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The report present the atmosphere, ocean color, land and solar irradiation data sets. The data presented: total ozone, aerosol, cloud optical and physical parameters, temperature and humidity profiles, radiances, rain fall, drop size distribution.
During the FIRE (First ISCPP Regional Experiment) Arctic Cloud Experiment and coincident SHEBA (Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean) campaign, detailed moderate resolution solar spectral measurements were made to study the radiative energy budget of the coupled Arctic Ocean - Atmosphere system. The NASA Ames Solar Spectral Flux Radiometers (SSFRs) were deployed on the NASA ER-2 and at the SHEBA ice camp. Using the SSFRs we acquired continuous solar spectral irradiance (380-2200 nm) throughout the atmospheric column. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to characterize the several tens of thousands of retrieved SSFR spectra and to determine the number of independent pieces of information that exist in the visible to near-infrared solar irradiance spectra. It was found in both the upwelling and downwelling cases that almost 100% of the spectral information (irradiance retrieved from 1820 wavelength channels) was contained in the first six extracted principal components. The majority of the variability in the Arctic downwelling solar irradiance spectra was explained by a few fundamental components including infrared absorption, scattering, water vapor and ozone. PCA analysis of the SSFR upwelling Arctic irradiance spectra successfully separated surface ice and snow reflection from overlying cloud into distinct components.
In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-solar ensemble prediction system and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Database observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by considering the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The analog ensemble calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes, such as reliability and statistical consistency.
In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-Solar Ensemble System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by taking into account the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes such as reliability and statistical consistency.
The integration of thermal energy storage into a concentrating solar power system allows for mitigating some of the risk associated with uncertain solar irradiance and uncertain energy prices. We solve a 48 h dispatch optimization model with continually updated conditional point forecasts of both direct normal irradiance (DNI) and electricity prices with a rolling-horizon scheme at hourly resolution over the course of a year. Joint, conditional forecasts for DNI and prices are formed using an autoregressive moving-average time series model with exogenous weather predictors. We guide dispatch using a mixed-integer programming model, but in order to evaluate performance we use the System Advisor Model (SAM) of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. SAM is a techno-economic simulation model that accounts for plant thermodynamics with higher fidelity. Our conditional DNI forecasts improve annual revenue by 4%–12% over using historical forecasts based on data from previous years. Conditional price forecasts improve annual revenue by 6%–19% in the real-time market over analogous historical forecasts. Updating these forecasts every six hours, rather than every 24 h, further improves annual revenue by 5%–6%. Here, we also investigate a method that values terminal inventory in our dispatch optimization model, again when used in a rolling-horizon scheme.
It is suggested that the mean direct solar irradiance at Table Mountain, California (100 km NE of Los Angeles at an elevation of 2460 m) in July over the 1926-77 period has not changed by more than the standard errors associated with the means of the observations. Data were not collected systematically in the years between 1952 and 1977. If the conclusion which is based partly on a single month of observation in 1977 is valid, change in the atmospheric transmission-solar 'constant' product does not exceed plus or minus one percent.
We have used wavelets to analyze the sunspot number, F10.7 (the solar irradiance at a wavelength of approx.10.7 cm), and Ap (a geomagnetic activity index). Three different wavelets are compared, showing how each selects either temporal or scale resolution. Our goal is an envelope of solar activity that better bounds the large amplitude fluctuations form solar minimum to maximum. We show how the 11-year cycle does not disappear at solar minimum, that minimum is only the other part of the solar cycle. Power in the fluctuations of solar-activity-related indices may peak during solar maximum but the solar cycle itself is always present. The Ap index has a peak after solar maximum that appears to be better correlated with the current solar cycle than with the following cycle.
Several components contribute to the observed variations of the total solar irradiance. There has been considerable effort expended on building empirical models for specific components, especially for sunspots and faculae. These models typically use time series of ground-based data as a means of representing the total-irradiance variability. The models may help to identify the physical cause of a variation; the parameters of a model (e.g. the effective temperature of a sunspot) may be determinable via correlation with the total-irradiance observations; the models may be used as proxy representations for total-irradiance variability during periods of no data; finally, the models in principle can be used as a basis for 'correcting' the total-irradiance data, as a means for better identification of additional components of variability.
Moderate resolution spectra of the downwelling solar irradiance at the around in north central Oklahoma were measured during the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Intensive Observation Period in the fall of 1997. Spectra obtained under cloud-free conditions were compared with calculations using a coarse resolution radiative transfer model to examine the dependency of model-measurement bias on water vapor. It was found that the bias was highly correlated with water vapor and increased at a rate of 9 W/sq m per cm of water. The source of the discrepancy remains undetermined because of the complex dependencies of other variables, most notably aerosol optical depth, on water vapor.
Moderate resolution spectra of the downwelling solar irradiance at the ground in north central Oklahoma were measured during the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Intensive Observation Period in the fall of 1997. Spectra obtained under-cloud-free conditions were compared with calculations using a coarse resolution radiative transfer model to examine the dependency of model-measurement bias on water vapor. It was found that the bias was highly correlated with water vapor and increased at a rate of 9 Wm per cm of water. The source of the discrepancy remains undetermined because of the complex dependencies of other variables, most notably aerosol optical depth, on water vapor.
Moderate resolution spectra of the downwelling solar irradiance at the ground in north central Oklahoma were measured during the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Intensive Observation Period in the fall of 1997. Spectra obtained under cloud-free conditions were compared with calculations using a coarse resolution radiative transfer model to examine the dependency of model-measurement bias on water vapor. It was found that the bias was highly correlated with water vapor and increased at a rate of 9 Wm(exp -2) per cm of water. The source of the discrepancy remains undetermined because of the complex dependencies of other variables, most notably aerosol optical depth, on water vapor.
Long-term, incoming total solar irradiance (TSI) measurement trends were validated using proxy TSI values, derived from indices of solar magnetic activity. Spacecraft active cavity radiometers (ACR) are being used to measure longterm TSI variability, which may trigger global climate changes. The TSI, typically referred to as the solar constant, was normalized to the mean earth-sun distance. Studies of spacecraft TSI data sets confirmed the existence of a 0.1 %, long-term TSI variability component within a 10-year period. The 0.1% TSI variability component is clearly present in the spacecraft data sets from the 1984-2004 time frame. Typically, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were used to validate long-term TSI variability trends. However, during the years of 1978-1984, 1989-1991, and 1993-1996, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were not available in order to validate TSI trends. The TSI was found to vary with indices of solar magnetic activity associated with recent 10-year sunspot cycles. Proxy TSI values were derived from least squares analyses of the measured TSI variability with the solar indices of 10.7-cm solar fluxes, and with limb-darked sunspot fluxes. The resulting proxy TSI values were compared to the spacecraft ACR measurements of TSI variability to detect ACR instrument degradation, which may be interpreted as TSI variability. Analyses of ACR measurements and TSI proxies are presented primarily for the 1984-2004, Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) ACR solar monitor data set. Differences in proxy and spacecraft measurement data sets suggest the existence of another TSI variability component with an amplitude greater than or equal to 0.5 Wm-2 (0.04%), and with a cycle of 20 years or more.
This paper presents a brief survey of the data available on solar constant and extraterrestrial solar spectral irradiance. The spectral distribution of solar radiation at ground surface, computed from extraterrestrial solar spectral irradiance for several air mass values and for four levels of atmospheric pollution, is also presented. The total irradiance at ground level is obtained by integration of the area under the spectral irradiance curves. It is significant that, as air mass increases or as turbidity increases, the amount of energy in the infrared relative to the total increases and that the energy in the UV and visible decreases.
A NASA sounding rocket experiment was developed to study the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiance and its effect on the upper atmosphere. Both the solar flux and the terrestrial molecular nitrogen via the Lyman-Birge-Hopfield bands in the far ultraviolet (FUV) were measured remotely from a sounding rocket on October 27, 1992. The rocket experiment also includes EUV instruments from Boston University (Supriya Chakrabarti), but only the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/University of Colorado (CU) four solar instruments and one airglow instrument are discussed here. The primary solar EUV instrument is a 1/4 meter Rowland circle EUV spectrograph which has flown on three rockets since 1988 measuring the solar spectral irradiance from 30 to 110 nm with 0.2 nm resolution. Another solar irradiance instrument is an array of six silicon XUV photodiodes, each having different metallic filters coated directly on the photodiodes. This photodiode system provides a spectral coverage from 0.1 to 80 nm with about 15 nm resolution. The other solar irradiance instrument is a silicon avalanche photodiode coupled with pulse height analyzer electronics. This avalanche photodiode package measures the XUV photon energy providing a solar spectrum from 50 to 12,400 eV (25 to 0.1 nm) with an energy resolution of about 50 eV. The fourth solar instrument is an XUV imager that images the sun at 17.5 nm with a spatial resolution of 20 arc-seconds. The airglow spectrograph measures the terrestrial FUV airglow emissions along the horizon from 125 to 160 nm with 0.2 nm spectral resolution. The photon-counting CODACON detectors are used for three of these instruments and consist of coded arrays of anodes behind microchannel plates. The one-dimensional and two-dimensional CODACON detectors were developed at CU by Dr. George Lawrence. The pre-flight and post-flight photometric calibrations were performed at our calibration laboratory and at the Synchrotron Ultraviolet Radiation Facility (SURF) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
The present status of our knowledge of the total and spectral irradiance of the sun is briefly reviewed. The currently accepted NASA/ASTM standard values of the solar constant and the extraterrestrial solar spectral irradiance are presented. The uncertainties in these values are relatively high. Data on the variability of the solar constant are conflicting and inconclusive. The variability of solar spectral irradiance is almost totally unknown and unexplored. Some alleged sun-weather relationships are cited in support of the need to know more precisely the variations in total and spectral solar irradiance. An overview of the solar monitoring program of NASA is presented, with special emphasis on the Solar Energy Monitor in Space (SEMIS) experiment which has been proposed for several spacecraft missions. The monitor is a combination of a solar-constant detector and a prism monochromator.
An analysis technique used to estimate the integrated liquid water content (LWC) from the measured solar irradiance is described. The cloud transmittance is computed by dividing the irradiance measured at some time by a clear sky value obtained at the same time on a cloudless day. From the transmittance and the zenith angle, the cloud LWC is computed using the radiative transfer parameterizations of Stephens et al., (1984). The results are compared with 17 days of mm-wave (20.6 and 31.65 GHz) radiometer measurements made during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Intensive Field Observation (IFO) in July of 1987.
Measurements of the total solar irradiance (TSI) during the last 18 years from spacecraft are reviewed. Corrections are determined for the early measurements made by the HF radiometer within the ERB experiment on NIMBUS 7 and the factor to refer active cavity radiometer irradiation monitoring (ACRIM) 2 to the ACRIM 1 irradiance scale. With these corrections, a composite TSI is constructed with a model that combines a magnetic brightness proxy with observed sunspot darkening and explains nearly 90 percent of the observed short and long term variance. Possible, but still unverified degradation of the radiometers hampers conclusions about irradiance changes on decadal time scales and longer.
Seven years of net surface solar irradiance (S) derived from cloud information provided by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and 4 years of surface latent heat flux (E) derived from the observations of the special sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) were used to examine the relation between surface heat fluxes and sea surface temperature (T(sub s)) in their global geographical distribution, seasonal cycle, and interannual variation. The relations of seasonal changes imply that evaporation cooling is significant over most of the ocean and that solar heating is the main drive for the change of T(sub s) away from the equatorial wave guide where ocean dynamics may be more important. However, T(sub s) is not the most direct and significant factor in the seasonal changes of S and E over most of the ocean; the solar incident angle may be more important to S, and wind speed and air humidity are found to correlate better with E. Significant local correlations between anomalies of T(sub s) and S and between anomalies of T(sub s) and E are found in the central equatorial Pacific; both types of correlation are negative. The influence of ocean dynamics in changing T(sub s) in the tropical ocean cannot be ignored.