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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental Characterization of Hydrogen Diffusion in Shale Rocks for Geologic Storage Applications

As global energy systems undergo a transition to cleaner alternatives, geologic hydrogen storage has emerged as a promising solution for large-scale energy storage. A critical factor in determining the feasibility of this approach is the effectiveness of caprock formations, such as shale, in preventing hydrogen migration. This study investigates the diffusion behavior of hydrogen through shale to assess its suitability as a caprock for geologic hydrogen storage. Using a novel double-seal core holder design and a through-diffusion apparatus, hydrogen diffusion was measured through shale rock from the Eagle Ford and Wolfcamp Formations under dry conditions. These measurements were complemented by microstructural and mineralogical analyses using low-pressure nitrogen adsorption and X-ray diffraction. The effective diffusion coefficient of hydrogen in these shale caprocks ranged from 2.51 × 10 –8 to 9.85 × 10 –8 m 2 /s. Notably, we observed that the diffusion behavior was more related to the pore network structure and could not be attributed to differences in the total pore volume between shale types alone. Here, to further understand the role of pore network complexity, a fractal pore model was developed to correlate tortuosity with the fractal dimension of the pore structure (a measure of pore network complexity). The proposed model closely matched tortuosity values obtained from diffusion experiments, outperforming existing theoretical tortuosity–porosity correlations. These findings provide key quantitative parameters needed to assess the feasibility of geologic hydrogen storage as well as insights that can be applied to hydrogen storage in a range of geologic formations.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Universal Model of Cation Effects in Electrocatalysis

Electrolyte cations are conventionally viewed as inert spectators in electrocatalysis. However, a wealth of observations show that catalytic rates are often highly sensitive to cation identity. Despite their prevalence, these cation effects have resisted a unified mechanistic explanation, with different physical phenomena implicated across reaction chemistries, catalyst compositions, and choice of solvent. In this perspective, we describe a general framework for understanding cation effects in electrocatalysis based on electrostatics. We argue that cations influence reaction rates by modifying the strength of the electric field present at the catalyst surface, which alters the energetics of adsorbed intermediates and transition states according to their dipole moments and polarizabilities. The magnitude of this field depends on how cations arrange at the electrode surface, controlled by their size, shape, solvation, and packing efficiency. Cations that can arrange more densely result in a steeper potential drop at the electrode surface and consequently a stronger electric field. Our model further identifies two criteria for observing cation effects: (1) the operating potential must be negative of the electrode’s potential of zero total charge, ensuring that cations accumulate at the interface, and (2) the energetics of the kinetically relevant elementary step must be field sensitive. This framework reconciles previously inconsistent trends, including why cation effects appear only for some catalysts, why reaction selectivity is sensitive to cation identity, and why activity can increase with cation size on certain metals but decrease on others. Supported by kinetic measurements, spectroscopy, and atomistic simulations, the model provides both conceptual value for building intuition about catalysis at charged interfaces and predictive value for anticipating trends for new reactions, catalysts, and electrolytes. We conclude by highlighting the importance of electric fields across electrochemical, thermochemical, and biological catalysis and propose that considering the electrostatic environment around active sites offers new opportunities for improving activity and selectivity.

cation effects↗
DOE OSTI2026

Third moments of nucleon unpolarized, polarized, and transversity parton distribution functions from physical-point lattice QCD

Using forward matrix elements of local leading-twist operators, we present a determination of the isovector third Mellin moments ⟨𝑥 2 ⟩ of nucleon unpolarized, polarized, and transversity parton distribution functions. Two lattice QCD ensembles at the physical pion mass are used, which were generated using a tree-level Symanzik-improved gauge action and 2+1 flavor tree-level improved Wilson Clover fermions coupling via 2-level HEX-smearing. Leveraging a wide set of operators, two extraction methods for the matrix elements, and the automatic inclusion of model uncertainties via bootstrapped model averages, we extract values of the third Mellin moments. Furthermore, this is the first direct calculation of these observables performed at the physical pion mass.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Acoustic vs. AI-Based Satellite Leak Detection in Aging US Water Infrastructure: A Cost and Energy Savings Analysis

The aging water distribution system in the United States, constructed mainly during the 1970s with some pipes dating back 125 years, is experiencing significant deterioration leading to substantial water losses. Along with the potential for water loss savings, improvements in the distribution system by using leak detection technologies can create net energy and cost savings. In this work, a new framework has been presented to calculate the economic level of leakage within water supply and distribution systems for two primary leak detection technologies (acoustic vs. satellite). In this work, a new framework is presented to calculate the economic level of leakage (ELL) within water supply and distribution systems to support smart infrastructure in smart cities. A case study focused using water audit data from Atlanta, Georgia, compared the costs of two leak mitigation technologies: conventional acoustic leak detection and artificial intelligence–assisted satellite leak detection technology, which employs machine learning algorithms to identify potential leak signatures from satellite imagery. The ELL results revealed that conducting one survey would be optimum for an acoustic survey, whereas the method suggested that it would be expensive to utilize satellite-based leak detection technology. However, results for cumulative financial analysis over a 3-year period for both technologies revealed both to be economically favorable with conventional acoustic leak detection technology generating higher net economic benefits of USD 2.4 million, surpassing satellite detection by 50%. A broader national analysis was conducted to explore the potential benefits of US water infrastructure mirroring the exemplary conditions of Germany and The Netherlands. Achieving similar infrastructure leakage index (ILI) values could result in annual cost savings of $\$4$–$\$4.8$ billion and primary energy savings of 1.6–1.9 TWh. These results demonstrate the value of combining economic modeling with advanced leak detection technologies to support sustainable, cost-efficient water infrastructure strategies in urban environments, contributing to more sustainable smart living outcomes.

acoustic leak detection↗
DOE OSTI2026

Influence of Shear Strength Assumptions on BISON Debonding Simulations

Accurately predicting the thermomechanical response of buffer–IPyC debonding in TRISO fuel particles requires reliable mechanical property inputs for each coating layer, particularly the normal and shear strengths that influence interlayer delamination and stress concentrations. Micro tensile testing of AGR-2 fuel particles provided experimentally measured normal strengths for the buffer, IPyC, and buffer–IPyC interface; however, shear strength was not measured. As a result, BISON simulations of interface debonding must rely on assumed shear strength values, typically estimated as 20–40% of the measured ultimate tensile strength. This study evaluates how these assumed shear strength values influence cohesive zone model (CZM) predictions of buffer–IPyC separation in AGR 2 TRISO particles. Using micro tensile data from three AGR 2 compacts (2 1 3, 5 1 3, and 6 3 3), BISON simulations were performed with multiple shear strength assumptions to quantify their effect on radial and tangential stress evolution, debonding, and gap propagation. The results show that shear strength is a high sensitivity parameter: increasing the assumed shear strength significantly alters the stress distribution at the buffer–IPyC junction, shifts the predicted debonding location, and changes the extent of partial gap formation. While normal strength controls the initiation of interface separation, shear strength strongly influences the mode mixity of the failure process and the resulting stress concentrations transmitted to the IPyC and SiC layers. These findings highlight a critical gap in current TRISO mechanical characterization. Without experimentally measured shear strength, BISON simulations must rely on approximations that introduce uncertainty into predictions of coating layer integrity and fission product barrier performance. Future fuel qualification campaigns should therefore consider measurement of shear strength at the interlayer interfaces to reduce model uncertainty and improve the fidelity of TRISO fuel performance simulations.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A flexible class of priors for orthonormal matrices with basis function-specific structure

Statistical modeling of high-dimensional matrix-valued data motivates the use of a low-rank representation that simultaneously summarizes key characteristics of the data and enables dimension reduction. Low-rank representations commonly factor the original data into the product of orthonormal basis functions and weights, where each basis function represents an independent feature of the data. However, the basis functions in these factorizations are typically computed using algorithmic methods that cannot quantify uncertainty or account for basis function correlation structure a priori. While there exist Bayesian methods that allow for a common correlation structure across basis functions, empirical examples motivate the need for basis function-specific dependence structure. We propose a prior distribution for orthonormal matrices that can explicitly model basis function-specific structure. The prior is used within a general probabilistic model for singular value decomposition to conduct posterior inference on the basis functions while accounting for measurement error and fixed effects. We discuss how the prior specification can be used for various scenarios and demonstrate favorable model properties through synthetic data examples. Finally, we apply our method to two-meter air temperature data from the Pacific Northwest, enhancing our understanding of the Earth system’s internal variability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Catalytic resonance theory for parametric uncertainty of programmable catalysis

Microkinetic models are useful tools for screening catalytic materials; however, errors in their input parameters can lead to significant uncertainty in model predictions of catalyst performance. Here, in this work, we investigate the impact of linear scaling and Brønsted-Evans-Polanyi relation parametric uncertainty on microkinetic predictions of programmable-catalyst performance. Two case studies are considered: a generic A-to-B prototype reaction and the oxygen evolution reaction (OER). The results show that error-unaware models can accurately predict trends and, for the prototype reaction, values of optimal waveform parameters. The specific model parameters driving output uncertainty are identified via variance-based global sensitivity analysis. However, predictions of dynamic rate enhancement can decrease when uncertainty is propagated into the models. In both cases, we identify operating conditions where the programmable catalyst achieves a rate enhancement of at least one order of magnitude despite parametric uncertainty in the model, supporting programmable catalysis as a viable strategy for exceeding the Sabatier limit.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of a subglacial drainage model

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural network-based classification and regression of magnetohydrodynamic modes in tokamaks

We present a machine learning-based magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) classifier and regressor that utilizes real or complex-valued 3D magnetic sensor array data to determine neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) onset times in tokamaks with millisecond accuracy. The input dataset consists of poloidal profiles of complex Fourier amplitudes with an n = 1 toroidal mode number from 144 human-labeled ITER Baseline Scenario discharges in the DIII-D tokamak, spanning both tearing-dominated and sawtooth-dominated regimes. Since m, n = 2,1 NTMs frequently emerge alongside sawteeth at the same frequency in this scenario, the focus is on isolating the m = 1 and m = 2 components of the n = 1 MHD mode near the tearing onset. To improve model regularization and prediction stability, singular value decomposition was applied to balance the sawtooth and tearing datasets. The enriched datasets facilitated training neural networks that learn the key distinguishing features of sawtooth and tearing modes in the poloidal profiles of their magnetic amplitude and phase. When the modes occur independently, the networks achieve perfect classification due to the modes’ distinct characteristics and low measurement noise. In the more experimentally relevant case where both modes coexist, the networks maintain exceptional performance across key metrics. Tests on synthetic data with known ground truth demonstrate the superior accuracy of the neural network trained on complex-valued input compared to models using real amplitude, phase, or pseudo-complex data, achieving both a mean time delay and standard deviation below 1 ms. Notably, standard linear regression methods fitting the dominant singular modes to the data closely match the neural network’s performance. Applying these methods across a broad range of H-mode scenarios will enable future studies to systematically identify dominant NTM triggers as scenario-specific variables, paving the way for more effective tearing mode avoidance strategies in future fusion reactor designs.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2026

Database and deep-learning scalability of anharmonic phonon properties by automated brute-force first-principles calculations

Understanding the anharmonic phonon properties of crystal compounds—such as phonon lifetimes and thermal conductivities—is essential for investigating and optimizing their thermal transport behaviors. These properties also impact optical, electronic, and magnetic characteristics through interactions between phonons and other quasiparticles and fields. In this study, we develop an automated first-principles workflow to calculate anharmonic phonon properties and build a comprehensive database encompassing more than 6500 inorganic compounds. Utilizing this dataset, we train a graph neural network model to predict thermal conductivity values and spectra from structural parameters, demonstrating a scaling law in which prediction accuracy improves with increasing training data size. High-throughput screening with the model enables the identification of materials exhibiting extreme thermal conductivities—both high and low. The resulting database offers valuable insights into the anharmonic behavior of phonons, thereby accelerating the design and development of advanced functional materials.

Ohnishi, Masato [University of Tokyo (Japan); Inst↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-resolution leaf area index maps generated from unoccupied aerial system, Teller Mile 27, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Leaf area index (LAI), a measure of the amount of one-side leaf area per ground unit, is an important indicator of plant carbon, energy, and water cycle. In the heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, it has been challenging to accurately measure LAI across species and space needed for Earth system model validation. Here, we use multispectral unoccupied aerial systems (UASs) to scale up and map leaf area index (LAI) , in a low-Arctic tundra landscape on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. We linked previous published LAI measurements with high-resolution, UAS-collected multispectral data collected over the region of Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic)’s Teller Mile Maker 27 site in 2022 to develop random forest (RF) machine learning models to predict and map LAI. 100 RF models were developed to account for uncertainties in ground LAI plot measurements and process scaling. This dataset includes a raster (*.tif) map of the mean LAI value of the 100 RF models, a raster (*.tif) map of the standard deviation of the RF-modeled LAI data, and a user guide (*.pdf).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kinetics of photogenerated carbon dangling bonds in organic photovoltaic thin Films: An EPR study

Here, we report an investigation of the early kinetics of photogenerated carbon dangling bond (CDB) formation and annealing in organic photovoltaic bulk heterojunction (BHJ) thin film blends under oxygen- and moisture-free conditions, using X-band electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy. The study focuses on donor:acceptor BHJ blends of PCE12:PCBM and PCE12:ITIC films, where PCE12 is PBDB-T. The time evolution of CDBs in such drop-cast BHJ films irradiated at 300 nm is monitored. The early kinetics of CDB formation, critical for understanding OPV degradation mechanisms, is studied. Theoretical analysis of the defect growth mechanism suggests a monomolecular defect creation model where the defect count follows a power-law t β with irradiation time t, where β ∼ 0.55–0.58, in excellent agreement with the theoretically expected value of β = 1/2. This model is compatible with CDB formation by the holes in donor sites adjacent to acceptors, likely assisted by energy released from quenching of nearby excitons by the holes, elucidating the physical mechanism underlying CDB formation. This is significant for designing improved materials, which mitigate defect creation, and consequently advancing the development of stable OPV systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cloud response to co-condensation of water and organic vapors over the boreal forest

Abstract. Accounting for the condensation of organic vapors along with water vapor (co-condensation) has been shown in adiabatic cloud parcel model (CPM) simulations to enhance the number of aerosol particles that activate to form cloud droplets. The boreal forest is an important source of biogenic organic vapors, but the role of these vapors in co-condensation has not been systematically investigated. In this work, the environmental conditions under which strong co-condensation-driven cloud droplet number enhancements would be expected over the boreal biome are identified. Recent measurement technology, specifically the Filter Inlet for Gases and AEROsols (FIGAERO) coupled to an iodide-adduct chemical ionization mass spectrometer (I-CIMS), is utilized to construct volatility distributions of the boreal atmospheric organics. Then, a suite of CPM simulations initialized with a comprehensive set of concurrent aerosol observations collected in the boreal forest of Finland during spring 2014 is performed. The degree to which co-condensation impacts droplet formation in the model is shown to be dependent on the initialization of temperature, relative humidity, updraft velocity, aerosol size distribution, organic vapor concentration, and the volatility distribution. The predicted median enhancements in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) due to accounting for the co-condensation of water and organics fall on average between 16 % and 22 %. This corresponds to activating particles 10–16 nm smaller in dry diameter that would otherwise remain as interstitial aerosol. The highest CDNC enhancements (ΔCDNC) are predicted in the presence of a nascent ultrafine aerosol mode with a geometric mean diameter of ∼ 40 nm and no clear Hoppel minimum, indicative of pristine environments with a source of ultrafine particles (e.g., via new particle formation processes). Such aerosol size distributions are observed 30 %–40 % of the time in the studied boreal forest environment in spring and fall when new particle formation frequency is the highest. To evaluate the frequencies with which such distributions are experienced by an Earth system model over the whole boreal biome, 5 years of UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) simulations are further used. The frequencies are substantially lower than those observed at the boreal forest measurement site (< 6 % of the time), and the positive values, peaking in spring, are modeled only over Fennoscandia and the western parts of Siberia. Overall, the similarities in the size distributions between observed and modeled (UKESM1) are limited, which would limit the ability of this model, or any model with a similar aerosol representation, to project the climate relevance of co-condensation over the boreal forest. For the critical aerosol size distribution regime, ΔCDNC is shown to be sensitive to the concentrations of semi-volatile and some intermediate-volatility organic compounds (SVOCs and IVOCs), especially when the overall particle surface area is low. The magnitudes of ΔCDNC remain less affected by the more volatile vapors such as formic acid and extremely low- and low-volatility organic compounds (ELVOCs and LVOCs). The reasons for this are that most volatile organic vapors condense inefficiently due to their high volatility below the cloud base, and the concentrations of LVOCs and ELVOCs are too low to gain significant concentrations of soluble mass to reduce the critical supersaturations enough for droplet activation to occur. A reduction in the critical supersaturation caused by organic condensation emerges as the main driver of the modeled ΔCDNC. The results highlight the potential significance of co-condensation in pristine boreal environments close to sources of fresh ultrafine particles. For accurate predictions of co-condensation effects on CDNC, also in larger-scale models, an accurate representation of the aerosol size distribution is critical. Further studies targeted at finding observational evidence and constraints for co-condensation in the field are encouraged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary modeling of triply periodic minimal surface (TPMS) structures using RELAP5-3D

With the United States Department of Energy (DOE)’s goal of quadrupling the nation’s nuclear energy supply by 2050, and with the Advanced Fuels Campaign pushing for new types of advanced reactor fuels and geometries, the need has arisen for new nuclear fuel designs. One such design is to swap out current nuclear fuel geometries in exchange for another type of geometry, called a Triply Periodic Minimal Surface (TPMS). TPMSs are self-supporting, infinitely repeating lattices—attributes that lend themselves well to additive manufacturing. These surfaces also possess enhanced heat transfer properties thanks to their internal area changes and large surface-area-to-volume ratios. Their drawback, however, is an increased pressure drop. Given the small amount of correlations and data (Reynolds numbers in the 2,000–8,000 range), and the minimal amount of experience so far obtained by modeling TPMS structures using 1D systems codes such as the Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5-3D), further research into this topic was needed. Using data from the University of Wisconsin - Madison (UW), curve fits were created for both a Heat Transfer Coefficient (HTC) correlation and a Darcy friction factor empirical coefficient correlation. The curves’ coefficients and multipliers were then output and utilized in RELAP5-3D models of two upcoming experiments—Flow Loop for INFLUX Pressure drop (FLIP) and Microreactor Agile Non-nuclear Experimental Test (MAGNET)—aimed at increasing the available data for Reynolds numbers to the 16,000–36,000 range for TPMS structures. The models were run under the conditions utilized by a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis performed by another group at Idaho National Laboratory. Only CFD pressure drop values were obtained from the FLIP test, and those values showed that the RELAP5-3D models had a lower rate of pressure increase in comparison to the CFD values. In addition, there seemed to be a vertical shift upward in the pressure drop for both models whenever the TPMS porosity decreased, and the RELAP5-3D models showed a higher vertical shift in comparison to the CFD values. The MAGNET results did not correspond to any CFD or experimental results against which they could be compared, so they were instead compared against the proposed CFD input conditions. These values were then compared with each other to make sure the model seemed to be performing as expected, paving the way for future tests that can be run for the purpose of further analyses and comparisons. The pressure drop increased with temperature and mass flow rate independently. The temperature change would decrease with increasing mass flow rate and temperature, which was just as we expected based on the fact that the lower viscosity and decreased density would result in higher friction and churning losses. The last metric that was assessed was the enthalpy flow change, which increased with increasing mass flow rate and decreasing temperature.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning mathematical models for incidence estimation during pandemics

Accurate estimates of the incidence of infectious diseases are key for the control of epidemics. However, healthcare systems are often unable to test the population exhaustively, especially when asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases are widespread; this leads to significant and systematic under-reporting of the real incidence. Here, we propose a machine learning approach to estimate the incidence of a pandemic in real-time, using reported cases and the overall test rate. In particular, we use Bayesian symbolic regression to automatically learn the closed-form mathematical models that most parsimoniously describe incidence. We develop and validate our models using COVID-19 incidence values for nine different countries, confirming their ability to accurately predict daily incidence. Remarkably, despite the differences in epidemic trajectories and dynamics across countries, we find that a single model for all countries offers a more parsimonious description and is more predictive of actual incidence compared to separate models for each country. Our results show the potential to accurately model incidence in real-time using closed-form mathematical models, providing a valuable tool for public health decision-makers.

Fajardo-Fontiveros, Oscar (ORCID:0000000207058972)↗
DOE OSTI2024

RGM: Random Geological Model Generation Package

This Fortran code is to accompany a manuscript to be submitted to Computers & Geosciences, a high-impact, peer-reviewed journal in computer methods for geosciences research. This Fortran code focuses on generation of synthetic geological models using a multi-randomization strategy. Generating high-fidelity synthetic geological models, including realistic seismic reflector migration images, faults, salt bodies, and relative geological time images, is the key for many supervised machine learning methods that aim to delineate faults and other geological properties of interest from seismic migration images. Our package contains two major functionalities: generating 2D synthetic random geological models and generating 3D synthetic random geological models. In each step of the generation process, we set random values for key properties of a geological model to improve the fidelity of the resulting geological model. The package also includes example codes on how to use the random geological model generation subroutines. We name this package RGM – Random Geological Model generation package.

Gao, Kai↗
DOE OSTI2024

Joint Inversion of Regional Waveform, First-Motion Polarity, and Synthetic Aperture Radar Surface Displacement for the Fourth and Sixth North Korean Declared Nuclear Explosions

Here, this study analyzed the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) fourth (DPRK4, 6 January 2016 M w 4.49) and sixth (DPRK6, 7 September 2017 M w 5.2) declared nuclear tests, employing a joint seismic and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) inversion to improve understanding of these events and enhance moment tensor (MT) inversion capabilities. The recent efforts have focused on employing seismic waveform and InSAR geodetic deformation data separately to analyze these and the previous nuclear tests (e.g., Chiang et al., 2018; Myers et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018). Building upon our previous work (Chi-Durán et al., 2021), we performed a joint regional waveform, first-motion (FM) polarity, and surface displacement inversion, which demonstrated improved source-type discrimination, a revised MT solution with reduced scalar moment uncertainty, and an independently constrained location. In this article, we build on the previous results for DPRK6 by including an analysis using a four-layered velocity model with free-surface topography to compute the near-source static deformation Green’s functions. The model consists of a 50 m basalt layer (⁠V P = 2.07 km/s, V S = 1.2 km/s⁠), a 250 m stratified volcanic deposit layer (⁠V P = 1.73 km/s, V S = 1.0 km/s⁠), a 700 m weathered granodiorite layer (⁠V P = 2.5 km/s, V S = 1.3 km/s⁠⁠), and a granodiorite half-space (⁠V P = 5.35 km/s, V S = 3.09 km/s⁠⁠). The half-space shares the velocity of the regional MDJ2 velocity model (Ford et al., 2010), which has proven effective for waveform inversion in the region. This model considers the range of reported values for various lithologies and weathering effects. Our findings show that using the layered velocity model enhances the recovery of source location and depth for both the explosions by improving fits and reducing uncertainties. The joint inversion also improves source-type discrimination and better constrains the scalar seismic moment necessary for downstream yield estimation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The discriminant power of bubble wall velocities: gravitational waves and electroweak baryogenesis

A precise determination of the bubble wall velocity v$_{w}$ is crucial for making accurate predictions of the baryon asymmetry and gravitational wave (GW) signals in models of electroweak baryogenesis (EWBG). Working in the local thermal equilibrium approximation, we exploit entropy conservation to present efficient algorithms for computing v$_{w}$, significantly streamlining the calculation. We then explore the parameter dependencies of v$_{w}$, focusing on two sample models capable of enabling a strong first-order electroweak phase transition: a ℤ$_{2}$-symmetric singlet extension of the SM, and a model for baryogenesis with CP violation in the dark sector. We study correlations among v$_{w}$ and the two common measures of phase transition strength, α$_{n}$ and v$_{n}$/T$_{n}$. Interestingly, we find a relatively model-insensitive relationship between v$_{n}$/T$_{n}$ and α$_{n}$. We also observe an upper bound on α$_{n}$ for the deflagration/hybrid wall profiles naturally compatible with EWBG, the exact value for which varies between models, significantly impacting the strength of the GW signals. In summary, our work provides a framework for exploring the feasibility of EWBG models in light of future GW signals.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗