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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

Estimating the electric vehicle charging demand of multi-unit dwelling residents in the United States

Abstract Early battery electric vehicle (EV) adopters can access home chargers for reliable charging. As the EV market grows, residents of multi-unit dwellings (MUDs) may face barriers in owning EVs and charging them without garage or parking availability. To investigate the mechanisms that can bridge existing disparities in home charging and station deployment, we characterized the travel behavior of MUD residents and estimated their EV residential charging demand. This study classifies the travel patterns of MUD residents by fusing trip diary data from the National Household Travel Survey and housing features from the American Housing Survey. A hierarchical agglomerative clustering method was used to cluster apartment complex residents’ travel profiles, considering attributes such as dwell time, daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT), income, and their residences’ US census division. We propose a charging decision model to determine the charging station placement demand in MUDs and the charging energy volume expected to be consumed, assuming that MUD drivers universally operate EVs in urban communities. Numerical experiments were conducted to gain insight into the charging demand of MUD residents in the US. We found that charging availability is indispensable for households that set out to meet 80% state of charge by the end of the day. When maintaining a 20% comfortable state of charge the entire day, the higher the VMT are, the greater the share of charging demand and the greater the energy use in MUD chargers. The upper-income group requires a greater share of MUD charging and greater daily kWh charged because of more VMT.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Electric Transit Bus Depots in the United States

Transit buses operate primarily in dense urban areas, where nearby populations face increased exposure to fine particulates, nitrogen oxides, and other harmful pollutants. Electrifying transit buses presents a clear opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve urban air quality. However, widespread adoption may pose significant energy and infrastructure challenges, which can be mitigated through proactive planning and investment. This report presents a robust modeling framework and an initial estimation of the hourly electricity demand at transit bus depots across the United States. The resulting depot-level dataset, available at data.nrel.gov/submissions/282, provides valuable insights for infrastructure planning and electricity demand forecasting, supporting the scalable electrification of transit bus fleets nationwide.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Electricity demand in South Asia – data gaps and pathways for research and modeling

South Asia is one of the fastest growing regions - economically and energy-wise in the world. However, there are significant uncertainties in how the energy demand would grow given the rapidly rising incomes, urbanization, industrialization, access to energy, warming climate and technological change. The transition to clean energy in the region is a priority and is critical to limiting emissions in the region and increasing regional energy security. The power sector will play an important role in decarbonization of energy systems, lowering emissions in other sectors through electrification. However, as existing end uses are scaled up more and new end uses are electrified, the temporal and spatial patterns of electricity consumption could change. These changes have implications for the magnitude, shape, and timing of peak demand, which in turn affects the power sector’s investments and operations, and ability to provide reliable power. In this report, we outline key uncertainties in demand growth that South Asian countries would face in the near to medium term, along with summarizing insights from stakeholder consultations we held over the past 6 months.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SMART Mobility. Modeling Workflow Development, Implementation, and Results Capstone Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation (SMART) Mobility Consortium is a multiyear, multi-laboratory collaborative, managed by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Program of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office, dedicated to further understanding the energy implications and opportunities of advanced mobility technologies and services. The first three-year research phase of SMART Mobility occurred from 2017 through 2019, and included five research pillars: Connected and Automated Vehicles, Mobility Decision Science, Multi-Modal Freight, Urban Science, and Advanced Fueling Infrastructure. A sixth research thrust integrated aspects of all five pillars to develop a SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow to evaluate new transportation technologies and services at scale. This report summarizes the work of the SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow effort. The SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow was developed to evaluate new transportation technologies such as connectivity, automation, sharing, and electrification through multi-level systems analysis that captures the dynamic interactions between technologies. By integrating multiple models across different levels of fidelity and scale, the Workflow yields insights about the influence of new mobility and vehicle technologies at the system level. For information about the other Pillars, please refer to the relevant pillar’s Capstone Report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrated Urban Services: Program Impact and Business Plan Summary

The Integrated Urban Services (IUS) program, launched in 2021 and funded by the U.S. State Department under the United States-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (US-ASEAN) Smart Cities Partnership, aimed to bolster resilience in ASEAN cities by addressing challenges across food, energy, and water systems. Led by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) with support from Regenerative Impact Ventures, the program focused on demonstrating the socio-economic benefits of integrated urban planning, educating stakeholders on circular economy principles, providing technical assistance to two ASEAN cities, and attracting private sector involvement. The program facilitated peer learning events, engaging public and private sector participants and leveraging knowledge from a group of global experts to inform approaches and best practices. Technical assistance was provided to two pilot cities, Iskandar Malaysia and Cagayan de Oro, Philippines, resulting in the development of market-driven business plans for resilient, circular, and regenerative energy-water-food system projects. The Iskandar Malaysia pilot focused on development of a state-of-the-art AgriTech Innovation Hub and Modern Farming Complex to enhance agricultural productivity and produce enough renewable energy to power the facilities. The Cagayan de Oro project aimed to enhance urban agricultural productivity and waste management through development of an Urban Precision Agricultural Complex featuring aeroponics, hydroponics, aquaponics, agrivoltaics, and a Black Solider Fly Facility for converting municipal solid waste into commodities. The success of the IUS program sets a precedent for replicating integrated urban service models globally, offering valuable insights for cities aiming to enhance their resilience and sustainability.

ASEAN↗

Impact of Electric Vehicle Charging Station Reliability, Resilience, and Location on Electric Vehicle Adoption

While the majority of electric vehicle (EV) charging events in the United States occur at home, issues with public charging stations are consistently found to be a top reason that potential EV buyers do not purchase an EV, demonstrating that both EVSE reliability and availability impacts EV adoption. This report explores multiple parameters that impact EVSE reliability and deployment, which in turn impact EV sales. These include extreme weather, codes and standards, region (urban vs. rural), and grid network type. Grid reliability was not found to impact EV adoption. The relationships between EV station reliability, station resilience, grid resilience, and EV adoption are largely outside the scope of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) and other vehicle adoption models, so the methodology of this report is varied. Section 2 sets the baseline for infrastructure reliability, user satisfaction, and maintenance practices. Section 3 explores the ways that electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) reliability impacts the relationship between EVSE and EV adoption. Section 4 shows how geographical categories such as urban, rural, large grid, off-grid, or microgrid can be helpful in EVSE deployment strategies, as well as how the relationship between EVSE and EV adoption differs among these categories. Section 5 investigates the impacts of grid reliability and infrastructure resilience on EV adoption. Finally, Section 6 reverses the perspective to examine the impact that EVs and EVSE have on grid resilience and reliability. As recent funding initiatives result in an expansion of public chargers across the United States, as well as an increase in the uptime of existing chargers, EV adoption will likely grow.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models

Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) offer essential tools to determine the limits of inference of a model and explore the factors which have the most effect on the model outputs. However, despite a well established body of work applying UA and SA to models of individual buildings, a review of the literature relating to energy models for larger groups of buildings undertaken by Fennell et al. (2019) highlighted very limited application at larger scales. This contribution describes the efforts undertaken by a group of research teams in the context of IEA-EBC Annex 70 working with a diverse set of Building Stock Models (BSMs) to apply global sensitivity analysis methods and compare their results. Since BSMs are a class of model defined by their output and coverage rather than their structure and inputs, they represent a diverse set of modelling approaches. Key challenges for the application of SA are identified and explored, including the influence of model form, input data types and model outputs. This study combines results from 7 different modelling teams, each using different models across a range of urban areas to explore these challenges and begin the process of developing standardised workflows for SA of BSMs.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

An Optimization-Based Planning Tool for On-Demand Mobility Service Operations

Regions worldwide are adopting and exploring low-speed automated electric shuttle (AES) service as an on-demand shared mobility service in dense geofenced urban areas. Building on this concept, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recently developed the Automated Mobility District (AMD) toolkit. The AMD toolkit—comprising of a travel micro-simulation model and an energy estimation model—estimates the mobility and energy impacts of a given shuttle configuration within an AMD. Early-stage AMD deployments need to find optimal operational configurations that include: (a) passenger capacity of an AES, (b) time-dependent routes, and (c) fleet size (AES units) to satisfy the demand for the region. This research extends the AMD toolkit functionality by developing an optimization-based planning module that will assist in the operations of AES units. We developed a constrained mixed-integer program accounting for passenger waiting time, battery range, and passenger capacity of AES units. For scalability, we demonstrated the Tabu search-based solution technique for a real-world network—a proposed AMD deployment in Greenville, South Carolina, USA. Compared to rule-based operations, our developed solution yields higher travel time and energy savings for the network at different demand levels. The sensitivity analyses for waiting time thresholds indicate nonlinearity in the system performance, underscoring the need to meet shared-use mobility user-level expectations. The developed optimization framework can be adapted and extended to accommodate different categories of shared-use on-demand mobility services.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Evaluating Acoustic vs. AI-Based Satellite Leak Detection in Aging US Water Infrastructure: A Cost and Energy Savings Analysis

The aging water distribution system in the United States, constructed mainly during the 1970s with some pipes dating back 125 years, is experiencing significant deterioration leading to substantial water losses. Along with the potential for water loss savings, improvements in the distribution system by using leak detection technologies can create net energy and cost savings. In this work, a new framework has been presented to calculate the economic level of leakage within water supply and distribution systems for two primary leak detection technologies (acoustic vs. satellite). In this work, a new framework is presented to calculate the economic level of leakage (ELL) within water supply and distribution systems to support smart infrastructure in smart cities. A case study focused using water audit data from Atlanta, Georgia, compared the costs of two leak mitigation technologies: conventional acoustic leak detection and artificial intelligence–assisted satellite leak detection technology, which employs machine learning algorithms to identify potential leak signatures from satellite imagery. The ELL results revealed that conducting one survey would be optimum for an acoustic survey, whereas the method suggested that it would be expensive to utilize satellite-based leak detection technology. However, results for cumulative financial analysis over a 3-year period for both technologies revealed both to be economically favorable with conventional acoustic leak detection technology generating higher net economic benefits of USD 2.4 million, surpassing satellite detection by 50%. A broader national analysis was conducted to explore the potential benefits of US water infrastructure mirroring the exemplary conditions of Germany and The Netherlands. Achieving similar infrastructure leakage index (ILI) values could result in annual cost savings of $\$4$–$\$4.8$ billion and primary energy savings of 1.6–1.9 TWh. These results demonstrate the value of combining economic modeling with advanced leak detection technologies to support sustainable, cost-efficient water infrastructure strategies in urban environments, contributing to more sustainable smart living outcomes.

acoustic leak detection↗

SMART Mobility. Advanced Fueling Infrastructure Capstone Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation (SMART) Mobility Consortium is a multiyear, multi-laboratory collaborative, managed by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Program of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office, dedicated to further understanding the energy implications and opportunities of advanced mobility technologies and services. The first three-year research phase of SMART Mobility occurred from 2017 through 2019 and included five research pillars: Connected and Automated Vehicles, Mobility Decision Science, Multi-Modal Freight, Urban Science, and Advanced Fueling Infrastructure. A sixth research thrust integrated aspects of all five pillars to develop a SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow to evaluate new transportation technologies and services at scale. This report summarizes the work of the Advanced Fueling Infrastructure Pillar. This Pillar investigated the charging infrastructure needs of electric ride-hailing and car-sharing vehicles, automated shuttle buses, and freight-delivery truck fleets. For information about the other Pillars and about the SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow, please refer to the relevant Pillar’s Capstone Report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Typology for Characterizing Human Action in MultiSector Dynamics Models

The role of individual and collective human agency is increasingly recognized as a prominent and arguably paramount determinant in shaping the behavior, trajectory, and vulnerability of multisector systems. This human influence operates at multiple scales: from short-term (hourly to daily) to long-term (annually to centennial) timescales, and from the local to the global, pushing systems towards either desirable or undesirable outcomes. However, the effort to represent human systems in multisector models has been fragmented across philosophical, methodological, and disciplinary lines. To cohere insights across diverse modeling approaches, we present a new typology for classifying how human actors are represented in the broad suite of coupled human-natural system models that are applied in MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) research. The typology conceptualizes a “sector” as a system-of-systems that includes a diverse group of human actors, defined across individual to collective social levels, involved in governing, provisioning, and utilizing products, goods, or services towards some human end. We trace the salient features of modeled representations of human systems by organizing the typology around three key questions: 1) Who are the modeled actors in MSD systems? 2) What are their modeled actions? 3) How and for what purpose are these actors and actions operationalized in a computational model? The typology is used to critically examine existing models and chart the frontier of future human systems modeling for MSD research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SMART Mobility. Mobility Decision Science Capstone Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation (SMART) Mobility Consortium is a multiyear, multi-laboratory collaborative, managed by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Program of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office, dedicated to further understanding the energy implications and opportunities of advanced mobility technologies and services. The first three-year research phase of SMART Mobility occurred from 2017 through 2019, and included five research pillars: Connected and Automated Vehicles, Mobility Decision Science, Multi-Modal Freight, Urban Science, and Advanced Fueling Infrastructure. A sixth research thrust integrated aspects of all five pillars to develop a SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow to evaluate new transportation technologies and services at scale. This report summarizes the work of the Mobility Decision Science Pillar. The Mobility Decision Science Pillar sought to fill gaps in existing knowledge about the human role in the mobility system including travel decision-making and technology adoption in the context of future mobility. The objective was to study how underlying preferences, needs, and contextual factors might constrain or hasten future transportation system scenarios. For information about the other Pillars and about the SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow, please refer to the relevant pillar’s Capstone Report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE Zero Energy Ready Manufactured Housing: Subject Matter Expert Technical Assistance Summary

Manufactured homes offer American consumers an affordable option for decent single-family detached housing. For working-class American families in many U.S. markets, manufactured homes are the first step toward home ownership. They now make up 10% of all new homes constructed in the United States, with higher percentages in the south and in rural communities. To help encourage the production of homes that are more durable, healthy, efficient, and disaster resistant, the U.S. Department of Energy is bringing its building science research to the manufactured housing industry through DOE’s Zero Energy Ready Manufactured Home (ZER-MH) program, which provides technical assistance and voluntary guidelines to manufactured home builders. Homes built to these guidelines are better able to handle power outages and less likely to experience moisture issues, offering a better product option for American families. This higher quality is evidenced by energy modeling which shows homes manufactured to these voluntary guidelines will typically use half the energy of manufactured homes built to the current minimum requirements of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)’s Manufactured Housing and Construction Safety Standard (MHCSS). These homes can also reduce critical energy demand during the busiest hours of the day, typically late afternoon and early evening in the summer when air conditioning demand is highest and mornings in the winter when furnaces and heaters are heating up. Reducing electricity demand during these peak periods when electricity rates are at their highest reduces costs for American families while freeing up capacity on overburdened energy distribution networks. Builders participating in the DOE ZER-MH program are eligible for a tax incentive via the 45L tax credit, which helps to offset the costs of ZER-MH upgrades, enabling builders to offer these certified homes at no additional cost. Together these factors enable manufactured homes to offer home buyers a housing option that is both affordable to finance and affordable to operate, with lower monthly mortgage payments and lower monthly energy bills.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The mechanisms and seasonal differences of the impact of aerosols on daytime surface urban heat island effect

The urban heat island intensity (UHII) is the temperature difference between urban areas and their rural surroundings. It is commonly attributed to changes in the underlying surface structure caused by urbanization. Air pollution caused by aerosol particles can affect the UHII through changing (1) the surface energy balance by the aerosol radiative effect (ARE) and (2) planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) stability and airflow intensity by modifying thermodynamic structure, which is referred to as the aerosol dynamic effect (ADE). By analyzing satellite data and ground-based observations collected from 2001 to 2010 at 35 cities in China and using the WRF-Chem model, we find that the impact of aerosols on UHII differs considerably: reducing the UHII in summer but increasing the UHII in winter. This seasonal contrast is proposed to be caused by the different strengths of the ARE and ADE between summer and winter. In summer, the ARE on UHII is dominant over the ADE, cooling down surface temperature more strongly in urban areas than in rural areas because of much higher aerosol loading, and offsets the urban heating, therefore weakening UHII. In winter, however, the ADE is more dominant, because aerosols stabilize the PBL more in the polluted condition, weakening the near-surface heat transport over urban areas in both vertical and horizontal directions. This means that the heat accumulated in urban areas is dispersed less effectively, and thus the UHII is enhanced. These findings shed new light on the impact of the interaction between urbanization-induced surface changes and air pollution on urban climate.urban areas and their rural surroundings. It is commonly attributed to changes in the underlying surface structure caused by urbanization. Air pollution caused by aerosol particles can affect the UHII through changing (1) the surface energy balance by the aerosol radiative effect (ARE) and (2) planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) stability and airflow intensity by modifying thermodynamic structure, which is referred to as the aerosol dynamic effect (ADE). By analyzing satellite data and ground-based observations collected from 2001 to 2010 at 35 cities in China and using the WRF-Chem model, we find that the impact of aerosols on UHII differs considerably: reducing the UHII in summer but increasing the UHII in winter. This seasonal contrast is proposed to be caused by the different strengths of the ARE and ADE between summer and winter. In summer, the ARE on UHII is dominant over the ADE, cooling down surface temperature more strongly in urban areas than in rural areas because of much higher aerosol loading, and offsets the urban heating, therefore weakening UHII. In winter, however, the ADE is more dominant, because aerosols stabilize the PBL more in the polluted condition, weakening the near-surface heat transport over urban areas in both vertical and horizontal directions. This means that the heat accumulated in urban areas is dispersed less effectively, and thus the UHII is enhanced. These findings shed new light on the impact of the interaction between urbanization-induced surface changes and air pollution on urban climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fifth-Generation District Heating and Cooling Substations: Demand Response with Artificial Neural Network-Based Model Predictive Control

District heating and cooling (DHC) is considered one of the most sustainable technologies to meet the heating and cooling demands of buildings in urban areas. The fifth-generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) concept, often referred to as ambient loops, is a novel solution emerging in Europe and has become a widely discussed topic in current energy system research. 5GDHC systems operate at a temperature close to the ground and include electrically driven heat pumps and associated thermal energy storage in a building-sited energy transfer station (ETS) to satisfy user comfort. This work presents new strategies for improving the operation of these energy transfer stations by means of a model predictive control (MPC) method based on recurrent artificial neural networks. The results show that, under simple time-of-use utility rates, the advanced controller outperforms a rule-based controller for smart charging of the domestic hot water (DHW) thermal energy storage under specific boundary conditions. By exploiting the available thermal energy storage capacity, the MPC controller is capable of shifting up to 14% of the electricity consumption of the ETS from on-peak to off-peak hours. Therefore, the advanced control implemented in 5GDHC networks promotes coupling between the thermal and the electric sector, producing flexibility on the electric grid.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Long-Term Vehicle Speed Prediction via Historical Traffic Data Analysis for Improved Energy Efficiency of Connected Electric Vehicles

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to provide enhanced safety, mobility, and energy efficiency. While abundant evidence has been accumulated showing substantial energy saving potentials of CAVs through eco-driving, traffic condition prediction has remained to be the main challenge in capitalizing the gains. The coupled power and thermal subsystems of CAVs necessitate the use of different speed preview windows for effective and integrated power and thermal management. Real-time vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications can provide an accurate speed prediction over a short prediction horizon (e.g., 30 s to 60 s), but not for a long range (e.g., over 180 s). Therefore, advanced approaches are required to develop detailed speed prediction for robust optimization-based energy management of CAVs. This paper presents an integrated speed prediction framework based on historical traffic data classification and real-time V2I communications for efficient energy management of electrified CAVs. The proposed framework provides multi-range speed predictions with different fidelity over short and long horizons. The proposed multi-range speed prediction is integrated with an economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the battery thermal management (BTM) of connected and automated electric vehicles (EVs). The simulation results over real-world urban driving cycles confirm the enhanced prediction performance of the proposed data classification strategy over a long prediction horizon. Despite the uncertainty in long-range CAVs’ speed predictions, the vehicle-level simulation results show that 14% and 19% energy savings can be accumulated sequentially through eco-driving and BTM optimization (eco-cooling), respectively, when compared with normal driving (i.e., human driver) and conventional BTM strategy.

Engineering↗

Desert-Urban System Integrated Atmospheric Monsoon (DUSTIEAIM) in the Southwestern United States Science Plan

The Desert-Urban System Integrated Atmospheric Monsoon (DUSTIEAIM) campaign is a groundbreaking, high-impact scientific mission that will transform how we understand and respond to energy and water challenges in one of America’s fastest-growing and most heat-stressed urban regions: Phoenix, Arizona. Starting in April 2026, this 18-month field campaign harnesses the full power of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility and an interdisciplinary science team including national laboratories, universities, and agencies with a broad range of subject-matter expertise. With cutting-edge instruments, active and passive ground-based sensors, radars, and integrated modeling, DUSTIEAIM will deliver the most comprehensive environmental data set ever collected for a desert-urban-agricultural interface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerial and Processed Model Data Representing As-built Conditions in Coastal Port Arthur, Texas in May 2025

This dataset was collected by the Co-Design Team of the Southeast Texas Urban Integrated Field Lab, a research initiative led by the University of Texas at Austin and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. The broader project focuses on developing climate-resilient design solutions for the Beaumont–Port Arthur region, with more information available at www.setx-uifl.org. Our team conducted aerial surveys of the Port Arthur coastal neighborhood in May 2025, before the start of construction scheduled for Summer 2026. These pre-construction datasets are designed to facilitate comparative analyses, including pre- and post-construction assessments and simulated inundation scenario evaluations. Aerial images were captured using DroneDeploy autonomous flight systems, with imagery processed through the DroneDeploy engine. All original aerial photographs are provided in JPG format and organized in zipped folders by area. The processed data package includes: 3D surface models Orthomosaics Geospatial and topographic mappings Point clouds For guidance on file contents, structure, and recommended usage, please refer to the included README file.

2D mapping↗