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An integrated approach to system design, reliability, and diagnosis

The requirement for ultradependability of computer systems in future avionics and space applications necessitates a top-down, integrated systems ingeneering approach for design, implementation, testing, and operation. The functional analyses of hardware and software systems must be combined by models that are flexible enough to represent their interactions and behavior. The information contained in these models must be accessible throughout all phases of the system life cycle in order to maintain consistency and accuracy in design and operational decisions. One approach being taken by researchers at Ames Research Center is the creation of an object-oriented environment that integrates information about system components required in the reliability evaluation with behavioral information useful for diagnostic algorithms.

Patterson-Hine, F. A.

Hybrid redundancy system for improving reliability - A concept

System combines two concepts - triple modular redundancy (TMR) and spares (replacement system) redundancy. System has triplicated active unit core with associated bank of specifically arranged standby spare units. Curves plotted from characteristic equation show hybrid system is more reliable than conventional TMR systems.

Mathur, F. P.

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 3: HARP Graphics Oriented (GO) input user's guide

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of highly reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed at the outset to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems, and some programs have been beta tested within the aerospace community for over 8 years. This document is a user's guide for the HiRel graphical preprocessor Graphics Oriented (GO) program. GO is a graphical user interface for the HARP engine that enables the drawing of reliability/availability models on a monitor. A mouse is used to select fault tree gates or Markov graphical symbols from a menu for drawing.

Bavuso, Salvatore J.

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 4: HARP Output (HARPO) graphics display user's guide

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of highly reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed at the outset to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems and some programs have been beta tested within the aerospace community for over 8 years. This document is a user's guide for the HiRel graphical postprocessor program HARPO (HARP Output). HARPO reads ASCII files generated by HARP. It provides an interactive plotting capability that can be used to display alternate model data for trade-off analyses. File data can also be imported to other commercial software programs.

Sproles, Darrell W.

Reliability Impacts in Life Support Architecture and Technology Selection

Quantitative assessments of system reliability and equivalent system mass (ESM) were made for different life support architectures based primarily on International Space Station technologies. The analysis was applied to a one-year deep-space mission. System reliability was increased by adding redundancy and spares, which added to the ESM. Results were thus obtained allowing a comparison of the ESM for each architecture at equivalent levels of reliability. Although the analysis contains numerous simplifications and uncertainties, the results suggest that achieving necessary reliabilities for deep-space missions will add substantially to the life support ESM and could influence the optimal degree of life support closure. Approaches for reducing reliability impacts were investigated and are discussed.

Lange Kevin E.

From CMS to the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center – Improved Tracking of Recent Changes in Co 2 and Ch 4 From NASA’s Quasi-Operational Modeling Systems

Reliable, low latency delivery of high quality global flux and concentration information is a growing but still unmet need to advance expanding measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification efforts that underpin federal climate mitigation strategies. Here we present on progress toward developing space-based greenhouse gas (GHG) monitoring systems that can provide comprehensive information trailing real time by a matter of weeks to a few months. Through support from its Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) program, NASA has developed the capability to assimilate XCO 2 retrievals from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory, 2 (OCO 2 ) into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) to create gap-filled, three-dimensional (3D) estimates of CO 2 mixing ratio. When observations are unavailable, concentration fields are further informed by observationally-informed bottom-up flux packages that incorporate remotely sensed fire, nighttime lights, and vegetation observations combined with estimates of atmospheric growth rate based on surface in situ data. The 3D nature of these datasets supports evaluation with independent aircraft data to improve confidence in satellite data, development of new regional modeling approaches, and quantification of the climate impacts of GHGs. The system has recently been expanded to assimilate XCH 4 from ESA’s TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) instrument and is supported by companion efforts to improve delivery of estimates of bottom-up land and ocean fluxes. The quasi-operational GEOS-GHG system is contributing to the recently announced U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center (GHG Center) by delivering information on recent changes in CO 2 and CH 4 emissions and concentrations to support stakeholder and research communities. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the current system configured to support the GHG Center. We highlight examples of how this data contributes to broader NASA initiatives including the Earth Information Center, an innovative virtual and physical exhibit designed to show how NASA data helps the nation combat climate change. We conclude by discussing how innovations in CMS research can address remaining data gaps and modeling challenges to advance operational GHG monitoring in the future.

Lesley Ott

A hierarchical approach to reliability modeling of fault-tolerant systems

A methodology for performing fault tolerant system reliability analysis is presented. The method decomposes a system into its subsystems, evaluates vent rates derived from the subsystem's conditional state probability vector and incorporates those results into a hierarchical Markov model of the system. This is done in a manner that addresses failure sequence dependence associated with the system's redundancy management strategy. The method is derived for application to a specific system definition. Results are presented that compare the hierarchical model's unreliability prediction to that of a more complicated tandard Markov model of the system. The results for the example given indicate that the hierarchical method predicts system unreliability to a desirable level of accuracy while achieving significant computational savings relative to component level Markov model of the system.

Gossman, W. E.

An efficient system for reliably transmitting image and video data over low bit rate noisy channels

This research project is intended to develop an efficient system for reliably transmitting image and video data over low bit rate noisy channels. The basic ideas behind the proposed approach are the following: employ statistical-based image modeling to facilitate pre- and post-processing and error detection, use spare redundancy that the source compression did not remove to add robustness, and implement coded modulation to improve bandwidth efficiency and noise rejection. Over the last six months, progress has been made on various aspects of the project. Through our studies of the integrated system, a list-based iterative Trellis decoder has been developed. The decoder accepts feedback from a post-processor which can detect channel errors in the reconstructed image. The error detection is based on the Huber Markov random field image model for the compressed image. The compression scheme used here is that of JPEG (Joint Photographic Experts Group). Experiments were performed and the results are quite encouraging. The principal ideas here are extendable to other compression techniques. In addition, research was also performed on unequal error protection channel coding, subband vector quantization as a means of source coding, and post processing for reducing coding artifacts. Our studies on unequal error protection (UEP) coding for image transmission focused on examining the properties of the UEP capabilities of convolutional codes. The investigation of subband vector quantization employed a wavelet transform with special emphasis on exploiting interband redundancy. The outcome of this investigation included the development of three algorithms for subband vector quantization. The reduction of transform coding artifacts was studied with the aid of a non-Gaussian Markov random field model. This results in improved image decompression. These studies are summarized and the technical papers included in the appendices.

Costello, Daniel J., Jr.

Inferred Sea Level Prediction in the NASA GMAO Seasonal Forecasting System

Reliable predictions of sea level anomalies on seasonal timescales with lead times of 1 to 9 months may have relevance to stakeholders – for example, in the advance deployment of resources for coastal flood mitigation. Routine prediction and analysis may also highlight physical processes associated with sea level change and modeling capabilities on seasonal and other timescales. These forecasts may represent interannual changes in the seasonal slope of the ocean surface, teleconnection effects such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and variations in seasonal hydrology including precipitation and coastal runoff. Coupled atmosphere/ocean models are routinely used in the seasonal prediction of temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, sea ice cover, and climate indices such as the Niño3.4 predictions under the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) protocol. Within the limits of their configuration, these complex Earth-system models have a potential for depicting regional changes in oceanic column properties, including the sea surface height. Seasonal prediction models generally have no representation of long-term mass contributions from melting land ice, or changes in vertical land motion; their output may be more specifically characterized as predictions of the ocean dynamic sea level. In practice however, the sea surface height prognostic variable is substantially compromised by the forecast model response to initial conditions. Imbalances between the initial, observed hydrologic cycle and the forecast model state produce abrupt adjustments in the model sea surface height. As a result, most seasonal prediction systems employ a constraint on the globally-averaged sea surface height that is applied at each time step. This essentially renders the prognostic sea surface height variable as unserviceable. Several approaches have previously been used to retrieve sea level information from seasonal forecasts beyond the use of the sea surface height variable. Here, we extend a method of relating other prognostic values, including ocean circulation and climate indices, to observed sea level variations. We use the merged altimetry record of the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies data set and monthly revised local reference gauge observations from the National Oceanography Centre Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) to evaluate derived prognostic variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office subseasonal-to-seasonal system version 2.1 (GMAO S2S v2.1). We focus on results for the midlatitudes with particular emphasis on US gauge locations. As shown in previous studies, prognostic ENSO-related indices in boreal winter are well correlated with gauge observations for the US west coast, but also for other locations in the southeastern US. Other forecast climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have relations to sea level that are limited both seasonally and spatially. As expected, surface atmospheric pressure (e.g., inverse barometer effect) is found to be particularly well correlated with observed sea level. We provide a characterization of forecast skill for seasonal sea level with this method.

Richard I Cullather

Use of Soft Computing Technologies for a Qualitative and Reliable Engine Control System for Propulsion Systems

The problem to be addressed in this paper is to explore how the use of Soft Computing Technologies (SCT) could be employed to improve overall vehicle system safety, reliability, and rocket engine performance by development of a qualitative and reliable engine control system (QRECS). Specifically, this will be addressed by enhancing rocket engine control using SCT, innovative data mining tools, and sound software engineering practices used in Marshall's Flight Software Group (FSG). The principle goals for addressing the issue of quality are to improve software management, software development time, software maintenance, processor execution, fault tolerance and mitigation, and nonlinear control in power level transitions. The intent is not to discuss any shortcomings of existing engine control methodologies, but to provide alternative design choices for control, implementation, performance, and sustaining engineering, all relative to addressing the issue of reliability. The approaches outlined in this paper will require knowledge in the fields of rocket engine propulsion (system level), software engineering for embedded flight software systems, and soft computing technologies (i.e., neural networks, fuzzy logic, data mining, and Bayesian belief networks); some of which are briefed in this paper. For this effort, the targeted demonstration rocket engine testbed is the MC-1 engine (formerly FASTRAC) which is simulated with hardware and software in the Marshall Avionics & Software Testbed (MAST) laboratory that currently resides at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, building 4476, and is managed by the Avionics Department. A brief plan of action for design, development, implementation, and testing a Phase One effort for QRECS is given, along with expected results. Phase One will focus on development of a Smart Start Engine Module and a Mainstage Engine Module for proper engine start and mainstage engine operations. The overall intent is to demonstrate that by employing soft computing technologies, the quality and reliability of the overall scheme to engine controller development is further improved and vehicle safety is further insured. The final product that this paper proposes is an approach to development of an alternative low cost engine controller that would be capable of performing in unique vision spacecraft vehicles requiring low cost advanced avionics architectures for autonomous operations from engine pre-start to engine shutdown.

Trevino, Luis

On reliable control system designs with and without feedback reconfigurations

This paper contains an overview of a theoretical framework for the design of reliable multivariable control systems, with special emphasis on actuator failures and necessary actuator redundancy levels. Using a linear model of the system, with Markovian failure probabilities and quadratic performance index, an optimal stochastic control problem is posed and solved. The solution requires the iteration of a set of highly coupled Riccati-like matrix difference equations; if these converge one has a reliable design; if they diverge, the design is unreliable, and the system design cannot be stabilized. In addition, it is shown that the existence of a stabilizing constant feedback gain and the reliability of its implementation is equivalent to the convergence properties of a set of coupled Riccati-like matrix difference equations. In summary, these results can be used for offline studies relating the open loop dynamics, required performance, actuator mean time to failure, and functional or identical actuator redundancy, with and without feedback gain reconfiguration strategies.

Birdwell, J. D.

Neural correspondence to spectrum of environmental uncertainty in multiple-cue probability judgment system with time delay

Despite state-of-the-art technologies like artificial intelligence, human judgment is critically essential in cooperative systems, such as the multi-agent system (MAS), which collect information among agents based on multiple-cue judgment. Human agents can prevent impaired situational awareness of automated agents by confirming situations under environmental uncertainty. System error caused by uncertainty can result in an unreliable system environment, and this environment affects the human agent, resulting in non-optimal decision-making in MAS. Thus, it is necessary to know how human behavior is changed to capture system reliability under uncertainty. Another issue affecting MAS is time delay, which can delay agent information transfer, resulting in low performance and instability. However, it is difficult to find studies on the influence of time delay on human agents. This study is about understanding the human decision-making process under a specific system reliability environment by uncertainty with time delay. We used concepts of expected and unexpected uncertainty to implement reliability of the system usage environment with three types of time delay conditions: no time delay, regular time delay, and irregular time delay conditions. We used electroencephalogram (EEG) for human cognitive neural mechanisms in multiple-cue judgment systems to understand human decision-making. In the reliability of system usage environment, the unreliable system environment significantly creates less memory load by less utilization of system rules for decision-making. In terms of time delay, delayed information delivery does not significantly affect memory load for decision-making.

cognitive process

The conservativeness of reliability estimates based on instantaneous coverage

Reliability modeling must take into account two different types of phenomena, including the fault-occurrence behavior and the fault/error-handling behavior of a system. The effectiveness of the fault/error-handling behavior can be captured by instantaneous coverage probabilities. This paper has the objective to show that the assumption of instantaneous coverage leads to conservative predictions of system reliability for systems characterized by relatively long interevent times for fault occurrences and relatively short interevent times for fault/error-handling actions. The importance of this result is related to the fact that it can now be shown that model predictions based on instantaneous coverage are lower bounds on the true system reliability. Attention is given to a semi-Markov reliability model, instantaneous coverage approximations, the proof of conservative prediction, and the computation of coverage probabilities.

Mcgough, J.