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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Did Geomagnetic Activity Challenge Electric Power Reliability During Solar Cycle 23? Evidence from the PJM Regional Transmission Organization in North America

During solar cycle 22, a very intense geomagnetic storm on 13 March 1989 contributed to the collapse of the Hydro-Quebec power system in Canada. This event clearly demonstrated that geomagnetic storms have the potential to lead to blackouts. This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged power system reliability during solar cycle 23. Operations by PJM Interconnection, LLC (hereafter PJM), a regional transmission organization in North America, are examined over the period 1 April 2002 through 30 April 2004. During this time PJM coordinated the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia in the United States. We examine the relationship between a proxy of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and a metric of challenged reliability. In this study, GICs are proxied using magnetometer data from a geomagnetic observatory located just outside the PJM control area. The metric of challenged reliability is the incidence of out-of-economic-merit order dispatching due to adverse reactive power conditions. The statistical methods employed make it possible to disentangle the effects of GICs on power system operations from purely terrestrial factors. The results of the analysis indicate that geomagnetic activity can significantly increase the likelihood that the system operator will dispatch generating units based on system stability considerations rather than economic merit.

storms↗
NASA NTRS1990

NOAA/TIROS and GOES Observations of Galactic and Solar Cosmic Rays over a Solar Cycle

Correlations between solar activity and atmospheric processes have been investigated for more than 30 years, and the reality of the strong correlations found has been well accepted. However, it remains problematic to establish mechanisms capable of coupling the physical manifestations of solar variability to the lower atmosphere. There has been to date a lack of long-term satellite measurements of particles of sufficient energy to penetrate the Earth's atmosphere. The NOAA Space Environment Laboratory has maintained energetic particle detectors on board the NOAA/TIROS and GOES series of satellites. These instruments monitor the flux of energetic protons to energies greater than about 800 MeV. Measurements of particles above 350 MeV began October 1978, and continue to date. The instruments are briefly described, along with the current program to reduce the data. The goal is to provide a data base that will help to assess the significance of variations of atmospheric and ionospheric properties due to energetic particle precipitation.

Sauer, Herbert H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Solar cycle changes in the ionization sources of the nightside Venus ionosphere

Using new and previous experimental evidence, it is argued that the height-integrated flux of O(+) ions transported from the dayside Venus ionosphere into the nightside ionosphere is strongly reduced (shut off) at solar cycle minimum (SCmin) and that the electron impact source becomes the predominant nightside ionization source during this phase of the solar cycle. The height-integrated transterminator O(+) flux, which is probably the dominant nightside ionization source at solar cycle maximum (SCmax), is shut off at SCmin by compression of the dayside ionopause to low altitude. It is suggested that the ionopause is depressed because the dayside ionospheric kinetic pressure field is reduced by a factor of approximately 3 from its SCmas value and that the typical SCmin solar wind dynamic pressure, which is not less than the typical SCmax value, cannot be balanced by the ionospheric pressure field at altitudes above approximately 250 km.

Knudsen, William C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

On the variation of the sun's X ray background flux and its relation to the sun's flaring rate, energetic event rate, and the solar cycle

Daily averages of the sun's X-ray background flux as measured by the GOES satellite are combined to yield monthly means and 'smoothed' monthly means (12-month moving averages) for the interval January 1986 through May 1992 (minimum rise, maximum, and initial decline of solar cycle 22). These averages are then compared directly to the sun's optical flaring rate, energetic event rate, and the usual markers of the solar cycle (e.g., sunspot number, total corrected sunspot area, and 10.7-cm solar radio flux, number of groups, and number of spots). The results of this analysis support previous findings that there exists a remarkably close positive relationship between the optical flaring rate and the X-ray background flux rate (the independent variable), and that the X-ray background flux rate can be used as a proxy for the solar cycle. Additionally, this study has found that a strong positive relationship exists between the energetic event rate and the X-ray background flux rate (the independent variable), and that the lag between the maxima of the rates of optical flaring and X-ray background flux reported for cycle 21 did not recur for cycle 22.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Comment on "Enhanced upper stratospheric ozone: Sign of recovery or solar cycle effect?"

[01] Steinbrecht et al. [2004] (hereinafter referred to as S4) have discussed the trend in upper stratospheric ozone at 35 -45-km altitude determined from their lidar measurements at Hohenpeissenberg (47.8degN, 11.0degE) from 1987 to 2003. They question the conclusion of Newchurch et al. [2003] (hereinafter referred to as N3) that after approximately 1997 the downward trend of upper stratospheric ozone at 35-45-km altitude has diminished significantly. They argue instead that recent ozone changes are associated with the recent solar maximum (i.e., the solar cycle effect on ozone). In this comment we question their procedure for identifying the solar cycle effect. Moreover, we argue that the solar cycle effect was appropriately accounted for in the N3 analysis, and we buttress our argument by demonstrating that the more extensive data set used by N3 shows that the trend in upper stratospheric ozone has diminished significantly since 1997 and that this is evidence of the first stage of ozone recovery.

Cunnold, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Jovian Northern Ethane Aurora and the Solar Cycle

Thermal infrared auroral spectra from Jupiter's North polar region have been collected from 1979 to 1998 in a continuing study of long-term variability in the northern thermal IR aurora, using C2H6 emission lines near 12 microns as a probe. Data from Voyager I and 2 IRIS measurements and ground based spectral measurements were analyzed using the same model atmosphere to provide a consistent relative comparison. A retrieved equivalent mole fraction was used to compare the observed integrated emission. Short term (days), medium term (months) and long term (years) variability in the ethane emission was observed. The variability Of C2H6 emission intensities was compared to Jupiter's seasonal cycle and the solar activity cycle. A positive correlation appears to exist, with significantly greater emission and short term variability during solar maxima. Observations on 60 N latitude during increased solar activity in 1979, 1989, and most recently in 1998 show up to 5 times brighter integrated line emission of C2H6 near the north polar "hot spot" (150-210 latitude) than from the north quiescent region. Significantly lower enhancement was observed during periods of lower solar activity in 1982, 1983, 1993, and 1995. Possible sources and mechanisms for the enhancement and variability will be discussed.

Kostiuk,T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Cycle 25 Model Prediction Comparisons: an Engineering Perspective

The solar cycle 25 progression is ramping up, prompting satellite operators to provide estimates of propellent usage over the next several years. Drag due to atmospheric heating from solar activity is the main driver to satellite lifetime decay, especially for those in low-Earth orbit destinations. In this poster, several model predictions of the sunspot number are compared and discussed with comments on applicability to engineering programs.

Space Weather↗
NASA NTRS1990

Effect of solar proton events on the middle atmosphere during the past two solar cycles as computed using a two-dimensional model

This paper investigates the effects of solar proton events (SPEs) on the middle atmosphere during the past two solar cycles (1963-1984), by examining changes in the production of odd nitrogen, NO(y), and ozone and using a proton energy degradation scheme to derive ion pair production rates. These calculations show that NO(y) is not substantially changed over a solar cycle by SPEs; significant SPEs last only 1-5 days, tend to occur near solar maximum, and are typically months to years apart, preventing a build up of SPE-produced NO(y). Fractional ozone changes are even smaller than the fractional NO(y) changes and are significant only for the August 1972 SPE. Ozone, like NO(y), returns to its ambient levels on time scales of several months to a year.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Antiprotons and Elementary Particles over a Solar Cycle: Results from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer

We present results over an 11-year Solar cycle of cosmic antiprotons based on 1.1 × 10 6 events in the rigidity range from 1.00 to 41.9 GV. The $\bar{𝑝}$ fluxes exhibit distinct properties. The magnitude of the $\bar{𝑝}$ flux temporal variation is significantly smaller than those of 𝑝, 𝑒 − , and 𝑒 + . A hysteresis between the $\bar{𝑝}$ fluxes and the 𝑝 fluxes is observed, whereas the $\bar{𝑝}$ and 𝑒 − fluxes show a linear correlation. With a model-independent analysis, we found a universal relation between the shape of the rigidity spectrum and the magnitude of flux temporal variation over an 11-year Solar cycle for both positively and negatively charged particles. The simultaneous results on $\bar{𝑝}$ and 𝑝, 𝑒 − , and 𝑒 + provide unique information for understanding particle transport in the Solar System as a function of mass, charge, and spectral shape.

cosmic ray composition & spectra↗
NASA NTRS1985

Ozone depletion during solar proton events in solar cycle 21

Ozone profile data from the Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet Instrument on Nimbus 7 from 1979 to the present and clear cases of ozone destruction associated with five sudden proton events (SPEs) on June 7, 1979, August 21, 1979, October 13-14, 1981, July 13, 1982, and December 8, 1982 are found. During the SPE on July 13, 1982, the largest of this solar cycle, no depletion at all at 45 km is observed, but there is a 15 percent ozone depletion at 50 km increasing to 27 percent at 55 km, all at a solar zenith angle of 85 deg. A strong variation of the observed depletion with solar zenith angle is found, with maximum depletion occurring at the largest zenith angles (near 85 deg) decreasing to near zero for angles below about 70 deg. The observed depletion is short lived, disappearing within hours of the end of the SPE.

Mcpeters, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Total ozone time variations during the spring reversals in the high latitudinal stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th and 21st solar cycles

The principal features of the thermodynamic regime of the stratosphere are governed by the development of the winter stratospheric low and the Aleutian and Atlantic heights. These are fed by the influx of the eddy energy transported into the stratosphere by the planetary waves. The intensity and variability of planetary waves and vortices associated with the waves determine the conditions of low-to-high latitudes ozone transport in the winter hemisphere. The ozone distributions are zonally inhomogeneous. The planetary wave dynamics are affected by solar activity variations during solar cycles. The 20th solar cycle maximum was accompanied by decreases of stratospheric planetary wave amplitudes, the 21st cycle was accompanied by increases of amplitudes.

Kidiyarova, V. G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The solar UV related changes in total ozone from a solar rotation to a solar cycle

The Nimbus-7 TOMS version 6 data, corrected for the instrument degradation, are analyzed to delineate the solar UV related changes in total ozone (TOZ) against background signals of dynamical origin. It is shown that the solar UV related change in TOZ over a solar cycle is about 1.5 percent that may be attributed to about 6 percent change in the solar UV flux near 200 nm. This estimate is also consistent with the solar UV related changes in TOZ over a time scale of a solar rotation. In the solar rotation case, ozone lags the solar UV by 3-4 days and its sensitivity to solar UV change is a factor of 2-3 less than for the solar cycle case. Both these effects are attributed to chemical time constants in the lower stratosphere that are comparable to the period of a solar rotation.

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Cosmic Ray Helium Intensities over the Solar Cycle from ACE

Observations of cosmic-ray helium energy spectra provide important constraints on cosmic ray origin and propagation. However, helium intensities measured at Earth are affected by solar modulation, especially below several GeV/nucleon. Observations of helium intensities over a solar cycle are important for understanding how solar modulation affects galactic cosmic ray intensities and for separating the contributions of anomalous and galactic cosmic rays. The Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (CRIS) on ACE has been measuring cosmic ray isotopes, including helium, since 1997 with high statistical precision. We present helium elemental intensities between approx. 10 to approx. 100 MeV/nucleon from the Solar Isotope Spectrometer (SIS) and CRIS observations over a solar cycle and compare these results with the observations from other satellite and balloon-borne instruments, and with GCR transport and solar modulation models.

DeNolfo, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Helioseismic Observations of Torsional Oscillations Inside the Sun and Their Potential for Predicting Solar Cycles

The helioseismic analysis of torsional oscillations of the Sun, obtained in 1996-2018 from SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) and SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), reveals the spatio-temporal dynamics associated with the dynamo process. The data reveal new relationships between the migrating magnetic field patterns observed in synoptic magnetograms and the dynamics of torsional oscillations near the surface and in the interior. In particular, it is found that the evolution of torsional oscillations in the deep convection zone is ahead of the surface magnetic evolution by several years, and that it is related to the extended solar cycle phenomenon previously observed in the solar corona. The data show substantial differences in the torsional oscillation properties between Cycles 23 and 24 indicating fundamental changes in the dynamo regime, and also reveal initiation of Cycle 25. The helioseismology observations of the torsional oscillations open new perspectives for understanding the global dynamo processes inside the Sun, and for predicting the next solar cycle.

Oscillations↗
DOE OSTI2025

Puzzling Variation of Gamma Rays from the Sun over the Solar Cycle Revealed with Fermi-LAT

The steady-state gamma-ray emission from the Sun is thought to consist of two emission components due to interactions with Galactic cosmic rays: (1) a hadronic disk component, and (2) a leptonic extended component peaking at the solar edge and extending into the heliosphere. The flux of these components is expected to vary with the 11 yr solar cycle, being highest during solar minimum and lowest during solar maximum, as it varies with the cosmic-ray flux. No study has yet analyzed the flux variation of each component over solar cycles. In this work, we measure the temporal variations of the flux of each component over 15 yr of Fermi Large Area Telescope observations and compare them with the sunspot number and Galactic cosmic-ray flux from AMS-02 near Earth. We find that the flux variation of the disk anticorrelates with the sunspot number and correlates with cosmic-ray protons, as expected, confirming its emission mechanism. In contrast, the extended component exhibits a more complex variation: despite an initial anticorrelation with the sunspot number, we find neither anticorrelation with the sunspot number nor correlation with cosmic-ray electrons over the full 15 yr period. This most likely suggests that cosmic-ray transport and modulation in the inner heliosphere are unexpectedly complex and may differ for electrons and protons or, alternatively, that there is an additional, unknown component of gamma rays or cosmic rays. These findings impact space weather research and emphasize the need for close monitoring of Cycle 25 and the ongoing polarity reversal.

Acharyya, A. [Univ. of Southern Denmark, Odense (D↗