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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Global Precipitation Experiment—A New World Climate Research Programme Lighthouse Activity

The future state of the global water cycle and the prediction of freshwater availability for humans around the world remain among the challenges of climate research and are relevant to several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The Global Precipitation Experiment (GPEX) takes on the challenge of improving the prediction of precipitation quantity, phase, timing, and intensity, characteristics that are products of a complex integrated system. It will achieve this by leveraging existing World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) activities and community capabilities in satellite, surface-based, and airborne observations, modeling, and experimental research and by conducting new and focused activities. It was launched in October 2023 as a WCRP Lighthouse Activity. Here, we present an overview of the GPEX Science Plan that articulates the primary science questions related to precipitation measurements, process understanding, model performance and improvements, and plans for capacity development. The central phase of GPEX is the WCRP Years of Precipitation for 2–3 years with coordinated global field campaigns focusing on different storm types (atmospheric rivers, mesoscale convective systems, monsoons, and tropical cyclones, among others) over different regions and seasons. Activities are planned over the three phases (before, during, and after the Years of Precipitation) spanning a decade. These include gridded data evaluation and development, advanced modeling, enhanced understanding of processes critical to precipitation, multiscale prediction of precipitation events across scales, and capacity development. These activities will be further developed as part of the GPEX Implementation Plan.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the genesis and intensification of simultaneous cyclones in the Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal in November 2020

The North Indian Ocean (NIO), which includes the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Arabian Sea (AS), is frequently impacted by tropical cyclones (TCs). Notably, in November 2020, the simultaneous occurrence of Cyclones Gati in the AS and Nivar in the BoB presented a rare and compelling phenomenon worthy of investigation. This study delves into the underlying mechanisms driving the genesis and intensification of these two Very Severe Cyclonic Storms (VSCS). Key contributing factors include elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP), both crucial for the development and intensification of TCs. Notably, the BoB exhibits higher TCHP values compared to the AS, which facilitated greater intensity for Nivar over Gati. Despite their concurrent formation, the genesis processes of Gati and Nivar were distinct. The early November development of Gati in the AS was modulated by the Rossby wave and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Subsequently, the eastward propagation of the MJO triggered the formation of Cyclone Nivar in the BoB, enhancing convective activity from the AS and coinciding with the arrival of a downward-propagating Rossby wave. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the simultaneous formation of Gati and Nivar, contributing novel insights into the complex interactions between oceanic and atmospheric phenomena. In conclusion, such insights are vital for enhancing the predictive capabilities for destructive weather events in the NIO.

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2023

Aerosol Indirect Effects on Water Vapor in the UTLS of Typhoon Saomai (2006)

The evolution of landfalling Typhoon Saomai (2006) is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with spectral bin microphysics scheme, showing tropical cyclone (TC) could vertically transport water vapor from troposphere to upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Three aerosol sensitivity experiments are conducted to explore the indirect effects of aerosol served as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) on overshooting convection (OTC) and water vapor content in UTLS, namely MAR (maritime), MIX (semi‐continental) and CON (continental). Results revealed that CON simulation with high initial aerosol concentration showing invigorated convection at the periphery of the TC, which interfered with the reformation of TC eyewall, leading to TC weakening finally. In addition, CON simulated the least water content in UTLS through suppressing the number of convection overshooting the tropopause level. Most overshooting events take place during TC developing stage in the eyewall region before landfall. Higher levels of CCN concentration could lead to decreased number of OTC in TC, consistently reduced the water vapor content in UTLS. CON and MIX experiments simulated respectively 21.9% (16.2%) and 9.96% (1.5%) less OTC (water vapor content in UTLS) than MAR simulation. Further, water vapor content in UTLS is affected by the interaction of OTC and ice‐phase microphysics. The interesting point is that the CCN sensitivity experiments show that water vapor content in UTLS of a TC is sensitive to the CCN concentration in the boundary layer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Five-day track forecast skills of WRF model for the western North Pacific tropical cyclones

In this study, the characteristics of simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific by a regional model (the WRF Model) are verified. We utilize 12-km horizontal grid spacing, and simulations are integrated for 5 days from model initialization. A total of 125 forecasts are divided into five clusters through the k-means clustering method. The TCs in the cluster 1 and 2 (group 1), which includes many TCs moving northward in the subtropical region, generally have larger track errors than for TCs in cluster 3 and 4 (group 2). The optimal steering vector is used to examine the difference in the track forecast skill between these two groups. The bias in the steering vector between the model and analysis data is found to be more substantial for group 1 TCs than group 2 TCs. The larger steering vector difference for group 1 TCs indicates that environmental fields tend to be poorly simulated in group 1 TC cases. Furthermore, the residual terms, including the storm-scale process, asymmetric convection distribution, or beta-related effect, are also larger for group 1 TCs than group 2 TCs. Therefore, it is probable that the large track forecast error for group 1 TCs is a result of unreasonable simulations of environmental wind fields and residual processes in the midlatitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent Increasing Trend in October–November Caribbean Tropical Cyclone Activity

October–November Caribbean tropical cyclone (TC) activity has significant impacts for both the Caribbean islands and Central America (e.g., Hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020). October–November Caribbean TCs can also track northward and make continental United States landfall, resulting in substantial damage and fatalities (e.g., Hurricane Michael in 2018 and Delta and Zeta in 2020). We find significant increasing trends in October–November Caribbean hurricanes, rapidly intensifying hurricanes (winds increasing by ≥15 m s −1 within 24 hr), and landfalling hurricanes during the global satellite era (1979–present). Since 1979, we also observe significant warming trends in the western Atlantic Warm Pool and anomalous relative cooling in the eastern Pacific during October–November. These trends yield a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for Caribbean TCs, including reductions in Caribbean vertical wind shear, increases in Caribbean potential intensity, and a more TC-conducive African easterly jet.

Klotzbach, P. J. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Colli↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Uncertainties in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Modeling Using Synthetic Storms

Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard assessment is subject to the bias in TC climatology estimation from climate simulations or synthetic downscaling. In this study, we investigate the uncertainty in TC rainfall hazard assessment induced by this bias using both rain gauge and radar observations and synthetic-storm-model-coupled TC rainfall simulations. We identify the storm’s maximum intensity, impact duration, and minimal distance to the site to be the three most important storm parameters for TC rainfall hazard, and the relationship between the important storm parameters and TC rainfall can be well captured by a physics-based TC rainfall model. The uncertainty in the synthetic rainfall hazard induced by the bias in TC climatology can be largely explained by the bias in the important storm parameters simulated by the synthetic storm model. Correcting the distribution of the most biased parameter may significantly improve rainfall hazard estimation. Bias correction based on the joint distribution of the important parameters may render more accurate rainfall hazard estimations; however, the general technical difficulties in resampling from high-dimensional joint probability distributions prevent more accurate estimations in some cases. The results of the study also support future investigation of the impact of climate change on TC rainfall hazards through the lens of future changes in the identified important storm parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying the Resolution Sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch Scheme Across the Gray Zone by Isolating Interactions: A TWP‐ICE Case Study

The resolution sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch (KF) convection scheme and the role of interactions between the physics and dynamics within the gray zone (<10 km) were investigated using the Separate Physics and Dynamics Experiment (SPADE) framework. Two groups of experiments were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model via traditional (Tradition) runs and SPADE runs with resolutions of 1, 2, 4, and 8 km during the wet period of the Tropical Warm Pool–International Cloud Experiment (TWP‐ICE). Results show that the KF scheme simulates the weakened convective processes well as the resolution increases in both groups, and the changes in the convective variables with resolution in SPADE are smaller than in the Tradition group. This indicates the important effects of interactions between model components on convection parameterizations as the resolution changes. Additionally, the microphysics variables remain nearly unchanged with resolution in SPADE and weaken slightly in Tradition as the resolution decreases, suggesting the relatively weaker influences of model interactions for the resolved‐cloud parameterization. Therefore, the scale‐aware behavior of KF scheme is further strengthened in Tradition runs, primarily through inhibiting the strength of stratiform processes through physics–dynamics interactions and physical components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Precipitation Probability and Its Future Changes From a Global Cloud-Resolving Model and CMIP6 Simulations

This study investigates precipitation probability and its future changes using simulations from the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), a global cloud-resolving model, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. For the precipitation probability comparison between models and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) during 1998–2008, the difference is greatly reduced by regridding to a common coarser resolution, but the difference signs largely remain. Both NICAM and CMIP6 model ensemble mean show less global-mean nonprecipitation fractions than observations, but NICAM agrees better with observations. For global-mean light precipitation probability, NICAM (CMIP6 model ensemble mean) is smaller (larger) than TRMM. NICAM shows higher heavy precipitation probability than TRMM in native resolutions, but it is close to TRMM and falls in the CMIP6 model range after regridding. For the precipitation probability changes from 1979–2008 to 2075–2104, NICAM predicts an increase in nonprecipitation and extreme heavy (>100 mm/day) precipitation probability but a slight decrease in the probability for precipitation <100 mm/day. After regridding to 2.5°, the precipitation intensity where the probability starts to increase becomes ~20 mm/day and the relative increases in nonprecipitation and heavy precipitation probability become much larger. Future heavy precipitation probability relative increases from CMIP6 models are much larger than NICAM at their native resolutions, but NICAM falls in the CMIP6 model range after regridding, indicating robust future increase (decrease) in heavy (light) precipitation probability regardless of underlying convection treatments. Discrepancy, however, exists in the projected nonprecipitation fraction changes: NICAM shows that nonprecipitation probability will increase over most of low and middle latitudes where CMIP6 models show less increases and even decreases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Aerosol and Environmental Conditions on Maritime and Continental Deep Convective Systems Using a Bin Microphysical Model

A series of model simulations were conducted to investigate the effects of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) loading and convective available potential energy (CAPE) on tropical maritime and midlatitude continental deep convection. Dynamical downscaling from global aerosol reanalysis was used to represent aerosol fields for the two convective regimes. We describe a control run and multiple sensitivity experiments using a limited-area model, employing spectral-bin cloud microphysics. The CCN loading is perturbed between the target maritime and continental conditions, roughly 40–2,000 cm -3 at 850 hPa and 1% supersaturation. Surface precipitation rates monotonically increase with increasing CCN loading for both the maritime and continental situations, while these monotonic increases are disrupted in the simulations with reduced CAPE. The increase in precipitation is in the form of convective precipitation, at the expense of stratiform precipitation. CCN increases promote increases in supercooled cloud water, in agreement with previous modeling studies. However, in the simulations investigated herein, the changes in supercooled water have different impacts on the cloud microphysics in the maritime and continental simulations. Increased supercooled water contents lead to more hail and less graupel in the continental simulation. For the maritime simulation, enhanced supercooled cloud water contents promote an increase in graupel since little or no hail is produced. This distinction is due to the difference in relative magnitudes and peak altitudes of supercooled water and snow amounts, which is further attributable to moisture and dynamical differences in the two cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coastal Sea Level Observations Record the Twentieth-Century Enhancement of Decadal Climate Variability

Changes in the amplitude of decadal climate variability over the twentieth century have been noted, with most evidence derived from tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records. However, the length, spatial coverage, and stability of most instrumental records are insufficient to robustly identify such nonstationarity, or resolve its global spatial structure. Here, it is found that the long-term, stable, observing platform provided by tide gauges reveals a dramatic increase in the amplitude and spatial coherence of decadal (11–14-yr period) coastal sea level (ζ) variability between 1960 and 2000. During this epoch, western North American ζ was approximately out of phase with ζ in Sydney, Australia, and led northeastern U.S. ζ by approximately 1–2 years. The amplitude and timing of changes in decadal ζ variability in these regions are consistent with changes in atmospheric variability. Specifically, central equatorial Pacific wind stress and Labrador Sea heat flux are highly coherent and exhibit contemporaneous, order-of-magnitude increases in decadal power. These statistical relationships have a mechanistic underpinning: Along the western North American coastline, equatorial winds are known to drive rapidly propagating ζ signals along equatorial and coastal waveguides, while a 1–2-yr lag between Labrador Sea heat fluxes and northeastern United States ζ is consistent with a remotely forced, buoyancy-driven, mechanism. Tide gauges thus provide strong independent support for an increase in interbasin coherence on decadal time scales over the second half of the twentieth century, with implications for both the interpretation and prediction of climate and sea level variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Simulated and Observed Intense Convective Cores for a Midlatitude Continental and Tropical Maritime Environment

This study contrasts midlatitude continental and tropical maritime deep convective cores using polarimetric radar observables and retrievals from selected deep convection episodes during the MC3E and TWPICE field campaigns. The continental convective cores produce stronger radar reflectivities throughout the profiles, while maritime convective cores produce more positive differential reflectivity Z dr and larger specific differential phase K dp above the melting level. Hydrometeor identification retrievals revealed the presence of large fractions of rimed ice particles (snow aggregates) in the continental (maritime) convective cores, consistent with the Z dr and K dp observations. The regional cloud-resolving model simulations with bulk and size-resolved bin microphysics are conducted for the selected cases, and the simulation outputs are converted into polarimetric radar signals and retrievals identical to the observational composites. Both the bulk and the bin microphysics reproduce realistic land and ocean (L-O) contrasts in reflectivity, polarimetric variables of rain drops, and hydrometeor profiles, but there are still large uncertainties in describing Z dr and K dp of ice crystals associated with the ice particle shapes/orientation assumptions. Sensitivity experiments are conducted by swapping background aerosols between the continental and maritime environments, revealing that background aerosols play a role in shaping the distinct L-O contrasts in radar reflectivity associated with raindrop sizes, in addition to the dominant role of background thermodynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Role of Ice Splintering on Microphysics of Deep Convective Clouds Forming Under Different Aerosol Conditions: Simulations Using the Model With Spectral Bin Microphysics

Observations during the Ice in Clouds Experiment-Tropical (ICE-T) field experiment show that the ice particles concentration in a developing deep convective clouds at the level of T = -15 °C reached about 500 L -1 , that is, many orders higher than that of ice-nucleating particle. To simulate microphysics of these clouds, the 2-D Hebrew University Cloud model (HUCM) with spectral bin microphysics was used in which two main types of ice multiplication mechanisms were included in addition to the Hallet-Mossop mechanism. In the first ice multiplication mechanism ice splinters form by drop freezing and drop-ice collisions. Ice multiplication of this type dominates during developing stage of cloud evolution, when liquid water content is significant. At later stage when clouds become nearly glaciated, ice crystals are produced largely by ice splintering during ice-ice collisions (the second ice multiplication mechanism). Simulations show that droplet size distributions, as well as size distributions of ice particles, agree well with the measurements during ICE-T. Simulations with different cloud condensation nuclei concentrations show the existence of the “optimum” cloud condensation nuclei concentration (or droplet concentration), at which concentration of ice splinters reaches maximum. In these simulations ice nucleation caused by the direct formation of ice crystals upon ice-nucleating particles, as well as the Hallett-Mossop process, has a negligible contribution to the ice crystal concentration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Idealized Simulations of the Tropical Climate and Variability in the Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM): Radiative-Convective Equilibrium

To explore the interactions among column processes in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), the single-column version of CAM (SCAM) is integrated for 1000 days in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) with tropical values of boundary conditions, spanning a parameter or configuration space of model physics versions (v5 vs. v6), vertical resolution (standard and 60 levels), sea surface temperature (SST), and some interpretation-driven experiments. The simulated time-mean climate is reasonable, near observations and RCE of a cyclic cloud-resolving model. Updraft detrainment in the deep convection scheme produces distinctive grid-scale structures in humidity and cloud, which also interact with radiative transfer processes. These grid artifacts average out in multi-column RCE results reported elsewhere, illustrating the nuts-and-bolts interpretability that SCAM adds to the hierarchy of model configurations. Multi-day oscillations of precipitation arise from descent of warm convection-capping layers starting near the tropopause, eventually reset by a burst of convective deepening. Experiments reveal how these oscillations depend critically on an internal parameter that controls the number of neutral buoyancy levels allowed for determining cloud top and computing dilute convective available potential energy in the deep convection scheme, and merely modified a little by disabling cloud-base radiation (heating of cloud base). This strong dependence of transient behavior in 1D on this parameter will be tested in the second part of this work, in which SCAM is coupled to a parameterized dynamics of two-dimensional, linearized gravity wave, and in the 3D simulations in future study.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

How MJO Teleconnections and ENSO Interference Impacts U.S. Precipitation

A composite analysis reveals how the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) impacts North American rainfall through perturbations in both the upper-tropospheric flow and regional low-level moisture availability. Upper-level divergence associated with the MJO tropical convection drives a quasi-stationary Rossby wave response to the midlatitudes. This forces a midlatitude upper-level dipolar geopotential height anomaly that is accompanied by a westward retraction of the jet stream and reduced rainfall over the central-eastern North Pacific. A reverse effect is found as the MJO propagates eastward across the Maritime Continent. These large differences in the extratropical upper-level flow, combined with anomalies in the regional supply of water vapor, have a profound impact on southeastern U.S. rainfall. The low-frequency variability, including that associated with ENSO, can modify the seasonal background flow (e.g., El Niño and La Niña basic states) affecting the distribution, strength, and propagation of the intraseasonal oscillation and the extratropical teleconnection patterns. The combined effects of the ENSO and the MJO signals result in both spatial and temporal patterns of interference and modulation of North American rainfall. The results from this study show that during a particular phase of an active MJO, the extratropical response can considerably enhance or mask the interannual ENSO signal in the United States, potentially resulting in anomalies of the opposite sign than that expected during a specific ENSO phase. Analyses of specific MJO events during an El Niño or La Niña episode reveal significant contributions to extreme events via constructive and destructive interference of the MJO and ENSO signals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Convolutional Neural Network to Emulate Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract It has been widely recognized that tropical cyclone (TC) genesis requires favorable large‐scale environmental conditions. Based on these linkages, numerous efforts have been made to establish an empirical relationship between seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental favorability in a quantitative way, which lead to conceptual functions such as the TC genesis index. However, due to the limited amount of reliable TC observations and complexity of the climate system, a simple analytic function may not be an accurate portrait of the empirical relationship between TCs and their ambiences. In this research, we use convolution neural networks (CNNs) to disentangle this complex relationship. To circumvent the limited amount of seasonal TC observation records, we implement transfer‐learning technique to train ensemble of CNNs first on suites of high‐resolution climate model simulations with realistic seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental conditions, and then on a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis from 1950 to 2019. The trained CNNs can well reproduce the historical TC records and yields significant seasonal prediction skills when the large‐scale environmental inputs are provided by operational climate forecasts. Furthermore, by inputting the ensemble CNNs with 20th century reanalysis products and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations, we investigated TC variability and its changes in the past and future climates. Specifically, our ensemble CNNs project a decreasing trend of global mean TC activity in the future warming scenario, which is consistent with our future projections using high‐resolution climate model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Effect of an Equatorial Continent on the Tropical Rain Belt. Part 1: Annual Mean Changes in the ITCZ

The TRACMIP (Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project) ensemble includes slab-ocean aquaplanet controls and experiments with a highly idealized tropical continent, characterized by modified aquaplanet grid cells with increased evaporative resistance, increased albedo, reduced heat capacity, and no ocean heat transport (zero Q-flux). In the annual mean, an equatorial cold tongue develops west of the continent and induces dry anomalies and a split in the oceanic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Ocean cooling is initiated by advection of cold, dry air from the winter portion of the continent; warm, humid anomalies in the summer portion are restricted to the continent by anomalous surface convergence. The surface energy budget suggests that ocean cooling persists and intensifies because of a positive feedback between a colder surface, drier and colder air, reduced downwelling longwave (LW) flux, and enhanced net surface LW cooling (LW feedback). A feedback between wind, evaporation, and SST (so-called WES feedback) also contributes to the establishment and maintenance of the cold tongue. Simulations with a gray-radiation model and simulations that diverge from protocol (with negligible winter cooling) confirm the importance of moist-radiative feedbacks and of rectification effects on the seasonal cycle. This mechanism coupling the continental and oceanic climate might be relevant to the double ITCZ bias. The key role of the LW feedback suggests that the study of interactions between monsoons and oceanic ITCZs requires full-physics models and a hierarchy of land models that considers evaporative processes alongside heat capacity as a defining characteristic of land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Aerosol Direct Radiative Effects at the ARM SGP and TWP Sites: Clear Skies

The clear-sky aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) was estimated at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites. The NASA Langley Fu-Liou radiation model was used with observed inputs including aerosol vertical extinction profile from the Raman lidar; spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD), single-scattering albedo and asymmetry factor from Aerosol Robotic Network; temperature and water vapor profiles from radiosondes; and surface shortwave (SW) spectral albedo from radiometers. A radiative closure experiment was conducted for clear-sky conditions. The mean differences of modeled and observed surface downwelling SW total fluxes were 1 W m-2 at SGP and 2 W m -2 at TWP, which are within observational uncertainty. At SGP, the estimated annual mean clear-sky aerosol DRE is -3.00 W m -2 at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and -6.85 W m -2 at the surface. The strongest aerosol DRE of -4.81 (-10.77) W m -2 at the TOA (surface) are in the summer when AODs are largest. The weakest aerosol DRE of -.28 (-2.77) W m -2 at the TOA (surface) are in November–January when AODs and single-scattering albedos are lowest. At TWP, the annual mean clear-sky DRE is -2.82 W m-2 at the TOA and -10.34 W m -2 at the surface. The strongest aerosol DRE of -5.95 (-22.20) W m -2 at the TOA (surface) are in November (October) due to the biomass burning season’s peak. The weakest aerosol DRE of -0.96 (-4.16) W m -2 at the TOA (surface) are in March (April) when AODs are smallest.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flower‐Type Organized Trade‐Wind Cumulus: A Multi‐Day Lagrangian Large Eddy Simulation Intercomparison Study

Shallow cumulus cloud fields in subtropical marine trade wind environments, particularly over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, show distinct organizational patterns. Among these, Flower‐type clouds are characterized by expansive stratiform cloud patches surrounded by regions of scattered convection. The objectives of this study were (a) to construct a case study of a time period during the EUREC 4 A/ATOMIC field campaign when Flower‐type organization was observed, (b) to evaluate the fidelity of a multi‐model ensemble of large eddy simulations of that case, and (c) to analyze the interaction between cloud and precipitation processes and mesoscale organization in the simulations. The simulations follow a quasi‐Lagrangian trajectory, allowing mesoscale features to develop over time in a domain that follows the boundary‐layer airmass. The results show a broad agreement in simulated thermodynamic properties across different LES codes, with Flower‐type cloud patches appearing within hours of each other. The consensus among models is consistent with observations made during the EUREC 4 A/ATOMIC field campaign on the specific day of interest. The cloud structure reveals three distinct peaks in the joint probability densities of cloud base and cloud top height, with the dominant peak at any given time influenced by the stage of cloud organization. The simulated cloud system evolution reveals consistent occurrence of maxima in liquid water path and rain rate before Flower reaches its maximum length scale. Targeted sensitivity tests reveal a weak relationship between Cloud Droplet Number concentration and the extent/degree/type of organization.

EUREC4A↗