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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Nondestructive Evaluation of Concrete: Elastic Property Imaging Through Full-Waveform Inversion

Concrete is a vital material in construction—especially in the nuclear industry, where it is used in critical structures such as containment vessels. Over time, concrete can degrade due to harsh operational and environmental conditions, necessitating that its elastic properties be accurately evaluated to ensure structural integrity and safety. Traditional nondestructive evaluation methods such as ultrasound-based techniques often rely on simplifying assumptions that may not hold true for concrete. This paper presents an advanced ultrasound-based method that uses elastic full-waveform inversion (EFWI) to create detailed images of concrete’s mechanical properties. By accurately modeling wave behaviors such as scattering and reflection, we aim to overcome the limitations of conventional ultrasonic-based methods. In this work, the imaging problem involved reconstructing the various elastic properties of a heterogenous concrete block with three steel rebars embedded in it. The ultrasonic measurements were synthetically generated from multiple sources and receivers, and the reconstruction process was performed using a gradient-based optimization algorithm. Our approach leveraged EFWI to reconstruct high-resolution images of the pressure wave speed, shear wave speed, and density. Multiple misfit functions—including L2-norm, cross-correlation (CC), and L1-norm—combined with total variation (TV) regularization and parameter constraints using a Sigmoid function—were explored for the reconstruction. The results demonstrated that using the L1-norm misfit function in conjunction with TV regularization and Sigmoid constraints significantly improved the reconstruction quality in comparison to traditional methods. This approach provided clearer images with fewer artifacts and better captured background heterogeneity. Our findings highlight that, when properly designed, EFWI carries great potential for providing comprehensive, more accurate, and more reliable assessments of concrete conditions, as is crucial for the maintenance and safety of nuclear power plant structures.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

White Paper: Research & Development for the Time at Temperature Approach

Recent advancements in nuclear power research are greatly improving reactor safety and performance through the development of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) and Low-Enriched Uranium Plus (LEU+). These innovations can address Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB) margins, which are vital for reactor safety. DNB happens when the coolant switches to film boiling, significantly decreasing heat transfer and posing a risk of fuel cladding failure. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) employs conservative DNB criteria, which can potentially restrict the operational flexibility and efficiency of reactors. The Time at Temperature (TaT) approach could provide a more detailed and adaptable operational guideline by establishing acceptable time-temperature limits, accounting for the duration a material can withstand elevated temperatures without losing its integrity. This method allows reactors to operate more efficiently and safely, offering additional operational margins, faster power adjustments, and improved fuel cycle economics. TaT criteria allow for higher power levels and more flexible responses to operational transients, particularly applicable for anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs) that result in short durations of post-DNB conditions. It enhances plant operational flexibility, allows faster startup times, and enables quicker power level adjustments, optimizing fuel loading patterns and improving fuel cycle economics. Implementing TaT limits reduces core design constraints, lowers fuel usage, and reduces costs, essential for the long-term sustainability of Light Water Reactors (LWRs). TaT maximizes the use of advanced fuel technologies like ATF and LEU+, further enhancing their economic and environmental benefits. To apply the TaT approach in existing LWRs, collaborative research activities among various DOE-sponsored programs are essential. These efforts should incorporate fuel experiments, physics-based high-fidelity modeling, ML-based surrogate modeling, and optimization techniques. This whitepaper proposes four research and development areas: 1) Investigation of the feasibility of new operations of LWR with updated safety limits; 2) Assessment of reactor operation limits through uncertainty reduction; 3) Evaluation of power uprate in virtual environment; and 4) Lattice and reactor core design for power uprate. Each area includes why this research is in need and a suggested scope of work. These comprehensive research areas ensure practical and beneficial advancements for existing reactors, translating innovations in nuclear fuel and cladding technology into improved reactor performance and safety.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Framework for a Digital Documented Safety Analysis

This framework is developed to progress the digital implementation of digital tools applied to the DOE authorization process, with future applications to NRC SAR development/review, to accelerate the design and review processes of advanced nuclear reactors. The engineering design and licensing process for nuclear reactors is currently burdened by a document-based approach that leads to duplications and errors due to a lack of traceability among numerous static documents. Changes to design information require labor-intensive manual tracing through these documents, creating a high potential for human error. The adoption of a digital ecosystem, utilizing a digital thread to link various aspects of project design and analysis, promises dynamic documentation generation, automatic updates, and error reduction. Model Based Definition (MBD) and Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) tools are central to this digital transformation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Postulated Accident Scenarios for the Transformational Challenge Reactor

The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) is a helium-cooled, yttrium-hydride-moderated reactor that was designed for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy. A key objective of the TCR was to employ advanced manufacturing techniques in a nuclear system and demonstrate their potential for revolutionizing the nuclear reactor design process. One purpose of the present work is to demonstrate the safety of the TCR under postulated accidents. Based on RELAP5-3D and COMSOL analyses, the TCR remained below all current safety limits and far below the expected failure limits for the core materials. Another purpose of this work is to provide useful insights and recommendations regarding the application of RELAP5-3D to gas-cooled or other advanced reactors. A novel approach was implemented for simultaneously modeling conduction and radiation in RELAP5-3D, which was found to provide reasonable predictions of radial core, vessel, and ex-vessel heat transfer during postulated events. A multicode approach was also applied, in which high-fidelity COMSOL calculations were used to tune the radial heat transfer parameters in RELAP5-3D. The tuned RELAP5-3D model demonstrated comparable peak temperature predictions as COMSOL, despite a coarse treatment of the core in RELAP5-3D consisting of only two lumped heat structures. This high-fidelity tuning approach enabled enhanced accuracy as well as minimal complexity within the RELAP5-3D model, even for complex fuel geometric designs as in the TCR. Finally, investigations were made into the potential for flow reversal during a pressurized loss-of-forced-flow event in the TCR. The TCR is designed with downward helium flow through the core during normal operation. The RELAP5-3D model predicted that this downward flow would persist, without flow reversal, up to several days after the circulator trip. This was attributed to natural circulation hysteresis effects as have been noted in similar thermofluidic systems. Although flow stagnation and eventual reversal did not lead to unsafe TCR conditions, interesting spatial effects were observed which may have safety relevance for other reactor system designs and coolant types that are designed for downward core flow during normal operation, warranting closer investigation of the flow reversal phenomenon.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Loss of Flow Conditions in a Modern Pool-type SFR and In-Pile Experiment Design

The metallic fuel safety performance under unprotected design-basis transients is a key consideration for the deployment of advanced sodium fast reactors (SFRs). Reliable data are needed to validate advanced safety codes, reduce uncertainty in cladding failure thresholds, and strengthen confidence in licensing approaches. To address this need, this report develops blueprints for a conceptual sodium loss-of-flow (LOF) experiment in the Mk-IIIR loop at the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT), providing the technical foundation for future integral testing.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the Language of Reliability: A System Engineer Perspective

In its classical definition, risk is defined by three elements: what can go wrong, what are its consequences, and how likely is it to occur? While this definition makes sense in a regulatory-based framework where for the current fleet of operating light water reactors (LWRs), the risks associated with nuclear power plants typically are characterized in terms of core damage and large early release frequency (LERF), this approach does not provide a useful snapshot of the health of the plant from a broader perspective. This is due to the very narrow context in which the term “risk” typically is defined as nuclear safety aspects that have the potential to impact public health. In this paper, we take the viewpoint of nuclear safety that is reflective of the current fleet of operating LWRs for which core damage frequency and LERF are appropriate metrics. For other advanced reactor designs, other more applicable technology neutral metrics of reactor safety metrics would be specified. A possible alternate path would start by redefining the word risk with a broader meaning that better reflects the needs of a system health and asset management decision-making process. Rather than asking how likely an event could occur (in probabilistic terms), we can ask how far this event is from occurring. Our approach starts by defining and quantifying component and system health in terms of a “distance” between its actual and limiting conditions, i.e., determination of the margin that exists between the current state/condition and the state where the component/system is no longer capable of achieving its intended function. A margin is a measure that is more reflective of the current state or performance of a component, and therefore more closely tied to decisions that are made on an ongoing basis. Further, we will show how, given the data available from plant equipment reliability and monitoring (e.g., pump vibration data) and prognostic (e.g., component remaining useful life estimation) data, a margin can be described and determined for all types of maintenance approaches (e.g., corrective or predictive maintenance). We show how classical reliability models (e.g., fault trees) can be used to quantify the system margin provided component margin values. In the approach described in this paper, the propagation of margin values through classical reliability models are not performed using classical probabilistic calculations applied to sets (as performed in a typical plant probabilistic risk assessment). Instead, we show how it is possible to propagate margin values through Boolean logic gates (i.e., AND and OR operators) through distance-based operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

High Fidelity CFD Simulations Supporting the KP-FHR

Kairos Power, LLC, is developing its version of the Fluoride-cooled High-temperature Reactor, the KP-FHR. The design uses a pebble bed core with fluoride salt as a coolant. The pebbles used in the KP-FHR have a diameter of 4 cm, with a shell fuel region where TRISO particles are embedded. A Pebble bed core design is adopted by several Gen IV reactors, They boast many benefits, such as fuel integrity, highly efficient heat transfer, and passive safety. However, it is challenging to accurately predict temperature and flow inside a pebble bed. Traditional approaches use the porous media model, which regards the pebble bed as a continuous medium, but with different temperature fields representing different levels, such as the fluid temperature, pebble surface temperature, and pebble center temperature. Empirical heat transfer correlations are adopted to calculate the heat transfer coefficient between different phases. However, empirical correlations are usually validated with experimental data, which usually lacks detail inside the pebble bed. The available experimental data is also generally at a high Reynolds number, which falls outside of the conditions of KP-FHR. Explicit computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of randomly packed pebble beds have only become feasible recently. This is thanks to the rapid development of computational power and scalable algorithms. In this work, we used the Spectral Element Method (SEM) CFD code NekRS to simulate the randomly packed pebble bed in a cylindrical container. NekRS, which is the GPU variant of Nek5000, but refactored to utilize the computational power of GPUs using the OCCA library to run on hybrid architecture high performance computing systems. It was initially developed with the libParamunal library, but truncated and tuned for large-scale turbulence simulation. As a result, the SEM reaches higher precision with the same degrees of freedom by using a high-order Lagrange polynomial basis distributed on Gauss-Lobatto-Legendre quadrature inside each element, compared to lower-order methods, such the Finite Volume Method and Finite Element Method. The report is divided into five parts. We start with a general discussion of the pebble bed reactor, along with a specific investigation into the KP-FHR. The second part presents the numerical methodology. In the third part, we study a modular pebble bed with 1741 pebbles in a container of 7 pebble-diameter radius. Beyond LES simulations done by NekRS, we also leveraged the thermal radiation model in OpenFOAM to study heat transfer under no-forced-flow scenarios. Then, in the fourth part we simulated a pebble bed similar to the size of the Hermes Test Reactor. The total number of pebbles is in these simulations is 34,374. The container radius is 14 pebble-diameters. Finally, the report concludes in part five, with a discussion of future work.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Regulatory Approach to Accelerated Deployment for New Material or Applications in Advanced Reactors

New advanced reactor developers may embark on deploying materials in novel and unique environments where a material’s long-term performance may be in question or unknown. In many cases, sufficient test data may not exist for the material in the desired application, or that no prescript or applicable regulatory testing requirements are available to demonstrate the safety of the application explicitly. This study endeavors to develop the framework for a regulatory and technical approach for safe and predictable accelerated materials use in advanced reactors guided by 10 CFR Part 50.43(e)(1), Advanced Reactor Design Criteria contained in Regulatory Guide 1.232, and Reliability Integrity Management Program (RIM) principles.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards Provable Security in Industrial Control Systems Via Dynamic Protocol Attestation

Industrial control systems (ICSs) increasingly rely on digital technologies vulnerable to cyber attacks. Cyber attackers can infiltrate ICSs and execute malicious actions. Individually, each action seems innocuous. But taken together, they cause the system to enter an unsafe state. These attacks have resulted in dramatic consequences such as physical damage, economic loss, and environmental catastrophes. This paper introduces a methodology that restricts actions using protocols. These protocols only allow safe actions to execute. Protocols are written in a domain specific language we have embedded in an interactive theorem prover (ITP). The ITP enables formal, machine-checked proofs to ensure protocols maintain safety properties. We use dynamic attestation to ensure ICSs conform to their protocol even if an adversary compromises a component. Since protocol conformance prevents unsafe actions, the previously mentioned cyber attacks become impossible. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methodology using an example from the Fischertechnik Industry 4.0 platform. We measure dynamic attestation's impact on latency and throughput. Our approach is a starting point for studying how to combine formal methods and protocol design to thwart attacks intended to cripple ICSs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum Communication Networks for Energy Applications: Review and Perspective

Abstract The energy sector is expected to undergo significant changes in the coming decades with the advent of new technologies, including smart grid development, microgrid expansion, increasing electric vehicle and renewable energy usage, and enhanced measures to minimize greenhouse gas emission, among others. In tandem, these changes are expected to create new opportunities for the deployment of quantum technologies within the energy sector. Building on the authors' previous reviews on the current state of and future opportunities for quantum sensing, quantum computing and quantum simulations for energy sector applications, this work provides an overview of recent progress in quantum networking and communications for the energy industry, with a focus on platforms, devices, and protocols, including quantum teleportation and quantum key distribution. Specific areas of relevance to the energy sector are then analyzed, including the role of quantum networks for greenhouse gas monitoring, secure data collection and transmission in smart grids, nuclear power plants’ safety, facilitating oil and gas exploration, and other energy‐relevant applications. This review concludes with a brief overview of areas for future innovation, including the need for platforms for simulating quantum networks, quantum material and platform design, and computational approaches to accelerate quantum protocol discovery and development.

Paudel, Hari P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing Information Automation Using a New Method Based on System-Theoretic Process Analysis: Tool Development and Method Evaluation

This report is an update to a prior report that describes progress and findings for a program of research supporting the design and optimization of information automation systems for nuclear power plants. Much of the domestic nuclear fleet is currently focused on modernizing technologies and processes, including transitioning toward digitalization in the control room and throughout the plant, along with a greater interest in the use of automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and other emerging technologies. While there are significant opportunities to apply these technologies toward greater plant safety, efficiency, and overall cost-effectiveness, optimizing their design and avoiding potential safety and performance risks depends on ensuring that human performance-related organizational and technical design issues are identified and addressed early in the design process. This report describes modeling tools and techniques, based on sociotechnical systems theory, to support these design goals and their application in the current research effort. The report is primarily intended for senior nuclear energy stakeholders, including regulators, corporate management, and senior plant management. We have developed and employed a method to design an optimized information automation ecosystem (IAE) based on the systems-theoretic constructs underlying sociotechnical systems theory in general and the Systems-Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes (STAMP) approach in particular. We argue that an IAE can be modeled as an interactive information control system whose behavior can be understood in terms of dynamic control, feedback, and communication relationships amongst the system’s technical and organizational components. We have employed two STAMP-based tools in this effort. The first is Causal Analysis based on STAMP (CAST), an accident and incident analysis technique that was used to examine a performance- and safety-related incident at an industry partner’s plant involving the unintentional activation of an emergency diesel generator. This analysis provided insight into the behavior of the plant’s current information control structure within the context of a specific, significant event. The second tool is Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) which is a proactive risk analysis tool used to examine existing and potential, planned sociotechnical systems. STPA was used to identify risk factors in the current design of a generic nuclear power plant (NPP) preventive maintenance system. Our analyses focused on identifying near-term system improvements and longer-term design requirements for an optimized IAE system. CAST analysis findings indicate an important underlying contributor to the incident under investigation, and a significant risk to information automation system performance, was perceived time and schedule pressure, which exposed weaknesses in interdepartmental coordination between and within responsible plant organizations and challenged the resilience of established plant processes, until a human caused the eventual event. These findings are discussed in terms of their risk to overall system performance and their implications for information automation system resilience and brittleness. STPA findings exposed several areas of concern in the design of current preventive maintenance systems. We also present two preliminary information automation models. The proactive issue resolution (PIR) model is a test case of an information automation concept with significant near-term potential for application and subsequent reduction in significant plant events. The IAE model is a more general representation of a broader, plantwide information automation system and represents an end-state vision for our work. From our results, we have generated an initial set of preliminary system-level requirements and safety constraints for these models. We have also focused on early development of easy to learn, easy to use “transportable” tools for sociotechnical systems analysis. We intend these to be used by NPP personnel as a means of gaining reliable and relatively quick insight into (1) sociotechnical systems factors impacting incidents and accidents, (2) potential sociotechnical risk factors in existing or planned system designs, and (3) potential weaknesses in a system’s safety and/or information control structure. We conclude the report with a set of summary recommendations, a discussion of planned and potential follow-on research and development, and a draft list of system-level requirements and safety constraints for optimized information automation systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding and Modeling Pooled Rideshare Acceptance: Influential Factors, Preferred User Experiences, and Implications

Ridesharing allows people to share a vehicle with others traveling in the same direction, which can reduce costs and traffic congestion. Pooled rideshare (PR) services, such as UberX Share and Lyft Shared, offer an economical and environmentally friendly alternative by matching passengers traveling similar routes. However, despite these benefits, PR adoption remains low due to concerns about safety, privacy, and convenience. This research explores the factors influencing PR adoption and provides recommendations to improve user acceptance. A nationwide survey of 5,385 participants across the U.S. was conducted to understand why people choose or avoid PR. The study identified five key factors influencing PR consideration: safety, service experience, privacy, traffic/environment, and time/cost. Additional research examined ways to optimize PR experiences by identifying four critical factors: comfort/ease of use, convenience, vehicle technology/accessibility, and passenger safety. To measure the impact of these factors, a statistical model called the Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model (PRAM) was developed, providing insights into how each element influences PR adoption. Further analysis using the Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model Multigroup Analyses (PRAMMA) revealed how demographic characteristics such as age, gender, income, and past rideshare experience shape PR perceptions. Some key findings from the multigroup analyses showed that younger users valued technological features and environmental benefits, while older users prioritized reliability and service transparency. Additionally, privacy concerns were more significant for female users, while convenience was critical for higher-income groups. These results emphasize that a 'onesize-fits-all' approach to PR service design is not effective, highlighting the need for tailored strategies to address different user segments. Further, workshops were conducted with researchers and students to translate the findings into real-world solutions. These workshops and 3 all the statistical analyses led to the development of 95 actionable recommendations. The recommendations focus on key areas such as safety, service reliability, user education, and accessibility, offering tangible improvements to PR services. The insights from this study provide valuable guidance for policymakers, transportation network companies (TNCs), and researchers aiming to make PR services safer, more accessible, and widely accepted. By addressing user concerns, PR can become a more viable transportation option, supporting sustainable urban mobility and reducing reliance on private vehicles. Additionally, these findings emphasize the importance of user-centric service design in encouraging broader PR adoption. Future research should explore evolving trends in PR preferences, technological advancements, and policy changes to ensure continued improvements. By implementing these recommendations, PR services can better align with user expectations, enhance trust in shared mobility, and contribute to a more efficient transportation ecosystem.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing pressurized-water reactor equilibrium cycle using a novel loading pattern encoding and rule-based genetic crossover operators

This work presents an extended multi-batch approach applied in shuffling scheme optimization for equilibrium cycle for pressurized water reactors using Genetic Algorithms (GAs). A new ruled based GA crossover operator called Inherited Location and Batch (ILB) was introduced to enhance offsprings reproduction efficiency specialized for equilibrium cycle optimization problem. This approach was implemented within the Plant ReLoad Optimization (PRLO) framework and validated using a generic reactor model based on the AP1000 design, with core parameters calculated via the CASMO/SIMULATE software package. The ILB approach is then applied for both single and multi-objective problems in maximizing cycle length and core average exposure while minimizing the average enrichment of the 57 fresh fuel assemblies (FAs) per cycle. The optimal solutions are selected based on their dominance to the objectives from all feasible solutions. This research identified three optimal solutions satisfied safety constraints: The first solution minimizes feed enrichment costs with a cycle length of 338.8 days and core exposure of 25.39 MWd/MT; the second solution extends cycle length to 361.2 days, with the highest core exposure of 26.84 MWd/MT, using 3.75 wt% average fuel enrichment; the third solution balances both objectives with a cycle length of 349.6 days, core exposure of 25.82 MWd/MT with a slight enrichment increase compared to the first solution. Collectively, these findings underscore the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed approach in achieving practical multi-objective optimal equilibrium cycle designs using GAs optimizer.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Facilitating Data Collection of Maintenance Events to Populate the Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD)

The Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD) is a collaborative project between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the University of Maryland, and hydrogen stakeholders to improve safety and reliability for hydrogen facilities by implementing component reliability data taxonomies that support hydrogen infrastructure failure rate analysis. The project aims to quantify failure rates of hydrogen components through high-quality data collection and analysis on root causes and maintenance needed. HyCReD provides a common database for cataloging hydrogen component failures which exists for reliability research in many other mature industries [2]. The database fills a gap for the hydrogen community by providing a scientifically rigorous approach to quantitative risk assessment (QRA), prognostic health management (PHM), and reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) analysis. High level results will be aggregated and anonymized to protect company sensitive information; detailed results will be used to help address issues of hydrogen components. These advanced analytics will support accelerated deployment of hydrogen infrastructure by enabling better: design and safety of projects (safety codes and standards development), infrastructure reliability and cost (component failure rates, maintenance protocols), and component R&D needs (robust supply chain). A key to a successful HyCReD implementation is facilitating the ease of reporting and data quality in the database that can be used for analysis. Maintenance data was a previously identified gap in initial efforts to populate and validate the database taxonomies [3]. Collection of maintenance data will be instrumental in identifying failure modes and rates, identifying incipient component failures or reduced performance, cataloging best practices for maintenance routines and methods for prognostic health management, and quantifying the risk and effect of different failure modes. Several key priorities are identified for streamlined data collection to achieve quality and detailed failure data: Applicability, Ease of Use, Accessibility, and Information Security. The HyCReD team has now begun deployment of the database to several companies and groups that have signed non-disclosure agreements to facilitate the data collection of failures in industry hydrogen refueling station infrastructure. This paper will provide an update into the process of HyCReD deployment including the development of a coding guide for facility personnel to reference and ensure data quality and consistency from one station to another as well as implementation of contextually dependent data fields of system taxonomy and formatted entries to provide ease of use. The goal is to communicate the lessons learned from the roll-out to technicians and engineers in the field, and the addition of need for high level of security to protect all stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Thermal-hydraulics and Selected Safety Analysis for Holos-Quad Reactor Design

This report presents thermal hydraulics and safety analyses of the 10 MWe Holos-Quad micro-reactor design developed by HolosGen LLC. These analyses were executed under steady-state and station black-out (SBO) transient conditions using the System Analysis Module (SAM), with a focus on ensuring peak fuel temperatures do not exceed the safety thresholds of 1,250°C for steady state normal operating conditions and 1,600°C for transient conditions. For steady-state temperature predictions, a coupled 1D fluid-to-3D solid heat conduction methodology was used. The steady-state simulations included a model of the central core region where power peaking occurs to predict the maximum steady-state fuel temperature, and a coarse-mesh full-core model to provide the initial condition for the consequent transient SBO decay heat removal simulation. The maximum fuel temperature predicted from the central core region simulations under the normal operating condition was 1,222°C, which is below the design limit 1,250°C. To simulate a SBO transient, a full core model was necessary because of the non-axial symmetric core design and heat loss from the outer core structures to the environment. To reduce the required computational costs, a novel scaled subassembly approach was used to model the full core domain. With the full core steady-state temperature distribution provided as the initial condition, the passive decay heat removal of the core was simulated with the scaled subassembly full core model under SBO transient conditions. This analysis showed that the peak fuel temperatures of the Holos-Quad core remained below their steady-state values during the transient, therefore much lower than the safety limit 1,600°C. This is mainly due to the large thermal inertia of the graphite matrix, relatively low power density, and the large surface-to-volume-ratio of the core. The preliminary analyses presented in this report confirm the inherent safety of the Holos-Quad micro-reactor thermal-hydraulics design, as the peak fuel temperatures under both normal and off-normal operational conditions remain within design and safety limits.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗
DOE OSTI2023

Oxadiazole-based Heterocycles as Building Block for Material Property Control: Design, Synthesis, and Characterization of 3,4-Bis(3-(4-nitro-1,2,5-oxadiazol-3-yl)- 1,2,4-oxadiazol-5-yl)-1,2,5-oxadiazole (LLM-210)

This paper presents an approach to novel oxadiazole-based melt-castable energetic material, LLM-210. Used in pour-in process and 3D printing, melt-castable energetic materials (MCEM) must possess required physical and safety properties of industry-standard energetic materials, also a narrow range of melting point between 80-100 °C. Melting point is difficult to accurately predict, therefore, searching for MCEM is challenging. 3,4-Bis(5-(4-nitro-1,2,5-oxadiazol-3-yl)-1,2,4-oxadiazol3-yl)-1,2,5-oxadiazole (LLM-205), composed of five-oxadiazole rings allied via carbon-carbon bonds, was selected as new MCEM candidate. The target molecule was synthesized and characterized, showing a density of 1.807g/cm3 ; thermal decomposing temperature at 299 °C; and insensitive to external stimuli, but the melting point of 104 °C was out of the rang. Based on the molecular properties and ab initio calculations, 3,4-bis(3-(4-nitro-1,2,5-oxadiazol-3-yl)-1,2,4-oxadiazol-5-yl)- 1,2,5-oxadiazole (LLM-210), an isomer of LLM-205, was designed and synthesized from a different way. LLM-210 was characterized as MCEM, possessing melting point of 87 °C; density of 1.812 g/cm3 ; and exothermally decomposing temperature at 314 °C; being insensitive to external stimuli. In this study, the relationship of molecular structure to properties of LLM-205 and LLM-210 based on the results of Density Functional Theory (DFT) and X-ray crystallographic analysis is also briefly discussed.

Chemistry - Chemical explosives↗