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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A Data-Driven Global Sensitivity Analysis Framework for Three-Phase Distribution System with PVs

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of distribution systems with respect to stochastic PV and load variations plays an important role in designing optimal voltage control schemes. This paper proposes a data-driven framework for GSA of distribution systems. In particular, two representative surrogate modeling-based approaches are developed, including the traditional Gaussian process-based and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) kernel ones. The key idea is to develop a surrogate model that captures the hidden global relationship between voltage and real and reactive power injections from the historical data. With the surrogate model, the Sobol indices can be conveniently calculated through either the sampling-based method or the analytical method to assess the global sensitivity of voltage to variations of PV and load power injections. The sampling-based method approximates the Sobol indices using Monte Carlo simulations while the analytical method calculates them by resorting to the ANOVA expansion framework. Comparison results with other model-based GSA methods on the unbalanced three-phase IEEE 37-bus and 123-bus distribution systems show that the proposed framework can achieve much higher computational efficiency with negligible loss of accuracy. The results on a real 240-node distribution system using actual smart meter data further validate the feasibility and scalability of the proposed framework.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tensile testing and fracture mechanism analysis of polyvinyl alcohol nanofibrous webs

Abstract A tensile properties testing study was conducted to understand the influence of thickness, cross‐head speed (speed of testing), gauge length (GL; specimen test length), and sample shape on important tensile properties of polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) nanofiber webs. The effects of each testing parameter on load at break, extension at break, Young's modulus, and tensile stress–strain curve of PVA nanofiber webs are analyzed. The Welch two sample t ‐tests show the significant difference among tested data. Using interaction plots, two‐way analysis of variance, and margin mean plots, the interaction effects among testing parameters have been analyzed. Of all the factors, cross‐head speed, the interaction among GL, and sample thickness (GL: Thickness) and the interaction among GL, testing speed and sample thickness (GL: Speed: Thickness) have significant influence on the tensile properties of PVA nanofiber webs. Moreover, the hypothesized model of mechanism of tensile strain–stress curve of PVA nanofiber webs has been proposed. Based on the model, the tensile strain–stress curve can be split into three stages: linear elastic, partial break up, and complete breakage. This study will provide a better understanding of tensile testing parameters' effects and their interaction effects on the tensile properties of nanowebs.

Lou, Lihua↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-moisture pelleting of corn stover using pilot- and commercial-scale systems: Impact of moisture content, L / D ratio and hammer mill screen size on pellet quality and energy consumption

Here, high-moisture pelleting of corn stover was tested in pilot- and commercial-scale systems. For the pilot-scale study, a 6.35 mm screen size hammer mill ground corn stover was reconditioned to moisture between 14 and 29.6% (w.b.), and 5, 7 and 9 L/D ratio pellet die were used. At 29% corn stover moisture content and L/D ratios of 5 and 9, the bulk density and durability of the pellets were ≤450 kg/m 3 and <90% and >540 kg/m 3 and >90%, respectively. Increasing the feedstock moisture and L/D ratio increased the pelleting energy. Increasing the hammer mill screen size to 11.11 mm reduced the bulk density but not the durability. The response surface models adequately described the pelleting process (R 2 ≥ 0.88), and analysis of variance showed a strong interaction between the process variables and pellet properties. Commercial-scale testing of high-moisture pelleting using 6.35 mm ground corn stover bales in the moisture range 24–26% (w.b.) produced pellets with a density of >675 kg/m 3 and durability of >98%, whereas increasing the hammer mill screen size to 11.11 mm reduced the bulk density by about 100 kg/m 3 but not the durability. The energy consumption of the commercial-scale unit operations for the high-moisture pelleting process was in the range 98–124 kW h/ton, which is 64–72% less energy than conventional pelleting that requires energy about 350 kW h/ton for biomass drying from 30% (w.b.) to 10% (w.b.) moisture content before pelleting. Pellets produced using high-moisture pelleting met International Organization for Standardization and Pellets Fuel Institute international standards. Published 2023. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Switchgrass sward establishment selection is consistent across multiple environments and fertilization levels

Strong selection can occur during switchgrass sward establishment. Differences in establishment selection due to environment or management could provide information on genotype-by-environment variation and could influence strategies for breeding perennial grasses. Leaf samples were collected before sward establishment and from 3-year-old swards for two breeding groups (lowland and hybrid) at three locations. Within two locations, samples were collected from paired fertilized (112 kg N ha –1 ) and unfertilized plots. Allele frequencies from pooled DNA samples were studied through multivariate analysis of variance, genomewide trait predictions (heading date and winter survivorship), and genomically estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for individual sward survival within an independent data set. This study found only minor variations in selection due to location or management. Predicted heading dates of the hybrid population had significant changes due to fertilization and location. There were strong correlations among sward establishment survival GEBVs between growing environments (hybrid r = 0.77; gulf r = 0.97). Interestingly, this study found a small number of genotypes that were over-represented in established swards across all growing environments. This study reinforces a prior report of selection during sward establishment and indicates that only a small degree of establishment selection is location-specific within these diverse growing conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Engineering integration in elementary science classrooms: Effects of disciplinary language scaffolds on English learners' content learning and engineering identity

Abstract Background Limited research examines the effects of integrated science and engineering (SE) instruction emphasizing disciplinary literacy and language activities on engineering identity and content understanding. Far fewer studies target English learners (ELs). Purpose The impact of an SE intervention on the development of science, engineering, and technology knowledge as well as engineering identity was examined. To address ELs' learning needs, the curricular design was built on a validated SE model by integrating (1) developmental, (2) language scaffolds, and (3) culturally based accommodations. Design/Method Separate analysis of variance examined the effects of the intervention on science, engineering, and technology knowledge as well as engineering identity. The relationship among engineering identity and content outcomes was also examined. ELs from kindergarten to second grade classrooms were randomly assigned to the integrated SE group or control group. Results Integrated SE instruction significantly increased ELs' science, engineering, and technology knowledge as well as a substantially developed engineering identity. Overall, ELs' engineering identity is associated with an increase in science, engineering, and technology content knowledge. However, second grade girls' identity development was not associated with learning measures. These correlations suggest the context of the engineering activity may have reinforced gendered stereotypes and reduced the effects for girls' engineering attitudes. Conclusions Integrated SE instruction emphasizing disciplinary literacy and cultural accommodations increases early elementary ELs' learning and engineering identity. Future studies should examine the unique effects of language scaffolds and cultural modifications on student learning and the impact of gender stereotypes on girls' engineering attitudes.

Aguirre‐Muñoz, Zenaida↗
DOE OSTI2026

A multi‐variable framework for selecting WRF physics configurations at convection‐permitting scales: An Amazon wet‐season case study

Tropical convection over rainforests modulates atmospheric circulation and the energy and hydrological cycles across multiple scales. However, the scarcity of observations still limits our understanding of these processes. Although numerical models are utilized to investigate atmospheric physical processes, their performance depends on the choice of parameterizations and grid resolution. Here, in this work, we introduce and apply a multi‐variable, multi‐physics framework to evaluate and rank the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF–ARW) configurations at 1‐km resolution over the central Amazon during the wet season. A 48‐member ensemble combines three land‐surface models (LSMs), four planetary boundary layer (PBL), and four microphysics (MP) schemes. Model performance for seven convection‐related near‐surface and boundary‐layer variables is assessed using Taylor diagrams and the Taylor skill score (TSS), analysis of variance (ANOVA)‐based sensitivity metrics, and non‐parametric rank tests. We then construct a combined, weighted TSS to identify configurations that are comparatively robust across variables. Results showed that most configurations reproduce near‐surface temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and boundary‐layer height reasonably well, whereas humidity and rainfall remain challenging. LSM choice has the strongest impact on the surface fluxes and a secondary influence on near‐surface temperature and humidity, PBL schemes dominate boundary‐layer height, and MP schemes exert the largest control on rainfall. No single configuration is optimal for all variables, but the combination of Noah (LSM), Yonsei University (PBL), and Morrison (MP) emerges as the most robust configuration for this case, with the WRF single‐moment six‐class scheme (WSM6) providing a competitive, computationally cheaper MP alternative. The framework is general and can be applied to other regions, seasons, and convective regimes.

Amazon rainforest↗
DOE OSTI2020

An experimental investigation of the effectiveness of Ar-CO 2 shielding gas mixture for the wire arc additive process

Wire arc additive manufacturing (AM) is the process by which a large, metallic structure is built layer-by-layer using a welding arc to melt a wire feedstock. A novel opportunity exists to alter the shielding gas composition to fabricate distinct geometrical features without altering the other AM parameters. In this paper, shielding gases with varied concentrations of Argon (Ar) and CO 2 was used to deposit three distinct geometric shapes (walls, infill, and overhang) using a wire-based additive manufacturing system utilizing the gas metal arc welding (GMAW) surface tension transfer (STT) process. Computer-aided design (CAD) models were sliced with a custom-built slicer, and the sliced algorithm was converted into optimal robotic toolpaths. A custom virtual instrument (VI) was built in LabVIEW to compare the temperature profiles on the surface during each deposition process. After each deposition, the geometric features were scanned, and the surface waviness value was evaluated. Tensile and Charpy impact coupons were extracted from the wall geometries in the longitudinal and transverse directions and tested. The results indicated that a higher CO 2 content produced higher melt pool temperatures to an extent, while lower contents of CO 2 resulted in a dimensionally accurate geometry. The data also indicated that the 2%/98% CO 2 /Ar blend produced scatter in tensile strength and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows significant difference. However, the intermediate range of CO 2 (5–10%) resulted in uniform tensile properties. Altogether, these results indicate that a 5%/95% CO 2 /Ar blend is the ideal shielding gas for lowering process temperatures and improving mechanical properties in wire arc additive manufacturing using the gas metal arc welding surface tension transfer process. Additionally, varying concentrations of Ar/CO 2 can be used within the same part in order to modify the local properties or process parameters such as strength, toughness, temperature, or dimensional features. This may improve overall manufacturing quality without sacrificing specific properties.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of cyberattacks on safety and stability of connected and automated vehicle platoons under lane changes

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) offer a huge potential to improve the operations and safety of transportation systems. However, the use of smart devices and communications in CAVs introduce new risks. CAVs would leverage vehicle to vehicle (V2V) and vehicle to infrastructure (V2I) communication, thus providing additional system access points compared to traditional systems. Automation makes these systems more vulnerable and increases the consequences of cyberattacks. This study utilizes an infrastructure-based communication platform consisting of cooperative adaptive cruise control and lane control advisories developed by the authors to perform cyber risk assessment of CAVs. The study emulates three types of cyberattacks (message falsification, dedicated denial of service, and spoofing attacks) in a representative traffic environment consisting of multiple CAV platoons and lane change events to analyze the safety and stability impacts of the cyberattacks. Simulation experiments using VISSIM reveals that traffic stream and CAV string is unstable under all three types of cyberattacks. The worst case is represented by the message falsification attack. Increases in volatility are observed over a no attack case, with variations increasing by an average of 43%–51% along with an increase of over 3000 crash conflicts. Similarly, lane change crash conflicts are observed to be more severe compared to rear end crash conflicts, showing a higher probability of severe injuries. Further, the case of slight cyberattack on a single CAV also creates significant disruption in the traffic stream. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) reveals the statistical significance of the results. Furthermore, these results pave the way for future design of secure systems from a monitoring perspective.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evolution of AISI 304L stainless steel part properties due to powder recycling in laser powder-bed fusion

Selective laser melting (SLM) is a powder-bed fusion process in Additive Manufacturing (AM) that uses a laser beam to selectively fuse layers of powder into near net-shape components with little porosity. However, inconsistencies in the part properties due to the presence of defects in as-built components has hindered the widespread adoption of SLM for industrial applications forcing researchers to study the sources of variation for quality control purposes. A critical area suspected of creating variation in the part properties is the feedstock, where batch-to-batch differences as well as changes in the powder properties with reuse have the potential to affect performance. During processing, laser spatter and condensate eject from the melt pool and deposit into the powder-bed surrounding the parts. These particulates, more commonly known as ejecta, differ morphologically and chemically from the virgin powder compromising its reusability. In this study, 304L stainless steel powder was recycled for a total of 5 times through a systematic approach aimed at accelerating powder degradation to reveal the influence on both the tensile and impact toughness properties. Through analysis of variance (ANOVA), it was found that tensile properties did not change with reuse, while the impact toughness showed a steady decline illustrating the differences in static and dynamic part properties due to powder recycling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying physical parameterization uncertainties associated with land-atmosphere interactions in the WRF model over Amazon

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to diagnose regional land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength in the absence of sufficient observations but subjected to uncertainties associated with model physical parameterizations. In this study, we propose a framework to quantify and reduce model physical parameterization uncertainties associated with surface fluxes and L-A coupling. An ensemble of WRF simulations with different physical schemes is used to simulate surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling strength over the Amazon region. The physical parameterizations investigated include cloud microphysics (MP), land surface processes (LSM), planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface layer (SL), and cumulus (CU). We perform 120 ensemble simulations using the WRF model and different combinations of six MPs, three LSMs, six PBLs and SLs and three CUs. The measurements from the GoAMAZON field campaign and satellite data are used to evaluate model performance. A Multi-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is applied to quantify the relative importance of different physics processes on L-A coupling. The Tukey’s test is used to sort schemes that have no significant differences into one group. The suite of physics that result in the best simulations of the corresponding variables are selected based on the Taylor skill score. Results show that the relative importance of processes and their interaction vary with the variables of interest. For example, CU was the most important process in modulating soil moisture, 2 m-humidity, latent heat, and net radiation. LSM showed dominant effects on 2 m-temperature and also has the largest impact on sensible heat and the lifting condensation level. The best physical parameterization ensembles show much narrower ranges of the variables of interest than the priori ensemble. Results of this study show the roles of different physical processes in modulating L-A interactions, quantify model uncertainties from physical processes, and provide insights for improving the model physics parameterizations.

Wang, Chen↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microbial community diversity changes during voltage reversal repair in a 12-unit microbial fuel cell

Microbial fuel cell stacks (MFC-Stack) are often confronted with voltage reversals, likely due to an interplay between microbial community dynamics and insufficient electric circuit balancing. Herein, we provide new insight into voltage reversals by examining the microbiomes of twelve MFC units of a 12-liter Pilot-MFC-Stack during repair. Different biofilm repair methods (self-healing, electrostimulation, and re-acclimatization upon cross-inoculation) were used to evaluate the microbial community response. In addition, MFC-Stack simulation was performed based on Kirchhoff’s Second Law to predict values for source potentials and post-evaluate internal resistances. Analysis of the 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing data suggests that the biofilm repair methods could slowly heal damaged biofilms. Notably, severely voltage reversed MFC units had low electrogen relative abundances (18%) and positive anode potentials, while strong bioanodes and contained more than 50% electrogens and had negative anode potentials. Between-community analyses (beta diversity ordination and multinomial regression) of the voltage reversed MFC units revealed differences among biofilms in contrast to healthy/strong MFC units. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) confirmed that reversed biofilms were, indeed, significantly (p < 0.05) different from stronger ones. Overall, these analyses demonstrated the utility of combining electrotechnical and microbial community analyses, especially beta diversity ordination and multinomial regression, to understand problematic MFC units and the potential success of a biofilm repair method. Finally, thicker biofilms were usually healthier and stronger, although thickness was no guarantee for proper structure and power function as all factors were interdependent. There was an evolutionary trend that strong anodes became stronger/healthier and others weaker. This spontaneous trend has to be considered to avoid irreversible voltage reversals and to repair electrogenic biofilms in an MFC-Stack.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Precipitation hardening of laser powder bed fusion Ti-6Al-4V

Here, the laser powder bed fusion (PBF-L) additive manufacturing (AM) community has dedicated significant efforts into process optimization and control for defect-free Ti-6Al-4V. As defects become less of an issue for PBF-L Ti-6Al-4V, the processing-structure-properties (PSP) relationships between AM microstructures can now be explored to optimize mechanical properties. Lower temperature aging treatments around 550 °C in wrought Ti-6A-4V have been historically understood to precipitation harden the α phase with an ordered, hexagonal close packed (HCP) α 2 phase. The α 2 phase existed as nanoscale Ti 3 Al precipitates coherent with the parent α phase. The goal of the present investigation was to implement a vacuum heat treatment of 545 °C for 100 hours on PBF-L Ti-6Al-4V. This vacuum heat treatment took place after an initial hot isostatic pressure (HIP) treatment that decomposed the as-built, martensitic microstructure. The vacuum aging successfully produced nanoscale precipitates of α 2 phase within α-laths, confirmed via atom probe tomography (APT). Microstructural-length scale and quasi-static mechanical properties were investigated by nanoindentation and uniaxial tensile tests of miniaturized test specimens. Given the sensitivity of Ti-6Al-4V mechanical properties to small changes in chemistry, all test specimens originated from the same build. The α 2 precipitation resulted in significantly harder α-laths (≈ 2 GPa) as measured via nanoindentation, as well as a relative yield and ultimate tensile strength increase of 60 MPa and 38 MPa, respectively. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) of the datasets revealed no statistical differences in total elongation between the HIPed and HIPed + aged specimens, indicative of the aging treatment producing a net benefit of strength with no loss in ductility.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

More buck-per-shot: Why learning trumps mitigation in noisy quantum sensing

Quantum sensing is one of the most promising applications for quantum technologies. However, reaching the ultimate sensitivities enabled by the laws of quantum mechanics can be a challenging task in realistic scenarios where noise is present. While several strategies have been proposed to deal with the detrimental effects of noise, these come at the cost of an extra shot budget. Given that shots are a precious resource for sensing – as infinite measurements could lead to infinite precision – care must be taken to truly guarantee that any shot not being used for sensing is actually leading to some metrological improvement. In this work, we study whether investing shots in error-mitigation, inference techniques, or combinations thereof, can improve the sensitivity of a noisy quantum sensor on a (shot) budget. We present a detailed bias–variance error analysis for various sensing protocols. Our results show that the costs of zero-noise extrapolation techniques outweigh their benefits. We also find that pre-characterizing a quantum sensor via inference techniques leads to the best performance, under the assumption that the sensor is sufficiently stable.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influence of living grass Roots and endophytic fungal hyphae on soil hydraulic properties

Soil hydraulic properties are often estimated based on laboratory data or pedotransfer functions dependent on soil physical properties, which often do not consider potential impacts of soil roots or fungal hyphae. Here, we first review current knowledge of how these soil biotic components affect hydraulic properties, then we conducted laboratory experiments to specifically test if the presence of roots and mycorrhizal fungi had a significant effect on the hydraulic properties of two soils with contrasting textures: Flint sand and Hamblen silt loam. Soil cores were seeded with (Panicum virgatum) and grown in a greenhouse over three separate growth periods. The endophytic fungus Serendipita indica was injected as liquid inoculant into designated mycorrhizal cores. Saturated hydraulic conductivity (K sat ) measurements were made with a constant head permeameter, and soil water retention curves were obtained by the evaporation method, supplemented at the dry end for Hamblen silt loam with water activity meter data. Retention curve parameters were obtained by fitting the van Genuchten equation to the resulting measurements. Mean root volume ratios were higher in the mycorrhizal inoculated treatment than in the uninoculated treatment for both soils. For Flint sand, analysis of variance revealed that K sat was reduced by the presence of roots as compared to bare soil. This was likely due to roots clogging soil pores. Results also indicated the presence of roots changed the shape of the water retention curve for Flint sand by increasing water content at saturation and by reducing the slope of the curve. These changes suggested roots created additional porosity and broadened the pore-size distribution. The presence of mycorrhizal fungi accentuated the root effects. The influence of roots and mycorrhizal fungi on hydraulic properties was less obvious for the Hamblen silt loam, as none of the treatments differed from each other at p < 0.05. The results highlight the necessity to consider the impact of root and fungal structures on models of soil hydraulic properties.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget

Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994–2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm –2 ) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-model Hydroclimate Projections for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the Southeastern United States

Abstract This study uses a high-resolution, process-based modeling framework to assess the impacts of changing climate on water resources for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the southeastern United States. A 33-member ensemble of hydrologic projections was generated using 3 distributed hydrologic models (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, Variable Infiltration Capacity, and Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model) of different complexity. These hydrologic models were driven by dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected future climate simulations from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario, with 40 years each in baseline (1966–2005) and future (2011–2050) periods. The hydroclimate response, in general, projects an increase in mean seasonal precipitation, runoff, and streamflow. The high and low flows are projected to increase and decrease, respectively, in general, suggesting increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events and intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The uncertainty associated with the ensemble hydroclimate response, analyzed through an analysis of variance technique, suggests that the choice of climate model is more critical than the choice of hydrologic model for the studied region. This study provides in-depth insights of hydroclimate response and associated uncertainties to support informed decisions by water resource managers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty in land carbon budget simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: the role of atmospheric forcing

Global estimates of the land carbon sink are often based on simulations by terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The use of a large number of models that differ in their underlying hypotheses, structure and parameters is one way to assess the uncertainty in the historical land carbon sink. Here we show that the atmospheric forcing datasets used to drive these TBMs represent a significant source of uncertainty that is currently not systematically accounted for in land carbon cycle evaluations. We present results from three TBMs each forced with three different historical atmospheric forcing reconstructions over the period 1850–2015. We perform an analysis of variance to quantify the relative uncertainty in carbon fluxes arising from the models themselves, atmospheric forcing, and model-forcing interactions. We find that atmospheric forcing in this set of simulations plays a dominant role on uncertainties in global gross primary productivity (GPP) (75% of variability) and autotrophic respiration (90%), and a significant but reduced role on net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration (30%). Atmospheric forcing is the dominant driver (52%) of variability for the net ecosystem exchange flux, defined as the difference between GPP and respiration (both autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration). In contrast, for wildfire-driven carbon emissions model uncertainties dominate and, as a result, model uncertainties dominate for net ecosystem productivity. At regional scales, the contribution of atmospheric forcing to uncertainty shows a very heterogeneous pattern and is smaller on average than at the global scale. We find that this difference in the relative importance of forcing uncertainty between global and regional scales is related to large differences in regional model flux estimates, which partially offset each other when integrated globally, while the flux differences driven by forcing are mainly consistent across the world and therefore add up to a larger fractional contribution to global uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗