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NASA NTRS2011

TRMM-Based Lightning Climatology

Gridded climatologies of total lightning flash rates seen by the spaceborne Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) have been updated. OTD collected data from May 1995 to March 2000. LIS data (equatorward of about 38 deg) has been added for 1998-2010. Flash counts from each instrument are scaled by the best available estimates of detection efficiency. The long LIS record makes the merged climatology most robust in the tropics and subtropics, while the high latitude data is entirely from OTD. The mean global flash rate from the merged climatology is 46 flashes per second. The peak annual flash rate at 0.5 deg scale is 160 fl/square km/yr in eastern Congo. The peak monthly average flash rate at 2.5 scale is 18 fl/square km/mo, from early April to early May in the Brahmaputra Valley of far eastern India. Lightning decreases in this region during the monsoon season, but increases further north and west. A monthly average peak from early August to early September in northern Pakistan also exceeds any monthly averages from Africa, despite central Africa having the greatest yearly average. Most continental regions away from the equator have an annual cycle with lightning flash rates peaking in late spring or summer. The main exceptions are India and southeast Asia, with springtime peaks in April and May. For landmasses near the equator, flash rates peak near the equinoxes. For many oceanic regions, the peak flash rates occur in autumn. This is particularly noticeable for the Mediterranean and North Atlantic. Landmasses have a strong diurnal cycle of lightning, with flash rates generally peaking between 3-5 pm local solar time. The central United States flash rates peak later, in late evening or early night. Flash rates peak after midnight in northern Argentina. These regions are known for large, intense, long-lived mesoscale convective systems.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Southern Hemisphere Lidar Measurements of the Aerosol Clouds from Mt. Pinatubo and Mt. Hudson

On 19 Jul., 1991, during tests to determine the ability of the newly-modified CSIRO Ns:YAG lidar to measure signals from the stratosphere before the arrival of dust from the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, a strongly scattering layer was detected at an altitude of 2 km. That evening, the spectacular sunset and twilight were typical of volcanically disturbed conditions. Lidar measurements at 532 nm were made between 1400 and 1500 EST (0400-0500 UT) on 19 Jul. through broken cloud. Approximately 3800 laser firings were averaged in 256 shot blocks. These and subsequent data have been analyzed to produce profiles of aerosol volume backscatter function and scattering ratio. Clouds again prevented a clear view of the twilights on the next two nights, although there was some evidence for an enhanced glow. The evidence suggested that the aerosol layer had disappeared. An explanation for this disappearance and the earlier than expected arrival of the layer over Melbourne was required. Nimbus 7 TOMS data for 23 Jun. showed that the SO2 from the eruption had extended at least 11000 km to the west and that the southern boundary of the cloud had reached 15 degrees S just 8 days after the climactic eruption. It can be assumed that this cloud also contained dust and sulphuric acid aerosol. It was proposed that a section had then been broken away from the main cloud and carried south by a large scale eddy between the low latitude easterlies and the strong mid-latitude westerlies which finally carried the aerosol cloud over southern Australia. Accompanying 30 mb wind data showed a counter clockwise circulation, responsible for the transport, located in the South Atlantic Ocean.

Young, Stuart A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

SAMPEX Observations of the South Atlantic Anomaly Secular Drift During Solar Cycles 22-24

It is observed that charged particle intensities are very high near the South Atlantic anomaly (SAA) and are a potential hazard to spacecraft passing through the region. In this study, we examine the secular drift of the SAA location at approximately 400-600 kilometers altitude over nearly two solar cycles, using particle count rates to trace the geomagnetic field lines in the region near the SAA. We use data from the Low-Energy Ion Composition Analyzer sensor on board the SAMPEX (Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer) spacecraft to measure both the longitudinal and latitudinal drifts of the SAA. We find that the longitudinal drift rate is 0.20 plus or minus 0.04 degrees west per year and that the latitudinal drift rate is 0.11 plus or minus 0.01 degrees south per year. These measurements are compared with the IGRF12 (International Geomagnetic Reference Field) model calculations based on an analysis of magnetic field minima in the region of the SAA. Our results, which are in good agreement with model results and prior measurements when declining spacecraft altitude is taken into account, have important space weather implications.

Jones, A. D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Eddy and wave dynamics in the South Atlantic as diagnosed from Geosat altimeter data

The characteristics of the sea surface height variability in the South Atlantic are investigated on the basis of almost 3 yr of Geosat data. The nature of the sea surface height field is shown to be nonstationary, heterogeneous, and anisotropic. The wavenumber spectral characteristics of the sea surface height field, such as spectral slopes, shape, breaks in spectral slopes, and energy density values, vary with latitude and longitude within the basin. The spectral slopes exhibit a spectral dependence approaching k exp -5 in the high-energy areas and k exp -3 in the low-energy areas. Along-track characteristic wavelengths are found to decrease from north to south and from west to east. The energy exhibits maximum values in the highly energetic eddy-shedding regions of the Malvinas-Brazil confluence and the Agulhas leakage region.

Forbes, Cristina↗
NASA NTRS2016

Oceanic Transport of Surface Meltwater from the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet

The Greenland ice sheet has undergone accelerating mass losses during recent decades. Freshwater runoff from ice melt can influence fjord circulation and dynamic1 and the delivery of bioavailable micronutrients to the ocean. It can also have climate implications, because stratification in the adjacent Labrador Sea may influence deep convection and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Yet, the fate of the meltwater in the ocean remains unclear. Here, we use a high-resolution ocean model to show that only 1-15% of the surface meltwater runoff originating from southwest Greenland is transported westwards. In contrast, up to 50-60% of the meltwater runoff originating from southeast Greenland is transported westwards into the northern Labrador Sea, leading to significant salinity and stratification anomalies far from the coast. Doubling meltwater runoff, as predicted in future climate scenarios, results in a more-than-double increase in anomalies offshore that persists further into the winter. Interannual variability in offshore export of meltwater is tightly related to variability in wind forcing. The new insight that meltwaters originating from the west and east coasts have different fates indicates that future changes in mass loss rates and surface runoff will probably impact the ocean differently, depending on their Greenland origins.

Physical oceanography↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Strong Atmospheric River Responsible for the 2019 Record Floods in the Middle East

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) cause some of the weather-related disasters around the world. While many studies have shown the contribution of ARs to precipitation in the coastal regions such as western Europe and the U.S. West Coast, little is known about their mechanisms and impacts on flooding in the Middle East. This study shows that an AR was responsible for the record floods during March 2019 across the Middle East. Iran in particular was hit hardest with the floods that left a death toll of at least 76 and an early estimate of $2.5 billion (U.S. dollars) damage to its infrastructures. The heavy precipitation produced by this AR made the 2018/19 rainy season the wettest in the past four decades. By contrast, the prior year (2017/18) was the driest over the same period. This is a compelling example of rapid dry-to-wet transitions that may enhance the chance of landslides and impose challenges to water resources management. The AR originated in the Atlantic Ocean and propagated across North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula before its final landfall over the Zagros Mountains. On its nearly 9000 km journey, the AR received additional moisture from the Mediterranean, Red, and Arabian Seas, and the Persian Gulf. Moisture transport by this AR during 24-25 March 2019 is estimated at more than 150times the aggregated discharge of the four major rivers in the region, that is, the Tigris, Euphrates, Karun, and Karkheh. Anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in all surrounding basins and coincidence of a midlatitude system and a subtropical jet provided the necessary ingredients for formation of this strong AR. This work underlines the fact that the impacts of rain-producing ARs are not limited to the coastal regions. Such ARs can travel very long distances away from the oceans and affect remote arid and semi-arid regions like the Middle East. This study examined an individual AR, though one associated with record floods. However, it attempts to draw attention to the need for more AR-related research over the Middle East.

Atmospheric Rivers↗
NASA NTRS2021

On the Cycling of 231 Pa and 230 Th in Benthic Nepheloid Layers

The naturally-occurring radionuclides protactinium-231 ( 231 Pa) and thorium-230 ( 230 Th) are produced at approximately uniform rates in the ocean and thought to be removed from the water column through a reversible exchange with settling particles. Recent measurements along the U.S. GEOTRACES North Atlantic transect (GA03) revealed two features which are at odds with current understanding about 231 Pa and 230 Th cycling in the ocean: (i) a sharp decrease in dissolved 231 Pa ( 231 Pa d ) and 230 Th ( 230 Th d ) activities with depth below 2000-4000 m and (ii) very high particulate 231 Pa ( 231 Pa p ) and 230 Th ( 230 Th p ) activities near the bottom, at a number of stations between the New England continental shelf and Bermuda. Concomitant measurements of light attenuation from beam transmissometry showed that both features occur in benthic nepheloid layers (BNLs), which suggests that these features may stem, at least partly, from the presence of resuspended sediment in the deep water column. Here we explore the behaviour of 231 Pa and 230 Th in BNLs by using (i) radionuclide, optical, and hydrographic data from the western segment of GA03 (west of Bermuda) and (ii) a simplified model of particle and radionuclide cycling that includes a lateral particle source. First, the BNLs observed at GA03 stations are characterized from measurements of the beam attenuation coefficient converted to particle concentrations. At all stations, particle concentrations below the clear water minimum were the highest in the bottom mixed layer, whose thickness ranged from 95 to 320 m, and decreased generally with height above the bottom. The thickness of strong BNLs varied from 482 to 1358 m and the vertical integral of particle concentration in excess to that at the clear water minimum varied from 1 x 10 4 to 2 x 10 6 mg m −2 , among different stations. Second, the particle-radionuclide model is fitted to data from stations GT11-04 (New England continental rise) and GT11-08 (Hatteras abyssal plain), where samples for radionuclide analyses were collected in the BNL. The model can reproduce simultaneously the increase of particle concentration with depth, the low 231 Pa d and 230 Th d in the BNLs, and the high 231 Pa p and 230 Th p near the bottom. According to the model, at heights less than about 300 m above the seafloor, the dissolved phase was set primarily by a balance between adsorption and desorption, with vertical turbulent mixing playing a secondary role, whilst the particulate phase behaved largely as a non-reactive constituent supplied laterally and transported vertically by particle settling and turbulent mixing. Sensitivity tests with the model suggest that lateral particle sources near continental slopes and similar reliefs can produce significant biases both in the 230 Th normalization method and in the interpretation of sediment 231 Pa/ 230 Th records. Our findings yield insights into the influence of sediment resuspension and transport on 231 Pa and 230 Th in the deep ocean and highlight the need for considering these processes in paleoceanographic applications.

Nepheloid layer↗
NASA NTRS1995

Remote sensing of smoke, clouds, and radiation using AVIRIS during SCAR experiments

During the past two years, researchers from several institutes joined together to take part in two SCAR experiments. The SCAR-A (Sulfates, Clouds And Radiation - Atlantic) took place in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States in July, 1993. remote sensing data were acquired with the Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS), the MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS), and a RC-10 mapping camera from an ER-2 aircraft at 20 km. In situ measurements of aerosol and cloud microphysical properties were made with a variety of instruments equipped on the University of Washington's C-131A research aircraft. Ground based measurements of aerosol optical depths and particle size distributions were made using a network of sunphotometers. The main purpose of SCAR-A experiment was to study the optical, physical and chemical properties of sulfate aerosols and their interaction with clouds and radiation. Sulfate particles are believed to affect the energy balance of the earth by directly reflecting solar radiation back to space and by increasing the cloud albedo. The SCAR-C (Smoke, Clouds And Radiation - California) took place on the west coast areas during September - October of 1994. Sets of aircraft and ground-based instruments, similar to those used during SCAR-A, were used during SCAR-C. Remote sensing of fires and smoke from AVIRIS and MAS imagers on the ER-2 aircraft was combined with a complete in situ characterization of the aerosol and trace gases from the C-131A aircraft of the University of Washington and the Cesna aircraft from the U.S. Forest Service. The comprehensive data base acquired during SCAR-A and SCAR-C will contribute to a better understanding of the role of clouds and aerosols in global change studies. The data will also be used to develop satellite remote sensing algorithms from MODIS on the Earth Observing System.

Gao, Bo-Cai↗
NASA NTRS1996

Absorbed dose measurements on LDEF and comparisons with predictions

The radiation environment on LDEF was monitored by cumulative absorbed dose measurements made with TLDs at different locations and shielding depths. The TLDs were included in four experiments: A0015(a) Biostack, P0004 Seeds in Space and P0006 Linear Energy Transfer Spectrum Measurements at the trailing edge (west side) of the satellite; M0004 Fiber Optics Data Link at the leading edge (east side); and A0015(b) Biostack at the Earth side. The shielding depths varied between 0.48 and 15.4 g/cm2, Al equivalent. Both the directional dependence of trapped protons incident on the satellite and the shielding thickness were reflected in absorbed dose values. The trapped proton anisotropy was measured by TLDs at the east and west sides of LDEF. At the east side doses ranged from 2.10 to 2.58 Gy under shielding of 2.90 to 1.37 g/cm2 (M0004) while on the west side doses ranged from 2.66 to 6.48 Gy under shielding of 15.4 to 0.48 g/cm2 (P0006). The west side doses were more than a factor of two higher, where the vertical shielding thicknesses to space were equal. Other west side doses of 3.04 to 4.49 Gy under shielding of 11.7 to 3.85 g/cm2 (A0015(a)) and 2.91 to 6.64 Gy under shielding of 11.1 to 0.48 g/cm2 (P0004) generally agreed with the P0006 results. The Earth side doses of 2.41 to 3.93 Gy under shielding of 10.0 to 1.66 g cm2 (A0015(b)) were intermediate between the east side and west side doses. Calculations utilizing a model of trapped proton spectra were performed by Watts et al. (1993) and comparisons of dose measurement and calculations may be found in a companion paper (Armstrong et al., 1996).

Flight Experiment↗
NASA NTRS1994

Deep cumulonimbus cloud systems in the tropics with and without lightning

The thunderstorm frequency over the oceans during the Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment is quantified by examination of over 20,000 surface hourly observations from research ships. The overall thunderstorm frequency is one thunderstorm day per ship per month. There were many examples of intense mesoscale systems, such as squall lines, passing over the ships, extending to 13-17 km in altitude, but that nevertheless produce few reports of lightning. This reinforces the idea, based on data from other tropical ocean regions and from global satellite data, that in spite of the ubiquitous 'hot towers' over tropical oceans, marine cumulonimbus produce little lightning. Climatological data from the monsoon regions of the Tropics are analyzed to reveal that during periods of onshore flow and heavy rainfall the oceanic regime of high rainfall but little lightning moves onshore. A rain-thunderstorm ratio is defined and used to characterize convective rainfall regimes as continental (relatively little) or maritime (relatively great) rainfall compared to the number of thunderstorm days. In regions such as West Africa and south Asia, the seasonal rainfall peak is actually accompanied by a thunderstorm minimum. It is further suggested that the data support the idea, not original here, that vertical velocities in oceanic cumulonimbus clouds tend to be low compared with continental clouds. It is hypothesized that most oceanic storms have updrafts weaker than a posssible threshold value, below which the supercooled liquid water, large ice particles, and ice-ice collisions are not present in the mixed-phase region in sufficient concentrations for electrification leading to lightning.

Zipser, Edward J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

Liu, W. Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2007

Mechanisms for the Intraseasonal Variability of Tropospheric Ozone over the Indian Ocean during the Winter Monsoon

We synthesize daily sonde (vertical) information and daily satellite (horizontal) information to provide an empirical description of ozone origins over the northern Indian Ocean during the INDOEX (Indian Ocean Experiment) field campaign (February-March 1999). This area is shown to be a significant portion of the "high-ozone tropics". East-west O3 features and their flow are identified, and ozone origins are compared to other tropical regions, using water vapor as a second tracer. In the study period, multiple processes contribute to O3 column enhancements, their importance varying strongly by latitude: (1) Low-altitude O3 pollution over the northern Indian Ocean mainly originates from the Indian subcontinent and is traceable to high emission areas. Convective activity south of Sri Lanka helps direct ozone outflow from the northern Indian subcontinent. (2) Middle tropospheric O3 maxima over the northern Indian Ocean originate from various sources, often transitioning within a few hours. Convective venting of Asian pollutants can add 20-30 ppbv to the middle troposphere at 5degN-10degN, alternating with stratospheric influence. (3) A number of cases suggest that strong mixing-in of stratospheric air along the subtropical jet raised tropospheric O3 in early March by approx.40-50 ppbv, especially poleward of approx. 10degN. (4) Influences of lightning and large-scale biomass burning were not strong during this period, in contrast to the situation in Africa and the South Atlantic or locally in Southeast Asia. This work illustrates successes and limitations in approaches to synthesizing disparate information on trace-gas distributions taken from satellite retrieval products and ozonesondes.

Chatfield, R. b.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Annular and Total Solar Eclipses of 2003

On Saturday, 2003 May 31, an annular eclipse of the Sun will be visible from a broad corridor that traverses the North Atlantic. The path of the Moon's antumbral shadow begins in northern Scotland, crosses Iceland and central Greenland, and ends at sunrise in Baffin Bay (Canada). A partial eclipse will be seen within the much broader path of the Moon's penumbral shadow, which includes most of Europe, the Middle East, central and northern Asia, and northwestern North America. The trajectory of the Moon's shadow is quite unusual during this event. The shadow axis passes to the far north where it barely grazes Earth's surface. In fact, the northern edge of the antumbra actually misses Earth so that one path limit is defined by the day/night terminator rather than by the shadow's upper edge. As a result, the track of annularity has a peculiar "D" shape that is nearly 1200 kilometers wide. Since the eclipse occurs just three weeks prior to the northern summer solstice, Earth's northern axis is pointed sunwards by 22.8 deg. As seen from the Sun, the antumbral shadow actually passes between the North Pole and the terminator. As a consequence of this extraordinary geometry, the path of annularity runs from east to west rather than the more typical west to east. The event transpires near the Moon's ascending node in Taurus five degrees north of Aldebaran. Since apogee occurs three days earlier (May 28 at 13 UT), the Moon's apparent diameter (29.6 arc-minutes) is still too small to completely cover the Sun (31.6 arc-minutes) resulting in an annular eclipse.

Espenak, Fred↗
NASA NTRS2012

Diagnostic modeling of dimethylsulfide production in coastal water west of the Antarctic Peninsula

The rate of gross biological dimethylsulfide (DMS) production at two coastal sites west of the Antarctic Peninsula, off Anvers Island, near Palmer Station, was estimated using a diagnostic approach that combined field measurements from 1 January 2006 through 1 March 2006 and a one-dimensional physical model of ocean mixing. The average DMS production rate in the upper water column (0-60 m) was estimated to be 3.1 +/- 0.6 nM/d at station B (closer to shore) and 2.7 +/- 0.6 nM/d1 at station E (further from shore). The estimated DMS replacement time was on the order of 1 d at both stations. DMS production was greater in the mixed layer than it was below the mixed layer. The average DMS production normalized to chlorophyll was 0.5 +/- nM/d)/(mg cubic m) at station B and 0.7 +/- 0.2 (nM/d)/(mg/cubic m3) at station E. When the diagnosed production rates were normalized to the observed concentrations of total dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSPt, the biogenic precursor of DMS), we found a remarkable similarity between our estimates at stations B and E (0.06 +/- 0.02 and 0.04 +/- 0.01 (nM DMS / d1)/(nM DMSP), respectively) and the results obtained in a previous study from a contrasting biogeochemical environment in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre (0.047 =/- 0.006 and 0.087 +/- 0.014 (nM DMS d1)/(nM DMSP) in a cyclonic and anticyclonic eddy, respectively).We propose that gross biological DMS production normalized to DMSPt might be relatively independent of the biogeochemical environment, and place our average estimate at 0.06 +/- 0.01 (nM DMS / d)/(nM DMSPt). The significance of this finding is that it can provide a means to use DMSPt measurements to extrapolate gross biological DMS production, which is extremely difficult to measure experimentally under realistic in situ conditions.

Dimethylsulfide↗
NASA NTRS2011

Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a High-Resolution Model: Sensitivity to Large-Scale Boundary Forcing

The predictability of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal was explored in terms of track and intensity using the Advanced Research Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (AHW) model. This constitutes the first application of the AHW over an area that lies outside the region of the North Atlantic for which this model was developed and tested. Several experiments were conducted to understand the possible contributing factors that affected Sidr s intensity and track simulation by varying the initial start time and domain size. Results show that Sidr s track was strongly controlled by the synoptic flow at the 500-hPa level, seen especially due to the strong mid-latitude westerly over north-central India. A 96-h forecast produced westerly winds over north-central India at the 500-hPa level that were notably weaker; this likely caused the modeled cyclone track to drift from the observed actual track. Reducing the model domain size reduced model error in the synoptic-scale winds at 500 hPa and produced an improved cyclone track. Specifically, the cyclone track appeared to be sensitive to the upstream synoptic flow, and was, therefore, sensitive to the location of the western boundary of the domain. However, cyclone intensity remained largely unaffected by this synoptic wind error at the 500-hPa level. Comparison of the high resolution, moving nested domain with a single coarser resolution domain showed little difference in tracks, but resulted in significantly different intensities. Experiments on the domain size with regard to the total precipitation simulated by the model showed that precipitation patterns and 10-m surface winds were also different. This was mainly due to the mid-latitude westerly flow across the west side of the model domain. The analysis also suggested that the total precipitation pattern and track was unchanged when the domain was extended toward the east, north, and south. Furthermore, this highlights our conclusion that Sidr was influenced from the west side of the domain. The displacement error was significantly reduced after the domain size from the western model boundary was decreased. Study results demonstrate the capability and need of a high-resolution mesoscale modeling framework for simulating the complex interactions that contribute to the formation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal region

Kumar, Anil↗
NASA NTRS2017

Extreme Storms

Key Findings: 1. Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence). 2. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence). 3. Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low. 4. There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential linkages between the frequency and intensity of severe winter storms in the United States and accelerated warming in the Arctic have been postulated, but they are complex, and, to some extent, contested, and confidence in the connection is currently low. 5. The frequency and severity of landfalling "atmospheric rivers" on the U.S. West Coast (narrow streams of moisture that account for 30 percent to 40 percent of the typical snowpack and annual precipitation in the region and are associated with severe flooding events) will increase as a result of increasing evaporation and resulting higher atmospheric water vapor that occurs with increasing temperature. (Medium confidence)

Kossin, J. P.↗