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At least 163 records · Page 9

A Regional Model Study of Synoptic Features Over West Africa

Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWR initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation "forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days. Results imply that information via the lateral boundary conditions is not always sufficient to minimize departures between simulated and actual precipitation patterns for more than several days. In addition, there was some evidence that the new initialization may increase the simulations' sensitivity to the quality of lateral boundary conditions.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

Correlation of Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Polarization and Charge Transport in Blended Hybrid Organic–Inorganic Perovskites on Macro- and Nanoscales

Progress in flexible organic electronics necessitates a full understanding of how local inhomogeneities impact electronic and ionic conduction pathways and underlie macroscopic device characteristics. In this work, we used frequency- and time-resolved macro- and nanoprobe measurements to study spatiotemporal characteristics of multiscale charge transport dynamics in a series of ternary-blended hybrid organic inorganic perovskites (HOIPs) (MA 0.95– x FA x Cs 0.05 PbI 3 ). We show that A-site cation composition defines charge transport mechanisms across broad temporal (10 2 –10 –6 s) and spatial (millimeters–picometers) scales. Ab initio molecular dynamic simulations suggest that insertion of FA results in a dynamic lattice, improved ion transport, and dipole screening. We demonstrate that correlations between macro- and nanoscale measurements provide a pathway for accessing distribution of relaxation in nanoscale polarization and charge transport dynamics of ionically conductive functional perovskites.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Lightwave terahertz quantum manipulation of nonequilibrium superconductor phases and their collective modes

In this work, we present a gauge-invariant density matrix description of nonequilibrium superconductor (SC) states with spatial and temporal correlations driven by intense terahertz (THz) lightwaves. We derive superconductor Bloch-Maxwell equations of motion that extend Anderson pseudospin models to include the Cooper pair center-of-mass motion and electromagnetic propagation effects. We thus describe quantum control of dynamical phases, collective modes, quasiparticle coherence, and high nonlinearities during cycles of carrier wave oscillations, which relates to our recent experiments. Coherent photogeneration of a nonlinear supercurrent with a dc component, achieved via condensate acceleration by an effective lightwave field, dynamically breaks the equilibrium inversion symmetry. Experimental signatures include high harmonic light emission at equilibrium-symmetry-forbidden frequencies, Rabi-Higgs collective modes and quasiparticle coherence, and nonequilibrium moving condensate states tuned by few-cycle THz fields. We use such lightwaves as an oscillating accelerating force that drives strong nonlinearities and anisotropic quasiparticle populations to control and amplify different classes of collective modes, e.g., damped oscillations, persistent oscillations, and overdamped dynamics via Rabi flopping. Recent phase-coherent nonlinear spectroscopy experiments can be modeled by solving the full nonlinear quantum dynamics including self-consistent light-matter coupling.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A Spatially Coherent Global Soil Moisture Product with Improved Temporal Resolution

Global soil moisture products that are completely independent of any type of ancillary data and solely rely on satellite observations are presented. Additionally, we further develop an existing downscaling technique that enhances the spatial resolution of such products to approximately 11 km. These products are based on internal modules of the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), an algorithm that uses the radiative transfer equation to link soil moisture, vegetation optical depth and land surface temperature to observed brightness temperatures. The soil moisture product that is independent of any type of ancillary data uses the internally calculated dielectric constant as a soil moisture proxy. This data product is not influenced by errors associated with coarse-scale global soil property maps or by any other type of forcing (e.g. re-analysis) data and is therefore solely based on satellite microwave observations. The second step builds upon recent developments to increase the spatial resolution of the LPRM retrievals using a smoothing filter downscaling method. With this method we can attain a spatial resolution that can be more useful at the scale of local and regional hydrological studies as well. The steps presented in this paper were applied to observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). The newly derived data sets were validated using ground-based observations from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN). The internally calculated dielectric constant product results in significantly more days with valid retrievals than the original soil moisture data products, in particular over arid regions. The dielectric constant product resulted in similar correlations with in situ data as the original soil moisture data product. Together, these findings demonstrate the usefulness of this new dielectric constant product for the hydrological modeling community and climate studies. A case study on the Australian Fitzroy catchment demonstrated that the downscaled data product has a more detailed spatial description of soil moisture, especially during wet and dry conditions with more pronounced dry and wet regions within the catchment. The increased resolution data products could therefore improve runoff predictions and this study demonstrated the potential added value of a transitioning from a spatial resolution of 56 km toward a higher resolution of 11 km. The hydrological implications of these newly developed data records are not only linked to AMSR-E satellite data, but also to the next generation Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) mission where a 9 km spatial resolution is the target resolution for satellite soil moisture products. The new data products will not replace the current LPRM products, but will be added to the existing array of data products and will become publicly available through our data portals.

spatial↗

Comment on "'Elevated Heat Pump' Hypothesis for the Aerosol-Monsoon Hydroclimate Link: 'Grounded' in Observations?" by S. Nigam and M. Bollasina

In their recent paper, Nigam and Bollasina [2010] (hereinafter NB) claimed to have found observational evidences that are at variance with the elevated heat pump (EHP) hypothesis regarding the possible impacts of absorbing aerosols on the South Asian summer monsoon [Lau et al., 2006; Lau and Kim, 2006]. We found NB's arguments and inferences against the EHP hypothesis flawed, stemming from their own out of context interpretation of the hypothesis. NB argued that the simultaneous negative correlation of aerosol with rainfall, and correlations with other quantities in May, are evidence against the EHP hypothesis. Their argument cannot be justified. First, Lau and Kim [2006] (hereinafter LK06) never stated that the main rainfall response to EHP is in May. Second, the EHP is about responses of the entire Indian monsoon system that are nonlocal in space and time with respect to the aerosol forcing. As shown in Figure 4 of LK06, while the aerosol anomalies are strongest in April-May, the strongest rainfall response is in June-July, with the enhanced rainfall fed by an induced thermally driven circulation which brings additional moisture from the ocean to the Indian subcontinent. Third, the increased rainfall over the Bay of Bengal as shown in Figure 1a of NB and the increased low-level convergence in Figure 1f of NB do not necessarily reflect responses associated with EHP but rather the large ]scale circulation that provides the buildup of the aerosols before the onset of the monsoon rainfall over India. Because aerosol can only accumulate where there is little or no washout by rain, the negative correlation is a necessary condition for increased atmospheric loading of aerosols. For the same reason, the spatial distributions of rainfall and aerosol generally are offset with each other, i.e., high aerosol in regions of low rainfall. This is evident in Figure 1, which shows the climatological mean of the MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD), and TRMM rainfall over India in May. The maximum AOD is found over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and the desert regions of northwest India and Pakistan

Lau, K. M.↗

Deconstructing the Local Intermolecular Ordering and Dynamics of Liquid Chloroform and Bromoform

Local intermolecular structure and dynamics of the polar molecular liquids chloroform and bromoform are studied by molecular dynamics simulation. Structural distribution functions, including 1- and 2-D pair correlations and dipole contour plots allow direct comparison and show agreement with recent analyses of diffraction experiments. Studies of the haloforms’ reorientational dynamics and longevity of structural features resulting from intermolecular interaction extend previous work toward deeper understanding of the factors controlling these features. Analyses of ensemble average structures and dynamical properties isolate mass, electrostatics, and steric packing as driving forces or contributing factors for the observed ordering and dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Photoluminescence Dynamics Defined by Exciton Trapping Potential of Coupled Defect States in DNA-Functionalized Carbon Nanotubes

Chemical reactions between semiconducting single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) and single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) achieve spatially patterned covalent functionalization sites and create coupled fluorescent quantum defects on the nanotube surface, tailoring SWCNT photophysics for applications such as single-photon emitters in quantum information technologies. The evaluation of relaxation dynamics of photoluminescence (PL) from those coupled quantum defects is essential for understanding the nanotube electronic structure and beneficial to the design of quantum light emitters. Here, we measured the PL decay for ssDNA-functionalized SWCNTs as a function of the guanine content of the ssDNA oligo that dictates the red-shifting of their PL emission peaks relative to the band-edge exciton. We then correlate the observed dependence of PL decay dynamics on energy red-shifts to the exciton potential energy landscape, which is modeled using first-principles approaches based upon the morphology of ssDNA-altered SWCNTs obtained by atomic force microscopy (AFM) imaging. In this work, our simulations illustrate that the multiple guanine defects introduced within a single ssDNA strand strongly interact to create a deep exciton trapping well, acting as a single hybrid trap. The emission decay from the distinctive trapping potential landscape is found to be biexponential for ssDNA-modified SWCNTs. We attributed the fast time component of the biexponential PL decay to the redistribution of exciton population among the lowest energy bright states and a manifold of dark states emerging from the coupling of multiple guanine defects. The long lifetime component in the biexponential decay, on the other hand, is attributed to the redistribution of exciton population among different exciton trapping sites that arise from the binding of multiple ssDNA strands along the nanotube axis. AFM measurements indicate that those trapping sites are separated on average by ~8 nm along the nanotube axis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Photochemical ozone overburden correction

One-half of the total ozone column is predominantly under photochemical control under all conditions except polar winter. The other half is dynamically controlled. Since the photochemical forcing is phased with the solar declination and modulated by air temperature variation in the upper stratosphere and the dynamic forcing is tied to wave activity in the upper troposphere, the total ozone column is a mixture of the two drivers. If the total ozone is used to infer a property of the dynamic field, namely the tropopause height, it is necessary to correct for the photochemical variations. It should be possible to remove the photochemical component of the total ozone by using SBUV profile information along the orbital track as long as the spatial variations are low frequency. The column integral above the Umkehr levels in the lower stratosphere are examined to determine the level where the spatial variability decreases to the expected photochemical range to find an approximate dividing line between photochemical and dynamic control. Given this a spherical harmonic function will be fitted to the ozone field and subtracted from the TOMS total ozone field. This residual field will then be correlated with tropopause height to determine whether an improvement is obtained over the total ozone correlation.

Stefanick, Michael↗

A study of the influence of satellite data on GLA analyses over the Atlantic Ocean during a period of blocking anticyclone development

This paper presents a statistical diagnosis of the differences between two Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres analysis representations of temperature and wind speed, one containing satellite data influences (SAT analyses) and one without (NOSAT analyses), for a case of oceanic blocking anticyclone development. Results, obtained using area means and standard deviations of the two fields and correlation coefficients and root-mean-square differences between the two fields, indicate that the inclusion of satellite data can have significant impact on ocean-domain analyses. This is especially evident if one examines higher-order fields that represent gradients in the basic variable fields or contain covariances between two different variables (e.g., advections). More specifically, the inclusion of satellite data resulted in a cold (warm) temperature bias at low (high) levels and weaker temperature gradients, stronger winds, weaker vertical wind shears, and a warm-air advection bias at most levels. The SAT analyses also exhibited larger standard deviations than the NOSAT for wind speed, relative vorticity, vorticity advection, temperature advection, and 500-mb height tendencies, suggesting that for this case the spatial variability of the circulation features were enhanced by the inclusion of satellite data. Even so, since height tendencies forced by vorticity and temperature advection were less sensitive to the addition of satellite data than were the advection quantities themselves, the dynamics of the blocking system was apparently less influenced by the presence of satellite data than was the structure of the system.

Lamberty, Gregory L.↗

Interannual Variability of Seasonal Pblooms in the North Polar Atlantic in Response to Atmospheric Forcing

The year-to-year variability of timing, intensity, and spatial distribution of surface phytoplankton during spring-summer seasons is examined in the north polar region of the Atlantic using satellite-derived chlorophyll a concentration (Chl) over 7 years (1998 2004). Each year phytoplankton bloom differed in onset, temporal evolution, and intensity. This interannual variability is to a large degree controlled by local weather, as indicated by the analysis of coincident meteorological data. The atmospheric forcing was parameterized in terms of the generation rate of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE(sub RT)) supplied from the atmosphere to the ocean. Timing of the bloom is delayed in years with high TKE(sub RT) supplied to the ocean in March. In April, Chl (local and regionally averaged) and TKE(sub RT) are inversely related to one another. The late winter and early spring atmospheric conditions influence the seasonal Chl patterns. The seasonal (April-August) Chl correlates well with net heat flux, wind energy, and TKE(sub RT) in March and April, but the correlation can be negative or positive in different areas of the north polar Atlantic. The correlation between TKE(sub RT) and seasonal Chl is positive in the Greenland Gyre (higher seasonal Chl corresponds to higher TKE(sub RT) in March April) and negative in the regions of East Greenland and North Atlantic/West Spitsbergen Currents. The most likely explanation for the positive correlation between TKE(sub RT) and Chl within the Greenland Gyre is that higher TKE(sub RT) in spring increases the seasonal supply of nutrients into surface waters.

Stramska, Malgorzata↗

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Particulate and Dissolved Organic Matter in the Mississippi River Bight From Optical Measurements

The Mississippi River Bight is a highly dynamic region influenced by the seasonally variable outflow from the Mississippi River. In an effort to characterize the distribution of particulate and dissolved organic matter in the region, we conducted a two-year field program in the spring and fall (high and low flow river discharge) of 2000 and 2002. We collected a comprehensive set of bio-optical measurements consisting of vertical profiles (absorption, scattering, chlorophyll fluorescence and radiometry) and discrete measurements (pigment concentrations, particulate and CDOM absorption) that enabled us to obtain better insight into the seasonal and spatial variability of some important biogeochemical parameters. Our field measurements generally showed higher phytoplankton clorophyll concentrations in the plume waters (associated with lower surface salinities) and confirmed the high biological activity abserved in other studies. The seasonal flow of river discharge and advective currents due to wind forcing exerted a strong influence on the biological and optical properties of the region. An examination of absorption at 440 nm by the algal and non-algal fraction of the particulate pool and of CDOM revealed that at nearshore stations, contributions by the non-algal particles were high (about 40%) and decresed with increasing salinities. While CDOM absorption exhibited conservative mixing, its relative contribution to the total absorption was variable. Surface waters at most stations had lower salinities that generalliy increased with dept. Particulate matter and CDOM also decreased with depth as evidenced by absorption and scattering measurements. Good correlations in surface waters between concentrations of particulate and dissolved matter, the inherent optical properties of absorption and ackscattering and remote sensing reflectance values has allowed the development of robust empirical algorithms for phytoplankton chlorophyll and CDOM absorption.

DSa, E. J.↗

Sensitivity of Lower Stratospheric Assimilated Ozone on Error Covariance Modeling and Data Selection

Assimilated ozone is produced at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office by blending ozone retrieved from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) measurements into an off-line transport model. The current system tends to overestimate the amount of lower stratospheric ozone. This is a region where ozone plays a key role in the forcing of climate. A biased ozone field in this region will adversely impact calculations of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange and, when used as a first guess in retrievals, the values determined from satellite observations. Since these are all important applications of assimilated ozone products, effort is being directed towards reducing this bias. The SBUV ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone in the lower stratosphere, and its vertical distribution in particular, are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. Accordingly, the sensitivity of the assimilated lower stratospheric ozone fields to changes in the TOMS error-covariance modeling and the SBUV data selection has been investigated. The use of a spatially correlated TOMS error covariance model led to improvements in the product. However, withholding the SBUV/2 data for the layer between 63 and 126 hPa typically degraded the product, a result which vindicates the use of this layer ozone product, despite its known errors. These efforts to improve the lower stratospheric distribution will be extended to include a more advanced forecast error covariance model, and by assimilating ozone products from new instruments on Envisat and EOS Aura.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

In Situ Chemical Monitoring and Imaging of Contents within Microfluidic Devices Having a Porous Membrane Wall Using Liquid Microjunction Surface Sampling Probe Mass Spectrometry

The ability to observe dynamic chemical processes (e.g., signaling, transport, etc.) in vivo or in situ using nondestructive chemical imaging opens a new door to understanding the complex dynamics of developing biological systems. With the advent of “biology-on-a-chip” devices has come the ability to monitor dynamic chemical processes in a controlled environment, using these engineered habitats to capture key features of natural systems while allowing visual observation of system development. Having the capability to spatially and temporally map the chemical signals within these devices may yield new insights into the forces that drive biosystem development. Here, a porous membrane sealed microfluidic device was designed to allow normal microfluidic operation while enabling continuous, location specific sampling and chemical characterization by liquid microjunction surface sampling probe mass spectrometry (LMJ-SSP MS). LMJ-SSP was used to extract fluids with nL-to-μL/min flow rates directly from selected areas of the microfluidic device without negatively impacting the device function. These extracts were subsequently characterized using MS. This technique was used to acquire MS images of the entirety of several multi-input microfluidic devices having different degrees of fluid mixing. LMJ-SSP MS imaging visualized the spatial distribution of chemical components within the microfluidic channels and could visualize chemical reactions occurring in the device. These microfluidic devices with a porous membrane wall are wholly compatible with the construction of biology-on-a-chip devices. This ultimately would enable correlation of biosystem physical structure with an evolving chemical environment

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Dynamics of Electric Polarization and Relaxation of Ions at Humid Calcite Surfaces

Mobile ions at mineral surfaces can respond to an applied electric field, adopting a new distribution that effectively represents polarization of the electrical double layer. When the field is released, the ions relax to their equilibrium distribution. In both cases, the dynamics are characteristic of the interface. However, current models of electrokinetic phenomena are not sufficiently robust to accurately predict collective ion dynamics at structurally and chemically specific mineral–water interfaces. Here, in this study, we use electrostatic force microscopy (EFM) to investigate the dynamics of ion relaxation at hydrated calcite (104) surfaces at controlled relative humidity (RH). Electrically biased probes are used to polarize the distributions of calcium and carbonate ions that are intrinsic to this interface across a range of RH values. Polarization kinetics are tracked by monitoring the tip–sample force gradient during charging, and EFM imaging is used to characterize the spatial relaxation dynamics after the applied field is released. Electrostatic finite element modeling of the sample/probe system across length-scales from nanometers to millimeters reproduces the observed stretched exponential charging response. Together, these results allow us to estimate the ion diffusivities at the interface across a wide range of RH values. These diffusivities increase by roughly 5 orders of magnitude as the RH is increased from 5 to 90%, highlighting the critical role of adsorbed water for surface ion solvation that enables ion mobility.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Scale-dependent spatial variabilities of hydrological exchange flows and transit time in a large regulated river

Hydrological exchange flows (HEF) across the river-aquifer interface and the associated residence time of river water in the aquifer have important implications for contaminant plume migration and biogeochemical processes in the river corridor. HEFs and residence time are influenced by both subsurface physical features and hydrologic forcing related to the transport process, which can exhibit complex spatial and temporal variations. In this study, we used a massively parallel subsurface flow model and a particle-tracking model to study the influences of different control factors on spatial variability of HEFs and residence time distributions (RTD) in the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River in Washington State. A total number of 100M particles were randomly injected in time and space and then tracked in a model domain that covers a 51-km 2 area (15.1M model cells). We used hourly river stages and groundwater levels to drive the model to provide dynamic velocity fields for the particle tracking in the simulation period that was longer than 2 years. The groundwater flow simulation and particle-tracking results provide the first comprehensive assessment of the spatial distribution of HEFs and residence time in large complex river corridors. Overall, our results show that the aquifer hydrogeological structure has the strongest correlation with the extent and magnitude of exchange flux. The residence time exhibits complex patterns that are impacted by all the river geomorphologic, hydrodynamic, and hydrogeologic factors and are strongly correlated with the downwelling ratio of exchange flux. The new insights gained through this study can be used to support the development of reduced-order models of HEFs and RTDs for large complex river systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regression Bias in using Solar Wind Measurements

Simultaneous solar wind measurements from the solar wind monitors, WIND and ACE, differ due to the spatial and temporal structure of the solar wind. Correlation studies that use these measurements as input may infer an incorrect correlation due to uncertainties arising from this spatial and temporal structure, especially at extreme and rare solar wind values. In particular, regression analysis will lead to a regression function whose slope is biased towards the mean value of the measurement parameter. This article demonstrates this regression bias by comparing simultaneous ACE and WIND solar wind measurements. A non-linear regression analysis between them leads to a perception of underestimation of extreme values of one measurement on average over the other. Using numerical experiments, we show that popular regression analysis techniques such as linear least-squares, orthogonal least-squares, and non-linear regression are not immune to this bias. Hence while using solar wind parameters as an independent variable in a correlation or regression analysis, random uncertainty in the independent variable can create unintended biases in the response of the dependent variable. More generally, the regression to the mean effect can impact both event-based, statistical studies of magnetospheric response to solar wind forcing.

magnetosphere↗

Edge States Drive Exciton Dissociation in Ruddlesden–Popper Lead Halide Perovskite Thin Films

Efficient photovoltaic cells based on thin films of solution-processed 2D Ruddlesden–Popper hybrid perovskites (RPPs) represent an exciting breakthrough due to their enhanced tunability and chemical stability relative to those fabricated from 3D phases. However, reports of efficient charge separation and current collection are in apparent contradiction with the well-known enhancement of the exciton binding energy in multilayered halide perovskites, which should lower the device’s internal quantum efficiency and voltage. This controversy has led to various proposals for the electronic and physical structure of RPP thin films, including phase inhomogeneity as the driving force for exciton dissociation and transport. We address this apparent paradox in high-quality hot-cast RPP films by correlating ultrafast transient absorption spectroscopy with X-ray scattering measurements. We show that a hot-casting fabrication method produces highly phase pure n = 3 (BA) 2 (MA) n-1 Pb n I 3n+1 RPP structures. The high-phase purity and large grain sizes allow us to observe vertical transport of excitons via a diffusive process and allow us to determine that charge separation is primarily driven by dissociation at surface localized subgap electronic states. Furthermore, we analyze the differential absorption kinetics in films of varying thickness to directly determine that the excitonic diffusion constant is ~0.18 cm 2 s –1 . We propose that a surface localized structural distortion, observed using surface selective grazing incidence X-ray scattering measurements, is responsible for the creation of the surface localized defect states. We find that the density and spatial distribution of these defect states is a function of preparation conditions.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

Tropical Cyclones↗