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DOE OSTI2023

Climate Services for Agriculture: Tools for Informing Decisions Relating to Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Wine Industry

Australia’s changing climate is already impacting the agriculture sector and will continue to do so in the future. To help respond to these impacts, the Climate Services for Agriculture (CSA) platform presents readily accessible climate data, including future climate projections, relevant to specific agricultural commodities. This wine industry example aims to demonstrate the functionality and utility of the CSA for national use across a broad range of commodities. Methods and Results. The platform includes commodity-relevant climate indices designed in consultation with experts to ensure that they are as salient to producers as possible; the wine-grape specific indices include measures of growing season temperature, rainfall, extreme heat, and frost. Here, we describe the research behind the wine-grape specific indices and present sample outputs from the CSA platform for a site within a selected winegrowing region. We note the CSA platform has been developed through an extensive and continuing user engagement initiative, ensuring it meets the needs of the agriculture community as they grapple with how to make decisions based on longer term climate projections. Conclusions. Provision of past, seasonal outlook, and future climate information for Australia and for a range of important agricultural commodities can help improve on-farm planning and decision-making to respond to climate risks. The wine industry provides a leading example of how to use these data for decision-making, noting ongoing adjustments will be needed. Significance of the Study. The CSA platform brings together historical climate data, seasonal climate outlooks, and future climate projections to assist agricultural producers to better manage climate variability and climate change. It aims to nationalise this information for all major agricultural commodities in Australia. We use wine production as a demonstration case here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Use of a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model for Policy Analysis: An Uncertainty Analysis of Energy and Water

This presentation discusses some recent uncertainty assessment work being done on climate policy issues at the state level. The work is being done with the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), a new climate change policy assessment framework developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland and Seattle, Washington and College Park, Maryland. The central computaional engine of PRIMA is the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a dynamic-recursive integrated assessment model of the world economy, climate policy, and climate change that that has been regionalized to provide policy analysis down to the level of U.S. states. The PRIMA framework also includes detailed sectoral models that address issues in the energy-land-water interface geospatially at the sub-national level as the climate change and socioeconomic change occur. This presentation illustrates two uncertainty analyses conducted with GCAM and with water demand and supply components of PRIMA. The energy uncertainty analysis was conducted with GCAM alone and examines the impact of aggressive residential and commercial building equipment standards across the United States in the context of socioeconomic and climate uncertainty. The analysis focuses on the impact on future net energy service costs under aggressive standards in the residential and commercial building sectors from 2005 to 2050. The analysis uses a combination of discrete scenarios and Monte Carlo sampling approaches to address uncertainties. Results for Arizona and Florida are used to illustrate whether aggressive building equipment standards save energy and reduce net energy service costs when compared with current standards. Analysis of the output indicates a robust result under a broad range of future socioeconomic, policy, and climate scenarios. The water uncertainty analysis demonstrates a multi-model approach used to bound the prospects for future water shortages in Florida, given socioeconomic uncertainty and future water supply under a future climate. In this analysis, water demands from GCAM are coupled with a water management model that simulates regulated streamflows and water supply deficits given naturalized streamflows, water demands, and reservoir operating rules. The naturalized streamflows are simulated with a regional earth system model coupled to a river routing model. The climate is obtained from a regional climate projection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) for all of the river basins in the United States. GCAM is used in Monte Carlo mode to estimate the outer bounds of water demand given socioeconomic uncertainty and RCP 8.5 climate. Future water demand is downscaled to a river basin level for Florida in high, low, and middle cases and is compared with available water supply for the same region for RCP 8.5 climate to identify the potential location and severity of water shortages.

Climate change, policy, mitigation, impacts, uncer↗

NASA NTRS1994

Intelligent robotics can boost America's economic growth

A case is made for strategic investment in intelligent robotics as a part of the solution to the problem of improved global competitiveness for U.S. manufacturing, a critical industrial sector. Similar cases are made for strategic investments in intelligent robotics for field applications, construction, and service industries such as health care. The scope of the country's problems and needs is beyond the capability of the private sector alone, government alone, or academia alone to solve independently of the others. National cooperative programs in intelligent robotics are needed with the private sector supplying leadership direction and aerospace and non-aerospace industries conducting the development. Some necessary elements of such programs are outlined. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center (JSC) can be key players in such national cooperative programs in intelligent robotics for several reasons: (1) human space exploration missions require supervised intelligent robotics as enabling tools and, hence must develop supervised intelligent robotic systems; (2) intelligent robotic technology is being developed for space applications at JSC (but has a strong crosscutting or generic flavor) that is advancing the state of the art and is producing both skilled personnel and adaptable developmental infrastructure such as integrated testbeds; and (3) a NASA JSC Technology Investment Program in Robotics has been proposed based on commercial partnerships and collaborations for precompetitive, dual-use developments.

Erickson, Jon D.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Power market models for the clean energy transition: State of the art and future research needs

As power systems around the world are rapidly evolving to achieve decarbonization objectives, it is crucial that power system planners and operators use appropriate models and tools to analyze and address the associated challenges. This paper provides a detailed overview of the properties of power market models in the context of the clean energy transition. We review common power market model methodologies, their readiness for low- and zero-carbon grids, and new power market trends. Based on the review, we suggest model improvements and new designs to increase modeling capabilities for future grids. The paper highlights key modeling concepts related to power system flexibility, with a particular focus on hydropower and energy storage, as well as the representation of grid services, price formation, temporal structure, and the importance of uncertainty. We find that a changing resource mix, market restructuring, and growing price uncertainty require more precise modeling techniques to adequately capture the new technology constraints and the dynamics of future power markets. In particular, models must adequately represent resource opportunity costs, multi-horizon flexibility, and energy storage capabilities across the full range of grid services. Moreover, at the system level, it is increasingly important to consider sub-hourly time resolution, enhanced uncertainty representation, and introduce co-optimization for dual market clearing of energy and grid services. Likewise, models should capture interdependencies between multiple energy carriers and demand sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Policies to Spur Energy Access. Executive Summary; Volume 1, Engaging the Private Sector in Expanding Access to Electricity; Volume 2, Case Studies to Public-Private Models to Finance Decentralized Electricity Access

Government policy is one of the most important factors in engaging the private sector in providing universal access to electricity. In particular, the private sector is well positioned to provide decentralized electricity products and services. While policy uncertainty and regulatory barriers can keep enterprises and investors from engaging in the market, targeted policies can create opportunities to leverage private investment and skills to expand electricity access. However, creating a sustainable market requires policies beyond traditional electricity regulation. The report reviews the range of policy issues that impact the development and expansion of a market for decentralized electricity services from establishing an enabling policy environment to catalyzing finance, building human capacity, and integrating energy access with development programs. The case studies in this report show that robust policy frameworks--addressing a wide range of market issues--can lead to rapid transformation in energy access. The report highlights examples of these policies in action Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mali, Mexico, and Nepal.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global anthropogenic emissions (CAMS-GLOB-ANT) for the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service simulations of air quality forecasts and reanalyses

Anthropogenic emissions are the result of many different economic sectors, including transportation, power generation, industrial, residential and commercial activities, waste treatment and agricultural practices. Air quality models are used to forecast the atmospheric composition, analyze observations and reconstruct the chemical composition of the atmosphere during the previous decades. In order to drive these models, gridded emissions of all compounds need to be provided. This paper describes a new global inventory of emissions called CAMS-GLOB-ANT, developed as part of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS; https://doi.org/10.24380/eets-qd81, Soulie et al., 2023). The inventory provides monthly averages of the global emissions of 36 compounds, including the main air pollutants and greenhouse gases, at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° in latitude and longitude, for 17 emission sectors. The methodology to generate the emissions for the 2000–2023 period is explained, and the datasets are analyzed and compared with publicly available global and regional inventories for selected world regions. Depending on the species and regions, good agreements as well as significant differences are highlighted, which can be further explained through an analysis of different sectors as shown in the figures in the Supplement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Review and environmental impact assessment of green technologies for base courses in bituminous pavements

This paper provides a critical review of different approaches applied in the Belgian asphalt sector in order to reduce the environmental impact of bituminous road construction works. The focus is on (1) reusing reclaimed asphalt pavement, (2) reducing the asphalt production temperature, and (3) prolonging the service life of the pavement. Environmental impact assessment of these methods is necessary to be able to compare these approaches and understand better the ability to reduce the environmental impact during the life cycle of the road pavement. Attention should be drawn to the possible shift in environmental impact between various life cycle stages, e.g., raw material production, asphalt production, or waste treatment. Life cycle assessment is necessary to adequately assess the environmental impact of these approaches over the entire service life of the bituminous pavement. The three approaches and their implementation in the road sector in Flanders (region in Belgium) are described and the main findings from life cycle assessment studies on these subjects are discussed. It was found from the review that using reclaimed asphalt pavement in new bituminous mixtures might yield significant environmental gains. The environmental impact of the application of warm mix asphalt technologies, on the other hand, depends on the technique used. - Highlights: • Recycling, lower production temperature and durability of asphalt are investigated. • The use of RAP in new asphalt mixtures yields significant environmental advantages. • It would be beneficial to allow RAP in asphalt mixtures for wearing courses. • The use of particular additives might counteract the environmental gain from WMA. • The service life and the environmental data source influence the LCA results.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2012

U.S. Energy Service Company Industry: Market Size and Project Performance from 1990-2008

The U.S. energy service company (ESCO) industry is an example of a private sector business model where energy savings are delivered to customers primarily through the use of performance-based contracts. This study was conceived as a snapshot of the ESCO industry prior to the economic slowdown and the introduction of federal stimulus funding mandated by enactment of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). This study utilizes two parallel analytic approaches to characterize ESCO industry and market trends in the U.S.: (1) a ?top-down? approach involving a survey of individual ESCOs to estimate aggregate industry activity and (2) a ?bottom-up? analysis of a database of ~;;3,250 projects (representing over $8B in project investment) that reports market trends including installed EE retrofit strategies, project installation costs and savings, project payback times, and benefit-cost ratios over time. Despite the onset of a severe economic recession, the U.S. ESCO industry managed to grow at about 7percent per year between 2006 and 2008. ESCO industry revenues were about $4.1 billion in 2008 and ESCOs anticipate accelerated growth through 2011 (25percent per year). We found that 2,484 ESCO projects in our database generated ~;;$4.0 billion ($2009) in net, direct economic benefits to their customers. We estimate that the ESCO project database includes about 20percent of all U.S. ESCO market activity from 1990-2008. Assuming the net benefits per project are comparable for ESCO projects that are not included in the LBNL database, this would suggest that the ESCO industry has generated ~;;$23 billion in net direct economic benefits for customers at projects installed between 1990 and 2008. There is empirical evidence confirming that the industry is evolving by installing more comprehensive and complex measures?including onsite generation and measures to address deferred maintenance?but this evolution has significant implications for customer project economics, especially at K-12 schools. We found that the median simple payback time has increased from 1.9 to 3.2 years in private sector projects since the early-to-mid 1990s and from 5.2 to 10.5 years in public sector projects for the same time period.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2012

Evolution of the U.S. Energy Service Company Industry: Market Size and Project Performance from 1990-2008

The U.S. energy service company (ESCO) industry is an example of a private sector business model where energy savings are delivered to customers primarily through the use of performance-based contracts. This study was conceived as a snapshot of the ESCO industry prior to the economic slowdown and the introduction of federal stimulus funding mandated by enactment of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). This study utilizes two parallel analytic approaches to characterize ESCO industry and market trends in the U.S.: (1) a “top-down” approach involving a survey of individual ESCOs to estimate aggregate industry activity and (2) a “bottom-up” analysis of a database of -3,265 projects (representing over $8B in project investment) that reports market trends including installed EE retrofit strategies, project installation costs and savings, project payback times, and benefit-cost ratios over time. Despite the onset of an economic recession, the U.S. ESCO industry managed to grow at about 7% per year between 2006 and 2008. ESCO industry revenues are relatively small compared to total U.S. energy expenditures (about $4.1 billion in 2008), but ESCOs anticipated accelerated growth through 2011 (25% per year). We found that 2,484 ESCO projects in our database generated -$4.0 billion ($2009) in net, direct economic benefits to their customers. We estimate that the ESCO project database includes about 20% of all U.S. ESCO market activity from 1990-2008. Assuming the net benefits per project are comparable for ESCO projects that are not included in the LBNL database, this would suggest that the ESCO industry has generated -$23 billion in net direct economic benefits for customers at projects installed between 1990 and 2008. We found that nearly 85% of all public and institutional projects met or exceeded the guaranteed level of savings. We estimated that a typical ESCO project generated $1.5 dollars of direct benefits for every dollar of customer investment. There is empirical evidence confirming that the industry is responding to customer demand by installing more comprehensive and complex measures—including onsite generation and measures to address deferred maintenance—but this evolution has significant implications for customer project economics, especially at K-12 schools. We found that the median simple payback time has increased from 1.9 to 3.2 years in private sector projects since the early-to-mid 1990s and from 5.2 to 10.5 years in public sector projects for the same time period.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1976

Patrol force allocation for law enforcement: An introductory planning guide

Previous and current methods for analyzing police patrol forces are reviewed and discussed. The steps in developing an allocation analysis procedure are defined, including the prediction of the rate of calls for service, determination of the number of patrol units needed, designing sectors, and analyzing dispatch strategies. Existing computer programs used for this purpose are briefly described, and some results of their application are given.

Sohn, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Air Traffic Controller Acceptability of Unmanned Aircraft System Detect-and-Avoid Thresholds

A human-in-the-loop experiment was conducted with 15 retired air traffic controllers to investigate two research questions: (a) what procedures are appropriate for the use of unmanned aircraft system (UAS) detect-and-avoid systems, and (b) how long in advance of a predicted close encounter should pilots request or execute a separation maneuver. The controller participants managed a busy Oakland air route traffic control sector with mixed commercial/general aviation and manned/UAS traffic, providing separation services, miles-in-trail restrictions and issuing traffic advisories. Controllers filled out post-scenario and post-simulation questionnaires, and metrics were collected on the acceptability of procedural options and temporal thresholds. The states of aircraft were also recorded when controllers issued traffic advisories. Subjective feedback indicated a strong preference for pilots to request maneuvers to remain well clear from intruder aircraft rather than deviate from their IFR clearance. Controllers also reported that maneuvering at 120 seconds until closest point of approach (CPA) was too early; maneuvers executed with less than 90 seconds until CPA were more acceptable. The magnitudes of the requested maneuvers were frequently judged to be too large, indicating a possible discrepancy between the quantitative UAS well clear standard and the one employed subjectively by manned pilots. The ranges between pairs of aircraft and the times to CPA at which traffic advisories were issued were used to construct empirical probability distributions of those metrics. Given these distributions, we propose that UAS pilots wait until an intruder aircraft is approximately 80 seconds to CPA or 6 nmi away before requesting a maneuver, and maneuver immediately if the intruder is within 60 seconds and 4 nmi. These thresholds should make the use of UAS detect and avoid systems compatible with current airspace procedures and controller expectations.

unmanned aircraft systems↗

NASA NTRS2019

NASA Earthdata Cloud

Briefing is to highlight an overview of the NASA Earthdate Cloud with more specific details on the "Governance of Cloud Accounts", "Shared Services", Cloud ADA controls, in scope of this AWS public sector session.

Computer Operations and Hardware↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Introduction to Air Traffic Management

The presentation introduces students and faculty to air traffic management with focus on air traffic data for data-science. Starting with the common attributes of transportation systems — highway transportation, air transportation and data transportation, the initial set of slides discuss the purpose of data-science in air traffic management, reasons why air traffic management is challenging, and the multidisciplinary nature of air traffic management research. The history of flight from 1903 — Wright Flyer — to 1987 — formation of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association — is briefly discussed. The national airspace system is described in terms of airports in the U. S., air traffic control facilities (flight service stations, terminal, enroute and system command center), airspace geometry (sectors, airways and navaids), governing regulations and directives, airspace classification (Class A through G), special use airspace, visual flight rules and instrument flight rules. The contents of a flight-plan are described. Weather briefing is discussed. The surveillance equipment used for surface, terminal area and enroute are described, and the aircraft states obtained using the surveillance data are listed. Airline operations control functions — schedule development, flight planning, resource scheduling and flight following — are noted. Next, the roles and responsibilities of air traffic controllers and traffic flow managers are discussed. Separation standards and conflict resolution techniques are outlined. Finally, traffic flow management techniques are reviewed with an illustrative example.

Air Traffic Management↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Introduction to Air Traffic Management

Air Traffic Management↗

DOE OSTI2024

Droning on to Delivery: Examining the Energy Impacts of Using Drones for Moving Goods

The demand for fast, localized delivery has grown significantly in recent years. Whether for cheesy snacks, prepared food, medical solutions, or business deliveries, fast and efficient delivery is increasingly a demand and differentiator. Drone delivery in the freight sector offers to revolutionize last-mile logistics and improve services. This research analyzes the impacts of drone energy for delivery operations, aiming to compare various types of drones (large and small, rotary and VTOL) and various types of business methods. The project executes novel open-air and laboratory-based testing to look at the impacts of weights, operations, temperatures and weather conditions. The study combines this real-world experimental data with fleet optimization mathematical models to assess energy consumption of different scenarios as well as examine the minimum fleet size and additional battery requirements. These fleet optimization models compare energy between types of deployments with existing delivery methods. The model was also extended to look at mixed fleets of aerial drones and ground vehicles to accommodate different restrictions on drones or when weather prohibits their use. The analysis provided insights into factors such as drone design, payload weight, flight distance, weather conditions and operational parameters and impacts of each. It showed how to combine different types of vehicles to reduce energy and improve services. And it showed that drone speed, routing restrictions, and unfavorable weather significantly influence energy consumption. Our open experiment data and optimization models can assist stakeholders and industry in understanding drone package delivery and offers keys to improving deployment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2016

Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems: 2016 Technology Development Program Plan

The United States is in the midst of an energy revolution, spurred by advancement of technology to produce unprecedented supplies of oil and natural gas. Simultaneously, there is an increasing concern for climate change attributed to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that, in large part, result from burning fossil fuels. An international consensus has concluded that the U.S. and other developed nations have an imperative to reduce GHG emissions to address these climate change concerns. The global desire to reduce GHG emissions has led to the development and deployment of clean energy resources and technologies, particularly renewable energy technologies, at a rapid rate. At the same time, each of the major energy sectors—the electric grid, industrial manufacturing, transportation, and the residential/commercial consumers— is increasingly becoming linked through information and communications technologies, advanced modeling and simulation, and controls. Coordination of clean energy generation technologies through integrated hybrid energy systems, as defined below, has the potential to further revolutionize energy services at the system level by coordinating the exchange of energy currency among the energy sectors in a manner that optimizes financial efficiency (including capital investments), maximizes thermodynamic efficiency (through best use of exergy, which is the potential to use the available energy in producing energy services), reduces environmental impacts when clean energy inputs are maximized, and provides resources for grid management. Rapid buildout of renewable technologies has been largely driven by local, state, and federal policies, such as renewable portfolio standards and production tax credits that incentivize investment in these generation sources. A foundational assumption within this program plan is that renewable technologies will continue to be major contributors to the future U.S. energy infrastructure. While increased use of clean renewable technologies will aid in achieving reduced GHG emissions, it also presents new challenges to grid management that must be addressed. These challenges primarily derive from the fundamental characteristics of variable renewable generators, such as wind and solar: non-dispatchability, variable production, and reduced electromechanical inertia. This document presents a preliminary research and development (R&D) plan for detailed dynamic simulation and analysis of nuclear-renewable hybrid energy systems (N-R HES), coupled with integrated energy system design, component development, and integrated systems testing. N-R HES are cooperatively-controlled systems that dynamically apportion thermal and/or electrical energy to provide responsive generation to the power grid.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Understanding recent market trends of the US ESCO industry

The US energy services company (ESCO) industry is an example of a private-sector business model that delivers energy savings to customers primarily through the use of performance-based contracts. US ESCO projects garner significant incremental annual savings: approximately 1% of total US commercial building consumption in 2014. From 2000 to 2011, the industry experienced year over year growth; however, based on information drawn from interviews with ESCO executives conducted in late 2015, the authors find that from 2012 to 2014, ESCO industry revenues did not increase. While public and institutional market sectors accounted for 85% of industry revenue in 2014, consistent with previous research findings, the share of revenue from performance contracting increased to 74% in 2014, as compared to 69% share reported for 2011 and 2008. The revenue numbers between 2011 and 2014 are not fully comparable, because a few ESCOs that were subsidiaries of larger companies had undergone reorganization and some categories of revenue reported in 2011 were not included for 2014. Other factors that may have contributed to the recent revenue trend include the following: (1) increased competition from companies not historically defined as an ESCO (e.g. mechanical contractors), (2) uncertainty among some potential customers about committing to long-term performance contracts, and (3) reduction of performance contracting’s perceived benefit of hedging energy price increases and variability due to customer expectations of continued low and less volatile energy prices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Decarbonization of the Chemical Industry Through Electrification: Barriers and Opportunities

The chemical industry is a major source of economic productivity and employment globally and among the top 3 industrial sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, along with steel and cement. As global demand for chemical products continues to grow, there is an urgency to develop and deploy sustainable chemical production pathways and to reconsider continued investment in current emission-intensive production technologies. This perspective describes the challenges and opportunities to decarbonize the chemical industry via electrification powered by low-carbon electricity supply, both in the near term and long term, and it discusses four technological pathways ranging from the more mature direct substitution of heat with electricity and use of hydrogen to technologically less mature, yet potentially more selective, approaches based on electrochemistry and plasma. Finally, we highlight the key elements of integrating an electrified industrial process with the power sector to leverage process flexibility to reduce energy costs of chemical production and provide valuable power grid support services. Unlocking such plant-to-grid coordination and the four electrification pathways has significant potential to facilitate rapid and deep decarbonization of the chemical industry sector.

chemical synthesis↗