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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Conjunction Assessment Late-Notice High-Interest Event Investigation: Space Weather Aspects

Late-notice events usually driven by large changes in primary (protected) object or secondary object state. Main parameter to represent size of state change is component position difference divided by associated standard deviation (epsilon divided by sigma) from covariance. Investigation determined actual frequency of large state changes, in both individual and combined states. Compared them to theoretically expected frequencies. Found that large changes ( (epsilon divided by sigma) is greater than 3) in individual object states occur much more frequently than theory dictates. Effect is less pronounced in radial components and in events with probability of collision (Pc) greater than 1 (sup -5) (1e-5). Found combined state matched much closer to theoretical expectation, especially for radial and cross-track. In-track is expected to be the most vulnerable to modeling errors, so not surprising that non-compliance largest in this component.

Conjunction↗
NASA NTRS2021

Bias Correction of Hydrologic Projections Strongly Impacts Inferred Climate Vulnerabilities in Institutionally Complex Water Systems

Water-resources planners use regional water management models (WMMs) to identify vulnerabilities to climate change. Frequently, dynamically downscaled climate inputs are used in conjunction with land-surface models (LSMs) to provide hydrologic streamflow projections, which serve as critical inputs for WMMs. Here, we show how even modest projection errors can strongly affect assessments of water availability and financial stability for irrigation districts in California. Specifically, our results highlight that LSM errors in projections of flood and drought extremes are highly interactive across timescales, path-dependent, and can be amplified when modeling infrastructure systems (e.g., misrepresenting banked groundwater). Common strategies for reducing errors in deterministic LSM hydrologic projections (e.g., bias correction) can themselves strongly distort projected climate vulnerabilities and misrepresent their inferred financial consequences. Overall, our results indicate a need to move beyond standard deterministic climate projection and error management frameworks that are dependent on single simulated climate change scenario outcomes.

Keyvan Malek↗
NASA NTRS2022

Compound Effects of Climate Change on Future Transboundary Water Issues in the Middle East

The Middle East is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to climate change, which has exacerbated environmental, agricultural, water conflict, and public health issues in the region. Here we analyze the latest climate model projections of precipitation and temperature for the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5,to detect potential future changes in this region. A baseline period (1981-2010) is compared with the middle(2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21stcentury. The results, representing the worst-case scenario, identify the Tigris-Euphrates headwaters as the hotspot of future compounding effects of climate change in the Middle East. Those effects result from the coincidence of elevated temperature, reduced precipitation, and enhanced interannual variability of precipitation. The hotspot overlays the location of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP) irrigation initiative. In this climate context, risks to GAP viability and downstream water security, and associated potential for water-related conflicts and migration are considerable and demand a reconsideration of the risk-benefit assessment of GAP. This need has become more urgent after the recent widespread and deadly climate-related conflicts and wildfires in summer 2021 across the Middle East that further underlined vulnerability of the region to climate extremes.

Tigris-Euphrates headwater↗
NASA NTRS2010

Use of Land Use Land Cover Change Mapping Products in Aiding Coastal Habitat Conservation and Restoration Efforts of the Mobile Bay NEP

The Mobile Bay region has undergone significant land use land cover change (LULC) over the last 35 years, much of which is associated with urbanization. These changes have impacted the region s water quality and wildlife habitat availability. In addition, much of the region is low-lying and close to the Gulf, which makes the region vulnerable to hurricanes, climate change (e.g., sea level rise), and sometimes man-made disasters such as the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill. Land use land cover change information is needed to help coastal zone managers and planners to understand and mitigate the impacts of environmental change on the region. This presentation discusses selective results of a current NASA-funded project in which Landsat data over a 34-year period (1974-2008) is used to produce, validate, refine, and apply land use land cover change products to aid coastal habitat conservation and restoration needs of the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (MB NEP). The project employed a user defined classification scheme to compute LULC change mapping products for the entire region, which includes the majority of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Additional LULC change products have been computed for select coastal HUC-12 sub-watersheds adjacent to either Mobile Bay or the Gulf of Mexico, as part of the MB NEP watershed profile assessments. This presentation will include results of additional analyses of LULC change for sub-watersheds that are currently high priority areas, as defined by MB NEP. Such priority sub-watersheds include those that are vulnerable to impacts from the DWH oil spill, as well as sub-watersheds undergoing urbanization. Results demonstrating the nature and permanence of LULC change trends for these higher priority sub-watersheds and results characterizing change for the entire 34-year period and at approximate 10-year intervals across this period will also be presented. Future work will include development of value-added coastal habitat quality assessment products that will be used by the MB NEP and its partners in the planning of coastal conservation and restoration activities.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution and Climate Change for Sustainable Development in Africa - Summary for Decision Makers

Air pollution and climate change are a deadly duo for Africa, and must be tackled together. Air pollutants and greenhouse gases often share the same sources and can be even more dangerous when combined. Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and currently, an estimated 1 million people per year die prematurely from air pollution on the continent. But there is a way to improve the situation: preventing emissions from short-lived climate pollutants, like methane and black carbon, is crucial for the world to stay below 1.5°C. Reducing SLCPs will help both save lives and protect the environment. Africa has a huge opportunity to continue developing sustainably, improve human well-being, and protect nature by investing in solutions to fight climate change and air pollution together. A new Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution and Climate Change for Sustainable Development in Africa from the African Union Commission, the Climate and Clean Air Coalition, and the UN Environment Programme, developed by African scientists in a process led by the Stockholm Environment Institute, shows how African leaders can act quickly across 5 key areas—transport, residential, energy, agriculture, and waste—to fight climate change, prevent air pollution, and protect human health.

Africa↗
NASA NTRS2011

Burst Pressure Failure of Titanium Tanks Damaged by Secondary Plumes from Hypervelocity Impacts on Aluminum Shields

Metallic pressure tanks used in space missions are inherently vulnerable to hypervelocity impacts from micrometeoroids and orbital debris; thereby knowledge of impact damage and its effect on the tank integrity is crucial to a spacecraft risk assessment. This paper describes tests that have been performed to assess the effects of hypervelocity impact (HVI) damage on Titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V) pressure vessels burst pressure and characteristics. The tests consisted of a pair of HVI impact tests on water-filled Ti-6Al-4V tanks (water being used as a surrogate to the actual propellant) and subsequent burst tests as well as a burst test on an undamaged control tank. The tanks were placed behind Aluminum (Al) shields and then each was impacted with a 7 km/s projectile. The resulting impact debris plumes partially penetrated the Ti-6Al-4V tank surfaces resulting in a distribution of craters. During the burst tests, the tank that failed at a lower burst pressure did appear to have the failure initiating at a crater site with observed spall cracks. A fracture mechanics analysis showed that the tanks failure at the impact location may have been due to a spall crack that formed upon impact of a fragmentation on the Titanium surface. This result was corroborated with a finite element analysis from calculated Von-Mises and hoop stresses.

Nahra, Henry↗
NASA NTRS2015

Recommendations on Future Science and Engineering Studies for Ocean Color

The Ocean Health Index measured Ecological Integrity as the relative condition of assessed species in a given location. This was calculated as the weighted sum of the International Union for Conservation of Natures (IUCN) assessments of species. Weights used were based on the level of extinction risk following Butchart et al.2007: EX (extinct) 0.0, CR (critically endangered) 0.2, EN (endangered) 0.5, VU (vulnerable) 0.7, NT (not threatened) 0.9, and LC (least concern) 0.99. For primarily coastal goals, the spatial average of these per pixel scores was based on a 3nmi buffer; for goals derived from all ocean waters, the spatial average was computed for the entire EEZ.

Geo-Cape↗
NASA NTRS2020

Bhutan Water Resources Tech Paper: Comparing Precipitation, Temperature, and Phenology Data Trends in Bhutan to Assist the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) Project

Himalayan countries, including Bhutan, have become vulnerable to warming trends which result in increasing temperature and variable rainfall and snowfall. By combining phenological and meteorological data, Earth observation platforms and sensors were used to assess trends in precipitation, temperature, and vegetation phenology in Bhutan from 1996 through 2017. This project studied precipitation using Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station data, analyzed temperature using the Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System, incorporated elevation data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, and assessed vegetation phenology using Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to evaluate climate variability and its effects on Bhutan. In situ temperature and precipitation data were also collected from the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) project and Bhutan’s National Center for Hydrology and Meterology. Modeled and in situ data showed similar trends in precipitation and temperature for the Thimpu, Chhukha, and Gasa regions. Aqua and Terra MODIS phenology data were variable from year to year. However, the data suggested a late onset of spring green up. Partners at the Bhutan Foundation and locally in Bhutan can use this information to better understand and monitor climate variability and replicate these methods for future analysis.

Kinley Dorji↗
NASA NTRS2020

Bhutan Water Resources Project Summary - Comparing Precipitation, Temperature, and Phenology Data Trends in Bhutan to Assist the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) Project

Himalayan countries, including Bhutan, have become vulnerable to warming trends which result in increasing temperature and variable rainfall and snowfall. By combining phenological and meteorological data, Earth observation platforms and sensors were used to assess trends in precipitation, temperature, and vegetation phenology in Bhutan from 1996 through 2017. This project studied precipitation using Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station data, analyzed temperature using the Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System, incorporated elevation data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, and assessed vegetation phenology using Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to evaluate climate variability and its effects on Bhutan. In situ temperature and precipitation data were also collected from the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) project and Bhutan’s National Center for Hydrology and Meterology. Modeled and in situ data showed similar trends in precipitation and temperature for the Thimpu, Chhukha, and Gasa regions. Aqua and Terra MODIS phenology data were variable from year to year. However, the data suggested a late onset of spring green up. Partners at the Bhutan Foundation and locally in Bhutan can use this information to better understand and monitor climate variability and replicate these methods for future analysis.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
NASA NTRS2007

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been annunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAPs) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy matters, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are authors on a SAP describing the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the elements of our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Bhutan Water Resources II: Comparing Phenology, Precipitation, and Temperature Data in Bhutan to Assist the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) Project

Bhutan is vulnerable to climate fluctuations that can affect vegetation phenology patterns. Changes in the climate have raised concerns from local farmers about altered growing seasons. In response, the DEVELOP team assessed annual vegetation phenology trends across Bhutan from 1981-2014 by comparing vegetation phenology-derived data and meteorological data. The project assessed phenology change using Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products from the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors. We also used Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) precipitation data and Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) temperature data to assess climate trends in the country. The team assessed VIP phenology data for 1981-2014 to assess trends for the start of season, day of peak, and length of season. For the main growing season, the results indicated that the start of season and day of peak were delayed, while the length of season increased by 22 days. Analysis of temperature and precipitation data for the early 1980s to present indicted that Bhutan’s temperature has become warmer and precipitation has increased. Satellite-based precipitation and temperature data were compared to in situ precipitation and temperature data, yielding high correlations for both precipitation (R=0.85) and temperature (R=0.9). The project results and methods were shared with the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation and Environmental Research (UWICER) to help assess climate change impacts in Bhutan.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗
NASA NTRS1980

Perspective on the results

The results of studies on the risk due to the use of carbon fibers in aircraft are assessed. Assumptions such as additional fire protection in the aircraft, new structural concepts, and the development of unique carbon composites are evaluated. Some findings from the national risk profile including equipment vulnerability and economic impact are discussed.

Huston, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate Observations and Projections - Chapter 1

During 2013 and 2014, numerous international (IPCC, 2013) and national (Melillo et al., 2014; Gordon, 2014) reports have concluded that human activities are changing the climate, leading to increased vulnerability and risk. Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuel burning, industrial activity, and land use changes have led to a 40% increase in heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2), and an approximately 150% increase in methane (CH4), another powerful greenhouse gas (GHG), has been observed. Global temperatures have increased by close to 1 C since 1880 as the upper oceans have warmed and polar ice has retreated. These and other climate changes are projected to accelerate as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. In the coming decades, climate change is extremely likely to bring warmer temperatures in the New York metropolitan region (see Box. 1.1 and Fig.1.1 for key definitions and terms). Heat waves are very likely to increase; total annual precipitation will likely increase and brief, intense rainstorms are very likely to increase. Because of incomplete knowledge about exactly how much climate change will occur, choosing among policies for reducing future damages requires prudent risk management (Yohe and Leichenko, 2010; Kunreuther et al., 2013). Given differing risk tolerances among stakeholders, a risk management approach allows for a range of possible climate change outcomes to be examined with associated uncertainties surrounding their likelihoods. The New York City Panel on Climate Change 2 (NPCC2) projections can be used to inform planning across multiple governmental scales (e.g., city, county, state) in the New York metropolitan region. Such coordinated efforts can serve as test cases for successful local, state, and federal coordination for integrated climate adaptation initiatives. This chapter describes the global climate system, and presents observed temperature and precipitation trends and projections for the region. Chapter 2 (NPCC, 2015) focuses on sea level rise and possible changes in coastal storms. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 (NPCC, 2015) describe efforts to better understand the region's vulnerability to coastal flooding during coastal storms. The treatment of likelihood related to the NPCC projections is similar to that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (IPCC, 2007; 2013), with six likelihood categories (Box 1.1 and Fig. 1.1). The assignment of climate hazards to these categories is based on observed data, global climate model simulations, published literature, and expert judgment.

climate change↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrating Earth Observations and Socioeconomic Data to Address Health, Equity, and Environmental Justice

Access to reliable data about the characteristics of populations is a crucial component of decision making, policy development, and the assessment of progress towards strategic goals. Social determinants of health provide insight into the status of social and economic conditions within populations that have profound effects on public health, equity, and vulnerability. International frameworks such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) fundamentally focus on equality, but to efficiently address targets and indicators, socioeconomic data and Earth observations must be integrated to help identify populations most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, natural disasters, health disparities, and poor policy planning. The ability to identify vulnerable populations with data analysis has the potential to empower community stakeholders with spatial awareness needed to inform decision-making that addresses equity and environmental justice issues within their communities. The EPA defines environmental justice (EJ) as “the fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race, color, national origin, or income with respect to the development, implementation and enforcement of environmental laws, regulations and policies.” NASA’s Earth Science Division (ESD) recognizes the benefits that Earth observations with NASA satellites create by equipping individuals with the knowledge to address community challenges. NASA’s Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) supports the integration of socioeconomic and Earth science data as an “informational gateway.” This integration of data is advancing health, equity, and environmental justice initiatives.

Natasha Johnson-Griffin↗
NASA NTRS2016

Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

land-use patterns↗
NASA NTRS1980

Assessment of risk to Boeing commerical transport aircraft from carbon fibers

The possible effects of free carbon fibers on aircraft avionic equipment operation, removal costs, and safety were investigated. Possible carbon fiber flow paths, flow rates, and transfer functions into the Boeing 707, 727, 737, 747 aircraft and potentially vulnerable equipment were identified. Probabilities of equipment removal and probabilities of aircraft exposure to carbon fiber were derived.

Clarke, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes,tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards and societies vulnerability to them differ between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods, and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths, and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, andincrease propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

hydrometeorological↗