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At least 163 records · Page 9

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Schatten, Kenneth↗

A study of an expanding interplanatary magnetic cloud and its interaction with the earth's magnetosphere - The interplanetary aspect

High time resolution interplanetary magnetic field and plasma measurements of an interplanetary magnetic cloud and its interaction with the earth's magnetosphere on January 14/15, 1988 are interpreted and discussed. It is argued that the data are consistent with the theoretical model of magnetic clouds as flux ropes of local straight cylindrical geometry. The data also suggest that this cloud is aligned with its axis in the ecliptic plane and pointing in the east-west direction. Evidence consisting of the intensity and directional distribution of energetic particle in the magnetic cloud argues in favor of the connectedness of the magnetic field lines to the sun's surface. The intensities of about 0.5 MeV ions is rapidly enhanced and the particles stream in a collimated beam along the magnetic field preferentially from the west of the sun. The particles travel form a flare site along the cloud magnetic field lines, which are thus presumably still attached to the sun.

Farrugia, C. J.↗

Auroral ovals versus flare ribbons: Optical footprints of explosive magnetic field reconfiguration in Earth’s magnetosphere and the Sun’s corona

Despite drastically different plasma conditions in the two systems, eruptive energy release events in solar active regions and in Earth’s magnetosphere have a lot in common. Both solar active region eruptions and the substorm activity in the nightside magnetosphere are known to be associated with an abrupt large-scale reorganization of the supporting magnetic systems enabling the conversion and dissipation of the stored free magnetic energy. The rate of energy accumulation in either system tends to be by orders of magnitude slower than the energy release rate, leading to the formation of an impulsive loading-unloading cycle involving a relatively long pre-reconnection phase (substorm growth phase, pre-flare stressing of an active region magnetic field), a short and explosive reconnection phase (substorm breakup and expansion, eruptive flares and CMEs), and a prolonged post-reconnection phase (substorm recovery phase and the post-flare active region reconfiguration). In Earth’s magnetosphere, this loading-unloading cycle is diagnosed by monitoring characteristic changes in the particle precipitation pattern in the northern and southern auroral ovals marking the boundary between the open and close magnetic flux. The position, shape, structure, and dynamics of the auroral borealis were shown to communicate critically important information about an upcoming substorm, the location and timing of the initial reconnection onset, and the subsequent return of the magnetosphere to a lower-energy state. On the Sun, a similar role is played by the chromospheric flare ribbons which enable a detailed diagnostics of the overlying reconnecting magnetic field. In this talk, we’ll discuss similarities and differences in using auroral and flare ribbon observations for monitoring eruptive energy release in respectively Earth’s magnetosphere and solar corona. Special emphasis will be placed on the quantitative interpretation of the two types of optical signatures for empirical diagnostics of the underlying reconnection activity and for constraining its theoretical models. We’ll also compare forecasting capabilities of the two types of optical signatures in the context of space weather prediction objectives.

V. M. Uritskiy↗

Soviet short-term forecasts of active region evolution and flare activity

The structure and strength of the magnetic fields of the Sun's active regions were studied to obtain information for short term forecasting. Intensity forecasts were then made using the information obtained on the gradients of the magnetic fields between sunspots of opposite polarity. A comparison of flare forecasting methods is presented.

Severny, A. B.↗

Surface magnetic fields during the solar activity cycle

The behavior of the magnetic field of the sun as measured in the Fe I 5250 A line is summarized. A latitudinal distribution of the fields observed over 13.5 yr is presented, and episodic formation of the polar fields (about 6 gauss) from a poleward drift originating at the sunspots is noted. Weak magnetic fields (-2 to +2) reach a maximum two years before the maximum in the average field. The total flux remains constant from minimum to maximum, with strong magnetic flux exhibiting an equatorward drift; both strong and new flux appear mostly around sunspots. The appearance of new flux implies the decay of flux elsewhere on the sun, because of the measured constancy of total flux; total replacement of the surface flux can occur within ten days. Field annihilation is concentrated in the active latitudes, where strong opposite polarity fields occur close together.

Howard, R.↗

Implications of solar p-mode frequency shifts

An expression is derived that relates solar p-mode frequency shifts to changes in the entropy and magnetic field of the sun. The frequency variations result from changes in path length and propagation speed. Path length changes dominate for entropy perturbations, and propagation speed changes dominate for most types of magnetic field peturbations. The p-mode frequencies increased along with solar activity between 1986 and 1989; these frequency shifts exhibited a rapid rise with increasing frequency followed by a precipitous drop. The positive component of the shifts can be accounted for by variations of the mean square magnetic field strength in the vicinity of the photosphere. The magnetic stress perturbation decays above the top of the convection zone on a length scale comparable to the pressure scale height and grows gradually with depth below. The presence of a resonance in the chromospheric cavity means that the transition layer maintains enough coherence to partially reflect acoustic waves even near cycle maximum.

Goldreich, Peter↗

The solar cycle; Proceedings of the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak 12th Summer Workshop, Sunspot, NM, Oct. 15-18, 1991

Attention is given to a flux-transport model, the effect of fractal distribution on the evolution of solar surface magnetic fields, active nests on the sun, magnetic flux transport in solar active regions, recent advances in stellar cycle research, magnetic intermittency on the sun, a search for existence of large-scale motions on the sun, and new solar cycle data from the NASA/NSO spectromagnetograph. Attention is also given to the solar cycle variation of coronal temperature during cycle 22, the distribution of the north-south asymmetry for the various activity cycles, solar luminosity variation, a two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle, the origin of the solar cycle, nonlinear feedbacks in the solar dynamo, and long-term dynamics of the solar cycle.

Harvey, Karen L.↗

Attitude Determination Using Two Vector Measurements

Many spacecraft attitude determination methods use exactly two vector measurements. The two vectors are typically the unit vector to the Sun and the Earth's magnetic field vector for coarse "sun-mag" attitude determination or unit vectors to two stars tracked by two star trackers for fine attitude determination. TRIAD, the earliest published algorithm for determining spacecraft attitude from two vector measurements, has been widely used in both ground-based and onboard attitude determination. Later attitude determination methods have been based on Wahba's optimality criterion for n arbitrarily weighted observations. The solution of Wahba's problem is somewhat difficult in the general case, but there is a simple closed-form solution in the two-observation case. This solution reduces to the TRIAD solution for certain choices of measurement weights. This paper presents and compares these algorithms as well as sub-optimal algorithms proposed by Bar-Itzhack, Harman, and Reynolds. Some new results will be presented, but the paper is primarily a review and tutorial.

Markley, F. Landis↗

Attitude Determination Using Two Vector Measurements

Many spacecraft attitude determination methods use exactly two vector measurements. The two vectors are typically the unit vector to the Sun and the Earth's magnetic field vector for coarse "sun-mag" attitude determination or unit vectors to two stars tracked by two star trackers for fine attitude determination. TRIAD, the earliest published algorithm for determining spacecraft attitude from two vector measurements, has been widely used in both ground-based and onboard attitude determination. Later attitude determination methods have been based on Wahba's optimality criterion for n arbitrarily weighted observations. The solution of Wahba's problem is somewhat difficult in the general case, but there is a simple closed-form solution in the two-observation case. This solution reduces to the TRIAD solution for certain choices of measurement weights. This paper presents and compares these algorithms as well as sub-optimal algorithms proposed by Bar-Itzhack, Harman, and Reynolds. Some new results will be presented, but the paper is primarily a review and tutorial.

Markley, F. Landis↗

Fast Quaternion Attitude Estimation from Two Vector Measurements

Many spacecraft attitude determination methods use exactly two vector measurements. The two vectors are typically the unit vector to the Sun and the Earth's magnetic field vector for coarse "sun-mag" attitude determination or unit vectors to two stars tracked by two star trackers for fine attitude determination. Existing closed-form attitude estimates based on Wahba's optimality criterion for two arbitrarily weighted observations are somewhat slow to evaluate. This paper presents two new fast quaternion attitude estimation algorithms using two vector observations, one optimal and one suboptimal. The suboptimal method gives the same estimate as the TRIAD algorithm, at reduced computational cost. Simulations show that the TRIAD estimate is almost as accurate as the optimal estimate in representative test scenarios.

Markley, F. Landis↗

Impacts of Non-Simultaneous Global Photospheric Magnetic Measurements on Coronal and Solar Wind Modeling

The intensity and arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be significantly influenced by the background solar wind encountered as they propagate outward from the Sun into the interplanetary medium. In addition, solar energetic particles (SEPs) race ahead of CME shock fronts and flare regions along magnetic field lines largely determined by the background solar wind. Predicting the solar wind accurately is therefore critical for improving forecasts of CMEs, SEPs, and high-speed streams. Modeling of the corona and solar wind is challenging in general, as it is highly dependent on global photospheric magnetic field maps, which serve as the boundary conditions to all coronal models that drive solar wind models. Unfortunately, less than half of the Sun’s photospheric magnetic field is reliably measured from any given vantage point and thus it is common for the maps to have highly dated and unreliable measurements in them. While Solar Obiter (SolO) now provides for the first time the opportunity to have simultaneous measurements of nearly the entire surface magnetic field of Sun (e.g., when SolO/PHI measurements are combined with those from SDO/HMI), the required alignment to accomplish this occurs only occasionally. Further, coronal models are extremely sensitive to the strengths of the polar magnetic fields of the Sun, which remain poorly observed. Recently, efforts to mitigate this problem include using flux transport models such as the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model, which evolves the field forward in time using well known transport processes occurring on the Sun. However, it cannot account for the emergence of new magnetic flux without direct observations. The ESA VIGIL mission will eventually provide continuous observations from the L5, and the proposed SunCHASER mission will likewise do this at the L4 vantage point should it be funded. Ultimately, what is needed is a constellation of spacecraft distributed around the Sun with magnetographs that continuously measure the global surface magnetic field. In this talk, we discuss how the lack of simultaneous global measurements of the photospheric magnetic field adversely impacts the predictive performance of coronal and solar wind models.

C. Nick Arge↗

Evidence for non-radial fields in the sun's photosphere and a possible explanation of the polar magnetic signal

The appearance of H-alpha fibrils suggests the presence of magnetic fields inclined at noticeably nonradial angles in the sun's chromosphere. Evidence is presented to suggest that these angles continue into the photosphere. The presence even of small nonradial inclinations can significantly affect the appearance of regions observed by a longitudinal magnetograph. In particular, a simple bipolar loop can appear unbalanced when viewed near the limb. It is suggested that the observed polar signal may be nothing more than a geometric effect arising when a balanced but systematically aligned array of bipolar pairs is viewed at an angle.

Pope, T.↗

The Mysterious Origins of Solar Flares: New observations are beginning to reveal what triggers these hughes explosions of the sun's atmosphere

Solar flares can release the energy equivalent of billions of atomic bombs in the span of just a few minutes. These explosions give off a burst of x-rays and charged particles, some of which may later hit Earth, endangering satellites and causing power outages. The sun's tumultuous magnetic fields provide the fuel of flares. The sudden release of energy in a flare results from a process called reconnection, whereby oppositely directed magnetic field lines come together and partially annihilate each other. Although theoretical studies of magnetic reconnection on the sun have been carried out for decades, only recently have space probes uncovered observational evidence for this phenomenon. The telltale signs include pointed magnetic loops located below the spot where magnetic reconnection is taking place.

Holman, Gordon D.↗

Is the earth's dipole actually inclined with respect to the rotation axis?

Planetary exploration by deep space probes in recent years has shown that the dipole moment of some magnetized planets has a surprisingly large inclination angle with respect to the rotation axis. Applying the method developed for the source surface magnetic field of the sun (a spherical surface of 2.5 solar radii), it is suggested that the main dipole of the earth and the magnetized planets may actually be axial (the magnetic moment being parallel or antiparallel to the rotation axis), and that two or three smaller dipoles near the core surface could be responsible for the apparent inclination of the main dipole. In formulating a dynamo theory of the planetary magnetic field, such a possibility should be considered, as well as the inclined dipole case.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗

A search for rotational modulation of the ultraviolet spectra of Psi 3 Piscium and 31 Comae Berenices

IUE observations were made daily over a seven-day interval to search for rotational variability in the ultraviolet emission lines of two rapidly rotating, early G giants, Psi 3 Psc and 31 Com. No evidence was found to suggest that the chromospheric and transition-region lines of these stars, or their ultraviolet continua near 1725 A, are modulated by rotation. The uniformity of the ultraviolet emission of these giants can be accounted for if their outer atmospheres are heated by acoustic waves. If the heating is a manifestation of dynamo-generated magnetic fields as on the sun, then regions of magnetic activity must be rather evenly distributed in longitude over the stellar surface.

Simon, T.↗

Variations in the Sun's Meridional Flow Over a Solar Cycle

The Sun's meridional flow is an axisymmetric flow that is generally directed from its equator toward its poles at the surface. The structure and strength of the meridional flow determine both the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic field and the intensity of sunspot cycles. We determine the meridional flow speed of magnetic features on the Sun using data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. The average flow is poleward at all latitudes up to 75 , which suggests that it extends to the poles. It was faster at sun spot cycle minimum than at maximum and substantially faster on the approach to the current minimum than it was at the last solar minimum. This result may help to ex plain why this solar activity minimum is so peculiar.

Hathaway, David H.↗

Axion helioscopes as solar magnetometers

Axion helioscopes search for solar axions and axionlike particles via inverse Primakoff conversion in strong laboratory magnets pointed at the Sun. Anticipating the detection of solar axions, in this work, we determine the potential for the planned next-generation helioscope, the International Axion Observatory (IAXO), to measure or constrain the solar magnetic field. To do this we consider a previously neglected component of the solar axion flux at sub-keV energies arising from the conversion of longitudinal plasmons. This flux is sensitively dependent to the magnetic field profile of the Sun, with lower energies corresponding to axions converting into photons at larger solar radii. If the detector technology eventually installed in IAXO has an energy resolution better than 200 eV, then solar axions could become an even more powerful messenger than neutrinos of the magnetic field in the core of the Sun. For energy resolutions better than 10 eV, IAXO could access the inner 70% of the Sun and begin to constrain the field at the tachocline: the boundary between the radiative and convective zones. The longitudinal plasmon flux from a toroidal magnetic field also has an additional 2% geometric modulation effect which could be used to measure the angular dependence of the magnetic field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Source Regions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field and Variability in Heavy-Ion Elemental Composition in Gradual Solar Energetic Particle Events

Gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events are those in which ions are accelerated to their observed energies by interactions with a shock driven by a fast coronal mass-ejection (CME). Previous studies have shown that much of the observed event-to-event variability can be understood in terms of shock speed and evolution in the shock-normal angle. But an equally important factor, particularly for the elemental composition, is the origin of the suprathermal seed particles upon which the shock acts. To tackle this issue, we (1) use observed solar-wind speed, magnetograms, and the PFSS model to map the Sun-L1 interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) line back to its source region on the Sun at the time of the SEP observations; and (2) then look for correlation between SEP composition (as measured by Wind and ACE at approx. 2-30 MeV/nucleon) and characteristics of the identified IMF-source regions. The study is based on 24 SEP events, identified as a statistically-significant increase in approx. 20 MeV protons and occurring in 1998 and 2003-2006, when the rate of newly-emergent solar magnetic flux and CMEs was lower than in solar-maximum years and the field-line tracing is therefore more likely to be successful. We find that the gradual SEP Fe/O is correlated with the field strength at the IMF-source, with the largest enhancements occurring when the footpoint field is strong, due to the nearby presence of an active region. In these cases, other elemental ratios show a strong charge-to-mass (q/M) ordering, at least on average, similar to that found in impulsive events. These results lead us to suggest that magnetic reconnection in footpoint regions near active regions bias the heavy-ion composition of suprathermal seed ions by processes qualitatively similar to those that produce larger heavy-ion enhancements in impulsive SEP events. To address potential technical concerns about our analysis, we also discuss efforts to exclude impulsive SEP events from our event sample.

magnetic field↗