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Studies of statistical methods for predicting future solar activity described in report containing extensive graphical and tabular presentations of analyses. Lagrangian-least-squares method, which gives best predictions presented in detail. FORTRAN source code for method given.
A complex solar active region at 6 cm has been observed with the VLA. Radio images of the region have been constructed and compared with simultaneous optical data from the region. It is found that all radio sources are associated with either sunspots or regions of the corona where strong transverse magnetic fields are likely, that the transverse field sources are brighter than the sunspot sources, and that some of the sunspot sources have a polarized ring structure. The observations are interpreted in terms of thermal gyroresonance emission, with the radiation from the transverse field sources being at the third harmonic of the gyrofrequency and predominantly at the second harmonic from the sunspot sources.
The relation of cosmic ray intensity to solar wind velocity is investigated, using neutron monitor data from Kiel and Deep River. The analysis shows that the regression coefficient of the average intensity for a time interval to the corresponding average velocity is negative and that the absolute effect increases monotonously with the interval of averaging, tau, that is, from -0.5% per 100km/s for tau = 1 day to -1.1% per 100km/s for tau = 27 days. For tau 27 days the coefficient becomes almost constant independently of the value of tau. The analysis also shows that this tau-dependence of the regression coefficiently is varying with the solar activity.
The Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) solar telescope network has begun regular operations, and will provide continuous Doppler images of large-scale nearly-steady motions at the solar surface, primarily those due to supergranulation. Not only the Sun's well-known magnetic network, but also flux diffusion, dispersal, and concentration at the surface appear to be controlled by supergranulation. Through such magnetoconvective interactions, magnetic stresses develop, leading to solar activity. We show a Doppler movie made from a 45.5 hr time series obtained 1995 May 9-10 using data from three of the six GONG sites (Learmonth, Tenerife, Tucson), to demonstrate the capability of this system.
We report on observations of a solar active region in May 1992 by the Solar Plasma Diagnostic Experiment (SPDE) in coordination with the Yohkoh satellite (producing soft X-ray images) and ground-based observatories (producing photospheric magnetograms and various filtergrams including those at the CN 3883 A line). The main focus is a study of the physical conditions of hot (T is approximately greater than 3 MK) coronal loops at their foot-points. The coronal part of the loops is fuzzy but what appear to be their footpoints in the transition region down to the photosphere are compact. Despite the morphological similarities, the footpoint emission at 10(exp 5) K is not quantitatively correlated with that at approximately 300 km above the tau (sub 5000) = 1 level, suggesting that the heat transport and therefore magnetic field topology in the intermediate layer is complicated. High resolution imaging observations with continuous temperature coverage are crucially needed.
A new source of data on the solar output, namely limb flux from the one- and two-million degree corona is presented. This parameter is derived from data obtained at the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak with the 40 cm coronagraph of the John W. Evans Solar Facility and the Emission Line Coronal Photometer. The limb flux is defined to be the latitude-averaged intensity in millionths of the brightness of disk center from an annulus of width 1.1 minutes centered at a height of 0.15 solar constant above the limb of emission from lines at 6374A (Fe X) or 5303A (Fe XIV). Fe XIV data have been obtained since 1973 and Fe X since 1984. Examination of the Fe XIV data shows that there is ambiguity in the definition of the last two solar activity minima, which can affect the determination of cycle rise times and lengths. There is an indication that a constant minimum or basal corona may exist at solar minimum. Cycle 22 has had a much faster onset than Cycle 21 and has now overtaken Cycle 21. The rise characteristics of the two cycles were very similar up until Jul. to Aug. 1989, at which time a long-term maximum occurred in Fe X and Fe XIV, which could possibly be the solar maximum. Another maximum is developing at the current time. Cycle 21 was characterized in Fe XIV by at least 4 major thrusts or bursts of activity, each lasting on the order of a year and all having similar maximum limb fluxes which indicates that coronal energy output is sustained over periods in which the sunspot number declines significantly. Dramatic increases in the limb fluxes occur from minimum to maximum, ranging from factors of 14 to 21 in the two lines. Two different techniques to predict the epoch of solar maximum have been applied to the Fe XIV data, resulting in estimates of April 1989 (plus or minus 1 mo) and May 1990 (plus or minus 2 mos).
Lower E-region positive ion concentrations measured at time of declining solar activity by rocket installed mass spectrometer
Mean atmospheric densities during minimum solar activity derived from energy changes of Explorer XIX Satellite
During periods of high solar activity fibrinolysis and fibrinogenolysis are increased. A direct correlative relationship is established between the indices of fibrinolysis, fibrinogenolysis and solar flares which were recorded two days before the blood was collected for analysis.
Skylab observations have shown that activations and disruptions of dark H-alpha filaments are one of the basic and most important mechanisms of solar activity. The Kopp-Pneuman theory of post-flare loops shows that the process which disrupts a filament opens the magnetic field and causes a greatly enhanced mass flow along the field lines. The open field lines subsequently reconnect, starting from the bottom of the corona and proceeding upwards. This process can last for many hours. Hot loops are first seen in X-rays, then in extreme UV lines, and, after an appropriate cooling time, in H-alpha as the loop prominence systems.
Aims. We perform a statistical study of the relations between the properties of solar energetic electron (SEE) events measured by the MESSENGER mission from 2010 to 2015 and the parameters of the respective parent solar activity phenomena in order to identify the potential correlations between them. During the time of analysis, the MESSENGER heliocentric distance varied between 0.31 and 0.47 au. Methods. We used a published list of 61 SEE events measured by MESSENGER, which includes information on the near-relativistic electron peak intensities, the peak-intensity energy spectral indices, and the measured X-ray peak intensity of the flares related to the SEE events. Taking advantage of multi-viewpoint remote-sensing observations, we reconstructed, whenever possible, the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and shock waves; and we determined the three-dimensional (3D) properties (location, speed, and width) of the CMEs and the maximum speed of the 3D CME-driven shocks in the corona. We used different methods (Spearman, Pearson, and a Bayesian approach, namely the Kelly method to linear regression) to estimate the correlation coefficients between the flare intensity, maximum speed at the apex of the CME-driven shock, CME speed at the apex, and CME width with the electron peak intensities and with the energy spectral indices. In this statistical study, we considered and addressed the limitations of the particle instrument on board MESSENGER (elevated background intensity level, anti-Sun pointing). Results. There is an asymmetry to the east in the range of connection angles (CAs) for which the SEE events present the highest peak intensities, where the CA is the longitudinal separation between the footpoint of the magnetic field connecting to the spacecraft and the flare location. Based on this asymmetry, we define a subsample of well-connected events as when −65° ≤ CA ≤ +33°. For the well-connected sample, we find moderate to strong correlations between the near-relativistic electron peak intensity and the 3D CME-driven shock maximum speed at the apex (Spearman: cc = 0.53 ± 0.05; Pearson: cc = 0.65 ± 0.04; Kelly: cc = 0.87 ± 0.20), the flare peak intensity (Spearman: cc = 0.63 ± 0.03; Pearson: cc = 0.59 ± 0.03; Kelly: cc = 0.74 ± 0.30), and the 3D CME speed at the apex (Spearman: cc = 0.50 ± 0.04; Pearson: cc = 0.46 ± 0.03; Kelly: cc = 0.60 ± 0.39). When including poorly connected events (full sample), the relations between the peak intensities and the solar-activity phenomena are blurred, showing lower correlation coefficients. Conclusions. Based on the comparison of the correlation coefficients presented in this study using near 0.4 au data, (1) both flare and shock-related processes may contribute to the acceleration of near relativistic electrons in large SEE events, in agreement with previous studies based on near 1 au data; and (2) the maximum speed of the CME-driven shock is a better parameter to investigate particle-acceleration-related mechanisms than the average CME speed, as suggested by the stronger correlation with the SEE peak intensities.
Relation between solar activity and tree ring growth in western North America
We train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models that predict the formation of active regions (ARs), the main source of eruptive solar activity. Using the Doppler shift velocity, the continuum intensity and the magnetic field full-disk maps from SDO/HMI we have created time-series datasets of acoustic power and magnetic flux which are used to train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models on predicting decreases in continuum intensity 12 hours in advance. Testing of the models' performance was done on data from 5 ARs, unseen from the model during training. The model predicted the emergence of AR11726, AR13165 and AR13179, 10, 29 and 5 hours in advance, and variations of this model achieved average RMSE values of 0.11 for both active and quiet parts of the solar disc, showing the ability of the model to capture acoustic power anomalies and predict continuum intensity variations. This work sets the foundations for the very first ML-aided prediction of solar ARs.
Relationship between seismic phenomena and solar activity
Upper atmospheric density during minimum solar activity periods
Correlation between rotation period of artificial earth satellite and solar activity
Major air pressure and temperature anomalies in certain arctic regions were studied with a view toward predicting their occurrence. Correlations are sought between the frequency of arctic anomalies and solar activity, or specifically the Wolf number and the index of geomagnetic disturbance. Graphic techniques are used to show that solar activity has a definite influence on the frequency of occurrence of major anomalies of pressure and temperature in the Arctic.
The birth and early evolution of a solar active region has been investigated using X-ray observations from the mapping X-ray heliometer on board the OSO-8 spacecraft. X-ray emission is observed within three hours of the first detection of H-alpha plage. At that time, a plasma temperature of four million K in a region having a density on the order of 10 to the 10th power per cu cm is inferred. During the fifty hours following birth almost continuous flares or flare-like X-ray bursts are superimposed on a monotonically increasing base level of X-ray emission produced by the plasma. If the X-rays are assumed to result from heating due to dissipation of current systems or magnetic field reconnection, it may be concluded that flare-like X-ray emission soon after active region birth implies that the magnetic field probably emerges in a stressed or complex configuration.