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At least 163 records · Page 9

Stereo and Solar Cycle 24

The twin STEREO spacecrafi, launched in October 2006, are in heliocentric orbits near 4 AU with one spacecraft (Ahead) leading Earth in its orbit around the Sun and the other (Behind) trailing Earth. As viewed from the Sun, the STEREO spacecraft are continually separating from one another at about 45 degrees per year with Earth biseding the angle. At present, th@spaser=raft are a bit more than 45 degrees apart, thus they are able to each 'vie@ ground the limb's of the Sun by about 23 degrees, corresponding to about 1.75 days of solar rotation. Both spameraft contain an identical set of instruments including an extreme ultraviolet imager, two white light coronagraphs, tws all-sky imagers, a wide selection of energetic particle detectors, a magnetometer and a radio burst tracker. A snapshot of the real time data is continually broadcast to NOW-managed ground stations and this small stream of data is immediately sent to the STEREO Science Center and converted into useful space weather data within 5 minutes of ground receipt. The resulting images, particle, magnetometer and radio astronomy plots are available at ~ ~ j ~ g ~ ~ ~ i t , : gAs~ timqe~ co~n~ting ue~s ijnto~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ g ~ solar cycle 24, the separation angle becomes 90 degrees in early 2009 and 180 degrees in early 201 1 as the activity heads toward maximum. By the time of solar maximum, STEREO will provide for the first time a view of the entire Sun with the mronagraphs and e*reme ultraviolet instruments. This view wilt allow us to follow the evolution of active regions continuously and also detect new active regions long before they pose a space weather threat to Earth. The in situ instruments will be able to provide about 7 days advanced notice of co-rotating structures in the solar wind. During this same intewal near solar maximum, the wide-angle imagers on STEREB will both be ;able to view EarlCP-dirsted CMEs in their plane-oPsky. When combined with Eat-lhorbiting assets available at that time, it seems solar cycle 24 will mark a great increase in our ability to understand and predict space weather.

Kaise,r Michael L.↗

Synchronizing Heavily Encoded Data in Bad Weather

Deep space missions choose a data rate to ensure reliable communication under most conditions. Certain critical data can be more heavily encoded, to be decoded under particularly bad atmospheric conditions. It is shown that, in such a system, finding and synchronizing critical data will not be a problem.

Swanson, L.↗

A Variational Formalism for the Radiative Transfer Equation: Prelude to Model 3

The MODEL III variational data assimilation model is the third of four general assimilation models designed to blend weather data measured from space based platforms in the meteorological data mainstream in a way that maximizes the information content of the satellite data. Because there are many different observation locations and there are many instruments with different measurement error characteristics, it is also necessary to require that the blending be done to maximize the information content of the data and simultaneously to retain a dynamically consistent and reasonably accurate description of the state of the atmosphere. This is ideally a variational problem for which the data receive relative weights that are inversely proportional to measurement error and are adjusted to satisfy a set of dynamical equations that govern atmospheric processes. The advantage of MODEL III over the previous two models is that radiance, the atmospheric variable measured by satellite, becomes a dependent variable. In the previous versions, mean layer temperatures that had been retrieved from the radiances by some method, were included in the assimilation by substituting them in place of the rawinsonde temperatures. Now both rawinsonde temperatures and satellite radiances are included independently in the assimilation.

Achtemeier, Gary L.↗

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning↗

Identification of Abnormal System Noise Temperature Patterns in Deep Space Network Antennas Using Neural Network Trained Fuzzy Logic

This paper presents the development of a fuzzy logic function trained by an artificial neural network to classify the system noise temperature (SNT) of antennas in the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN). The SNT data were classified into normal, marginal, and abnormal classes. The irregular SNT pattern was further correlated with link margin and weather data. A reasonably good correlation is detected among high SNT, low link margin and the effect of bad weather; however we also saw some unexpected non-correlations which merit further study in the future.

pattern identification↗

Impact of Quikscat Data on Numerical Weather Prediction

Scatterometer observations of the ocean surface wind speed and direction improve the depiction and prediction of storms at sea. These data are especially valuable where observations are otherwise sparse ---mostly in the Southern Hemisphere and tropics, but also on occasion in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikScat satellite was launched in July 1999 and it represents a dramatic departure in design from the other scatterometer instruments launched during the past decade (ERS-1,2 and NSCAT). The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) was the first data assimilation center to assimilate QuikScat SeaWinds data and evaluate their impact on numerical weather prediction. Several data impact experiments have been performed, using systems from both the DAO (GEOS-3) and from NCEP (GDAS). In general, these experiments have shown a modest impact of SeaWinds data on numerical weather prediction, the magnitude of which appears to be comparable to the magnitude of the impact of AMI scatterometer data from the ERS satellites. Some of the main results from these experiments will be presented at the meeting.

Atlas, Robert↗

Communications Related to Weather Information Handling and Dissemination

This report summarizes the tasking contained in the Statement of Work and describes the results of the project. In addition, it addresses the principles, procedures, and methods of application that would be generally applicable to using the results of the project. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is involved in the Aviation Weather Information (AWIN) Program, which has a goal of reducing the aircraft accident rate, by a factor of five within 10 years and by a factor of 10 within 20 years. GRC's effort concentrates on the communications means needed to disseminate effective weather data. GRC's focus in on developing new technologies and techniques to support the digital communication of weather information between airborne and ground-based users.

Dhas, Chris↗

Lower Mekong Hydrological Decision Support system

The Lower Mekong Hydrological Decision Support system (LMHDSs) is a environmental data analysis tool developed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center with funding from the SERVIR Applied Sciences Team and technical support from SERVIR Science Coordination Office (SCO). The web application allows stakeholders and decision-makers to view and download the inputs and outputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model temporally and spatially. The front end is developed using JavaScript libraries like OpenLayers and Stock charts and the backend uses Django, a Python-based web framework. The web app provides several features, including visualizing map products, time-series plots, land-use/land-cover and associated soil information, and a data cart for downloading data. In addition, LMHDSs incorporates the NASAaccess software package, which provides seamless access to various climate and weather data products from NASA’s Earth observations portfolio. The application is region agnostic (any valid SWAT model can be used), modular (different components of the applications can be customized), and open (anyone can download and run it on their end). The web app is currently in use by the Mekong River Commission (MRC), a treaty-based regional intergovernmental organization that is made up of Mekong countries, as part of its hydrological decision support.

Hydrology↗

Needed weather information where it belongs; in the cockpit

The availability of inflight weather data to the cockpit is discussed. The need for real-time information systems to warn of hazardous weather conditions is emphasized. It is suggested that the Weather Service severe weather radar network be collocated with the FAA radar to provide information for real-time decision making.

Gatlin, H. G.↗

Nimbus 7 SMMR observations of the Bering Sea ice cover during March 1979

Sea ice concentration contour maps derived from the 0.81 cm wavelength channels on the Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) are compared with surface and aircraft data and with sea ice charts derived from the TIROS-N satellite imagery. The regional ice and weather data and the derivation of the TIROS ice charts are discussed, and the Nimbus 7 SMMR data and the physical basis of the algorithm used to retrieve ice concentrations are described. A detailed comparison of the SMMR imagery with all available surface, satellite, and meteorological data for two days in March, 1979 is made. The results show that the ice concentration maps derived from the 0.81 cm wavelength SMMR radiances provide accurate information on both the ice edge position and the location of low and high ice concentration regions within the Bering Sea pack ice.

Cavalieri, D. J.↗

Availability Estimation for Facilities in Extreme Geographical Locations

A value added analysis for the Reliability. Availability and Maintainability of McMurdo Ground Station was developed, which will be a useful tool for system managers in sparing, maintenance planning and determining vital performance metrics needed for readiness assessment of the upgrades to the McMurdo System. Output of this study can also be used as inputs and recommendations for the application of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) for the system. ReliaSoft's BlockSim. a commercial Reliability Analysis software package, has been used to model the availability of the system upgrade to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Near Earth Network (NEN) Ground Station at McMurdo Station in the Antarctica. The logistics challenges due to the closure of access to McMurdo Station during the Antarctic winter was modeled using a weighted composite of four Weibull distributions. one of the possible choices for statistical distributions throughout the software program and usually used to account for failure rates of components supplied by different manufacturers. The inaccessibility of the antenna site on a hill outside McMurdo Station throughout one year due to severe weather was modeled with a Weibull distribution for the repair crew availability. The Weibull distribution is based on an analysis of the available weather data for the antenna site for 2007 in combination with the rules for travel restrictions due to severe weather imposed by the administrating agency, the National Science Foundation (NSF). The simulations resulted in an upper bound for the system availability and allowed for identification of components that would improve availability based on a higher on-site spare count than initially planned.

Fischer, Gerd M.↗

The meteorological instrumentation of satellites

Requirements of meteorological satellite sensor systems and use of communications and manned spacecraft to obtain weather data - Integration of observations into numerical forecasting

WEATHER FORECASTING↗

Assessment of NASA's Physiographic and Meteorological Datasets as Input to HSPF and SWAT Hydrological Models

This paper documents the use of simulated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land use/land cover (MODIS-LULC), NASA-LIS generated precipitation and evapo-transpiration (ET), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) datasets (in conjunction with standard land use, topographical and meteorological datasets) as input to hydrological models routinely used by the watershed hydrology modeling community. The study is focused in coastal watersheds in the Mississippi Gulf Coast although one of the test cases focuses in an inland watershed located in northeastern State of Mississippi, USA. The decision support tools (DSTs) into which the NASA datasets were assimilated were the Soil Water & Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF). These DSTs are endorsed by several US government agencies (EPA, FEMA, USGS) for water resources management strategies. These models use physiographic and meteorological data extensively. Precipitation gages and USGS gage stations in the region were used to calibrate several HSPF and SWAT model applications. Land use and topographical datasets were swapped to assess model output sensitivities. NASA-LIS meteorological data were introduced in the calibrated model applications for simulation of watershed hydrology for a time period in which no weather data were available (1997-2006). The performance of the NASA datasets in the context of hydrological modeling was assessed through comparison of measured and model-simulated hydrographs. Overall, NASA datasets were as useful as standard land use, topographical , and meteorological datasets. Moreover, NASA datasets were used for performing analyses that the standard datasets could not made possible, e.g., introduction of land use dynamics into hydrological simulations

Alacron, Vladimir J.↗

Pulsed Lidar Performance/Technical Maturity Assessment

This report describes the results of investigations performed by the Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) under a task entitled 'Pulsed Lidar Performance/Technical Maturity Assessment' funded by the Crew Systems Branch of the Airborne Systems Competency at the NASA Langley Research Center. The investigations included two tasks, 1.1(a) and 1.1(b). The Tasks discussed in this report are in support of the NASA Virtual Airspace Modeling and Simulation (VAMS) program and are designed to evaluate a pulsed lidar that will be required for active wake vortex avoidance solutions. The Coherent Technologies, Inc. (CTI) WindTracer LIDAR is an eye-safe, 2-micron, coherent, pulsed Doppler lidar with wake tracking capability. The actual performance of the WindTracer system was to be quantified. In addition, the sensor performance has been assessed and modeled, and the models have been included in simulation efforts. The WindTracer LIDAR was purchased by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for use in near-term field data collection efforts as part of a joint NASA/FAA wake vortex research program. In the joint research program, a minimum common wake and weather data collection platform will be defined. NASA Langley will use the field data to support wake model development and operational concept investigation in support of the VAMS project, where the ultimate goal is to improve airport capacity and safety. Task 1.1(a), performed by NCAR in Boulder, Colorado to analyze the lidar system to determine its performance and capabilities based on results from simulated lidar data with analytic wake vortex models provided by NASA, which were then compared to the vendor's claims for the operational specifications of the lidar. Task 1.1(a) is described in Section 3, including the vortex model, lidar parameters and simulations, and results for both detection and tracking of wake vortices generated by Boeing 737s and 747s. Task 1.1(b) was performed by GTRI in Atlanta, Georgia and is described in Section 4. Task 1.1(b) includes a description of the St. Louis Airport (STL) field test being conducted by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, and it also addresses the development of a test plan to validate simulation studies conducted as part of Task 1.1(a). Section 4.2 provides a description of the Volpe STL field tests, and Section 4.3 describes 3 possible ways to validate the WindTracer lidar simulations performed in Task 1.1(a).

Gimmestad, Gary G.↗

Lateral spread of sonic boom measurements from US Air Force boomfile flight tests

A series of sonic boom flight tests were conducted by the US Air Force at Edwards AFB in 1987 with current supersonic DOD aircraft. These tests involved 43 flights by various aircraft at different Mach number and altitude combinations. The measured peak overpressures to predicted values as a function of lateral distance are compared. Some of the flights are combined into five groups because of the varying profiles and the limited number of sonic booms obtained during this study. The peak overpressures and the lateral distances are normalized with respect to the Carlson method predicted centerline overpressures and lateral cutoff distances, respectively, to facilitate comparisons between sonic boom data from similar flight profiles. It is demonstrated that the data agrees with sonic boom theory and previous studies and adds to the existing sonic boom database by including sonic boom signatures, tracking, and weather data in a digital format.

Downing, J. Micah↗

Application of Markov chain theory to ASTP natural environment launch criteria at Kennedy Space Center

To aid the planning of the Apollo Soyuz Test Program (ASTP), certain natural environment statistical relationships are presented, based on Markov theory and empirical counts. The practical results are in terms of conditional probability of favorable and unfavorable launch conditions at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). They are based upon 15 years of recorded weather data which are analyzed under a set of natural environmental launch constraints. Three specific forecasting problems were treated: (1) the length of record of past weather which is useful to a prediction; (2) the effect of persistence in runs of favorable and unfavorable conditions; and (3) the forecasting of future weather in probabilistic terms.

Graves, M. E.↗

Supporting Space Weather with the Geospace Dynamics Constellation

The Geospace Dynamics Constellation (GDC) mission, planned to launch at the end of the decade, is a six-satellite constellation that will fly through the ionosphere and thermosphere at around 400 km. While GDC is a science mission, its comprehensive instrumentation will not only contribute to our understanding of space weather phenomena in the ionosphere-thermosphere system, but will also provide valuable, space weather-relevant data. Data from GDC will be made available at low latency via real-time space weather data stream. We are working with operational partners to identify space weather data products and coordinate reception of the space weather beacon data. Alongside preparations for real-time GDC data streams, we are working to identify current model capabilities and needs, to ensure that space weather models that can make use of GDC measurements are moving along the Research-toOperations pipeline. Before GDC launch, Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) carried out with synthetic GDC data can be used to demonstrate the capabilities of models and to predict the impact of GDC data. Following launch, Observing System Experiments (OSEs) will demonstrate the impact of GDC space weather data. In preparation for GDC, the ITM space weather community should establish baseline metrics for space weather parameters of scientific and operational interest. These metrics, tracked over time before and after the launch of GDC, will allow us to track advancements in forecasting, nowcasting, and hindcasting of the ITM system and to trace the impact of scientific progress from space weather research into operations. By demonstrating the impact of real-time GDC data, specific data needs can be identified and prioritized for long term investment on future observing systems.

Katherine Garcia-Sage↗

Airline flight planning - The weather connection

The history of airline flight planning is briefly reviewed. Over half a century ago, when scheduled airline services began, weather data were almost nonexistent. By the early 1950's a reliable synoptic network provided upper air reports. The next 15 years saw a rapid growth in commercial aviation, and airlines introduced computer techniques to flight planning. The 1970's saw the development of weather satellites. The current state of flight planning activities is analyzed. It is found that accurate flight planning will require meteorological information on a finer scale than can be provided by a synoptic forecast. Opportunities for a new approach are examined, giving attention to the available options, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, limited area fine mesh models, man-computer interactive display systems, the use of interactive techniques with the present upper air data base, and the implementation of interactive techniques.

Steinberg, R.↗