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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Mapping Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes albopictus Vector Mosquito Distribution in Brownsville, TX

Abstract Aedes mosquitoes are vectors of several emerging diseases and are spreading worldwide. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) mosquito trap captures in Brownsville, TX, using high-resolution land cover, socioeconomic, and meteorological data. We modeled mosquito trap counts using a Bayesian hierarchical mixed-effects model with spatially correlated residuals. The models indicated an inverse relationship between temperature and mosquito trap counts for both species, which may be due to the hot and arid climate of southern Texas. The temporal trend in mosquito populations indicated Ae. aegypti populations peaking in the late spring and Ae. albopictus reaching a maximum in winter. Our results indicated that seasonal weather variation, vegetation height, human population, and land cover determine which of the two Aedes species will predominate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Uncertainty Quantification of Multi-Phase Closures

In the ensemble-averaged dispersed phase formulation used for CFD of multiphase ows in nuclear reactor thermohydraulics, closures of interphase transfer of mass, momentum, and energy constitute, by far, the biggest source of error and uncertainty. Reliable estimators of this source of error and uncertainty are currently non-existent. Here, we report on how modern Validation and Uncertainty Quanti cation (VUQ) techniques can be leveraged to not only quantify such errors and uncertainties, but also to uncover (unintended) interactions between closures of di erent phenomena. As such this approach serves as a valuable aide in the research and development of multiphase closures. The joint modeling of lift, drag, wall lubrication, and turbulent dispersion|forces that lead to tranfer of momentum between the liquid and gas phases|is examined in the frame- work of validation of the adiabatic but turbulent experiments of Liu and Banko , 1993. An extensive calibration study is undertaken with a popular combination of closure relations and the popular k-ϵ turbulence model in a Bayesian framework. When a wide range of super cial liquid and gas velocities and void fractions is considered, it is found that this set of closures can be validated against the experimental data only by allowing large variations in the coe cients associated with the closures. We argue that such an extent of variation is a measure of uncertainty induced by the chosen set of closures. We also nd that while mean uid velocity and void fraction pro les are properly t, uctuating uid velocity may or may not be properly t. This aspect needs to be investigated further. The popular set of closures considered contains ad-hoc components and are undesirable from a predictive modeling point of view. Consequently, we next consider improvements that are being developed by the MIT group under CASL and which remove the ad-hoc elements. We use non-intrusive methodologies for sensitivity analysis and calibration (using Dakota) to study sensitivities of the CFD representation (STARCCM+) of uid velocity pro les and void fraction pro les in the context of Shaver and Podowski, 2015 correction to lift, and the Lubchenko et al., 2017 formulation of wall lubrication.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

New constraints on sodium production in globular clusters from the Na 23 ( He 3 , d ) Mg 24 reaction

The star-to-star anticorrelation of sodium and oxygen is a defining feature of globular clusters, but, to date, the astrophysical site responsible for this unique chemical signature remains unknown. Sodium enrichment within these clusters depends sensitively on reaction rate of the sodium destroying reactions 23 Na(p, γ) and 23 Na(p,α). In this paper, we report the results of a 23 Na( 3 He,d) 24 Mg transfer reaction carried out at Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory using a 21 MeV 3 He beam. Astrophysically relevant states in 24 Mg between 11 < E x < 12 MeV were studied using high-resolution magnetic spectroscopy, thereby allowing the extraction of excitation energies and spectroscopic factors. Bayesian methods are combined with the distorted wave Born approximation to assign statistically meaningful uncertainties to the extracted spectroscopic factors. For the first time, these uncertainties are propagated through to the estimation of proton partial widths. Our experimental data are used to calculate the reaction rate. The impact of the new rates are investigated using asymptotic giant branch star models. Furthermore, it is found that while the astrophysical conditions still dominate the total uncertainty, intramodel variations on sodium production from the 23 Na(p, γ) and 23 Na(p,α) reaction channels are a lingering source of uncertainty.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global stochastic optimization of stellarator coil configurations

In the construction of a stellarator, the manufacturing and assembling of the coil system is a dominant cost. These coils need to satisfy strict engineering tolerances, and if those are not met the project could be cancelled as in the case of the National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) project. Therefore, our goal is to find coil configurations that increase construction tolerances without compromising the performance of the magnetic field. In this paper, we develop a gradient-based stochastic optimization model which seeks robust stellarator coil configurations in high dimensions. In particular, we design a two-step method: first, we perform an approximate global search by a sample efficient trust-region Bayesian optimization; second, we refine the minima found in step one with a stochastic local optimizer. To this end, we introduce two stochastic local optimizers: BFGS applied to the sample average approximation; and Adam, equipped with a control variate for variance reduction. Numerical simulations performed on a W7-X-like coil configuration demonstrate that our global optimization approach finds a variety of promising local solutions at less than 0.1% of the cost of previous work, which considered solely local stochastic optimization.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

PROBING X-RAY ABSORPTION AND OPTICAL EXTINCTION IN THE INTERSTELLAR MEDIUM USING CHANDRA OBSERVATIONS OF SUPERNOVA REMNANTS

We present a comprehensive study of interstellar X-ray extinction using the extensive Chandra supernova remnant (SNR) archive and use our results to refine the empirical relation between the hydrogen column density and optical extinction. In our analysis, we make use of the large, uniform data sample to assess various systematic uncertainties in the measurement of the interstellar X-ray absorption. Specifically, we address systematic uncertainties that originate from (i) the emission models used to fit SNR spectra; (ii) the spatial variations within individual remnants; (iii) the physical conditions of the remnant such as composition, temperature, and non-equilibrium regions; and (iv) the model used for the absorption of X-rays in the interstellar medium. Using a Bayesian framework to quantify these systematic uncertainties, and combining the resulting hydrogen column density measurements with the measurements of optical extinction toward the same remnants, we find the empirical relation N {sub H} = (2.87 ± 0.12) × 10{sup 21} A {sub V} cm{sup 2}, which is significantly higher than the previous measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hierarchical Bayesian Thermonuclear Rate for the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Reaction

Big Bang nucleosynthesis provides the earliest probe of standard model physics, at a time when the universe was less than 1000 seconds old. It determines the abundances of the lightest nuclides, which give rise to the subsequent history of the visible matter in the universe. This work derives new 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear reaction rates based on all available experimental information. This reaction sensitively impacts the primordial abundances of 7 Be and 7 Li during big bang nucleosynthesis. We critically evaluate all available data and disregard experimental results that are questionable. For the nuclear model, we adopt an incoherent sum of single-level, two-channel, R -matrix approximation expressions, which are implemented into a hierarchical Bayesian model, to analyze the remaining six data sets we deem most reliable. In the fitting of the data, we consistently model all known sources of uncertainty, including discrepant absolute normalizations of different data sets, and also take the variation of the neutron and proton channel radii into account, hence providing less biased estimates of the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear rates. From the resulting posteriors, we extract R -matrix parameters ($E_r, γ^2_n, γ^2_p$) and derive excitation energies and partial and total widths. Our fit is sensitive to the contributions of the first three levels above the neutron threshold. Reaction rates were computed by integrating 10,000 samples of the reduced cross section. Our 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear rates have uncertainties between 1.5% and 2.0% at temperatures of ≤1 GK. Finally, we compare our rates to previous results and find that the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li rates most commonly used in big bang simulations have uncertainties that are too optimistic.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for low mass dark matter in DarkSide-50: the bayesian network approach

Abstract We present a novel approach for the search of dark matter in the DarkSide-50 experiment, relying on Bayesian Networks. This method incorporates the detector response model into the likelihood function, explicitly maintaining the connection with the quantity of interest. No assumptions about the linearity of the problem or the shape of the probability distribution functions are required, and there is no need to morph signal and background spectra as a function of nuisance parameters. By expressing the problem in terms of Bayesian Networks, we have developed an inference algorithm based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo to calculate the posterior probability. A clever description of the detector response model in terms of parametric matrices allows us to study the impact of systematic variations of any parameter on the final results. Our approach not only provides the desired information on the parameter of interest, but also potential constraints on the response model. Our results are consistent with recent published analyses and further refine the parameters of the detector response model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Holocene paleoclimate change in the western US: The importance of chronology in discerning patterns and drivers

We report sediment in lakes and meadows forms a powerful archive that can be used to reconstruct environmental change through time. Reconstructions of lake level, of chemical, biological, and hydrological conditions, and of surrounding vegetation provide detailed information about past climate conditions, both locally and regionally. Indeed, most of our current knowledge of centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the arid western United States, where information about past hydroclimate is particularly important, comes from such sediment-based reconstructions. The pressing need for robust, precise predictions of future conditions is a significant motivation for paleoclimate science, and current research questions frequently require Holocene reconstructions to be resolved at sub-centennial timescales. Increasingly, regional syntheses seek to identify synoptic-scale patterns similar to those defined from modern observations (seasonal, interannual, multi-decadal, etc.) or to compare with the output of climate model simulations. However, the age control on existing records, especially those more than about 20 years old, is often sufficient only for millennial-scale interpretation. Here we assess the age control for 84 published and unpublished records from lakes and meadows in the Great Basin, California, and desert southwest, and use Bayesian modeling to evaluate the 95% uncertainty ranges for the 42 best-dated records. In the Late Holocene, about half of the 42 records have <400-year mean uncertainty ranges; however, high-precision age control is especially critical for young records, used to develop an accurate understanding of a proxy’s response to known climate variations. In the Middle Holocene, records vary from 400 to >800-year mean uncertainty and records of the Early Holocene have 600- to >1400-year mean uncertainty ranges. We find that the largest control on modeled uncertainties is dating density, with at least 2 dates/kyr being optimal and suggest obtaining “range-finder” dates at the onset of a study to better predict the total number of dates needed for an adequate age model. Such a density avoids a commonly observed phenomenon of significant peaks in uncertainty arising in gaps between age control points. Analysis of the uncertainties associated with proxy shifts reveal that more than half are >400 years. Although such large uncertainties currently prevent sub-centennial interpretations in most cases, increased dating density, strategic use of limited funds (including budgeting for a 2 date/kyr minimum at the proposal stage), construction of age-depth models with Bayesian methods, and critical evaluation of chronological uncertainty will shed light on past climate variability at finer timescales, enhancing our understanding of global and regional drivers of western U.S. climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Nonintrusive Uncertainty Quantification of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations of a Bench-Scale Fluidized-Bed Gasifier

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis is increasingly becoming one of the major requirements of simulation-based engineering to assess the confidence in the results and make better-informed decisions based on the insight derived from the simulations. In an earlier study, Bayesian UQ analysis was applied to existing bench-scale fluidized-bed gasifier experiment results. In the current study, a series of simulations were carried over with the open-source computational fluid dynamics software MFiX to reproduce the experimental conditions, where three operating factors, i.e., coal flow rate, coal particle diameter, and steam-to-oxygen ratio, were systematically varied to understand their effect on the syngas composition. Bayesian UQ analysis was this time performed on the numerical results for comparison purposes. This is part of ongoing research efforts to explore the applicability of advanced UQ methods and processes such as Bayesian methods for large-scale complex multiphase flow simulations. As part of Bayesian UQ analysis, a global sensitivity analysis was performed based on the simulation results, which shows that the predicted syngas composition is strongly affected not only by the steam-to-oxygen ratio (which was observed in experiments as well) but also by variation in the coal flow rate and particle diameter (which was not observed in experiments). The carbon monoxide mole fraction is underpredicted at lower steam-to-oxygen ratios and overpredicted at higher steam-to-oxygen ratios. The opposite trend is observed for the carbon dioxide mole fraction. These discrepancies are attributed to either excessive segregation of the phases that leads to the fuel-rich or -lean regions or alternatively the selection of reaction models, where different reaction models and kinetics can lead to different syngas compositions throughout the gasifier.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2017

Uncertainty Quantification Analysis of Both Experimental and CFD Simulation Data of a Bench-scale Fluidized Bed Gasifier

Adequate assessment of the uncertainties in modeling and simulation is becoming an integral part of the simulation based engineering design. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the application of non-intrusive Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology in multiphase (gas-solid) flows with experimental and simulation data, as part of our research efforts to determine the most suited approach for UQ of a bench scale fluidized bed gasifier. UQ analysis was first performed on the available experimental data. Global sensitivity analysis performed as part of the UQ analysis shows that among the three operating factors, steam to oxygen ratio has the most influence on syngas composition in the bench-scale gasifier experiments. An analysis for forward propagation of uncertainties was performed and results show that an increase in steam to oxygen ratio leads to an increase in H2 mole fraction and a decrease in CO mole fraction. These findings are in agreement with the ANOVA analysis performed in the reference experimental study. Another contribution in addition to the UQ analysis is the optimization-based approach to guide to identify next best set of additional experimental samples, should the possibility arise for additional experiments. Hence, the surrogate models constructed as part of the UQ analysis is employed to improve the information gain and make incremental recommendation, should the possibility to add more experiments arise. In the second step, series of simulations were carried out with the open-source computational fluid dynamics software MFiX to reproduce the experimental conditions, where three operating factors, i.e., coal flow rate, coal particle diameter, and steam-to-oxygen ratio, were systematically varied to understand their effect on the syngas composition. Bayesian UQ analysis was performed on the numerical results. As part of Bayesian UQ analysis, a global sensitivity analysis was performed based on the simulation results, which shows that the predicted syngas composition is strongly affected not only by the steam-to-oxygen ratio (which was observed in experiments as well) but also by variation in the coal flow rate and particle diameter (which was not observed in experiments). The carbon monoxide mole fraction is underpredicted at lower steam-to-oxygen ratios and overpredicted at higher steam-to-oxygen ratios. The opposite trend is observed for the carbon dioxide mole fraction. These discrepancies are attributed to either excessive segregation of the phases that leads to the fuel-rich or -lean regions or alternatively the selection of reaction models, where different reaction models and kinetics can lead to different syngas compositions throughout the gasifier. To improve quality of numerical models used, the effect that uncertainties in reaction models for gasification, char oxidation, carbon monoxide oxidation, and water gas shift will have on the syngas composition at different grid resolution, along with bed temperature were investigated. The global sensitivity analysis showed that among various reaction models employed for water gas shift, gasification, char oxidation, the choice of reaction model for water gas shift has the greatest influence on syngas composition, with gasification reaction model being second. Syngas composition also shows a small sensitivity to temperature of the bed. The hydrodynamic behavior of the bed did not change beyond grid spacing of 18 times the particle diameter. However, the syngas concentration continued to be affected by the grid resolution as low as 9 times the particle diameter. This is due to a better resolution of the phasic interface between the gases and solid that leads to stronger heterogeneous reactions. This report is a compilation of three manuscripts published in peer-reviewed journals for the series of studies mentioned above.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2015

Density functional theory and chromium: Insights from the dimers

The binding in small Cr clusters is re-investigated, where the correct description of the dimer in three charge states is used as criterion to assign the most suitable density functional theory approximation. The difficulty in chromium arises from the subtle interplay between energy gain from hybridization and energetic cost due to exchange between s and d based molecular orbitals. Variations in published bond lengths and binding energies are shown to arise from insufficient numerical representation of electron density and Kohn-Sham wave-functions. The best functional performance is found for gradient corrected (GGA) functionals and meta-GGAs, where we find severe differences between functionals from the same family due to the importance of exchange. Only the “best fit” from Bayesian error estimation is able to predict the correct energetics for all three charge states unambiguously. With this knowledge, we predict small bond-lengths to be exclusively present in Cr{sub 2} and Cr{sub 2}{sup −}. Already for the dimer cation, solely long bond-lengths appear, similar to what is found in the trimer and in chromium bulk.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolution of homologous recombination rates across bacteria

Bacteria are nonsexual organisms but are capable of exchanging DNA at diverse degrees through homologous recombination. Intriguingly, the rates of recombination vary immensely across lineages where some species have been described as purely clonal and others as “quasi-sexual.” However, estimating recombination rates has proven a difficult endeavor and estimates often vary substantially across studies. It is unclear whether these variations reflect natural variations across populations or are due to differences in methodologies. Consequently, the impact of recombination on bacterial evolution has not been extensively evaluated and the evolution of recombination rate—as a trait—remains to be accurately described. Here, we developed an approach based on Approximate Bayesian Computation that integrates multiple signals of recombination to estimate recombination rates. We inferred the rate of recombination of 162 bacterial species and one archaeon and tested the robustness of our approach. Our results confirm that recombination rates vary drastically across bacteria; however, we found that recombination rate—as a trait—is conserved in several lineages but evolves rapidly in others. Although some traits are thought to be associated with recombination rate (e.g., GC-content), we found no clear association between genomic or phenotypic traits and recombination rate. Overall, our results provide an overview of recombination rate, its evolution, and its impact on bacterial evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Adaptation of fan motor and VFD efficiency correlations using Bayesian inference

Energy performance contracts (EPC) are types of agreements in which a service provider guarantees that customers’ buildings will achieve a specified energy performance (i.e., minimum energy savings) to reduce the risk of their investment in energy efficiency improvements. EPC requires prediction of future energy consumption of the building, at the design stage, before construction or major retrofit. To this end, building energy simulations taking into account all the major energy-using components are performed. In particular, fans can contribute significantly to the total building consumption. The overall efficiency of fans is the combination of three factors: mechanical, motor, and variable frequency drive (VFD). Manufacturers usually provide fan mechanical efficiency curves for a broad operating range. In contrast, motor and VFD efficiencies are generally given at rating conditions only. To represent part-load conditions, correlations are typically used to estimate motor and VFD efficiency variations, to evaluate the overall electricity consumption. The first aim of this study is to evaluate existing correlations for motor and VFD efficiency as a function of load and speed, by comparison with manufacturer data, for a vendor that has shared its detailed test data. While VFD efficiency correlations from the literature provide reasonable accuracy against real data, motor correlations under predict actual motor efficiency at low loads. Finally, the second aim of the paper is to improve such correlations using Bayesian inference to fit the available data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE NANOGRAV NINE-YEAR DATA SET: OBSERVATIONS, ARRIVAL TIME MEASUREMENTS, AND ANALYSIS OF 37 MILLISECOND PULSARS

We present high-precision timing observations spanning up to nine years for 37 millisecond pulsars monitored with the Green Bank and Arecibo radio telescopes as part of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project. We describe the observational and instrumental setups used to collect the data, and methodology applied for calculating pulse times of arrival; these include novel methods for measuring instrumental offsets and characterizing low signal-to-noise ratio timing results. The time of arrival data are fit to a physical timing model for each source, including terms that characterize time-variable dispersion measure and frequency-dependent pulse shape evolution. In conjunction with the timing model fit, we have performed a Bayesian analysis of a parameterized timing noise model for each source, and detect evidence for excess low-frequency, or “red,” timing noise in 10 of the pulsars. For 5 of these cases this is likely due to interstellar medium propagation effects rather than intrisic spin variations. Subsequent papers in this series will present further analysis of this data set aimed at detecting or limiting the presence of nanohertz-frequency gravitational wave signals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling of Floods With Geomorphologic Characteristics and Precipitation Variability Across the Conterminous United States

Abstract Accurate flood risk assessment requires a comprehensive understanding of flood sensitivity to regional drivers and climate factors. This paper presents the scaling of floods (duration, peak, volume) with geomorphologic characteristics of the basin (i.e., drainage area, slope, elevation) and precipitation patterns (rainfall accumulation, variability). Long‐term daily streamflow observations over the 20th and early 21st centuries from Hydro‐Climatic Data Network streamgages across the conterminous United States are used to create a flood event database based on their flood stage information. Antecedent daily rainfall accumulation and variability corresponding to these floods are computed using Global Historical Climatology Network daily data set. Two Bayesian scaling models are developed, and the spatial organization of scaling exponents is investigated. The baseline model quantifies the scaling of floods to geomorphologic characteristics. The dynamic model quantifies the scaling of floods to antecedent precipitation distribution which is further conditioned on geomorphologic characteristics. Results show that small and low‐elevation basins have a stronger response to antecedent rainfall distribution in amplifying flood peaks, while high‐elevation steeper basins have a lower response for flood duration and volume. The dynamic models demonstrate that there are significant variations in the flood scaling rates, with the largest rates up to 40% and 4.5% for flood duration, 64% and 44% for peak, and 98% and 40% for volume found across the Northeast, Coastal Southeast, and Northwest with intensifying rainfall accumulation and variability, respectively. This study advances flood predictions by better informing the flood attributes in the context of dynamical land‐atmosphere perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and optimization of precipitating hydrometeor parameters for winter precipitation in a cloud microphysics scheme

The precipitating hydrometeor parameters used in cloud microphysics schemes carry inherent uncertainties. The quantification of these uncertainties, together with parameter optimization, can significantly improve precipitation forecasts. This study investigates the effects of 13 parameters in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme, which define the hydrometeor characteristics such as fall velocity–diameter and mass–diameter relationships, as well as the shape parameter of the drop size distribution for precipitating particles such as rain, snow, and graupel on simulated winter precipitation. A comparison between the model's pre-defined parameters and observations from the International Collaborative Experiments for the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018) field campaign reveals that the fall velocity–diameter relationship for rain, the mass–diameter relationships for snow and graupel, and the shape parameters for all precipitating particles in the WDM6 scheme deviate from the median values observed by the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD). To quantify parameter sensitivities, a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of 256 simulations was conducted within parameter ranges constrained by 2DVD observations for three winter precipitation cases. Bayesian optimization was then applied to identify parameter sets that minimized the root mean square error (RMSE) for each case, achieving reductions of up to 30.2 %. These results demonstrate that ensemble-based uncertainty quantification and parameter optimization can help identify key parameters and provide a pathway to improving precipitation simulation performance. In addition, measurement sites can be strategically selected based on regions that show high sensitivity to variations in hydrometeor characteristic parameters.

Bayesian optimization↗