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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Field evaluation of semi‐automated moisture estimation from geophysics using machine learning

Geophysical methods can provide three-dimensional (3D), spatially continuous estimates of soil moisture. However, point-to-point comparisons of geophysical properties to measure soil moisture data are frequently unsatisfactory, resulting in geophysics being used for qualitative purposes only. This is because (1) geophysics requires models that relate geophysical signals to soil moisture, (2) geophysical methods have potential uncertainties resulting from smoothing and artifacts introduced from processing and inversion, and (3) results from multiple geophysical methods are not easily combined within a single soil moisture estimation framework. To investigate these potential limitations, an irrigation experiment was performed wherein soil moisture was monitored through time, and several surface geophysical datasets indirectly sensitive to soil moisture were collected before and after irrigation: ground penetrating radar, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and frequency domain electromagnetics (FDEM). Data were exported in both raw and processed form, and then snapped to a common 3D grid to facilitate moisture prediction by standard calibration techniques, multivariate regression, and machine learning. A combination of inverted ERT data, raw FDEM, and inverted FDEM data was most informative for predicting soil moisture using a random regression forest model (one-thousand 60/40 training/test cross-validation folds produced root mean squared errors ranging from 0.025–0.046 cm 3 /cm 3 ). This cross-validated model was further supported by a separate evaluation using a test set from a physically separate portion of the study area. Machine learning was conducive to a semi-automated model-selection process that could be used for other sites and datasets to locally improve accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Soil Water Content (m3 m-3) from Australia, June 2011 - December 2016

Hourly data processed to monthly. Data collected from Cosmic Neutron Probes at variable depth averaging 38 cm that was interpolated to near-surface (0-10 cm). Site located at latitude -14.16 deg N, longitude 131.39 deg E. Data was downloaded from the The COsmic-ray Soil Moisture Observing System (COSMOS) soil moisture data network and is publicly available. Data from this site located at, referenced as Australia (2) in Table 1 and Figure 4 of Solander et al., 2020, The pan-tropical soil moisture response to El Nino, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., in press.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity

Abstract Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45°N–65°N, during 1971–2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0–10 cm SSI during August–November, and 0–100 cm during September–April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI’s signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0–10 cm than 0–100 cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Process-based modeling of soil nitrous oxide emissions from United States corn fields under different management and climate scenarios coupled with evaluation using regional estimates

Direct emissions of soil nitrous oxide during a growing season (N 2 O gs ) can be quantified with process-based models considering interactions between management, climate, and soil moisture when key data are available. We used an adapted “parameterized CENTURY/DAYCENT-model” ( p CENTURY) calibrated with crop growth and soil organic matter decay coefficients at the county-level for the estimation of N 2 O gs in the United States Corn Belt. Model estimated N 2 O-emissions from corn-based biofuels scenarios considering crop rotation, fertilizer inputs, tillage, and weather were compared against meta-summary of field observations from 55 studies. Both model and meta-summary ranked N 2 O gs -emissions to be corn > wheat > soybean phase while model likely underestimated cover crop N 2 O gs -emissions. The N 2 O gs -emissions and the associated emission factors (EFs) were modeled and summarized to be greater after anhydrous ammonia than urea application and from conventional tilled than non-tilled fields. Modeled and observed N 2 O gs -emissions after organic and inorganic fertilizer amendment did not differ due to high variability associated with the treatments. However, the organic fertilizer associated EFs were greater according to meta-summary data because of N input rates. Regionalized weather scenarios indicate hotspots for N 2 O gs -emissions can occur where crop N uptake is limited during dry years and in eastern states also during normal or wet seasons. The p CENTURY-derived N 2 O gs EFs (0.91 ± 0.19%) for counties investigated were only slightly lower than literature (1.07 ± 0.57%) or Tier-1 (1%) values. Our preliminary evaluation of regional soil moisture estimates showed reasonable agreement between monthly soil moisture estimates and the North American Soil Moisture Dataset during the growing season, but overestimation of soil moisture in winter-spring can influence the estimates of annual N 2 O emissions so future work is needed to calibrate soil moisture-associated model parameters. Our work provided scenario-based estimates of climate and management impacts on soil N 2 O gs -emissions together with valuable spatial insights into EFs that will be improved by more accurate information of fertilizer inputs and more temporally refined model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toward Improved Regional Hydrological Model Performance Using State-Of-The-Science Data-Informed Soil Parameters

Accurate soil moisture and streamflow data are an aspirational need of many hydrologically relevant fields. Model simulated soil moisture and streamflow hold promise but models require validation prior to application. Calibration methods are commonly used to improve model fidelity but misrepresentation of the true dynamics remains a challenge. In this study, we leverage soil parameter estimates from the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database and the probability mapping of SSURGO (POLARIS) to improve the representation of hydrologic processes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) over a central California domain. Our results show WRF-Hydro soil moisture exhibits increased correlation coefficients ( r ), reduced biases, and increased Kling-Gupta Efficiencies (KGEs) across seven in situ soil moisture observing stations after updating the model's soil parameters according to POLARIS. Compared to four well-established soil moisture data sets including Soil Moisture Active Passive data and three Phase 2 North American Land Data Assimilation System land surface models, our POLARIS-adjusted WRF-Hydro simulations produce the highest mean KGE (0.69) across the seven stations. More importantly, WRF-Hydro streamflow fidelity also increases, especially in the case where the model domain is set up with SSURGO-informed total soil thickness. The magnitude and timing of peak flow events are better captured, r increases across nine United States Geological Survey stream gages, and the mean KGE across seven of the nine gages increases from 0.12 to 0.66. Our pre-calibration parameter estimate approach, which is transferable to other spatially distributed hydrological models, can substantially improve a model's performance, helping reduce calibration efforts and computational costs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling microbial carbon fluxes and stocks in global soils from 1901 to 2016

Abstract. Soil microbes play a crucial role in the carbon (C) cycle; however, they have been overlooked in predicting the terrestrial C cycle. We applied a microbial-explicit Earth system model – the Community Land Model-Microbe (CLM-Microbe) – to investigate the dynamics of soil microbes during 1901 to 2016. The CLM-Microbe model was able to reproduce the variations of gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary productivity, heterotrophic (HR) and soil (SR) respiration, microbial (MBC) biomass C in fungi (FBC) and bacteria (BBC) in the top 30 cm and 1 m, and dissolved (DOC) and soil organic C (SOC) in the top 30 cm and 1 m during 1901–2016. During the study period, simulated C variables increased by approximately 12 PgC yr−1 for HR, 25 PgC yr−1 for SR, 1.0 PgC for FBC and 0.4 PgC for BBC in 0–30 cm, and 1.2 PgC for FBC and 0.7 PgC for BBC in 0–1 m. Increases in microbial C fluxes and pools were widely found, particularly at high latitudes and in equatorial regions, but we also observed their decreases in some grids. Overall, the area-weighted averages of HR, SR, FBC, and BBC in the top 1 m were significantly correlated with those of soil moisture and soil temperature in the top 1 m. These results suggested that microbial C fluxes and pools were jointly governed by vegetation C input and soil temperature and moisture. Our simulations revealed the spatial and temporal patterns of microbial C fluxes and pools in response to environmental change, laying the foundation for an improved understanding of soil microbial roles in the global terrestrial C cycle.

He, Liyuan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changes in soil water content and lateral flow exert large effects on soil thermal dynamics across Alaskan landscapes

Both lateral surface and subsurface water flow affect soil moisture dynamics, yet most land surface models only solve subsurface water movement vertically. Here, we use a 3D ecosystem model that considers both land surface and subsurface hydrologic processes to simulate soil moisture, which is then used to drive a 1-D vertical soil thermal model to simulate the soil moisture effects on soil thermal dynamics in central Alaska. Our coupled model improves soil temperature (ST) estimates by 43.5% in comparison with observational data. Soil moisture has little effect on ST during the wet season (-1.5%) and a substantial influence during the dry season (60%). Spatially, water lateral flow has significant impacts on both soil moisture and ST, causing model estimates for thawed areas in the transition season to increase by ~10% in the study area. Our results highlight the importance of considering dynamical soil moisture, as well as lateral flow effects, on soil thermal dynamics in permafrost regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Importance of Accounting for Landscape Position When Investigating Grasslands: A Multidisciplinary Characterisation of a California Coastal Grassland

Abstract Grasslands are one of the most common land‐cover types, providing important ecosystem services globally, yet few studies have examined grassland critical‐zone functioning throughout hillslopes. This study characterised a coastal grassland over a small hillslope at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, using multidisciplinary techniques, combining remotely‐sensed, geophysical, plant, and soil measurements. Clustering techniques delineated the study area into four landscape zones, up‐, mid‐, and down‐slope, and a bordering riparian ecotone, which had distinct environmental properties that varied spatially across the site, with depth, and time. Soil moisture increased with depth and down slope towards a bordering riparian zone, and co‐varied with soil CO 2 flux rates both spatially and temporally. This highlighted three distinct controls of soil moisture on soil respiration: CO 2 fluxes were inhibited by high moisture content in the down‐slope during the wet winter months, and converged across landscape positions in the dry summer months, while also displaying post‐rain pulses. The normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) ranged from 0.32 (September)–0.80 (April) and correlated positively with soil moisture and aboveground biomass, moving down slope. Yet, NDVI, aboveground biomass, and soil moisture were not correlated to soil organic carbon (SOC) content (0.4%–4.5%), which was highest in the mid‐slope. The SOC content may instead be linked to shifts in dominant grassland species and their rhizosphere properties with landscape position. This multidisciplinary characterisation highlighted significant heterogeneity in grassland properties with landscape position, and demonstrated an approach that could be used to characterise other critical‐zone environments on hillslopes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dead but Not Forgotten: How Extracellular DNA, Moisture, and Space Modulate the Horizontal Transfer of Extracellular Antibiotic Resistance Genes in Soil

Antibiotic-resistant bacteria and the spread of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) pose a serious risk to human and veterinary health. While many studies focus on the movement of live antibiotic-resistant bacteria to the environment, it is unclear whether extracellular ARGs (eARGs) from dead cells can transfer to live bacteria to facilitate the evolution of antibiotic resistance in nature. Here, we use eARGs from dead, antibiotic-resistant Pseudomonas stutzeri cells to track the movement of eARGs to live P. stutzeri cells via natural transformation, a mechanism of horizontal gene transfer involving the genomic integration of eARGs. In sterile, antibiotic-free agricultural soil, we manipulated the eARG concentration, soil moisture, and proximity to eARGs. We found that transformation occurred in soils inoculated with just 0.25 μg of eDNA g –1 soil, indicating that even low concentrations of soil eDNA can facilitate transformation (previous estimates suggested ~2 to 40 μg eDNA g –1 soil). When eDNA was increased to 5 μg g –1 soil, there was a 5-fold increase in the number of antibiotic-resistant P. stutzeri cells. We found that eARGs were transformed under soil moistures typical of terrestrial systems (5 to 30% gravimetric water content) but inhibited at very high soil moistures (>30%). Altogether, this work demonstrates that dead bacteria and their eARGs are an overlooked path to antibiotic resistance. More generally, the spread of eARGs in antibiotic-free soil suggests that transformation allows genetic variants to establish in the absence of antibiotic selection and that the soil environment plays a critical role in regulating transformation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Environmental Co‐Benefits of Maintaining Native Vegetation With Solar Photovoltaic Infrastructure

Abstract Co‐locating solar photovoltaics with vegetation could provide a sustainable solution to meeting growing food and energy demands. However, studies quantifying multiple co‐benefits resulting from maintaining vegetation at utility‐scale solar power plants are limited. We monitored the microclimate, soil moisture, panel temperature, electricity generation and soil properties at a utility‐scale solar facility in a continental climate with different site management practices. The compounding effect of photovoltaic arrays and vegetation may homogenize soil moisture distribution and provide greater soil temperature buffer against extreme temperatures. The vegetated solar areas had significantly higher soil moisture, carbon, and other nutrients compared to bare solar areas. Agrivoltaics in agricultural areas with carbon debt can be an effective climate mitigation strategy along with revitalizing agricultural soils, generating income streams from fallow land, and providing pollinator habitats. However, the benefits of vegetation cooling effects on electricity generation are rather site‐specific and depend on the background climate and soil properties. Overall, our findings provide foundational data for site preservation along with targeting site‐specific co‐benefits, and for developing climate resilient and resource conserving agrivoltaic systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Vegetation Assimilation on Flash Drought Characteristics across the Continental United States

Predicting and managing the impacts of flash droughts is difficult owing to their rapid onset and intensification. Flash drought monitoring often relies on assessing changes in root-zone soil moisture. However, the lack of widespread soil moisture measurements means that flash drought assessments often use process-based model data like that from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Such reliance opens flash drought assessment to model biases, particularly from vegetation processes. Here, we examine the influence of vegetation on NLDAS-simulated flash drought characteristics by comparing two experiments covering 1981–2017: open loop (OL), which uses NLDAS surface meteorological forcing to drive a land surface model using prognostic vegetation, and data assimilation (DA), which instead assimilates near-real-time satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) into the land surface model. The OL simulation consistently underestimates LAI across the United States, causing relatively high soil moisture values. Both experiments produce similar geographic patterns of flash droughts, but OL produces shorter duration events and regional trends in flash drought occurrence that are sometimes opposite to those in DA. Across the Midwest and Southern United States, flash droughts are 4 weeks (about 70%) longer on average in DA than OL. Moreover, across much of the Great Plains, flash drought occurrence has trended upward according to the DA experiment, opposite to the trend in OL. This sensitivity of flash drought to the representation of vegetation suggests that representing plants with greater fidelity could aid in monitoring flash droughts and improve the prediction of flash drought transitions to more persistent and damaging long-term droughts.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2026

Influence of plateau, slope, and valley on soil hydrology during the dry season in a Central Amazon old‐growth forest

Soil moisture regulates plant water supply and drought sensitivity in tropical forests, yet its vertical and topographic variation remains poorly characterized. We combined high-frequency time-domain reflectometry measurements from 5 to 100 cm across plateau, slope, and valley landforms at the Zona Florestal 2 research site north of Manaus, Central Amazonia, to quantify how soil moisture memory, timing of responses to rainfall, dry-down rates (τ), and soil–water depletion vary across these contrasting landforms. Landform-specific soil moisture calibration curves ensured accurate volumetric water content estimates in these highly weathered soils. During the 2023 dry-to-wet transition (August–November), soil moisture memory showed strong topographic contrasts, with valley profiles increasing from ∼47 h at 5 cm to ∼154 h at 100 cm, while plateaus exhibited higher near-surface persistence (∼124 h at 5 cm) but weaker memory at depth. Dry-down behavior reinforced these differences as valley soils exhibited τ values exceeding ∼200 h, more than double the characteristic τ of plateau soils (∼90 h). Rainfall–soil moisture correlations indicated immediate responses at shallow depths in valleys and progressively longer lags with depth on plateaus and slopes. These hydrologic patterns were mirrored in depletion profiles, which declined sharply below 30 cm on plateaus but remained high and sustained throughout the upper meter in slopes and valleys. Together, these findings provide the first depth-resolved field measurements of soil moisture memory, rainfall coupling, dry-down constants, and depletion dynamics across major upland landforms in Central Amazonia and offer clear observational benchmarks for improving land-surface and ecosystem model representations of soil–water processes.

Hillslope↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Influence of Land‐Surface Conditions on the 2020–2021 Western US Drought

Abstract In summer 2021, 90% of the western United States (WUS) experienced drought, with over half of the region facing extreme or exceptional conditions, leading to water scarcity, crop loss, ecological degradation, and significant socio‐economic consequences. Beyond the established influence of oceanic forcing and internal atmospheric variability, this study highlights the importance of land‐surface conditions in the development of the 2020–2021 WUS drought, using observational data analysis and novel numerical simulations. Our results demonstrate that the soil moisture state preceding a meteorological drought, due to its intrinsic memory, is a critical factor in the development of soil droughts. Specifically, wet soil conditions can delay the transition from meteorological to soil droughts by several months or even nullify the effects of La Niña‐driven meteorological droughts, while drier conditions can exacerbate these impacts, leading to more severe soil droughts. For the same reason, soil droughts can persist well beyond the end of meteorological droughts. Our numerical experiments suggest a relatively weak soil moisture‐precipitation coupling during this drought period, corroborating the primary contributions of the ocean and atmosphere to this meteorological drought. Additionally, drought‐induced vegetation losses can mitigate soil droughts by reducing evapotranspiration and slowing the depletion of soil moisture. This study highlights the importance of soil moisture and vegetation conditions in seasonal‐to‐interannual drought predictions. Findings from this study have implications for regions like the WUS, which are experiencing anthropogenically‐driven soil aridification and vegetation greening, suggesting that future soil droughts in these areas may develop more rapidly, become more severe, and persist longer.

Jiang, Yelin [Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Col↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-year analysis of physical interactions between solar PV arrays and underlying soil-plant complex in vegetated utility-scale systems

Concerns over the land use changes impacts of solar photovoltaic (PV) development are increasing as PV energy development expands. Co-locating utility-scale solar energy with vegetation may maintain or rehabilitate the land's ability to provide ecosystem services. Previous studies have shown that vegetation under and around the panels may improve the performance of the co-located PV and that PV may create a favorable environment for the growth of vegetation. While there have been some pilot-scale experiments, the existence and magnitude of these benefits of vegetation has not been confirmed in a utility-scale PV facility over multiple years. In this study we use power output data coupled with microclimatic measurements in temperate climates to assess these potential benefits. Here this study combines multi-year microclimatic measurements to analyze the physical interactions between PV arrays and the underlying soil-vegetation system in three utility-scale PV facilities in Minnesota, USA. No significant cooling of PV panels or increased power production was observed in PV arrays with underlying vegetation. Fine soil particle fraction was the highest in soils within PV arrays with the vegetation which was attributable to the lowest wind speeds from the compounding suppression of wind by vegetation and PV arrays. Soil moisture and soil nutrient response to re-vegetation varied between PV facilities, which could be attributed to differing soil texture. No statistically significant vegetation-driven panel cooling was observed in this climate. This finding prompts a need for site-specific studies to identify contributing factors for environmental co-benefits in co-located systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Northern Hemisphere Snow Drought in Earth System Model Simulations and ERA5‐Land Data in 1980–2014

Abstract Low snow levels over the past few decades and predictions of a low‐to‐no snow future have spurred research into snow droughts, which pose a threat to water security and management. Systematic data‐model comparisons of snow drought have been lacking, hindering our understanding of the drivers of snow drought in the past. To address this gap, we analyzed snow drought events using standardized snow water equivalent index derived from monthly results of four numerical experiments using the E3SM Land Model (ELM) and ERA5‐Land data during the period of 1980–2014. Additionally, we compared snow drought duration calculated from models with those from the ERA5‐Land data during selected El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. The numerical experiments were conducted with ELM driven by two prescribed atmospheric forcings, and with the coupled land‐atmosphere configuration of E3SM with and without plant hydraulics scheme feedback. Analysis reveals that 20%–30% of snow droughts occur due to factors other than above‐normal temperature and low snowfall, such as low soil moisture, warm soil temperature, and low relative humidity, etc., especially in high latitudes (50° North). Furthermore, our study highlights the exacerbating effect of ENSO events on snow drought conditions in various regions, despite some discrepancies between model and ERA5‐Land results. We also identified limitations of the coupled land‐atmosphere models in our current configuration in capturing the spatial patterns of snow droughts. This study underscores the challenge of predicting and mitigating snow drought and the need for a comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to snow drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Permafrost thaw with warming reduces microbial metabolic capacities in subsurface soils

Abstract Microorganisms are major constituents of the total biomass in permafrost regions, whose underlain soils are frozen for at least two consecutive years. To understand potential microbial responses to climate change, here we examined microbial community compositions and functional capacities across four soil depths in an Alaska tundra site. We showed that a 5‐year warming treatment increased soil thaw depth by 25.7% ( p = .011) within the deep organic layer (15–25 cm). Concurrently, warming reduced 37% of bacterial abundance and 64% of fungal abundances in the deep organic layer, while it did not affect microbial abundance in other soil layers (i.e., 0–5, 5–15, and 45–55 cm). Warming treatment altered fungal community composition and microbial functional structure ( p < .050), but not bacterial community composition. Using a functional gene array, we found that the relative abundances of a variety of carbon (C)‐decomposing, iron‐reducing, and sulphate‐reducing genes in the deep organic layer were decreased, which was not observed by the shotgun sequencing‐based metagenomics analysis of those samples. To explain the reduced metabolic capacities, we found that warming treatment elicited higher deterministic environmental filtering, which could be linked to water‐saturated time, soil moisture, and soil thaw duration. In contrast, plant factors showed little influence on microbial communities in subsurface soils below 15 cm, despite a 25.2% higher ( p < .05) aboveground plant biomass by warming treatment. Collectively, we demonstrate that microbial metabolic capacities in subsurface soils are reduced, probably arising from enhanced thaw by warming.

Wu, Linwei↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inoculated biocrust cover and functions diverged over a gradient of soil textures and water availability

Restoring biological crust (biocrust) in disturbed drylands is challenging due to the difficult environmental conditions, such as limited soil moisture, low soil nutrients, and extreme temperatures, that impede growth. Understanding how the key components of biocrust—mosses, lichens, and cyanobacteria—react to different environmental factors informs the optimal timing, locations, and species composition for biocrust reintroduction, thereby increasing the likelihood of establishment. Here, we inoculated soils with a diverse range of biocrust organisms, analogous to seeding an area with diverse vascular plant seeds, and varied environmental conditions to observe how these changes influenced the development and functions of reintroduced biocrust. We found that by manipulating soil texture and time spent wet, we can change the proportional cover of biocrust within a restoration‐like setting. Specifically, we found that 4 months after inoculation, finer textured soils that received more water become dominated by moss cover, while coarser textured soils with less water remained dominated by cyanobacteria cover, and the interactions between texture and time spent wet strongly influenced cover. We found biocrust morphological group cover had a small, but detectable, effect on ecosystem functions (soil stability and nitrogenase activity, a proxy for nitrogen fixation), but that environmental conditions had a stronger impact on the functions we measured. Manipulative experiments in controlled environments, like this one, can help elucidate the mechanisms underlying the establishment rate and patterns of biocrusts post‐inoculation, and inform implementation of inoculations in the field.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Moist Potential Vorticity Model for Midlatitude Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems over Land

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) bring large amounts of rainfall and strong wind gusts to the midlatitude land regions, with significant impacts on local weather and hydrologic cycle. However, weather and climate models face a huge challenge in accurately modeling the MCS life cycle and the associated precipitation, highlighting an urgent need for a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of MCS initiation and propagation. From a theoretical perspective, a suitable model to capture the realistic properties of MCSs and isolate the bare-bones mechanisms for their initiation, intensification, and eastward propagation is still lacking. To simulate midlatitude MCSs over land, we develop a simple moist potential vorticity (PV) model that readily describes the interactions among PV perturbations, air moisture, and soil moisture. Multiple experiments with or without various environmental factors and external forcing are used to investigate their impacts on MCS dynamics and mesoscale circulation vertical structures. The result shows that mechanical forcing can induce lower-level updraft and cooling, providing favorable conditions for MCS initiation. A positive feedback among surface winds, evaporation rate, and air moisture similar to the wind-induced surface heat exchange over tropical ocean is found to support MCS intensification. Both background surface westerlies and vertical westerly wind shear are shown to provide favorable conditions for the eastward propagation of MCSs. Last, our result highlights the crucial role of stratiform heating in shaping mesoscale circulation response. In conclusion, the model should serve as a useful tool for understanding the fundamental mechanisms of MCS dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗