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NASA NTRS2000

Satellite Mapping of the Earth's Ozone and Sulfur Dioxide

The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instruments are spatially-scanning UV spectrometers that have produced daily global images of total ozone over the last 21 years since the launch of the Nimbus 7 satellite. The instruments use a total ozone retrieval algorithm pioneered by J.V. Dave and C. L. Mateer for the Nimbus 4 Backscatter Ultraviolet (BUV) instrument, designed by D.F. Heath. The TOMS ozone maps have revealed the relations between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics, and shown the dramatic losses of ozone in the Antarctic ozone hole and the Northern hemisphere. The accepted long-term trends in global, regional, and local ozone are derived from data from the Nimbus 7 TOMS and three successive TOMS flights on Russian, Japanese, and American satellites. The next TOMS flight will be launched in 2000. The contiguous mapping design and fortuitous choice of TOMS wavelengths bands also permitted imaging of a second atmospheric gas, sulfur dioxide, which is transient due to its short lifetime. The importance of this measurement was first realized after the eruption of El Chichon volcano in 1982. The extreme range of sizes of volcanic eruptions and the associated danger require observations from a distant observing platform. The first quantitative time series of the input of sulfur dioxide by explosive volcanic eruptions into the atmosphere thus was developed from the TOMS missions. Finally, the Rayleigh and aerosol scattering spectral characteristic and reflectivity complete the four dominant pieces of information in the near UV albedo of the Earth. The four parameters are derived with a linear algorithm, the absorption coefficients of the gases, and effective paths computed from radiative transfer tables. Absorbing aerosol clouds (smoke, dust, volcanic ash) are readily identified by their deviation from a Rayleigh signature. The greatest shortcoming of the TOMS dataset is the 24 hour time resolution that is produced by the polar orbit of the satellite. Dynamic phenomena, such as upper air fronts that modulate total ozone and volcanic eruptions of sulfur dioxide and ash, cannot be adequately resolved. It is hoped that UV observations from geostationary satellites will soon be made to test the value of this unique information in weather forecasting and aviation safety.

Krueger, Arlin↗
NASA NTRS2001

Satellite Retrieval of Atmospheric Water Budget over Gulf of Mexico- Caribbean Basin: Seasonal Variability

This study presents results from a multi-satellite/multi-sensor retrieval system designed to obtain the atmospheric water budget over the open ocean. A combination of hourly-sampled monthly datasets derived from the GOES-8 5 Imager and the DMSP 7-channel passive microwave radiometer (SSM/I) have been acquired for the Gulf of Mexico-Caribbean Sea basin. Whereas the methodology is being tested over this basin, the retrieval system is designed for portability to any open-ocean region. Algorithm modules using the different datasets to retrieve individual geophysical parameters needed in the water budget equation are designed in a manner that takes advantage of the high temporal resolution of the GOES-8 measurements, as well as the physical relationships inherent to the SSM/I passive microwave signals in conjunction with water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rainfall. The methodology consists of retrieving the precipitation, surface evaporation, and vapor-cloud water storage terms in the atmospheric water balance equation from satellite techniques, with the water vapor advection term being obtained as the residue needed for balance. Thus, we have sought to develop a purely satellite-based method for obtaining the full set of terms in the atmospheric water budget equation without requiring in situ sounding information on the wind profile. The algorithm is partly validated by first cross-checking all the algorithm components through multiple-algorithm retrieval intercomparisons. More fundamental validation is obtained by directly comparing water vapor transports into the targeted basin diagnosed from the satellite algorithm to those obtained observationally from a network of land-based upper air stations that nearly uniformly surround the basin. Total columnar atmospheric water budget results will be presented for an extended annual cycle consisting of the months of October-97, January-98, April-98, July-98, October-98, and January-1999. These results are used to emphasize the changing relationship in E-P, as well as in the varying roles of storage and advection in balancing E-P both on daily and monthly time scales and on localized and basin space scales. Results from the algorithm-to-algorithm intercomparisons will also be presented in the context of sensitivity testing to help understand the intrinsic uncertainties in the water budget terms.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Study of Heavy Precipitation Events in Taiwan During 10-13 August, 1994: Mesoscale Model Simulations - Part 2

Several heavy precipitation episodes occurred over Taiwan from August 10 to 13, 1994. Precipitation patterns and characteristics are quite different between the precipitation events that occurred from August 10 and I I and from August 12 and 13. In Part I (Chen et al. 2001), the environmental situation and precipitation characteristics are analyzed using the EC/TOGA data, ground-based radar data, surface rainfall patterns, surface wind data, and upper air soundings. In this study (Part II), the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to study the precipitation characteristics of these heavy precipitation events. Various physical processes (schemes) developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (i.e., cloud microphysics scheme, radiative transfer model, and land-soil-vegetation surface model) have recently implemented into the MM5. These physical packages are described in the paper, Two way interactive nested grids are used with horizontal resolutions of 45, 15 and 5 km. The model results indicated that Cloud physics, land surface and radiation processes generally do not change the location (horizontal distribution) of heavy precipitation. The Goddard 3-class ice scheme produced more rainfall than the 2-class scheme. The Goddard multi-broad-band radiative transfer model reduced precipitation compared to a one-broad band (emissivity) radiation model. The Goddard land-soil-vegetation surface model also reduce the rainfall compared to a simple surface model in which the surface temperature is computed from a Surface energy budget following the "force-re store" method. However, model runs including all Goddard physical processes enhanced precipitation significantly for both cases. The results from these runs are in better agreement with observations. Despite improved simulations using different physical schemes, there are still some deficiencies in the model simulations. Some potential problems are discussed. Sensitivity tests (removing either terrain or radiative processes) are performed to identify the physical processes that determine the precipitation patterns and characteristics for heavy rainfall events. These sensitivity tests indicated that terrain can play a major role in determining the exact location for both precipitation events. The terrain can also play a major role in determining the intensity of precipitation for both events. However, it has a large impact on one event but a smaller one on the other. The radiative processes are also important for determining, the precipitation patterns for one case but. not the other. The radiative processes can also effect the total rainfall for both cases to different extents.

Tao, Wei Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2001

A study of heavy precipitation events in Taiwan during 10-13 August, 1994: mesoscale model simulations

Heavy rainfall occurred over the western side of Taiwan's complex terrain from August 10 to 13, 1994 after Typhoon Doug moved northward from the East China Sea into Taiwan and on towards the Yellow Sea. On August 10, most of the rainfall fell over sloped areas. The heaviest daily rainfall totals were in excess of 200 mm over southwestern as well as central Taiwan. However, not much rainfall occurred over northern Taiwan. The lack of rainfall over northern Taiwan also occurred on August 11, 12 and 13. The larger rainfall amounts shifted westward from the sloped areas on August 10 toward lower terrain on August 11. On August 12 and 13, most of the higher rainfall amounts were found over the coastal area in southwestern Taiwan. Notably, about 300 to 400 mm per day fell over the coastal area in southwest Taiwan on August 12 and 13. The distribution of rainfall amount was different on August 10 and 11 (termed as Case 1) compared to August 12 and 13 (termed as Case 2). The environmental situation and precipitation characteristics are analyzed using EC/TOGA data, ground-based radar data, surface rainfall patterns, surface wind data, and upper air soundings. Chen at al. (2001) also categorized the precipitation pattern into two types, propagating and quasi-stationary. For the propagating type of precipitation, rainrates increased or remained the same as systems went from the plains to mountainous regions. With the quasi-stationary type of precipitation, however, rainrates decreased as precipitation propagated across the plains and into the mountains. The focus of this study is to understand what causes the h1aher amounts of rainfall over Taiwan, and what factors influence where the higher amounts of rainfall will occur, over sloped areas or over coastal areas.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Convective Systems Over the South China Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convective storms and air pattern changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided rainfall estimates which allows for comparisons with those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a low earth orbit satellite designed to measure rainfall from space. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1-km grid size) is used to understand and quantify the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over the South China Sea. This is the first (loud-resolving model used to simulate precipitation processes in this particular region. The GCE-model results captured many of the observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the temporal variation of the simulated rainfall compares quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall variation. The time and domain-averaged temperature (heating/cooling) and water vapor (drying/ moistening) budgets are in good agreement with observations. The GCE-model-simulated rainfall amount also agrees well with TRMM rainfall data. The results show there is more evaporation from the ocean surface prior to the onset of the monsoon than after the on-~et of monsoon when rainfall increases. Forcing due to net radiation (solar heating minus longwave cooling) is responsible for about 25% of the precipitation in SCSMEX The transfer of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere does not contribute significantly to the rainfall in SCSMEX. Model sensitivity tests indicated that total rain production is reduced 17-18% in runs neglecting the ice phase. The SCSMEX results are compared to other GCE-model-simulated weather systems that developed during other field campaigns (i.e., west Pacific warm pool region, eastern Atlantic region and central USA). Large-scale forcing vie temperature and water vapor tendency, is the major energy source for net condensation in the tropical cases. The effects of large-scale cooling exceed that of large-scale moistening in the west pacific warm pool region and eastern Atlantic region. For SCSMEX, however, the effects of large-scale moistening predominate. Net radiation and sensible and latent hc,it fluxes play a much more important role in the central USA.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2002

Stratospheric Analysis and Forecasting in the Northern Winter of 1999/2000: The NASA DAO's GEOS-3 System

An evaluation is presented of the performance in the northern winter 1999/2000 of the GEOS-3 troposphere-stratosphere data assimilation system (DAS). The impacts of the two main input data types are assessed: upper-air soundings (sondes) provide wind and temperature information and satellite-based (Tiros Operational Vertical Sounders: TOVS) give estimates of the thermal structure. It is shown that in the low stratosphere (300-70hPa) the analyses are generally slightly warmer than the sonde data, but colder than the TOVS data; this relationship reverses between 70 and 10 hPa. There are geographical biases, related to the spatial and temporal coverage of the observation types and to the statistical weights assigned to them in the DAS. Forecasts show a tendency to reduce zonal asymmetries in the atmospheric flow and to suppress stratospheric temperature minima. In the DAS, the analysis increments compensate for this, but it leads to important biases in the multi-day forecasts. The analysis increments are as large as the diabatic forcing in the lower polar stratosphere, indicating a substantial model bias. The results provide important insights into the roles of different data types and the circulation model in producing accurate analyses for studies of polar chemistry and physical processes.

Pawson, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2002

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional scale model (with grid size of 20 km) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1 km grid size) are used to perform multi-day integration to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during SCSMEX Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, sea surface temperature (SST) variations, and cloud processes are performed to understand the precipitation processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. Cloud processes can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. The GCE-model results captured many observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the model simulated rainfall temporal variation compared quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall. The results show there are more latent heat fluxes prior to the onset of the monsoon. However, more rainfall was simulated after the onset of the monsoon. This modeling study indicates the latent heat fluxes (or evaporation) have more of an impact on precipitation processes and rainfall in the regional climate model simulations than in the cloud-resolving model simulations. Research is underway to determine if the difference in the grid sizes or the moist processes used in these two models is responsible for the differing influence of surface fluxes an precipitation processes.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Global Reference Atmospheric Model and Trace Constituents

Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM-99) is an engineering-level model of the Earth's atmosphere. It provides both mean values and perturbations for density, temperature, pressure, and winds, as well as monthly- and geographically-varying trace constituent concentrations. From 0-27 km, thermodynamics and winds are based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) climatology. Above 120 km, GRAM is based on the NASA Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET) model. In the intervening altitude region, GRAM is based on Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP) climatology that also forms the basis of the 1986 COSPAR Intemationa1 Reference Atmosphere (CIRA). MAP data in GRAM are augmented by a specially-derived longitude variation climatology. Atmospheric composition is represented in GRAM by concentrations of both major and minor species. Above 120 km, MET provides concentration values for N2, O2, Ar, O, He, and H. Below 120 km, species represented also include H2O, O3, N2O, CO, CH, and CO2. Water vapor in GRAM is based on a combination of GUACA, Air Force Geophysics Laboratory (AFGL), and NASA Langley Research Center climatologies. Other constituents below 120 km are based on a combination of AFGL and h4AP/CIRA climatologies. This report presents results of comparisons between GRAM Constituent concentrations and those provided by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) climatology of Summers (NRL,/MR/7641-93-7416, 1993). GRAM and NRL concentrations were compared for seven species (CH4, CO, CO2, H2O, N2O, O2, and O3) for months January, April, July, and October, over height range 0-115 km, and latitudes -90deg to + 90deg at 10deg increments. Average GRAM-NRL correlations range from 0.878 (for CO) to 0.975 (for O3), with an average over all seven species of 0.936 (standard deviation 0.049).

Justus, C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Convective Systems Over the Japan Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Wintertime observations of MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems) over the Sea of Japan - 2001 (WMO-01) were collected from January 12 to February 1, 2001. One of the major objectives is to better understand and forecast snow systems and accompanying disturbances and the associated key physical processes involved in the formation and development of these disturbances. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during WMO-01 provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convective storms and air pattern changes associated with winter storms over the Sea of Japan region. WMO-01 also provided estimates of the apparent heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2). The vertical integrals of Q1 and Q2 are equal to the surface precipitation rates. The horizontal and vertical adjective components of Q1 and Q2 can be used as large-scale forcing for the Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM (typically run with a 1-km grid size). The GCE model has sophisticated microphysics and allows explicit interactions between clouds, radiation, and surface processes. It will be used to understand and quantify precipitation processes associated with wintertime convective systems over the Sea of Japan (using data collected during the WMO-01). This is the first cloud-resolving model used to simulate precipitation processes in this particular region. The GCE model-simulated WMO-01 results will also be compared to other GCE model-simulated weather systems that developed during other field campaigns (i.e., South China Sea, west Pacific warm pool region, eastern Atlantic region and central USA).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2003

Use of MODIS Land and Sea Surface Temperatures to Initialize Mesoscale Models

As computer power continues to increase, mesoscale models are initialized at all hours of the day and continue to be run at higher and higher spatial resolutions. As a result, initializing land surface temperature can be problematic. The majority of research-based models are initialized at 00 and 12 UTC when upper air observations and reanalysis fields are available. The landsea surface temperatures are then set equal to the two-meter air temperature produced by the preprocessor analysis system. This particular procedure might be valid in the early morning hours just prior to sunrise, but it becomes less valid during the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Operational models, such as the Rapid Update Cycle run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), are initialized every hour on a daily basis. This presents a unique challenge to the initial specification of the land temperature, especially during the first several hours of the solar heating cycle when land and overlying air temperatures are far from being the same. Another issue that needs to be addressed is the spatial variability of land surface temperature. By early next year, the NCEP operational Eta model will be employed at 8 km resolution. Methods to accurately specify the initial land surface temperature at such high resolution need to be explored. This paper presents the results of using data from the NASA Moderate Imaging Sensor aboard the TERRA Satellite to initialize land and sea surface temperatures within the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) 5'th generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). We have simulated a northern Gulf Coast sea breeze case to demonstrate the utility of using the MODIS data to initialize both the land and sea surface temperature fields. Model grid configurations of 12-, 4-, and l-km are employed.

Arnold, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Range Commanders Council Meteorology Group 88th Meeting: NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Task Report, 2004

Supported Return-to-Flight activities by providing surface climate data from Kennedy Space Center used primarily for ice and dew formation studies, and upper air wind analysis primarily used for ascent loads analyses. The MSFC Environments Group's Terrestrial and Planetary Environments Team documented Space Shuttle day-of-launch support activities by publishing a document in support of SSP Return-to-Flight activities entitled "Space Shuttle Program Flight Operations Support". The team also formalized the Shuttle Natural Environments Technical Panel and chaired the first special session of the SSP Natural Environments Panel meeting at KSC, November 4-7,2003.58 participants from NASA, DOD and other government agencies from across the country attended the meeting.

Roberts, Barry C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Earth GRAM-99 and Trace Constituents

Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM-99) is an engineering-level model of Earth's atmosphere. It provides both mean values and perturbations for density, temperature, pressure, and winds, as well as monthly- and geographically-varying trace constituent concentrations. From 0-27 km, GRAM thermodynamics and winds are based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) climatology. Above 120 km, GRAM is based on the NASA Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET) model. In the intervening altitude region, GRAM is based on Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP) climatology that also forms the basis of the 1986 COSPAR International Reference Atmosphere (CIRA). Atmospheric composition is represented in GRAM by concentrations of both major and minor species. Above 120 km, MET provides concentration values for N2, O2, Ar, O, He, and H. Below 120 km, species represented also include H2O, O3, N2O, CO, CH4, and CO2. At COSPAR 2002 a comparison was made between GRAM constituents below 120 km and those provided by Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) climatology. No current need to update GRAM constituent climatology in that height range was identified. This report examines GRAM (MET) constituents between 100 and 1000 km altitudes. Discrepancies are noted between GRAM (MET) constituent number densities and mass density or molecular weight. Near 110 km altitude, there is up to about 25% discrepancy between MET number density and mass density (with mass density being valid and number densities requiring adjustment). Near 700 km altitude there is also up to about 25% discrepancy between MET number density and mean molecular weight (with molecular weight requiring adjustment). In neither case are MET mass density estimates invalidated. These discrepancies have been traced to MET subroutines SLV (which affects 90-170 km height range) and SLVH (which affects helium above 440 km altitude). With these discrepancies corrected, results are presented to illustrate GRAM (MET) constituent mole fractions in terms of height-latitude cross sections from 100 to 1000 km altitude, and latitude-longitude 'maps' at 450 km (approximate height of International Space Station). Plans are discussed for an update of MET (and GRAM) to correct these constituent inconsistencies and to incorporate several new thermospheric model features.

Justus, C. G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Review of Solar-Powered Aircraft Flight Activity at the Pacific Missile Range Test Facility, Kauai, Hawaii

A series of solar-powered aircraft have been designed and operated by AeroVironment, Inc. (Monrovia, CA) as a part of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) objectives to develop energy-efficient high-altitude long-endurance platforms for earth observations and communications applications. Flight operations have been conducted at NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards CA and at the U.S. Navy Pacific Missile Range Facility (PMRF) at Barking Sands, Kauai, HI. These aircraft flown at PMRF are named Pathfinder , Pathfinder Plus and Helios . Sizes of these three aircraft range from 560 lb with a 99-ft wingspan to 2300 lb with a 247-ft wingspan. Available payload capacity reaches approximately 200 lb. Pathfinder uses six engines and propellers: Pathfinder Plus 8; and Helios 14. The 2003 Helios fuel cell configurations used 10 engines and propellers. The PMRF was selected as a base of operations because if offers optimal summertime solar exposure, low prevailing wind-speeds on the runway, modest upper-air wind-speeds and the availability of suitable airspace. Between 1997 and 2001, successive altitude records of 71,530 ft, 80,200 ft, and 96,863 ft were established. Flight durations extended to 18 hours.

Ehernberger, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Use of GOES, SSM/I, TRMM Satellite Measurements Estimating Water Budget Variations in Gulf of Mexico - Caribbean Sea Basins

This study presents results from a multi-satellite/multi-sensor retrieval system designed to obtain the atmospheric water budget over the open ocean. A combination of 3ourly-sampled monthly datasets derived from the GOES-8 5-channel Imager, the TRMM TMI radiometer, and the DMSP 7-channel passive microwave radiometers (SSM/I) have been acquired for the combined Gulf of Mexico-Caribbean Sea basin. Whereas the methodology has been tested over this basin, the retrieval system is designed for portability to any open-ocean region. Algorithm modules using the different datasets to retrieve individual geophysical parameters needed in the water budget equation are designed in a manner that takes advantage of the high temporal resolution of the GOES-8 measurements, as well as the physical relationships inherent to the TRMM and SSM/I passive microwave measurements in conjunction with water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rainfall. The methodology consists of retrieving the precipitation, surface evaporation, and vapor-cloud water storage terms in the atmospheric water balance equation from satellite techniques, with the water vapor advection term being obtained as the residue needed for balance. Thus, the intent is to develop a purely satellite-based method for obtaining the full set of terms in the atmospheric water budget equation without requiring in situ sounding information on the wind profile. The algorithm is validated by cross-checking all the algorithm components through multiple- algorithm retrieval intercomparisons. A further check on the validation is obtained by directly comparing water vapor transports into the targeted basin diagnosed from the satellite algorithms to those obtained observationally from a network of land-based upper air stations that nearly uniformly surround the basin, although it is fair to say that these checks are more effective m identifying problems in estimating vapor transports from a leaky operational radiosonde network than in verifying the transport estimates determined from the satellite algorithm system Total columnar atmospheric water budget results are presented for an extended annual cycle consisting of the months of October-97, January-98, April-98, July-98,October-98, and January 1999. These results are used to emphasize the changing relationship in E-P, as well as in the varying roles of storage and advection in balancing E-P both on daily and monthly time scales and on localized and basin space scales. Results from the algorithm-to-algorithm intercomparisons are also presented in the context of sensitivity testing to help understand the intrinsic uncertainties in evaluating the water budget terms by an all-satellite algorithm approach.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

Bauman, William H., III↗
NASA NTRS2006

Monthly-Diurnal Water Budget Variability Over Gulf of Mexico-Caribbean Sea Basin from Satellite Observations

This study presents results from a multi-satellite/multi-sensor retrieval system design d to obtain the atmospheric water budget over the open ocean. A combination of hourly-sampled monthly datasets derived from the GOES-8 5-channel Imager, the TRMM TMI radiometer, and the DMSP 7-channel passive microwave radiometers (SSM/I) have been acquired for the combined Gulf of Mexico-Caribbean Sea basin. Whereas the methodology has been tested over this basin, the retrieval system is designed for portability to any open-ocean region. Algorithm modules using the different datasets to retrieve individual geophysical parameters needed in the water budget equation are designed in a manner that takes advantage of the high temporal resolution of the GOES-8 measurements, as well as the physical relationships inherent to the TRMM and SSM/I passive microwave measurements in conjunction with water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rainfall. The methodology consists of retrieving the precipitation, surface evaporation, and vapor-cloud water storage terms in the atmospheric water balance equation from satellite techniques, with the water vapor advection term being obtained as the residue needed for balance. Thus, the intent is to develop a purely satellite-based method for obtaining the full set of terms in the atmospheric water budget equation without requiring in situ sounding information on the wind profile. The algorithm is validated by cross-checking all the algorithm components through multiple-algorithm retrieval intercomparisons. A further check on the validation is obtained by directly comparing water vapor transports into the targeted basin diagnosed from the satellite algorithms to those obtained observationally from a network of land-based upper air stations that nearly uniformly surround the basin, although it is fair to say that these checks are more effective in identifying problems in estimating vapor transports from a "leaky" operational radiosonde network than in verifying the transport estimates determined from the satellite algorithm system. Total columnar atmospheric water budget results are presented for an extended annual cycle consisting of the months of October-97, January-98, April-98, July-98,October-98, and January- 1999. These results are used to emphasize the changing relationship in E-P, as well as in the varying roles of storage and advection in balancing E-P both on daily and monthly time scales and on localized and basin space scales. Results from the algorithm-to-algorithm intercomparisons are also presented in the context of sensitivity testing to help understand the intrinsic uncertainties in evaluating the water budget terms by an all-satellite algorithm approach.

Smith, E. A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Analysis of Acoustic Modeling and Sound Propagation in Aircraft Noise Prediction

An analysis has been performed of measured and predicted aircraft noise levels around Denver International Airport. A detailed examination was made of 90 straight-out departures that yielded good measurements on multiple monitors. Predictions were made with INM 5, INM 6 and the simulation model NMSIM. Predictions were consistently lower than measurements, less so for the simulation model than for the integrated models. Lateral directivity ("installation effect") patterns were seen which are consistent with other recent measurements. Atmospheric absorption was determined to be a significant factor in the underprediction. Calculations of atmospheric attenuation were made over a full year of upper air data at seven locations across the United States. It was found that temperature/humidity effects could cause variations of up to +/-4 dB, depending on season, for the sites examined. It was concluded that local temperature and humidity should be accounted for in aircraft noise modeling.

Plotkin, Kenneth J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

An Overview of Climatic Elements

This Technical Publication (TP) addresses some climatic elements with emphasis on atmospheric composition, including gas radiative characteristics. Solar radiation is discussed with considerable information on the mathematical and statistical formulae. On a worldwide basis, temperature and precipitation for the globe are discussed along with interaction in drought. Also included is the simultaneous interaction with winds, humidity, and solar radiation. Volcanology gets minimum treatment. The oceans and seas are treated in chart form along with the interrelationship of oceanic currents and El Nino and La Nina, and ENSO phenomena. Upper air circulations are discussed. Various cloud formations up to 85-95 km altitude are described. Information on tornadoes and hurricanes is also included. One section is devoted to the climate physical-chemical elements. A short discussion is given on the importance for the quality of data and/or information in descriptions of the climate. This TP presents only an overview or survey of these and other various climatic elements.

Crutcher, H. L.↗