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At least 163 records · Page 9

Discrete Measurements of the Least Horizontal Principal Stress from Core Data: An Application of Viscoelastic Stress Relaxation

Summary The emerging Paradox Oil Play in southeastern Utah is among the most significant unconventional plays in the western USA. The mean total undiscovered oil resources within just the Pennsylvanian Cane Creek interval of the Paradox Basin are believed to exceed 215 million barrels. However, to date, less than 5% (~9 million barrels) of the total Cane Creek resource has been produced from fewer than 40 wells, and only approximately one-half of those are horizontal wells. More than 95% of production is from the central Cane Creek Unit (CCU). Natural fractures are a key feature of many production wells, but stimulation by induced hydraulic fractures is not consistently successful. We hypothesize that more effective production in this play will rely on better fundamental characterization, especially on better quantification of the state of stress. Approximately 110 ft of core, well logs, and a diagnostic fracture injection test (DFIT) were acquired from the State 16-2 well within the CCU. With these data, we applied two methods to constrain and clarify the state of stress. The first technique, the Simpson’s coefficient method, provides lower bounds on the two horizontal principal stresses and relies on only limited data. Alternatively, the viscoelastic stress relaxation (VSR) method is used to estimate the least horizontal principal stress, building on observations that principal stresses become more isotropic as the viscous behavior of a rock is more pronounced. Results of these two methods support the hypothesis that the state of stress in the CCU of the Paradox Basin is nearly lithostatic and isotropic. Other factors consistent with this hypothesis include high formation pore pressure, which tends to reduce the possible stress states by changing the frictional failure equilibrium; lack of induced fractures in the core, which should be present in the case of stress anisotropy; and interbedded halite layers, which given their high degree of ductility, probably lead to greater VSR for the entire sedimentary package.

Energy & Fuels↗

Optimizing Deep Geothermal Drilling for Energy Sustainability in the Appalachian Basin

This study investigates the geological and geomechanical characteristics of the MIP 1S geothermal well in the Appalachian Basin to optimize drilling and address the wellbore stability issues encountered. Data from well logs, sidewall core analysis, and injection tests were used to derive elastic and rock strength properties, as well as stress and pore pressure profiles. A robust 1D-geomechanical model was developed and validated, correlating strongly with wellbore instability observations. This revealed significant wellbore breakout, widening the diameter from 12 ¼ inches to over 16 inches. Advanced technologies like Cerebro Force™ In-Bit Sensing were used to monitor drilling performance with high accuracy. This technology tracks critical metrics such as bit acceleration, vibration in the x, y, and z directions, Gyro RPM, stick-slip indicators, and bending on the bit. Cerebro Force™ readings identified hole drag caused by poor hole conditions, including friction between the drill string and wellbore walls and the presence of cuttings or debris. This led to higher torque and weight on bit (WOB) readings at the surface compared to downhole measurements, affecting drilling efficiency and wellbore stability. Optimal drilling parameters for future deep geothermal wells were determined based on these findings.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Stepwise Dynamic Calibration of a Hydromechanical Simulation Using Time-Lapse Vertical Seismic Profile

This study aims to develop a methodology for calibrating subsurface stress changes through time-lapse Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) integration. The selected study site is the 13-10A injector well within the ongoing CO2-EOR operation of the Farnsworth Field Unit. The Time-lapse VSP dataset carries the combined effects of fluid substitution and mean effective stress changes, thereby providing a dataset amenable for the calibration of production and injection-induced stress changes. The concept is similar to calibrating a reservoir simulation model in that the process honor real field data to set up an inverse problem. The solution optimizes the independent and impactful geomechanical parameters that replicate the observed time-lapse seismic velocity changes. This stress calibration is enabled by 4D geomechanical modeling and the VSP Integration workflow. This calibration benefits from extensive geological, geophysical and geomechanical characterization through 3D seismic data, geophysical well logs, and core assessed as part of the 1D MEM conducted on the 13-10A subject well. These data are used to develop a site-specific rock physics model. The Biot Gassmann workflow combines rock physics and reservoir simulation outputs to determine the fluid substitution contribution to seismic velocity change. Additionally, modeled seismic velocity attributed to mean effective stress are determined from the geomechanical simulation outputs, and the stress-velocity relationship developed from the ultrasonic seismic velocity measurements on the extracted Morrow B core. A penalty function is then formed between the modeled seismic velocities and the observed time-lapse VSP dataset. Four independent and impactful geomechanical parameters have been determined. These are the bulk modulus and shear modulus for zero porosity and the shear and compressional seismic velocity to mean effective stress derivatives. The dataset of numerous coupled hydromechanical- geomechanical simulation realizations is built by combining variations of the four stated geomechanical parameters. A machine learning-assisted workflow comprised of an artificial neural network and a particle swarm optimizer are used to converge on the optimal geomechanical parameters. The successful execution of this workflow has affirmed the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements for 4D-VSP geomechanical stress calibration pending measurable stress sensitivities within the anticipated effective stress changes and the availability of suitable and reliable datasets for petroelastic modeling.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Deposition, Diagenesis, and Sequence Stratigraphy of the Pennsylvanian Morrowan and Atokan Intervals at Farnsworth Unit

Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), a mature oilfield currently undergoing CO2-enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in the northeastern Texas panhandle, is the study area for an extensive project undertaken by the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP). SWP is characterizing the field and monitoring and modeling injection and fluid flow processes with the intent of verifying storage of CO2 in a timeframe of 100–1000 years. Collection of a large set of data including logs, core, and 3D geophysical data has allowed us to build a detailed reservoir model that is well-grounded in observations from the field. This paper presents a geological description of the rocks comprising the reservoir that is a target for both oil production and CO2 storage, as well as the overlying units that make up the primary and secondary seals. Core descriptions and petrographic analyses were used to determine depositional setting, general lithofacies, and a diagenetic sequence for reservoir and caprock at FWU. The reservoir is in the Pennsylvanian-aged Morrow B sandstone, an incised valley fluvial deposit that is encased within marine shales. The Morrow B exhibits several lithofacies with distinct appearance as well as petrophysical characteristics. The lithofacies are typical of incised valley fluvial sequences and vary from a relatively coarse conglomerate base to an upper fine sandstone that grades into the overlying marine-dominated shales and mudstone/limestone cyclical sequences of the Thirteen Finger limestone. Observations ranging from field scale (seismic surveys, well logs) to microscopic (mercury porosimetry, petrographic microscopy, microprobe and isotope data) provide a rich set of data on which we have built our geological and reservoir models.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Assessing mechanical response of CO 2 storage into a depleted carbonate reef using a site-scale geomechanical model calibrated with field tests and InSAR monitoring data

Geomechanical risks of injection have raised concerns regarding secure CO 2 storage. In this work, a combined monitoring and modeling approach is used to assess the stress changes and surface uplift associated with CO 2 injection into a depleted carbonate reef of the Michigan basin. A site-scale geomechanical model is built by assigning mechanical properties of formations using well-log and experimental data. Gravity load is applied to the model to estimate the vertical component of stress as well as different lateral boundary displacement scenarios to estimate horizontal stresses. We used a poroelastic pressure-dependent model (instead of a linear elastic mechanical earth model) to calibrate initial stresses using hydraulic fracture test data measured at depleted reservoir status. Multi-phase fluid flow-geomechanical simulations are performed to estimate the poroelastic response during (1) primary depletion (2) field-scale CO 2 injection phase (3) a hypothetical forecast scenario in which well bottom hole pressure (BHP) reach 45000 KPa. The predicted surface uplift is less than 1 mm at the end of the field-scale CO 2 injection phase which is in good agreement with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) uplift measurement. Although the InSAR data shows an insignificant uplift, hydromechanical modeling of injection shows that CO 2 injection still causes reservoir deformation emphasizing the role of carbonate overburden and reservoir formation mechanical properties and limited size of reef on diminishing the surface deformation. Modeling indicates poroelastic response of caprock matters to estimate uplift. The lower permeability of the top two layers provides additional barrier to large uplift. Also, history of subsidence due to production should be accounted to predict uplift due to a follow up injection correctly. This report shows the significance of combining a calibrated geomechanical model with field measured stresses and monitoring data to be used as a tool to ensure the safety of CO 2 storage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Mechanisms for Methane Transport and Hydrate Accumulation in Coarse-Grained Reservoirs

The distribution of natural methane hydrate within high saturation reservoirs and mechanisms that control the migration of methane are an active area of research. In this project, we studied methane migration mechanisms and associated hydrate accumulation rates in coarse-grained sands of the Terrebonne Basin, located in Walker Ridge Block 313 (WR313), northern Gulf of Mexico. Hydrate in this area is distributed heterogeneously within ~900 m of methane hydrate stability zone, in both thick (10-25 m) and thin (< 3 m) sand layers, and in units of subvertical hydrate-filled fractures. We investigated hydrate formation from diffusively and advectively supplied methane using one-, two-, and three-dimensional basin modeling with inputs from well log and seismic data. The hydrate accumulations at WR313 can mostly be explained by short, diffusive migration of methane as well as short-range advective transport of methane from clays into neighboring coarser-grained layers. This is likely enhanced by small-scale lithologic variations, including local microbial methanogenesis in interbedded clays. Furthermore, our work shows overpressure in clay sediments surrounding sand reservoirs may enhance short-range diffusive migration. Long-range migration of dissolved methane and gas mainly influence hydrate saturation right at the base of the hydrate stability zone, although the dissolved phase can be channeled upwards along sands by compaction-driven flow. Capillary effects can allow gas bubbles to migrate appreciable distances above the predicted base of gas hydrate stability, possibly reaching a few tens of meters into the hydrate stability zone. Recycling methane from hydrate buried beneath the base of the hydrate stability zone can concentrate hydrate at large saturations within a few tens of meters of the base of hydrate stability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

MICP in the Field: Enhancement of Wellbore Cement Integrity and Permeability Modification

Microbially-induced calcite precipitation (MICP) is being widely researched as an emerging technology for subsurface engineering applications including sealing defects in wellbore cement and modifying the permeability of rock formations [1]. Our study team, including Montana State University’s Energy Research Institute and Center for Biofilm Engineering, The University of Stuttgart, Montana Emergent Technologies, and Schlumberger Carbon Services, has conducted two successful MICP-based field trials. The first field test successfully used MICP to seal a horizontal “pancake fracture” in tight sandstone [2]. The following test resulted in MICP sealing of compromised wellbore cement. Both tests were carried out in the Gorgas well in Alabama and used the ureolytic bacteria, Sporosarcina pasteurii, to promote calcium carbonate precipitation. A third field test is now underway targeting an existing oil well, Rexing #4, in Indiana. The Rexing #4 well was previously used as an injection well to sweep residual oil to production wells. Several years ago, injection pressure was lost, and the well was removed from service. Subsequent well logging measurements suggested that, rather than entering the target injection formation, injectate was traveling up the wellbore through defects in the well cement to a sandstone thief zone approximately 50 feet above the target formation. The goal of the field demonstration project at the Rexing #4 well is to use MICP to reduce permeability in the thief zone and cement defect until the injection pressure reaches the pre-breakthrough condition necessary to return Rexing #4 to service as an injection well. The field demonstration in Indiana, funded by the US Department of Energy, will be conducted the first week of December 2017 using a custom mobile laboratory designed for field applications of MICP. Results presented at the conference will include a rationale for the injection strategy employed, as well as its success at sealing the leakage pathway.

Kirkland, Catherine↗

Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County (Project OASIS): Task 4.0 Deliverable – Geologic Analysis Report

Project OASIS (Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County) is a geologic and reservoir characterization study designed to evaluate deep saline formations for potential long-term carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage in central Alabama near the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) and Alabama Power’s Plant Gaston. The project centers on the Cambro-Ordovician Knox Group and underlying strata such as the Conasauga and Rome Formations, which were investigated through the drilling of two stratigraphic test wells to obtain electronic well logs, core, and sidewall core plugs. These data provide direct measurements of porosity, permeability, and lithologic variability critical for reservoir characterization. Complementing the well program, a limited 2D seismic survey was acquired to help select the site for Westover #2, and a more regional Seismic Exchange (SEI) seismic survey was licensed and interpreted to define structural and stratigraphic frameworks in a new Static Earth Model (SEM), map reservoir continuity, and identify potential sealing intervals. Integrated with geologic and reservoir modeling, these datasets form the basis for evaluating storage capacity, injectivity, and containment.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County (Project OASIS): Task 6.0 Deliverable – CarbonSAFE Phase III Readiness

The OASIS CarbonSAFE Phase II Project OASIS (Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County) is a geologic and reservoir characterization study designed to evaluate deep saline formations for potential long-term carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage in central Alabama near the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) and Alabama Power’s Plant Gaston. The project centers on understanding the potential of the Cambro-Ordovician Knox Group and underlying strata such as the Conasauga and Rome Formations for geologic storage of CO 2 . These formations were investigated as part of SECARB-USA (DE-FE0031830) and Project OASIS through the drilling of two stratigraphic test wells to obtain electronic well logs, core, and sidewall core plugs. These data provide direct measurements of porosity, permeability, and lithologic variability critical for reservoir characterization. Complementing the well program, a limited 2D seismic survey was conducted to help select the site for Westover #2 as part of SECARB-USA (DE-FE0031830), and a more regional Seismic Exchange (SEI) seismic survey was licensed and interpreted to define structural and stratigraphic frameworks in a new Static Earth Model (SEM), map reservoir continuity, and to identify potential sealing intervals. Integrated with geologic and reservoir modeling, these datasets form the basis for evaluating storage capacity, injectivity, and containment. While this document endeavors to provide readers with a high-level overview of Project OASIS activities and its suitability for subsequent CarbonSAFE Phases, such as a Phase III effort. Other project deliverables and milestones will provide more details on individual subjects.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Machine Learning Applications in Analyzing the Role of Shale Barriers and Baffles for CO2 Storage

This study uses machine learning to analyze microseismic data from the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) and quantify CO₂ plume extents. By leveraging well logs, microseismic records, and CO₂ injection metrics, the research predicts subsurface CO₂ plume dynamics. Findings show vertical clustering of microseismic events near the injection well, with CO₂ periodically breaching barriers due to buoyancy. K-Means clustering performed best, achieving the highest Silhouette Score and lowest Davies-Bouldin Index. This capability is crucial for real-time monitoring and management of CO₂ sequestration sites, validated against physical models and IBDP data, reinforcing CO₂ geological sequestration's viability and enhancing management tools.

Carr, Timothy↗

Archie's Saturation Exponent for Natural Gas Hydrate in Coarse-Grained Reservoirs

Accurately quantifying the amount of naturally occurring gas hydrate in marine and permafrost environments is important for assessing its resource potential and understanding the role of gas hydrate in the global carbon cycle. Electrical resistivity well logs are often used to calculate gas hydrate saturations, S h , using Archie's equation. Archie's equation, in turn, relies on an empirical saturation parameter, n . Though n = 1.9 has been measured for ice–bearing sands and is widely used within the hydrate community, it is highly questionable if this n value is appropriate for hydrate–bearing sands. In this work, we calibrate n for hydrate–bearing sands from the Canadian permafrost gas hydrate research well, Mallik 5L–38, by establishing an independent downhole S h profile based on compressional–wave velocity log data. Using the independently determined S h profile and colocated electrical resistivity and bulk density logs, Archie's saturation equation is solved for n , and uncertainty is tracked throughout the iterative process. In addition to the Mallik 5L–38 well, we also apply this method to two marine, coarse–grained reservoirs from the northern Gulf of Mexico Gas Hydrate Joint Industry Project: Walker Ridge 313–H and Green Canyon 955–H. All locations yield similar results, each suggesting n ≈ 2.5 ± 0.5. Furthermore, for the coarse–grained hydrate bearing ( S h > 0.4) of greatest interest as potential energy resources, we suggest that n = 2.5 ± 0.5 should be applied in Archie's equation for either marine or permafrost gas hydrate settings if independent estimates of n are not available.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Injection and Monitoring at the Wallula Basalt Pilot Project

Continental flood basalts represent one of the largest geologic structures on earth but have received comparatively little attention for geologic storage of CO2. Flood basalt lava flows have flow tops that are porous, permeable, and have large potential capacity for storage of CO2. In appropriate geologic settings, interbedded sediment layers and dense low-permeability basalt rock flow interior sections may act as effective seals allowing time for mineralization reactions to occur. Previous laboratory experiments showed the relatively rapid chemical reaction of CO2-saturated pore water with basalts to form stable carbonate minerals. However, recent laboratory tests with water-saturated supercritical CO2 show that mineralization reactions occur in this phase as well, providing a second and potentially more important mineralization pathway than was previously understood. Field testing of these concepts is proceeding with drilling of the world’s first supercritical CO2 injection well in flood basalt being completed in May 2009 near the township of Wallula in Washington State and corresponding CO2 injection permit granted by the State of Washington in March 2011. Injection of a nominal 1000 MT of CO2 was completed in August 2013 and site monitoring is in progress. Well logging conducted immediately after injection termination confirmed the presence of CO2 predominantly within the upper flow top region, and showed no evidence of vertical CO2 migration outside the well casing. Shallow soil gas samples collected around the injection well show no evidence of leakage and fluid and gas samples collected from the injection zone show strongly elevated concentrations of Ca, Mg, Mn, and Fe and 13C/18O isotopic shifts that are consistent with basalt-water chemical reactions. If proven viable by this field test and others that are in progress or being planned, major flood basalts in the U.S., India, and perhaps Australia would provide significant additional CO2 storage capacity and additional geologic sequestration options in regions of these countries where conventional storage options are limited.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Williston Basin Resource Study for Commercial-Scale Subsurface Hydrogen Storage

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the EERC’s State Energy Research Center (SERC), MPLX Operations LLC, and TC Energy Development Holdings Inc. (a subsidiary of TC Energy Corporation), studied the potential for subsurface hydrogen storage and recovery in the Williston Basin of western North Dakota. The project’s goal was to evaluate the feasibility of large-scale, secure geologic H 2 storage to support future hydrogen generation, storage, and use. This work included laboratory testing, H 2 –rock–fluid exposure experiments, literature reviews on H 2 embrittlement, and reservoir modeling and simulations. The study included an assessment of storage potential across three types of storage reservoirs using both reservoir simulation and DOE’s web-based tool SHASTA-HELP (Subsurface Hydrogen Assessment, Storage, and Technology Acceleration – Hydrogen Estimator for Logistical Planning), as well as investigation of potential H 2 production and markets for commercial-scale deployment. Building on prior EERC gas storage research, three storage options were selected for detailed evaluation: the Broom Creek Formation (a clastic saline reservoir), the Dickinson Lodgepole Mounds (DLM) complex (carbonate mud mound structures) of the Lodgepole Formation (an active oil and gas producing reservoir), and the Dunham Salt Interval of the Piper Formation (to be used for engineered salt cavern development). These targets were prioritized based on prior EERC research using datasets related to seal capacity, reservoir quality, mechanical integrity, and injectivity. Exposure tests on Broom Creek and DLM samples showed mineral dissolution and precipitation that increased brine salinity and altered reservoir rock surfaces. Although these results provide useful insight, they are limited by small sample sizes and short-term (30-day) exposure, requiring further study to assess long-term storage integrity. Salt formations were not tested because of their known nonreactivity and established mechanical stability. Results of reservoir simulations performed for a single site demonstrated that the Broom Creek Formation may be capable of receiving up to 42,000 tonnes of injected H 2 over 7 months via one well. H 2 recovery took place over 5 months, resulting in approximately 26,000 tonnes (~62% without cushion gas [CG]). This work suggests water production may be important and subsequent cycles of injection and production may perform more efficiently; however, significant site-specific work in the future is needed to assess actual reservoir performance of injection and withdrawal of H 2 storage. For oil reservoir potential, a multiple-well model was used to simulate injection of approximately 32,000 tonnes of H 2 into a single wellbore while simultaneously producing in place reservoir fluids from four offset wells to maintain reservoir pressure. The simulation results suggested a high recovery (~98%); in addition, cost advantages through existing infrastructure could be realized. Challenges in this reservoir include vi managing gas purity and leakage risks. In both scenarios, production of H 2 takes place in a single-well scenario with 10 cycles (7 months of injection and 5 months of production) over 10 years. Finally, the use of engineered caverns in the Dunhan Salt was evaluated, and the results suggest that while they have a smaller capacity (<1000 tonnes per cavern), they exhibit nearly complete gas recovery (>99%), fast response times, and low purity risk. While caverns in North Dakota may be smaller in capacity, fields can be developed in galleries to accommodate the volumetric needs and rapid turnaround times necessary to meet market demands. Geographic limitations and thin salt intervals in North Dakota may represent less total storage potential than salt domes elsewhere, but significant opportunities exist to expand this market for gas storage in North Dakota. A basinwide assessment was performed to estimate a first-of-its-kind value for H 2 storage on a large scale. DOE’s SHASTA-HELP, combined with EERC simulation work, was used to perform the assessment. Estimated H 2 storage potential varied widely for each formation type. The Broom Creek saline formation was estimated to have a storage potential of approximately 1.7–90.5 million tonnes (MMt). The DLM oil reservoirs were estimated to have 0.07–0.19 MMt of capacity. Notably, each of these estimates relies on significant assumptions regarding reservoir thickness, porosity, permeability, and CG needed for operation. Much research is needed to understand the true site-specific storage resource potential of each formation. Using the Dunham Salt Interval for cavern development may result in as much as 4.79 MMt (up to 2.87 MMt working gas) of H 2 storage potential. An important note for consideration is that the values presented here need significantly more geological characterization and engineering assessments prior to gaining confidence in performance. This will be a focal point for future research and development needs. The basinwide evaluation also indicated that North Dakota has significant H 2 generation potential, with estimates up to a possible 13 MMt annually, suggesting a substantial opportunity for H 2 market development and thus the need for commercial-scale H 2 storage to facilitate growth and resilience. Key Recommendations 1. Conduct detailed site characterization (3D seismic, well logs, core sampling) to reduce geologic uncertainty. 2. Perform techno-economic analyses incorporating market, regulatory, and incentive frameworks. 3. Investigate long-term interactions among H 2 , CGs, well materials, and formations to assess risks. 4. Develop pilot- and field-scale demonstrations to validate models and establish best practices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Utah FORGE: Well Acord 1-26 Logs and Data: Roosevelt Hot Spring Area

This is a compilation of logs and data from Well Acord 1-26 in the Roosevelt Hot Springs area in Utah. This well is also in the Utah FORGE study area. Logs include: mud log (45'-12645'), compensated densilog (1102'-7923', 7900'-12644'), neutron log (1102'-7923'), dual induction focused logs (1100'-7923', 7904'-11447'), BHC acoustilog (7800'-11439'), differential temperature log (380'-11448'), gamma ray neutron logs (7900'-12148', 12000'-12647'), temperature logs (7900'-12144', 7900'-12145', 7800'-12655', 7900'-12655'), and caliper log (7800'-12655'), densilog (7900'-12655'). The file is in a compressed .zip format and there is a data inventory table (Excel spreadsheet) in the root folder that is a guide to the data that is accessible in subfolders.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Coupled Hydromechanical Modeling and Assessment of Induced Seismicity at FWU: Utilizing Time-Lapse VSP and Microseismic Data

The objective of this work is to utilize integrated geomechanics, field vertical seismic profile (VSP) and microseismic data to characterize the complex subsurface stress conditions at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU). The model is based on a five-spot sector model extracted from a primary geomechanical model. The five-spot well injection pattern is characterized by extensive reservoir characterization data, such well logs, extracted cores and borehole geophone data, to facilitate the detailed examination of stress changes and microseismic event occurrences. The study utilizes field vertical seismic volumes acquired from the injection well 13-10A. The seismic volumes successfully provided snapshots of the behavior of the reservoir at distinct times. The use of VSP and microseismic data provided direct and indirect estimates of the dynamic stress changes occurring in the overburden, reservoir and underburden rock formations. In order to illuminate the stress regions and identify rocks that have undergone inelastic failure, microseismic event occurrences were utilized. Microseismic activity has been detected at the FWU; further study of its locations, timing, and magnitude was needed to deduce the nature of the changing stress state. The results of the study revealed that microseismic events were successfully modeled within the Morrow B formation. Moment magnitudes of seismic events were within the same magnitudes for events in the reservoir, suggesting the suitability of the model. The results of the study showed that the computed moment magnitudes for seismic events were insignificant to warrant safety concerns. The study findings showed the usefulness of coupled hydromechanical models in predicting the subsurface stress changes associated with CO 2 injection. The knowledge gained from this study will serve as a guideline for industries planning to undertake underground CO 2 storage, and characterize the subsurface stress changes.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Simulation Framework for Regional Geologic CO 2 Storage Along Arches Province of Midwestern United States

This report presents final technical results for the project Simulation Framework for Regional Geologic CO 2 Storage Infrastructure along Arches Province of the Midwest United States . The Arches Simulation project was a three year effort designed to develop a simulation framework for regional geologic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage infrastructure along the Arches Province through development of a geologic model and advanced reservoir simulations of large-scale CO 2 storage. The project included five major technical tasks: (1) compilation of geologic, hydraulic and injection data on Mount Simon, (2) development of model framework and parameters, (3) preliminary variable density flow simulations, (4) multi-phase model runs of regional storage scenarios, and (5) implications for regional storage feasibility. The Arches Province is an informal region in northeastern Indiana, northern Kentucky, western Ohio, and southern Michigan where sedimentary rock formations form broad arch and platform structures. In the province, the Mount Simon sandstone is an appealing deep saline formation for CO 2 storage because of the intersection of reservoir thickness and permeability. Many CO 2 sources are located in proximity to the Arches Province, and the area is adjacent to coal fired power plants along the Ohio River Valley corridor. Geophysical well logs, rock samples, drilling logs, and geotechnical tests were evaluated for a 500,000 km2 study area centered on the Arches Province. Hydraulic parameters and historical operational information was also compiled from Mount Simon wastewater injection wells in the region. This information was integrated into a geocellular model that depicts the parameters and conditions in a numerical array. The geologic and hydraulic data were integrated into a three-dimensional grid of porosity and permeability, which are key parameters regarding fluid flow and pressure buildup due to CO 2 injection. Permeability data were corrected in locations where reservoir tests have been performed in Mount Simon injection wells. The geocellular model was used to develop a series of numerical simulations designed to support CO 2 storage applications in the Arches Province. Variable density fluid flow simulations were initially run to evaluate model sensitivity to input parameters. Two dimensional, multiple-phase simulations were completed to evaluate issues related to arranging injection fields in the study area. A basin-scale, multiple-phase model was developed to evaluate large scale injection effects across the region. Finally, local scale simulations were also completed with more detailed depiction of the Eau Claire formation to investigate to the potential for upward migration of CO 2 . Overall, the technical work on the project concluded that injection large-scale injection may be achieved with proper field design, operation, siting, and monitoring. Records from Mount Simon injection wells were compiled, documenting more than 20 billion gallons of injection into the Mount Simon formation in the Arches Province over the past 40 years, equivalent to approximately 60 million metric tons CO 2 . The multi-state team effort was useful in delineating the geographic variability in the Mount Simon reservoir properties. Simulations better defined potential well fields, well field arrangement, CO 2 pipeline distribution system, and operational parameters for large-scale injection in the Arches Province. Multiphase scoping level simulations suggest that injection fields with arrays of 9 to 50+ wells may be used to accommodate large injection volumes. Individual wells may need to be separated by 3 to 10 km. Injection fields may require spacing of 25 to 40 km to limit pressure and saturation front interference. Basin-scale multiple-phase simulations in STOMP reflect variability in the Mount Simon. While simulations suggest a total injection rate of 100 million metric tons per year (approximately to a 40% reduction of CO 2 emissions from large point sources across the Arches Province) may be feasible, some areas are more suitable due to favorable geology. Sustainable injection rates were higher in areas where there was higher thickness and reservoir permeability. Distribution of injection across well fields is an effective method to reduce pressure and CO 2 saturation front interference.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian seismic inversion based on rock-physics prior modeling for the joint estimation of acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies

We propose a Bayesian approach for seismic inversion to estimate acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies within the reservoir conditioned to post-stack seismic and well data. The link between elastic and petrophysical properties is given by a joint prior distribution for the logarithm of impedance and porosity, based on a rock-physics model. The well conditioning is performed through a background model obtained by well log interpolation. Two different approaches are presented: in the first approach, the prior is defined by a single Gaussian distribution, whereas in the second approach it is defined by a Gaussian mixture to represent the well data multimodal distribution and link the Gaussian components to different geological lithofacies. The forward model is based on a linearized convolutional model. For the single Gaussian case, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution, resulting in a fast algorithm to compute the solution of the inverse problem, i.e. the posterior distribution of acoustic impedance and porosity as well as the facies probability given the observed data. For the Gaussian mixture prior, it is not possible to obtain the distributions analytically, hence we propose a Gibbs algorithm to perform the posterior sampling and obtain several reservoir model realizations, allowing an uncertainty analysis of the estimated properties and lithofacies. Both methodologies are applied to a real seismic dataset with three wells to obtain 3D models of acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies. The methodologies are validated through a blind well test and compared to a standard Bayesian inversion approach. Using the probability of the reservoir lithofacies, we also compute a 3D isosurface probability model of the main oil reservoir in the studied field.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Accounting for uncertainty in complex alluvial aquifer modeling by Bayesian multi-model approach

Alluvial aquifers by nature are complex caused by varied depositional environments. Developing a reliable groundwater model to represent an alluvial aquifer is non-trivial. Also, relying on a single best calibrated model may not be sufficient because of an inadequate choice of model parameter values. To better understand groundwater dynamics and improve model prediction reliability, this study presents a Bayesian multi-model uncertainty quantification (BMMUQ) framework to account for model parameter uncertainty in complex alluvial groundwater modeling. The methodology was applied to the agriculturally intensive Mississippi River alluvial aquifer (MRAA), Northeast Louisiana. An aquifer architecture was first constructed using 7,259 well logs in the MRAA area which covers three fluvial deposits (alluvium, braided-stream terrace, and braided-stream terrace-loess). A 12-layer MODFLOW model was then developed to address the alluvial aquifer complexity and well calibrated through a genetic algorithm. This study quantified model parameter uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity and specific storage of sand facies. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm was adopted to derive posterior model weights and head variances of 50 alternative conceptual groundwater flow models, and thereby obtains BMA ensemble model predictions instead of only relying on the best calibrated conceptual model. Overall, results show that an estimated around 950 million m3 of groundwater storage loss occurs in 2015 with respect to the beginning of 2004, due to high groundwater demand for irrigation in the MRAA area. Explicitly quantifying model uncertainty can produce more reliable groundwater level predictions from BMA ensemble model. The presented groundwater modeling framework improves our understanding of the MRAA and provides a valuable tool to assist agricultural water management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗