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NASA NTRS1998

Effects of HF Treatments on Tensile Strength of Hi-Nicalon Fibers

Tensile strengths of as-received Hi-Nicalon fibers and those having a dual BN/SiC surface coating, deposited by chemical vapor deposition, have been measured at room temperature. These fibers were also treated with HF for 24 h followed by tensile strength measurements. Strengths of uncoated and BN/SiC coated Hi-Nicalon fibers extracted from celsian matrix composites, by dissolving away the matrix in HF for 24 h, were also determined. The average tensile strength of uncoated Hi-Nicalon was 3.19 +/- 0.73 GPa with a Weibull modulus of 5.41. The Hi-Nicalon/BN/SiC fibers showed an average strength of 3.04 q 0.53 GPa and Weibull modulus of 6.66. After HF treatments, the average strengths of the uncoated and BN/SiC coated Hi-Nicalon fibers were 2.69 +/- 0.67 GPa and 2.80 +/- 0.53 GPa and the Weibull moduli were 4.93 and 5.96, respectively. The BN/SiC coated fibers extracted from the celsian matrix composite exhibited a strength of 2.38 +/- 0.40 GPa and a Weibull modulus of 7.15. The strength of the uncoated Hi-Nicalon fibers in the composite was so severely degraded that they disintegrated into small fragments during extraction with HF. The uncoated fibers probably undergo mechanical surface damage during hot pressing of the composites. Also, the BN layer on the coated fibers acts as a compliant layer which protects the fibers from mechanical damage during composite processing. The elemental composition and thickness of the fiber coatings were deten-nined using scanning Auger analysis. Microstructural analyses of the fibers and the coatings were done by scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. Strengths of fibers calculated using average and measured fiber diameters were in good agreement. Thus, the strength of fibers can be evaluated using an average fiber diameter instead of the measured diameter of each filament.

Bansal, Narottam P.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Analysis of stratocumulus cloud fields using LANDSAT imagery: Size distributions and spatial separations

Stratocumulus cloud fields in the FIRE IFO region are analyzed using LANDSAT Thematic Mapper imagery. Structural properties such as cloud cell size distribution, cell horizontal aspect ratio, fractional coverage and fractal dimension are determined. It is found that stratocumulus cloud number densities are represented by a power law. Cell horizontal aspect ratio has a tendency to increase at large cell sizes, and cells are bi-fractal in nature. Using LANDSAT Multispectral Scanner imagery for twelve selected stratocumulus scenes acquired during previous years, similar structural characteristics are obtained. Cloud field spatial organization also is analyzed. Nearest-neighbor spacings are fit with a number of functions, with Weibull and Gamma distributions providing the best fits. Poisson tests show that the spatial separations are not random. Second order statistics are used to examine clustering.

Welch, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Scale effects on the transverse tensile strength of graphite epoxy composites

The influence of material volume on the transverse tensile strength of AS4/3501-6 graphite epoxy composites was investigated. Tensile tests of 90 degree laminates with 3 different widths and 5 different thicknesses were conducted. A finite element analysis was performed to determine the influence of the grip on the stress distribution in the coupons and explain the tendency for the distribution of failure locations to be skewed toward the grip. Specimens were instrumented with strain gages and extensometers to insure good alignment and to measure failure strains. Data indicated that matrix dominated strength properties varied with the volume of material that was stressed, with the strength decreasing as volume increased. Transverse strength data were used in a volumetric scaling law based on Weibull statistics to predict the strength of 90 degree laminates loaded in three point bending. Comparisons were also made between transverse strength measurements and out-of-plane interlaminar tensile strength measurements from curved beam bending tests. The significance of observed scale effects on the use of tests for material screening, quality assurance, and design allowables is discussed.

Obrien, T. Kevin↗

NASA NTRS1991

Reliability analysis of continuous fiber composite laminates

This paper describes two methods, the maximum distortion energy (MDE) and the principle of independent action (PIA), developed for the analysis of the reliability of a single continuous composite lamina. It is shown that, for the typical laminated plate structure, the individual lamina reliabilities can be combined in order to produce the upper and the lower bounds of reliability for the laminate, similar in nature to the bounds on properties produced from variational elastic methods. These limits were derived for both the interactive and the model failure considerations. Analytical expressions were also derived for the sensitivity of the reliability limits with respect to changes in the Weibull parameters and in loading conditions.

Thomas, David J.↗

NASA NTRS1967

The analysis of Gemini 7 EEG data by three different computer oriented methods

The problem in assessment of electroencephalograms has been the subject element in visual evaluations of such records as well as the need for extensive training (2 or 3 years) before suitable candidate is capable to perform this task. There have been variety of computer type analyses of EEG during the past ten years or more, and we are still searching for a reliable, inexpensive, online data processing procedure for this task. We are aware our Soviet colleagues are routinely using computer assessment of EEGs, using relatively inexpensive hardware. In our report we endeavor to show how four different assessment procedures (visual assessment, zero crossing technique, smoothing and peak counting technique, and Weibull Statistic) may be utilized, and indicate the advantages and disadvantages peculiar to each. We wish to point out that in the Gemini 7 EEG analog records supplied to the Henry Ford Hospital, Channel II (mid-line central to mid-line occipital electrodes) could not be assessed reliably after approximately 26 hours of flight. Channel I (left central to left occipital electrodes) provided the more assessable EEG up to approximately 54 hours of flight. These channels were compared during the first 26 hours of flight, and no significant difference was found by our various assessment procedures. We, therefore, have limited this report to the findings on the analyses of Channel I during its approximate 54 hours of flight.

Proctor, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS1997

A Statistical Simulation Approach to Safe Life Fatigue Analysis of Redundant Metallic Components

This paper introduces a dual active load path fail-safe fatigue design concept analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. The concept utilizes the inherent fatigue life differences between selected pairs of components for an active dual path system, enhanced by a stress level bias in one component. The design is applied to a baseline design; a safe life fatigue problem studied in an American Helicopter Society (AHS) round robin. The dual active path design is compared with a two-element standby fail-safe system and the baseline design for life at specified reliability levels and weight. The sensitivity of life estimates for both the baseline and fail-safe designs was examined by considering normal and Weibull distribution laws and coefficient of variation levels. Results showed that the biased dual path system lifetimes, for both the first element failure and residual life, were much greater than for standby systems. The sensitivity of the residual life-weight relationship was not excessive at reliability levels up to R = 0.9999 and the weight penalty was small. The sensitivity of life estimates increases dramatically at higher reliability levels.

Matthews, William T.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Development of a funding, cost, and spending model for satellite projects

The need for a predictive budget/funging model is obvious. The current models used by the Resource Analysis Office (RAO) are used to predict the total costs of satellite projects. An effort to extend the modeling capabilities from total budget analysis to total budget and budget outlays over time analysis was conducted. A statistical based and data driven methodology was used to derive and develop the model. Th budget data for the last 18 GSFC-sponsored satellite projects were analyzed and used to build a funding model which would describe the historical spending patterns. This raw data consisted of dollars spent in that specific year and their 1989 dollar equivalent. This data was converted to the standard format used by the RAO group and placed in a database. A simple statistical analysis was performed to calculate the gross statistics associated with project length and project cost ant the conditional statistics on project length and project cost. The modeling approach used is derived form the theory of embedded statistics which states that properly analyzed data will produce the underlying generating function. The process of funding large scale projects over extended periods of time is described by Life Cycle Cost Models (LCCM). The data was analyzed to find a model in the generic form of a LCCM. The model developed is based on a Weibull function whose parameters are found by both nonlinear optimization and nonlinear regression. In order to use this model it is necessary to transform the problem from a dollar/time space to a percentage of total budget/time space. This transformation is equivalent to moving to a probability space. By using the basic rules of probability, the validity of both the optimization and the regression steps are insured. This statistically significant model is then integrated and inverted. The resulting output represents a project schedule which relates the amount of money spent to the percentage of project completion.

Johnson, Jesse P.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Grain boundary oxidation and an analysis of the effects of oxidation on fatigue crack nucleation life

The effects of preoxidation on subsequent fatigue life were studied. Surface oxidation and grain boundary oxidation of a nickel-base superalloy (TAZ-8A) were studied at 600 to 1000 C for 10 to 1000 hours in air. Surface oxides were identified and the kinetics of surface oxidation was discussed. Grain boundary oxide penetration and morphology were studied. Pancake type grain boundary oxide penetrates deeper and its size is larger, therefore, it is more detrimental to fatigue life than cone-type grain boundary oxide. Oxide penetration depth, a (sub m), is related to oxidation temperature, T, and exposure time, t, by an empirical relation of the Arrhenius type. Effects of T and t on statistical variation of a (sub m) were analyzed according to the Weibull distribution function. Once the oxide is cracked, it serves as a fatigue crack nucleus. Statistical variation of the remaining fatigue life, after the formation of an oxide crack of a critical length, is related directly to the statistical variation of grain boundary oxide penetration depth.

Oshida, Y.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure

A probabilistic finite element program is used to perform probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure. The program used in this study is NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structure Under Stress), under development at Southwest Research Institute. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the radial stress of a thick-walled cylinder under internal pressure is computed and compared with the analytical solution. In addition, sensitivity factors showing the relative importance of the input random variables are calculated. Significant plasticity is present in this problem and has a pronounced effect on the probabilistic results. The random input variables are the material yield stress and internal pressure with Weibull and normal distributions, respectively. The results verify the ability of NESSUS to compute the CDF and sensitivity factors of a materially nonlinear structure. In addition, the ability of the Advanced Mean Value (AMV) procedure to assess the probabilistic behavior of structures which exhibit a highly nonlinear response is shown. Thus, the AMV procedure can be applied with confidence to other structures which exhibit nonlinear behavior.

Millwater, H. R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Scaled CMOS Technology Reliability Users Guide

The desire to assess the reliability of emerging scaled microelectronics technologies through faster reliability trials and more accurate acceleration models is the precursor for further research and experimentation in this relevant field. The effect of semiconductor scaling on microelectronics product reliability is an important aspect to the high reliability application user. From the perspective of a customer or user, who in many cases must deal with very limited, if any, manufacturer's reliability data to assess the product for a highly-reliable application, product-level testing is critical in the characterization and reliability assessment of advanced nanometer semiconductor scaling effects on microelectronics reliability. A methodology on how to accomplish this and techniques for deriving the expected product-level reliability on commercial memory products are provided.Competing mechanism theory and the multiple failure mechanism model are applied to the experimental results of scaled SDRAM products. Accelerated stress testing at multiple conditions is applied at the product level of several scaled memory products to assess the performance degradation and product reliability. Acceleration models are derived for each case. For several scaled SDRAM products, retention time degradation is studied and two distinct soft error populations are observed with each technology generation: early breakdown, characterized by randomly distributed weak bits with Weibull slope (beta)=1, and a main population breakdown with an increasing failure rate. Retention time soft error rates are calculated and a multiple failure mechanism acceleration model with parameters is derived for each technology. Defect densities are calculated and reflect a decreasing trend in the percentage of random defective bits for each successive product generation. A normalized soft error failure rate of the memory data retention time in FIT/Gb and FIT/cm2 for several scaled SDRAM generations is presented revealing a power relationship. General models describing the soft error rates across scaled product generations are presented. The analysis methodology may be applied to other scaled microelectronic products and their key parameters.

Microelectronics Reliability↗

NASA NTRS1986

Grain boundary oxidation and an analysis of the effects of pre-oxidation on subsequent fatigue life

Oshida, Y.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Sometimes lifetime testing is performed on an actual COPV in service in an effort to validate the reliability model that is the basis for certifying the continued flight worthiness of its sisters. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49(registered TradeMark)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the data base and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one nine , that is, reducing the probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several would be necessary.

Phoenix, S. Leigh↗

NASA NTRS2015

Wear-Out Sensitivity Analysis Project Abstract

During the course of the Summer 2015 internship session, I worked in the Reliability and Maintainability group of the ISS Safety and Mission Assurance department. My project was a statistical analysis of how sensitive ORU's (Orbital Replacement Units) are to a reliability parameter called the wear-out characteristic. The intended goal of this was to determine a worst case scenario of how many spares would be needed if multiple systems started exhibiting wear-out characteristics simultaneously. The goal was also to determine which parts would be most likely to do so. In order to do this, my duties were to take historical data of operational times and failure times of these ORU's and use them to build predictive models of failure using probability distribution functions, mainly the Weibull distribution. Then, I ran Monte Carlo Simulations to see how an entire population of these components would perform. From here, my final duty was to vary the wear-out characteristic from the intrinsic value, to extremely high wear-out values and determine how much the probability of sufficiency of the population would shift. This was done for around 30 different ORU populations on board the ISS.

Harris, Adam↗

NASA NTRS1977

Ceramics for the advanced automotive gas turbine engine: A look at a single shaft design

The results of a preliminary analysis of a single shaft regenerative design with a single stage radial turbine are presented to show the fuel economy that can be achieved at high turbine inlet temperatures, with this particular advanced design, if the turbine tip speed and regenerator inlet temperature are not limited. The engine size was 100 hp for application to a 3500 lb auto. The fuel economy was analyzed by coupling the engine to the auto through a continuously variable speed-ratio transmission and operating the system at constant turbine inlet temperature over the Composite Driving Cycle. The fuel was gasoline and the analysis was for a 85 F day. With a turbine inlet temperature of 2500 F the fuel economy was 26.2 mpg, an improvement of 18 percent over that of 22.3 mpg with a turbine inlet temperature of 1900 F. The turbine tip speed needed for best economy with the 2500 F engine was 2530 ft/sec. The regenerator temperature was approximately 2200 F at idle. Disk stresses were estimated for one single stage radial turbine and two two-stage radial-axial turbines and compared with maximum allowable stress curves estimated for a current ceramic material. Results show a need for higher Weibull Modulus, higher strength ceramics.

Nosek, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

An Experimental Investigation of Transverse Tension Fatigue Characterization of IM6/3501-6 Composite Materials Using a Three-Point Bend Test

As composites are introduced into more complex structures with out-of-plane loadings, a better understanding is needed of the out-of-plane, matrix-dominated failure mechanisms. This work investigates the transverse tension fatigue characteristics of IM6/3501 composite materials. To test the 90 degree laminae, a three-point bend test was chosen, potentially minimizing handling and gripping issues associated with tension tests. A finite element analysis was performed of a particular specimen configuration to investigate the influence of specimen size on the stress distribution for a three-point bend test. Static testing of 50 specimens of 9 different sized configurations produced a mean transverse tensile strength of 61.3 Mpa (8.0 ksi). The smallest configuration (10.2 mm wide, Span-to-thickness ratio of 3) consistently exhibited transverse tensile failures. A volume scale effect was difficult to discern due to the large scatter of the data. Static testing of 10 different specimens taken from a second panel produced a mean transverse tensile strength of 82.7 Mpa (12.0 ksi). Weibull parameterization of the data was possible, but due to variability in raw material and/or manufacturing, more replicates are needed for greater confidence. Three-point flex fatigue testing of the smallest configuration was performed on 59 specimens at various levels of the mean static transverse tensile strength using an R ratio of 0.1 and a frequency of 20 Hz. A great deal of scatter was seen in the data. The majority of specimens failed near the center loading roller. To determine whether the scatter in the fatigue data is due to variability in raw material and/or the manufacturing process, additional testing should be performed on panels manufactured from different sources.

Peck, Ann W.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Resistance of virus to extinction on bottleneck passages: study of a decaying and fluctuating pattern of fitness loss

RNA viruses display high mutation rates and their populations replicate as dynamic and complex mutant distributions, termed viral quasispecies. Repeated genetic bottlenecks, which experimentally are carried out through serial plaque-to-plaque transfers of the virus, lead to fitness decrease (measured here as diminished capacity to produce infectious progeny). Here we report an analysis of fitness evolution of several low fitness foot-and-mouth disease virus clones subjected to 50 plaque-to-plaque transfers. Unexpectedly, fitness decrease, rather than being continuous and monotonic, displayed a fluctuating pattern, which was influenced by both the virus and the state of the host cell as shown by effects of recent cell passage history. The amplitude of the fluctuations increased as fitness decreased, resulting in a remarkable resistance of virus to extinction. Whereas the frequency distribution of fitness in control (independent) experiments follows a log-normal distribution, the probability of fitness values in the evolving bottlenecked populations fitted a Weibull distribution. We suggest that multiple functions of viral genomic RNA and its encoded proteins, subjected to high mutational pressure, interact with cellular components to produce this nontrivial, fluctuating pattern.

Serial Passage↗

NASA NTRS2018

Simulation of Stochastic Mud-Crack Damage Formation in an Environmental Barrier Coating

The integrated Finite Element Analysis–Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program was used to simulate the formation of mudflat-cracks from thermomechanical loading on a multi-layered Environmental Barrier Coating (EBC) system deposited on a ceramic substrate. FEAMAC/CARES combines MAC/GMC multiscale composite micromechanics code with CARES/Life probabilistic multiaxial failure criteria code and Abaqusfinite element analysis. In this work, step function elastic modulus reduction of randomly damaged finite elements was used to represent discrete cracking events. The use of many small-sized low-aspect-ratio finite elements enabled the depiction of crack boundaries and formation of mudflat patterned damage. Demonstrated examples include finite element models of button–sized disk–shaped 3-D specimen, and a 2-D model of through-the-thickness cross-section. All models were subjected to a progressive cool down from 1300oC to room temperature. Mudflat crack damage in the coating system resulted from the buildup of residual tensile stresses between the individual material constituents from thermal expansion mismatch. A 2-parameter Weibull distribution characterized the coating layer stochastic strength response and the effect of the Weibull modulus on the formation of damage was studied here.

residual tensile stress↗

NASA NTRS1977

Flight inspection data and crack initiation times

Lockheed C-130 service-flight inspection data is reduced by means of fracture mechanics and statistical analysis into a form from which the probability of time to crack initiation and the distribution of initial flaw sizes for various locations on the aircraft can be determined. Crack sizes are normalized by extrapolating a growing crack backwards from its first recorded size to .03 inches (crack initiation size) yielding the time to crack initiation. In a similar fashion, the crack is grown backwards to a time equal to zero to yield an initial flaw size. In order to perform the discussed computations, crack growth constants were computed for each individual location and were analyzed statistically. Statistical distributions were fitted to times to crack initiation and to initial flaw sizes in order to describe their expected behavior. Weibull and Johnson distributions have been found to fit the data reasonably well but for a better fit convolution integrals of Poisson load distributions and Weibull strength distributions are needed.

Johnson, W. S.↗