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At least 163 records · Page 9

Systematic Study of the Self-Renormalized Nucleon Gluon PDF in Large-Momentum Effective Theory

We present a systematic study of the nucleon gluon parton distribution function (PDF) using the self-renormalized large-momentum effective theory (LaMET) approach in lattice QCD. This work extends previous gluon-PDF extractions by performing a detailed analysis of key systematic effects, including gauge-link smearing, lattice spacing, pion mass, and nucleon boost momentum. The self-renormalization framework mitigates ultraviolet divergences associated with Wilson-line self-energy and renormalon contributions by combining lattice matrix elements with perturbative short-distance information, thereby preserving the correct infrared structure. Calculations are performed on $N_f=2+1+1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC Collaboration at three lattice spacings and two pion masses, with boosted nucleon states reaching momenta up to 2.2~GeV. We determine renormalization factors from zero-momentum matrix elements and apply hybrid renormalization to suppress discretization artifacts. After extrapolating large-separation behavior and performing Fourier transforms, we reconstruct quasi-PDFs and match them to lightcone PDFs using next-to-leading order Wilson coefficients. Our results demonstrate that smearing and lattice-spacing effects are under control, and pion-mass and lattice-spacing dependence is mild relative to the current $O(10^6)$ statistics; however, momentum dependence remains a significant source of uncertainty. Future work including even larger boost momenta will be essential to reduce systematics in lattice determinations of the gluon PDF and to advance toward precision QCD phenomenology at the LHC and the future Electron-Ion Collider.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

The SINBAD evaluation of legacy HPRR experiments [Slides]

The HPRR experiments were evaluated – legacy experiment: a lot of unknowns and high uncertainty. The SINBAD evaluation of legacy HPRR experiments version 1 is soon to be released. It will include neutron fluence and kerma with no shield, steel shield, and Lucite shield. Sample calculation results are mostly good, with notable artifacts due to Bonner sphere unfolding imprecisions that seem complex to be solved. Version 2 will include sulfur pellet activation results with the same shield configurations, and maybe gamma dose and fast results if there is interest.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Effects of aircraft and flight parameters on energy-efficient profile descents in time-based metered traffic

Concepts to save fuel while preserving airport capacity by combining time based metering with profile descent procedures were developed. A computer algorithm is developed to provide the flight crew with the information needed to fly from an entry fix to a metering fix and arrive there at a predetermined time, altitude, and airspeed. The flight from the metering fix to an aim point near the airport was calculated. The flight path is divided into several descent and deceleration segments. Descents are performed at constant Mach numbers or calibrated airspeed, whereas decelerations occur at constant altitude. The time and distance associated with each segment are calculated from point mass equations of motion for a clean configuration with idle thrust. Wind and nonstandard atmospheric properties have a large effect on the flight path. It is found that uncertainty in the descent Mach number has a large effect on the predicted flight time. Of the possible combinations of Mach number and calibrated airspeed for a descent, only small changes were observed in the fuel consumed.

Dejarnette, F. R.↗

Block-Structured Operator Inference for Coupled Multiphysics Model Reduction

This work presents a block-structured formulation of Operator Inference as a way to learn structured reduced-order models for multiphysics systems. The approach specifies the governing equation structure for each physics component and the structure of the coupling terms. Once the multiphysics structure is specified, the reduced-order model is learned from snapshot data following the nonintrusive Operator Inference methodology. In addition to preserving physical system structure, which in turn permits preservation of system properties such as stability and second-order structure, the block-structured approach has the advantages of reducing the overall dimensionality of the learning problem and admitting tailored regularization for each physics component. The numerical advantages of the block-structured formulation over a monolithic Operator Inference formulation are demonstrated for aeroelastic analysis, which couples aerodynamic and structural models. For the benchmark test case of the AGARD 445.6 wing, block-structured Operator Inference provides an average 20% online prediction speedup over monolithic Operator Inference across subsonic and supersonic flow conditions in both the stable and fluttering parameter regimes while preserving the accuracy achieved with monolithic Operator Inference.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Terrestrial atmospheric ion implantation occurred in the nearside lunar regolith during the history of Earth’s dynamo

Light volatile elements in lunar regolith are thought to be a mixture of the solar wind and Earth’s atmosphere, the latter sourced in the absence of geomagnetic field. However, the extent to which both the current and primitive geodynamo influence the transport of terres trial ions still remains unclear, and this uncertainty is further complicated by the enigmatic composition and poorly constrained location of the Eoarchean exosphere. Here we use 3-D MHD numerical simulations with contemporary magnetized and Archean unmagnetized atmospheres to investigate how Earth’s intrinsic magnetic field affects this transfer, aiming to constrain how and when the lunar isotopic signature provides a record of Earth’s pale-oatmosphere. We find that atmospheric transfer is efficient only when the Moon is within Earth’s magnetotail. The non-solar contribution to the lunar soil is best explained by implantation during the long history of the geodynamo with present-day solar wind conditions, rather than any short, putatively unmagnetized epoch of early Archean Earth. This further suggests the history of the terrestrial atmosphere, spanning billions of years, could be preserved in buried lunar soils. Our results indicate that the elemental abundances of Apollo samples are very sensitive to Earth’s hydrodynamic exobase altitude, which, at the time of ion implantation, was never smaller than 190 km.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

Regression Analysis with the Directed Infusion of Data

Integrating artificial intelligence and machine learning tools into industry necessitates large-scale collaborative efforts that ensure the robust and accurate execution of downstream analytics such as time series prediction, uncertainty quantification, grid optimization, and condition monitoring. However, concerns related to data privacy pervade the nuclear industry due to the proprietary nature of its data and the possibility of data leakage. Legacy techniques such as encryption often require the explicit transmission of data to trustworthy parties, thereby inviting data leakage concerns. The ideal collaboration scenario avoids the explicit dissemination of data/code while maintaining experimental fidelity, which is currently accomplished using various techniques such as trusted execution environments, homomorphic encryption, differential privacy, and multimatrix masking. These techniques, however, often necessitate a trade-off between trust, efficiency, and utility. This article extends a previously proposed technique called the directed infusion of data (DIOD) that ensures data privacy, allows for scalable obfuscation, and combats the risk of data leakage without compromising utility. The experiments discussed in this article examine a regression-type scenario using DIOD with the goal of preserving the inferential link between two variables. Using the point-kinetics equations, regression experiments compare the performance of a model trained using the original data to that of a model trained using the obfuscated data, which produced identical results. Our claim is further strengthened by an information theoretic proof and experiment, which showed that the inferential content between variables remains the same after obfuscation, thereby avoiding the required communication of the proprietary data.

47 - OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Olivine in Martian Meteorite Allan Hills 84001: Evidence for a High-Temperature Origin and Implications for Signs of Life

Olivine from Martian meteorite Allan Hills (ALH) 84001 occurs as clusters within orthopyroxene adjacent to fractures containing disrupted carbonate globules and feldspathic shock glass. The inclusions are irregular in shape and range in size from approx. 40 microns to submicrometer. Some of the inclusions are elongate and boudinage-like. The olivine grains are in sharp contact with the enclosing orthopyroxene and often contain small inclusions of chromite The olivine exhibits a very limited range of composition from Fo(sub 65) to Fo(sub 66) (n = 25). The delta(sup 18)O values of the olivine and orthopyroxene analyzed by ion microprobe range from +4.3 to +5.3% and are indistinguishable from each other within analytical uncertainty. The mineral chemistries, O-isotopic data, and textural relationships indicate that the olivine inclusions were produced at a temperature greater than 800 C. It is unlikely that the olivines formed during the same event that gave rise to the carbonates in ALH 84001, which have more elevated and variable delta(sup 18)O values, and were probably formed from fluids that were not in isotopic equilibrium with the orthopyroxene or olivine The reactions most likely instrumental in the formation of olivine could be either the dehydration of hydrous silicates that formed during carbonate precipitation or the reduction of orthopyroxene and spinel If the olivine was formed by either reaction during a postcarbonate beating event, the implications are profound with regards to the interpretations of McKay et al. Due to the low diffusion rates in carbonates, this rapid, high-temperature event would have resulted in the preservation of the fine-scale carbonate zoning' while partially devolatilizing select carbonate compositions on a submicrometer scale. This may have resulted in the formation of the minute magnetite grains that McKay et al attributed to biogenic activity.

Shearer, C. K.↗

Health Physics Research Reactor Criticality Accident Alarm System Benchmark Overview

From the countless critical experiments performed in the world during the past century, high-quality integral benchmarks experiments have been collected and gathered into the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments (ICSBEP Handbook), managed by the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Working Group. This information preservation and dissemination effort is crucial for reactor licensing as well as criticality and radiation transport modeling validation. This summary reports on the status of a tentative benchmark addition to the ICSBEP Handbook. The proposed benchmark arises from legacy operation data of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Health Physics Research Reactor (HPRR). The HPRR was a small, unmoderated, unshielded fast burst reactor that was used for research in health physics and radiobiology as well as teaching and training. As part of a comprehensive investigation of the available HPRR operation data and characteristics, different possibilities for use of the valuable results were studied. A critical experiment benchmark evaluation was performed, analyzing data coming from sub-critical and critical operation of the HPRR during operator training, steady-state irradiation of samples and before critical bursts. The results of the evaluation do not satisfy for the ICSBEP standards as the benchmark relative standard uncertainty is of about 4% for k eff , and the relative difference between sample calculations and expected k eff results is of about 1.5%. Due to those unsatisfactory results, it was decided not to pursue critical experiments evaluation of the HPRR presently and to focus instead on shielding type data for the creation of a criticality accident alarm system (CAAS) and shielding category benchmark, which is currently very scarce in the ICSBEP handbook—especially concerning critical, pulsed assembly, or reactor operation data. Several dosimetry and shielding experiments from HPRR burst operation were evaluated, with different benchmark metrics as sulfur fluence, Element 57 dose, or neutron fluence at different distances and under different shield materials conditions. An evaluation focusing on the Element 57 neutron dose as a benchmark metric was submitted to the ICSBEP Technical Review Group (TRG) meeting in October 2021, and the inclusion of the evaluation in the ICSBEP Handbook was deferred. The main change proposed by the international experiment evaluation experts is to use the neutron fluence measured by Bonner spheres as a benchmark metric. This represents a quantity closer to that actually measured by the experimentalists of the HPRR compared to the Element 57 dose, which adds another step of data transformation, thus potentially adding uncertainty to the benchmark. The evaluation has been updated and will be submitted to the 2022 ICSBEP TRG meeting for inclusion in the 2023 edition of the ICSBEP Handbook. The evaluation is performed using the KENO and MAVRIC combination from the SCALE 6.2.4 code suite which was previously used in similar CAAS benchmarks to allow for the use of variance reduction techniques.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Upsampling Monte Carlo Reactor Simulation Tallies in Depleted Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor Assemblies Using a Convolutional Neural Network

The computational demand of neutron Monte Carlo transport simulations can increase rapidly with the spatial and energy resolution of tallied physical quantities. Convolutional neural networks have been used to increase the resolution of Monte Carlo simulations of light water reactor assemblies while preserving accuracy with negligible additional computational cost. Here, we show that a convolutional neural network can also be used to upsample tally results from Monte Carlo simulations of sodium-cooled fast reactor assemblies, thereby extending the applicability beyond thermal systems. The convolutional neural network model is trained using neutron flux tallies from 300 procedurally generated nuclear reactor assemblies simulated using OpenMC. Validation and test datasets included 16 simulations of procedurally generated assemblies, and a realistic simulation of a European sodium-cooled fast reactor assembly was included in the test dataset. We show the residuals between the high-resolution flux tallies predicted by the neural network and high-resolution Monte Carlo tallies on relative and absolute bases. The network can upsample tallies from simulations of fast reactor assemblies with diverse and heterogeneous materials and geometries by a factor of two in each spatial and energy dimension. The network’s predictions are within the statistical uncertainty of the Monte Carlo tallies in almost all cases. This includes test assemblies for which burnup values and geometric parameters were well outside the ranges of those in assemblies used to train the network.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Roosevelt County 075: A petrologic chemical and isotopic study of the most unequilibrated known H chondrite

Roosevelt County (RC) 075 was recovered in 1990 as a single 258-gram stone. Classification of this meteorite is complicated by its highly unequilibrated nature and its severe terrestrial weathering, but we favor H classification. This is supported by O isotopes and estimates of the original Fe, Ni metal content. The O isotopic composition is similar to that of a number of reduced ordinary chondrites (e.g., Cerro los Calvos, Willaroy), although RC 075 exhibits no evidence of reduced mineral compositions. Chondrule diameters are consistent with classification as an L chondrite, but large uncertainties in chondrule diameters of RC 075 and poorly constrained means of H, L and LL chondrites prevent use of this parameter for reliable classification. Other parameters are compromised by severe weathering (e.g., siderophile element abundances) or unsuitable for discrimination between unequilibrated H, L and LL chondrites (e.g., Co in kamacite delta C-13). Petrologic subtype 3.2 +/- 0.1 is suggested by the degree of olivine heterogeneity, the compositions of chondrule olivines, the thermoluminescence sensitivity, the abundances and types of chondrules mapped on cathodoluminescence mosaics, and the amount of presolar SiC. The meteorite is very weakly shocked (S2), with some chondrules essentially unshocked and, thus, is classified as an H3.2(S2) chondrite. Weathering is evident by a LREE enrichment due to clay contamination, reduced levels of many siderophile elements, the almost total loss of Fe, Ni metal and troilite, and the reduced concentrations of noble gases. Some components of the meteorite (e.g., type IA chondrules, SiC) appear to preserve their nebular states, with little modification from thermal metamorphism. We conclude that RC 075 is the most equilibrated H chondrite yet recovered and may provide additional insights into the origin of primitive materials in the solar nebula.

Mccoy, T. J.↗

Testing Recommendations for Thermal Failure Analysis

Minimizing ranges of uncertainty in failure QOIs is vital for making informed engineering decisions. To improve our decision-making ability, it is necessary to have a QOI representation that captures more complex failure modes. Capturing the physics of complex time-dependent temperature failure in explicit detail can be computationally and experimentally expensive. To avoid this blooming of complication and costs, an empirical QOI component-level failure/damage model may be sufficient to help identify component-level failure. In this context, failure and damage are abstractions of more complicated processes that lead to the cessation of normal operating behavior, not a representation of mechanical damage, such as void formation. Such a model requires minimal increases in computational cost and experimental burden. The proposed QOI serves as an indicator that something has likely failed, similar to the previous critical failure temperatures or pressures. This QOI will not replace any existing failure QOIs. It will be calculated alongside them, allowing for preservation of legacy style QOI measurements with new context from the new QOI.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Enhancing nuclear data validation analysis by using machine learning

In this work, we demonstrate how machine learning (ML) techniques can be used as an auxiliary tool for nuclear data validation analysis. The output of the ML analysis can inform evaluators and validators on the quality, or lack thereof, of specific nuclear data and benchmark experiments with respect to simulating these experimental benchmark values. To this end, measured and simulated effective neutron multiplication factors, k eff , of 875 selected ICSBEP critical assemblies and the latter's sensitivities with respect to nuclear data as well as benchmarks' features (e.g., material nuclide, core geometry) are used as input for a random forest (RF) regression model. The RF is used to encode the complex inter-dependencies between thousands of nuclear data features (i.e., sensitivity profiles and aspects describing the measurements) and 875 simulated and experimental k eff values in order to understand what nuclear data features are most informative for predicting bias. The complexity of relationships and high-dimensional space is difficult-to-impossible to search fully using simply expert judgment. As a first proof-of-concept—step, it is demonstrated that this technique is able to correctly trace large discrepancies between simulated and experimental k eff back to fabricated shortcomings in nuclear data that were perturbed to simulated k eff values. In a second, real-case scenario, step, the RF algorithm is used to validate the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library in comparison to ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data. One case is showcased where the chosen ML algorithms highlighted nuclear data (the 19 F(n,inl) cross section from 0.4–0.9 MeV) that are shown to be problematic by comparing them to associated differential experimental data and nuclear data from other libraries. In addition to that, it is shown that the RF results point towards poor benchmark experiments and associated underestimated uncertainties (e.g., the PU-SOL-THERM-028 series). However, using the RF algorithm for validating nuclear data with respect to k eff is currently limited to pinpointing groups of questionable nuclear data due to the inherent correlations between features introduced by the nuclear data themselves and how k eff is simulated. Due to this, we recommend that the ML methods presented be used to augment—rather than replace—the expert knowledge of evaluators and validators.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

One Giant Leap to Protect All Mankind: An Overview of the Lunar Receiving Laboratory

Motivation. In 1961, President John F. Kennedy charged the nation "to land a man on the moon and return him safely to Earth." Eight years later, the Apollo 11 astronauts splashed down in the Pacific Ocean after this first 8-day journey to the moon. As humans had never ventured to another extraterrestrial body, the U.S. government noted the great uncertainty associated with the unknown exposures related to this historic mission. Overview. With this uncertainty in mind, a newly formed Interagency Committee on Back Contamination (ICBC) was established to review the potential for lunar contaminants and establish the prevention of their escape into the biosphere during crew and sample recovery operations from the floating command module to the mobile quarantine facility on the recovery ship and return to the Johnson Space Center. Significance. As a result of the ICBC recommendations, in 1966 NASA planned and built the Lunar Receiving Laboratory (LRL) at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas. The LRL served a great role in service of human space exploration to quarantine Apollo crewmembers, their space vehicles, and the lunar samples collected. Almost an afterthought in the space race to the Moon, the 83,000-square-foot LRL was designed and completed in 1967 for $7.8 million. The core purpose of the LRL was "to protect the public's health, agriculture, and other living resources; to provide lunar sample distribution to approved scientific investigators; and to preserve the scientific integrity of the lunar samples at all times." Its layout was comprised of three major zones: a quarantined Crew Area, a separate but also quarantined Sample Operations Area, and a Support and Administration Area outside the controlled biological barrier. This facility required trained personnel to live and perform within it for several weeks post-flight, to include astronaut crewmembers, flight surgeons, scientists, and vehicle recovery engineers. The LRL holds memories of these historic events but has since been repurposed for NASA's medical and environmental sciences activities, in what is now known as Building 37. As we approach its 50th anniversary, the LRL story will end in demolition as NASA advances its facilities for the next steps in human exploration of space. Learning Objectives: 1. To capture the historical relevance of the NASA Lunar Receiving Laboratory 2. To understand the requirements of receiving crew and samples from the moon for the first time 3. To describe the facility capabilities in protection of public health.

Hayes, Judith↗

MatLib-1.1: Nuclear Material Properties Library: Developed under NQA-1-2017

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) uses the computer code Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients (FAST) to model steady-state and transient fuel behavior to support regulatory decisions. FAST relies on a material properties library (MatLib) that contains the thermal and mechanical properties of the nuclear materials and coolants of interest to support the US commercial nuclear industry. MatLib contains properties for a variety of nuclear fuels, cladding and other structural materials, gases, and coolants. In this document, material property correlations for the materials contained within MatLib are presented and discussed. When available, comparisons are made between the material property correlations and available data. Additionally, uncertainties are quantified on the material properties, which is then used by the NRC to support uncertainty quantification for best-estimate plus uncertainty safety evaluation reviews. This document describes MatLib-1.1, which was updated from MatLib-1.0 to include the addition of Lua functionality and code changes for integration with FAST. The results of MatLib did not change between MatLib-1.0 and MatLib-1.1; however, the source code changes warranted incrementing the minor numbering of the software version number. This document is one of a series of documents on FAST; the other documents detail the models used by FAST as well as its integral assessment to experiments and commercial data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Quantification of storage required for preserving frequency security in wind‐integrated systems

Abstract The penetration of wind power generation into the power grid has been accelerated in recent times due to the aggressive emission targets set by governments and other regulatory authorities. Although wind power has the advantage of being environment‐friendly, wind as a resource is intermittent in nature. In addition, wind power contributes little inertia to the system as most wind turbines are connected to the grid via power electronic converters. These negative aspects of wind power pose serious challenges to the frequency security of power systems as penetration increases. In this work, an approach is proposed where an energy storage system (ESS) is used to mitigate frequency security issues of wind‐integrated systems. ESSs are well equipped to supply virtual inertia to the grid due to their fast‐acting nature, thus replenishing some of the energy storage capability of displaced inertial generation. In this work, a probabilistic approach is proposed to estimate the amount of inertia required by a system to ensure frequency security. Reduction in total system inertia due to the displacement of conventional synchronous generation by wind power generation is considered in this approach, while also taking into account the loss of inertia due to forced outages of conventional units. Monte Carlo simulation is employed for implementing the probabilistic estimation of system inertia. An ESS is then sized appropriately, using the system swing equation, to compensate for the lost inertia. The uncertainty associated with wind energy is modeled into the framework using an autoregressive moving average technique. Effects of increasing the system peak load and changing the wind profile on the expected system inertia are studied to illustrate various factors that might affect system frequency security. The proposed method is validated using the IEEE 39‐bus test system.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

High precision tests of QCD without scale or scheme ambiguities: The 40th anniversary of the Brodsky–Lepage–Mackenzie method

A key issue in making precise predictions in QCD is the uncertainty in setting the renormalization scale μ r and thus determining the correct values of the QCD running coupling α s (μ r ) at each order in the perturbative expansion of a QCD observable. It has often been conventional to simply set the renormalization scale to the typical scale of the process Q and vary it in the range μ r $\in$ [Q/2, 2Q] in order to estimate the theoretical error. This is the practice of Conventional Scale Setting (CSS). The resulting CSS prediction will however depend on the theorist’s choice of renormalization scheme and the resulting pQCD series will diverge factorially. It will also disagree with renormalization scale setting used in QED and electroweak theory thus precluding grand unification. A solution to the renormalization scale-setting problem is offered by the Principle of Maximum Conformality (PMC), which provides a systematic way to eliminate the renormalization scale-and-scheme dependence in perturbative calculations. The PMC method has rigorous theoretical foundations, it satisfies Renormalization Group Invariance (RGI) and preserves all self-consistency conditions derived from the renormalization group. The PMC cancels the renormalon growth, reduces to the Gell-Mann–Low scheme in the N c → 0 Abelian limit and leads to scale- and scheme-invariant results. The PMC has now been successfully applied to many high-energy processes. In this article we summarize recent developments and results in solving the renormalization scale and scheme ambiguities in perturbative QCD. In particular, we present a recently developed method the PMC ∞ and its applications, comparing the results with CSS. The method preserves the property of renormalizable SU(N)/U(1) gauge theories defined as Intrinsic Conformality (iCF). This property underlies the scale invariance of physical observables and leads to a remarkably efficient method to solve the conventional renormalization scale ambiguity at every order in pQCD. This new method reflects the underlying conformal properties displayed by pQCD at NNLO, eliminates the scheme dependence of pQCD predictions and is consistent with the general properties of the PMC. A new method to identify conformal and β-terms, which can be applied either to numerical or to theoretical calculations is also shown. We present results for the thrust and C-parameter distributions in e + e - annihilation showing errors and comparison with the CSS. We also show results for a recent innovative comparison between the CSS and the PMC ∞ applied to the thrust distribution investigating both the QCD conformal window and the QED N c → 0 limit. In order to determine the thrust distribution along the entire renormalization group flow from the highest energies to zero energy, we consider the number of flavors near the upper boundary of the conformal window. In this flavor-number regime the theory develops a perturbative infrared interacting fixed point. These results show that PMC ∞ leads to higher precision and introduces new interesting features in the PMC. In fact, this method preserves with continuity the position of the peak, showing perfect agreement with the experimental data already at NNLO. We also show a detailed comparison of the PMC ∞ with the other PMC approaches: the multi-scale-setting approach (PMCm) and the single-scale-setting approach (PMCs) by comparing their predictions for three important fully integrated quantities R e+e- , R$_Τ$ and Γ (H→$b\bar{b}$) up to the four-loop accuracy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Assessing Tree Health Conditions in New York City’s Central Park with Earth Observation Data

The Central Park Conservancy stewards New York City’s iconic Central Park with a mission to preserve the park for all. This mission is complicated by the spread of Dutch elm disease (DED) which has threatened the culturally and ecologically significant American elm tree (Ulmus americana). Central Park is home to one of the largest and last remaining urban concentrations of American elm and the Conservancy currently protects them through integrated pest management. This project is an interdisciplinary feasibility study that assessed the application of NASA Earth observations from 2014 to 2023 to detect changes in forest phenology possibly related to DED. Landsat 8 and 9 imagery was used to calculate a multiyear time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and quantify changes in land surface phenology. A pixel-based logistic regression analysis was performed using changes in NDVI, tree site locations, and recorded occurrences of trees infected with DED as inputs. The results of this analysis show that changes in NDVI derived from Landsat data are capable of detecting unhealthy tree canopies with 71% precision and healthy tree canopies with 41% precision. The study had uncertainties and limitations due to the spatial and temporal resolutions of Landsat, the natural variability in land surface phenology and NDVI, and the attempt to detect disease impacts while disease prevention and mitigation are occurring. As is, the findings of this study and its methods provide managers with an approach for integrating Earth observations to make more informed decisions in the application and timing of urban forest management activities.

John Hocknell↗

Central Park Ecological Conservation: Assessing Tree Health Conditions in New York City’s Central Park with NASA Earth Observation Data

The Central Park Conservancy stewards New York City’s iconic Central Park with a mission to preserve the park for all. This mission is complicated by the spread of Dutch elm disease (DED) which has threatened the culturally and ecologically significant American elm tree (Ulmus americana). Central Park is home to one of the largest and last remaining urban concentrations of American elm and the Conservancy currently protects them through integrated pest management. This paper discusses an interdisciplinary feasibility study that assessed the application of NASA Earth observations from 2014 to 2023 to detect changes in forest phenology possibly related to DED. Landsat 8 and 9 imagery was used to calculate multiyear time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and quantify changes in land surface phenology for a given year. A pixel-based logistic regression analysis was performed using changes in NDVI, tree site locations, and recorded occurrences of trees infected with DED as inputs. The results of this analysis show that changes in NDVI derived from Landsat data are capable of detecting unhealthy tree canopies with 71% precision and healthy tree canopies with 41% precision. The study had uncertainties and limitations due to the spatial and temporal resolutions of Landsat, the natural variability in land surface phenology and NDVI, and the attempt to detect disease impacts while disease prevention and mitigation is occurring. As is, the findings of this study and its methods provide managers with an approach for integrating Earth observations to make more informed decisions in the application and timing of urban forest management activities.

Central Park↗