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At least 163 records · Page 9
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NASA NTRS2010

Variations in the Sun's Meridional Flow Over a Solar Cycle

The Sun's meridional flow is an axisymmetric flow that is generally directed from its equator toward its poles at the surface. The structure and strength of the meridional flow determine both the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic field and the intensity of sunspot cycles. We determine the meridional flow speed of magnetic features on the Sun using data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. The average flow is poleward at all latitudes up to 75 , which suggests that it extends to the poles. It was faster at sun spot cycle minimum than at maximum and substantially faster on the approach to the current minimum than it was at the last solar minimum. This result may help to ex plain why this solar activity minimum is so peculiar.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Effects of the equatorial ionosphere on L-band Earth-space transmissions

Ionosphere scintillation can effect satellite telecommunication up to Ku-band. Nighttime scintillation can be attributed to large-scale inhomogeneity in the F-region of the ionosphere predominantly between heights of 200 and 600 km. Daytime scintillation has been attributed to sporadic E. It can be thought of as occurring in three belts: equatorial, high-latitude, and mid-latitude, in order of severity. Equatorial scintillation occurs between magnetic latitudes +/- 25 degrees, peaking near +/- 10 degrees. It commonly starts abruptly near 2000 local time and dies out shortly after midnight. There is a strong solar cycle dependence and a seasonal preference for the equinoxes, particularly the vernal one. Equatorial scintillation occurs more frequently on magnetically quiet than on magnetically disturbed days in most longitudes. At the peak of the sunspot cycle scintillation depths as great as 20 dB were observed at L-band.

Smith, Ernest K.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Latitudinal variability of large-scale coronal temperature and its association with the density and the global magnetic field

In this paper we utilize the latitiude distribution of the coronal temperature during the period 1984-1992 that was derived in a paper by Guhathakurta et al, 1993, utilizing ground-based intensity observations of the green (5303 A Fe XIV) and red (6374 A Fe X) coronal forbidden lines from the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak, and establish it association with the global magnetic field and the density distributions in the corona. A determination of plasma temperature, T, was estimated from the intensity ratio Fe X/Fe XIV (where T is inversely proportional to the ratio), since both emission lines come from ionized states of Fe, and the ratio is only weakly dependent on density. We observe that there is a large-scale organization of the inferred coronal temperature distribution that is associated with the large-scale, weak magnetic field structures and bright coronal features; this organization tends to persist through most of the magnetic activity cycle. These high-temperature structures exhibit time-space characteristics which are similar to those of the polar crown filaments. This distribution differs in spatial and temporal characterization from the traditional picture of sunspot and active region evolution over the range of the sunspot cycle, which are manifestations of the small-scale, strong magnetic field regions.

Guhathakurta, M.↗
NASA NTRS2024

A Floor in the Sun's Photospheric Magnetic Field: Implications for an Independent Small-scale Dynamo

Clette recently showed that F 10.7 systematically approaches a quiet Sun daily value of 67 solar flux units (sfu) at solar minima as the number of spotless days on the Sun increases. Previously, a floor of ∼2.8 nT had been proposed for the solar wind (SW) magnetic field strength (B). F 10.7 , which closely tracks the Sun's unsigned photospheric magnetic flux, and SW B exhibit different relationships to their floors at 11 yr solar minima during the last ∼50 yr. While F 10.7 approaches 67 sfu at each minimum, the corresponding SW B is offset above ∼2.8 nT by an amount approximately proportional to the solar polar field strength—which varied by a factor of ∼2.5 during this interval. This difference is substantiated by ∼130 yr of reconstructed F 10.7 (via the range of the diurnal variation of the East-component (rY) of the geomagnetic field) and SW B (based on the interdiurnal variability geomagnetic activity index). For the last ∼60 yr, the contribution of the slow SW to SW B has exhibited a floor-like behavior at ∼2 nT, in contrast to the contributions of coronal mass ejections and high-speed streams that vary with the solar cycle. These observations, as well as recent SW studies based on Parker Solar Probe and Solar Dynamics Observatory data, suggest that (1) the Sun has a small-scale turbulent dynamo that is independent of the 11 yr sunspot cycle; and (2) the small-scale magnetic fields generated by this nonvarying turbulent dynamo maintain a constant open flux carried to the heliosphere by the Sun's floor-like slow SW.

Solar magnetic fields↗
NASA NTRS1972

Planetary resonances, bi-stable oscillation modes, and solar activity cycles

The natural resonance structure of the planets in the solar system yields resonance periods of 11.08 and 180 years. The 11.08 year period is due to resonance of the sidereal periods of the three inner planets. The 180-year period is due to synodic resonances of the four major planets. These periods are also observed in the sunspot time series. The 11-year sunspot cycles from 1 to 19 are separated into categories of positive and negative cycles, Mode 1 and Mode 2 cycles, and typical and anomalous cycles. Each category has a characteristic shape, magnitude, or duration, so that statistical prediction techniques are improved when a cycle can be classified in a given category. These categories provide evidence for bistable modes of solar oscillation. The next minimum is expected in 1977 and the next maximum in 1981 or later. These epoch values are 2.5 years later than those based on typical cycle characteristics.

Sleeper, H. P., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Magnetic Observations During the Recent Declining phase of Solar Activity

Changes in the heliospheric magnetic field during the recent declining phase in solar activity are reviewed and compared with observations during past sunspot cycles. The study is based principally on data obtained by IMP-8 and Ulysses. The field magnitude is found to have increased during the declining phase until it reached a maximum value of 11.5 nT in ÷ 19915, approximately two years after sunspot maximum.

Magnetic↗
NASA NTRS1985

The cyclical variation of energy flux and photospheric magnetic field strength from coronal holes

The average soft X-ray emission from coronal holes observed on images obtained during rocket flights from 1974 to 1981 is measured. The variation of this emission over the solar cycle was then compared with photospheric magnetic flux measurements within coronal holes over the same period. It was found that coronal hole soft X-ray emission could be detected and that this emission appeared to increase with the rise of the sunspot cycle from activity minimum to maximum. These quantitative results confirmed previous suggestions that the coronal brightness contrast between holes and large-scale structure decreased during this period of the cycle. Gas pressures at the hole base were estimated for assumed temperatures and found to vary from about 0.03 dyne/sq cm in 1974 to 0.35 dyne/sq cm in 1981. The increase in coronal hole X-ray emission was accompanied by a similar trend in the surface magnetic flux of near-equatorial holes between 1975 and 1980 (Harvey et al., 1982).

Webb, D. F.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Solar activity and modulation of the cosmic ray intensity

Since its discovery by Forbush (1954), the 11-year cycle modulation of the cosmic ray intensity has been studied extensively. Bowe and Hatton (1982) obtained a well-behaved transfer function F between the solar activity S and the cosmic ray intensity modulation Io-I. They suggested that the 11-year variation for sunspot cycle 20 can be attributed to the modulating effect of solar flare-induced shocks propagating through the heliosphere. The cosmic ray intensity in the absence of solar activity is denoted by Io, while I denotes the observed intensity. Bowe and Hatton infer that the boundary of the heliosphere is located at a distance of 70-90 AU. Since their conclusion is of great importance in understanding the mechanism of the 11-year modulation, the present investigation is concerned with a repetition of their study for two cycles, taking into account the use of a slightly modified method. The obtained results confirm the conclusions reached by Bowe and Hatton that there is a well-behaved transfer function for solar flares.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The solar cycle variation of coronal mass ejections and the solar wind mass flux

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are an important aspect of coronal physics and a potentially significant contributor to perturbations of the solar wind, such as its mass flux. Sufficient data on CMEs are now available to permit study of their longer-term occurrency patterns. Here we present the results of a study of CME occurrence rates over more than a complete 11-year solar sunspot cycle and a comparison of these rates with those of other activity related to CMEs and with the solar wind particle flux at 1 AU. The study includes an evaluation of correlations to the CME rates, which include instrument duty cycles, visibility functions, mass detection thresholds, and geometrical considerations. The main results are as follows: (1) The frequency of occurrence of CMEs tends to track the solar activity cycle in both amplitude and phase; (2) the CME rates from different instruments, when corrected for both duty cycles and visibility functions, are reasonably consistent; (3) considering only longer-term averages, no one class of solar activity is better correlated with CME rate than any other; (4) the ratio of the annualized CME to solar wind mass flux tends to track the solar cycle; and (5) near solar maximum, CMEs can provide a significant fraction (i.e., approximately equals 15%) of the average mass flux to the near-ecliptic solar wind.

Webb, David F.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Global trends

Measuring trends in ozone, and most other geophysical variables, requires that a small systematic change with time be determined from signals that have large periodic and aperiodic variations. Their time scales range from the day-to-day changes due to atmospheric motions through seasonal and annual variations to 11 year cycles resulting from changes in the sun UV output. Because of the magnitude of all of these variations is not well known and highly variable, it is necessary to measure over more than one period of the variations to remove their effects. This means that at least 2 or more times the 11 year sunspot cycle. Thus, the first requirement is for a long term data record. The second related requirement is that the record be consistent. A third requirement is for reasonable global sampling, to ensure that the effects are representative of the entire Earth. The various observational methods relevant to trend detection are reviewed to characterize their quality and time and space coverage. Available data are then examined for long term trends or recent changes in ozone total content and vertical distribution, as well as related parameters such as stratospheric temperature, source gases and aerosols.

Megie, G.↗
NASA NTRS2014

On the Relationship Between Global Land-Ocean Temperature and Various Descriptors of Solar-Geomagnetic Activity and Climate

Examined are sunspot cycle- (SC-) length averages of the annual January-December values of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index ( ) in relation to SC-length averages of annual values of various descriptors of solar-geomagnetic activity and climate, incorporating lags of 0-5 yr. For the overall interval SC12-SC23, the is inferred to correlate best against the parameter incorporating lag = 5 yr, where the parameter refers to the resultant aa value having removed that portion of the annual aa average value due to the yearly variation of sunspot number (SSN). The inferred correlation between the and is statistically important at confidence level cl > 99.9%, having a coefficient of linear correlation r = 0.865 and standard error of estimate se = 0.149 degC. Excluding the most recent cycles SC22 and SC23, the inferred correlation is stronger, having r = 0.969 and se = 0.048 degC. With respect to the overall trend in the , which has been upwards towards warmer temperatures since SC12 (1878-1888), solar-geomagnetic activity parameters are now trending downwards (since SC19). For SC20-SC23, in contrast, comparison of the against SC-length averages of the annual value of the Mauna Loa carbon dioxide ( ) index is found to be highly statistically important (cl >> 99.9%), having r = 0.9994 and se = 0.012 degC for lag = 2 yr. On the basis of the inferred preferential linear correlation between the and , the current ongoing SC24 is inferred to have warmer than was seen in SC23 (i.e., >0.526 degC), probably in excess of 0.68 degC (relative to the 1951-1980 base period).

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Solar cycle variations of the solar wind

Throughout the course of the past one and a half solar cycles, solar wind parameters measured near the ecliptic plane at 1 AU varied in the following way: speed and proton temperature have maxima during the declining phase and minima at solar minimum and are approximately anti-correlated with number density and electron temperature, while magnetic field magnitude and relative abundance of helium roughly follow the sunspot cycle. These variations are described in terms of the solar cycle variations of coronal holes, streamers, and transients. The solar wind signatures of the three features are discussed in turn, with special emphasis on the signature of transients, which is still in the process of being defined. It is proposed that magnetic clouds be identified with helium abundance enhancements and that they form the head of a transient surrounded by streamer like plasma, with an optional shock front. It is stressed that relative values of a parameter through a solar cycle should be compared beginning with the declining phase, especially in the case of magnetic field magnitude.

Crooker, N. U.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700-1992

From satellite observations the solar total irradiance is known to vary. Sunspot blocking, facular emission, and network emission are three identified causes for the variations. In this paper we examine several different solar indices measured over the past century that are potential proxy measures for the Sun's irradiance. These indices are (1) the equatorial solar rotation rate, (2) the sunspot structure, the decay rate of individual sunspots, and the number of sunspots without umbrae, and (3) the length and decay rate of the sunspot cycle. Each index can be used to develop a model for the Sun's total irradiance as seen at the Earth. Three solar indices allow the irradiance to be modeled back to the mid-1700s. The indices are (1) the length of the solar cycle, (2) the normalized decay rate of the solar cycle, and (3) the mean level of solar activity. All the indices are well correlated, and one possible explanation for their nearly simultaneous variations is changes in the Sun's convective energy transport. Although changes in the Sun's convective energy transport are outside the realm of normal stellar structure theory (e.g., mixing length theory), one can imagine variations arising from even the simplest view of sunspots as vertical tubes of magnetic flux, which would serve as rigid pillas affecting the energy flow patterns by ensuring larger-scale eddies. A composite solar irradiance model, based upon these proxies, is compared to the northern hemisphere temperature depatures for 1700-1992. Approximately 71% of the decadal variance in the last century can be modeled with these solar indices, although this analysis does not include anthropogenic or other variations which would affect the results. Over the entire three centuries, approx. 50% of the variance is modeled. Both this analysis and previous similar analyses have correlations of model solar irradiances and measured Earth surface temperatures that are significant at better than the 95% confidence level. To understand our present climate variations, we must place the anthropogenic variations in the context of natural variability from solar, volcanic, oceanic, and other sources.

Hoyt, Douglas V.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Cosmic-ray picture of the heliosphere

The existing data base on the characteristics of the heliosphere is discussed. It is known that solar gravity is less than necessary to hold all the solar material, and therefore a supersonic solar wind exists. Skylab soft X-ray photographs revealed the existence of coronal holes, which evolve in an 11 yr cycle. It has been proposed that all but the highest energy cosmic rays detected on earth can be attributed to solar and heliospheric origins, a controversial view which requires further empirical and theoretical work on particle acceleration processes and regions of interaction of the solar wind with interplanetary plasma. It is possible that a warped solar current sheet stretches to interplanetary space and organizes the solar magnetic field and thereby guides cosmic rays. An inverse correlation has been identified between the sunspot cycle and cosmic ray intensity. The features and effects of solar flares, subsequent shock waves and high speed particle streams are also discussed.

Venkatesan, D.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Galactic cosmic rays in three dimensions

A general conclusion is that the cosmic rays increase with increasing distance from the Sun at approximately 2 percent a.u. There is a strong correlation of the cosmic ray intensity with distance with the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet. Moreover, researchers find that the variation of the cosmic rays with time changes in alternate sun spot cycles. Finally, it seems that during alternate sun spot minima (1965 and 1985) the cosmic rays access to the inner solar system was along the equatorial current sheet, wheras in 1975 the cosmic rays came in over the poles. The recently discovered anomalous component of cosmic rays is very much related to this whole problem, and probably corresponds to particles being accelerated at the termination of the solar wind at some 50 to 100 astonomical units from the sun. In summary, many predictions of the models remain controversial in detail. Nonetheless, it appears now that we can expect more cosmic rays over the poles in the next sunspot cycle, and the intensity will continue to increase with heliocentric radius out to the interstellar medium.

Jokipii, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Solar Activity and the Sea-surface Temperature Record-evidence of a Long-period Variation in Solar Total Irradiance

There have been many suggestions over the years of a connection between solar activity and the Earth's climate on time scales long compared to the 11-year sunspot cycle. They have remained little more than suggestions largely because of the major uncertainties in the climate record itself, and the difficulty in trying to compile a global average from an assembly of measurements that are uneven in both quality and distribution. Different climate time response to solar activity, some suggesting a positive correlation, some a negative correlation, and some no correlation at all. The only excuse for making yet another such suggestion is that much effort has been devoted in recent years to compiling climate records for the past century or more that are internally consistent and believable, and that a decadal-scale record of solar total irradiance is emerging from spacecraft measurements, and can be used to set limits on the variation that is likely to have occurred on these time scales. The work described here was originally inspired by the observation that the time series of globally averaged sea-surface temperatures over the past 120 years or so, as compiled by the British Meteorological Office group (Folland and Kates, 1984), bore a resonable similarity to the long-term average sunspot number, which is an indicator of the secular variability of solar activity. The two time series are shown where the sunspot number is shown as the 135-month running mean, and the SST variation is shown as the departure from an arbitrary average value. The simplest explanation of the similarity, if one accepts it as other than coincidental, is that the sun's luminosity may have been varying more or less in step with the level of solar activity, or in other words that there is a close coupling between the sun's magnetic condition and its radiative output on time scales longer than the 11-year cycle. Such an idea is not new, and in fact the time series shown can be regarded as a modern extension of the proposal put forward by Eddy (1977) to explain the covariance between various global climate indicators and solar activity as revealed by the C-14 record over the past millenium.

Reid, George C.↗