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DOE OSTI2025

Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design With O $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}$(100) Ensembles

Abstract Machine‐learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high‐resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation. However, uncertainty about the relationship between offline and online performance (i.e., when integrated with a large‐scale general circulation model) hinders their development. Much of this uncertainty stems from limited sampling of the noisy, emergent effects of upstream ML design decisions on downstream online hybrid simulation. Our work rectifies the sampling issue via the construction of a semi‐automated, end‐to‐end pipeline for size ensembles of hybrid simulations, revealing important nuances in how systematic reductions in offline error manifest in changes to online error and online stability. For example, removing dropout and switching from a Mean Squared Error to a Mean Absolute Error loss both reduce offline error, but they have opposite effects on online error and online stability. Other design decisions, like incorporating memory, converting moisture input from specific humidity to relative humidity, using batch normalization, and training on multiple climates do not come with any such compromises. Finally, we show that ensemble sizes of may be necessary to reliably detect causally relevant differences online. By enabling rapid online experimentation at scale, we can empirically settle debates regarding subgrid ML parameterization design that would have otherwise remained unresolved in the noise.

Lin, Jerry [Department of Earth System Sciences Un↗

DOE OSTI2025

Are light curve classification metrics good proxies for SN Ia cosmological constraining power?

Context. When selecting a light curve classifier for use as part of a photometric supernova Ia (SN Ia) cosmological analysis, it is common to make decisions based on metrics of classification performance, such as the contamination within the photometrically classified SN Ia sample, rather than a measure of cosmological constraining power. If the former is an appropriate proxy for the latter, this practice would eliminate the computational expense of a full cosmology forecast in the analysis pipeline design process. Aims. This study tests the assumption that light curve classification metrics are an appropriate proxy for cosmology metrics. Methods. We emulated photometric SN Ia cosmology light curve samples with controlled contamination rates of individual contaminant classes and evaluated each of them under a set of classification metrics. We then derived cosmological parameter constraints from all samples under two common analysis approaches and quantified the impact of contamination by each contaminant class on the resulting cosmological parameter estimates. Results. We observe that cosmology metrics are sensitive to both the contamination rate and the class of the contaminating population, whereas the classification metrics are shown to be insensitive to the latter. Conclusions. Based on these findings, we discourage any exclusive reliance on light curve classification-based metrics for analysis design decisions, which (counterintuitively) include but are not limited to the classifier choice. Instead, we recommend optimising science analysis pipeline design choices using a metric of the information gained about the physical parameters of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Lessons learned from the two largest Galaxy morphological classification catalogues built by convolutional neural networks

ABSTRACT We compare the two largest galaxy morphology catalogues, which separate early- and late-type galaxies at intermediate redshift. The two catalogues were built by applying supervised deep learning (convolutional neural networks, CNNs) to the Dark Energy Survey data down to a magnitude limit of ∼21 mag. The methodologies used for the construction of the catalogues include differences such as the cutout sizes, the labels used for training, and the input to the CNN – monochromatic images versus gri-band normalized images. In addition, one catalogue is trained using bright galaxies observed with DES (i < 18), while the other is trained with bright galaxies (r < 17.5) and ‘emulated’ galaxies up to r-band magnitude 22.5. Despite the different approaches, the agreement between the two catalogues is excellent up to i < 19, demonstrating that CNN predictions are reliable for samples at least one magnitude fainter than the training sample limit. It also shows that morphological classifications based on monochromatic images are comparable to those based on gri-band images, at least in the bright regime. At fainter magnitudes, i > 19, the overall agreement is good (∼95 per cent), but is mostly driven by the large spiral fraction in the two catalogues. In contrast, the agreement within the elliptical population is not as good, especially at faint magnitudes. By studying the mismatched cases, we are able to identify lenticular galaxies (at least up to i < 19), which are difficult to distinguish using standard classification approaches. The synergy of both catalogues provides an unique opportunity to select a population of unusual galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗