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At least 163 records · Page 9

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Calibration with the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe Using Cross-Correlations

We present a new calibration method based on cross-correlations with the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) and apply it to data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). ACT's observing strategy and mapmaking procedure allows an unbiased reconstruction of the modes in the maps over a wide range of multipoles. By directly matching the ACT maps to WMAP observations in the multipole range of 400 < I < 1000, we determine the absolute calibration with an uncertainty of 2% in temperature. The precise measurement of the calibration error directly impacts the uncertainties in the cosmological parameters estimated from the ACT power spectra. We also present a combined map based on ACT and WMAP data that has a high signal-to-noise ratio over a wide range of multipoles.

Hajian, Amir↗

Evaluation of a Regional Crop Model Implementation for Sub-National Yield Assessments in Kenya

CONTEXT: Cropping system models can be used to both assess regional food security and to monitor and predict agricultural drought. Agriculture in Kenya is extremely important to both the economy and food security of the country. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated a regional implementation of a widely used crop model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), within a coupled modeling framework, the Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS), over Kenya. The goal of this study was to assess the ability of RHEAS to simulate the annual variability of maize yields at the county level and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the model and inputs. METHODS: The RHEAS system implements a stochastic ensemble approach to account for field scale variabilities in crop management practices and underlying soil and weather conditions. Satellite-derived datasets were used to evaluate the land surface component of the system and seasonally disaggregated yield for 5 years was used to assess the performance of the cropping system model. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The median correlation between RHEAS and satellite-derived soil moisture and evapotranspiration estimates were 0.78, and 0.51, respectively, indicating that the model is able to capture the key drivers of the hydrological budget. Overall, RHEAS simulated yearly yield variations with a median correlation of 0.7 with reported yields, with the best performance in the short rains season. However, across both seasons, the RHEAS model was positively biased on the order of ~1.6 MT/ha. The overall median unbiased RMSE was 0.66 MT/ha. The RHEAS system shows skill at simulating extreme departures in anomalies, and a majority of the time (62.5%) the reported yields fall within the interquartile range of the simulations. SIGNIFICANCE: One of the most important areas of improvement for the next generation of agricultural data and models is to better understand and communicate the inherent uncertainties. This is especially critical in data-limited regions. Here we present a modeling system and its implementation that begins to address these concerns. We demonstrate the ability to simulate broad trends in yields at the county level for sub-annual yields with skills that commensurate previous national/annual level studies.

Crop model↗

Multi-Model Monte Carlo Estimators for Trajectory Simulation

Predicting landing radius and other quantities of interest (QoI) for entry, descent, andlanding (EDL) applications requires a viable uncertainty propagation method for quantifying the impact of uncertainties in aerodynamics, atmosphere, mass properties, etc. While standard Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is the de facto standard for producing robust and unbiasedstatistical estimators, it is often infeasible for expensive, high-fidelity models. Low-fidelity models are commonly constructed to replace the high-fidelity model in MC simulation for computational speedup, but at the expense of accuracy and unbiasedness. Emerging multi-model MC methods are bridging this gap by combining predictions from two or more modelsof varying fidelity and computational cost for efficient and unbiased uncertainty propagation.This works establishes a proof of concept for using multi-model MC to increase the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. It is shown that combining a high-fidelity EDL model with low-fidelity models (e.g., data-driven, reduced physics) in this manner has the potential to yield significant efficiency and accuracy gains for certain EDL QoIs versusa standard MC approach. Moreover, the unbiasedness of multi-model MC predictions ishighlighted by showing increased accuracy versus an approach that leverages a low-fidelity model alone.

James E Warner↗

Cluster Masses Derived from X-ray and Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect Measurements

We infer the gas mass and total gravitational mass of 11 clusters using two different methods; analysis of X-ray data from the Chandra X-ray Observatory and analysis of centimeter-wave Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect (SZE) data from the BIMA and OVRO interferometers. This flux-limited sample of clusters from the BCS cluster catalogue was chosen so as to be well above the surface brightness limit of the ROSAT All Sky Survey; this is therefore an orientation unbiased sample. The gas mass fraction, f_g, is calculated for each cluster using both X-ray and SZE data, and the results are compared at a fiducial radius of r_500. Comparison of the X-ray and SZE results for this orientation unbiased sample allows us to constrain cluster systematics, such as clumping of the intracluster medium. We derive an upper limit on Omega_M assuming that the mass composition of clusters within r_500 reflects the universal mass composition Omega_M h_100 is greater than Omega _B / f-g. We also demonstrate how the mean f_g derived from the sample can be used to estimate the masses of clusters discovered by upcoming deep SZE surveys.

Laroque, S.↗

Complete Hard X-Ray Surveys, AGN Luminosity Functions and the X-Ray Background

AGN are believed to make up most of the Cosmic X-Ray Background (CXB) above a few keV, but this background cannot be fully resolved at energies less than 10 keV due to absorption. The Swift/BAT and INTEGRAL missions are performing the first complete hard x-ray surveys with minimal bias due to absorption. The most recent results for both missions will be presented. Although the fraction of the CXB resolved by these surveys is small, it is possible to derive unbiased number counts and luminosity functions for AGN in the local universe. The survey energy range from 15-150 keV contains the important reflection and cutoff spectral features dominate the shape of the AGN contribution to the CXB. Average spectral characteristics of survey detected AGN will be presented and compared with model distributions. The numbers of hard x-ray blazars detected in these surveys are finally sufficient to estimate this important component's contribution the cosmic background. Constraints on CXB models and their significance will be discussed.

Tueller, Jack↗

Histogrammatic Method for Determining Relative Abundance of Input Gas Pulse

To satisfy the Major Constituents Analysis (MCA) requirements for the Vehicle Cabin Atmosphere Monitor (VCAM), this software analyzes the relative abundance ratios for N2, O2, Ar, and CO2 as a function of time and constructs their best-estimate mean. A histogram is first built of all abundance ratios for each of the species vs time. The abundance peaks corresponding to the intended measurement and any obfuscating background are then separated via standard peak-finding techniques in histogram space. A voting scheme is then used to include/exclude this particular time sample in the final average based on its membership to the intended measurement or the background population. This results in a robust and reasonable estimate of the abundance of trace components such as CO2 and Ar even in the presence of obfuscating backgrounds internal to the VCAM device. VCAM can provide a means for monitoring the air within the enclosed environments, such as the ISS (International Space Station), Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), a Lunar Habitat, or another vehicle traveling to Mars. Its miniature pre-concentrator, gas chromatograph (GC), and mass spectrometer can provide unbiased detection of a large number of organic species as well as MCA analysis. VCAM s software can identify the concentration of trace chemicals and whether the chemicals are on a targeted list of hazardous compounds. This innovation s performance and reliability on orbit, along with the ground team s assessment of its raw data and analysis results, will validate its technology for future use and development.

Mandrake, Lukas↗

Validation Assessment for the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) Data Product Version 5

The post-launch Cal/Val phase of the SMAP mission is guided by two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) to calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the SMAP Level-1 mission science requirements. Algorithm science and product maintenance activities during the SMAP extended mission phase have also involved periodic algorithm calibration and product refinements to maintain or enhance product consistency and performance as well as science utility. This report provides an assessment of the latest (Version 5) SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product. The L4_C Version 5 (v5) global record now spans more than six years (March 2015 – present) of SMAP operations and has benefited from five major reprocessing updates to the operational product. These reprocessing events and L4_C product release updates have incorporated various algorithm refinements and calibration adjustments to account for similar refinements to the upstream GEOS land model assimilation system, SMAP brightness temperatures, and MODIS vegetation inputs used for L4_C processing. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by daily surface and root zone soil moisture information contributed from the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product along with optical remote sensing-based (e.g. MODIS-based) land cover and canopy fractional photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR), and other ancillary biophysical data. The carbon flux model estimates global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and the component carbon fluxes, namely, vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh). Other L4_C product elements include surface (~0-5 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture-related controls on GPP and ecosystem respiration (Kimball et al. 2014, Jones et al. 2017). The L4_C product addresses SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture-related constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity. The SMAP L4_C algorithms and operational product are mature and at a CEOS Validation Stage 4 level (Jackson et al. 2012) based on extensive validation of the multi-year record against a diverse array of independent benchmarks, well characterized global performance, and systematic refinements gained from five major reprocessing events. There are no Level-1 mission science requirements for the L4_C product; however, self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications (e.g., Liu et al. 2019, Endsley et al. 2020); however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE, or standard deviation of the error) for NEE of 1.6 g C m-2 d-1 and 30 g C m-2 yr-1, emphasizing northern (≥45°N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this accuracy is similar to that of tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008). Methods used for the latest v5 L4_C product performance and validation assessment have been established from the SMAP Cal/Val plan and previous studies (Jackson et al. 2012, Jones et al. 2017) and include: 1) consistency evaluations of the product fields against earlier product releases (version 4 or earlier); 2) comparisons of daily carbon flux estimates with independent tower eddy 4covariance measurement-based daily carbon (CO2) flux observations from core tower validation sites (CVS); and 3) consistency checks against other global carbon products, including soil carbon inventory records, global GPP records derived from tower observation upscaling methods, and satellite-based observations of canopy solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) as a surrogate for GPP. Metrics used to evaluate relative agreement between L4_C product fields and observational benchmarks include correlation (r-value), RMSE differences, bias and model sensitivity diagnostics. Following these validation criteria, the present report provides a validation assessment of the latest L4_C product release (v5). Detailed descriptions of the L4_C algorithm and additional global product accuracy and performance results are given elsewhere (Jones et al. 2017, Endsley et al. 2020). The v5 L4_C product replaces earlier product versions and continues to show: (i) accuracy and performance levels meeting or exceeding SMAP L4_C science requirements; (ii) improvement over the previous product version (version 4); and (iii) suitability for a diversity of science applications. Example L4_C applications from the recent literature include clarifying environmental trends and controls on the northern terrestrial carbon sink (Liu et al. 2019), diagnosing drought-related impacts on ecosystem productivity (Li et al. 2020), and regional monitoring of cropland conditions for projecting annual yields (Wurster et al. 2020). 2EXPECTED L4_C ALGORITHM AND PRODUCTPERFORMANCE The L4_C algorithm performance, including variance and uncertainty estimates of model outputs, was determined during the mission pre-launch phase through spatially explicit model sensitivity studies using available model inputs similar to those currently being used for operational production and evaluating the resulting model simulations over the observed range of northern (≥45 °N) and global conditions (Kimball et al. 2012, Entekhabi et al. 2014). The L4_C algorithm options were also evaluated during the mission prelaunch phase, including deriving canopy fPAR from lower order NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) inputs in lieu of using MODIS (MOD15) fPAR; and including an explicit model representation of boreal fire disturbance recovery impacts. These results indicated that the L4_C accuracy requirements (i.e., NEE ubRMSE ≤ 30 g C m-2 yr-1or ≤ 1.6 g C m-2 d-1) could be met from the baseline algorithms over more than 82% and 89% of global and northern vegetated land areas, respectively (Yi et al. 2013, Kimball et al. 2014). The global L4_C algorithm error budget for NEE derived during the mission prelaunch phase indicated that the estimated NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is proportional to GPP and is therefore larger in higher biomass productivity areas, including forests and croplands (Kimball et al. 2014). Likewise, NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is expected to be lower in less-productive areas, including grasslands and shrublands. Expected model NEE ubRMSE levels were also generally within targeted accuracy levels for characteristically less-productive boreal and Arctic biomes, even though relative model error as a proportion of total productivity (NEE RMSE / GPP) may be large in these areas. The estimated NEE uncertainty was lower than expected in some warmer tropical high biomass productivity areas (e.g. Amazon rainforest) because of reduced low temperature and moisture constraints to the L4_C respiration calculations so that the bulk of model uncertainty is contributed by GPP in these areas. Model NEE uncertainty in the African Congo was estimated to

SMAP↗

Estimations of ABL fluxes and other turbulence parameters from Doppler lidar data

Techniques for extraction boundary layer parameters from measurements of a short-pulse CO2 Doppler lidar are described. The measurements are those collected during the First International Satellites Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE). By continuously operating the lidar for about an hour, stable statistics of the radial velocities can be extracted. Assuming that the turbulence is horizontally homogeneous, the mean wind, its standard deviations, and the momentum fluxes were estimated. Spectral analysis of the radial velocities is also performed from which, by examining the amplitude of the power spectrum at the inertial range, the kinetic energy dissipation was deduced. Finally, using the statistical form of the Navier-Stokes equations, the surface heat flux is derived as the residual balance between the vertical gradient of the third moment of the vertical velocity and the kinetic energy dissipation. Combining many measurements would normally reduce the error provided that, it is unbiased and uncorrelated. The nature of some of the algorithms however, is such that, biased and correlated errors may be generated even though the raw measurements are not. Data processing procedures were developed that eliminate bias and minimize error correlation. Once bias and error correlations are accounted for, the large sample size is shown to reduce the errors substantially. The principal features of the derived turbulence statistics for two case studied are presented.

Gal-Chen, Tzvi↗

Extending 3D Near-Cloud Corrections from Shorter to Longer Wavelengths

Satellite observations have shown a positive correlation between cloud amount and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) that can be explained by the humidification of aerosols near clouds, and/or by cloud contamination by sub-pixel size clouds and the cloud adjacency effect. The last effect may substantially increase reflected radiation in cloud-free columns, leading to overestimates in the retrieved AOT. For clear-sky areas near boundary layer clouds the main contribution to the enhancement of clear sky reflectance at shorter wavelengths comes from the radiation scattered into clear areas by clouds and then scattered to the sensor by air molecules. Because of the wavelength dependence of air molecule scattering, this process leads to a larger reflectance increase at shorter wavelengths, and can be corrected using a simple two-layer model. However, correcting only for molecular scattering skews spectral properties of the retrieved AOT. Kassianov and Ovtchinnikov proposed a technique that uses spectral reflectance ratios to retrieve AOT in the vicinity of clouds; they assumed that the cloud adjacency effect influences the spectral ratio between reflectances at two wavelengths less than it influences the reflectances themselves. This paper combines the two approaches: It assumes that the 3D correction for the shortest wavelength is known with some uncertainties, and then it estimates the 3D correction for longer wavelengths using a modified ratio method. The new approach is tested with 3D radiances simulated for 26 cumulus fields from Large-Eddy Simulations, supplemented with 40 aerosol profiles. The results showed that (i) for a variety of cumulus cloud scenes and aerosol profiles over ocean the 3D correction due to cloud adjacency effect can be extended from shorter to longer wavelengths and (ii) the 3D corrections for longer wavelengths are not very sensitive to unbiased random uncertainties in the 3D corrections at shorter wavelengths.

aerosol optical depth↗

Cross-Cutting Computational Modeling Project: Integrative Modeling Approach

A wide range of computational models and analyses have been applied to spaceflight risk assessment and countermeasure development. The benefits of using computational modeling to enhance Human Research Program (HRP) goals include the ability to mathematically represent physiological systems, integrate multiple, discrete experimental measures, span multiple temporal and spatial scales, determine important factors within the system and provide estimates of unmeasurable quantities. In the area of application, computational models provide a means of developing simulations to test hypotheses, determining key factors of the system to aid experimental design and bridging gaps in sparse data by mathematically simulating large populations. Specifically, computational models and their supporting analysis tools have the proven potential to integrate analyses of risk factors to enhance mission planning and preparation capabilities and to inform spacecraft design and countermeasure development. Appropriately applied, computational models may allow intelligent, unbiased physiological parameter assessment to enable hypothesis testing and model based design of experiments. HRP recently formed the Computational Modeling Project (CMP), managed out of Glenn Research Center, as a cross-cutting activity aimed at leveraging the growing power and acceptance of computational modeling in informing clinical, physiological, and biological studies. This presentation will provide an overview of the challenges and opportunities in implementing various forms of computational models in support of the HRPs path to risk reduction.

biomechanics↗

Evaluation of High Mountain Asia-Land Data Assimilation System (version 1) from 2003 to 2016: 2. The impact of assimilating satellite-based snow cover and freeze/thaw observations into a land surface model

This second paper of the two-part series focuses on demonstrating the impact of assimilating satellite-based snow cover and freeze/thaw observations into the hyper-resolution, offline terrestrial modeling system used for the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region from 2003 to 2016. To this end, this study systematically evaluates a total of six sets of 0.01° (∼1 km) model simulations forced by different precipitation forcings, with and without the dual assimilation scheme enabled, at point-scale, basin-scale, and domain-scale. The key variables of interest include surface net shortwave radiation, surface net longwave radiation, skin temperature, near-surface soil temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), and total runoff. First, the point-scale assessment is mainly conducted via evaluating against ground-based measurements. In general, the assimilation enabled estimates are better than no-assimilation counterparts. Second, the basin-scale runoff assessment demonstrates that across three snow-dominated basins, the assimilation enabled experiment yields systematic improvements in all goodness-of-fit statistics through mitigating the negative effects brought by the fixed long-term precipitation correction factors. For example, when forced by the bias-corrected precipitation, the assimilation-enabled experiment improves the bias by 69%, the root-mean-squared error by 30%, and the unbiased root-mean-squared error by 18% (relative to the no-assimilation counterpart). Finally, the domainscale assessment is conducted via evaluating against satellite-based SWE and skin temperature products. Both sets of domain-scale analysis further corroborate the findings in the point-scale evaluations. Overall, this study suggests the benefits of the proposed multi-variate assimilation system in improving the cryospherichydrological process within a land surface model for use in HMA.

Yuan Xue↗

Evaluation of High Mountain Asia-Land Data Assimilation System (version 1) from 2003 to 2016: 2. The impact of assimilating satellite-based snow cover and freeze/thaw observations into a land surface model

This second paper of the two-part series focuses on demonstrating the impact of assimilating satellite-based snow cover and freeze/thaw observations into the hyper-resolution, offline terrestrial modeling system used for the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region from 2003 to 2016. To this end, this study systematically evaluates a total of six sets of 0.01° (∼1 km) model simulations forced by different precipitation forcings, with and without the dual assimilation scheme enabled, at point-scale, basin-scale, and domain-scale. The key variables of interest include surface net shortwave radiation, surface net longwave radiation, skin temperature, near-surface soil temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), and total runoff. First, the point-scale assessment is mainly conducted via evaluating against ground-based measurements. In general, the assimilation enabled estimates are better than no-assimilation counterparts. Second, the basin-scale runoff assessment demonstrates that across three snow-dominated basins, the assimilation enabled experiment yields systematic improvements in all goodness-of-fit statistics through mitigating the negative effects brought by the fixed long-term precipitation correction factors. For example, when forced by the bias-corrected precipitation, the assimilation-enabled experiment improves the bias by 69%, the root-mean-squared error by 30%, and the unbiased root-mean-squared error by 18% (relative to the no-assimilation counterpart). Finally, the domain-scale assessment is conducted via evaluating against satellite-based SWE and skin temperature products. Both sets of domain-scale analysis further corroborate the findings in the point-scale evaluations. Overall, this study suggests the benefits of the proposed multi-variate assimilation system in improving the cryospheric-hydrological process within a land surface model for use in HMA.

Yuan Xue↗

Assessing Disaggregated SMAP Soil Moisture Products in the United States

A soil moisture (SM) disaggregation algorithm based on thermal inertia (TI) theory was implemented to downscale the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Enhanced product(SPL2SMPE) from 9 km to 1 km over the continental United States. The algorithm applies land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at higher spatial resolution to estimate relative soil wetness within a coarse SMAP grid -this MODIS-derived relative wetness is then used to produce the downscaled SMAP SM. Results from the algorithm were evaluated in terms of their spatiotemporal coverage and accuracy using in situ measurements from SMAP Core Validation Sites (CVS), the US Department of Agriculture Soil Climate Analysis Network (USDA-SCAN), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Reference Network(NOAA-CRN). Results were also compared with the baselineSPL2SMPE and the SMAP/Sentinel-1 (SPL2SMAPS) 1kmproduct. Overall, the unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE)of the disaggregated SM at the CVS using the TI approach is approximately 0.04 m3=m3, which is the SMAP mission requirement for the baseline products. The TI approach out performs the SMAP/Sentinel SL2SMAPS 1km product by approximately0.02 m3=m3. Over the agriculture/crop areas from SCAN and CRN sparse network stations, the TI approach exhibits better ubRMSE compared to SPL2SMPE andSPL2SMAPS byabout0.01 and 0.02 m3=m3, indicating its advantage in these areas. However, a drawback of this approach is that there are data gaps due to cloud cover as optical sensors cannot have a clear view of the land surface.

Soil moisture↗

Using Data Assimilation Diagnostics to Assess the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Product

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides 3-hourly, 9-km resolution, global estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture and related land surface variables from 31 March 2015 to present with approx.2.5-day latency. The ensemble-based L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the Catchment land surface model. This study describes the spatially distributed L4_SM analysis and assesses the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) Tb residuals and the soil moisture and temperature analysis increments. Owing to the climatological rescaling of the Tb observations prior to assimilation, the analysis is essentially unbiased, with global mean values of approx. 0.37 K for the O-F Tb residuals and practically zero for the soil moisture and temperature increments. There are, however, modest regional (absolute) biases in the O-F residuals (under approx. 3 K), the soil moisture increments (under approx. 0.01 cu m/cu m), and the surface soil temperature increments (under approx. 1 K). Typical instantaneous values are approx. 6 K for O-F residuals, approx. 0.01 (approx. 0.003) cu m/cu m for surface (root-zone) soil moisture increments, and approx. 0.6 K for surface soil temperature increments. The O-F diagnostics indicate that the actual errors in the system are overestimated in deserts and densely vegetated regions and underestimated in agricultural regions and transition zones between dry and wet climates. The O-F auto-correlations suggest that the SMAP observations are used efficiently in western North America, the Sahel, and Australia, but not in many forested regions and the high northern latitudes. A case study in Australia demonstrates that assimilating SMAP observations successfully corrects short-term errors in the L4_SM rainfall forcing.

SMAP↗

Toward unbiased determination of the redshift evolution of Lyman-alpha forest clouds

The possibility of using D(sub A), the mean depression of a quasar spectrum due to Ly-alpha forest absorption, to study the number density evolution of the Ly-alpha forest clouds is examined in some detail. Current D(sub A) measurements are made against a continuum that is a power-law extrapolation from the continuum longward of Ly-alpha emission. Compared to the line-counting approach, the D(sub A)-method has the advantage that the D(sub A) measurements are not affected by line-blending effects. However, we find using low-redshift quasar spectra obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), where the true continuum in the Ly-alpha forest can be estimated fairly reliably because of the much lower density of the Ly-alpha forest lines, that the extrapolated continuum often deviates systematically from the true continuum in the forest region. Such systematic continuum errors introduce large errors in the D(sub A) measurements. The current D(sub A) measurements may also be significantly biased by the possible presence of the Gunn-Peterson absorption. We propose a modification to the existing D(sub A)-method, namely, to measure D(sub A) against a locally established continuum in the Ly-alpha forest. Under conditions that the quasar spectrum has good resolution and S/N to allow for a reliable estimate of the local continuum in the Ly-alpha forest, the modified D(sub A) measurements should be largely free of the systematic uncertainties suffered by the existing D(sub A) measurements. We also introduce a formalism based on the work of Zuo (1993) to simplify the application of the D(sub A)-method(s) to real data. We discuss the merits and limitations of the modified D(sub A)-method, and conclude that it is a useful alternative. Our findings that the extrapolated continuum from longward of Ly-alpha emission often deviates systematically from the true continuum in the Ly-alpha forest present a major problem in the study of the Gunn-Peterson absorption.

Lu, Limin↗

Missing Data and Multiple Imputation: An Unbiased Approach

The default method of dealing with missing data in statistical analyses is to only use the complete observations (complete case analysis), which can lead to unexpected bias when data do not meet the assumption of missing completely at random (MCAR). For the assumption of MCAR to be met, missingness cannot be related to either the observed or unobserved variables. A less stringent assumption, missing at random (MAR), requires that missingness not be associated with the value of the missing variable itself, but can be associated with the other observed variables. When data are truly MAR as opposed to MCAR, the default complete case analysis method can lead to biased results. There are statistical options available to adjust for data that are MAR, including multiple imputation (MI) which is consistent and efficient at estimating effects. Multiple imputation uses informing variables to determine statistical distributions for each piece of missing data. Then multiple datasets are created by randomly drawing on the distributions for each piece of missing data. Since MI is efficient, only a limited number, usually less than 20, of imputed datasets are required to get stable estimates. Each imputed dataset is analyzed using standard statistical techniques, and then results are combined to get overall estimates of effect. A simulation study will be demonstrated to show the results of using the default complete case analysis, and MI in a linear regression of MCAR and MAR simulated data. Further, MI was successfully applied to the association study of CO2 levels and headaches when initial analysis showed there may be an underlying association between missing CO2 levels and reported headaches. Through MI, we were able to show that there is a strong association between average CO2 levels and the risk of headaches. Each unit increase in CO2 (mmHg) resulted in a doubling in the odds of reported headaches.

Foy, M.↗

Exotic interactions among C-jets and Pb-jets

The C-jets and Pb-jets were surveyed on the part of Chacaltaya emulsion chamber No.19 amounting to an exposure of 28.8 sq m yr. It is shown that the adopted events make up an unbiased sample of C-jets for sigma sub E gamma TeV. Mini-Centauro interaction gives the most natural explanation for the eight pinaught-less C-jets with three or more constituent shower core. Out of the eight double-cored pinaught-less events, three are found to have visible invariant masses 1.8 GeV/c. Three Pb-jets-lower are composed of double cores whose respective visible transverse momenta are greater than 0.5 GeV/c, suggesting that they are of Geminion origin or chiron origin. The energies of the parent particles are estimated to be 100 to 200 TeV for all three kinds of events. The implications of this energy estimate and the frequency of observed exotic events are discussed.

Source record↗

Global Assessment of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Product Using Assimilation Diagnostics

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides 3-hourly, 9-km resolution, global estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture and related land surface variables from 31 March 2015 to present with approx. 2.5-day latency. The ensemble-based L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the Catchment land surface model. This study describes the spatially distributed L4_SM analysis and assesses the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) Tb residuals and the soil moisture and temperature analysis increments. Owing to the climatological rescaling of the Tb observations prior to assimilation, the analysis is essentially unbiased, with global mean values of approx. 0.37 K for the O-F Tb residuals and practically zero for the soil moisture and temperature increments. There are, however, modest regional (absolute) biases in the O-F residuals (under approx. 3 K), the soil moisture increments (under approx. 0.01 cu m/cu m), and the surface soil temperature increments (under approx. 1 K). Typical instantaneous values are approx. 6 K for O-F residuals, approx. 0.01 (approx. 0.003) cu m/cu m for surface (root-zone) soil moisture increments, and approx. 0.6 K for surface soil temperature increments. The O-F diagnostics indicate that the actual errors in the system are overestimated in deserts and densely vegetated regions and underestimated in agricultural regions and transition zones between dry and wet climates. The O-F auto-correlations suggest that the SMAP observations are used efficiently in western North America, the Sahel, and Australia, but not in many forested regions and the high northern latitudes. A case study in Australia demonstrates that assimilating SMAP observations successfully corrects short-term errors in the L4_SM rainfall forcing.

Reichle, Rolf↗