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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

Optimal Control of Differentially Private EV Charging: A Scalable Learning Approach Under Uncertainty

Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled electric vehicles (IoEVs) enable intelligent charging coordination that accounts for grid congestion. However, increased data exchange raises privacy concerns, as charging patterns can reveal sensitive driver behavior to grid operators. Here, we propose a differentially private (DP) EV charging framework that enables coordinated control while protecting driver data with theoretical privacy guarantees. Nevertheless, integrating DP inevitably introduces uncertainty into the control strategy for EVs, which can lead to infeasible solutions. To tackle this challenge, we develop a feasible and scalable control algorithm based on constrained reinforcement learning (CRL) and convex hulls. While our framework is designed to handle the uncertainty introduced by DP, it is general and also applicable to other sources of uncertainty in EV charging, such as the stochastic nature of driver behavior and renewable variability. This ensures feasible and privacy-preserving coordination of EV charging at scale. Our method constructs convex hulls within the action space to guarantee feasibility under stochastic constraints and incorporates constraint reduction techniques to improve scalability. Case studies based on IEEE benchmark systems demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively balances feasibility under uncertainty, scalability, and privacy in large-scale EV charging control.

Engineering - Power transmission and distribution↗

Benchmarking quantum trial wavefunctions for phaseless auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo

The phaseless auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (ph-AFQMC) method is a stochastic imaginary-time projection technique for computing ground-state properties of strongly correlated quantum systems, with accuracy that depends critically on the choice of trial wavefunction. Here, we investigate ph-AFQMC with trial states prepared using parameterized quantum circuits. In this work, we present a comprehensive benchmarking study of quantum trial wavefunctions spanning unitary coupled-cluster, Hamiltonian-informed, Jastrow-inspired, and adaptively constructed ansatze. The benchmarking evaluates accuracy, expressibility, and scalability of these ansatze within the QC-AFQMC framework. We test these ansatze on linear hydrogen chains under bond stretching and find that several ansatz families produce chemically accurate ph-AFQMC energies across the dissociation curve. We have performed simulations using the CUDA-Q quantum development platform on the GPU partition of the Perlmutter supercomputer. When comparing ansatze at similar numbers of variational parameters, we find that different ansatz families yield comparable ph-AFQMC results despite exhibiting substantially different variational energies, optimization costs, and circuit depths. Our results indicate that the variational energy of an ansatz is not always a reliable indicator of its quality for ph-AFQMC and reveal instances of over-parameterization. In the strongly correlated regime, trial wavefunctions obtained from adaptive ansatze, exemplified here by ADAPT-VQE with the UCCSD operator pool, can outperform their fixed-ansatz counterparts (UCCSD) in terms of projected energies while using substantially more compact circuits, providing a flexible route to optimize quantum resources within the ph-AFQMC framework.

Rofougaran, Rod [LBNL, Berkeley; Columbia U.; PNL,↗

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Non-Nuclear Advanced Controls Testbed Reactor Mockup

The research presented in this report describes our progress in applying stochastic methods and uncertainty quantification, parametric study, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated with Griffin, with the goal of developing a reduced order (surrogate) model which can be rapidly sampled while perturbing multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums, which are controlled by a hybrid proportional, integral and derivative (PID) controller, actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time and $\beta$ from a transient Griffin simulation executed with the improved quasi-static method to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions which control the CD rotation angle. Using a number of stochastic method approaches, we developed a dual purpose training-surrogate model of the NTP system using polynomial regression. The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters of the model, such as coefficients on the PID control, or temperature (directly affect the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate results orders-of-magnitude faster (minutes, not days) than the base model. Once the base model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs and their effect on the output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some physical interference, or there may be uncertainty in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system to operate CDs in a functioning NTP system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Systems-Level Approach to Address Risks and Ethics in Artificial Intelligence Systems

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing the world, from completely controlling routine or mundane tasks like text and image generation, to powering advanced algorithms that control critical systems. The recent advances in generative AI quickly overwhelmed multiple industries from education to finance as first adopters rushed (and continue to rush) to take advantage of the technology. The expanding AI ecosystem presents novel risks and ethical challenges that must be handled to ensure that technology is leveraged fairly and ethically. There are intertwined risks and ethical challenges stemming from the stochastic nature of AI (i.e., intrinsic risks), as well as from specific applications (i.e., extrinsic risks). Appropriately regulating AI requires a systems-approach to develop an integrated solution to these dependent challenges. Thus far, however, questions of risk, ethics and regulation appear to occupy separate spaces. This paper reviews the risks and ethical implications of AI and proposes a system-level approach to integrating ethics and regulation for the nascent industry.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Adaptive PID Gain Scheduling Control for Hydropower Turbine Using Neural CDE and Stochastic Distribution Shaping

This paper introduces a gain-scheduling PID controller design strategy for hydroturbine frequency control mode. This scheme first uses real data to learn the nonlinear dynamics of the hydroturbine using neural controlled differential equations and then perturbs the obtained nonlinear system at different equilibrium points, based on which a static output feedback adaptive dynamic programming algorithm is then used to optimize the PID gains for each equilibrium point. Moreover, a continuous-time version of stochastic distribution control is proposed to further fine-tune the optimized PID gains. Finally, the controller is obtained by implementing linear interpolation between the optimized PID control gains. The simulation results show that the proposed gain-scheduling PID controller can control a larger range of operation points compared with the given fixed PID controller and the baseline method. Compared with the given fixed PID controller, the proposed gain-scheduling PID controller can regulate hydroturbine frequency against disturbances induced by power-load variation with over 50% less overshoot for some operation points.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Frequency Support From Electric Vehicles for Advancing Renewable Energy Integration

The integration of renewable energy resources (RERs) in the modern power grid is increasing rapidly because of aggressive decarbonization goals, lower costs, and increased government investment. However, higher penetrations of inverter-based generation can lead to frequency stability issues because of reduced system inertia. This paper develops a framework for quantifying the contribution of electric vehicles (EVs) toward providing frequency support to the grid and thus increasing the penetration limit of renewable energy resources (RERs). EVs are considered to provide both inertial response and primary frequency response support to the grid. A stochastic approach incorporating the uncertainties associated with the behavior of EVs is developed to derive the discharge limit of EV aggregators. A multi-machine system frequency response (MM-SFR) model is developed, which incorporates the dynamic virtual inertia and droop coefficients of EV aggregators derived from the EV control modules. Frequency security constraints are developed from this MM-SFR model, which, along with the converter voltage security and low voltage ride-through constraints, are integrated within a nonlinear optimization framework to determine the RER integration limit. Here, the efficacy of the proposed approach is validated using the RTS-GMLC test system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Security Constrained Distributed Transaction Model for Multiple Prosumers

Massive access of renewable energy has prompted demand-side distributed resources to participate in regulation and improve flexibility of power systems. With large-scale access of massive, decentralized, and diverse distributed resources, demand-side market members have transformed from traditional “consumers” to “prosumers”. To explore the distributed transaction model of prosumers, in this paper, a multi-prosumer distributed transaction model is proposed, and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) theory is applied to quantify potential risks caused by the stochastic characteristics inherited from renewable energy. First, a prosumer model under constraints of the distribution network including photovoltaic units, fuel cells, energy storage system, central air conditioning and flexible loads is established, and a multi-prosumer distributed transaction strategy is proposed to achieve power sharing among multiple prosumers. Second, a prosumer transaction model based on CVaR is constructed to measure risks inherited from the uncertainty of PV output within the prosumer and ensure safety of system operation in extreme PV output scenarios. Then, the alternating direction multiplier method (ADMM) is utilized to solve the constructed model efficiently. Finally, distributed transaction costs of prosumers are distributed fairly based on the generalized Nash equilibrium to maximize social benefits. Simulation results show the multi-prosumer distributed transaction mechanism established under the proposed generalized Nash equilibrium method can encourage power sharing among prosumers, increasing their own income and social benefits. Also, the CVaR can assist decision making of prosumers in weighting the risks and benefits, improving system resilience through energy management of prosumers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A score-based diffusion model approach for adaptive learning of stochastic partial differential equation solutions

In this paper, we propose a novel framework for adaptively learning the time-evolving solutions of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) using score-based diffusion models within a recursive Bayesian inference setting. SPDEs play a central role in modeling complex physical systems under uncertainty, but their numerical solutions often suffer from model errors and reduced accuracy due to incomplete physical knowledge and environmental variability. To address these challenges, we encode the governing physics into the score function of a diffusion model using simulation data and incorporate observational information via a likelihood-based correction in a reverse-time stochastic differential equation. This enables adaptive learning through iterative refinement of the solution as new data becomes available. To improve computational efficiency in high-dimensional settings, we introduce the ensemble score filter, a training-free approximation of the score function designed for real-time inference. Numerical experiments on benchmark SPDEs demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method under sparse and noisy observations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Weak-form inference for hybrid dynamical systems in ecology

Species subject to predation and environmental threats commonly exhibit variable periods of population boom and bust over long timescales. Understanding and predicting such behaviour, especially given the inherent heterogeneity and stochasticity of exogenous driving factors over short timescales, is an ongoing challenge. A modelling paradigm gaining popularity in the ecological sciences for such multi-scale effects is to couple short-term continuous dynamics to long-term discrete updates. We develop a data-driven method utilizing weak-form equation learning to extract such hybrid governing equations for population dynamics and to estimate the requisite parameters using sparse intermittent measurements of the discrete and continuous variables. The method produces a set of short-term continuous dynamical system equations parametrized by long-term variables, and long-term discrete equations parametrized by short-term variables, allowing direct assessment of interdependencies between the two timescales. We demonstrate the utility of the method on a variety of ecological scenarios and provide extensive tests using models previously derived for epizootics experienced by the North American spongy moth ( Lymantria dispar dispar ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A control-inspired approach for energy transition planning under uncertainty

As the global carbon footprint continues to grow, many countries are implementing carbon emission reduction policies which have incentivized the expansion of low-carbon and renewable technologies. However, the speed and scale of deployment falls short of that needed to meet climate goals. Energy system models serve as key tools for guiding investment decisions and helping policymakers evaluate the effects of various policies on the development of an energy system. This study focuses on the energy system of the United States and builds upon prior work by incorporating more geographic granularity to account for the trade of commodities and addresses transmission congestion through electricity price adjustments. Furthermore, real-world characteristics, such as delays in constructing new liquid fuel production and electricity generation facilities, are integrated using a sequential decision-making approach that better reflects how decisions can be updated as uncertainties unfold. Results demonstrate that stochastic programming combined with sequential decision-making produces energy transition pathways that are robust to multiple uncertain futures. Additionally, considering real-world characteristics significantly impacts the deployment of renewable technologies and the ability to meet carbon emission reduction goals while also reliably meeting demand. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty and real-world characteristics to avoid overly optimistic projections in energy system planning.

energy systems↗

Discrete generative diffusion models without stochastic differential equations: A tensor network approach

Diffusion models (DMs) are a class of generative machine learning methods that sample a target distribution by transforming samples of a trivial (often Gaussian) distribution using a learned stochastic differential equation. In standard DMs, this is done by learning a “score function” that reverses the effect of adding diffusive noise to the distribution of interest. Here we consider the generalisation of DMs to lattice systems with discrete degrees of freedom, and where noise is added via Markov chain jump dynamics. We show how to use tensor networks (TNs) to efficiently define and sample such “discrete diffusion models” (DDMs) without explicitly having to solve a stochastic differential equation. We show the following: (i) by parametrising the data and evolution operators as TNs, the denoising dynamics can be represented exactly; (ii) the auto-regressive nature of TNs allows to generate samples efficiently and without bias; (iii) for sampling Boltzmann-like distributions, TNs allow to construct an efficient learning scheme that integrates well with Monte Carlo. We illustrate this approach to study the equilibrium of two models with non-trivial thermodynamics, the d = 1 constrained Fredkin chain and the d = 2 Ising model. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Causer, Luke (ORCID:0000000194243473)↗

Structural decomposition of merger-free galaxies hosting luminous AGNs

ABSTRACT Active galactic nucleus (AGN) growth in disc-dominated, merger-free galaxies is poorly understood, largely due to the difficulty in disentangling the AGN emission from that of the host galaxy. By carefully separating this emission, we examine the differences between AGNs in galaxies hosting a (possibly) merger-grown, classical bulge, and AGNs in secularly grown, truly bulgeless disc galaxies. We use galfit to obtain robust, accurate morphologies of 100 disc-dominated galaxies imaged with the Hubble Space Telescope. Adopting an inclusive definition of classical bulges, we detect a classical bulge component in $53.3 \pm 0.5$ per cent of the galaxies. These bulges were not visible in Sloan Digital Sky Survey photometry, however these galaxies are still unambiguously disc-dominated, with an average bulge-to-total luminosity ratio of $0.1 \pm 0.1$. We find some correlation between bulge mass and black hole mass for disc-dominated galaxies, though this correlation is significantly weaker in comparison to the relation for bulge-dominated or elliptical galaxies. Furthermore, a significant fraction ($\gtrsim 90$ per cent) of our black holes are overly massive when compared to the relationship for elliptical galaxies. We find a weak correlation between total stellar mass and black hole mass for the disc-dominated galaxies, hinting that the stochasticity of black hole–galaxy co-evolution may be higher in disc-dominated than bulge-dominated systems.

Fahey, Matthew J.↗

Quenching through the QCD chiral phase transition

We present a detailed numerical and analytical study of the out-of-equilibrium dynamics of Model G, the dynamical universality class relevant to the chiral phase transition. We perform numerical 3D stochastic (Langevin) simulations of the 𝑂⁡(4) critical point for large lattices in the chiral limit. We quench the system from the high-temperature unbroken phase to the broken phase and study the nonequilibrium dynamics of pion fields. Strikingly, the nonequilibrium evolution of the two-point functions exhibits a regime of growth, a parametrically large enhancement, and a subsequent slow relaxation to equilibrium. We analyze our numerical results using dynamic critical scaling and mean-field theory. The growth of the two-point functions is determined by the nonlinear dynamics of an ideal non-Abelian superfluid, which is a limit of Model G that reflects the broken chiral symmetry. We also relate the nonequilibrium two-point functions to a long-lived parametric enhancement of soft pion yields relative to thermal equilibrium following a quench.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Stochastic Error Cancellation in Analog Quantum Simulation

Analog quantum simulation is a promising path towards solving classically intractable problems in many-body physics on near-term quantum devices. However, the presence of noise limits the size of the system and the length of time that can be simulated. In our work, we consider an error model in which the actual Hamiltonian of the simulator differs from the target Hamiltonian we want to simulate by small local perturbations, which are assumed to be random and unbiased. We analyze the error accumulated in observables in this setting and show that, due to stochastic error cancellation, with high probability the error scales as the square root of the number of qubits instead of linearly. We explore the concentration phenomenon of this error as well as its implications for local observables in the thermodynamic limit. Moreover, we show that stochastic error cancellation also manifests in the fidelity between the target state at the end of time-evolution and the actual state we obtain in the presence of noise. This indicates that, to reach a certain fidelity, more noise can be tolerated than implied by the worst-case bound if the noise comes from many statistically independent sources.

Analog quantum simulation↗

A spatially-resolved model of neutron-irradiated tungsten coupling stochastic cluster dynamics and finite deformation plasticity

Structural materials used in nuclear reactors face severe degradation in mechanical properties, such as hardening and embrittlement. At the microscopic scale, this occurs due to creation and accumulation of irradiation-induced defects and their interaction with system dislocations. Although techniques exist which can model evolution of irradiation defects, for instance kinetic transport theory-based models, their interaction with mechanical deformation of the bulk material has not been investigated extensively. In this work, we demonstrate a novel spatially-resolved multiscale coupling between microscopic irradiation defect evolution, modeled using Stochastic Cluster Dynamics (SCD) and macroscopic mechanical deformation modeled using a finite-deformation plasticity model. SCD is used to determine the statistically averaged defect cluster spacing, dependent on operating conditions such as irradiation dose and temperature. This acts as an initial condition that governs the critical resolved shear stress of dislocation glide in the macroscopic plasticity model. This framework is used to predict mechanical behavior in post-mortem test of irradiated Tungsten samples, which has found its importance as structural material used in nuclear reactors. The results obtained using the coupled approach are in good agreement with experimental data of uniaxial tension tests. The model is able to capture the effect of temperature and irradiation dose on the material hardening. Two methods are proposed to estimate hardness – using Tabor's Law relating uniaxial yield stress to hardness and from flat-punch simulations. The results are in reasonable agreement with hardness data from micro-indentation experiments of irradiated Tungsten samples. Finally, the model is also able to reveal microstructural details such as spatial variation in defect density and local stress.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

PowderJet: Spherical metal powder production via multi-orifice droplet-on-demand metal jetting

Leading metal additive manufacturing techniques, such as laser powder bed fusion and directed energy deposition, rely on high-quality spherical metal powders. However, traditional powder production methods like gas atomization face limitations, including low in-spec yield, asphericity, and internal porosity. We introduce PowderJet, a powder production platform that uses electromagnetic pulses to eject liquid metal droplets from a multi-orifice nozzle. Unlike stochastic methods, PowderJet tightly controls powder size, distribution, and purity through a droplet-on-demand approach. We detail the system’s design, operation, and performance using a combined experimental and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) framework. Initial results with Al4008 and Cu110 alloys demonstrate successful production, yielding unsieved aluminum powder batches with a mean diameter of 200 µm and a narrow size distribution (15 µm standard deviation). The produced powders are highly spherical, achieving a roundness > 0.95. PowderJet operates with a small melt volume (3 mL) and supports continuous refilling, enabling production rates between 30 and 140 cm³/hr depending on jetting frequency, number of orifices and particle size. CFD simulations show that future systems could achieve rates exceeding 1000 cm³/hr for particle sizes as small as 40 µm. PowderJet’s high yield of in-spec powder makes it ideal for producing precious or hazardous materials that are inefficient to manufacture using conventional methods. This platform offers a scalable, precise, and efficient solution for producing high-quality powders tailored for advanced manufacturing applications.

Atomization↗