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NASA NTRS2002

Advection from the North Atlantic as the Forcing of Winter Greenhouse Effect Over Europe

In winter, large interannual fluctuations in the surface temperature are observed over central Europe. Comparing warm February 1990 with cold February 1996, a satellite-retrieved surface (skin) temperature difference of 9.8 K is observed for the region 50-60 degrees N; 5-35 degrees E. Previous studies show that advection from the North Atlantic constitutes the forcing to such fluctuations. The advection is quantified by Index I(sub na), the average of the ocean-surface wind speed over the eastern North Atlantic when the direction is from the southwest (when the wind is from another direction, it counts as a zero speed to the average). Average I(sub na) for February 1990 was 10.6 m/s, but for February 1996 I(sub na) was only 2.4 m/s. A large value of I(sub na) means a strong southwesterly flow which brings warm and moist air into central Europe at low level, producing a steeper tropospheric lapse rate. Strong ascending motions at 700 mb are observed in association with the occurrence of enhanced warm, moist advection from the ocean in February 1990 producing clouds and precipitation. Total precipitable water and cloud-cover fraction have larger values in February 1990 than in 1996. The difference in the greenhouse effect between these two scenarios, this reduction in heat loss to space, can be translated into a virtual radiative heating of 2.6 W/square m above the February 1990 surface/atmosphere system, which contributes to a warming of the surface on the order of 2.6 K. Accepting this estimate as quantitatively meaningful, we evaluate the direct effect, the rise in the surface temperature in Europe as a result of maritime-air inflow, as 7.2 K (9.8 K-2.6 K). Thus, fractional reinforcement by the greenhouse effect is 2.6/7.2, or 36%, a substantial positive feedback.

Otterman, J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Dehydration in the Winter Arctic Tropopause Region

Recent work has shown that limited amounts of tropospheric air can penetrate as much as 1 km into the middleworld stratosphere during the arctic winter. This, coupled with temperatures that are cold enough to produce saturation mixing ratios of less than 5 ppmv at the tropopause, results in stratospheric cloud formation and upper tropospheric dehydration. Even though these "cold outbreaks" occupy only a small portion of the area in the arctic (1-2%), their importance is magnified by an order of magnitude because of the air flow through them. This is reinforced by evidence of progressive drying through the winter measured during SOLVE-1. The significance of this process lies in its effect on the upper tropospheric water content of the middle and high latitude tropopause region, which plays an important role in regulating the earth's radiative balance. There appears to be significant year-to-year variability in the incidence of the cold outbreaks. This work has two parts. First, we describe case studies of dehydration taken from the SOLVE and SOLVE2 aircraft sampling missions during the Arctic winters of 2000 and 2003 respectively. Trajectory based microphysical modeling is employed to examine the sensitivity of the dehydration to microphysical parameters and the nature of sub-grid scale temperature fluctuations. We then examine the year-to-year variations in potential dehydration using a trajectory climatology.

Pfister, Leonhard↗
NASA NTRS2001

Advection from the North Atlantic as the Forcing of Winter Greenhouse Effect Over Europe

In winter, large interannual fluctuations in the surface skin temperature are observed over central Europe: we observe a difference of 9.8 K comparing warm February 1990 with cold February 1996 for the region 50-60 degrees N; 5-35 degrees E. Previous studies show that advection from the North Atlantic constitutes the forcing to such fluctuations. The advection is quantified by Index I(sub na), the average of the ocean-surface wind speed over the eastern North Atlantic when the direction is from the southwest (when the wind is from another direction, it counts as a zero speed to the average). Average Ina for February 1990 was 10.6 in s(exp -1), but for February 1996 I(sub na) was only 2.4 m s(exp -1). A large value of I(sub na) means a strong southwesterly flow which brings warm and moist air into Europe at low level, producing a steeper tropospheric lapse rate. Strong ascending motions result, which we observe in February 1990 at 700 mb. The near-surface moisture rises to higher (and cooler) levels, producing clouds and precipitation. Total preciptable water and cloud-cover fraction have larger values in February 1990 than in 1996. The difference in the greenhouse effect between these two scenarios can be translated into a virtual irradiating source of 2.6 W m(exp -2) above the February 1990 atmosphere, which, as an order of magnitude estimate, contributes to the warming of the surface by 2.6 K. If we accept this estimate as numerically pertinent, the direct effect stands as 7.2 K (9.8 K - 2.6 K), and therefore its greenhouse-effect reinforcement is by 36%. This constitutes a substantial positive feedback to the direct effect, which is the inflow of warm air to the low troposphere over Europe.

Otterman, Jay↗
NASA NTRS2001

Effects of Aircraft Wake Dynamics on Measured and Simulated NO(x) and HO(x) Wake Chemistry

High-resolution numerical large-eddy simulations of the near wake of a B757 including simplified NOx and HOx chemistry were performed to explore the effects of dynamics on chemistry in wakes of ages from a few seconds to several minutes. Dilution plays an important basic role in the NOx-O3 chemistry in the wake, while a more interesting interaction between the chemistry and dynamics occurs for the HOx species. These simulation results are compared with published measurements of OH and HO2 within a B757 wake under cruise conditions in the upper troposphere taken during the Subsonic Aircraft Contrail and Cloud Effects Special Study (SUCCESS) mission in May 1996. The simulation provides a much finer grained representation of the chemistry and dynamics of the early wake than is possible from the 1 s data samples taken in situ. The comparison suggests that the previously reported discrepancy of up to a factor of 20 - 50 between the SUCCESS measurements of the [HO2]/[OH] ratio and that predicted by simplified theoretical computations is due to the combined effects of large mixing rates around the wake plume edges and averaging over volumes containing large species fluctuations. The results demonstrate the feasibility of using three-dimensional unsteady large-eddy simulations with coupled chemistry to study such phenomena.

Lewellen, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The 4-5 day mode oscillation in zonal winds of Indian middle atmosphere during MONEX-79

In the early studies based on time series of balloon observations, the existence of 4 to 5 day period waves and 10 to 20 day wind fluctuations were found in the tropical lower stratosphere, and they are identified theoretically as the mixed Rossby-gravity wave and the Kelvin wave, respectively. On the basis of these studies, it was established that the vertically propagating equatorial waves play an important role in producing the QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) in the mean zonal wind through the mechanism of wave-zonal interaction. These studies are mainly concentrated over the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Similar prominent wave disturbances have been observed over the region east of the Indian Ocean during a quasi-biennial oscillation. Zonal winds in upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (10 to 20) km of the middle atmosphere over the Indian subcontinent may bear association with the activity of summer monsoon (June-September). Monsoon Experiment (MONEX-79) has provided upper air observations at Balasore (21 deg. 30 min.N; 85 deg. 56 min.E), during the peak of monsoon months July and August. A unique opportunity has, therefore, been provided to study the normal oscillations present in the zonal winds of lower middle atmosphere over India, which may have implication on large scale wave dynamics. This aspect is examined in the present study.

Reddy, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Multiwavelength Comparison of Modeled and Measured Remote Tropospheric Aerosol Backscatter Over Pacific Ocean

Aerosol concentrations and size distributions in the middle and upper troposphere over the remote Pacific Ocean were measured with a forward scattering spectrometer probe (FSSP) on the NASA DC-8 aircraft during NASA's Global Backscatter Experiment (GLOBE) in May-June 1990. The FSSP size channels were recalibrated based on refractive index estimates from flight-level aerosol volatility measurements with a collocated laser optical particle counter (LOPC). The recalibrated FSSP size distributions were averaged over 100-s intervals, fitted with lo-normal distributions and used to calculate aerosol backscatter coefficients at selected wavelengths. The FSSP-derived backscatter estimates were averaged over 300-s intervals to reduce large random fluctuations. The smoothed FSSP aerosol backscatter coefficients were then compared with LOPC-derived backscatter values and with backscatter measured at or near flight level from four lidar systems operating at 0.53, 1.06, 9.11, 9.25, and 10.59 micrometers. Agreement between FSSP-derived and lidar-measured backscatter was generally best at flight level in homogeneous aerosol fields and at high backscatter values. FSSP data often underestimated low backscatter values especially at the longer wavelengths due to poor counting statistics for larger particles (greater than 0.8 micrometers diameter) that usually dominate aerosol backscatter at these wavelengths. FSSP data also underestimated backscatter at shorter wavelengths when particles smaller than the FSSP lower cutoff diameter (0.35 micrometers) made significant contributions to the total backscatter.

Cutten, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Possibility of measuring gravity-wave momentum flux by single beam observation of MST radar

Vincent and Reid (1983) proposed a technique to measure gravity-wave momentum fluxes in the atmosphere by mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere (MST) radars using two or more radar beams. Since the vertical momentum fluxes are assumed to be due to gravity waves, it appears possible to make use of the dispersion and polarization relations for gravity waves in extracting useful information from the radar data. In particular, for an oblique radar beam, information about both the vertical and the horizontal velocities associated with the waves are contained in the measured Doppler data. Therefore, it should be possible to extract both V sub Z and V sub h from a single beam observational configuration. A procedure is proposed to perform such an analysis. The basic assumptions are: the measured velocity fluctuations are due to gravity waves and a separable model gravity-wave spectrum of the Garrett-Munk type that is statistically homogeneous in the horizontal plane. Analytical expressions can be derived that relate the observed velocity fluctuations to the wave momentum flux at each range gate. In practice, the uncertainties related to the model parameters and measurement accuracy will affect the results. A MST radar configuration is considered.

Liu, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Springtime surface ozone fluctuations at high Arctic latitudes and their possible relationship to atmospheric bromine

At high Arctic stations such as Barrow, Alaska, springtime near-surface ozone amounts fluctuate between the highest and lowest values seen during the course of the year. Episodes when the surface ozone concentration is essentially zero last up to several days during this time of year. In the Arctic Gas and Aerosol Sampling Program (AGASP-I and AGASP-II) in 1983 and 1986, it was found that ozone concentrations often showed a very steep gradient in altitude with very low values near the surface. The cold temperatures, and snow-covered ground make it unlikely that the surface itself would rapidly destroy significant amounts of ozone. The AGASP aircraft measurements that found low ozone concentrations in the lowest layers of the troposphere also found that filterable excess bromine (the amount of bromine in excess of the sea salt component) in samples collected wholly or partially beneath the temperature inversion had higher bromine concentrations than other tropospheric samples. Of the four lowest ozone minimum concentrations, three of them were associated with the highest bromine enrichments. Surface measurements of excess filterable bromine at Barrow show a strong seasonal dependence with values rising dramatically early in March, then declining in May. The concentration of organic bromine gases such as bromoform rise sharply during the winter and then begin to decline after March with winter and early spring values at least three times greater than the summer minimum.

Oltmans, Samuel J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Scale Analysis of Moist Thermodynamics in a Simple Model and the Relationship Between Moisture Modes and Gravity Waves

Observations and theory of convectively-coupled equatorial waves suggest that they can be categorized into two distinct groups. Moisture modes are waves whose thermodynamics are governed by moisture fluctuations. The thermodynamics of the gravity wave group, on the other hand, are rooted in buoyancy (temperature) fluctuations. On the basis of scale analysis it is found that a simple nondimensional parameter –akin to the Rossby number– can explain the processes that lead to the existence of these two groups. This parameter, defined as Nmode, indicates that moisture modes arise when anomalous convection lasts sufficiently long so that dry gravity waves eliminate the temperature anomalies in the convective region, satisfying weak temperature gradient (WTG) balance. This process causes moisture anomalies to dominate the distribution of moist enthalpy (or moist static energy), and hence the evolution of the wave. Conversely, convectively-coupled gravity waves arise when anomalous convection eliminates the moisture anomalies more rapidly than dry gravity waves can adjust the troposphere towards WTG balance, causing temperature to govern the moist enthalpy distribution and evolution. Spectral analysis of reanalysis data indicates that slowly-propagating waves (cp ~ 3 m s-1) are likely to be moisture modes while fast waves (cp ~ 30 m s-1) exhibit gravity wave behavior, with "mixed moisture-gravity" waves existing in between. While these findings are obtained from a highly idealized framework, it is hypothesized that they can be extended to understand simulations of convectively-coupled waves in GCMs and the thermodynamics of more complex phenomena.

Angel F Adames↗
NASA NTRS1993

AASE-2 observations of trace carbon species distributions in the mid to upper troposphere

We report tropospheric (altitudes greater than 5 km) observations of CO2, CO, CH4, and light hydrocarbons (C2-C4) over the latitude range from 90 deg N to 23 deg S recorded onboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the winter 1992 Second Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE-2). Mixing ratios for these species exhibited significant north-south gradients with maximum values in subpolar and arctic regions and minima over the southern tropics. At latitudes greater than 40 deg N, the mixing ratios of most species increased significantly over the course of the 3-month measurement period. Also at high northern latitudes, the variations of all relatively long-lived reactive carbon species were linearly correlated with fluctuations of CO2 with CO, CH4, C2H6, C2H2, C3H8, and n-C4H10 exhibiting average enhancement ratios in terms of ppbv(X)/ppmb(CO2) of 13.8, 8.4, 0.21, 0.075, 0.085, and 0.037, respectively.

Anderson, B. E.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Towards quantifying mesoscale flows in the troposphere using Raman lidar and Sondes

Water vapor plays an important role in the energetics of the boundary layer processes which in turn play a key role in regulating regional and global climate. It plays a primary role in Earth's hydrological cycle, in radiation balance as a direct absorber of infrared radiation, and in atmospheric circulation as a latent heat energy source, as well as in determining cloud development and atmospheric stability. Water vapor concentration, expressed as a mass mixing ratio (g kg(exp -l)), is conserved in all meteorological processes except condensation and evaporation. This property makes it an ideal choice for studying many of the atmosphere's dynamic features. Raman scattering measurements from lidar also allow retrieval of water vapor mixing ratio profiles at high temporal and vertical resolution. Raman lidars sense water vapor to altitudes not achievable with towers and surface systems, sample the atmosphere at much higher temporal resolution than radiosondes or satellites, and do not require strong vertical gradients or turbulent fluctuations in temperature that is required by acoustic sounders and radars. Analysis of highly-resolved water vapor profiles are used here to characterize two important mesoscale flows: thunderstorm outflows and a cold front passage. The data were obtained at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Site (CART) by the groundbased Department of Energy/Sandia National Laboratories lidar (CART Raman lidar or CARL) and Goddard Space Flight Center Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL). A detailed discussion of the SRL and CARL performance during the IOPs is given by others in this meeting.

Demoz, B.↗
NASA NTRS1993

AASE-2 Observations of Trace Carbon Species Distributions in the Mid to Upper Troposphere

We report tropospheric (altitudes greater than 5 km) observations of CO2, CO, CH4, and light hydrocarbons (C2-C4) over the latitude range from 90 deg N to 23 deg S recorded onboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the winter 1992 Second Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE-II). Mixing ratios for these species exhibited significant north-south gradients with maximum values in subpolar and arctic regions and minima over the southern tropics. At latitudes greater than 40 deg N, the mixing ratios of most species increased significantly over the course of the 3-month measurement period. Also at high northern latitudes, the variations of all relatively long-lived reactive carbon species were linearly correlated with fluctuations of CO2 with CO, CH4, C2H6, C2H2, C3H8, and n-C4H10 exhibiting average enhancement ratios in terms of ppbv(X)/ppmv(CO2) of 13.8, 8.4, 0.21, 0.075, 0.085, and 0.037, respectively.

Anderson, B. E.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Use of Satellite-Derived Water Vapor Data to Investigate Northwestward Expansion of North Pacific Subtropical High During 1995 Summer: Westward Propagating Moisture Pattern

The spatial and temporal evolution of the moisture field over the subtropical northwest Pacific during the summer of 1995 is investigated using daily total precipitable water from combined SSM/I-TOVS data and pentad upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) data, in conjunction with NCEP reanalysis data. From analysis of the combined water vapor field, the westward movement of a dry airmass is observed along the 20-30 degrees N latitude zone from near the dateline to the south of Japan throughout the summer of 1995. Extended EOF analysis of total precipitable water reveals that the westward moving pattern takes place in conjunction with an expanding North Pacific subtropical high maintaining an oscillatory component exhibiting a period of some 15-25 days. A concomitant dipole-like oscillating anomalous circulation with approximately a 20-day period between the South China Sea and south of Japan appears to influence the westward expansion of the subtropical high. The analysis also suggests that the fluctuations of the North Pacific high are in response to a local Hadley-type circulation which is induced by westward-moving anomalous convection episodes along 10-20 degrees N.

Sohn, Byung-Ju↗
DOE OSTI2024

The BIRDIES Experiment: Measuring Beryllium Isotopes to Resolve Dynamics in the Stratosphere

Cosmogenic beryllium-10 and beryllium-7, and the ratio of the two (10Be/7Be), are powerful atmospheric tracers of stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) processes; however, measurements are sparse for altitudes well above the tropopause. We present a novel high-altitude balloon campaign aimed to measure these isotopes in the mid-stratosphere called Beryllium Isotopes for Resolving Dynamics in the Stratosphere (BIRDIES). BIRDIES targeted gravity waves produced by tropopause-overshooting convection to study their propagation and impact on STE dynamics, including the production of turbulence in the stratosphere. Two custom-designed payloads called FiSH and GASP were flown at altitudes approaching 30 km to measure in situ turbulence and beryllium isotopes (on aerosols), respectively. These were flown on nine high-altitude balloon flights over Kansas, USA, in summer 2022. The atmospheric samples were augmented with a ground-based rainfall collection targeting isotopic signatures of deep convection overshooting. Our GASP samples yielded mostly negligible amounts of both 10Be and 7Be collected in the mid-stratosphere but led to design improvements to increase aerosol capture in low-pressure environments. Observations from FiSH and the precipitation collection were more fruitful. FiSH showed the presence of turbulent velocity, temperature, and acoustic fluctuations in the stratosphere, including length scales in the infra-sonic range and inertial subrange that indicated times of elevated turbulence. The precipitation collection, and subsequent statistical analysis, showed that large spatial datasets of 10Be/7Be can be measured in individual rainfall events with minimum terrestrial contamination. While the spatial patterns in rainfall suggested some evidence for overshooting convection, inter-event temporal variability was clearly observed and predicted with good agreement using the 3D chemical transport model GEOS-CHEM.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Perspectives on Stratospheric Transport

Long-lived tropospheric source gases, such as nitrous oxide, enter the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause, are transported throughout the stratosphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and are photochemically destroyed in the upper stratosphere. These chemical constituents, or "tracers" can be used to track mixing and transport by the stratospheric winds. Much of our understanding about the stratospheric circulation is based on large scale gradients and other spatial features in tracer fields constructed from satellite measurements. The point of view presented in this paper is different, but complementary, in that transport is described in terms of tracer probability distribution functions (PDFs). The PDF is computed from the measurements, and is proportional to the area occupied by tracer values in a given range. The flavor of this paper is tutorial, and the ideas are illustrated with several examples of transport-related phenomena, annotated with remarks that summarize the main point or suggest new directions. One example shows how the multimodal shape of the PDF gives information about the different branches of the circulation. Another example shows how the statistics of fluctuations from the most probable tracer value give insight into mixing between different regions of the atmosphere. Also included is an analysis of the time-dependence of the PDF during the onset and decline of the winter circulation, and a study of how "bursts" in the circulation are reflected in transient periods of rapid evolution of the PDF. The dependence of the statistics on location and time are also shown to be important for practical problems related to statistical robustness and satellite sampling. The examples illustrate how physically-based statistical analysis can shed some light on aspects of stratospheric transport that may not be obvious or quantifiable with other types of analyses. An important motivation for the work presented here is the need for synthesis of the large and growing database of observations of the atmosphere and the vast quantities of output generated by atmospheric models.

Sparling, L. C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Two Years of Simultaneous K(sub a)-Band Measurements: Goldstone, CA; White Sands, NM; and Guam, USA

In order to statistically characterize the effect of the Earth's atmosphere on Ka-Band links, site test interferometers (STIs) have been deployed at three of NASA s operational sites to directly measure each site's tropospheric phase stability and rain attenuation. These STIs are composed of two antennas on a short baseline (less than 1km) that observe the same unmodulated beacon signal broadcast from a geostationary satellite (e.g., Anik F2). The STIs are used to measure the differential phase between the two received signals as well as the individual signal attenuation at each terminal. There are currently three NASA sites utilizing STIs; the Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex near Barstow, California; the White Sands Complex in Las Cruces, New Mexico; and the Guam Remote Ground Terminal on the island of Guam. The first two sites are both located in desert regions that have highly similar climates in terms of their seasonal temperatures, average humidity, and annual rain fall (the primary factors in determining phase stability). In contrast, Guam is in a tropical region with drastically higher annual rainfall and humidity. Five station years of data have been collected in Goldstone, three in White Sands, and two in Guam, yielding two years of simultaneous data collection across all three sites. During this period of simultaneous data collection, the root-mean-square (RMS) of the time delay fluctuations stayed under 2.40 picoseconds for 90% of the time in Goldstone, under 2.07 picoseconds for 90% of the time in White Sands, and under 10.13 picoseconds for 90% of the time in Guam. For the 99th percentile, the statistics were 6.32 ps, 6.03 ps, and 24.85 ps, respectively. These values, as well as various other site quality characteristics, will be used to determine the suitability of these sites for NASA s future communication services at Ka-Band.

Acosta, Roberto J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Environmental Characteristics of Convective Systems During TRMM-LBA

In this paper, data collected from 51 days of continual upper atmospheric soundings and TOGA radar at ABRACOS Hill during the TRMM-LBA experiment are used to describe the mean thermodynamic and kinematic airmass properties of wet season convection over Rondonia, Brazil. Distinct multi-day easterly and westerly lower tropospheric wind regimes occurred during the campaign with contrasting airmass characteristics. Westerly wind periods featured modest CAPE (1000 J/kg), moist conditions (>90% RH) extending through 700 mb and shallow (900 mb) speed shear on the order of 10(exp -4)/s. This combination of characteristics promoted convective systems that featured a relatively large fraction of stratiform rainfall and weak convection nearly devoid of lightning. The environment is very similar to the general airmass conditions experienced during the Darwin, Australia monsoon convective regime. In contrast, easterly regime convective systems were more strongly electrified and featured larger convective rain rates and reduced stratiform rainfall fraction. These systems formed in an environment with significantly larger CAPE (1500 J/kg), drier lower and middle level humidities (< 80% RH) and a wind shear layer that was both stronger (10(exp -3)/s) and deeper (700 mb). The larger CAPE resulted from strong insolation under relatively cloud-free skies (owing to reduced column humidity) and was also weakly capped in the lowest 1-2 km, thus contributing to a more explosive growth of convection. The time series of low- and mid-level averaged humidity exhibited marked variability between westerly and easterly regimes and was characterized by low frequency (i.e., multi-day to weekly) oscillations. The synoptic scale origins of these moisture fluctuations are examined, which include the effects of variable low-level airmass trajectories and upper-level, westward migrating cyclonic vortices. The results reported herein provide an environmental context for ongoing dual Doppler analyses and numerical modeling case studies of individual TRMM-LBA convective systems.

Halverson, Jeffrey B.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate: A Workshop Report

Solar irradiance, the flux of the Sun s output directed toward Earth, is Earth s main energy source.1 The Sun itself varies on several timescales over billions of years its luminosity increases as it evolves on the main sequence toward becoming a red giant; about every 11 years its sunspot activity cycles; and within just minutes flares can erupt and release massive amounts of energy. Most of the fluctuations from tens to thousands of years are associated with changes in the solar magnetic field. The focus of the National Research Council's September 2011 workshop on solar variability and Earth's climate, and of this summary report, is mainly magnetically driven variability and its possible connection with Earth's climate variations in the past 10,000 years. Even small variations in the amount or distribution of energy received at Earth can have a major influence on Earth's climate when they persist for decades. However, no satellite measurements have indicated that solar output and variability have contributed in a significant way to the increase in global mean temperature in the last 50 years. Locally, however, correlations between solar activity and variations in average weather may stand out beyond the global trend; such has been argued to be the case for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, even in the present day. A key area of inquiry deals with establishing a unified record of the solar output and solar-modified particles that extends from the present to the prescientific past. The workshop focused attention on the need for a better understanding of the links between indices of solar activity such as cosmogenic isotopes and solar irradiance. A number of presentations focused on the timescale of the solar cycle and of the satellite record, and on the problem of extending this record back in time. Highlights included a report of progress on pyroheliometer calibration, leading to greater confidence in the time history and future stability of total solar irradiance (TSI), and surprising results on changes in spectral irradiance over the last solar cycle, which elicited spirited discussion. New perspectives on connections between features of the quiet and active areas of the photosphere and variations in TSI were also presented, emphasizing the importance of developing better understanding in order to extrapolate back in time using activity indices. Workshop participants reviews highlighted difficulties as well as causes for optimism in current understanding of the cosmogenic isotope record and the use of observed variability in Sun-like stars in reconstructing variations in TSI occurring on lower frequencies than the sunspot cycle. The workshop succeeded in bringing together informed, focused presentations on major drivers of the Sun-climate connection. The importance of the solar cycle as a unique quasi-periodic probe of climate responses on a timescale between the seasonal and Milankovitch cycles was recognized in several presentations. The signal need only be detectable, not dominant, for it to play this role of a useful probe. Some workshop participants also found encouraging progress in the top-down perspective, according to which solar variability affects surface climate by first perturbing the stratosphere, which then forces the troposphere and surface. This work is now informing and being informed by research on tropospheric responses to the Antarctic ozone hole and volcanic aerosols. In contrast to the top-down perspective is the bottom-up view that the interaction of solar energy with the ocean and surface leads to changes in dynamics and temperature. During the discussion of how dynamical air-sea coupling in the tropical Pacific and solar variability interact from a bottom-up perspective, several participants remarked on the wealth of open research questions in the dynamics of the climatic response to TSI and spectral variability. The discussion of the paleoclimate record emphasized that the link between solar varbility and Earth s climate is multifaceted and that some components are understood better than others. According to two presenters on paleoclimate, there is a need to study the idiosyncrasies of each key proxy record. Yet they also emphasized that there may be an emerging pattern of paleoclimate change coincident with periods of solar activity and inactivity, but only on long timescales of multiple decades to millennia. Several speakers discussed the effects of particle events and cosmic-ray variability. These are all areas of exciting fundamental research; however, they have not yet led to conclusive evidence for significant related climate effects. The key problem of attribution of climate variability on the timescales of the Little Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum were directly addressed in several presentations. Several workshop participants remarked that the combination of solar, paleoclimatic, and climate modeling research has the potential to dramatically improve the credibility of these attribution studies.

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