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DOE OSTI2026

Improvements to In-Canal Assay of High Specific Activity 60Co at the ATR

Improvements to the quality of measurements in the assaying of High Specific Activity (HSA) cobalt 60 produced at the Advanced Test Reactor at the Idaho National Laboratory are presented. Such assays are conducted regularly between cycles at the ATR, and due to the radiological safety concerns, they are performed within the ATR canal. A standard ion chamber detector was placed in a collimated assay tube within the canal. Another tube, parallel to the detector, was used to position various cobalt 60 standards and targets. The collimated port between these tubes allows for the targets to be pulled across via a winch system. Previous measurements were performed at discrete 1.5-inch steps using a hand-cranked winch system. Charge was collected and integrated for 10 seconds at each discrete step during a scan. Two substantial improvements to the assay include an electronically controlled, motor-driven winch system and a software controlled continuous charge collection. Combined, these changes improved the quality of measurements as well as streamline the assay process. Further examination of these charge profiles indicated a reasonable amount of photon scattering, or shine, before a line-of-sight is established. This created inaccuracies in the reported activity of the cobalt targets. A series of MCNP-6.3 calculations were performed in an effort to quantify and correct for this shine effect. The results of the calculations and how they were employed to a create shine correction factor for the in-canal cobalt assay at the ATR are presented. The overall bias showed an overestimation of the HSA cobalt 60 activity by around 7-8%.

07 - ISOTOPES AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Velocity reconstruction in the era of DESI and Rubin/LSST. II. Realistic samples on the light cone

Reconstructing the galaxy peculiar velocity field from the distribution of large-scale structure plays an important role in cosmology. On one hand, it gives us an insight into structure formation and gravity; on the other, it allows us to selectively extract the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect from cosmic microwave background maps. In this work, we employ high-accuracy synthetic galaxy catalogs on the light cone to investigate how well we can recover the velocity field when utilizing the three-dimensional spatial distribution of the galaxies in a modern large-scale structure experiment such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time. In particular, we adopt the standard technique used in baryon acoustic oscillation analysis for reconstructing the Zel’dovich displacements of galaxies through the continuity equation, which yields a first-order approximation to their large-scale velocities. We investigate variations in the number density, bias, mask, area, redshift noise, and survey depth, as well as modifications to the settings of the standard reconstruction algorithm. Since our main goal is to provide guidance for planned kSZ analysis between DESI and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, we apply velocity reconstruction to a faithful representation of DESI spectroscopic and photometric targets. We report the cross-correlation coefficient between the reconstructed and the true velocities along the line of sight. For the DESI Y1 spectroscopic survey, we expect the correlation coefficient to be r ≈ 0.64, while for a photometric survey with δ z /(1+z) = 0.02, as is approximately the case for the Legacy Survey used in the target selection of DESI galaxies, r shrinks by half to r ≈ 0.31. Here, we hope the results in this paper can be used to inform future kSZ stacking studies and other velocity reconstruction analyses planned with the next generation of cosmology experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Genetic variation at transcription factor binding sites largely explains phenotypic heritability in maize

Abstract Comprehensive maps of functional variation at transcription factor (TF) binding sites (cis-elements) are crucial for elucidating how genotype shapes phenotype. Here, we report the construction of a pan-cistrome of the maize leaf under well-watered and drought conditions. We quantified haplotype-specific TF footprints across a pan-genome of 25 maize hybrids and mapped over 200,000 variants, genetic, epigenetic, or both (termed binding quantitative trait loci (bQTL)), linked tocis-element occupancy. Three lines of evidence support the functional significance of bQTL: (1) coincidence with causative loci that regulate traits, includingvgt1,ZmTRE1and the MITE transposon nearZmNAC111under drought; (2) bQTL allelic bias is shared between inbred parents and matches chromatin immunoprecipitation sequencing results; and (3) partitioning genetic variation across genomic regions demonstrates that bQTL capture the majority of heritable trait variation across ~72% of 143 phenotypes. Our study provides an auspicious approach to make functionalcis-variation accessible at scale for genetic studies and targeted engineering of complex traits.

Genetics & Heredity↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dressed-State Hamiltonian Engineering in a Strongly Interacting Solid-State Spin Ensemble

In quantum science applications, ranging from many-body physics to quantum metrology, dipolar interactions in spin ensembles are often controlled via Floquet engineering. However, this technique typically reduces the interaction strength between spins and effectively weakens the coupling to a target sensing field, limiting the metrological sensitivity. In this Letter, we develop and demonstrate an alternative method that directly tunes the native dipolar interaction in an ensemble of nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers in diamond, thereby overcoming these limitations inherent to Floquet engineering. Our approach utilizes dressed-state qubit encoding under a bias magnetic field applied perpendicular to the crystal lattice orientation. This method leads to a 3.2× enhancement of the dimensionless coherence parameter JT 2 compared to state-of-the-art Floquet engineering and a 2.6× (8.3 dB) enhanced sensitivity in ac magnetometry. Furthermore, our results provide a powerful Hamiltonian engineering tool for future studies with NV ensembles and other interacting higher-spin (S > $\frac{1}{2}$) systems.

Quantum control↗

DOE OSTI2026

The AWAKEN wind farm benchmark, Part 2: Modeling results

Accurately modeling wind farm performance in complex atmospheric flows remains a challenge. This paper presents the modeling results of the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) wind farm benchmark, a collaborative effort involving 16 research groups from academia and industry within the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme Task 57. The study evaluates a diverse suite of simulation tools, ranging from fast-running engineering wake models to high-fidelity large-eddy simulations, against a diurnal case study observed during the AWAKEN campaign. The benchmark utilized a three-phase structure to progressively assess model performance as observational data availability increased. Initial blind predictions showed that higher-fidelity models did not uniformly outperform simpler simulation tools. A distinct spatial bias was observed where models struggled to resolve the interplay between a low-level jet, wakes, and terrain-induced flow acceleration. In subsequent phases, leveraging additional measurements for model improvement led to a reduction in mean absolute error across the model ensemble; however, this effect was most pronounced in engineering wake models, where targeted calibration reduced error by up to 40~\%. Overall, the study demonstrates that inflow characterization remains a primary prerequisite for accuracy, particularly for models relying on coarse forcing datasets. While the limited ability to resolve local terrain-flow interactions under single-day conditions represent a recognized constraint, the overall findings on wake modeling and real-world validation still provide valuable guidance for model application and for mitigating this limitation.

Bodini, Nicola↗

DOE OSTI2021

Raman Microscopy Analysis of Wyoming CarbonSAFE Pilot Well Thin Sections for Mineralogy and Organic Matter Characterization

Scanning confocal Raman microspectroscopy (RMS) was used to analyze thin sections for inorganic mineral content and for evaluation of organic material (OM). Thin sections were selected from a stratigraphic test well core in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming under the Wyoming CarbonSAFE project. The well was analyzed with a variety of rock and fluid characterization techniques to determine the feasibility of a commercial-scale CO2 storage site. RMS complements other analyses, including traditional petrography, SEM, porosity and permeability, and XRD For this aspect of the study, RMS is especially important in the evaluation of OM in sealing lithologies. At prospective geologic CO2 storage sites, it is imperative to assess the unconventional oil and gas potential of seals to ensure that any future development would not compromise the integrity of the seals. Whole-slide mineralogical surveys were performed on thin sections from various shale and sandstone formations. Surveys were analyzed with Direct Classical Least Squares to identify and quantify minerals. The location and concentration of minerals was color-coded and overlaid on optical images for visualization of the distribution of minerals. Dense hyperspectral Raman mapping of OM was performed on five thin sections. Eleven spectral parameters diagnostic of organic type and thermal maturity were used to train a Partial Least Squares (PLS) calibration against a set of artificially matured samples spanning the pre- to mid-oil window. The PLS was applied to the study set and a post-mature set. Additionally, the PLS was applied to each point in hyperspectral maps for visualization of trends in maturity across sample sets and discrimination of organic matter types within a given map. In inorganic surveys on thin sections, a total of 14 unique inorganic minerals were identified in Raman spectra including quartz, dolomite, calcite, hematite and anhydrite. Shale thin sections tended to be dominated by organic material. OM was often observed mixed with inorganic minerals. Sand- and mudstones were dominated by inorganic minerals. The PLS extrapolated the post-mature set to reflectances >1.2%. The study set ranged from very immature to postmature in the median of map fit-peak parameters. However, point maturity maps indicate that matrix OM in all study samples is immature and that discreet organic particles selected for mapping, which may be inertinites, bias medians towards more-mature. The work demonstrates the capabilities of RMS to perform both whole-slide mineralogy and OM analysis with applications to formation evaluation in oil & gas, carbon sequestration and mining. Here, analysis of sealing formations in the well indicates high levels of immature organic matter that would not be a viable target for future oil production that could compromise the CO2 storage site. The work brings together diverse disciplines from geology and petrography to analytical chemistry, big data and microscopy.

Myers, Grant↗

DOE OSTI2021

Phase-curve Pollution of Exoplanet Transmission Spectra

The occurrence of a planet transiting in front of its host star offers the opportunity to observe the planet’s atmosphere filtering starlight. The fraction of occulted stellar flux is roughly proportional to the optically thick area of the planet, the extent of which depends on the opacity of the planet’s gaseous envelope at the observed wavelengths. Chemical species, haze, and clouds are now routinely detected in exoplanet atmospheres through rather small features in transmission spectra, i.e., collections of planet-to-star area ratios across multiple spectral bins and/or photometric bands. Technological advances have led to a shrinking of the error bars down to a few tens of parts per million (ppm) per spectral point for the brightest targets. The upcoming James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is anticipated to deliver transmission spectra with precision down to 10 ppm. The increasing precision of measurements requires a reassessment of the approximations hitherto adopted in astrophysical models, including transit light-curve models. Recently, it has been shown that neglecting the planet’s thermal emission can introduce significant biases in the transit depth measured with the JWST/Mid-InfraRed Instrument, integrated between 5 and 12 μm. In this paper, we take a step forward by analyzing the effects of the approximation on transmission spectra over the 0.6–12 μm wavelength range covered by various JWST instruments. We present open-source software to predict the spectral bias, showing that, if not corrected, it may affect the inferred molecular abundances and thermal structure of some exoplanet atmospheres.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

J-PLUS: Uncovering a large population of extreme [OIII] emitters in the local Universe

Over the past decades, several studies have discovered a population of galaxies that undergo very strong star formation events. They are called extreme emission line galaxies (EELGs). We exploit the capabilities of the Javalambre Photometric Local Universe Survey (J-PLUS), a wide-field multifilter survey, with which 2000 square degrees of the northern sky are already observed. We use it to identify EELGs at low redshift by their [OIII]5007 emission line. We intend to provide a more complete, deep, and less biased sample of local EELGs. We selected objects with an excess of flux in the J-PLUS medium-band J0515 filter, which covers the [OIII] line at z < 0.06. We removed contaminants (stars and higher-redshift systems) using J-PLUS and WISE infrared photometry, with SDSS spectra as a benchmark. We performed spectral energy distribution fitting to estimate the physical properties of the galaxies: line fluxes, equivalent widths (EWs), masses, stellar population ages, and so on. We identify 466 EELGs at z < 0.06 with [OIII] EW over 300 Å and an r-band magnitude below 20, of which 411 were previously unknown. Most show compact morphologies, low stellar masses (log(M • /M ⊙ ) ~ 8.13 –0.58 +0.61 ), low dust extinction (E( B–V ) ~ 0.1 –0.1 +0.2 ), and very young bursts of star formation (3.0 –2.0 +2.7 Myr). Our method is up to ~20 times more efficient in detecting EELGs per Mpc 3 than broadband surveys, and it is as complete as magnitude-limited spectroscopic surveys (but reaches fainter objects). The sample is not directly biased against strong Hα emitters, in contrast with works using broadband surveys. We demonstrate that J-PLUS can identify a large sample of previously unknown EELGs showing unique properties following a clear selection process. A fraction of the EELGs are probably similar to the first galaxies in the Universe, but they are at a much lower redshift, which makes them ideal targets for follow-up studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

An experimental platform for investigating astrophysically relevant magnetized plasma jets on the COBRA facility

A new platform has been developed for the 1-MA COBRA generator to investigate the physical processes affecting the formation, collimation, and stability of high-speed outflows in magnetically driven laboratory plasma jets. Such experiments serve as diagnostically accessible surrogates for astrophysical jets under the assumption that the underlying dynamics are scale invariant. In contrast to previous current driven high energy density laboratory jet experiments that use radial/conical wire arrays or foils, the platform described here uses azimuthally symmetric gas-puff injection. This avoids the ablation phase from a solid target, allowing the jets to develop earlier and be driven longer without depleting their mass source and disrupting. A permanent magnet provides an initial poloidal magnetic field, which links the two concentric electrodes and mimics the boundary conditions of a star-accretion disk system. Extended magnetohydrodynamic effects can be assessed using a polarity convolute, which allows for reversal of the electrode bias. The resulting plasma jets exhibit remarkable stability, persisting for hundreds of nanoseconds and achieving aspect ratios ≳30:1.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Illustrating galaxy–halo connection in the DESI era with illustrisTNG

ABSTRACT We employ the hydrodynamical simulation illustrisTNG to inform the galaxy–halo connection of the Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) and Emission Line Galaxy (ELG) samples of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey at redshift z ∼ 0.8. Specifically, we model the galaxy colours of illustrisTNG and apply sliding DESI colour–magnitude cuts, matching the DESI target densities. We study the halo occupation distribution (HOD) model of the selected samples by matching them to their corresponding dark matter haloes in the illustrisTNG dark matter run. We find the HOD of both the LRG and ELG samples to be consistent with their respective baseline models, but also we find important deviations from common assumptions about the satellite distribution, velocity bias, and galaxy secondary biases. We identify strong evidence for concentration-based and environment-based occupational variance in both samples, an effect known as ‘galaxy assembly bias’. The central and satellite galaxies have distinct dependencies on secondary halo properties, showing that centrals and satellites have distinct evolutionary trajectories and should be modelled separately. These results serve to inform the necessary complexities in modelling galaxy–halo connection for DESI analyses and also prepare for building high-fidelity mock galaxies. Finally, we present a shuffling-based clustering analysis that reveals a 10–15 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ excess in the LRG clustering of modest statistical significance due to secondary galaxy biases. We also find a similar excess signature for the ELGs, but with much lower statistical significance. When a larger hydrodynamical simulation volume becomes available, we expect our analysis pipeline to pinpoint the exact sources of such excess clustering signatures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Simons Observatory: gain, bandpass and polarization-angle calibration requirements for B-mode searches

We quantify the calibration requirements for systematic uncertainties for next-generation ground-based observatories targeting the large-angle B-mode polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background, with a focus on the Simons Observatory (SO). We explore uncertainties on gain calibration, bandpass center frequencies, and polarization angles, including the frequency variation of the latter across the bandpass. We find that gain calibration and bandpass center frequencies must be known to percent levels or less to avoid biases on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r on the order of Δ r∼10-3, in line with previous findings. Polarization angles must be calibrated to the level of a few tenths of a degree, while their frequency variation between the edges of the band must be known to O(10) degrees. Given the tightness of these calibration requirements, we explore the level to which residual uncertainties on these systematics would affect the final constraints on r if included in the data model and marginalized over. We find that the additional parameter freedom does not degrade the final constraints on r significantly, broadening the error bar by O(10%) at most. We validate these results by reanalyzing the latest publicly available data from the collaboration within an extended parameter space covering both cosmological, foreground and systematic parameters. Finally, our results are discussed in light of the instrument design and calibration studies carried out within SO.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving Peptide-Level Mass Spectrometry Analysis via Double Competition

A critical statistical task in the analysis of shotgun proteomics data involves controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) among the reported set of discoveries. This task is most commonly solved at the peptide-spectrum match (PSM) level by using target-decoy competition (TDC), in which a set of observed spectra are searched against a database containing a mixture of real (target) and decoy peptides. The PSM-level procedure can be adapted to the peptide level by selecting the top-scoring PSM per peptide prior to FDR estimation. Here, we investigate both PSM-level and peptide-level FDR control methods and come to two conclusions. First, although the TDC procedure is provably correct under certain assumptions, we observe that one of these assumptions - that incorrect PSMs are independent of one another - is frequently violated. Hence, we empirically demonstrate that TDC-based PSM-level FDR estimates can be liberally biased. Further, we propose that researchers avoid PSM-level results and instead focus on peptide-level analysis. Second, we investigate three ways to carry out peptide level TDC and show that the most common method ("PSM-only") offers the lowest statistical power in practice. The most powerful method, peptide-level FDR with PSM competition ("PSM-and-peptide"), carries out competition first at the PSM level and then again at the peptide level. In our experiments, this approach yields an average increase of 17% more discovered peptides at a1% FDR threshold relative to the PSM-only method.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Versatile allelic replacement and self-excising integrative vectors for plasmid genome mutation and complementation

ABSTRACT The ability to better understand the function of proteins expressed by bacteria has typically relied upon the development of genetic mutant strains. This approach has been especially challenging for plasmid-encoded genes, as most of the previously described allelic replacement vectors are inefficient for plasmid genome mutation as they either rely on plasmid-derived counterselection toxins or depend on other strategies suchsacB,tetA, andrpsLwhich have been proven to be less efficient for mutant selection. Integrative vectors lack chromophore indicators, thus requiring laborious screening or excision of the vector’s backbone relies on the introduction of a flippase (FLP)-expressing plasmid. The allelic replacement vector, designated here as pDG1, expresses an X-Gal hydrolyzing enzyme (BgaB) that can be used for blue/white screening allowing identification of colonies that integrated and successfully removed the mutagenesis plasmid without a bias for those still carrying it. pDG1 was further improved by including the rhamnose-inducible Tse2 toxin as a potent counterselection system. The efficacy of pDG1 was validated by deleting portions of the plasmid-encoded VirB4/D4 type IV secretion system and aerobactin-synthesizing operons inSalmonella enterica. The integrative vectors, which contain an ΦC31attPsite and genes encoding ΦC31 integrase (int), can seamlessly integrate to target ΦC31attBonSalmonellaplasmids or chromosome. These vectors were improved by insertingbgaBand FLP-encoding genes so that, following integration, most of the vector’s backbone encompassingint,bgaB, and FLP genes can be excised by FLP, without the need for another FLP-expressing vector, creating white colonies carrying a stably integrated target gene. As such, we were able to integrate a 9.3-kb DNA fragment toSalmonellachromosome and flipped out most of the integrated vector in one step, leaving the target fragment in the chromosome. IMPORTANCE In spite of the dissemination of multidrug-resistant plasmids among Gram-negative pathogens, including those carrying virulence genes, vector tools for studying plasmid-born genes are lacking. The allelic replacement vectors can be used to generate plasmid or chromosomal mutations including markless point mutations. This is the first report describing a self-excising integrative vector that can be used as a stable single-copy complementing tool to study medically important pathogens includingin vivostudies without the need for antibiotic selection. Overall, our newly developed vectors can be applied for the assessment of the function of plasmid-encoded genes by specifically creating mutations, moving large operons between plasmids and to/from the chromosome, and complementing phenotypes associated with gene mutation. Furthermore, the vectors express chromophores for the detection of target gene modification or colony isolation, avoiding time-consuming screening procedures.

Microbiology↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improving Dark Energy Constraints Using Low-Redshift Large-Scale Structures

The primary goal of this project was to improve constraints on dark energy measurements by improving our ability to extract cosmological information from low redshift large-scale structures. PI Clowe's project's primary aim was to reduce the bias in measurements of the masses of clusters of galaxies to a level where the evolution of the cluster mass function can be used in the Vera Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time Dark Energy Science Collaboration survey to improve the accuracy of the measurement of dark energy and other cosmological parameters. Co-PI Seo's project studied observational systematics affecting large-scale clustering of galaxies, which will be used to improve dark energy constraints from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). The cluster lensing project employed a series of simulations and observations of clusters of galaxies to test numerous potential systematic errors in cluster mass measurements using weak gravitational lensing as the accuracy of current weak lensing measurements are more than order of magnitude worse than what is required to use clusters of galaxies for accurate determination of dark energy parameters. PI Clowe and group developed and analyzed simulations to test for, and correct biases introduced in, the weak lensing measurement process. Finally, PI Clowe and group developed a method of detecting clusters using galaxy overdensities and applied the method to the BLISS and DES surveys. The success of spectroscopic dark energy mission such as the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will depend on a thorough understanding of various observational systematics in the target density fluctuations that would give rise to spurious, non-cosmological signals. PI Seo and group developed a deep learning, artificial neural network (ANN) technique that modeled and mitigated such effects, aimed at deriving more robust galaxy clustering signals not only for the baryon acoustic oscillation feature and redshift-space distortions but also for primordial non-Gaussianity constraint.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental Considerations for Estimating Degradation in PV Modules

Carefully controlled laboratory experiments and measurements can enable the determination of acceleration factors suitable for extrapolation to durability and performance of a fielded PV module. Ideally, a single mechanism can be identified with appropriate acceleration factors for extrapolation to the field. However, even with a single mechanism, the inherent uncertainty in these factors leads to uncertainty in the extrapolation which is greater the higher the acceleration factor. This course will explain how because of the wide range of acceleration factors for a given degradation mode, utilizing acceleration factors greater than about 10x will typically lead to unacceptable uncertainty in the results. Therefore, if even just a rank ordering of materials is desired, acceleration factors must be minimized which requires a good general understanding of the scale of the different acceleration factors for the degradation mode of interest. In this tutorial we will discuss what the different purposes are for many of the accelerated stress tests used today. E.g., what is a qualification test, a highly accelerated stress test, a rank ordering test, or a service life prediction test. We will discuss how one can understand the relationship between test results and expected field performance. A single accelerated stress test condition cannot duplicate outdoor exposure for all possible degradation pathways; therefore, one must use targeted evaluation of material properties at different stress levels to determine the relevant acceleration factors and fit it to a model. We will also discuss how to interpret the results of experiments understanding what is relevant/not relevant, or not e valuated in a test. There are many common error people make in their test interpretations because they push the stress levels to be too harsh. This creates biases and can mask the relevant failure modes and mechanisms or will erroneously lead one to over design materials against things that aren't relevant. Several case studies will be presented to illustrate appropriate interpretation of accelerated stress testing results.

degradation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pervasive Warming Bias in CMIP6 Tropospheric Layers

Abstract The tendency of climate models to overstate warming in the tropical troposphere has long been noted. Here we examine individual runs from 38 newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6) models and show that the warm bias is now observable globally as well. We compare CMIP6 runs against observational series drawn from satellites, weather balloons, and reanalysis products. We focus on the 1979–2014 interval, the maximum span for which all observational products are available and for which models were run using historically observed forcings. For lower‐troposphere and midtroposphere layers both globally and in the tropics, all 38 models overpredict warming in every target observational analog, in most cases significantly so, and the average differences between models and observations are statistically significant. We present evidence that consistency with observed warming would require lower model Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Toward an improved estimate of climate sensitivity and its application to key climate metrics (Final Report)

The tendency of climate models to overstate warming in the tropical troposphere has long been noted. Here we examine individual runs from 38 newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6) models and show that the warm bias is now observable globally as well. We compare CMIP6 runs against observational series drawn from satellites, weather balloons, and reanalysis products. We focus on the 1979–2014 interval, the maximum span for which all observational products are available and for which models were run using historically observed forcings. For lower-troposphere and midtroposphere layers both globally and in the tropics, all 38 models overpredict warming in every target observational analog, in most cases significantly so, and the average differences between models and observations are statistically significant. We present evidence that consistency with observed warming would require lower model Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Toward an improved estimate of climate sensitivity and its application to key climate metrics (Final Report)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗