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NASA NTRS2002

The Living With a Star CDAW on the Solar and Geospace Connections of Solar Energetic Particles

The Living With a Star Program is sponsoring its first CDAW (Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop) to be held July 23-26, 2002 at a conference support location near the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. This CDAW's topic is Solar Energetic Particle events. The topic was chosen due to the breadth of the impact of SEP's on the space environment and terrestrial climate. General goals of the LWS CDAW are a) Stimulate LWS Science on the near term, b) Facilitate cross-disciplinary interaction between the LWS scientific and space environment communities, c) Produce science products for all potential users, and d) Assist in the development of the LWS data system. The workshop will proceed similar to a previous CDAW held in 1999 on Interplanetary Type 11 Shocks. A list of target events has been compiled, which can be found at the workshop home page. The page lists all of the SEP events from 1996 January to 2001 December with energy > 10 MeV particle intensities exceeding 10 PFU. Preparation for the workshop consists of identifying relevant data from a wide variety of sources (solar, interplanetary, magnetospheric and climatary), accumulating the data (frequently this consists of both raw data, processed data and plots to ease perusal during the workshop) and gathering the software tools. Participants in the workshop are expected to complete their contributions of data or models prior to arriving at the workshop. Most of the CDAW consists of joint analysis of this data; only a few introductory talks are given at the beginning of the workshop, with the rest of the time being devoted to producing scientific results. Additional symposia may be scheduled at a later date, which will allow a venue for scientific talks on the CDAW results and associated science. The poster will list the scientific goals of the workshop, as well as a scientific discussion of the data which has been accumulated thus far.

Thompson, Barbara J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

HILT - A heavy ion large area proportional counter telescope for solar and anomalous cosmic rays

The HILT sensor has been designed to measure heavy ion elemental abundances, energy spectra, and direction of incidence in the mass range from He to Fe and in the energy range 4 to 250 MeV/nucleon. With its large geometric factor of 60 sq cm sr the sensor is optimized to provide compositional and spectral measurements for low intensity cosmic rays (i.e. for small solar energetic particle events and for the anomalous component of cosmic rays). The instrument combines a large area ion drift chamber-proportional counter system with two arrays of 16 Li-drift solid state detectors and 16 CsI crystals. The multi dE/dx-E technique provides a low background mass and energy determination. The sensor also measures particle direction. Combining these measurements with the information on the spacecraft position and attitude in the low-altitude polar orbit, it will be possible to infer the ionic charge of the ions from the local cutoff of the Earth's magnetic field. The ionic charge in this energy range is of particular interest because it provides unique clues to the origin of these particles and has not been investigated systematically so far. Together with the other instruments on board SAMPEX (LEICA, MAST, and PET), a comprehensive measurement of the entire solar and anomalous particle population will be achieved.

Klecker, Berndt↗

NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Falconer, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Rate of Dielectric Breakdown Weathering of Lunar Regolith in Permanently Shadowed Regions

Large solar energetic particle events may cause dielectric breakdown in the upper 1 mm of regolith in permanently shadowed regions (PSRs). We estimate how the resulting breakdown weathering compares to meteoroid impact weathering. Although the SEP event rates measured by the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) are too low for breakdown to have significantly affected the regolith over the duration of the LRO mission, regolith gardened by meteoroid impacts has been exposed to SEPs for approx.10(exp 6 yr. Therefore, we estimate that breakdown weathering's production rate of vapor and melt in the coldest PSRs is up to 1.8−3. 5 ×10(exp −7) kg/sq m/yr, which is comparable to that produced by meteoroid impacts. Thus, in PSRs, up to 10-25% of the regolith may have been melted or vaporized by dielectric breakdown. Breakdown weathering could also be consistent with observations of the increased porosity ("fairy castles") of PSR regolith. We also show that it is con- ceivable that breakdown-weathered material is present in Apollo soil samples. Consequently, breakdown weathering could be an important process within PSRs, and it warrants further investigation.

Meteoroid↗

NASA NTRS1985

Latitude dependence of co-rotating shock acceleration

Energetic particle observations in the outer heliosphere (approx 12 A. U.) by the LECP instruments on the Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 spacecraft are discussed that show a definite latitude dependence of the number and intensity of particle enhancements produced by corotating interplanetary regions during an interval when no solar energetic particle events were observed. The particle enhancements are fewer in number and less intense at higher (approx 20 deg.) heliolatitudes. However, the similar spectral shapes of the accelerated particles at the two spacecraft indicate that the acceleration process is the same at the two latitudes, but less intense at the higher latitude.

Gold, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

New description of charged particle propagation in random magnetic fields

When charged particles spiral along a large constant magnetic field, their trajectories are scattered by random components that are superposed on the guiding field. In the simplest analysis of this situation, scattering causes the particles to diffuse parallel to the guiding field. At the next level of approximation, moving pulses that correspond to a coherent mode of propagation are present, but they are represented by delta-functions whose infinitely narrow width makes no sense physically and is inconsistent with the finite duration of coherent pulses observed in solar energetic particle events. To derive a more realistic description, the transport problem is formulated in terms of 4 x 4 matrices, which derive from a representation of the particle distribution function in terms of eigenfunctions of the scattering operator, and which lead to useful approximations that give explicit predictions of the detailed evolution not only of the coherent pulses, but also of the diffusive wake. More specifically, the new description embodies a simple convolution of a narrow Gaussian with the solutions above that involve delta-functions, but with a slightly reduced coherent velocity. The validity of these approximations, which can easily be calculated on a desktop computer, has been exhaustively confirmed by comparison with results of Monte Carlo simulations which kept track of 50 million particles and which were carried out on the Maspar computer at Goddard Space Flight Center.

Earl, James A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Geomagnetic transmission of solar energetic protons during the geomagnetic disturbances of October 1989

Orbit-averaged geomagnetic transmission measurements during the large solar energetic particle events of October 1989 are presented using proton data from the NOAA-10 and GOES-7 satellies. The measurements are compared to geomagnetic transmission calculations determined by tracing particle trajectories through the combination of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model and the 1989 Tsyganenko magnetospheric magnetic field model. The effective 'ring current' parameter in the 1989 Tsyganenko model based on the Dst data. Results are compared to calculations employing only the IGRF and to a parameterization of geomagnetically quiet-time cutoff rigidities derived from Cosmos/intercosmos observations. The 3-hour orbit-averaged results have approximately 15% accuracy during the October 1989 events.

Boberg, P. R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Phenomena Associated with EIT Waves

We discuss phenomena associated with 'EIT Wave' transients. These phenomena include coronal mass ejections, flares, EUV/SXR dimmings, chromospheric waves, Moreton waves, solar energetic particle events, energetic electron events, and radio signatures. Although the occurrence of many phenomena correlate with the appearance of EIT waves, it is difficult to infer which associations are causal. The presentation will include a discussion of correlation surveys of these phenomena.

Thompson, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Phenomena Associated With EIT Waves

We discuss phenomena associated with "EIT Wave" transients. These phenomena include coronal mass ejections, flares, EUV/SXR dimmings, chromospheric waves, Moreton waves, solar energetic particle events, energetic electron events, and radio signatures. Although the occurrence of many phenomena correlate with the appearance of EIT waves, it is difficult to mfer which associations are causal. The presentation will include a discussion of correlation surveys of these phenomena.

Thompson, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

L2 Plasma Environments

The second LaGrange point, 1.5 million miles from the Earth in the anti-solar direction, is becoming an important destination for scientific spacecraft. The quasi-stable gravity field requires little energy resources for station keeping and astronomical missions-infrared and microwave in particular-find the minimal impact from Earth albedo radiation and limited restrictions on viewing directions a tremendous advantage in their mission design. Spacecraft design for L2 missions will have to consider the plasma environments of the ambient solar wind, magnetosheath, and magnetotail from energies of a few 10s of an eV through 10s of keV in addition to enhanced energetic particle populations from 10s to 1000 keV during solar energetic particle events. This presentation will provide a background on the appropriate L2 charged particle environments at L2 and describe modeling efforts at MSFC to develop environment specification tools for the L2 plasma environment.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

NASA NTRS2003

L2 Plasma Environments

The second LaGrange point, 1.5 million miles from the Earth in the anti-solar direction, is becoming an important destination for scientific spacecraft. The quasi-stable gravity field requires little energy resources for station keeping and astronomical missions-infrared and microwave in particular-find the minimal impact from Earth albedo radiation and limited restrictions on viewing directions a tremendous advantage in their mission design. Spacecraft design for L2 missions will have to consider the plasma environments of the ambient solar wind, magnetosheath, and magnetotail from energies of a few 10s of an eV through 10 s of keV in addition to enhanced energetic particle populations from 10s to l000 keV during solar energetic particle events. This presentation will provide a background on the appropriate L2 charged particle environments at L2 and describe modeling efforts at MSFC to develop environment specification tools for the L2 plasma environment.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Radiation exposure for human Mars exploration

One major obstacle to human space exploration is the possible limitations imposed by the adverse effects of long-term exposure to the space environment. Even before human space flight began, the potentially brief exposure of astronauts to the very intense random solar energetic particle events was of great concern. A new challenge appears in deep-space exploration from exposure to the low-intensity heavy-ion flux of the galactic cosmic rays since the missions are of long duration, and accumulated exposures can be high. Because cancer induction rates increase behind low to moderate thicknesses of aluminum shielding, according to available biological data on mammalian exposures to galactic cosmic ray-like ions, aluminum shield requirements for a Mars mission may be prohibitively expensive in terms of mission launch costs. Alternative materials for vehicle construction are under investigation to provide lightweight habitat structures with enhanced shielding properties. In the present paper, updated estimates for astronaut exposures on a Mars mission are presented and shielding properties of alternative materials are compared with aluminum.

NASA Center LaRC↗

NASA NTRS2005

MTRAP: The Magnetic Transition Region Probe

The Magnetic Transition Region Probe is a space telescope designed to measure the magnetic field at several heights and temperatures in the solar atmosphere, providing observations spanning the chromospheric region where the field is expected to become force free. The primary goal is to provide an early warning system (hours to days) for solar energetic particle events that pose a serious hazard to astronauts in deep space and to understand the source regions of these particles. The required magnetic field data consist of simultaneous circular and linear polarization measurements in several spectral lines over the wavelength range from 150 to 855 nm. Because the observations are photon limited an optical telescope with a large (>18sq m) collecting area is required. To keep the heat dissipation problem manageable we have chosen to implement MTRAP with six separate Gregorian telescopes, each with approx. 3 sq m collecting area, that are brought to a common focus. The large field of view (5 x 5 arcmin(sup 2)) and angular resolution (0.025 arcsec pixels) require large detector arrays and, because of the requirements on signal to noise (10(exp 3)), pixels with large full well depths to reduce the readout time and improve the temporal resolution. The optical and engineering considerations that have gone into the development of a concept that meets MTRAP's requirements are described.

Davis, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Proof-of-Concept Trajectory Designs for a Multi-Spacecraft, Low-Thrust Heliocentric Solar Weather Buoy Mission

A new solar weather mission has been proposed, involving a dozen or more small spacecraft spaced at regular, constant intervals in a mutual heliocentric circular orbit between the orbits of Earth and Venus. These solar weather buoys (SWBs) would carry instrumentation to detect and measure the material in solar flares, solar energetic particle events, and coronal mass ejections as they flowed past the buoys, serving both as science probes and as a radiation early warning system for the Earth and interplanetary travelers to Mars. The baseline concept involves placing a mothercraft carrying the SWBs into a staging orbit at the Sun-Earth L1 libration point. The mothercraft departs the L1 orbit at the proper time to execute a trailing-edge lunar flyby near New Moon, injecting it into a heliocentric orbit with its perihelion interior to Earth s orbit. An alternative approach would involve the use of a Double Lunar Swingby (DLS) orbit, rather than the L1 orbit, for staging prior to this flyby. After injection into heliocentric orbit, the mothercraft releases the SWBs-all equipped with low-thrust pulsed plasma thrusters (PPTs)-whereupon each SWB executes a multi-day low-thrust finite bum around perihelion, lowering aphelion such that each achieves an elliptical phasing orbit of different orbital period from its companions. The resulting differences in angular rates of motion cause the spacecraft to separate. While the lead SWB achieves the mission orbit following an insertion burn at its second perihelion passage, the remaining SWBs must complete several revolutions in their respective phasing orbits to establish them in the mission orbit with the desired longitudinal spacing. The complete configuration for a 14 SWB scenario using a single mothercraft is achieved in about 8 years, and the spacing remains stable for at least a further 6 years. Flight operations can be simplified, and mission risk reduced, by employing two mothercraft instead of one. In this scenario: the second mothercraft stays in a libration-point or DLS staging orbit until the first mothercraft has achieved nearly 180 separation from the Earth. The timing of the second mothercraft's subsequent lunar flyby is planned such that this spacecraft will be located 180 from the first mothercraft upon completion of its heliocentric circularization maneuvers. Both groups of satellites then only have to spread out over 180 to obtain full 360 coverage around the Sun.

Muller, Ronald↗

NASA NTRS2006

Design and "As Flown" Radiation Environments for Materials in Low Earth Orbit

A conservative design approach was adopted by the International Space Station Program for specifying total ionizing radiation dose requirements for use in selecting and qualifying materials for construction of the International Space Station. The total ionizing dose design environment included in SSP 30512 Space Station Ionizing Radiation Design Environment is based on trapped proton and electron fluence derived from the solar maximum versions of the AE-8 and AP-8 models, respectively, specified for a circular orbit at 500 km altitude and 51.7 degree inclination. Since launch, the range of altitudes utilized for Space Station operations vary from a minimum of approximately 330 km to a maximum of approximately 405 km with a mean operational altitude less than 400 km. The design environment, therefore, overestimates the radiation environment because the particle flux in the South Atlantic Anomaly is the primary contributor to radiation dose in low Earth orbit and flux within the Anomaly is altitude dependent. In addition, a 2X multiplier is often applied to the design environment to cover effects from the contributions of galactic cosmic rays, solar energetic particle events, geomagnetic storms, and uncertainties in the trapped radiation models which are not explicitly included in the design environment. Application of this environment may give radiation dose overestimates on the order of 1OX to 30X for materials exposed to the space environment, suggesting that materials originally qualified for ten year exposures on orbit may be used for longer periods without replacement. In this paper we evaluate the "as flown" radiation environments derived from historical records of the ISS flight trajectory since launch and compare the results with the SSP 30512 design environment to document the magnitude of the radiation dose overestimate provided by the design environment. "As flown" environments are obtained from application of the AE-8/AP-8 trapped particle models along the ISS flight trajectory including variations in altitude due to decay of the vehicle orbit and periodic reboosts to higher altitudes. In addition, an estimate of the AE-8 model to predict low Earth orbit electron flux (because the radiation dose for thin materials is dominated by the electron component of the radiation environment) is presented based on comparisons of the AE-8 model to measurements of electron integral flux at approximately 850 km from the Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector on board the NOAA Polar Operational Environmental Satellite.

Minow, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS2007

Radiation Environments for Lunar Programs

Developing reliable space systems for lunar exploration and infrastructure for extended duration operations on the lunar surface requires analysis and mitigation of potential system vulnerabilities to radiation effects on materials and systems. This paper reviews the characteristics of space radiation environments relevant to lunar programs including the trans-Earth and trans-lunar injection trajectories through the Earth's radiation belts, solar wind surface dose environments, energetic solar particle events, and galactic cosmic rays and discusses the radiation design environments being developed for lunar program requirements to assure that systems operate successfully in the space environment.

Minow, Joseph I.↗