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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Morphology-driven oxygen evolution performance of NiO x nanostructures and implications for hole transport in perovskite solar cells

Morphology-controlled nanostructures provide an effective strategy to modulate both oxygen evolution reaction (OER) activity and photovoltaic performance in perovskite solar cells (PSCs). However, achieving low OER overpotentials and high power conversion efficiency (PCE) simultaneously through morphology engineering remains challenging. In this work, nickel oxide (NiO x ) nanostructures with spindle-like (NiO x -NS) and plate-like (NiO x -NP) morphologies were synthesized and evaluated as bi-functional OER catalysts and hole transport layers (HTLs) in inverted PSCs. Structural and thermal analyses reveal that NiO x -NS crystallizes into a cubic phase at a lower temperature (300 °C), whereas NiO x -NP requires higher calcination temperatures, reflecting differences in precursor microstructure. Electrochemical measurements indicate that NiO x -NS calcined at 300 °C delivers the lowest OER overpotential (395 mV at 10 mA cm −2 ), outperforming NiO x -NP calcined at 400 °C (565 mV) and 500 °C (474 mV). This enhanced activity is ascribed to favorable surface strain, increased defect density, and advantageous facet exposure. When used as HTLs, NiO x -NS also delivers the highest PCE (13.25%) among all tested devices, exceeding those based on NiO x -NP and commercial NiO x , owing to improved hole extraction and interfacial contact. Overall, this study highlights the importance of morphology control and thermal processing in tailoring NiO x for multifunctional nanomaterials in electrocatalytic and photovoltaic applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Geomagnetic Induced Current Neutral Blocking Devices on Distance Relays in Sub-transmission Networks with IBR

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) can flow through transmission lines during geomagnetic disturbances, such as solar flares or coronal mass ejections. These currents can cause problems like transformer saturation and equipment damage. The most common method of mitigating GICs involves installing GIC neutral blocking devices (NBDs) in transformer neutrals. However, the wide application of capacitive GIC blocking devices may have unintended adverse effects on other devices, such as distance protection relays. As the number of inverter-based resources being connected to the transmission and sub-transmission systems increases, the likelihood of a sub-transmission line protected by a distance relay connected to a transformer with NBDs is increasing. Therefore, distance relays fed by IBRs and transmission lines with GIC-NBDs must be studied. This paper studies the effect of GIC-NBDs on a 69kV sub-transmission line of various lengths fed by a 25 MVA IBR and synchronous source. This work focused on the behavior of the GIC-NBDs using the measured apparent phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase impedance calculated by the relay and the source impedance ratio (SIR) during various electrical faults.

Patel, Trupal R [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enabling ITO-free perovskite solar cells through n-doped poly(benzodifurandione) (n-PBDF) electrodes

The burgeoning commercialization of perovskite solar cells (PSCs) is propelled by their exceptional power conversion efficiency (PCE), enhanced stability, and ease of fabrication. However, the rigidity of mainstream transparent conductive oxides (TCOs) limits the adaptability of PSCs to various application scenarios. Although alternative materials such as silver nanowires, carbon nanotubes, graphene, and PEDOT:PSS have been evaluated, the p-type nature confines their device designs to inverted architecture and restricts broader applicability. Here, for the first time, a conducting polymer electrode based on n-doped poly(benzodifurandione) (n-PBDF) was used to replace TCOs in PSCs. The n-PBDF electrodes can be readily fabricated via low-temperature, solution-based processes, indicating substantial potential for reducing manufacturing costs. Furthermore, its integration into PSCs has negligible effect on the phase, morphology, or photophysical properties of the perovskite layer, which is comparable to the typical TCOs. After optimization, the n-PBDF-based device achieves a power conversion efficiency of 12.70 and 11.23%, for rigid and flexible devices, respectively. Our study provides a promising alternative to the widely used TCOs in PSCs, highlighting the advantages of using n-doped conducting polymers in terms of processability and flexibility.

Kumar, Prashant [Purdue University, West Lafayette↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Energy Storage System at Borrego Springs Towards an H2 Enabled 100% Renewable Microgrid

San Diego Gas & Electric's Borrego Springs Microgrid is one of the largest microgrids in the USA, serving 2500 residential customers, 300 commercial and industrial customers, and has a peak demand of approximately 14 MW. This microgrid is located at the end of a long transmission line, and is subjected to extreme weather events like storms, wildfires, and flooding, which frequently cause grid outages. The microgrid currently relies on 3.65 MW of diesel-powered generators to provide grid-forming services during these outages, which results in greenhouse gas and criteria pollutant emissions. However, the microgrid has access to approximately 37 MW of installed solar generation and struggles with overgeneration and curtailment. 1.5 MW/4.5 MWh of grid-scale batteries have been installed to capture some the overgeneration and provide resiliency, but a longer-duration low-greenhouse gas emission energy storage solution is needed. In our project, the team will evaluate in the lab and demonstrate in the field a grid-forming fuel cell inverter that can provide grid-forming services while utilizing hydrogen's energy storage scalability. We will first utilize NREL's Renewable Energy Integration and Optimization (REopt) platform to perform analyses on future microgrid scenarios that use hydrogen assets to reduce or eliminate the need for diesel backup generators. We will then evaluate the grid-forming inverter through power hardware-in-the-loop and controller hardware-in-the-loop experiments at ARIES, and de-risk the field deployment and operation of hydrogen assets in the microgrid setting. Finally, this project will demonstrate the operation of the fuel cell inverter and updated microgrid controller by operating in grid-forming mode in the Borrego Springs microgrid.

blackstart with fuel cells↗
DOE OSTI2024

FIDVR Capability of Hybrid Grid-Forming PV Power Plants During Feeder Restoration

Grid-forming inverters must optimally transfer power from dc-coupled photovoltaic arrays and batteries into an ac grid. Further, they must be able to restore single-phase induction motors (SPIMs) and withstand fault-induced delayed voltage-recovery (FIDVR) events. These resilience and reliability challenges are addressed here by: (i) engineering a controller to optimally operate dc-coupled hybrid resources; (ii) modeling residential air-conditioning compressors for restoration/FIDVR studies; and (iii) analyzing SPIM thermal-relay performance under limited inverter currents and designing an electronic protection for stalled SPIMs. Furthermore, these contributions are demonstrated via electromagnetic-transient simulations and can be helpful to understand recommendations by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic Analysis and Response Support (PARS) Platform for Solar Situational Awareness and Resiliency Services

The project's primary objective is to develop a digital-twin based Photovoltaic (PV) Analysis and Response Support (PARS) platform, which aims to provide real-time situational awareness and optimal response plans. This platform is designed to enhance the performance of hybrid PV systems, making them competitive with or even superior to conventional generation resources. The PARS platform enabled the project team to develop and evaluate an extensive suite of grid support functionalities for the hybrid PV systems to enhance grid performance, across key areas including visibility, dispatchability, security, resilience, and reliability. Given the global push toward achieving 100% clean energy by 2035, there is a significant increase in the integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) throughout the energy grid. Effectively managing the inherent variability and uncertainty associated with IBRs is crucial for ensuring cost-effectiveness, reliability, and security in both the main grid and islanded microgrids. Constrained to a limited array of IEEE test systems or standard feeder models, traditional IBR modeling struggles to assimilate new field data, accurately reflect system dynamics, and adapt to the evolving energy landscape. In our project, we embraced a Digital Twin (DT) strategy for crafting the PARS platform. A digital twin acts as a precise virtual counterpart of a physical system, built on historical data and continuously honed with real-time insights. This enables the high-fidelity DT to accurately mirror current system operations and forecast future scenarios. Consequently, the PARS platform becomes an ideal environment for testing and refining monitoring, control, power, and energy management algorithms designed to boost hybrid PV system performance. The defining feature of the PARS platform, distinguishing it from other advanced simulation tools, is its exceptional adaptability. This is achieved by employing actual network topologies and utilizing real-time field data for fine-tuning and calibration, ensuring a close emulation of real-world conditions. The project deliverables include: 1) High-fidelity IBR models and tools for real-time parameterization, utilizing real-time field measurements to refine IBR models for enhanced accuracy and performance; 2) Grid-forming and Grid-following capabilities to deliver resilience services, including blackstart, voltage and frequency support, cold-load pick-up, power reserves, and three-phase load balancing across grid-connected and microgrid settings; 3) Machine learning-based forecasting tools and methods for generating synthetic data and topologies, creating diverse and realistic simulation environments for evaluating varied operational scenarios; 4) Advanced microgrid power and energy management algorithms for optimizing the integration and operation of PV, storage, and demand response resources within both feeder and community scales. The power grid data sets are provided by four utility companies in North Carolina and the New York Power Administration. Acting as industry advisors, our industry partners communicated stakeholder needs and regulatory standards to the research teams, aiding technology transfer by incorporating the developed methodologies into their daily operations. This collaboration ensures that the PARS platform, functioning as a power system digital twin, enhances our understanding of IBR dynamic behaviors and enables the development and evaluation of IBR control functions that match or exceed the capabilities of conventional synchronous generators.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Grid-Forming and -Following Background, Future, and Strategies

This paper reviews current grid forming (GFM) and grid following (GFL) inverter control strategies and explores the optimized ratio between these assets in high-penetration inverter-based resource (IBR) grids. Two case studies demonstrate that an insufficient GFM ratio leads to instability, while increasing GFM participation improves fault recovery, voltage stability, and frequency regulation.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

5G Securely Energized and Resilient: (5G-SER) (Final Report)

NREL's work on 5G integration with physical power systems (versus simulated systems demonstrated in task 3) under 5G-Securely Energized and Resilient (5G-SER) achieved a major milestone in with the completion of Task 4 activities. After many months (6+) of planning and development along with scaling challenges along the way, a full 5G end-to-end network with physical hardware components (physical inverter, physical power panel, physical battery, etc.) was deployed in a containerized environment. In parallel, a distributed controls architecture for a microgrid powering 5G resources was also successfully modified from its previous instantiation for a simulated environment to work with these physical components. These accomplishments set the stage to use newly setup 5G technology with physical microgrid components to test the feasibility of 5G wireless with physical systems to enable resilient communications between controls and distributed solar and storage resources while exploring ways to configure 5G components to survive power disturbances. The results detailed in the report below show that even utilizing physical components, 5G wireless systems were able to provide resilient results that were similar to the results from the simulated environment Task 3).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Supply Chain for Photovoltaics in the United States: 2024 in Review

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage system (BESS) technologies are two immediately available options for meeting U.S. electricity demands, which are increasing due to expansion of loads from end uses including data centers, buildings, vehicles, and factories. Globally, PV and BESS supply chains are dominated by products manufactured in China and elsewhere by Chinese companies. However, U.S. PV and BESS manufacturing have recently grown, with some capacity in each step of the PV supply chain, albeit not enough to currently meet demand with domestic manufacturing alone. This study analyzes U.S. PV supply chains and costs in 2024, for the crystalline silicon and cadmium telluride module supply chains. The full report additionally addresses the PV balance of system, inverter and BESS supply chains. The study concludes with an analysis of technology installation trends, government support for domestic manufacturing, manufacturing jobs, and the domestic content of PV systems installed in the United States in 2024.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Control and Real-Time Simulation of Microgrids with EV Fast-Charging and Grid-Forming Resources

Fast charging stations (FCSs) for electric vehicles (EVs) can behave as constant power loads, which is problematic for the operation of grid-forming (GFM) inverter-based resources (IBRs). To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a control suite that makes FCSs responsive to ac voltage and frequency disturbances. To test the performance of the FCS controls, the paper also sets forth theory to compensate for time-delays appearing in the real-time simulation of microgrid models divided into several central processing units (CPUs). Furthermore, these contributions are showcased via multi-CPU real-time simulations of a faulted microgrid having EV FCSs and GFM IBRs powered by photovoltaic solar arrays as well as power hardware-in-the-loop experiments. These contributions are significant to address NERC recommendations and IEEE standards.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fluorinated polythiophenes with ester side chains for boosting the V OC and efficiency in non-fullerene polymer solar cells

As the power conversion efficiency (PCE) of organic photovoltaics (OPVs) approximates the 19 % threshold, wide bandgap (WBG) polythiophenes (PTs) have gained increasing attention due to their simple chemical structures and ease of synthesis, making them promising candidates for large-scale production. However, the benchmark polymer poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) is limited by its high-lying HOMO energy level, which restricts the open-circuit voltage (V OC ) in solar cells. Here, in this study, we introduce a novel series of PT derivatives (PDC8-T, PDC8-3T, PDC16-3T, and PDC16-3T-2F) featuring ester side chains designed to fine-tune electronic properties through a streamlined three-step synthesis. Additionally, we incorporated a π-spacer to reduce steric hindrance and elongated alkyl side chains to improve solubility and processability. Compared to P3HT, these PT derivatives demonstrate a significant reduction in HOMO energy levels, lowering by approximately 0.3–0.4 eV. Among them, PDC16-3T-2F—with fluorine atom substitution—achieves the lowest HOMO energy level, induces a coplanar molecular conformation, and enhances polymer aggregation behavior. We evaluated these PT derivatives in inverted non-fullerene bulk-heterojunction (NFA BHJ) OPVs. The PDC8-3T device showed a relatively low PCE of 0.69 %, with a V OC of 0.76 V, a short-circuit current density (J SC ) of 3.32 mA/cm 2 , and a fill factor (FF) of 27.3 %. In contrast, the PDC16-3T-2F device achieved an impressive PCE of 7.21 %, with a V OC of 0.85 V, a J SC of 14.60 mA/cm 2 , and an FF of 58.4 %. This remarkable improvement is attributed to the fluorine substitution, which not only enhances molecular orientation but also downshifts the HOMO energy level and further boosts the V OC . Hence, these molecular design strategies have led to a fibrillar bicontinuous interpenetrating network with optimal nanoscale phase separation within the active layer.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seasonal Cost-Benefit Analysis of Automated Distribution Feeder Upgrades with Advanced Mitigation Technologies

The increasing deployment of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) to meet clean energy goals can trigger adverse grid operation issues, such as voltage excursions and the violation of thermal loading constraints of the power delivery elements (e.g., lines and transformers) on the evolving electricity infrastructure. Such integration issues would require distribution upgrades with associated costs to mitigate them and to maintain reliable and resilient grid operating conditions. Traditional distribution network upgrade approaches use a specific single snapshot analysis that is overly conservative. This study considers a multi-time point analysis to capture both moderate (probable bounds) and extreme grid operating conditions using time points such as minimum load with minimum photovoltaics (PV), maximum load with maximum PV, maximum load with minimum PV, and minimum load with maximum PV. Further, this study investigates seasonal variation impacts and associated distribution upgrade costs for a spring season case (March, representing a low load and high PV scenario) and a summer case (July, representing a high load and high PV scenario). Such seasonal analysis will allow system operators to characterize upgrade requirements and associated costs across various periods. Because the spatial distribution of DPV can impact upgrade and associated costs, this study investigates three common DPV deployment scenarios - randomly deployed, close to the substation, and far from the substation - at different penetration levels. Apart from spatial distribution impacts, this project evaluates the techno-economic impacts of the nodal photovoltaic penetration factor (NPPF) for generating the various DPV deployment scenarios at increasing penetration levels. This project investigates the impact of varying nodal PV-to-load ratios using conservative and extreme NPPF values of 3 and 10, respectively. This study investigates the deployment of traditional infrastructure upgrade strategies, such as installing new voltage regulating equipment, transformers and lines replacements, and the activation of advanced inverter functionality (e.g., autonomous volt/VAR) in expanding PV hosting capacity. Existing DPV systems are assumed to operate with the legacy unity power factor, and we considered the possibility of retrofitting such systems with the activation of volt/VAR control as integration standards and regulations continue to evolve to allow such functions. The cost-benefit analysis metrics used in study include distribution upgrade costs, average cost per watt of the upgrade cost, average marginal cost per watt of the upgrade cost, and power losses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regional Inertia Estimation Using Actual Event Measurements: Florida Case

As inverter-based resources’ integration in power grids increases, their uneven distribution across the electrical network leads to the formation of local regions that are weakly coupled to the larger interconnection. This signifies the necessity of regional frequency dynamics investigation and analyzing various inertia metrics. This paper presents a practical methodology for estimating regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF) using actual event recordings, which is then used to evaluate regional inertia. Florida (FL) is selected as the region of interest due to its distinct regional frequency dynamics and the rising levels of solar generation. We identify and analyze confirmed events from 2017 to 2024 that occurred in FL. The results indicate that FL contributes about 14% to the total inertia of the US Eastern Interconnection, which approximately matches its share of generation capacity. Results also highlight seasonal fluctuations in energy generation, which play a significant role in influencing inertia and thus the RoCoF levels. This emphasizes the importance of estimating regional inertia to enhance grid operations for a future that focuses on distributed generation.

Dulal, Saurav [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Q1-2024 Solar Cost Benchmarks

Each year, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) and its national laboratory partners develop cost benchmarks for U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. These benchmarks track progress toward reducing solar costs and guide R&D priorities. Unlike typical studies that report only $/W, SETO uses intrinsic units (e.g., $/m² for mounting structures) to better capture how technology improvements such as module efficiency would impact system costs. This allows flexible modeling where inputs can vary significantly to assess cost sensitivity. Costs are reported in two ways: Minimum Sustainable Price (MSP): Long term, financially viable price under stable market conditions. Modeled Market Price (MMP): Actual market price, influenced by short term distortions such as tariffs or subsidies. Three national labs collect cost data from industry stakeholders, ensuring no duplication in outreach to stakeholders. Data reflects real transactions (primarily from Q1) and is weighted based on the number of sources per cost element. The PV System Cost Model (PVSCM) divides total installed system cost into eight categories: 1. Module (PV) 2. Inverter 3. Energy Storage System (ESS) 4. Structural BOS (SBOS) 5. Electrical BOS (EBOS) 6. Fieldwork 7. Office work 8. Other (developer/EPC costs) The first five are hardware costs, while the last three are soft costs. Each category includes fixed and variable cost components, where “size” depends on context (e.g., manufacturing capacity for modules vs. system capacity for installation costs). Variable costs are expressed using appropriate intrinsic units. The model reflects the owner’s upfront overnight capital cost, excluding tax credits. Tariffs and subsidies are treated as temporary market distortions affecting MMP but not MSP. PVSCM is implemented in Excel, where cost elements are aggregated into total system cost. Additional sheets handle unit conversions and operation & maintenance (O&M), with O&M costs levelized over the system’s lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Amidination of ligands for chemical and field-effect passivation stabilizes perovskite solar cells

Surface passivation has driven the rapid increase in the power conversion efficiency (PCE) of perovskite solar cells (PSCs). However, state-of-the-art surface passivation techniques rely on ammonium ligands that suffer deprotonation under light and thermal stress. We developed a library of amidinium ligands, of interest for their resonance effect–enhanced N–H bonds that may resist deprotonation, to increase the thermal stability of passivation layers on perovskite surfaces. This strategy resulted in a >10-fold reduction in the ligand deprotonation equilibrium constant and a twofold increase in the maintenance of photoluminescence quantum yield after aging at 85°C under illumination in air. Here, implementing this approach, we achieved a certified quasi–steady-state PCE of 26.3% for inverted PSCs; and we report retention of ≥90% PCE after 1100 hours of continuous 1-sun maximum power point operation at 85°C.

Yang, Yi↗
DOE OSTI2026

Protection of Inverter-Dependent Transmission Systems (PROTECT-IT)

This presentation highlights the overall objectives of the SETO funded protection project. The main technical approaches are also highlighted. This high impact project produces multiple innovative outcomes, including comprehensive impact study of how IBR affects protection elements, simplified low-order IBR model for protection engineers, enhanced and data-driven protection design, co-design concept for coordination protection and IBRs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unified Universal Control and Coordination of Inverter-Based Resources, and Validation for a PV + Battery Hybrid Plant

As renewable energy deployment grows, hybrid power plants (HPPs) combining photovoltaic (PV) and battery systems must evolve to offer both energy and grid stability services. These systems typically include a mix of grid-following (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM) inverters, presenting unique coordination and control challenges. This Department of Energy–funded project developed and validated a Unified Universal Control and Coordination (UUCC) framework for such PV + battery hybrid plants, enabling seamless and stable operation, including ultrafast black start, autonomous synchronization, and robust frequency and voltage regulation, under different grid conditions. The project significantly advanced the understanding of inverter-based resource (IBR) control by developing and validating three complementary system-level approaches for hybrid GFL/GFM operation: 1. A combined Virtual Resistance (VR)-based GFL and Virtual Oscillator Control (VOC)-based GFM method, where each inverter type is governed by a specialized control strategy. Together, these achieve stable, fast-response coordination, eliminating inrush current and enabling smooth black start and grid synchronization across a wide range of grid strengths. 2. A Deadbeat-based UUCC strategy, which uses discrete-time, switching-cycle-level control for both GFL and GFM inverters. This approach replaces traditional PI/PLL control with a control parameter-free, high-bandwidth framework that supports stable LVRT and instantaneous synchronization under all conditions. 3. A benchmark comparison with Siemens’ commercial GFM microgrid controller, which provided a fast baseline platform. The commercial approach decoupled v & f control was implemented on a commercial microgrid controller.The baseline commercial benchmark helped highlight superior transient response and black start performance offered by the deadbeat and VOC approaches. These technical contributions offer substantial improvements over conventional inverter control schemes, which often rely on slow phase-locked loop (PLL)-based synchronization, require careful control parameters tuning, and prone to unstable in weak grids with GFL inverters and in stiff grid with GFM inverters therefore challenging for hybrid GFL+GFM under all grid conditions. The deadbeat-based UUCC framework enables simpler, faster, and more robust operation of hybrid IBR systems using wide-bandgap (WBG) devices such as SiC power semiconductors. The rapid expansion of hybrid distributed energy resources (DERs), including residential and commercial PV-BESS installations such as Tesla Powerwall, PV with vehicle-to-grid (V2G) capability, and other integrated configurations, presents complex operational challenges for medium-voltage radial distribution feeders. These networks are subject to frequent disturbances such as faults, switching operations, rapid reclosing sequences, and feeder reconfigurations, all of which introduce dynamic stress on IBRs. In addition, planned feeder segmentation and deliberate islanding for resilience will require DERs that can autonomously perform blackstart, establish voltage and frequency references, and resynchronize with the main grid. The advanced deadbeat-based UUCC control and blackstart functionalities developed in this project directly address these requirements, enabling decentralized and autonomous operation of inverter-dominated DERs in distribution systems under a wide range of fault and reconfiguration scenarios. From a public benefit perspective, these innovations enable more reliable and cost-effective integration of renewable energy into distribution networks. The ability to autonomously black start and stabilize grids under varying grid conditions support accelerates recovery from outages and support decentralized resilient energy systems. By reducing system complexity and improving performance, this project lays critical groundwork for future inverter-dominated power grids that are clean, reliable, and accessible to all.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

PV Generation and Load Forecasting for Adjuntas PR Community Microgrids

Existing frameworks to forecast time-series photovoltaic (PV) output power and consumer load for microgrid operations and controls assume a near-continuous availability of real-time input features from the field assets such as PV inverters, energy meters, and weather station. These incoming data points are used to periodically retrain models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window, be it one hour-ahead, one-day ahead, or one-week ahead. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. Hence, there is a need for programs that assume no availability of real-time microgrid asset data and still make reliable forecasts that can be used for decision-making. Such programs would be apt to function in extreme weather events such as hurricanes and would use lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance and ambient temperature, then compute PV power from those forecasts, as well as independently forecast consumer load. The codebase performs forecasting for the scenario of when the microgrid does not have a reliable access to forecasts or real-time observations of solar irradiance (I) and ambient temperature (AT) and load (Load) to be able to adequately forecast, in real-time, the PV power production or a business' load. In this case, using historical values of PV power and load, a univariate forecasting of generation and consumption are respectively made. The use-case in particular has two sub-scenarios: one, a normal 7-day ahead forecast where the unavailability of real-time data is assumed due to infrastructure issues such as loss of communication or sensor maintenance or service downtimes. Whereas a hurricane-caused unavailability of real-time data requires a second model trained specifically on historical hurricane days to be able to capture the extreme day behavior of generation in particular, and load if applicable. A gradient boosted regression tree comprises an ensemble of additive models that map between the input of historical values (be it irradiance, temperature, or load) and their corresponding output forecasts of a given horizon such that the individual learner predictions are summed up over the total number of such learners in the ensemble to produce an aggregate forecast. A weighting mechanism is applied to the training data in each iteration, where actual and forecast values are compared to penalize incorrect forecasts by increasing the weight and reducing it to reward correct forecasts. The code's benefits are that it: (a) accounts for a contingency where communication loss renders newly measured real-time data unavailable for model tuning and snapshot updates; (b) presents blind forecasting that recursively determines the next time-step value in a horizon using the forecast of the same attribute from a prior step; and (c) employs lightweight models that, once trained, can reliably generalize for different horizons, which make them suitable for enhancing the resilience of field microgrids prone to extreme events that encounter disruptions to data availability.

Sundararajan, Aditya [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗