Results for “Usability” — Page 9

NASA NTRS2017

Mars Molniya Orbit Atmospheric Resource Mining

This NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) Phase I study examined the revolutionary concept of performing resource collection and utilization during Mars orbital operations in order to enable the landing of large payloads. An exploration architecture was developed, out of which several mission alternatives were developed. Concepts of operations were then developed for each mission alternative, followed by concepts for spacecraft systems, which were traded to assess their feasibility. A novel architecture using Mars Molniya Orbit Atmospheric Resource Mining is feasible to enable an Earth-independent and pioneering, permanent human presence on Mars by providing a reusable, single-stage-to-orbit transportation system. This will allow cargo and crew to be routinely delivered to and from Mars without transporting propellants from Earth.In Phase I, our study explored how electrical energy could be harnessed from the kinetic energy of the incoming spacecraft and then be used to produce the oxygen necessary for landing. This concept of operations is revolutionary in that its focus is on using in situ resources in complementary and varied forms: the upper atmosphere of Mars is used for aerocapture, which is followed by aerobraking, the kinetic energy of the spacecraft is transformed into usable electrical energy during aerobraking, and the atmospheric composition is the source of oxidizer for a landing under supersonic retropropulsion. This NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) Phase I study explores a novel mission architecture to establish routine, Earth-independent transfer of large mass payloads between Earth and the Mars surface and back to Mars orbit. The first stage of routine mission operations involves an atmospheric resource mining aerobraking campaign following aerocapture into a highly elliptical Mars orbit. During each pass through the atmosphere, the vehicle ingests the atmospheric oxidizer and stores it onboard, using solid oxide electrolysis to convert the primarily CO2 atmosphere into usable O2 for propellant. Power is made available through the use of magnetohydrodynamic energy generation, which converts the motion of the plasma in the shock later into usable electrical energy. Upon termination of the aerobraking sequence, the descent vehicle detaches from the orbit stack, deorbits, and executes the entry, descent, and landing sequence. Hypersonic deceleration is achieved via a deployable heat shield to lower the vehicle ballistic coefficient, and supersonic and subsonic deceleration are achieved via retropropulsion. Mars surface operations involve resource mining of the Martian regolith to produce CH4 and O2 propellant to be used for the subsequent MDAV ascent back to high Mars orbit (HMO) providing an apoapsis raise maneuver to initialize the aerobraking sequence, in addition to providing fuel from the Mars surface for EDL propulsive descent. The Resource Collector Vehicle (RCV), which is used for the orbital mining operations, is raised back to HMO via onboard deployable augmented solar electric propulsion. Concepts of operations were developed for each mission alternative, to evaluate between them and assess feasibility.

Mining↗

NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of Crew-Centric Onboard Mission Operations Planning and Execution Tool: Year 2

Currently, mission planning for the International Space Station (ISS) is largely affected by ground operators in mission control. The task of creating a week-long mission plan for ISS crew takes dozens of people multiple days to complete, and is often created far in advance of its execution. As such, re-planning or adapting to changing real-time constraints or emergent issues is similarly taxing. As we design for future mission operations concepts to other planets or areas with limited connectivity to Earth, more of these ground-based tasks will need to be handled autonomously by the crew onboard.There is a need for a highly usable (including low training time) tool that enables efficient self-scheduling and execution within a single package. The ISS Program has identified Playbook as a potential option. It already has high crew acceptance as a plan viewer from previous analogs and can now support a crew self-scheduling assessment on ISS or on another mission. The goals of this work, a collaboration between the Human Research Program and the ISS Program, are to inform the design of systems for more autonomous crew operations and provide a platform for research on crew autonomy for future deep space missions. Our second year of the research effort have included new insights on the crew self-scheduling sessions performed by the crew through use on the HERA (Human Exploration Research Analog) and NEEMO (NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations) analogs. Use on the NEEMO analog involved two self-scheduling strategies where the crew planned and executed two days of EVAs (Extra-Vehicular Activities). On HERA year two represented the first HERA campaign where we were able to perform research tasks. This involved selected flexible activities that the crew could schedule, mock timelines where the crew completed more complex planning exercises, usability evaluation of the crew self-scheduling features, and more insights into the limit of plan complexity that the crew could effectively self-schedule. In parallel we have added in new features and functionality in the Playbook tool based off of our insights from crew self-scheduling in the NASA analogs. In particular this year we have added in the ability for the crew to add, edit, and remove their own activities in the Playbook tool, expanding the type of planning and re-planning possible in the tool and opening up the ability for more free form plan creation. The ability to group and manipulate groups of activities from the plan task list was also added, allowing crew members to add predefined sets of activities onto their mission timeline. In addition we also added a way for crew members to roll back changes in their plan, in order to allow an undo like capability. These features expand and complement the initial self-scheduling features added in year one with the goal of making crew autonomous planning more efficient. As part of this work we have also finished developing the first version of our Playbook Data Analysis Tool, a research tool built to interpret and analyze the unobtrusively collected data obtained during the NASA analog missions through Playbook. This data which includes user click interaction as well as plan change information, through the Playbook Data Analysis Tool, allows us to playback this information as if a video camera was mounted over the crewmember's tablet. While the primary purpose of this tool is to allow usability analysis of crew self-scheduling sessions used on the NASA analog, since the data collected is structured, the tool can automatically derive metrics that would be traditionally tedious to achieve without manual analysis of video playback. We will demonstrate and discuss the ability for future derived metrics to be added to the tool. In addition to the current data and results gathered in year two we will also discuss the preparation and goals of our International Space Station (ISS) onboard technology demonstration with Playbook. This technology demonstration will be preformed as part of the CAST payload starting in late 2016.

onboard planning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Knowledge Discovery for Early Failure Assessment of Complex Engineered Systems Using Natural Language Processing

Emerging complex engineered systems may have unexpected safety issues due to novel operational environments, increasing autonomy, human-machine interaction, and other factors. To prevent failures in operation or testing that necessitate costly redesign, it is desirable to predict likely failure modes early in the design process. Text-based information about past engineering failures presents one possible solution by facilitating the retrieval of information that can inform new designs. However, identifying documents containing relevant information and extracting required information can be prohibitively time-consuming when implemented at scale. In this research, an automated natural language processing-based framework is proposed to discover relevant knowledge from documents containing failure-related design information. Documents containing usable information are filtered using sentiment analysis based on a custom lexicon specialized for engineering design and by filtering out documents containing only irrelevant topics. Next, from the identified usable documents, information relating to engineering failures, contributing factors that can be controlled at design time (“risk factors”), and recommended preventative actions are extracted. Semantic similarity is then used to group similar pieces of extracted information for improved generalizability. The proposed framework is applied to NASA’s Lessons Learned Information System (LLIS). The framework can be used to identify documents containing usable failure-related design information from other databases, extract relevant information from these documents, and generalize the acquired knowledge such that it can be applied to novel systems.

Sequoia R. Andrade↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Summary of the virtual Space Radiation “2022 Biospecimen and Tissue Sharing Summit.”

The Space Radiation Element (SRE) of the Human Research Program (HRP) aims to establish a robust biospecimen and tissue sharing collection (BTSC) to improve sample collection, tracking, access, distribution, and usability to maximize scientific return with intention. Leveraging biospecimens and tissues from prior experiments helps HRP achieve its scientific goals to characterize and mitigate the human health impacts of spaceflight by maximizing resources. The project intends to expand on the National Aeronautics and Space Agency’s (NASA) current resources and institutional knowledge to provide ongoing modernization to improve the usability and access to the current biospecimen archive. SRE organized and held a three-day virtual workshop September 13-15, 2022, to engage with the research community with the following goals: - Share information about: - Space Radiation’s current Biospecimen and Tissue Sharing Project; - Software implementation to track biospecimens; - NASA’s current tissue sharing capabilities and projects; and - Collect community feedback on how to develop, streamline, and optimize accessible and usable processes. The first two days featured speakers internal and external to NASA who presented on current resources, best practices, lessons learned, and researcher perspectives. On the third day, a set of key questions were presented, and participants were invited to discuss and provide input.

Shelita Hall Augustus↗

NASA NTRS2024

Optimizing Sample Collection and Accessibility through the Biospecimen and Tissue Sharing Collection (BTSC) Program

The Space Radiation Element (SRE) of the Human Research Program (HRP) is dedicated to establishing a robust biospecimen and tissue sharing collection (BTSC) program that enhances sample collection, tracking, access, distribution, and usability, with the goal of maximizing scientific return. By leveraging biospecimens and tissues from previous experiments, HRP effectively achieves its scientific objectives in characterizing and mitigating the human health impacts of spaceflight while optimizing resource utilization. To further improve the usability and accessibility of the current biospecimen archive, the project aims to expand upon NASA's existing resources and institutional knowledge, ensuring ongoing modernization. To facilitate seamless navigation of the program's workflow, an educational series on the BTSC program is provided to Principal Investigators (PIs). This comprehensive series equips PIs with crucial information on submitting their inventory via the BTSC Metadata Intake Form, ultimately leading to the public availability of their data on NASA's Life Science Portal (NLSP). Covering various aspects such as metadata submission instructions and backend processes for transferring metadata to the Laboratory Information Management System (LIMS), the series incorporates guidance from NASA's Biological Institutional Scientific Collection (NBISC) and Ames Life Sciences Data Archive (ALSDA). The BTSC program represents a significant stride towards enhancing the usability and accessibility of biospecimens for space research. By enabling NASA to deepen its understanding of the health implications of long-term spaceflight, this initiative plays a pivotal role in ensuring the safety and well-being of astronauts.

Shelita Renee Augustus↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Deck Design of a Hybrid Turbine/Electric Passenger Aircraft

NASA is exploring the development of a 180-passenger subsonic single engine aft turbine aircraft, The aft turbine provides electric power in a hybrid design to wing mounted electric engines, creating a highly efficient, high-bypass-ratio fan equivalent. The SUbsonic Single Aft eNgine (SUSAN) aircraft is being developed as a sustainable subsonic regional aircraft that seeks to reduce emission levels by 50% in the next few decades. Pilot-in-the-loop studies were conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, to explore the flight deck design for the hybrid electric aircraft. Following modern trends in commercial aircraft flight decks with full time augmented controls and a quiet and dark philosophy, single throttle and simplified engine displays were developed for the SUSAN aircraft. The aircraft includes a single aft mounted turbine engine and 16 wing mounted electric fans. The final design was developed from feedback received during an earlier pilot-in-the-loop study where one, two, and three throttles were tested in standard airline operations, including various failures of the turbine and electric engines. Current flight deck designs normally provide control inceptors for each propulsion engine and an engine display for all primary aircraft engine parameters. With full time augmentation expected, a single throttle control with autothrottle always engaged, even during failures, is desired. Augmentation of flight controls using distributed thrust also requires full time control of the electric engines using automation. Additionally, electric engine thrust is augmented during climb based on battery state of charge. Thrust augmentation changes faster than human reaction time and therefore requires full-time automation. A pilot-in-the-loop study was conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, to test the final design of the single throttle with simplified engine displays. Fourteen airline pilots evaluated the single throttle and engine display concept. Electric engine failures included one, four symmetric, and eight non-symmetric electric engine failures. The turbine engine was evaluated for complete and partial failure during critical phases of flight to include takeoff as well as enroute. Unexpected go-arounds increase workload and require significant throttle manipulation. Go-arounds were included to ensure the single throttle was usable for all phases of flight. Failures during takeoff required a return to the departure field and failures enroute required a diversion except for one and four electric engine failures as these failures did not affect aircraft flyability or range. There are currently no Part 25 aircraft certified with hybrid systems or electric engines with batteries as emergency propulsion. For turbine engine failures in the SUSAN aircraft design, range is limited to 30 minutes at full power. Battery state of charge and battery health displays were developed and tested for usability and to determine how well they supported pilot decisions for alternate airports during emergency diversions. Novel displays using shape and color were developed to provide immediate feedback when state of charge became critical. This paper details the pilot study including pilot feedback supporting the potential for increased automation and a single throttle control. Detailed recommendations are provided for a novel single throttle control and additional pilot controls to support selection of engines during start, shutdown, and engine troubleshooting procedures. This design deviates significantly from current practice of providing throttles for each propulsion engine. Engine display recommendations are provided based on pilot feedback during a guided post-evaluation interview. Battery state of charge and battery health display recommendations were collected from all airline crews. The simplified engine displays design was rated excellent as measured with a usability scale. Quantitative metrics include airspeed tracking, time to complete checklists, time to make diversion decisions and the quality of the diversion decision. Recommendations for future studies are documented with supporting research and current observations about upcoming flight deck certifications.

autothrottle↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Models of Human-Automation Systems: Initial Analysis of the Boeing 737MAX Design

We describe a formal approach to identifying human factors design vulnerabilities and usability concerns in the context of automated control systems. We present an initial analysis of the design of the B737MAX that has suffered two fatal accidents. We highlight two main design vulnerabilities and one usability concern. Key formal generic properties used to identify these vulnerabilities and usability concerns are defined. These generic properties, and others referenced in the paper, can be applied to the analysis of any human-automation system.

HSI↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Deck Design of a Hybrid Turbine/Electric Passenger Aircraft

NASA is exploring the development of a 180-passenger subsonic single engine aft turbine aircraft, The aft turbine provides electric power in a hybrid design to wing mounted electric engines, creating a highly efficient, high-bypass-ratio fan equivalent. The SUbsonic Single Aft eNgine (SUSAN) aircraft is being developed as a sustainable subsonic regional aircraft that seeks to reduce emission levels by 50% in the next few decades. Pilot-in-the-loop studies were conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, to explore the flight deck design for the hybrid electric aircraft. Following modern trends in commercial aircraft flight decks with full time augmented controls and a quiet and dark philosophy, single throttle and simplified engine displays were developed for the SUSAN aircraft. The aircraft includes a single aft mounted turbine engine and 16 wing mounted electric fans. The final design was developed from feedback received during an earlier pilot-in-the-loop study where one, two, and three throttles were tested in standard airline operations, including various failures of the turbine and electric engines. Current flight deck designs normally provide control inceptors for each propulsion engine and an engine display for all primary aircraft engine parameters. With full time augmentation expected, a single throttle control with autothrottle always engaged, even during failures, is desired. Augmentation of flight controls using distributed thrust also requires full time control of the electric engines using automation. Additionally, electric engine thrust is augmented during climb based on battery state of charge. Thrust augmentation changes faster than human reaction time and therefore requires full-time automation. A pilot-in-the-loop study was conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, to test the final design of the single throttle with simplified engine displays. Fourteen airline pilots evaluated the single throttle and engine display concept. Electric engine failures included one, four symmetric, and eight non-symmetric electric engine failures. The turbine engine was evaluated for complete and partial failure during critical phases of flight to include takeoff as well as enroute. Unexpected go-arounds increase workload and require significant throttle manipulation. Go-arounds were included to ensure the single throttle was usable for all phases of flight. Failures during takeoff required a return to the departure field and failures enroute required a diversion except for one and four electric engine failures as these failures did not affect aircraft flyability or range. There are currently no Part 25 aircraft certified with hybrid systems or electric engines with batteries as emergency propulsion. For turbine engine failures in the SUSAN aircraft design, range is limited to 30 minutes at full power. Battery state of charge and battery health displays were developed and tested for usability and to determine how well they supported pilot decisions for alternate airports during emergency diversions. Novel displays using shape and color were developed to provide immediate feedback when state of charge became critical. This paper details the pilot study including pilot feedback supporting the potential for increased automation and a single throttle control. Detailed recommendations are provided for a novel single throttle control and additional pilot controls to support selection of engines during start, shutdown, and engine troubleshooting procedures. This design deviates significantly from current practice of providing throttles for each propulsion engine. Engine display recommendations are provided based on pilot feedback during a guided post-evaluation interview. Battery state of charge and battery health display recommendations were collected from all airline crews. The simplified engine displays design was rated excellent as measured with a usability scale. Quantitative metrics include airspeed tracking, time to complete checklists, time to make diversion decisions and the quality of the diversion decision. Recommendations for future studies are documented with supporting research and current observations about upcoming flight deck certifications.

autothrottle↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Self-Scheduling Countermeasures in NASA's HERA Campaign 6

Enhancing crew capabilities for planning and scheduling activities is critical for periods of increased crew autonomy in future long-duration missions where communication delays preclude real-time ground support from Earth. Our study focuses on how to empower astronauts to manage their timelines independently from the experts in the mission control center (MCC). Our objective was to evaluate the impact of scheduling countermeasures on crew scheduling performance, workload, and usability in an analog mission environment. The study involved 16 crew members across four missions in the Limited Autonomy phase of Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) Campaign 6. Crew members used Playbook to schedule one operational day for the entire crew. Half the participants accessed scheduling aids, and we compared their performance to a control group with no aids. Performance, workload, and usability were assessed using time on task, violation counts, NASA Task Load Index (NASA-TLX), and System Usability Scale (SUS). Participants using scheduling aids completed sessions 20% faster and committed 33% fewer violations. While these differences were not statistically significant due to the study’s operational limitations, trends indicate that scheduling aids may reduce errors and improve efficiency. These results can inform the design of scheduling tools to enhance astronauts’ autonomy in long-duration space missions, contributing to improved crew performance and reduced reliance on ground support.

space robotics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Self-Scheduling Countermeasures in NASA's HERA Campaign 6

Enhancing crew capabilities for planning and scheduling activities is critical for periods of increased crew autonomy in future long-duration missions where communication delays preclude real-time ground support from Earth. Our study focuses on how to empower astronauts to manage their timelines independently from the experts in the mission control center (MCC). Our objective was to evaluate the impact of scheduling countermeasures on crew scheduling performance, workload, and usability in an analog mission environment. The study involved 16 crew members across four missions in the Limited Autonomy phase of Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) Campaign 6. Crew members used Playbook to schedule one operational day for the entire crew. Half the participants accessed scheduling aids, and we compared their performance to a control group with no aids. Performance, workload, and usability were assessed using time on task, violation counts, NASA Task Load Index (NASA-TLX), and System Usability Scale (SUS). Participants using scheduling aids completed sessions 20% faster and committed 33% fewer violations. While these differences were not statistically significant due to the study’s operational limitations, trends indicate that scheduling aids may reduce errors and improve efficiency. These results can inform the design of scheduling tools to enhance astronauts’ autonomy in long-duration space missions, contributing to improved crew performance and reduced reliance on ground support.

space robotics↗

NASA NTRS2018

Hierarchical Data Format for Earth Observing System Data Product Developer's Guide

The "Hierarchical Data Format for Earth Observing System" talk will address the best practices for creating ESDIS data products. The work presented is done in support of Data Product Developers Guide Working Group with mission "to help data product developers make data usable for end users". During the presentation, we will use some examples of NASA data products and show how to modify them to make data more usable.

Data usability↗

NASA NTRS2022

Integrating Mission Timelines and Procedures to Enhance Situational Awareness in Human Spaceflight Operations

Future human spaceflight missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond will have significant transmission delays and reduced communications bandwidth compared to operations in Low Earth Orbit, requiring increased crew autonomy due to the limited availability of real-time support from Mission Control Center (MCC). In this paper, we argue for the development of technology to enhance situational awareness (SA) for a remote MCC and astronauts onboard the vehicle, describe a usability study conducted towards this aim, and identify key usability features for the design of future integrated timeline tools. By tightly integrating timelines and procedures, future crew systems can predict future constraint violations, suggest resolutions to these violations, and ultimately support more successful missions.

User experience↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrating Mission Timelines and Procedures to Enhance Situational Awareness in Human Spaceflight Operations

Future human spaceflight missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond will have significant transmission delays and reduced communications bandwidth compared to operations in Low Earth Orbit, requiring increased crew autonomy due to the limited availability of real-time support from Mission Control Center (MCC). In this paper, we argue for the development of technology to enhance situational awareness (SA) for a remote MCC and astronauts onboard the vehicle, describe a usability study conducted towards this aim, and identify key usability features for the design of future integrated timeline tools. By tightly integrating timelines and procedures, future crew systems can predict future constraint violations, suggest resolutions to these violations, and ultimately support more successful missions.

user experience↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing and Testing Two Interfaces for Supplemental Data Service Provider (SDSP) Tools to Support UAS Traffic Management (UTM)

Researchers conducted a usability study using two graphical user interfaces (GUIs) to explore how individuals interpret and interact with different preflight information displays, and to inform the development of Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) preflight planning predictive support tools to assess and mitigate flight hazards and risks. A series of preflight risk-assessment tasks were developed to evaluate participant performance using the Supplemental Data Service Provider-Consolidated Dashboard (SDSP-CD) and the Human Automation Team Interface System (HATIS) GUIs. Participants were trained to use both interfaces and their performance was evaluated. These evaluations focused on participants’ preflight planning activities. Objective data on performance tasks across different scenarios involving multi-UASs, as well as self-reports of interactions and subjective experiences using the GUIs were collected. Scores on the system usability scale (SUS) and on a simple task set were examined, as well as user feedback on open-ended questions, to inform development and identify potential improvements to the interfaces.

sUAAV interfaces↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing and Testing Two Interfaces for Supplemental Data Service Provider (SDSP) Tools to Support UAS Traffic Management (UTM)

Researchers conducted a usability study using two graphical user interfaces (GUIs) to explore how individuals interpret and interact with different preflight information displays, and to inform the development of Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) preflight planning predictive support tools to assess and mitigate flight hazards and risks. A series of preflight risk-assessment tasks were developed to evaluate participant performance using the Supplemental Data Service Provider-Consolidated Dashboard (SDSP-CD) and the Human Automation Team Interface System (HATIS) GUIs. Participants were trained to use both interfaces and their performance was evaluated. These evaluations focused on participants’ preflight planning activities. Objective data on performance tasks across different scenarios involving multi-UASs, as well as self-reports of interactions and subjective experiences using the GUIs were collected. Scores on the system usability scale (SUS) and on a simple task set were examined, as well as user feedback on open-ended questions, to inform development and identify potential improvements to the interfaces.

sUAAV interfaces↗

DOE OSTI2025

ExaCA v2.0: A versatile, scalable, and performance portable cellular automata application for additive manufacturing solidification

The previously established ExaCA software for performance portable alloy grain structure simulation has been updated to better represent the solidification behavior during complex alloy processing conditions, such as those encountered during metal additive manufacturing (AM), and for improved performance and scalability. Here, an extension to the time–temperature history input data format and the core ExaCA algorithm to include an arbitrary number of melting and solidification events yielded improved prediction of texture for various melt pool geometries, expanding the range of AM-relevant conditions that can be accurately simulated. Improved heat transport process simulation coupling, including the creation of large raster datasets from single track time–temperature history data and in-memory coupling with the new, performance portable finite difference code Finch, were also demonstrated in example studies on the effect of multilayer AM microstructure predictions on hatch spacing and cell size, respectively. Additional new features are detailed and demonstrated, including the ability to perform simulations using various interfacial response function forms, execute simulations on state-of-the-art hardware, improved usability through post-processing versatility, and improved strong and weak scaling performance. The performance, physics, and versatility improvements demonstrated here will further enable large-scale studies on AM process–microstructure relationships that were not previously possible. Furthermore, the usability improvements and ability to run coupled AM process–microstructure simulations using the Finch-ExaCA workflow will facilitate broader use of this open-source software by the computational materials community.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning materials properties with accurate predictions, uncertainty estimates, domain guidance, and persistent online accessibility

One compelling vision of the future of materials discovery and design involves the use of machine learning (ML) models to predict materials properties and then rapidly find materials tailored for specific applications. However, realizing this vision requires both providing detailed uncertainty quantification (model prediction errors and domain of applicability) and making models readily usable. At present, it is common practice in the community to assess ML model performance only in terms of prediction accuracy (e.g. mean absolute error), while neglecting detailed uncertainty quantification and robust model accessibility and usability. Here, we demonstrate a practical method for realizing both uncertainty and accessibility features with a large set of models. We develop random forest ML models for 33 materials properties spanning an array of data sources (computational and experimental) and property types (electrical, mechanical, thermodynamic, etc). All models have calibrated ensemble error bars to quantify prediction uncertainty and domain of applicability guidance enabled by kernel-density-estimate-based feature distance measures. All data and models are publicly hosted on the Garden-AI infrastructure, which provides an easy-to-use, persistent interface for model dissemination that permits models to be invoked with only a few lines of Python code. We demonstrate the power of this approach by using our models to conduct a fully ML-based materials discovery exercise to search for new stable, highly active perovskite oxide catalyst materials.

domain of applicability↗

DOE OSTI2025

A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature and thermoelectric power supply under climate change

Water temperature is a key abiotic factor influencing aquatic ecosystem health and the services provided to both nature and humans. Global water temperature models offer possibilities to improve our understanding of water temperature regimes, which is increasingly important against the backdrop of climate change. Yet, existing studies have predominantly relied on a single model, which can lead to an incomplete representation of uncertainty and potential biases, in addition to limited insight into the range of possible future conditions, which ultimately reduces the robustness of climate impact assessments. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of surface freshwater temperature changes from various river and lake models for both past conditions and under future scenarios of climate change. Global models consistently simulate that surface water temperatures are currently 0.5 °C–0.8 °C higher than at the turn of the century (i.e. 1981–2000), and that warming will extend and intensify with future global change throughout the 21st century. While the strength of warming is highly sensitive to the different water temperature models, emissions scenarios and global climate models, our multi-model ensemble shows a global average annual water temperature rise of between +1.3 °C and +4.1 °C by the end of the century. To illustrate a potential societal impact of our results, we evaluate how future changes in discharge and water temperature may affect existing thermoelectric power plants, estimating average annual reductions of 1.5%–6% in global usable capacity by the end of the century. However, with river water temperatures projected to exhibit more pronounced seasonal patterns in the future—especially under the more extreme climate change scenarios and during summer months in the Northern Hemisphere—intra-annual reductions in usable capacity can be much more severe. Given the challenges associated with (large-scale) adaptation to control water temperature regimes, strong climate change mitigation is crucial for minimising water temperature rises and its associated negative impacts on humankind and ecosystems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗