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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Occurrence of seeding multi-layer clouds in the Arctic from ground-based observations

Studies of Arctic clouds often focus on low-level single-layer clouds (SLCs). Here, we use combined observations of soundings and cloud radar during the MOSAiC, ACSE, and AO2018 research cruises as well as from long-term observations at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard and Utqiagvik, Alaska to investigate the occurrence of SLCs and multi-layer clouds (MLCs) in the Arctic and to assess the rate of ice-crystal seeding in cold MLCs. MOSAiC observations show cloudy conditions in between 70 % and 90 % of sounding-radar cases. SLCs show occurrence rates of 30 % to 40 % with the highest value of 45 % during October. Cold MLCs are most abundant from November to June (40 % to 55 % of cases). Seeding occurs in about half to two thirds of the identified cold MLCs during MOSAiC for which the sub-saturated layer extends between 100 and 1000 m. The seeding rate increases by as much as 20 percentage points as the assumed size of the falling ice crystals is increased from 100 to 400 µm. The observations reveal a stable rate of cloud-free conditions of around 20 % over the covered latitude range. Cloud occurrence during MOSAiC and at Ny-Ålesund in July, when the geographical distance between observations was minimal, shows reasonable agreement. Comparisons of MOSAiC and other research cruises to the central Arctic also indicate consistent occurrence rates of different cloud types despite the likely effect of year-to-year variability. The comparison of data from ship campaigns and land sites suggests that the latter are not necessarily a good indicator of cloud occurrence in the high Arctic.

Achtert, Peggy [Leipzig Univ. (Germany); Meteorolo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Root exudation links root traits to soil functioning in agroecosystems

Root exudation is a key process for plant nutrient acquisition, but the controls on root exudation and its relationship to soil C and N processes in agroecosystems are unclear. We hypothesized that root exudation rates would be related to root morphological traits, N fertilization, and soil moisture. We also anticipated that root exudation would be correlated with bulk soil enzyme activity. Root exudation, root traits, and bulk soil extracellular enzyme activity were assessed in maize (Zea mays L.), soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.), biomass sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench), giant miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus), and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.). Measurements were taken in situ during two growing seasons with contrasting precipitation regimes, and N fertilization rate was varied in sorghum during one year. Specific root exudation (per unit root surface area) was negatively related to root diameter and was generally higher in annuals than perennials. Sorghum N fertilization did not affect root exudation rates, and soil moisture regime had no effect on annual root exudation rates within maize, sorghum, and miscanthus. Specific root exudation was negatively related to bulk soil C- and N-degrading soil enzyme activities. Intrinsic plant characteristics appeared more important than environmental variables in controlling in situ root exudation rates. The relationships between root diameter, root exudation, and soil C and N processes link root morphological traits to soil functions and demonstrate the potential tradeoffs among plant nutrient acquisition strategies in agroecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Five-day track forecast skills of WRF model for the western North Pacific tropical cyclones

In this study, the characteristics of simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific by a regional model (the WRF Model) are verified. We utilize 12-km horizontal grid spacing, and simulations are integrated for 5 days from model initialization. A total of 125 forecasts are divided into five clusters through the k-means clustering method. The TCs in the cluster 1 and 2 (group 1), which includes many TCs moving northward in the subtropical region, generally have larger track errors than for TCs in cluster 3 and 4 (group 2). The optimal steering vector is used to examine the difference in the track forecast skill between these two groups. The bias in the steering vector between the model and analysis data is found to be more substantial for group 1 TCs than group 2 TCs. The larger steering vector difference for group 1 TCs indicates that environmental fields tend to be poorly simulated in group 1 TC cases. Furthermore, the residual terms, including the storm-scale process, asymmetric convection distribution, or beta-related effect, are also larger for group 1 TCs than group 2 TCs. Therefore, it is probable that the large track forecast error for group 1 TCs is a result of unreasonable simulations of environmental wind fields and residual processes in the midlatitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A General Spatiotemporal Imputation Framework for Missing Sensor Data

Many applications from precision agriculture, environmental monitoring and transportation networks rely on data collected across space and time over a large geographic area. Missing data poses a significant challenge for any data-driven inference and control tasks. Data imputation or the estimation of missing data can help fill these gaps by utilizing inherent spatial relationships and temporal patterns. A variety of spatiotemporal imputation models have been developed to address missing data in spatiotemporal datasets. However, these classical methods rely on the assumption that the underlying data follows a smooth trend and fail to provide accurate estimates when there is a large number of missing points in the data. Even though there are machine learning driven tensor completion approaches such as convolutional neural network based tensor completion (CoSTCo) that capture the non-linear relationships in the dataset, the transductive nature makes the algorithm less scalable. Thus, existing approaches for estimating the missing information do not effectively capture all dimensions of the spatiotemporal data structure, resulting in erroneous predictions and poor performance. The main contributions of this paper are: (1) We propose a novel inductive framework (G-LSTM) for missing data imputation that integrates a graph neural network with LSTMs to effectively capture both spatial and temporal dependencies. (2) Experimental results on a traffic dataset demonstrate that the proposed GNN integrated with an LSTM framework achieves improved imputation and maintains steady performance even when there are extreme missing conditions in comparison with the state-of-the-art imputation framework (i.e, CoSTCo). (3) The simulation results on a traffic network show up to 69% reduction in mean absolute error and 61% reduction in root mean square error when compared to CoSTCo.

Tharzeen, Aabila↗
DOE OSTI2022

A new multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential processes under process model and parametric uncertainty

Process-based models have been widely used for hydrologic modeling, and it is a common practice to use sensitivity analysis methods for excluding non-influential hydrologic processes from further investigation and/or model improvement. This study develops a new method called multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential system processes and parameters. MMADS is conceptually similar to the Morris method for addressing parametric uncertainty, but has a unique feature to address both process model uncertainty (i.e., a process may be represented by multiple process models) and process model parameter uncertainty (i.e., parameters associated with a process model are random). MMADS first evaluates absolute differences of a quantity of interest (i.e., a system model output) by varying process models and/or process model parameter values, and then calculates the mean and variance of the differences for investigating process influence. The mean measures overall influence of the process on the quantity of interest, and the variance estimates influence of nonlinear effects of the process and/or its interactions with other processes. MMADS is an extension of the Morris method from a parameter space to a joint parameter-model space for explicitly addressing both process model uncertainty and model parameter uncertainty. The performance of MMADS is evaluated by using two numerical experiments. One experiment is based on Sobol’s G*-function with ten product elements, and has analytical solutions of the MMADS mean and variance of absolute differences. The other experiment is for groundwater flow modeling which considers three processes (i.e., recharge, geology, and snowmelt) that interact with each other. Finally, results indicate that MMADS is computationally efficient and can identify non-influential processes of complex hydrological systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-Entropy Ceramic Coatings: Transformative New Materials for Environmentally-Compatible Thin-Film Insulators against High-T Molten Salts

An emerging new class of promising materials, High-Entropy Ceramics (HECs) or Compositionally-Complex Ceramics (CCCs), have been successfully fabricated in the last three years. This project evaluates HECs/CCCs in the concentrated solar power (CSP) context. In this project, we have identified a couple of simple, and key descriptors governing thermal conductivity in HECs. Size disorder among the cations was found to have a strong influence on the thermal conductivity across multiple systems and throughout a vast compositional space. Since identifying this, we have optimized previous compositions to achieve low thermal conductivities of $k$~$1-1.4Wm{-1}K{-1}$. We have further reduced our selection of promising compositions based on project guidelines and applied a theory that can potentially predict reactivity with molten salts to identify a small set of HECs that are suitable for further molten salt heat transfer media (HTM) stability testing. Many compositions reveal poor resistance to molten chloride salt after being exposed for 24 h compared to the reference structural alloy, Haynes 230. However, after 100 h, a few HECs/CCCs show strong parabolic rate constant effects and provide greater resistance to chloride salt compared to Haynes 230 alloy, which shows more linear kinetics. Postmortem characterization of the microstructure reveals the parabolic rate constant originates from a dense reaction layer form at the interface. This feature is absent in Haynes 230, which only shows grain boundary infiltration. The HECs/CCCs were also put in contact with the metal alloy under Ar for 800 h at 800°C and show negligible interaction. Lastly, parabolic rate constant HECs/CCCs also have low thermal conductivity $(<2 Wm^{-1} K^{-1})$ at 800°C. These specimens satisfy all project requirements and demonstrate their promising application in next-generation CSP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drivers of Decadal Carbon Fluxes Across Temperate Ecosystems

Long-running eddy covariance flux towers provide insights into how the terrestrial carbon cycle operates over multiple timescales. Here, we evaluated variation in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) across the Chequamegon Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study AmeriFlux core site cluster in the upper Great Lakes region of the USA from 1997 to 2020. The tower network included two mature hardwood forests with differing management regimes (US-WCr and US-Syv), two fen wetlands with varying levels of canopy sheltering and vegetation (US-Los and US-ALQ), and a very tall (400 m) landscape-level tower (US-PFa). Together, they provided over 70 site-years of observations. The 19-tower Chequamegon Heterogenous Ecosystem Energy-balance Study Enabled by a High-density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 campaign centered around US-PFa provided additional information on the spatial variation of NEE. Decadal variability was present in all long-term sites, but cross-site coherence in interannual NEE in the earlier part of the record became weaker with time as non-climatic factors such as local disturbances likely dominated flux time series. Average decadal NEE at the tall tower transitioned from carbon source to sink to near neutral over 24 years. Respiration had a greater effect than photosynthesis on driving variations in NEE at all sites. Declining snowfall offset potential increases in assimilation from warmer springs, as less-insulated soils delayed start of spring green-up. Higher CO 2 increased maximum net assimilation parameters but not total gross primary productivity. Stand-scale sites were larger net sinks than the landscape tower. Clustered, long-term carbon flux observations provide value for understanding the diverse links between carbon and climate and the challenges of upscaling these responses across space.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulation-aided occupant-centric building design: A critical review of tools, methods, and applications

Occupants are active participants in their built environment, affecting its performance while simultaneously being affected by its design and indoor environmental conditions. With recent advances in computer modeling, simulation tools, and analysis techniques, topics such as human-building interactions and occupant behavior have gained significant interest in the literature given their premise of improving building design processes and operating strategies. In practice, the focus of occupant-centric literature has been mostly geared towards the latter (i.e., operation), leaving the implications on building design practices underexplored. This paper fills the gap by providing a critical review of existing studies applying computer-based modeling and simulation to guide occupant-centric building design. The reviewed papers are organized along four main themes, namely occupant-centric: (i) metrics of building performance, (ii) modeling and simulation approaches, (iii) design methods and applications, and (iv) supporting practices and mechanisms. Important barriers are identified for a more effective application of occupant-centric building design practices, including the limited consideration of metrics beyond energy efficiency (e.g., occupant well-being and space planning), the limited implementation and validation of the proposed methods, and the lack of integration of occupant behavior modeling in existing building performance simulation tools. Finally, future research directions are discussed, covering large-scale international data collection efforts to move from generic assumptions about occupant behavior to specific/localized knowledge, improved metrics of measuring building performance, and improved industry practices, such as building codes, to promote an occupant-in-the-loop approach to the building design process.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constructing a spatiotemporally coherent long-term PM2.5 concentration dataset over China during 1980–2019 using a machine learning approach

The lack of long-term observations and satellite retrievals of health-damaging fine particulate matter in China has demanded the estimates of historical PM 2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter) concentrations. This study constructs a gridded near-surface PM 2.5 concentration dataset across China covering 1980–2019 using the space-time random forest model with atmospheric visibility observations and other auxiliary data. The modeled daily PM2.5 concentrations are in excellent agreement with ground measurements during 2015–2019, with a coefficient of determination of 0.95 and mean relative error of 12%. Besides the atmospheric visibility which explains 30% of total importance of variables in the model, both emissions and meteorological conditions are also essential factors affecting PM2.5 predictions. From 1980 to 2014, the model-predicted PM2.5 concentrations increased constantly with the maximum growth rate of 5–10 µg/m3/decade over eastern China. Due to the clean air actions, PM 2.5 concentrations have decreased effectively at a rate over 50 µg/m 3 /decade in the North China Plain and 20–50 µg/m 3 /decade over eastern China during 2014–2019. The newly generated dataset of 1-degree gridded PM 2.5 concentrations for the past 40 years across China provides a useful means for investigating interannual and decadal environmental and climate impacts related to aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust and tunable oxide nanoscrolls for solar-driven H 2 generation and storage

Hydrogen gas is a promising alternative to fossil fuels due to its high energy output and environmentally safe byproducts. Various morphologies of photocatalytic materials have been explored for high-efficiency H 2 production, for instance, quasi-1D nanoscroll structures that provide a larger surface-to-volume ratio. Recently, we predicted layer-by-layer formation of stable oxide nanoscrolls directly from dichalcogenide precursors, eliminating the need for costly formation of two-dimensional oxides for a roll-up synthesis of nanoscrolls. Here, in this study, we evaluate the suitability of those oxide nanoscroll materials—MoO 3 , WO 3 , PdO 2 , HfO 2 , and GeO 2 —for solar-driven photocatalytic H 2 production and storage. Using excited state theory coupled with Bethe–Salpeter equation simulations, we discern their electronic and optical properties as a function of interlayer scroll spacing and find them to be highly conducive for solar-driven photocatalysis. Additionally, using ab initio molecular dynamics simulations, we show that they are also suitable for H 2 storage as the nanoscrolls exhibit an effective trapping of hydrogen, even in the presence of defects and vacancies in the oxides. This work thus demonstrates the discovery of robust and tunable oxide nanoscrolls as materials for advancing solar-driven hydrogen technologies.

Chemical compounds↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining effects of aerosol-cloud interaction by accounting for coupling between cloud and land surface

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) are vital for regulating Earth’s climate by influencing energy and water cycles. Yet, effects of ACI bear large uncertainties, evidenced by systematic discrepancies between observed and modeled estimates. This study quantifies a major bias in ACI determinations, stemming from conventional surface or space measurements that fail to capture aerosol at the cloud level unless the cloud is coupled with land surface. We introduce an advanced approach to determine radiative forcing of ACI by accounting for cloud-surface coupling. By integrating field observations, satellite data, and model simulations, this approach reveals a drastic alteration in aerosol vertical transport and ACI effects caused by cloud coupling. In coupled regimes, aerosols enhance cloud droplet number concentration across the boundary layer more homogeneously than in decoupled conditions, under which aerosols from the free atmosphere predominantly affect cloud properties, leading to marked cooling effects. Our findings spotlight cloud-surface coupling as a key factor for ACI quantification, hinting at potential underassessments in traditional estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Volume Change from Solidification Correlation for Hanford Tank Waste.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Hanford Field Office’s primary mission is to safely and effectively treat Hanford’s tank waste and deliver environmental remediation. Mixed radioactive waste is stored in the underground tanks at the Hanford Site. It was recently estimated that retrieval of the waste in the 200 West Area underground tanks in the SY, S, SX, and U Tank Farms will result in about 41 million gallons of mixed low-level waste (MLLW) (RPP-RPT-65147, Rev. 1). The current plan is to retrieve at least 22 S, SX, and U Farm tanks and pretreat1 to produce pretreated tank waste (PTW) which will be further treated (including solidification /immobilization) for Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Land Disposal Restriction (LDR) organics and inorganics before being transferred to an offsite out-of-state facility for disposal (RPP-PLAN-66135, Rev. 2). In addition, solidified PTW from the 200 East Area may also be transferred to an offsite out-of-state facility for disposal to ensure availability of critical Double-Shell Tank space, meet retrieval obligations, and optimize 200 East Area operations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Land change, fire, and climate weaken carbon sink in the conterminous United States

The land carbon sink of the conterminous United States was evaluated using a bottom-up modeling framework and 30-meter land change data from 1985 to 2020. This cross-scale, cross-landscape, and cross-system approach tracked fractional land cover changes and applied regional model calibration. Results show average terrestrial and aquatic carbon sinks of +110 ± 37 and +19 ± 0.5 teragrams of carbon per year, respectively. The terrestrial carbon sink, showing no clear trend, peaked in the 1990s, with more years as a carbon source since 2000, contradicting recent national and global studies. Land change had the largest impact (−70 ± 5.5 teragrams of carbon per year), exceeding impacts of climate (−33 ± 48 teragrams of carbon per year), wildfire (−7.7 ± 2.4 teragrams of carbon per year), and erosion transport (−1.9 ± 0.13 teragrams of carbon per year). The positive CO 2 fertilization effect (+69 ± 12 teragrams of carbon per year) was insufficient to maintain the carbon sink strength. Our framework reveals key paths of carbon loss, with implications for carbon budget and energy policies in the United States and beyond.

Liu, Jinxun [US Geological Survey, Reston, VA (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2023

Resolved Gravity Waves in the Extratropical Stratosphere: Effect of Horizontal Resolution Increase from O (10) to O (1) km

Global ECMWF IFS simulations with horizontal grid spacings of 1, 4, and 9 km are used to assess gravity wave forcing (GWF) in the extratropical stratosphere. Results with important implications for GWF parameterizations at high and intermediate resolutions are presented. A doubling in the zonal-mean resolved GWF is observed when the horizontal resolution is increased from 9 to 1 km. Small-scale gravity waves with horizontal wavelengths < 100 km dominate this increase. Over most regions, excluding the polar night jet in the Antarctic spring, the total (resolved + parameterized) GWF at 9 km (4 km) is underestimated by up to 30% (15%). This implies that the parameterization of GWF is still required at 9 and 4 km horizontal resolutions. Despite the small land area in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the resolved orographic and nonorographic GWF contribute equally to the total GWF in the SH at 1 km resolution. This is not reflected in the partitioning of the parameterized GWF, which has a significantly larger nonorographic contribution at 9 km. As a result, a zonal-mean momentum budget analysis reveals that the total GWF contributes one-third of SH springtime polar vortex deceleration at 1 km, whereas the contribution is as much as 50% at 9 km. In conclusion, this suggests that a rebalancing of the parameterized nonorographic and orographic GWF is required.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A systematic review of building energy sufficiency towards energy and climate targets

Among the sufficiency, efficiency, and renewable frameworks for reducing energy use and energy-related carbon emissions, Building Energy Sufficiency (BES) is gaining attention from policy makers and engineers. Despite the significant role of the building sector in the success of national energy and climate plans, there is a lack of research on the drivers, technologies, and effective policy instruments required to achieve BES in the building operational phase. To fill this gap, this study presents a systematic review of the definition and paradigm of BES and concludes that BES should address both occupant demand and energy or emissions requirements simultaneously. The characteristics of occupant demand in building services are divided into four dimensions: time and space, quality and quantity, control and adjustment, and flexibility. Technical options regarding the building architecture, the envelope system, and the building energy system are reviewed. Finally, policy implications and recommendations are discussed. As a result, the multiple benefits and multidisciplinary nature of BES justify further research and accelerated policy implementation in developed and developing countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direction of impact for explainable risk assessment modeling

Abstract Several graphical indicators have been recently introduced to help analysts visualize the marginal effects of inputs in complex models. The insights derived from such tools may help decision‐makers and risk analysts in designing interventions. However, we know little about the adequacy and consistency of different indicators. This work investigates popular marginal effect indicators to understand whether they yield indications consistent with the properties of the quantitative model under inspection. Specifically, we examine the notions of monotonicity, Lipschitz, and concavity consistency. Surprisingly, only PD functions satisfy all these notions of consistency. However, when selecting the indicators, in addition to consistency, analysts need to consider the risk of model extrapolation. For situations where such risk is under control, we utilize individual conditional expectations together with PD plots. Two applications, on a NASA space risk assessment model and a susceptible exposed infected recovered (SEIR) model for the COVID‐19 pandemic illustrate the insights obtained from these indicators.

Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗