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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Regime-Switching Spatio-Temporal GARCH Method for Short-Term Wind Forecasting

The growth of wind energy poses challenges to the integration of wind energy into the power grid. Within a wind farm, the conditions of local wind exhibit sizeable variations in very short term period and temporal wind speed patterns vary from turbine to turbine. Hence, short-term wind forecasting has been adopted to assist power system operations. In this work, we propose a wind plant-level short term wind speed and power forecasting methodology considering turbine contributions. The proposed model utilizes spatio-temporal dependencies and nonstationarity to accommodate the characteristics of wind farm data by using a novel regime-switching spatiotemporal generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (RS-stGARCH) model. Case studies based on 2 years of data from a wind farm shows that the proposed RS-stGARCH method outperforms benchmark models by up to 21.10% for wind speed forecasting and up to 58.62% for the wind power forecasting.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Automated Development of Molten Salt Machine Learning Potentials: Application to LiCl

The in silico modeling of molten salts is critical for emerging "carbon-free" energy applications but is inhibited by the cost of quantum mechanically treating the high polarizabilities of molten salts. Here, we integrate configurational sampling using classical force fields with active learning to automate and accelerate the generation of Gaussian approximation potentials (GAP) for molten salts. This methodology reduces the number of expensive ab initio evaluations required for training set generation to O(100), enabling the facile parametrization of a molten LiCl GAP model that exhibits a 19 000-fold speedup relative to AIMD. The developed molten LiCl GAP model is applied to sample extended spatiotemporal scales, permitting new physical insights into molten LiCl's coordination structure as well as experimentally validated predictions of structures, densities, self-diffusion constants, and ionic conductivities. The developed methodology significantly lowers the barrier to the in silico understanding and design of molten salts across the periodic table.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatially resolved charge-transfer kinetics at the quantum dot–microbe interface using fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy

Integrating the optoelectronic properties of quantum dots (QDs) with biological enzymatic systems to form microbe-semiconductor biohybrids offers promising prospects for both solar-to-chemical conversion and light-modulated biochemical processes. Developing these nano–bio hybrid systems necessitates a deep understanding of charge-transfer dynamics at the nano–bio interface. Photoexcited carrier transfer from QDs to microbes is driven by complex interactions, with emerging insights into the relevant thermodynamic and kinetic factors. The heterogeneities of both microbes and QD ensembles pose significant challenges in mechanistic understanding, which is critical for designing advanced nano–bio hybrids. We used fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy to analyze charge transfer between a CdSe QD film andShewanella oneidensismicrobes. We correlated the spatiotemporal fluorescence data with an analytical model. Our analysis revealed two distinct distributions of QD de-excitation pathways. The characteristics of these distributions: 1) a faster transfer rate ( k ¯ E T 1 = 1.5 10 9 s - 1 ), with a lower acceptor number ( N ¯ a 1 = 0.03 ) and 2) a slower transfer rate ( k ¯ E T 2 = 4.1 10 8 s - 1 ) with a higher acceptor number ( N ¯ a 2 = 0.18 ). We assign these distributions to the indirect and direct electron transfer mechanisms, respectively. Our findings demonstrate how spectroscopic imaging can uncover fundamental electron transfer mechanisms at complex interfaces, offering valuable design principles for future nano–bio hybrids.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

CHARGE-MAP: An integrated framework to study the multicriteria EV charging infrastructure expansion problem

The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in recent years has necessitated the development of effective charging infrastructures. However, charging infrastructure expansion is a multifaceted problem that requires careful consideration of the existing infrastructure, spatiotemporal distribution of charging demands, power-grid capacity, and budget constraints. Here, to approach this complex problem, we present CHARGE-MAP, a data-driven simulation-optimization framework, focused on ensuring meaningful charging experience for individual EV owners. CHARGE-MAP integrates three modules: an agent-based simulation module that estimates spatiotemporal distribution of charging demands by modeling EV adopter mobility and charging behavior; an optimization module that determines optimal new charging station/charger locations and capacities, while minimizing expected detour distances and wait-times with a limited number of new stations; and a power module that determines how to connect the stations to the power grid while maintaining its stability. Using the state of Virginia (consisting of 95 counties and 38 independent cities) as a case study, our results show that CHARGE-MAP can meet the demand of ~198,600 predicted EVs with 1,305 new public charging stations and 2,164 new chargers. It reduces average detour distances for charging by 66% and wait-times at stations by 72% compared to the existing infrastructure. Furthermore, transformer capacity requirement analysis reveals that only 1.8% of residential transformers require upgrades, while over 80% of commercial charging locations can be supported with modest transformer infrastructure (25 to 50 kVA). This indicates that targeted investments can facilitate cost-effective EV integration. Consequently, CHARGE-MAP provides policymakers and urban planners with crucial data-driven insights for effective EV charging infrastructure expansion. Sign up for PNAS alerts.

charging infrastructure↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discrete Time-Crystalline Order Enabled by Quantum Many-Body Scars: Entanglement Steering via Periodic Driving

The control of many-body quantum dynamics in complex systems is a key challenge in the quest to reliably produce and manipulate large-scale quantum entangled states. Recently, quench experiments in Rydberg atom arrays [Bluvstein et al. Science 371, 1355 (2021)] demonstrated that coherent revivals associated with quantum many-body scars can be stabilized by periodic driving, generating stable subharmonic responses over a wide parameter regime. We analyze a simple, related model where these phenomena originate from spatiotemporal ordering in an effective Floquet unitary, corresponding to discrete time-crystalline behavior in a prethermal regime. Unlike conventional discrete time crystals, the subharmonic response exists only for Néel-like initial states, associated with quantum scars. We predict robustness to perturbations and identify emergent timescales that could be observed in future experiments. Our results suggest a route to controlling entanglement in interacting quantum systems by combining periodic driving with many-body scars.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification of MOOSE/Bison's Heat Conduction Solver Using Combined Spatiotemporal Convergence Analysis

Bison is a computational physics code that uses the finite element method to model the thermo-mechanical response of nuclear fuel. Since Bison is used to inform high-consequence decisions, it is important that its computational results are reliable and predictive. One important step in assessing the reliability and predictive capabilities of a simulation tool is the verification process, which quantifies numerical errors in a discrete solution relative to the exact solution of the mathematical model. One step in the verification process—called code verification—ensures that the implemented numerical algorithm is a faithful representation of the underlying mathematical model, including partial differential or integral equations, initial and boundary conditions, and auxiliary relationships. In this paper, the code verification process is applied to spatiotemporal heat conduction problems in Bison. Simultaneous refinement of the discretization in space and time is employed to reveal any potential mistakes in the numerical algorithms for the interactions between the spatial and temporal components of the solution. For each verification problem, the correct spatial and temporal order of accuracy is demonstrated for both first- and second-order accurate finite elements and a variety of time-integration schemes. Furthermore, these results provide strong evidence that the Bison numerical algorithm for solving spatiotemporal problems reliably represents the underlying mathematical model in MOOSE. The selected test problems can also be used in other simulation tools that numerically solve for conduction or diffusion.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning for Daily Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Motion: An Attribution Assessment of Model Predictive Skill

Physics-based simulations of Arctic sea ice are highly complex, involving transport between different phases, length scales, and time scales. Resultantly, numerical simulations of sea ice dynamics have a high computational cost and model uncertainty. We employ data-driven machine learning (ML) to make predictions of sea ice motion. The ML models are built to predict present-day sea ice velocity given present-day wind velocity and previous-day sea ice concentration and velocity. Models are trained using reanalysis winds and satellite-derived sea ice properties. We compare the predictions of three different models: persistence (PS), linear regression (LR), and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We quantify the spatiotemporal variability of the correlation between observations and the statistical model predictions. Additionally, we analyze model performance in comparison to variability in properties related to ice motion (wind velocity, ice velocity, ice concentration, distance from coast, bathymetric depth) to understand the processes related to decreases in model performance. Results indicate that a CNN makes skillful predictions of daily sea ice velocity with a correlation up to 0.81 between predicted and observed sea ice velocity, while the LR and PS implementations exhibit correlations of 0.78 and 0.69, respectively. The correlation varies spatially and seasonally: lower values occur in shallow coastal regions and during times of minimum sea ice extent. LR parameter analysis indicates that wind velocity plays the largest role in predicting sea ice velocity on 1-day time scales, particularly in the central Arctic. Regions where wind velocity has the largest LR parameter are regions where the CNN has higher predictive skill than the LR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integration of GOES Data for Solar Resource Assessment of the Contiguous United States

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), produced by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), provides high-resolution solar resource data for the contiguous United States (CONUS) using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) East and West observations. This study evaluates the integration of multi-satellite data within the GOES-East/West overlap regions, where conventional longitude-based selection methods often produce an artificial boundary seam. Our results demonstrate that an advanced blending algorithm, which incorporates sun-satellite scattering angles and satellite viewing zenith angles, improves NSRDB accuracy and creates a spatially continuous dataset. Validation against ground-based irradiance measurements reveals reductions in both percentage error (PE) and normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE), particularly in the central United States. The dynamical integration of multi-satellite data provides a robust foundation for more precise modeling of solar resource and improved spatiotemporal analysis of solar ramp across the CONUS.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Projecting Electric Vehicle Electricity Demands and Charging Loads

After over a century of petroleum dominance, electric vehicles are rapidly disrupting the transportation energy landscape. At the same time, the electric power systems are undergoing profound changes as variable renewables replace dispatchable fossil generators. It is critically important to understand how transportation electrification will impact electricity demand, including changes in the load shapes that characterize the system, and the value of flexible electric vehicle charging to better balance electricity demand and supply. This talk focuses on methods to project electricity demand for EV charging with high spatiotemporal fidelity to enable electricity system modeling and analysis and summarizes results from recent NREL studies in this area.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Short-Term Rainfall Prediction Based on Radar Echo Using an Improved Self-Attention PredRNN Deep Learning Model

Accurate short-term precipitation forecast is extremely important for urban flood warning and natural disaster prevention. In this paper, we present an innovative deep learning model named ISA-PredRNN (improved self-attention PredRNN) for precipitation nowcasting based on radar echoes on the basis of the advanced PredRNN-V2. We introduce the self-attention mechanism and the long-term memory state into the model and design a new set of gating mechanisms. To better capture different intensities of precipitation, the loss function with weights was designed. We further train the model using a combination of reverse scheduled sampling and scheduled sampling to learn the long-term dynamics from the radar echo sequences. Experimental results show that the new model (ISA-PredRNN) can effectively extract the spatiotemporal features of radar echo maps and obtain radar echo prediction results with a small gap from the ground truths. From the comparison with the other six models, the new ISA-PredRNN model has the most accurate prediction results with a critical success index (CSI) of 0.7001, 0.5812 and 0.3052 under the radar echo thresholds of 10 dBZ, 20 dBZ and 30 dBZ, respectively.

Wu, Dali (ORCID:0000000231177074)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-inspired spatiotemporal-graph AI ensemble for the detection of higher order wave mode signals of spinning binary black hole mergers

We present a new class of AI models for the detection of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing binary black hole mergers whose waveforms include the higher order gravitational wave modes ($\ell$, |m|) = {(2,2), (2,1), (3,3), (3,2), (4,4)}, and mode mixing effects in the $\ell$ = 3, |m| = 2 harmonics. These AI models combine hybrid dilated convolution neural networks to accurately model both short- and long-range temporal sequential information of gravitational waves; and graph neural networks to capture spatial correlations among gravitational wave observatories to consistently describe and identify the presence of a signal in a three detector network encompassing the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors. We first trained these spatiotemporal-graph AI models using synthetic noise, using 1.2 million modeled waveforms to densely sample this signal manifold, within 1.7 h using 256 NVIDIA A100 GPUs in the Polaris supercomputer at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility. This distributed training approach exhibited optimal classification performance, and strong scaling up to 512 NVIDIA A100 GPUs. With these AI ensembles we processed data from a three detector network, and found that an ensemble of 4 AI models achieves state-of-the-art performance for signal detection, and reports two misclassifications for every decade of searched data. We distributed AI inference over 128 GPUs in the Polaris supercomputer and 128 nodes in the Theta supercomputer, and completed the processing of a decade of gravitational wave data from a three detector network within 3.5 h. Finally, we fine-tuned these AI ensembles to process the entire month of February 2020, which is part of the O3b LIGO/Virgo observation run, and found 6 gravitational waves, concurrently identified in Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo data, and zero false positives. This analysis was completed in one hour using one NVIDIA A100 GPU.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing climate pathways using feature importance on echo state networks

The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States listed climate change as a serious threat to national security. Climate intervention methods, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, have been proposed as mitigation strategies, but the downstream effects of such actions on a complex climate system are not well understood. The development of algorithmic techniques for quantifying relationships between source and impact variables related to a climate event (i.e., a climate pathway) would help inform policy decisions. Data-driven deep learning models have become powerful tools for modeling highly nonlinear relationships and may provide a route to characterize climate variable relationships. In this paper, we explore the use of an echo state network (ESN) for characterizing climate pathways. ESNs are a computationally efficient neural network variation designed for temporal data, and recent work proposes ESNs as a useful tool for forecasting spatiotemporal climate data. However, ESNs are noninterpretable black-box models along with other neural networks. The lack of model transparency poses a hurdle for understanding variable relationships. We address this issue by developing feature importance methods for ESNs in the context of spatiotemporal data to quantify variable relationships captured by the model. We conduct a simulation study to assess and compare the feature importance techniques, and we demonstrate the approach on reanalysis climate data. In the climate application, we consider a time period that includes the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo. This event was a significant stratospheric aerosol injection, which acts as a proxy for an anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection. Furthermore, we are able to use the proposed approach to characterize relationships between pathway variables associated with this event that agree with relationships previously identified by climate scientists.

black-box models↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stone Content Influence on Land Surface Model Simulation of Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration at Reynolds Creek Watershed

Considerable advancement in spatiotemporal resolution of remote sensing and ground-based measurements has enabled refinement of parameters used in land surface models for simulating surface water fluxes. However, land surface modeling capabilities are still inadequate for accurate representation of subsurface properties and processes, which continue to limit the accuracy of land surface model simulation. Our objective in this study was to examine the performance of the variously parameterized Noah-Multiphysics (Noah-MP) land surface model and to improve simulations of evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture dynamics in stony soils using verification from eddy covariance ET and in-situ soil moisture data. Meteorological and eddy covariance data from the Lower Sheep sub-catchment within the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in Southwestern Idaho were employed to drive Noah-MP and to assess simulation results. We evaluated the performance of Noah-MP considering four different scenarios: (1) A one-layer soil profile with Noah-MP default soil hydraulic parameters, followed by five-layer soil profiles using -(2) Noah-MP default soil hydraulic parameters -(3) soil hydraulic parameters derived from a pedotransfer function using field observations, and -(4) hydraulic parameters from (3) which also accounted for stone content in each layer. Each modeling experiment was forced with the same set of initial conditions, atmospheric input and vegetation parameters. Our results indicated that enhanced representation of soil profile properties and stone content information noticeably improve the Noah-MP land surface model simulation of soil moisture content and evapotranspiration.

Land surface models, Soil hydrology, Noah-MP, Evap↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dependence of Deep Convective Cell Properties on Meteorological and Aerosol Conditions during TRACER

Deep convective cells significantly influence Earth’s energy balance and water cycle. However, their accurate representation in numerical models remains challenging due to their small spatiotemporal scales and limited observational constraints. This study examines over ∼400 deep convective cells near Houston, observed by a dual-polarization C-band radar during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) intensive observation period (June–September 2022). Cells are categorized by lifetime into short-lived (<40 min), intermediate-lived (40–80 min), and long-lived (80+ min) groups. Long-lived cells were broader (∼13.2 km at 2–4-km height) and deeper (∼11.4 km) than short-lived cells (∼6.4-km width, ∼7.31-km height). Using random forest (RF) modeling and correlation analyses, precipitable water vapor (PWV), 2–6-km lapse rate, 0–8-km bulk shear, and fine aerosol mass concentration (Mass_f) are identified as key predictors of cell lifetime. Higher PWV is associated with significantly longer convective cell lifetimes compared to the low-PWV group, particularly within low 2–6-km temperature lapse rate (LR_26km), moderate-to-higher 0–8-km bulk shear (BS_08km), and low-to-moderate Mass_f environments. RF analysis also identifies low-level (0–2 km) equivalent potential temperature, PWV, Mass_f, and surface latent heat flux as key predictors for cell width and height. Short-lived cells have higher aerosol number concentrations (500–1000-nm size range), linked to onshore wind conditions and marine aerosols; however, their low concentration suggests the sensitivity may reflect associated meteorological regimes rather than a direct aerosol effect. Long-lived cells have higher concentrations of organic and sulfate aerosols, while short-lived cells exhibit higher black carbon concentrations. These results highlight the intricate dependence of convective cell lifetimes and structure on environmental moisture, thermodynamics, wind shear, and aerosol characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An ML-based terrestrial data fusion and augmentation framework to enable advanced understanding of the terrestrial carbon and water interactions

Soil moisture is essential to the terrestrial carbon and water cycles and land–atmosphere interactions. There are various types of soil moisture data, and each type has the distinct spatiotemporal strengths and limitations, depending on the diverse applications and retrieval methodologies of different data types (Li et al., in review; The PNNL-82151 FY23 Report). However, the limitations of different soil moisture data in terms of accuracy and spatiotemporal coverage hinder our ability to further understand the soil moisture dynamics across scales. To have a gap free soil moisture data product with a fine spatiotemporal coverage and vertical profiles, we train extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models by using (1) in-situ soil moisture measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN), (2) soil moisture from the ECMWF reanalysis (ERA) at the 9 km and sub-daily spatiotemporal resolution, (3) the Daymet meteorological fields, and (4) data products that characterize surface conditions, including soil texture, organic content, topography, vegetation type, and rooting depth. We use the trained XGBoost models that have consistent performance across seven soil layers, i.e., 0–5 cm, 5–10 cm, 10–20 cm, 20–40 cm, 40–60 cm, 60–100 cm, and 100–200 cm, and the gridded model predictors to generate a soil moisture data at the 1 km and daily spatiotemporal resolution for the Continental United States (CONUS) from 2001–2020. This dataset can be broadly used for Earth system model benchmark, monitoring extreme weathers, making informed decisions regarding agriculture, water resource management, climate change mitigation, and ecosystem preservation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatial modeling algorithms for reactions and transport in biological cells

Biological cells rely on precise spatiotemporal coordination of biochemical reactions to control their functions. Such cell signaling networks have been a common focus for mathematical models, but they remain challenging to simulate, particularly in realistic cell geometries. Here we present Spatial Modeling Algorithms for Reactions and Transport (SMART), a software package that takes in high-level user specifications about cell signaling networks and then assembles and solves the associated mathematical systems. SMART uses state-of-the-art finite element analysis, via the FEniCS Project software, to efficiently and accurately resolve cell signaling events over discretized cellular and subcellular geometries. We demonstrate its application to several different biological systems, including yes-associated protein (YAP)/PDZ-binding motif (TAZ) mechanotransduction, calcium signaling in neurons and cardiomyocytes, and ATP generation in mitochondria. Throughout, we utilize experimentally derived realistic cellular geometries represented by well-conditioned tetrahedral meshes. These scenarios demonstrate the applicability, flexibility, accuracy and efficiency of SMART across a range of temporal and spatial scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗