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At least 163 records · Page 9

Can High-resolution WRF Simulations Be Used for Short-term Forecasting of Lightning?

A number of research teams have begun to make quasi-operational forecast simulations at high resolution with models such as the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. These model runs have used horizontal meshes of 2-4 km grid spacing, and thus resolved convective storms explicitly. In the light of recent global satellite-based observational studies that reveal robust relationships between total lightning flash rates and integrated amounts of precipitation-size ice hydrometeors in storms, it is natural to inquire about the capabilities of these convection-resolving models in representing the ice hydrometeor fields faithfully. If they do, this might make operational short-term forecasts of lightning activity feasible. We examine high-resolution WRF simulations from several Southeastern cases for which either NLDN or LMA lightning data were available. All the WRF runs use a standard microphysics package that depicts only three ice species, cloud ice, snow and graupel. The realism of the WRF simulations is examined by comparisons with both lightning and radar observations and with additional even higher-resolution cloud-resolving model runs. Preliminary findings are encouraging in that they suggest that WRF often makes convective storms of the proper size in approximately the right location, but they also indicate that higher resolution and better hydrometeor microphysics would be helpful in improving the realism of the updraft strengths, reflectivity and ice hydrometeor fields.

Goodman, S. J.↗

Polarization radar and electrical observations of microburst producing storms during Cohmex

The life cycles of two electrified, microburst-producing storms that occurred on July 19 and 20, 1986 near Huntsville, Alabama are described and compared. The kinematic and microphysical development of the storm clouds is examined. Lightning activity prior to the onset of the microburst is studied. It is observed that ice phase precipitation particles are important in the electrification of the storm and in the formation of the strong downdraft, and the vertical distribution and movement of mass have a role in determining the total lightning activity and type of flashes.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

Cross-Sensor Calibration of the GAI Long Range Detection Network

The long range component of the North American Lightning Detection Network has been providing experimental data products since July 1996, offering cloud-to-ground lightning coverage throughout the Atlantic and Western Pacific oceans, as well as south to the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The network experiences a strong decrease in detection efficiency with range, which is also significantly modulated by differential propagation under day, night and terminator-crossing conditions. A climatological comparison of total lightning data observed by the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and CG lightning observed by the long range network is conducted, with strict quality control and allowance for differential network performance before and after the activation of the Canadian Lightning Detection Network. This yields a first-order geographic estimate of long range network detection efficiency and its spatial variability. Intercomparisons are also performed over the continental US, allowing large scale estimates of the midlatitude climatological IC:CG ratio and its possible dependence on latitude.

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗

The Convective Nature of the Tropical Cyclone Lifecycle via GLM and GPM Observations

This study examines the convective nature of the tropical cyclone (TC) lifecycle from tropical storm through extratropical transition. We analyze lightning observations collected from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on the GOES-16 satellite in combination with coincident passive microwave and Ku-band radar observations collected from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission satellites. A unique aspect of this study, which spans the Atlantic basin hurricane seasons 2018-2020, is that it provides the first known total lightning observations in TCs throughout their extratropical (ET) transition. Analysis of Tropical Storm (TS), Category 1-2 hurricanes (CAT12), Category 3-5 hurricanes (CAT35), and ET time periods, which are grouped by storm-motion and shear-relative characteristics, show that lightning maxima generally occur regimes of down-motion (up-shear), consistent (inconsistent) with previous studies. Further analysis also breaks down time periods by geographic location (e.g., land, coast, ocean) and shear strength; shifting lightning patterns are observed with increasing shear. The lightning maxima are also generally collocated with minima in 37-GHz brightness temperature observations, which is indicative of precipitation-sized ice. DPR Ku-band reflectivity profiles from the GPM Precipitation Feature (PF) database exhibit distinct differences in depth and intensity for electrically active PFs vs those that are not. On average, PFs defined by a rain rate threshold are larger for hurricane strength ITPs (CAT12, CAT35) as compared to either TS or ET ITPs. This indicates that during the hurricane strength ITPs, PFs may be capturing the entire, symmetric rain shield.

hurricane↗

Objective Classification of Radar Profile Types, and Their Relationship to Lightning Occurrence

A cluster analysis technique is used to identify 16 "archetypal" vertical radar profile types from a large, globally representative sample of profiles from the TRMM Precipitation Radar. These include nine convective types (7 of these deep convective) and seven stratiform types (5 of these clearly glaciated). Radar profile classification provides an alternative to conventional deep convective storm metrics, such as 30 dBZ echo height, maximum reflectivity or VIL. As expected, the global frequency of occurrence of deep convective profile types matches satellite-observed total lightning production, including to very small scall local features. Each location's "mix" of profile types provides an objective description of the local convective spectrum, and in turn, is a first step in objectively classifying convective regimes. These classifiers are tested as inputs to a neural network which attempts to predict lightning occurrence based on radar-only storm observations, and performance is compared with networks using traditional radar metrics as inputs.

Boccippio, Dennis↗

Lightning trends as a precursor to microbursts

The feasibility of using lightning-rate data to aid in the early warning of microburst occurrence in moist environments is illustrated. Convective tendency images were generated for a small microburst-producing storm that developed in northern Alabama on July 20, 1986 during the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment. Radar observations were obtained from the NCAR CP2 10-cm dual-polarization Doppler radar, while the measurements of total lightning activity were provided by the National Severe Storm Laboratory, a mobile laboratory that was located under the storm throughout its lifetime. The scenario for the evolution of wet microburst producing thunderstorms is described.

Buechler, Dennis E.↗

Establishing a Disruptive New Capability for NASA to Fly UAV's into Hazardous Conditions

A 2015 NASA Aeronautics Mission "Seedling" Proposal is described for a Severe-Environment UAV (SE-UAV) that can perform in-situ measurements in hazardous atmospheric conditions like lightning, volcanic ash and radiation. Specifically, this paper describes the design of a proof-of-concept vehicle and measurement system that can survive lightning attachment during flight operations into thunderstorms. Elements from three NASA centers draw together for the SE-UAV concept. 1) The NASA KSC Genesis UAV was developed in collaboration with the DARPA Nimbus program to measure electric field and X-rays present within thunderstorms. 2) A novel NASA LaRC fiber-optic sensor uses Faraday-effect polarization rotation to measure total lightning electric current on an air vehicle fuselage. 3) NASA AFRC's state-of-the-art Fiber Optics and Systems Integration Laboratory is envisioned to transition the Faraday system to a compact, light-weight, all-fiber design. The SE-UAV will provide in-flight lightning electric-current return stroke and recoil leader data, and serve as a platform for development of emerging sensors and new missions into hazardous environments. NASA's Aeronautics and Science Missions are interested in a capability to perform in-situ volcanic plume measurements and long-endurance UAV operations in various weather conditions. (Figure 1 shows an artist concept of a SE-UAV flying near a volcano.) This paper concludes with an overview of the NASA Aeronautics Strategic Vision, Programs, and how a SE-UAV is envisioned to impact them. The SE-UAV concept leverages high-value legacy research products into a new capability for NASA to fly a pathfinder UAV into hazardous conditions, and is presented in the SPIE DSS venue to explore teaming, collaboration and advocacy opportunities outside NASA.

Ely, Jay↗

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Two new approaches are proposed and developed for making time and space dependent, quantitative short-term forecasts of lightning threat, and a blend of these approaches is devised that capitalizes on the strengths of each. The new methods are distinctive in that they are based entirely on the ice-phase hydrometeor fields generated by regional cloud-resolving numerical simulations, such as those produced by the WRF model. These methods are justified by established observational evidence linking aspects of the precipitating ice hydrometeor fields to total flash rates. The methods are straightforward and easy to implement, and offer an effective near-term alternative to the incorporation of complex and costly cloud electrification schemes into numerical models. One method is based on upward fluxes of precipitating ice hydrometeors in the mixed phase region at the-15 C level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domain-wide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domain-wide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. Our blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Exploratory tests for selected North Alabama cases show that, because WRF can distinguish the general character of most convective events, our methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because the models tend to have more difficulty in predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models,the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of forecasts become available.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

Cubespark: A New Satellite-Based 3d Lightning Observing Concept

Legacy and current space-based optical lightning detectors are insensitive to small and dim pulses that make up much of the lightning activity produced by severe storms. Moreover, lightning flashes produced at low altitudes within optically thick clouds are severely under-detected by current optical detectors. Lastly, there is currently no capability to characterize the 3D structure of lightning both day and night at the global scale, yet this information is critical for identifying lightning produced in updraft regions, including lightning occurring in overshooting tops, which is a distinctive signature of severe weather. Global 3D lightning information is also critical for understanding the vertical distribution of NOx production and identifying anomalously electrified storms. Furthermore, the vertical distribution of lightning has implications for how microphysical (e.g., ice-based) and thermodynamical (e.g., latent heat release) processes vary regionally, as well as seasonally – e.g., winter lightning typically occurs at lower altitudes than summer lightning and is often associated with tall, man-made structures. Finally, global-scale 3D lightning observations would directly provide flash type (i.e., CG or IC) information that is very useful in all of the studies mentioned in this paragraph and is fundamental in identifying/documenting deleterious CG-caused impacts (e.g., wildfires, power-outages, crop and property damage, and associated insurance claims). A new, satellite mission concept called CubeSpark is being designed to address these shortcomings and fill this measurement gap by providing novel 3D observations of total lightning activity. CubeSpark will utilize a constellation of low-Earth orbiting small satellites that make radio frequency (RF) and bi-spectral optical measurements of lightning. Two options for combining these measurements to retrieve the 3D location of lightning are considered with corresponding measurement simulators built to understand the level of detail and viability of each approach. Although the level of detail varies for each combined measurement approach, results indicate that a 3D location accuracy of < 1-2 km in each dimension is feasible across 300-500 km wide swaths, which suggests that CubeSpark can resolve the charge structure of thunderclouds from the tropics to the mid- and high-latitudes.

lightning↗

Optical Lightning Detection From Space

Since 1995 we have had one or more optical lightning sensors in low earth orbit (LEO) providing near continuous lightning observations of the earth. The resulting data sets have enabled scientists to study global lighting distributions and their variable. Diurnal, seasonal and interannual variabilities are clearly revealed. In addition, because of the exceptionally high detection efficiency of the optical sensing technique and the high spatial resolution, it is possible to study individual clouds and cloud system despite a viewing time that is often as short as 80 seconds. These case studies have demonstrated the importance of total lightning measurements in the study of severe weather. Results from these space-based lightning measurements will be presented as well as the next logical concept - optical observations from geostationary orbit (GEO). With a Lightning Mapper Sensor (LMS) in GEO, it will be possible to monitor severe weather on a continuous basis and to disseminate the data in less than 60 seconds.

Christian, Hugh J., Jr.↗

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\dgc\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because models tend to have more difficulty in correctly predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of cloud-allowing forecasts become available.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

Climate and Lightning: An updated TRMM-LIS Analysis

The TRMM Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) has sampled global tropical and sub-tropical lightning flash densities for approximately 11 years. These data were originally processed and results presented by the authors in the 3rd AMS MALD Conference held in 2007 using both pre and post TRMM-boost lightning data. These data were normalized for the orbit boost by scaling the pre-boost data by a fixed constant based on the different swath areas for the pre and post-boost years (post-boost after 2001). Inevitably, one must question this simple approach to accounting for the orbit boost when sampling such a noisy quantity. Hence we are in the process of reprocessing the entire 11-year TRMM LIS dataset to reduce the orbit swath of the post-boost era to that of the pre-boost in order to eliminate sampling bias in the dataset. Study of the diurnal/seasonal/annual sampling suggests that those biases are already minimal and should not contribute to error in examination of annual trends. We will present new analysis of the 11-year annual trends in total lightning flash density for all latitudinal belts and select regions/regimes of the tropics as related to conventional climate signals and precipitation contents in the same period. The results should enable us to address, in some fashion, the sensitivity of the lightning flash density to subtle changes in climate.

Petersen, Walter A.↗

Structure and Characteristics of Precipitation Systems Observed by TRMM

Multi-sensor measurements of total lightning (in-cloud plus cloud-to-ground) from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) aboard the TRMM satellite has been combined with passive microwave ice scattering and precipitation radar reflectivity profile information previously cataloged for precipitation features observed by TRMM. These precipitation features are defined by their surface rainfall or ice scattering signatures, with horizontal scales approx. 100 - 10000 sq km. Additionally, convective scale (approx. 100 sq km) storms are defined by the lightning data. Over the U.S. the national cloud-to-ground lightning observations are used to also determine the ratio of in-cloud to cloud-to-ground lightning, where it is hypothesized these ratios are related to the vertical profile of reflectivity and concentration of precipitation-sized ice. Combining the LIS, TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), and Precipitation Radar (PR) for these storms allows investigation of the convective structures and convective regimes leading to observed lightning, scattering, and reflectivity signatures. Application of this approach to a global, multi-year data set (1998-2000) furthers our understanding of convective processes in different climatological regimes. The figure shows the distribution of high flash rate storms.

Goodman, Steve↗

The North Alabama Severe Thunderstorm Observations, Research, and Monitoring Network (STORMnet)

The Severe Thunderstorm Observations, Research, and Monitoring network (STORMnet) became operational in 2001 as a test bed to infuse new science and technologies into the severe and hazardous weather forecasting and warning process. STORMnet is collaboration among NASA scientists, National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, emergency managers and other partners. STORMnet integrates total lightning observations from a ten-station 3-D VHF regional lightning mapping array, the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), real-time regional NEXRAD Doppler radar, satellite visible and infrared imagers, and a mobile atmospheric profiling system to characterize storms and their evolution. The storm characteristics and life-cycle trending are accomplished in real-time through the second generation Lightning Imaging Sensor Demonstration and Display (LISDAD II), a distributed processing system with a JAVA-based display application that allows anyone, anywhere to track individual storm histories within the Tennessee Valley region of north Alabama and Tennessee, a region of the southeastern U.S. well known for abundant severe weather.

Goodman, S. J.↗

SPoRT - An End-to-End R2O Activity

Established in 2002 to demonstrate the weather and forecasting application of real-time EOS measurements, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has grown to be an end-to-end research to operations activity focused on the use of advanced NASA modeling and data assimilation approaches, nowcasting techniques, and unique high-resolution multispectral observational data applications from EOS satellites to improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional and local scale. SPoRT currently partners with several universities and other government agencies for access to real-time data and products, and works collaboratively with them and operational end users at 13 WFOs to develop and test the new products and capabilities in a "test-bed" mode. The test-bed simulates key aspects of the operational environment without putting constraints on the forecaster workload. Products and capabilities which show utility in the test-bed environment are then transitioned experimentally into the operational environment for further evaluation and assessment. SPoRT focuses on a suite of data and products from MODIS, AMSR-E, and AIRS on the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites, and total lightning measurements from ground-based networks. Some of the observations are assimilated into or used with various versions of the WRF model to provide supplemental forecast guidance to operational end users. SPoRT is enhancing partnerships with NOAA / NESDIS for new product development and data access to exploit the remote sensing capabilities of instruments on the NPOESS satellites to address short term weather forecasting problems. The VIIRS and CrIS instruments on the NPP and follow-on NPOESS satellites provide similar observing capabilities to the MODIS and AIRS instruments on Terra and Aqua. SPoRT will be transitioning existing and new capabilities into the AWIIPS II environment to continue the continuity of its activities.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

NASA/SPoRt: GOES-R Activities in Support of Product Development, Management, and Training

SPoRT is using current capabilities of MODIS and VIIRS, combined with current GOES (i.e. Hybrid Imagery) to demonstrate mesoscale capabilities of future ABI instrument. SPoRT is transitioning RGBs from EUMETSAT standard "recipes" to demonstrate a method to more efficiently handle the increase channels/frequency of ABI. Challenges for RGB production exist. Internal vs. external production, Bit depth needed, Adding quantitative information, etc. SPoRT forming group to address these issues. SPoRT is leading efforts on the application of total lightning in operations and to educate users of this new capability. Training in many forms is used to support testbed activities and is a key part to the transition process.

Fuell, Kevin↗

SPoRT Participation in the GOES-R and JPSS Proving Grounds

For the last several years, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project at has been working with the various algorithm working groups and science teams to demonstrate the utility of future operational sensors for GOES-R and the suite of instruments for the JPSS observing platforms. For GOES-R, imagery and products have been developed from polar-orbiting sensors such as MODIS and geostationary observations from SEVIRI, simulated imagery, enhanced products derived from existing GOES satellites, and data from ground-based observing systems to generate pseudo or proxy products for the ABI and GLM instruments. The suite of products include GOES-POES basic and RGB hybrid imagery, total lightning flash products, quantitative precipitation estimates, and convective initiation products. SPoRT is using imagery and products from VIIRS, CrIS, ATMS, and OMPS to show the utility of data and products from their operational counterparts on JPSS. The products include VIIRS imagery in swath form, the GOES-POES hybrid, a suite of RGB products including the air mass RGB using water vapor and ozone channels from CrIS, and several DNB products. Over a dozen SPoRT collaborative WFOs and several National Centers are involved in an intensive evaluation of the operational utility of these products.

Jedlovec, Gary↗

Compact Coronagraph (CCOR) Accommodation on GOES-U

The CCOR-1 will monitor our Sun’s Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). It will reside on the Sun-Pointing Platform (SPP) of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) -U in a geostationary orbit. As a member of the GOES-R Series of satellites, GOES-U will pro-vide advanced imagery and atmospheric measurements of Earth’s weather, oceans and envi-ronment, real-time mapping of total lightning activity, and as well as monitoring of solar ac-tivity and space weather. GOES-U is the final satellite in the GOES-R Series, with an expected launch date in April of 2024. The Compact Coronagraph (CCOR) instrument was designed, built, and tested by the Unit-ed States Naval Research Laboratory. CCOR-1, the first in a series of coronagraphs, is funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is managed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and will ultimately be operated by NOAA. Us-ing a series of images of the Sun’s coronal white-light, scientists at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) can de-termine the size, velocity, and density of these CMEs. This information can then be used to assess and prepare for potential impacts of these solar storms on infrastructure here on Earth, as well as assets in space. CCOR-1 has completed instrument-level Integration and Testing (I&T), delivered to the GOES-U satellite vendor and is now mechanically integrated with the spacecraft. The GOES-U satellite has completed spacecraft-level integration and test activities. This poster presents the details on the CCOR-1 instrument, its integration onto the GOES-U satellite bus, ground system, and operations, as well as the expected performance.

White Light Coronagraph↗