger, traditional relatives, revised approaches are needed for risk management because of differences in technical requirements and programmatic resources. While moving to COTS components and systems may reduce direct costs and procurement lead times, it undermines many cost-reduction strategies used for conventional radiation hardness assurance (RHA). Limited resources are accompanied by a lack of radiation testing and analysis, which can pose significant risks. Small satellites have benefited from short mission durations in low Earth orbits with respect to their radiation response, but as mission objectives grow and become reliant on advanced technologies operating for longer and in harsher environments, requirements need to reflect the changing scope without hindering developers that provide new capabilities. In this course we suggest RHA strategies that engineers and scientists can apply to a wide range of aerospace systems, including constellations, with a focus on how to manage aggressive system scaling for smaller platforms.

Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA)↗

NASA NTRS2016

BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

Geuther, Steven C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Software Risk Identification for Interplanetary Probes

The need for a systematic and effective software risk identification methodology is critical for interplanetary probes that are using increasingly complex and critical software. Several probe failures are examined that suggest more attention and resources need to be dedicated to identifying software risks. The direct causes of these failures can often be traced to systemic problems in all phases of the software engineering process. These failures have lead to the development of a practical methodology to identify risks for interplanetary probes. The proposed methodology is based upon the tailoring of the Software Engineering Institute's (SEI) method of taxonomy-based risk identification. The use of this methodology will ensure a more consistent and complete identification of software risks in these probes.

Dougherty, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Future Challenges in Managing Human Health and Performance Risks for Space Flight

The global economy forces many nations to consider their national investments and make difficult decisions regarding their investment in future exploration. To enable safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration, we must pool global resources to understand and mitigate human health & performance risks prior to embarking on human exploration of deep space destinations. Consensus on the largest risks to humans during exploration is required to develop an integrated approach to mitigating risks. International collaboration in human space flight research will focus research on characterizing the effects of spaceflight on humans and the development of countermeasures or systems. Sharing existing data internationally will facilitate high quality research and sufficient power to make sound recommendations. Efficient utilization of ISS and unique ground-based analog facilities allows greater progress. Finally, a means to share results of human research in time to influence decisions for follow-on research, system design, new countermeasures and medical practices should be developed. Although formidable barriers to overcome, International working groups are working to define the risks, establish international research opportunities, share data among partners, share flight hardware and unique analog facilities, and establish forums for timely exchange of results. Representatives from the ISS partnership research and medical communities developed a list of the top ten human health & performance risks and their impact on exploration missions. They also drafted a multilateral data sharing plan to establish guidelines and principles for sharing human spaceflight data. Other working groups are also developing methods to promote international research solicitations. Collaborative use of analog facilities and shared development of space flight research and medical hardware continues. Establishing a forum for exchange of results between researchers, aerospace physicians and program managers takes careful consideration of researcher concerns and decision maker needs. Active participation by researchers in the development of this forum is essential, and the benefit can be tremendous. The ability to rapidly respond to research results without compromising publication rights and intellectual property will facilitate timely reduction in human health and performance risks in support of international exploration missions.

Corbin, Barbara J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Root Cause Analysis of the Data Refinement Process – Medical Conditions Capability Resource Tables

The medical system for spaceflight thus far has been designed to support missions in low earth orbit (LEO). Crew capabilities are limited and heavily dependent on the team of medical support staff at Mission Control Center (MCC) to guide diagnosis and management. However, missions to the Moon and Mars will suffer from several constraints that will make this ground support focused approach to care ineffective. In order to update and modify medical system design, NASA has relied on Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling to mitigate medical risk through trade space analysis. Specifically, capability resource tables (CRT’s) were developed to create a dataset of resources required to manage a list of accepted medical conditions significant in exploration spaceflight. With 120 conditions, this dataset contained hundreds of capabilities and thousands of resources with tens of thousands of cells of data. Initially these tables were built in excel for high throughput during development, but ultimately had to be transferred, managed, and modified into the Evidence Library database for modeling purposes. The process of collating and reviewing the Evidence Library revealed numerous errors in the dataset that had to be corrected through iterative changes. Several error types emerged during this process and can be broken into specific classifications defined as “input”, “transcription”, “structural”, “branching”, and “information”. In reviewing these error types through the root cause analysis (RCA) approach, we were able to identify the contributors to these errors which included single data review points, changing product end goals, limited software selection, time constraints and several others. By reviewing and evaluating the underlying causes we can provide possible system improvements that can be implemented for current and future data management in PRA model inputs.

A. Anderson↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High Value Risk Targets in Human System Risk

The Human System Risk Board (HSRB) has the overall responsibility for tracking the evolution of the top ~30 human system risks that it has identified to be associated with human spaceflight. The Board is also charged with maintaining a consistent, integrated process to mitigate those risks, and developing evidence-based risk posture recommendations. Each Risk Custodian Team (RCT) identifies High Value Risk Mitigation Targets (HVRMT) that have the highest likelihood or greatest impact in reducing their risk. These typically include areas where there are major gaps in knowledge or capability; or other targets that promise to yield returns worthy of investments in time, money and other resources by stakeholders interested in reducing Human System Risk. As part of the review of each risk the Board members consider and discuss the HVRMT statements, which are then approved by the Board Chair. High Value Risk Mitigation Targets can include research activities funded by the Human Research Program, but often involve recommending standards, monitoring, or other operational goals to reduce risk. This presentation will discuss common themes and highlights of the approved HVRTs to inform IWS attendees and the wider research community.

D M Buckland↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analyzing the Impact of Lunar Dust on Astronaut Health – an Update to the Risk Modeling

INTRODUCTION Lunar dust exposure is an unavoidable hazard during lunar surface operations. Given the large number of surface EVAs expected to be performed during Artemis missions, it is critical that the incidence and extent of symptoms resulting from contact with lunar dust be fully understood in order to accurately predict the resources needed to treat Artemis astronauts. The purpose of this study will be to gather the latest data regarding the risk of and severity of symptoms associated with lunar dust exposure and refine the estimates of the impact of lunar dust on astronaut health for PRA models, both those in operational use and those currently being developed. METHODS The latest data on the pathophysiologic effects of lunar dust on humans will be gathered by querying the peer-reviewed literature as well as NASA technical documents. This data will be supplemented with discussions with hardware designers regarding methods used to mitigate exposure to lunar dust during lunar surface operations. Taken together, this data will be used to refine both the estimates for exposure to lunar dust for astronauts inside and outside lunar habitats, as well as provide evidence to guide estimates for the percentage of astronauts who are exposed to lunar dust who will be symptomatic. RESULTS Querying the peer-reviewed literature and NASA technical documents will begin in October of 2024, with the goal of codifying this information by the end of October. In parallel, discussions will begin with hardware engineering teams, also in October. Using the evidence found will help refine the estimate for resources needed to treat astronauts who exhibit symptoms from lunar dust exposure. DISCUSSION Lunar dust exposure is expected to be a major risk for upcoming exploration missions that include a lunar surface interval. Until recently, most of the information to inform the risk associated with lunar dust exposure has come from anecdotal evidence from Apollo astronauts about their symptoms while on the lunar surface; however, this evidence is sparse. Newer studies are now coming out, looking at the impact of lunar dust on human physiology, including studies on effects to the immune system. Additionally, there are new engineering efforts to attempt to mitigate the exposure to lunar dust from the space suits of astronauts returning to the lunar habitat after surface operations. Thus, developing an updated risk assessment, based on our current understanding of human physiology and our current resources for risk mitigation, is prudent to best estimate overall human health and performance risk for future Artemis missions. This project will lead to an updated and more accurate assessment of the risk of lunar dust exposure for exploration missions and will therefore allow mission planners to more accurately predict resources needed for these exploration-class missions.

D M Nusbaum↗

NASA NTRS2003

Process-Based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

Singh, Brijendra↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying the Sensitivity of Condition Incidence Parameters in the Evidence Library

One approach to quantifying spaceflight risk at NASA makes use event driven probabilistic techniques. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is such a tool that estimates medical risk metrics via simulation and enables optimization of medical resources subject to mission constraints [1]. Previous analyses have informed medical set composition, exercise countermeasures, and water intake, where each analysis quantifies the risk associated with proposed variations in system design. As future mission profiles extend beyond Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) and lengthen in duration, understanding these risks and contributing factors is critical. MEDPRAT employs Monte Carlo sampling techniques to simulate missions and track the occurrence of medical events. These events follow fault-tree-like progressions through levels of severity and mitigation via medical treatment to many possible outcomes and these are reported throughout the mission. Making this possible, are the medical databases that contain evidence gathered by the Human Research Program (HRP). Quantifying the impact of uncertainty or variability in the input data is an important step in evaluating the credibility of modeling and simulation results. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of medical risk metrics with respect to the condition incidence parameters within the Evidence Library (EL) [2] as the medical database input for MEDPRAT. The medical conditions, contained in the EL, are equipped with incidence rates that describe the likelihood that the condition will occur. These incidence rates reflect historical spaceflight data or when appropriate, terrestrial data. In this presentation, we will explore how uncertainty in these rates propagate to the medical risk described by MEDPRAT. These results identify the conditions and parameters with the largest contribution to medical risks.

Ian Lim↗

NASA NTRS1993

Integrated risk management

The purpose of this report is to first present a basis or foundation for the building of an integrated risk management plan and them to present the plan. The integration referred to is across both the temporal and the hierarchical dimensions. Complexity, consequence, and credibility seem to be driving the need for the consideration of risk. Reduction of personal bias and reproducibility of the decision making process seem to be driving the consideration of a formal risk plan. While risk can be used as either a selection tool or a control tool, this paper concentrates on the selection usage. Risk relies on stated purpose. The tightness of the definition of purpose and success is directly reflected in the definition and control of risk. Much of a risk management plan could be designed by the answers to the questions of why, what, who, when, and where. However, any plan must provide the following information about a threat or risk: likelihood, consequence, predictability, reliability, and reproducibility. While the environment at NASA is seen as warm, but not hot, for the introduction of a risk program, some encouragement is seen if the following problems are addressed: no champion, no commitment of resource, confused definitions, lack of direction and focus, a hard sell, NASA culture, many choices of assessment methods, and cost. The plan is designed to follow the normal method of doing work and is structured to follow either the work break down structure or a functional structure very well. The parts of the plan include: defining purpose and success, initial threat assessment, initial risk assessment, reconciling threats and parameters, putting part of the information down and factoring the information back into the decision process as it comes back up, and developing inferences. Two major suggestions are presented. One is to build an office of risk management to be used as a resource by managers in doing the risk process. Another is to form a pilot program to try out the details in the plan and modify the method where needed.

Hunsucker, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Lunar Polar In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) as a Stepping Stone for Human Exploration

A major emphasis of NASA is to extend and expand human exploration across the solar system. While specific destinations are still being discussed as to what comes first, it is imperative that NASA create new technologies and approaches that make space exploration affordable and sustainable. Critical to achieving affordable and sustainable exploration beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) are the development of technologies and approaches for advanced robotics, power, propulsion, habitats, life support, and especially, space resource utilization systems. Space resources and how to use them, often called In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), can have a tremendous beneficial impact on robotic and human exploration of the Moon, Mars, Phobos, and Near Earth Objects (NEOs), while at the same time helping to solve terrestrial challenges and enabling commercial space activities. The search for lunar resources, demonstration of extraterrestrial mining, and the utilization of resource-derived products, especially from polar volatiles, can be a stepping stone for subsequent human exploration missions to other destinations of interest due to the proximity of the Moon, complimentary environments and resources, and the demonstration of critical technologies, processes, and operations. ISRU and the Moon: There are four main areas of development interest with respect to finding, obtaining, extracting, and using space resources: Prospecting for resources, Production of mission critical consumables like propellants and life support gases, Civil engineering and construction, and Energy production, storage, and transfer. The search for potential resources and the production of mission critical consumables are the primary focus of current NASA technology and system development activities since they provide the greatest initial reduction in mission mass, cost, and risk. Because of the proximity of the Moon, understanding lunar resources and developing, demonstrating, and implementing lunar ISRU provides a near and early opportunity to perform the following that are applicable to other human exploration mission destinations: Identify and characterize resources, how they are distributed, and the material, location and environment in which they are found; Demonstrate concepts, technologies, and hardware that can reduce the cost and risk of human exploration beyond Earth orbit; Use the Moon for operation experience and mission validation for much longer missions that are farther from Earth Develop and evolve ISRU to support sustained, economical human presence beyond Earth's orbit, including promoting space commercialization As Table 1 depicts, the Moon provides environments and resources applicable to Mars and NEOs. Two lunar ISRU resource and product pathways that have notable synergism with NEO, Phobos/Demos, and Mars ISRU are oxygen/metal extraction from regolith, and water/volatile extraction from lunar polar materials. To minimize the risk of developing and incorporating ISRU into human missions, a phased implementation plan is recommended that starts with prospecting and demonstrating critical technologies on robotic and human missions, then performing pilot scale operations (in non-mission critical roles) to enhance exploration mission capabilities, leading to full utilization of space resources in mission critical roles. Which lunar ISRU pathway is followed will depend on the results of early resource prospecting/proof-ofconcept mission(s), and long-term human exploration plans.

Sanders, Gerald B.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Anaphylaxis, Intra-Abdominal Infections, Skin Lacerations, and Behavioral Emergencies: A Literature Review of Austere Analogs for a near Earth Asteroid Mission

As space exploration is directed towards destinations beyond low-Earth orbit, the consequent new set of medical risks will drive requirements for new capabilities and more resources to ensure crew health. The Space Medicine Exploration Medical Conditions List (SMEMCL), developed by the Exploration Medical Capability element of the Human Research Program, addresses the risk of "unacceptable health and mission outcomes due to limitations of in-flight medical capabilities". It itemizes 85 evidence-based clinical requirements for eight different mission profiles and identifies conditions warranting further research and technology development. Each condition is given a clinical priority for each mission profile. Four conditions -- intra-abdominal infections, skin lacerations, anaphylaxis, and behavioral emergencies -- were selected as a starting point for analysis. A systematic literature review was performed to understand how these conditions are treated in austere, limited-resource, space-analog environments (i.e., high-altitude and mountain environments, submarines, military deployments, Antarctica, isolated wilderness environments, in-flight environments, and remote, resource-poor, rural environments). These environments serve as analogs to spaceflight because of their shared characteristics (limited medical resources, delay in communication, confined living quarters, difficulty with resupply, variable time to evacuation). Treatment of these four medical conditions in austere environments provides insight into medical equipment and training requirements for exploration-class missions.

Chough, Natacha G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Risk Assessment of Bone Fracture During Space Exploration Missions to the Moon and Mars

The possibility of a traumatic bone fracture in space is a concern due to the observed decrease in astronaut bone mineral density (BMD) during spaceflight and because of the physical demands of the mission. The Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) was developed to quantify the probability of fracture at the femoral neck and lumbar spine during space exploration missions. The BFxRM is scenario-based, providing predictions for specific activities or events during a particular space mission. The key elements of the BFxRM are the mission parameters, the biomechanical loading models, the bone loss and fracture models and the incidence rate of the activity or event. Uncertainties in the model parameters arise due to variations within the population and unknowns associated with the effects of the space environment. Consequently, parameter distributions were used in Monte Carlo simulations to obtain an estimate of fracture probability under real mission scenarios. The model predicts an increase in the probability of fracture as the mission length increases and fracture is more likely in the higher gravitational field of Mars than on the moon. The resulting probability predictions and sensitivity analyses of the BFxRM can be used as an engineering tool for mission operation and resource planning in order to mitigate the risk of bone fracture in space.

Lewandowski, Beth E.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Risk Assessment of Bone Fracture During Space Exploration Missions to the Moon and Mars

Lewandowski, Beth E.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Potassium topping cycles for stationary power

A design study was made of the potassium topping cycle powerplant for central station use. Initially, powerplant performance and economics were studied parametrically by using an existing steam plant as the bottom part of the cycle. Two distinct powerplants were identified which had good thermodynamic and economic performance. Conceptual designs were made of these two powerplants in the 1200 MWe size, and capital and operating costs were estimated for these powerplants. A technical evaluation of these plants was made including conservation of fuel resources, environmental impact, technology status, and degree of development risk. It is concluded that the potassium topping cycle could have a significant impact on national goals such as air and water pollution control and conservation of natural resources because of its higher energy conversion efficiency.

Rossbach, R. J.↗