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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

A GeoNEX-Based High-Spatiotemporal-Resolution Product of Land Surface Downward Shortwave Radiation and Photosynthetically Active Radiation

Surface downward shortwave radiation (DSR) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) play critical roles in the Earth’s surface processes. As the main inputs of various ecological, hydrological, carbon, and solar photovoltaic models, increasing requirements for high-spatiotemporal-resolution DSR and PAR es- timation with high accuracy have been observed in recent years. However, few existing products satisfy all of these requirements. This study employed a well-established physical-based lookup table (LUT) approach to the GeoNEX gridded top-of-atmosphere bidirectional reflectance factor data acquired by the Advanced Hi- mawari Imager (AHI) and Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) sensors. It produced a data product of DSR and PAR over both AHI and ABI coverage at an hourly temporal step with a 1 km spatial resolution. GeoNEX DSR data were validated over 63 stations, and GeoNEX PAR data were validated over 27 stations. The vali- dation showed that the new GeoNEX DSR and PAR products have accuracy higher than other existing prod- ucts, with root mean square error (RMSE) of hourly GeoNEX DSR achieving 74.3Wm−2 (18.0%), daily DSR estimation achieving 18.0 W m−2 (9.2 %), hourly GeoNEX PAR achieving 34.9 W m−2 (19.6 %), and daily PAR achieving 9.5 W m−2 (10.5 %). The study also demonstrated the application of the high-spatiotemporal- resolution GeoNEX DSR product in investigating the spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of surface solar radiation. The data product can be freely accessed through the NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division GeoNEX data portal: https://data.nas.nasa.gov/geonex/geonexdata/GOES16/GEONEX-L2/DSR-PAR/ (last ac- cess: 12 March 2023) and https://data.nas.nasa.gov/geonex/geonexdata/HIMAWARI8/GEONEX-L2/DSR-PAR/ (last access: 12 March 2023) (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7023863; Wang and Li, 2022).

Surface downward shortwave radiation (DSR)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Going With the Flow: Using a Particle Dispersion Model to Reveal Links Between Ocean Ecosystems and Marine Aerosols

Marine biogenic particle contributions to atmospheric aerosol concentrations are not well understood though they are important for determining cloud optical and cloud nucleating properties. Here we examine the relationship between marine aerosol measurements with satellite and model fields of ocean biology and meteorological variables during the North Atlantic Aerosols and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES). NAAMES consisted of four field campaigns between November 2015 and April 2018 that aligned with the four major phases of the annual phytoplankton bloom cycle. The FLEXPART Lagrangian particle dispersion model is used to connect these variables spatiotemporally to ship-based aerosol. We find that correlations between some aerosol measurements with satellite measured and modelled variables increase with increasing trajectory length. This indicates biological and meteorological processes over the air mass history are influential to measured particle properties. For example, results show organic aerosol mass is driven by biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from photosynthesis by phytoplankton stocks during advection into the region. In contrast, primary marine aerosol (PMA) concentrations showed better correlations to variables weighted with shorter air mass residence times, which reflects their localized origin as primary emissions. Evidence also suggest variability in PMA concentrations likely play an important role in VOC emission removal. The removal of VOCs lessen their impact on particle number and mass concentrations. The sensitivity of marine aerosols to the main ecosystem-atmosphere drivers and its dependence on air mass history are to be further discussed.

Kevin J Sanchez↗
NASA NTRS2020

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Association between AOD and PM over the California Central Valley

Many air pollution health effects studies rely on exposure estimates of particulate matter (PM) concentrations derived from remote sensing observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD). Simple but robust calibration models between AOD and PM are therefore important for generating reliable PM exposures. We conduct an in-depth examination of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the AOD-PM2.5 relationship by leveraging data from the Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Networks (DRAGON) field campaign where eight NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites were co-located with EPA Air Quality System (AQS) monitoring sites in California’s Central Valley from November 2012 to April 2013. With this spatiotemporally rich data we found that linear calibration models (R(exp 2) = 0.35, RMSE = 10.38 µg/cu.m) were significantly improved when spatial (R(exp 2) = 0.45, RMSE = 9.54 µg/cu.m), temporal (R(exp 2) = 0.62, RMSE = 8.30 µg/cu.m), and spatiotemporal (R(exp 2) = 0.65, RMSE = 7.58 µg/cu.m) functions were included. As a use-case we applied the best spatiotemporal model to convert space-borne MultiAngle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) AOD observations to predict PM2.5 over the region (R(exp 2) = 0.60, RMSE = 8.42 µg/cu.m). Our results imply that simple AERONET AOD-PM2.5 calibrations are robust and can be reliably applied to space-borne AOD observations, resulting in PM2.5 prediction surfaces for use in downstream applications.

Meytar Sorek-Hamer↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Hourly GHI, DHI and DNI: Intercomparison of the CERES-Based Data and the NSRDB Data through Comparison with the Ground-Based BSRN Data

The NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) SYN1deg(Ed4.1) provides hourly global horizontal irradiance (GHI), diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) and direct horizontal irradiance (DirHI) at 1-degree latitude by 1-degree longitude resolution, and the time span is from March 2000 to near present. While the GHI agrees well with the ground-based Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) data, the DHI and DirHI are, respectively, positively and negatively biased against the BSRN data, and so is the direct normal irradiance (DNI) derived simply by dividing the DirHI by the cosine of the hourly solar zenith angle (SZA). We found that the biases tend to be well-defined functions of cos(SZA) and the cloud fraction (CLFR). We thus performed a bias-correction on the hourly DHI and DNI in the latitude-cos(SZA)-CLFR phase space, and therefrom, we derived the hourly global tilted irradiance (GTI) at a number of tilt angles using the isotropic diffuse irradiance model, and the results agree well with the GTI derived from the original BSRN near-instantaneous records. Meanwhile, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has produced the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) with finer spatiotemporal resolution using its Physical Solar Model (PSM) and surface-based measured data, model results and satellite-based data as inputs. Now the NSRDB data covers not only the United States and its neighboring regions, but Europe, Africa, Asia and Oceania. The available temporal resolutions are 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and the spatial resolutions are 2, 4 and 10 km, depending on the selected region. In this presentation, we compare both the CERES-based and NSRDB GHI, DHI and DNI with their BSRN counterparts and show how finer spatial resolution may give us an advantage in data accuracy and usability.

Taiping Zhang↗
DOE OSTI2021

Leveraging observed soil heterotrophic respiration fluxes as a novel constraint on global-scale models

Microbially-explicit models may improve understanding and projections of carbon dynamics in response to future climate change, but their fidelity in simulating global-scale soil heterotrophic respiration (RH), a stringent test for soil biogeochemical models, has never been evaluated. We used statistical global RH products, as well as 7,821 daily site-scale RH measurements, to evaluate the spatio-temporal performance of one first-order decay model (CASA-CNP) and two microbially-explicit biogeochemical models (CORPSE and MIMICS) that were forced by two different climate datasets. CORPSE and MIMICS did not provide any measurable performance improvement; instead, the models were highly sensitive to the meteorological input data used to drive them. Spatial RH variability was generally well simulated except in the northern middle latitudes (~50°N) and arid regions; models captured the seasonal variability of RH well, but showed more divergence in tropic and arctic regions. Our results demonstrate that the next generation of biogeochemical models shows promise, but also needs to be improved for realistic spatio-temporal variability of RH. Finally, we emphasize the importance of net primary production, soil moisture, and soil temperature inputs, and that jointly evaluating soil models for their spatial (global scale) and temporal (site scale) performance provides crucial benchmarks for improving biogeochemical models.

Jian, Jinshi↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimates of Lake Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Chlorophyll‐ a Concentrations to Characterize Harmful Algal Bloom Risk Across the United States

Abstract Excess nutrient pollution contributes to the formation of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that compromise fisheries and recreation and that can directly endanger human and animal health via cyanotoxins. Efforts to quantify the occurrence, drivers, and severity of HABs across large areas is difficult due to the resource intensive nature of field monitoring of lake nutrient and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations. To better characterize how nutrients interact with other environmental factors to produce algal blooms in freshwater systems, we used spatially explicit and temporally matched climate, landscape, in‐lake characteristic, and nutrient inventory data sets to predict nutrients and chlorophyll‐aacross the conterminous US (CONUS). Using a nested modeling approach, three random forest (RF) models were trained to explain the spatiotemporal variation in total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations across US EPA's National Lakes Assessment (n = 2,062). Concentrations of TN and TP were the most important predictors and, with other variables, the RF model accounted for 68% of variation in chlorophyll‐a. We then used these RF models to extrapolate lake TN and TP predictions to lakes without nutrient observations and predict chlorophyll‐afor ∼112,000 lakes across the CONUS. Risk for high chlorophyll‐aconcentrations is highest in the agriculturally dominated Midwest, but other areas of risk emerge in nutrient pollution hot spots across the country. These catchment and lake‐specific results can help managers identify potential nutrient pollution and chlorophyll‐ahot spots that may fuel blooms, prioritize at‐risk lakes for additional monitoring, and optimize management to protect human health and other environmental end goals.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning for Subsurface Flow: A Comparative Study of U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators, and Transformers in Underground Hydrogen Storage

Subsurface flow research is essential for the sustainable management of natural resources and the environment. Deep learning (DL) has significantly advanced this field by developing efficient and accurate surrogate models to replace computationally expensive physics‐based simulations. These surrogate models are commonly used to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of state variables, such as gas saturation and reservoir pressure, in heterogeneous geological formations. Despite the various DL models applied to this task, there is a lack of studies systematically comparing their performance. This absence of comparative analysis leads to somewhat arbitrary DL model selection in subsurface flow research, resulting in suboptimal performance and potentially inaccurate predictions. To bridge this gap, we conduct a systematic comparison study of three popular DL architectures—U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and Segmentation Transformer (SETR)—in surrogate modeling of underground hydrogen storage (UHS). We focus on UHS due to its promise of enhancing clean energy resilience and its cyclic operational conditions that represent common scenarios in various subsurface applications. We evaluate the models based on accuracy, training cost, and inference speed. The comparison shows that U‐Net achieves the highest accuracy, followed by SETR and FNO. Despite its lower accuracy, FNO has the highest inference speed. SETR offers competitive accuracy with the least training memory usage, demonstrating the potential of transformers in learning subsurface flow. Our results provide guidance for selecting DL models for surrogate modeling in a wide range of subsurface flow problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Convective Momentum Transport and Its Impact on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in E3SM‐MMF

Abstract Convective momentum transport (CMT) is the process of vertical redistribution of horizontal momentum by small‐scale turbulent flows from moist convection. Traditional general circulation models (GCMs) and their multiscale modeling framework (MMF) versions poorly represent CMT due to insufficient information of subgrid‐scale flows at each GCM grid. Here the explicit scalar momentum transport (ESMT) scheme for representing CMT is implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model‐Multiscale Modeling Framework (E3SM‐MMF) with embedded 2‐D cloud‐resolving models (CRMs), and verified against E3SM‐MMF simulations with 3‐D CRMs and observations. The results show that representing CMT by ESMT helps reduce climatological mean precipitation model bias over the western Pacific and the ITCZ regions, which is attributed to the weakened mean easterlies over the Pacific. Also, CMT from simulations with 2‐D and 3‐D CRMs impose a similar impact on Kelvin waves by reducing their variability and slowing down their phase speed, but opposite impacts on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) variability. The ESMT scheme readily captures the climatological mean spatial patterns of the zonal and meridional components of CMT and their variability across multiple time scales, but shows some differences in estimating its magnitude. CMT mainly affects the MJO by decelerating its winds in the free troposphere, but accelerates its near‐surface winds. This study serves as a prototype for implementing CMT scheme in the MMF simulations, highlighting its crucial role in reducing model bias in mean state and spatiotemporal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using remotely sensed information to support landslide hazard and exposure assessment throughout the disaster lifecycle

The global coverage and temporal frequency that satellites provide offers a unique opportunity to estimate landslide hazard and exposure throughout the disaster lifecycle, from pre-event planning and forecasting to post-event mapping and impact assessment, and finally to recovery and mitigation. The relevance of satellite-derived data and model products is largely contingent on the spatiotemporal sampling, the hazard characteristics, and the needs from the research or applications community. This work presents an advanced Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) framework that brings together satellite and model products with new machine learning techniques and global inventory data to better model landslide hazard and exposure. We present several new ways to map, model, and assess landslide hazard using a range of satellite data. Two new thrusts of this work are to better account for the exacerbating impacts of fires and to provide a multi-day forecast of potential hazard. Together, these additional components blend information from a suite of satellite and model sources to improve early warning of potentially hazardous areas, identify landslide occurrence and impacts in near real-time, and better characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of landslide hazard and exposure more broadly for future awareness and planning. This suite of tools and products is open to the public and provides information to better assess the potential occurrence and impacts of landslides within different regions of the world. This presentation explores both the architecture behind this framework and examples of how the model components and products have been used by different stakeholders around the world.

Thomas Stanley↗
NASA NTRS2000

Ion Dynamics Model for Collisionless Radio Frequency Sheaths

Full scale reactor model based on fluid equations is widely used to analyze high density plasma reactors. It is well known that the submillimeter scale sheath in front of a biased electrode supporting the wafer is difficult to resolve in numerical simulations, and the common practice is to use results for electric field from some form of analytical sheath model as boundary conditions for full scale reactor simulation. There are several sheath models in the literature ranging from Child's law to a recent unified sheath model [P. A. Miller and M. E. Riley, J. Appl. Phys. 82, 3689 (1997)l. In the present work, the cold ion fluid equations in the radio frequency sheath are solved numerically to show that the spatiotemporal variation of ion flux inside the sheath, commonly ignored in analytical models, is important in determining the electric field and ion energy at the electrode. Consequently, a semianalytical model that includes the spatiotemporal variation of ion flux is developed for use as boundary condition in reactor simulations. This semianalytical model is shown to yield results for sheath properties in close agreement with numerical solutions.

Bose, Deepak↗
DOE OSTI2025

Source Analysis of Ozone Pollution in Liaoyuan City’s Atmosphere Based on Machine Learning Models and HYSPLIT Clustering Method

Firstly, this study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the ozone (O 3 ) pollution in Liaoyuan City using monitoring data from 2015 to 2024. Then, three machine learning models (ML)—random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—are employed to quantify the influence of meteorological and non-meteorological factors on O 3 concentrations. Finally, the HYSPLIT clustering method and CMAQ model are utilized to analyze inter-regional transport characteristics, identifying the causes of O 3 pollution. The results indicate that O 3 pollution in Liaoyuan exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern, with the highest concentrations found in spring and summer, peaking in the afternoon. Among the three ML models, the random forest model demonstrates the best predictive performance (R 2 = 0.9043). Feature importance identifies NO 2 as the primary driving factor, followed by meteorological conditions in the second quarter and land surface characteristics. Furthermore, regional transport significantly contributes to O 3 pollution, with approximately 80% of air mass trajectories in heavily polluted episodes originating from adjacent industrial areas and the sea. The combined effects of transboundary precursors and O 3 transport with local emissions and meteorological conditions further increase the O 3 pollution level. This study highlights the need to strengthen coordinated NO X and VOCs emission reductions and enhance regional joint prevention and control strategies in China.

HYSPLIT clustering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Earth, Wind, Fire, and Pollution: Aerosol Nutrient Sources and Impacts on Ocean Biogeochemistry

A key Earth system science question is the role of atmospheric deposition in supplying vital nutrients to the phytoplankton that form the base of marine food webs. Industrial and vehicular pollution, wildfires, volcanoes, biogenic debris, and desert dust all carry nutrients within their plumes throughout the globe. In remote ocean ecosystems, aerosol deposition represents an essential new source of nutrients for primary production. The large spatiotemporal variability in aerosols from myriad sources combined with the differential responses of marine biota to changing fluxes makes it crucially important to understand where, when, and how much nutrients from the atmosphere enter marine ecosystems. This review brings together existing literature, experimental evidence of impacts, and new atmospheric nutrient observations that can be compared with atmospheric and ocean biogeochemistry modeling. We evaluate the contribution and spatiotemporal variability of nutrient-bearing aerosols from desert dust, wildfire, volcanic, and anthropogenic sources, including the organic component, deposition fluxes, and oceanic impacts.

Marine & Freshwater Biology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of physical and chemical hydrology on bioremediation of a U-contaminated aquifer informed by reactive transport modeling incorporating 238 U/ 235 U ratios

Microbially-catalyzed reductive immobilization of aqueous uranium (U) as a solid phase has been proposed as a U remediation technique. Both laboratory and field experiments have demonstrated that this reduction reaction alters the 238 U/ 235 U ratio, producing a 238 U-enriched U(IV) solid. In contrast, other major U reactive transport processes fractionate these isotopes much less. This suggests the potential to quantify the extent of bioreduction occurring in groundwater containing U using the 238 U/ 235 U ratio, which would substantially improve upon current practices largely relying on U concentration measurements alone. Current reactive transport models for uranium dynamics include only concentration measurements, which are strongly influenced by highly coupled reactive transformation and aqueous transport processes. The complex physical and chemical behavior of U potentially compromises such quantitative analysis of U storage and release. Here we report the first numerical reactive transport model which explicitly incorporates variations in the 238 U/ 235 U ratio of U and demonstrates improved interpretation of the principal chemical reactions and groundwater transport processes affecting the subsurface mobility and distribution of this widespread contaminant. Recent U bioreduction studies performed in a contaminated aquifer in Rifle, Colorado, USA applied Rayleigh distillation models to interpret U stable isotope fractionation observed as a result of acetate amendment. These simplified models were unable to resolve the spatiotemporal pattern of U isotope fractionation recorded in the aqueous solutes. Here, we employ the multi-component, isotope-enabled CrunchTope reactive transport software to interpret these measured U isotope ratios, and demonstrate accurate reproduction of observed trends in both geochemistry and 238 U/ 235 U ratios for two consecutive years of field experiments. Overall, our results indicate that accurately modeling both the U concentration and isotope ratio distributions greatly constrains the parameter space of the model. We find that the transport properties of U in the Rifle aquifer are governed by the presence of low-permeability regions, which the isotopes are uniquely sensitive to. When U reduction is spatially constrained by these low-permeability regions, the shift in the 238 U/ 235 U ratio becomes more muted. Accurate modeling of observed U isotope ratios thus provides a powerful means to better understand bioremediation, and the current study serves to advance the application of this novel method.

238U/235U↗
DOE OSTI2024

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Standardized Data to Improve Understanding and Modeling of Soil Nitrogen at Continental Scale

Abstract Nitrogen (N) is a key limiting nutrient in terrestrial ecosystems, but there remain critical gaps in our ability to predict and model controls on soil N cycling. This may be in part due to lack of standardized sampling across broad spatial–temporal scales. Here, we introduce a continentally distributed, publicly available data set collected by the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) that can help fill these gaps. First, we detail the sampling design and methods used to collect and analyze soil inorganic N pool and net flux rate data from 47 terrestrial sites. We address methodological challenges in generating a standardized data set, even for a network using uniform protocols. Then, we evaluate sources of variation within the sampling design and compare measured net N mineralization to simulated fluxes from the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). We observed wide spatiotemporal variation in inorganic N pool sizes and net transformation rates. Site explained the most variation in NEON’s stratified sampling design, followed by plots within sites. Organic horizons had larger pools and net N transformation rates than mineral horizons on a sample weight basis. The majority of sites showed some degree of seasonality in N dynamics, but overall these temporal patterns were not matched by CESM2, leading to poor correspondence between observed and modeled data. Looking forward, these data can reveal new insights into controls on soil N cycling, especially in the context of other environmental data sets provided by NEON, and should be leveraged to improve predictive modeling of the soil N cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lethality is Local, but Survival is Systemic: Temporal and Multi-Organ Responses to Chlorine Gas Exposure in a Murine Model

Chlorine gas (Cl2) is a highly toxic chemical associated with both localized lung injury and systemic health effects. While pulmonary damage has been well characterized, the systemic inflammatory and metabolic responses remain poorly understood. We aimed to define the temporal and multi-organ responses to Cl2 exposure in a murine model, with a focus on identifying spatiotemporal inflammation and its impact on survival and lethality. SKH1 mice were exposed for 10 min to varying concentrations of Cl2 (94.4–810 ppm, representative of non-lethal, LD10, and LD50 doses) and monitored for respiratory function, perfusion, and acidosis using organ-specific imaging. At multiple time points (40 min, 6 h, 24 h, and 7 d), we measured phosphoproteins, cytokines, chemokines, growth factors, and metabolic hormones in the lungs, heart, cortex, and plasma. Statistical modeling and logistic regression were used to identify biomarkers associated with lethality and survival. We found that lung injury was the primary cause of potential lethality, particularly via early phosphoprotein signaling disruptions. However, survival correlated with early systemic coordination of inflammatory and metabolic signals across organs. Perfusion and acidosis imaging were strongly associated with chemokine and hormone responses. Key survival-associated plasma biomarkers included decreased insulin, increased ghrelin, and decreased eotaxin. While potential lethality from Cl2 exposure is locally driven by pulmonary injury, survival depends on systemic, multi-organ responses that occur rapidly post-exposure. Within this model, our findings identify a potential therapeutic window to enhance survival and suggest candidate biomarkers that may be explored translationally for both triage and treatment of chlorine-related incidents.

chlorine gas↗
DOE OSTI2022

Traffic safety analysis and model updating for freeways using Bayesian method

Freeway crash prediction models are the basic of traffic safety research, yet crash occurrence and the influencing factors change over time. In order to make sure the implemented safety models fit the current traffic environment, this study conducts a comparative analysis of 2017 and 2020 datasets collected from freeways in Suzhou, China. Herein, considering the spatial correlation among analysis units and the hierarchical data structure, a Bayesian conditional autoregressive negative binomial (CAR-NB) model and a Bayesian hierarchical CAR-NB (HCAR-NB) model were used to explore the safety influencing factors, and a traditional NB model was developed for further comparison. To update the HCAR-NB model from 2017 to 2020, Bayesian inference with informative priors was used to improve its goodness of fit and efficiency. Preliminary results showed that 1) the HCAR-NB model outperformed the NB model and CAR-NB model in prediction accuracy, and 2) the number of crashes was significantly correlated with average speed, speed variance, road segment length, number of lanes, and presence of ramps. The potential for safety improvement (PSI) method was applied to the modeling results to identify hotspots for the two years. The results confirmed that the hotspots spatiotemporally shifted among the freeways. The proposed crash prediction model and updating method are expected to assist implementation of informed countermeasures for freeway safety improvement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗