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DOE OSTI2025

Cosmology From CMB Lensing and Delensed EE Power Spectra Using 2019-2020 SPT-3G Polarization Data

From CMB polarization data alone we reconstruct the CMB lensing power spectrum, comparable in overall constraining power to previous temperature-based reconstructions, and an unlensed E -mode power spectrum, with clear detections of the third through tenth acoustic peaks. The observations, taken in 2019 and 2020 with the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and the SPT-3G camera, cover 1500 deg 2 at 95, 150, and 220 GHz with arcminute resolution and roughly 4.9 µ K-arcmin coadded noise in polarization. The power spectrum estimates, together with systematic parameter estimates and a joint covariance matrix, follow from a Bayesian analysis using the Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) method. The E -mode spectrum at ℓ > 2000 and lensing spectrum at L > 350 are the most precise to date. Assuming the ΛCDM model, and using only these SPT data and priors on τ and absolute calibration from Planck, we find H 0 = 66.81 ± 0.81 km/s/Mpc, comparable in precision to the Planck determination and in 5.4 σ tension with the most precise H 0 inference derived via the distance ladder. We also find S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 = 0.850 ± 0.017, providing further independent evidence of a slight tension with low-redshift structure probes. The ΛCDM model provides a good simultaneous fit to the combined Planck, ACT, and SPT data, and thus passes a powerful test. Combining these CMB datasets with BAO observations, we explore extensions to the ΛCDM model. We find that the effective number of neutrino species, spatial curvature, and primordial helium fraction are consistent with standard model values, and that the 95% confidence upper limit on the neutrino mass sum is 0.075 eV, close to the minimum sum expected from observations of solar and atmospheric neutrino oscillations. The SPT data are consistent with the somewhat weak (< 3 σ ) preference for excess lensing power seen in Planck and ACT data relative to predictions of the ΛCDM model given the combined Planck, ACT, and BAO data sets. Finally, we also detect at greater than 3 σ the influence of non-linear evolution in the CMB lensing power spectrum and discuss it in the context of the S 8 tension. Forthcoming SPT-3G analyses will feature deeper and wider observations in temperature and polarization, providing even tighter constraints and more powerful tests of the ΛCDM model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Water‐Year Water Balance of the Colorado River Basin

Abstract Model‐estimated monthly water balance components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff ( R )) for 146 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic units located in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the CRB water balance for water years 1901 through 2014 (a water year is the period from October 1 of one year through September 30 of the following year). Results indicate that the CRB can be divided into six subregions with similar temporal variability in monthly R . The water balance analyses indicated that approximately 75% of total water‐year R is generated by just one CRB subregion and that most of the R in the basin is derived from surplus ( S ) water generated during the months of October through April. Furthermore, the analyses show that temporal variability in S is largely controlled by the occurrence of negative atmospheric pressure anomalies over the northwestern conterminous U.S. (CONUS) and positive atmospheric pressure anomalies over the southeastern CONUS. This combination of atmospheric pressure anomalies results in an anomalous flow of moist air from the North Pacific Ocean into the CRB, particularly the Upper CRB. Additionally, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet periods in the CRB appears to be related to variability of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

McCabe, Gregory J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Pressure Drag on Rising Buoyant Thermals in a Neutrally Stable Environment

Abstract This study examines dynamic pressure drag on rising dry buoyant thermals. A theoretical expression for drag coefficient C d as a function of several other nondimensional parameters governing thermal dynamics is derived based on combining the thermal momentum budget with the similarity theory of Scorer. Using values for these nondimensional parameters from previous studies, the theory suggests drag on thermals is small relative to that on solid spheres in laminar or turbulent flow. Two sets of numerical simulations of thermals in an unstratified, neutrally stable environment using an LES configuration of the Cloud Model 1 (CM1) are analyzed. One set has a relatively low effective Reynolds number R e and the other has an order-of-magnitude-higher R e ; these produce laminar and turbulent resolved-scale flows, respectively. Consistent with the theoretical C d , the magnitude of drag is small in all simulations. However, whereas the laminar thermals have C d ≈ 0.01, the turbulent thermals have weakly negative drag ( C d ≈ −0.1). This difference is explained by the laminar thermals having near vertical symmetry but the turbulent thermals exhibiting considerable vertical asymmetry of their azimuthally averaged flows. In the laminar thermals, buoyancy rapidly becomes concentrated around the main centers of rotation located along the horizontal central axis, leading to expansion of thermals via baroclinic vorticity generation but doing little to break vertical symmetry of the flow. Vertical asymmetry of the azimuthally averaged flow of turbulent thermals is attributed mainly to small-scale resolved eddies that are concentrated in the upper part of the thermals.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2021

A meteorological overview of the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign over the southeastern Atlantic during 2016–2018: Part 1 – Climatology

In 2016–2018, the ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) project undertook 3-month-long deployments to the southeastern (SE) Atlantic Ocean using research aircraft to better understand the impact of biomass burning (BB) aerosol transport to the SE Atlantic Ocean on climate. In this (part 1 of the meteorological overview) paper, the climatological features at monthly timescales are investigated. The southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S), defined as the zonal easterlies over 600-700 hPa exceeding 6 m s-1 around 5-15°S, is a characteristic feature of the mid-level circulation over southern Africa that was also during the deployment months of August 2017, September 2016, and October 2018. Climatologically, the AEJ-S develops at lower altitudes (~3 km; 700 hPa) between 5-10° S in August, while it develops at around 4 km (~600 hPa) and further south (5-15 °S) in September and October, largely driven by the strong sensible heating over the African plateau. Notable meteorological anomalous characteristics during the 3 deployment months, compared to climatology (2000-2018), include the following: (1) during August 2017, the AEJ-S was weaker than the climatological mean, with an additional anomalous upper-level jet aloft (~6 km) around 10 °S. August 2017 was also drier over the SE Atlantic at 600-700 hPa than climatology, with a stronger Benguela low-level jet (LLJ) at 925-950 hPa along the Namibian coast of the SE Atlantic. Consistent with this, the southern Atlantic anticyclone was also stronger and closer to the coast than the August climatological mean. (2) During September 2016, the AEJ-S intensity was similar to the climatological mean, although the heat low and vertical motion over the land was slightly stronger compared to the September climatology. The LLJ and the large-scale southern Atlantic anticyclone were stronger than the climatological mean. (3) During October 2018, the AEJ-S was slightly weaker compared to the climatological mean, as was the LLJ and the southern Atlantic anticyclone. October 2018 was wetter over the Benguela coastal region at 600 hPa than the climatological mean. During all the deployment months, the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the SE Atlantic were warmer than the climatological means, but the monthly mean low cloud fraction was only noticeably reduced in August 2017. A weak August 2017 AEJ-S can explain low offshore black carbon (BC) mixing ratios within the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis, although the BC peak altitude, at 2-3 km, is below that of the AEJ-S. The upper-level wave disturbance and the associated anomalous circulation also explain the weakening of AEJ-S through the reduction of the strength of the heat low over the land during August 2017.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

X-Band Radar and Surface-Based Observations of Cold-Season Precipitation in Western Colorado’s Complex Terrain

Abstract Hydrologic processes associated with intermountain cold-season precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin have important impacts on avalanche forecasting and water resource management. However, traditional weather radar networks struggle with observations in this complex terrain. Data collected during the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and the Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) and its sister campaign, Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) in the East River watershed of western Colorado, are used to examine a multistorm period from 23 December 2021 to 1 January 2022 that contributed 35% of the total winter precipitation in this watershed. Dual-polarization X-band radar and disdrometer measurements show ∼30-mm differences in precipitation amount at two sites in proximity over four distinct storm events within the period. Wind patterns, synoptic forcings, microphysical characteristics of precipitation, and surface meteorology are analyzed to explain the observed spatial variability of cold-season precipitation in complex mountainous terrain. Analysis shows that differences over time within this event are mainly accounted for by synoptic forcings, such as frontal passages; differences between sites are accounted for by the impact of variations in local wind patterns on precipitation microphysics. Patterns of surface precipitation intensity are compared and found to be correlated with X-band radar signatures; a relationship between a strong dendritic growth stage and intense low-density surface precipitation is reinforced by this study. This relationship demonstrates the importance of particle growth mechanisms on surface snowfall patterns in high-altitude complex terrain, underscoring the importance of realistic microphysical parameterizations. Significance Statement The amount and density of snowpack from western Colorado winter storms have significant impacts on water resources in the Upper Colorado River basin. Snowpack characteristics are affected by small-scale differences in how snow forms in the atmosphere. These differences are hard to study in the complex terrain of the Rockies, but data from the SPLASH and SAIL field campaigns allows us to investigate how snow crystal formation and mountain-driven wind patterns affect snow near the surface. Our study finds that snow crystal growth varies over small space and time scales and is likely controlled by the terrain beneath a given location and resultant local wind patterns. These results imply that predicting snowpack in the Rockies requires properly representing local wind patterns and crystal growth processes in models.

Heflin, Stella↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability

Naturally occurring tropical Pacific variations at timescales of 7–70 years — tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) — describe basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST), sea-level pressure and heat content anomalies. Several mechanisms are proposed to explain TPDV, which can originate through oceanic processes, atmospheric processes or as an El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) residual. In this Review, we synthesize knowledge of these mechanisms, their characteristics and contribution to TPDV. Oceanic processes include off-equatorial Rossby waves, which mediate oceanic adjustment and contribute to variations in equatorial thermocline depth and SST; variations in the strength of the shallow upper-ocean overturning circulation, which exhibit a large anti-correlation with equatorial Pacific SST at interannual and decadal timescales; and the propagation of salinity-compensated temperature (spiciness) anomalies from the subtropics to the equatorial thermocline. Atmospheric processes include midlatitude internal variability leading to tropical and subtropical wind anomalies, which result in equatorial SST anomalies and feedbacks that enhance persistence; and atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic and Indian Ocean SST variability, which induce winds conducive to decadal anomalies of the opposite sign in the Pacific. Although uncertain, the tropical adjustment through Rossby wave activity is likely a dominant mechanism. Finally, a deeper understanding of the origin and spectral characteristics of TPDV-related winds is a key priority.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reformulation of dicamba herbicide: Impacts on offsite transport and soybean damage

Abstract The herbicide dicamba (3,6‐dichloro‐2‐methoxybenzoic acid) is commonly used to control broadleaf weeds in soybeans. Dicamba, however, is susceptible to volatilization and drift, thereby causing significant plant damage to nontarget crops downwind. Dicamba was reformulated to reduce volatility and off‐target movement. The effectiveness of the dicamba reformulation was assessed by quantifying dicamba emissions following spray application and investigated how meteorological factors influenced the off‐target movement. The experiments were conducted at the University of Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station (UMORE Park) during the growing season of 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022. Multiple high‐flow polyurethane foam air samplers were used to measure dicamba concentrations downwind from a 4‐ha soybean field sprayed with dicamba. Dicamba emissions were estimated using backward Lagrangian modeling constrained by the air sample observations. The results indicate that dicamba emissions and downwind transport were significant for several days following application. Further, non‐traited soybeans located within 15–45 m showed substantial dicamba‐related damage. In warmer, drier seasons, increased dicamba emissions caused more severe damage to downwind soybeans, likely worsened by drought stress preventing recovery. Favorable atmospheric conditions that reduced potential drift can be difficult to achieve in terms of the typical weather experienced over agricultural sites in the Upper Midwest. These results indicate that the dicamba reformulation has not adequately prevented significant post‐spray volatilization losses and downwind transport.

Agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2025

Local control of perpendicular magnetic anisotropy of Pd/Co multilayers via ion bombardment

In this work, we have controlled locally the magnetic anisotropy of PdCo multilayers using ion beam modification. First, we have used techniques with different probing depths to confirm that cobalt is partially oxidized in the Pd/Co multilayers exhibiting PMA fabricated by sputtering, presumably due to the diffusion of atmospheric oxygen migrated through the Pd capping layer. Then, low energy ion bombardment has been employed to induce a structural disorder in the upper layers of the multilayer, gradually reducing the PMA at local scale with increasing ion doses. Medium ion doses lead to a marked decline in PMA, resulting in equivalent magnetic anisotropy directions and the loss of characteristic labyrinthine magnetic domain morphology. High ion doses completely suppress PMA, yielding a typical in-plane shape anisotropy. Furthermore, by combining controlled PMA reduction via lithographic techniques, we create elongated structures displaying distinct magnetic responses; bombarded regions exhibit reduced PMA, whereas adjacent regions maintain their PMA. Notably, regions with reduced PMA do not disrupt the distribution of perpendicular magnetic domains in neighboring PMA regions, even at widths as narrow as 500 nm, demonstrating the robustness of the PMA domain structure.

Sebastiani-Tofano, Eugenia [Universidad Complutens↗

DOE OSTI2025

Phosphorus budgets of intensively managed row crops at a long–term agroecosystem research site in the upper US Midwest

Phosphorus (P) budgets for cropping systems provide insights for keeping soil P at optimal levels for crops while avoiding excess inputs. We quantified 12 years of P inputs (fertilizer and atmospheric deposition) and outputs (harvest and leaching losses) for replicated maize (Zea mays L.)—soybean (Glycine max L.)—wheat (Triticum aestivum) crop rotations under conventional, no-till, reduced input, and biologically based (organic without compost or manure) management systems at the Kellogg Biological Station LTAR site in southwest Michigan. Conventional, no-till, and reduced input systems were fertilized between 13 and 50 kg P ha –1 depending on year. Soil test phosphorus (STP) was measured at 0- to 25-cm depth every autumn. Leached P was measured as dissolved P in the soil solution sampled beneath the rooting depth and combined with modeled percolation. Fertilization and harvest were the predominant P fluxes in the fertilized systems, whereas only harvest dominated P flux in the unfertilized organic system. Leaching losses were minor terms in the budgets, but leachate concentrations were nevertheless close to the range of concern for downstream eutrophication. Over the 12-year study period, the organic system exhibited a negative P balance (–82.0 kg P ha –1 ), coinciding with suboptimal STP levels, suggesting a need for P supplementation. In contrast, the fertilized systems showed positive P balances (mean: 70.1 kg P ha –1 ) with STP levels well above agronomic optima. Results underscore the importance of tailored P management strategies to sustain crop productivity while mitigating environmental impacts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model spread in tropical low cloud feedback tied to overturning circulation response to warming

Among models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), here we show that the magnitude of the tropical low cloud feedback, which contributes considerably to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, is intimately linked to tropical deep convection and its effects on the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation. First, a reduction in tropical ascent area and an increased frequency of heavy precipitation result in high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying, which increases longwave cooling and reduces subsidence weakening, favoring low cloud reduction (Radiation-Subsidence Pathway). Second, increased longwave cooling decreases tropospheric stability, which also reduces subsidence weakening and low cloudiness (Stability-Subsidence Pathway). In summary, greater high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying (negative longwave feedback) lead to a more positive cloud feedback among CMIP6 models by contributing to a greater reduction in low cloudiness (positive shortwave feedback). Varying strengths of the two pathways contribute considerably to the intermodel spread in climate sensitivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nature-based climate solutions can help mitigate the radiative forcing that follows deforestation

Widespread expansion of agriculture and forestry has altered the surface of the Earth, the composition of the atmosphere, and as a result, the climate. Here we quantify the radiative forcing caused by the historical deforestation of an ecoregion in the U.S. Upper Midwest and the adoption of eight nature-based climate solutions. We combined regional forest inventory data with over three decades of remote sensing and in situ data from a replicated land use change experiment. Deforestation of the region caused net global warming (1626 ± 44 µW m -2 ), mainly from the 76 % reduction of ecosystem carbon stocks, but also from the 84 % reduction of the soil methane sink and the 115 % increase in soil nitrous oxide emissions. The associated albedo increase offset 24 % of this greenhouse gas induced warming. For the adoption of nature-based climate solutions, we found that conservation agriculture can provide -39 to -76 ± 31 µW m -2 of climate mitigation over a 100-year time period while short/medium length forestry rotations can provide more at -296 to -881 ± 44 µW m -2 and natural forest regeneration can provide the most at -1555 ± 44 µW m -2 . As the impacts of climate change on nature and society intensify, consideration should be given to the climate mitigation, habitat, and ecosystem services that nature-based climate solutions can provide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data From: "Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater"

This repository contains the data and code associated with the paper titled "Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater," published in Nature Geoscience, 2026. This study seeks to answer how various ages of groundwater interact with mountainous streamflow in mountainous headwaters such as the East River. It includes various model-data processing scripts, primarily for ParFlow-CLM analysis of simulated water years 2015-2021, and two numerical warming experiments (+2.5 and +4.0 degrees C), including run scripts, forcing scripts, and post-processing, as well as comparison to observation datasets, detailed below. This data requires the use of R (.r, .rmd), Python (.py), Jupyter Notebook or Jupyter Lab (.ipynb), ParFLOW-CLM, EcoSLIM. Further information on the use of all file formats mentioned below (e.g. .tff. .nc) are provided within the associated scripts and directory where the files are located. Contents & Usage ASO/: Contains the bash and python scripts used to convert airborne snow observatory (ASO) data (ASO, 2023) in various data formats (georeferenced tiff file, NetCDF, UTM, and to latitude/longitude) then regrided to the ParFlow equivalent grid. Output data are in regrid_regll_data.zip and subsequently visualized and analyzed in plot_and_compare.py for Supplementary Figures A14 and A15. The wksht_ASO_comparison.xlsx spreadsheet is used to calculate the data for Supplementary Figure A16. EcoSLIM/: Contains the scripts and input files to run the EcoSLIM particle tracking simulations (/run_scripts) and the post-processing python script (/plot_scripts/eco_agedist_plots.ipynb). Jasechko et al./: Contains the jupyter notebook (Extract_Elevation.ipynb) to determine the outlet elevations of the 260 watersheds used in Jasechko et al. (2016), and the corresponding table, Table_S1_Watersheds_alt.csv. Used to create Supplementary Information Figure A2. PLM_Wells/: Contains the QA/QC-ed groundwater level time series of the PLM-1 and PLM-6 Monitoring Wells from Faybishenko et al. (2023), reformatted to water years used for Supplementary Figures A19 and and A20. ParFlow/: Contains the input files and run scripts to run ParFlow-CLM (/run_scripts), the python and tool command language (Tcl) scripts to create and distribute the ParFlow forcing simulation files (/forcing), and various scripts and intermediary files to analyze the model outputs (/post_process). SQUIRE/: Contains the processing scripts and intermediary files for the Surface QUantitatIve pRecipitation Estimation (SQUIRE) data (Grover, 2023) used to generate Supplementary Figure A18. USGS_Streamflow/: Contains the raw and gap-filled United States Geological Survey streamflow data (U.S. Geological Survey, 2026) used at the Almont station (site number 09112500). Gap-filling is performed in the R script with data from the Taylor station (site number 09110000). (/USGS_09112500_EAST_RIVER_AT_ALMONT_GAP_FILLED/code_almont_streamflow_gap_fill.Rmd). discharge/: Contains the gap-filled discharge data at the Watershed Function SFA East River pumphouse site (Newcomer et al., 2022) used to generate Supplementary Figure A13 and to compute hourly Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients (NSE) in Table A4. snotel_and_flux_tower/: Contains the snow telemetry data (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024) from the Butte (site ID 380) and Schofield (site ID 737) stations, reformatted by water year, accessed with the snotelr R package. Used to create Supplementary Figure A17. Also contains the flux tower observational data (FluxTower_Pumphouse_ESS-DIVE.ET_only.h.txt) from Ryken et al. (2022) and sap flux transpiration data (MaxB_Transpiration_5Sites.daily_sums.h.txt) from Ryken (2021), used to create Supplementary Figures A22 and A23, respectively. Raw EcoSLIM model outputs are in excess of 24TB, and are stored on National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) and publicly available via the external link provided in the paper.

atmospheric warming↗

DOE OSTI2024

BD+44°493: Chemo-dynamical Analysis and Constraints on Companion Planetary Masses from WIYN/NEID Spectroscopy

In this work, we present high-resolution (R ~ 100,000), high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N ~ 800) spectroscopic observations for the well-known, bright, extremely metal-poor, carbon-enhanced star BD+44°493. We determined chemical abundances and upper limits for 17 elements from WIYN/NEID data, complemented with 11 abundances redetermined from Subaru and Hubble data, using the new, more accurate, stellar atmospheric parameters calculated in this work. Our analysis suggests that BD+44°493 is a low-mass (0.83 M ⊙ ), old (12.1–13.2 Gyr) second-generation star likely formed from a gas cloud enriched by a single metal-free 20.5 M ⊙ Population III star in the early Universe. With a disk-like orbit, BD+44°493 does not appear to be associated with any major merger event in the early history of the Milky Way. From the precision radial-velocity NEID measurements (median absolute deviation = 16 m s –1 ), we were able to constrain companion planetary masses around BD+44°493 and rule out the presence of planets as small as $m\sin i=2$ M J out to periods of 100 days. This study opens a new avenue of exploration for the intersection between stellar archaeology and exoplanet science using NEID.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Seasonal Precipitation Classification during Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory Campaign

The Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign, conducted from September 2021 to June 2023 in Crested Butte, Colorado, aimed to characterize precipitation processes in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). This increased observations of snowfall accumulation in this hydrologically significant watershed would be useful for quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE). Therefore, the Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (SQUIRE) product was developed using the ARM-supported Colorado State University (CSU) X-band Precipitation Radar. Although SQUIRE will be only released for snowfall, by categorizing precipitation types, users can effectively utilize relevant datasets under diverse meteorological conditions. Moreover, the dataset facilitates validation of the QPE product and the analysis of seasonal variations in precipitation types at the surface. Hydrometeors classes are organized based on their phase and physical characteristics mapping the CSU (both winter Summer) and Py-ART classifications into four groups. 1. Liquid Precipitation: includs drizzle, rain, and large raindrops. 2. Frozen Snow and Ice : Pure Snow, combining ice crystals, aggregates, and vertically oriented ice structures. 3. Dense and Large frozen hydrometeors: including low- and high-density graupel and dry hail. 4.Melting: Wet Snow and Melting Hail, hydrometeors exhibiting both liquid and frozen characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal Cycle of Idealized Polar Clouds: Large Eddy Simulations Driven by a GCM

The uncertainty in polar cloud feedbacks calls for process understanding of the cloud response to climate warming. As an initial step toward improved process understanding, we investigate the seasonal cycle of polar clouds in the current climate by adopting a novel modeling framework using large eddy simulations (LES), which explicitly resolve cloud dynamics. Resolved horizontal and vertical advection of heat and moisture from an idealized GCM are prescribed as forcing in the LES. The LES are also forced with prescribed sea ice thickness, but surface temperature, atmospheric temperature, and moisture evolve freely without nudging. A semigray radiative transfer scheme without water vapor and cloud feedbacks allows the GCM and LES to achieve closed energy budgets more easily than would be possible with more complex schemes. This enables the mean states in the two models to be consistently compared, without the added complications from interaction with more comprehensive radiation. Furthermore, we show that the LES closely follow the GCM seasonal cycle, and the seasonal cycle of low-level clouds in the LES resembles observations: maximum cloud liquid occurs in late summer and early autumn, and winter clouds are dominated by ice in the upper troposphere. Large-scale advection of moisture provides the main source of water vapor for the liquid-containing clouds in summer, while a temperature advection peak in winter makes the atmosphere relatively dry and reduces cloud condensate. The framework we develop and employ can be used broadly for studying cloud processes and the response of polar clouds to climate warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reduction of Pacific Double‐ITCZ Bias by Convection Parameterization in NCAR CESM2.2

Abstract The impact of convective closure on the double‐ITCZ bias in the NCAR CESM2.2 is investigated in this study. The standard CESM2.2 simulates a remarkable double‐ITCZ bias in the central and eastern Pacific, especially in boreal winter and spring. Modifications to the closure in convection parameterization scheme greatly reduce the double‐ITCZ bias in all seasons, demonstrating that convection parameterization can substantially influence the double‐ITCZ bias in CESM2.2. Further analyses suggest that convection parameterization can modulate the tropical atmosphere‐ocean feedback processes, through which it influences the SST in the southern ITCZ region and hence the double‐ITCZ bias. The changes in the upper ocean temperature advection induced by modified convective closure plays important roles in reducing the warm SST bias and double‐ITCZ precipitation bias in the southern ITCZ region. The modified convective closure improves the low‐level cloud and shortwave cloud radiative forcing in the southeastern Pacific. However, surface heat flux plays only a limited role in reducing warm SST bias and double ITCZ bias because the impacts of shortwave radiation changes are largely canceled by changes in longwave radiation and latent heat flux.

Song, Xiaoliang [Scripps Institution of Oceanograp↗

DOE OSTI2022

Benthic Kinetic Energy in an Earth System Model and Observations

The benthic layer of the ocean is closely correlated with every upper layer above it. Close analysis of benthic layer stress can yield an accurate depiction of the state of the ocean, as well as the atmosphere above it. Through the use of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we took a look at how these features changed over time in a simulation spanning the historical period from 1958 to 2018 in the Arctic Ocean north of 60° N. Making use of E3SM’s regional refinement capability to place higher resolution in regions of interest, the E3SM-Arctic configuration has ~10 km resolution in the ocean and sea ice components in this region, coarsening up to ~60 km outside of the Arctic (Veneziani et al. 2022). In particular, we narrowly focused on the benthic kinetic energy levels, and how trends changed over time. To validate the fidelity of the E3SM model, we compared model current speed outputs over a 369-day period in the Bering Strait to actual recorded observations during this time period. Our analysis of the benthic kinetic energy mean, standard deviation, and trend throughout this time period can be used to characterize the effects of environmental impacts in the Arctic Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Extremal Dependence to Better Characterize the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract In late June, 2021, a devastating heatwave affected the US Pacific Northwest and western Canada, breaking numerous all-time temperature records by large margins and directly causing hundreds of fatalities. The observed 2021 daily maximum temperature across much of the U.S. Pacific Northwest exceeded upper bound estimates obtained from single-station temperature records even after accounting for anthropogenic climate change, meaning that the event could not have been predicted under standard univariate extreme value analysis assumptions. In this work, we utilize a flexible spatial extremes model that considers all stations across the Pacific Northwest domain and accounts for the fact that many stations simultaneously experience extreme temperatures. Our analysis incorporates the effects of anthropogenic forcing and natural climate variability in order to better characterize time-varying changes in the distribution of daily temperature extremes. We show that greenhouse gas forcing, drought conditions and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability all have significant impact on summertime maximum temperatures in this region. Our model represents a significant improvement over corresponding single-station analysis, and our posterior medians of the upper bounds are able to anticipate more than 96% of the observed 2021 high station temperatures after properly accounting for extremal dependence. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Zhang, Likun (ORCID:0000000154584556)↗