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At least 163 records · Page 9

Reward and uncertainty in exploration programs

A set of variables which are crucial to the economic outcome of petroleum exploration are discussed. These are treated as random variables; the values they assume indicate the number of successes that occur in a drilling program and determine, for a particular discovery, the unit production cost and net economic return if that reservoir is developed. In specifying the joint probability law for those variables, extreme and probably unrealistic assumptions are made. In particular, the different random variables are assumed to be independently distributed. Using postulated probability functions and specified parameters, values are generated for selected random variables, such as reservoir size. From this set of values the economic magnitudes of interest, net return and unit production cost are computed. This constitutes a single trial, and the procedure is repeated many times. The resulting histograms approximate the probability density functions of the variables which describe the economic outcomes of an exploratory drilling program.

Kaufman, G. M.↗

An investigation of dynamic-analysis methods for variable-geometry structures

Selected space structure configurations were reviewed in order to define dynamic analysis problems associated with variable geometry. The dynamics of a beam being constructed from a flexible base and the relocation of the completed beam by rotating the remote manipulator system about the shoulder joint were selected. Equations of motion were formulated in physical coordinates for both of these problems, and FORTRAN programs were developed to generate solutions by numerically integrating the equations. These solutions served as a standard of comparison to gauge the accuracy of approximate solution techniques that were developed and studied. Good control was achieved in both problems. Unstable control system coupling with the system flexibility did not occur. An approximate method was developed for each problem to enable the analyst to investigate variable geometry effects during a short time span using standard fixed geometry programs such as NASTRAN. The average angle and average length techniques are discussed.

Austin, F.↗

Efficiency optimization of a thermionic converter array

Intensive study of the outer planets of the solar system requires the use of nuclear power for electric propulsion of spacecraft. Among the power conversion devices being considered for this application are thermionic converters. This paper presents the results of computer modeling of thermionic converters to identify the major design variables and select an optimum size for each of the thermionic converters for the power conversion system under consideration. Among the variables investigated were electrical and thermal losses in electrodes, leads and heat chokes. Those elements which minimized the electrical losses tended to increase thermal losses and system weight. Overall mechanical design and relative positioning of components also had impacts on converter efficiency and the power subsystem weight. Numerical calculations were made using the computer heat transfer code SINDA coupled with electrical loss parameters. The results of the computations are presented in this paper.

Kuo, Y. S.↗

High Performance EVA Glove Collaboration: Glove Injury Data Mining Effort

Human hands play a significant role during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) missions and Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL) training events, as they are needed for translating and performing tasks in the weightless environment. Because of this high frequency usage, hand and arm related injuries are known to occur during EVA and EVA training in the NBL. The primary objectives of this investigation were to: 1) document all known EVA glove related injuries and circumstances of these incidents, 2) determine likely risk factors, and 3) recommend interventions where possible that could be implemented in the current and future glove designs. METHODS: The investigation focused on the discomforts and injuries of U.S. crewmembers who had worn the pressurized Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit and experienced 4000 Series or Phase VI glove related incidents during 1981 to 2010 for either EVA ground training or in-orbit flight. We conducted an observational retrospective case-control investigation using 1) a literature review of known injuries, 2) data mining of crew injury, glove sizing, and hand anthropometry databases, 3) descriptive statistical analyses, and finally 4) statistical risk correlation and predictor analyses to better understand injury prevalence and potential causation. Specific predictor statistical analyses included use of principal component analyses (PCA), multiple logistic regression, and survival analyses (Cox proportional hazards regression). Results of these analyses were computed risk variables in the forms of odds ratios (likelihood of an injury occurring given the magnitude of a risk variable) and hazard ratios (likelihood of time to injury occurrence). Due to the exploratory nature of this investigation, we selected predictor variables significant at p≤0.15. RESULTS: Through 2010, there have been a total of 330 NASA crewmembers, from which 96 crewmembers performed 322 EVAs during 1981-2010, resulting in 50 crewmembers being injured inflight and 44 injured during 11,704 ground EVA training events. Of the 196 glove related injury incidents, 106 related to EVA and 90 to EVA training. Over these 196 incidents, 277 total injuries (126 flight; 151 training) were reported and were then grouped into 23 types of injuries. Of EVA flight injuries, 65% were commonly reported to the hand (in general), metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joint, and finger (not including thumb) with fatigue, abrasion, and paresthesia being the most common injury types (44% of total flight injuries). Training injuries totaled to more than 70% being distributed to the fingernail, MCP joint, and finger crotch with 88% of the specific injuries listed as pain, erythema, and onycholysis. Of these training injuries, when reporting pain or erythema, the most common location was the index finger, but when reporting onycholysis, it was the middle finger. Predictor variables specific to increased risk of onycholysis included: female sex (OR=2.622), older age (OR=1.065), increased duration in hours of the flight or training event (OR=1.570), middle finger length differences in inches between the finger and the EVA glove (OR=7.709), and use of the Phase VI glove (OR=8.535). Differentiation between training and flight and injury reporting during 2002-2004 were significant control variables. For likelihood of time to first onycholysis injury, there was a 24% reduction in rate of reporting for each year increase in age. Also, more experienced crewmembers, based on number of EVA flight or training events completed, were less likely to report an onycholysis injury (3% less for every event). Longer duration events also found reporting rates to occur 2.37 times faster for every hour of length. Crewmembers with larger hand size reported onycholysis 23% faster than those with smaller hand size. Finally, for every 1/10th of an inch increase in difference between the middle finger length and the glove, the rate of reporting increased by 60%. DISCUSSION: One key finding was that the Series 4000 glove had a lower injury risk than the Phase VI, which provides a platform for further evaluation. General interventions that reduce hand overexertion and repetitive use exposure through tool development, procedural changes and shorter exposures may be one mitigation path, but due to the way the training event times were reported, we cannot provide a guideline for a specific event duration change. When the finger length was different from the glove length, the risk of injury increased indicating that the use of larger finger take-ups could be contributing to injury and therefore may not be recommended. Prior to this investigation, there was one previous investigation indicating hand anthropometry may be related to onycholysis. We found different hand anthropometry variables indicated by this investigation as compared to the prior, specifically differences in middle finger length compared to glove finger length, which point more towards a sizing issue than a specific anthropometry issue. Additionally, although this investigation has identified sizing as an issue, the force and environmental-related variables of the EVA glove that could also cause injury were not accounted for.

Reid, C. R.↗

Quantifying physical parameterization uncertainties associated with land-atmosphere interactions in the WRF model over Amazon

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to diagnose regional land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength in the absence of sufficient observations but subjected to uncertainties associated with model physical parameterizations. In this study, we propose a framework to quantify and reduce model physical parameterization uncertainties associated with surface fluxes and L-A coupling. An ensemble of WRF simulations with different physical schemes is used to simulate surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling strength over the Amazon region. The physical parameterizations investigated include cloud microphysics (MP), land surface processes (LSM), planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface layer (SL), and cumulus (CU). We perform 120 ensemble simulations using the WRF model and different combinations of six MPs, three LSMs, six PBLs and SLs and three CUs. The measurements from the GoAMAZON field campaign and satellite data are used to evaluate model performance. A Multi-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is applied to quantify the relative importance of different physics processes on L-A coupling. The Tukey’s test is used to sort schemes that have no significant differences into one group. The suite of physics that result in the best simulations of the corresponding variables are selected based on the Taylor skill score. Results show that the relative importance of processes and their interaction vary with the variables of interest. For example, CU was the most important process in modulating soil moisture, 2 m-humidity, latent heat, and net radiation. LSM showed dominant effects on 2 m-temperature and also has the largest impact on sensible heat and the lifting condensation level. The best physical parameterization ensembles show much narrower ranges of the variables of interest than the priori ensemble. Results of this study show the roles of different physical processes in modulating L-A interactions, quantify model uncertainties from physical processes, and provide insights for improving the model physics parameterizations.

Wang, Chen↗

Anthropometry

Data on body-size measurement are presented to aid in spacecraft design. Tabulated dimensional anthropometric data on 59 variables for 12 selected populations are given. The variables chosen were those judged most relevant to the manned space program. A glossary of anatomical and anthropometric terms is included. Selected body dimensions of males and females from the potential astronaut population projected to the 1980-1990 time frame are given. Illustrations of drawing-board manikins based on those anticipated body sizes are included.

Mcconville, J. T.↗

Determinants of project success

The interactions of numerous project characteristics, with particular reference to project performance, were studied. Determinants of success are identified along with the accompanying implications for client organization, parent organization, project organization, and future research. Variables are selected which are found to have the greatest impact on project outcome, and the methodology and analytic techniques to be employed in identification of those variables are discussed.

Murphy, D. C.↗

Characteristics of IR variable stars as observed from orbit

A selection of infrared variable stars was studied at wavelength 2.7 microns during 1971-1975 with data from U.S. Air Force satellites. Stars observed in this program are classified as long-period variable stars, semiregular variables, and irregular variables and are among the strongest stellar sources at this wavelength. In addition, a few new, as yet unclassified variable stars were identified during the course of the investigation. Time scales of reproducible variations range from a few weeks to a few years, and amplitudes of variation are as large as a factor of three for stars with periods of order one year. The minimum infrared flux density of a long-period star repeats accurately from one cycle to the next, whereas the maximum flux density was found to be unstable. The correlation of 2.7 micron and radio emission line data from one, well-studied long-period variable is consistent with the hypothesis that the H2O and OH circumstellar masers are saturated, if pumped by the stellar infrared flux near 2.7 microns.

Maran, S. P.↗

Supramolecular Tuning Enables Selective Oxygen Reduction Catalyzed by Cobalt Porphyrins for Direct Electrosynthesis of Hydrogen Peroxide

Abstract We report a supramolecular strategy for promoting the selective reduction of O 2 for direct electrosynthesis of H 2 O 2 . We utilized cobalt tetraphenylporphyrin (Co‐TPP), an oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) catalyst with highly variable product selectivity, as a building block to assemble the permanently porous supramolecular cage Co‐PB‐1(6) bearing six Co‐TPP subunits connected through twenty‐four imine bonds. Reduction of these imine linkers to amines yields the more flexible cage Co‐rPB‐1(6). Both Co‐PB‐1(6) and Co‐rPB‐1(6) cages produce 90–100 % H 2 O 2 from electrochemical ORR catalysis in neutral pH water, whereas the Co‐TPP monomer gives a 50 % mixture of H 2 O 2 and H 2 O. Bimolecular pathways have been implicated in facilitating H 2 O formation, therefore, we attribute this high H 2 O 2 selectivity to site isolation of the discrete molecular units in each supramolecule. The ability to control reaction selectivity in supramolecular structures beyond traditional host–guest interactions offers new opportunities for designing such architectures for a broader range of catalytic applications.

Smith, Peter T.↗

Supramolecular Tuning Enables Selective Oxygen Reduction Catalyzed by Cobalt Porphyrins for Direct Electrosynthesis of Hydrogen Peroxide

Abstract We report a supramolecular strategy for promoting the selective reduction of O 2 for direct electrosynthesis of H 2 O 2 . We utilized cobalt tetraphenylporphyrin (Co‐TPP), an oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) catalyst with highly variable product selectivity, as a building block to assemble the permanently porous supramolecular cage Co‐PB‐1(6) bearing six Co‐TPP subunits connected through twenty‐four imine bonds. Reduction of these imine linkers to amines yields the more flexible cage Co‐rPB‐1(6). Both Co‐PB‐1(6) and Co‐rPB‐1(6) cages produce 90–100 % H 2 O 2 from electrochemical ORR catalysis in neutral pH water, whereas the Co‐TPP monomer gives a 50 % mixture of H 2 O 2 and H 2 O. Bimolecular pathways have been implicated in facilitating H 2 O formation, therefore, we attribute this high H 2 O 2 selectivity to site isolation of the discrete molecular units in each supramolecule. The ability to control reaction selectivity in supramolecular structures beyond traditional host–guest interactions offers new opportunities for designing such architectures for a broader range of catalytic applications.

Smith, Peter T.↗

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 17: The relationship between seven variables and the use of US government technical reports by US aerospace engineers and scientists

A study was undertaken to investigate the relationship between the use of U.S. government technical reports by U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists and seven selected sociometric variables. Data were collected by means of a self-administered mail survey which was distributed to a randomly drawn sample of American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) members. Two research questions concerning the use of conference meeting papers, journal articles, in-house technical reports, and U.S. government technical reports were investigated. Relevance, technical quality, and accessibility were found to be more important determinants of the overall extent to which U.S. government technical reports and three other information products were used by U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

High allelic diversity in Arabidopsis NLRs is associated with distinct genomic features

Plants rely on Nucleotide-binding, Leucine-rich repeat Receptors (NLRs) for pathogen recognition. Highly variable NLRs (hvNLRs) show remarkable intraspecies diversity, while their low-variability paralogs (non-hvNLRs) are conserved between ecotypes. At a population level, hvNLRs provide new pathogen-recognition specificities, but the association between allelic diversity and genomic and epigenomic features has not been established. Our investigation of NLRs in Arabidopsis Col-0 has revealed that hvNLRs show higher expression, less gene body cytosine methylation, and closer proximity to transposable elements than non-hvNLRs. hvNLRs show elevated synonymous and nonsynonymous nucleotide diversity and are in chromatin states associated with an increased probability of mutation. Diversifying selection maintains variability at a subset of codons of hvNLRs, while purifying selection maintains conservation at non-hvNLRs. How these features are established and maintained, and whether they contribute to the observed diversity of hvNLRs is key to understanding the evolution of plant innate immune receptors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Monte Carlo investigation of thrust imbalance of solid rocket motor pairs

The Monte Carlo method of statistical analysis is used to investigate the theoretical thrust imbalance of pairs of solid rocket motors (SRMs) firing in parallel. Sets of the significant variables are selected using a random sampling technique and the imbalance calculated for a large number of motor pairs using a simplified, but comprehensive, model of the internal ballistics. The treatment of burning surface geometry allows for the variations in the ovality and alignment of the motor case and mandrel as well as those arising from differences in the basic size dimensions and propellant properties. The analysis is used to predict the thrust-time characteristics of 130 randomly selected pairs of Titan IIIC SRMs. A statistical comparison of the results with test data for 20 pairs shows the theory underpredicts the standard deviation in maximum thrust imbalance by 20% with variability in burning times matched within 2%. The range in thrust imbalance of Space Shuttle type SRM pairs is also estimated using applicable tolerances and variabilities and a correction factor based on the Titan IIIC analysis.

Sforzini, R. H.↗

Multispectral determination of soil moisture-2

Soil moisture data obtained using scatterometers, modular multispectral scanners and passive microwave radiometers were revised and grouped into four field cover types for statistical anaysis. Guymon data are grouped as alfalfa, bare, milo with rows perpendicular to the field view, and milo viewed parallel to the field of view. Dalhart data are grouped as bare combo, stubble, disked stubble, and corn field. Summary graphs combine selected analyses to compare the effects of field cover. The analysis for each of the cover types is presented in tables and graphs. Other tables show elementary statistics, correlation matrices, and single variable regressions. Selected eigenvectors and factor analyses are included and the highest correlating sensor typs for each location are summarized.

Estes, J. E.↗

Adaptive Finite Element Methods for Continuum Damage Modeling

The paper presents an application of adaptive finite element methods to the modeling of low-cycle continuum damage and life prediction of high-temperature components. The major objective is to provide automated and accurate modeling of damaged zones through adaptive mesh refinement and adaptive time-stepping methods. The damage modeling methodology is implemented in an usual way by embedding damage evolution in the transient nonlinear solution of elasto-viscoplastic deformation problems. This nonlinear boundary-value problem is discretized by adaptive finite element methods. The automated h-adaptive mesh refinements are driven by error indicators, based on selected principal variables in the problem (stresses, non-elastic strains, damage, etc.). In the time domain, adaptive time-stepping is used, combined with a predictor-corrector time marching algorithm. The time selection is controlled by required time accuracy. In order to take into account strong temperature dependency of material parameters, the nonlinear structural solution a coupled with thermal analyses (one-way coupling). Several test examples illustrate the importance and benefits of adaptive mesh refinements in accurate prediction of damage levels and failure time.

Min, J. B.↗

Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

Roads, John↗

Multi-point Adjoint-Based Design of Tilt-Rotors in a Noninertial Reference Frame

Optimization of tilt-rotor systems requires the consideration of performance at multiple design points. In the current study, an adjoint-based optimization of a tilt-rotor blade is considered. The optimization seeks to simultaneously maximize the rotorcraft figure of merit in hover and the propulsive efficiency in airplane-mode for a tilt-rotor system. The design is subject to minimum thrust constraints imposed at each design point. The rotor flowfields at each design point are cast as steady-state problems in a noninertial reference frame. Geometric design variables used in the study to control blade shape include: thickness, camber, twist, and taper represented by as many as 123 separate design variables. Performance weighting of each operational mode is considered in the formulation of the composite objective function, and a build up of increasing geometric degrees of freedom is used to isolate the impact of selected design variables. In all cases considered, the resulting designs successfully increase both the hover figure of merit and the airplane-mode propulsive efficiency for a rotor designed with classical techniques.

Jones, William T.↗

Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parameters in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗