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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling suggests fossil fuel emissions have been driving increased land carbon uptake since the turn of the 20th Century

Terrestrial vegetation removes CO 2 from the atmosphere; an important climate regulation service that slows global warming. This 119 Pg C per annum transfer of CO 2 into plants—gross primary productivity (GPP)—is the largest land carbon flux globally. While understanding past and anticipated future GPP changes is necessary to support carbon management, the factors driving long-term changes in GPP are largely unknown. In this study, we show that 1901 to 2010 changes in GPP have been dominated by anthropogenic activity. Our dual constraint attribution approach provides three insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of GPP change. First, anthropogenic controls on GPP change have increased from 57% (1901 decade) to 94% (2001 decade) of the vegetated land surface. Second, CO 2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition are the most important drivers of change, 19.8 and 11.1 Pg C per annum (2001 decade) respectively, especially in the tropics and industrialized areas since the 1970’s. Third, changes in climate have functioned as fertilization to enhance GPP (1.4 Pg C per annum in the 2001 decade). These findings suggest that, from a land carbon balance perspective, the Anthropocene began over 100 years ago and that global change drivers have allowed GPP uptake to keep pace with anthropogenic emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Geostationary Fourier Transform Spectrometer

The Geostationary Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GeoFTS) is an imaging spectrometer designed for a geostationary orbit (GEO) earth science mission to measure key atmospheric trace gases and process tracers related to climate change and human activity. GEO allows GeoFTS to continuously stare at a region of the earth for frequent sampling to capture the variability of biogenic fluxes and anthropogenic emissions from city to continental spatial scales and temporal scales from diurnal, synoptic, seasonal to interannual. The measurement strategy provides a process based understanding of the carbon cycle from contiguous maps of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), and chlorophyll fluorescence (CF) collected many times per day at high spatial resolution (~2.7kmx2.7km at nadir). The CO2/CH4/CO/CF measurement suite in the near infrared spectral region provides the information needed to disentangle natural and anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric carbon concentrations and to minimize uncertainties in the flow of carbon between the atmosphere and surface. The half meter cube size GeoFTS instrument is based on a Michelson interferometer design that uses all high TRL components in a modular configuration to reduce complexity and cost. It is self-contained and as independent of the spacecraft as possible with simple spacecraft interfaces, making it ideal to be a "hosted" payload on a commercial communications satellite mission. The hosted payload approach for measuring the major carbon-containing gases in the atmosphere from the geostationary vantage point will affordably advance the scientific understating of carbon cycle processes and climate change.

atmospheric trace gases↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Accelerating TEMPO Air Quality Science Through STAQS

Soon after the launch of Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) mission, NASA is supporting the Synergistic TEMPO Air Quality Science field study (STAQS) in summer 2023. This study’s main objective is to accelerate science with geostationary air quality observations from TEMPO to better understand its use in air pollution research and applications. Science objectives include, but are not limited to, TEMPO L2 product evaluation, the interpretation of the spatiotemporal evolution of TEMPO data during air quality events, assessment of anthropogenic emissions, contributions to chemical transport modeling, and environmental justice applications. These objectives can be accomplished through the integration of satellite data with systematically repeated high-resolution aircraft- and ground-based measurements in multiple urban environments. The primary urban cities considered include Los Angeles, New York City, and Chicago in June-August 2023. Measurements consist of airborne remote sensing observations of air quality constituents of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), formaldehyde (HCHO), ozone, and aerosols using the GeoCape Airborne Simulator and High-Spectral Resolution Lidar 2/Differential Absorption Lidar (HSRL2/DIAL) on the NASA JSC G-V aircraft, greenhouse gas observations from Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer - Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) and High Altitude Lidar Observatory (HALO) on the NASA LaRC G-III aircraft, and ground-based remote sensing and in situ observations of ozone, NO2, and HCHO from the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet), Pandora spectrometers, and ground-based monitoring networks. Key partnership studies providing in situ airborne observations include the NOAA Atmospheric Emissions and Reactions Observed from Megacities to Marine Areas (AEROMMA) field study on the NASA DC-8 in the same primary target areas as STAQS and Greater New York Oxidant, Tropospheric Halogens, and Aerosol Measurements and Modeling (GOTHAMM) field study on the NSF C-130 near New York City. This presentation will include a current status update of the STAQS mission and an overview of its measurement strategies and science objectives with the goal of promoting continued discussions for building and strengthening collaborations prior to the mission.

Laura Judd↗
DOE OSTI2021

Aircraft measurements of aerosol and trace gas chemistry in the eastern North Atlantic

The Aerosol and Cloud Experiment in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) investigated properties of aerosols and subtropical marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds. Low subtropical marine clouds can have a large effect on Earth's radiative budget, but they are poorly represented in global climate models. In order to understand their radiative effects, it is imperative to understand the composition and sources of the MBL cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The campaign consisted of two intensive operation periods (IOPs) (June–July 2017 and January–February 2018) during which an instrumented G-1 aircraft was deployed from Lajes Field on Terceira Island in the Azores, Portugal. The G-1 conducted research flights in the vicinity of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) atmospheric observatory on Graciosa Island. An Aerodyne high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS) and Ionicon proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) were deployed aboard the aircraft, characterizing chemistry of non-refractory aerosol and trace gases, respectively. The eastern North Atlantic region was found to be very clean, with an average non-refractory submicrometer aerosol mass loading of 0.6 µg m −3 in the summer and 0.1 µg m −3 in the winter, measured by the AMS. Average concentrations of the trace reactive gases methanol and acetone were 1–2 ppb; benzene, toluene and isoprene were even lower, <1 ppb. Mass fractions of sulfate, organics, ammonium and nitrate in the boundary layer were 69 %, 23 %, 7 % and 1 % and remained largely similar between seasons. The aerosol chemical composition was dominated by sulfate and highly processed organics. Particulate methanesulfonic acid (MSA), a well-known secondary biogenic marine species, was detected, with an average boundary layer concentration of 0.021 µg m −3 , along with its gas-phase precursor, dimethyl sulfide (DMS). MSA accounted for no more than 3 % of the submicron, non-refractory aerosol in the boundary layer. Examination of vertical profiles of aerosol and gas chemistry during ACE-ENA reveals an interplay of local marine emissions and long-range-transported aged aerosol. A case of transport of biomass burning emissions from North American fires has been identified using back-trajectory analysis. In the summer, the non-refractory portion of the background CCN budget was heavily influenced by aerosol associated with ocean productivity, in particular sulfate formed from DMS oxidation. Episodic transport from the continents, particularly of biomass burning aerosol, periodically increased CCN concentrations in the free troposphere. In the winter, with ocean productivity lower, CCN concentrations were overall much lower and dominated by remote transport. These results show that anthropogenic emissions perturb CCN concentrations in remote regions that are sensitive to changes in CCN number and illustrate that accurate predictions of both transport and regional aerosol formation from the oceans are critical to accurately modeling clouds in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Emergence of Human Influence on Surface Air Temperature Changes Over India

Human activities in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and aerosols resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels have been shown to have affected the temperature of the Earth on global and continental scales. The surface air temperature (TAS) over India has also been observed to be increasing over the last 100 years. Understanding the underlying causes of regional climate change over India can help in developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Differentiating signals of externally forced climate changes from the noise of natural internal variability generally becomes more difficult as spatial scale reduces. Therefore detecting and attributing the influence of external forcings such as GHGs and aerosols is harder at local and regional scales. In this study, we applied a detection and attribution (D&A) method to study annual and seasonal mean TAS over the Indian region. We found that the observed warming over India from 1906 to 2005 cannot be explained by natural climate variability alone. We found that the warming is largely driven by the increase in GHGs, and partially offset by regional anthropogenic emissions of aerosols. These results were confirmed for the shorter 1956–2005 period, but results were sensitive to the choice of observational data set. Furthermore, the changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability or natural external forcings alone, but are compatible with the responses to combined anthropogenic GHG and aerosol forcings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Use of Machine Learning to Reduce Uncertainties in Particle Number Concentration and Aerosol Indirect Radiative Forcing Predicted by Climate Models

The radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols associated with aerosol–cloud interactions (RF(sub aci)) remains the largest source of uncertainty in climate prediction. The calculation of particle number concentration (PNC), one of the critical parameters affecting RF(sub aci), is generally simplified in climate models. Here we employ outputs from long-term (30-years) simulations of a global size-resolved (sectional) aerosol microphysics model and a machine-learning tool to develop a Random Forest Regression Model (RFRM) for PNC. We have implemented the PNC RFRM in GISS-ModelE2.1 with a mass-based One-Moment Aerosol module, which is one of CMIP6 models. Compared to the default setting, the GISS-ModelE2.1 simulation based on RFRM reduces the changes of cloud droplet number concentration associated with anthropogenic emissions, and decreases the RF(sub aci) from −1.46 W⋅m(exp −2) to −1.11 W⋅m(exp −2). This work highlights a promising approach based on machine learning to reduce uncertainties of climate models in predicting PNC and RF(sub aci) without compromising their computing efficiency.

Radiative forcing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Current Developments of Carbon Capture Storage and/or Utilization–Looking for Net-Zero Emissions Defined in the Paris Agreement

An essential line of worldwide research towards a sustainable energy future is the materials and processes for carbon dioxide capture and storage. Energy from fossil fuels combustion always generates carbon dioxide, leading to a considerable environmental concern with the values of CO2 produced in the world. The increase in emissions leads to a significant challenge in reducing the quantity of this gas in the atmosphere. Many research areas are involved solving this problem, such as process engineering, materials science, chemistry, waste management, and politics and public engagement. To decrease this problem, green and efficient solutions have been extensively studied, such as Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) processes. In 2015, the Paris Agreement was established, wherein the global temperature increase limit of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels was defined as maximum. To achieve this goal, a global balance between anthropogenic emissions and capture of greenhouse gases in the second half of the 21st century is imperative, i.e., net-zero emissions. Several projects and strategies have been implemented in the existing systems and facilities for greenhouse gas reduction, and new processes have been studied. This review starts with the current data of CO2 emissions to understand the need for drastic reduction. After that, the study reviews the recent progress of CCUS facilities and the implementation of climate-positive solutions, such as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage and Direct Air Capture. Future changes in industrial processes are also discussed.

Regufe, Maria João (ORCID:0000000327748302)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling secondary organic aerosol formation from volatile chemical products

Abstract. Volatile chemical products (VCPs) are commonly used consumer and industrial items that are an important source of anthropogenic emissions. Organic compounds from VCPs evaporate on atmospherically relevant timescales and include many species that are secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors. However, the chemistry leading to SOA, particularly that of intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs), has not been fully represented in regional-scale models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, which tend to underpredict SOA concentrations in urban areas. Here we develop a model to represent SOA formation from VCP emissions. The model incorporates a new VCP emissions inventory and employs three new classes of emissions: siloxanes, oxygenated IVOCs, and nonoxygenated IVOCs. VCPs are estimated to produce 1.67 µg m−3 of noontime SOA, doubling the current model predictions and reducing the SOA mass concentration bias from −75 % to −58 % when compared to observations in Los Angeles in 2010. While oxygenated and nonoxygenated intermediate-volatility VCP species are emitted in similar quantities, SOA formation is dominated by the nonoxygenated IVOCs. Formaldehyde and SOA show similar relationships to temperature and bias signatures, indicating common sources and/or chemistry. This work suggests that VCPs contribute up to half of anthropogenic SOA in Los Angeles and models must better represent SOA precursors from VCPs to predict the urban enhancement of SOA.

Pennington, Elyse A. (ORCID:0000000317362342)↗
NASA NTRS2019

Disentangling the Drivers of the Summertime Ozone‐Temperature Relationship Over the United States

Summertime surface-level ozone (O3 ) is known to vary with temperature, but the relative roles of different processes responsible for causing the O3 -temperature relationship are not well quantified. In this study we use simulations of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model (CTM) to isolate and assess the relative impact of atmospheric transport, chemistry, and emissions on O3 variability, events, and its correlation with temperature. Using observations from CASTNet in the contiguous United States, we show that the GMI CTM reproduces the spatiotemporal variability of O3 and the O3 -temperature relationship during the summer. We primarily focus on the total change in O3 due to a change in temperature (d O3 /d T). In regions with strong positive correlations between temperature and O3 such as the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Great Plains, temperature's association with transport primarily drives d O3 /d T with smaller contributions from temperature-dependent chemistry and anthropogenic emissions. There are regions, however, with near-zero correlation between temperature and O3 , and our findings suggest that transport is still an important driver of O3 variability in these regions, albeit not correlated with temperature. Transport is not directly dependent on temperature but rather is linked through an indirect association, and it is therefore important to understand the exact mechanisms that link transport to O3 and how these mechanisms will change in a warming world.

ozone, temperature, CTM↗
NASA NTRS2020

Global-scale distribution of ozone in the remote troposphere from ATom and HIPPO airborne field missions

Ozone is a key constituent of the troposphere, where it drives photochemical processes, impacts air quality, and acts as a climate forcer. Large-scale in situ observations of ozone commensurate with the grid resolution of current Earth system models are necessary to validate model outputs and satellite retrievals. In this paper, we examine measurements from the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom; four deployments in 2016–2018) and the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO; five deployments in 2009–2011) experiments, two global-scale airborne campaigns covering the Pacific and Atlantic basins. ATom and HIPPO represent the first global-scale, vertically resolved measurements of O3 distributions throughout the troposphere, with HIPPO sampling the atmosphere over the Pacific and ATom sampling both the Pacific and Atlantic. Given the relatively limited temporal resolution of these two campaigns, we first compare ATom and HIPPO ozone data to longer-term observational records to establish the representativeness of our dataset. We show that these two airborne campaigns captured on average 53 %, 54 %, and 38 % of the ozone variability in the marine boundary layer, free troposphere, and upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS), respectively, at nine well-established ozonesonde sites. Additionally, ATom captured the most frequent ozone concentrations measured by regular commercial aircraft flights in the northern Atlantic UTLS. We then use the repeated vertical profiles from these two campaigns to confirm and extend the existing knowledge of tropospheric ozone spatial and vertical distributions throughout the remote troposphere. We highlight a clear hemispheric gradient, with greater ozone in the Northern Hemisphere, consistent with greater precursor emissions and consistent with previous modeling and satellite studies. We also show that the ozone distribution below 8 km was similar in the extra-tropics of the Atlantic and Pacific basins, likely due to zonal circulation patterns. However, twice as much ozone was found in the tropical Atlantic as in the tropical Pacific, due to well-documented dynamical patterns transporting continental air masses over the Atlantic. Finally, we show that the seasonal variability of tropospheric ozone over the Pacific and the Atlantic basins is driven year-round by transported continental plumes and photochemistry, and the vertical distribution is driven by photochemistry and mixing with stratospheric air. This new dataset provides additional constraints for global climate and chemistry models to improve our understanding of both ozone production and loss processes in remote regions, as well as the influence of anthropogenic emissions on baseline ozone.

ATom, aircraft profiles, Atlantic pollution, ozone↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Urbanization on Convection, Lightning, and Precipitation Over the Houston Metropolitan Area: Case Study Simulation From the TRACER Campaign

This study investigates the effects of urbanization, specifically land use change and anthropogenic emissions (AE), on convection, lightning, and surface precipitation for a case of summertime sea‐breeze convection observed over the Houston metropolitan area. The unique capabilities of the NASA‐Unified Weather Research and Forecasting model allows us to conduct a series of sensitivity experiments with complex configurations, in particular including multi‐year land model spin‐up simulations, treatment of aerosols and their precursors, and explicit cloud charging and lightning. The simulation results show that urban land use primarily alters the temporal evolution of convection, lightning, and surface precipitation, leading to late afternoon thunderstorm development. The decrease in latent heat flux from the land surface caused by urbanization weakens convection in the early afternoon, while a condition suitable for convection development is maintained in the late afternoon due to less stabilization of the lower troposphere by the weaker convection development and high sensible heat flux from the surface. On the other hand, anthropogenic aerosols directly enhance convection, lightning, and surface precipitation by increasing convective updrafts due to the aerosol‐induced convective invigoration. The combined effects of urban land use and AE lead to even stronger thunderstorms in the late afternoon, mostly consistent with observations. These results indicate that urbanization increases the probability of late afternoon thunderstorms over the Houston area during the summer season. Advanced weather forecasting models that incorporate these urbanization effects might support sustainable urban planning to better mitigate the impacts of urbanization on local weather and public safety.

Iguchi, T. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (U↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Modeled Seasonal Cycles of Surface N 2 O Fluxes and Atmospheric N 2 O

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone-depleting substance with large and growing anthropogenic emissions. Previous studies identified the influx of N 2 O-depleted air from the stratosphere to partly cause the seasonality in tropospheric N 2 O (aN 2 O), but other contributions remain unclear. Here, we combine surface fluxes from eight land and four ocean models from phase 2 of the Nitrogen/N 2 O Model Intercomparison Project with tropospheric transport modeling to simulate aN 2 O at eight remote air sampling sites for modern and pre-industrial periods. Models show general agreement on the seasonal phasing of zonal-average N 2 O fluxes for most sites, but seasonal peak-to-peak amplitudes differ several-fold across models. The modeled seasonal amplitude of surface aN 2 O ranges from 0.25 to 0.80 ppb (interquartile ranges 21%–52% of median) for land, 0.14–0.25 ppb (17%–68%) for ocean, and 0.28–0.77 ppb (23%–52%) for combined flux contributions. The observed seasonal amplitude ranges from 0.34 to 1.08 ppb for these sites. The stratospheric contributions to aN 2 O, inferred by the difference between the surface-troposphere model and observations, show 16%–126% larger amplitudes and minima delayed by ~1 month compared to Northern Hemisphere site observations. Land fluxes and their seasonal amplitude have increased since the pre-industrial era and are projected to grow further under anthropogenic activities. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of land fluxes for aN 2 O seasonality. Considering the large model spread, in situ aN 2 O observations and atmospheric transport-chemistry models will provide opportunities for constraining terrestrial and oceanic biosphere models, critical for projecting carbon-nitrogen cycles under ongoing global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Intercomparison of SCIAMACHY and OMI Tropospheric NO2 Columns: Observing the Diurnal Evolution of Chemistry and Emissions from Space

Concurrent (August 2006) measurements of tropospheric NO2 columns from OMI aboard Aura (1330 local overpass time) and SCIAMACHY aboard Envisat (1000 local overpass time) offer an opportunity to examine the consistency between the two instruments under tropospheric background conditions and the effect of different observing times. For scenes with tropospheric NO 2 columns <5.0 x 10(exp 15) molecules cm 2, SCIAMACHY and OMI agree within 1.0-2.0 x 10(exp 15) molecules cm 2, consistent with the detection limits of both instruments. We find evidence for a low bias of 0.2 x 10(exp 15) molecules cm 2 in OMI observations over remote oceans. Over the fossil fuel source regions at northern midlatitudes, we find that SCIAMACHY observes up to 40% higher NO2 at 1000 local time (LT) than OMI at 1330 LT. Over biomass burning regions in the tropics, SCIAMACHY observes up to 40% lower NO 2 columns than OMI. These differences are present in the spectral fitting of the data (slant column) and are augmented in the fossil fuel regions and dampened in the tropical biomass burning regions by the expected increase in air mass factor as the mixing depth rises from 1000 to 1330 LT. Using a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem), we show that the 1000-1330 LT decrease in tropospheric NO2 column over fossil fuel source regions can be explained by photochemical loss, dampened by the diurnal cycle of anthropogenic emissions that has a broad daytime maximum. The observed 1000-1330 LT NO2 column increase over tropical biomass burning regions points to a sharp midday peak in emissions and is consistent with a diurnal cycle of emissions derived from geostationary satellite fire counts.

Boersma, K. Folkert↗
NASA NTRS2018

Southeast Atmosphere Studies: Learning from Model-Observation Syntheses

Concentrations of atmospheric trace species in the United States have changed dramatically over the past several decades in response to pollution control strategies, shifts in domestic energy policy and economics, and economic development (and resulting emission changes) elsewhere in the world. Reliable projections of the future atmosphere require models to not only accurately describe current atmospheric concentrations, but to do so by representing chemical, physical and biological processes with conceptual and quantitative fidelity. Only through incorporation of the processes controlling emissions and chemical mechanisms that represent the key transformations among reactive molecules can models reliably project the impacts of future policy, energy and climate scenarios. Efforts to properly identify and implement the fundamental and controlling mechanisms in atmospheric models benefit from intensive observation periods, during which collocated measurements of diverse, speciated chemicals in both the gas and condensed phases are obtained. The Southeast Atmosphere Studies (SAS, including SENEX, SOAS, NOMADSS and SEAC4RS) conducted during the summer of 2013 provided an unprecedented opportunity for the atmospheric modeling community to come together to evaluate, diagnose and improve the representation of fundamental climate and air quality processes in models of varying temporal and spatial scales. This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models. The effort focused primarily on model representation of fundamental atmospheric processes that are essential to the formation of ozone, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and other trace species in the troposphere, with the ultimate goal of understanding the radiative impacts of these species in the southeast and elsewhere. Here we address questions surrounding four key themes: gas-phase chemistry, aerosol chemistry, regional climate and chemistry interactions, and natural and anthropogenic emissions. We expect this review to serve as a guidance for future modeling efforts.

atmospheric chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing carbon nanotube production from carbon dioxide and ethane using bimetallic catalysts

Converting CO 2 into carbon nanotubes (CNTs) offers a promising way for CO 2 utilization and sequestration, potentially mitigating environmental impacts from anthropogenic emissions. This study reports that bimetallic CoFe catalysts can increase CNT production from the reaction of CO 2 and C 2 H 6 by an order of magnitude compared to their monometallic counterparts. The active sites and CNT morphologies are composition-dependent: Co-rich catalysts (Co/Fe ratio ≥ 5) form stable face-centered cubic (fcc) CoFe alloys, producing cylindrical CNTs; Fe-containing catalysts (Co/Fe ≤ 2) favor body-centered cubic (bcc) CoFe alloy upon reduction, which transforms into carbides, resulting in bamboo-like CNTs. Experimental evidence and DFT calculations reveal that adjacent Fe and Co atoms modulate CO and C x H y adsorption, regulating CNT production pathways through the CO Boudouard reaction and C 2 H 6 decomposition. In conclusion, these results highlight the dual benefits of bimetallic catalysts in enhancing CNT yield and controlling CNT morphology through adjustment of catalyst compositions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-based bias-corrected future projections of ozone concentrations from a chemistry-climate model

Reliable projection of future near-surface ozone is crucial for air quality management and health risk assessment. However, potential biases in spatial distribution, magnitude and trends in ozone concentrations simulated by global chemistry-climate models limit their applicability in regional-scale evaluations. In this study, LightGBM, a machine learning (ML) algorithm is applied to correct biases in CESM2-simulated ozone concentrations over China, the United States and Europe and calibrate future ozone projections under two diverse Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios from 2020 to 2060. The ML-based correction significantly improves the spatial distribution and reduces the model bias by 40%–60%. It also reverses the potentially incorrect trend of ozone change under SSP1-2.6 in eastern China. When applying ML-based bias correction to CESM2 future projections, warm season mean ozone concentrations decrease across China, the United States, and Europe by –13.5, –17.9, and –13.7 µg/m³, respectively, between 2020 and 2060 in SSP1-2.6, while they increase by 9.4, 2.0, and 5.2 µg/m³ in SSP5-8.5. Decomposition analysis show that changes in anthropogenic emissions dominate future ozone changes in both scenarios, while strong climate penalty from ozone changes occurs in polluted eastern China and climate benefit is found in western China, the United States and Europe under SSP5-8.5. These findings demonstrate the value of combining ML with chemistry-climate models to produce more accurate air quality projections, thereby informing more effective and region-specific environmental protection strategies.

Chemistry Model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Molecular Characterization of Organosulfate-Dominated Aerosols over Agricultural Fields from the Southern Great Plains by High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry

The molecular composition of organic aerosols, especially for day/nighttime variations of organosulfates above agricultural fields, is not well understood despite profound impacts on regional climate, crop production, air quality, and human health. Here, nanospray desorption electrospray ionization with high-resolution mass spectrometry (nano-DESI-HRMS) is used to interrogate the molecular composition of organic aerosols collected at the Southern Great Plains, located in an agricultural region of Oklahoma. Identified molecular formulae featured carbon, hydrogen, oxygen (CHO), nitrogen (CHNO), and/or sulfur (CHOS, CHNOS), with higher organosulfate proportions during daytime (41%) compared to nighttime (30%). In this work, nighttime aerosols featured increases in CHO, CHNO, and extremely low volatility organic carbon (ELVOC) species. However, due to high relative humidity, the nighttime aerosols phase state was found to be more liquid-like than daytime aerosols using parametrized glass transition temperatures. Aerosol molecular composition from an anthropogenically influenced plume (southerly winds) showed significant increases in CHOS and ELVOC species. By comparison with chamber studies, CHOS species are suspected to be of mixed biogenic and anthropogenic origin, whereas CHNOS species (not identified in the southerly winds) are suggested to predominately be of biogenic origin. Overall, this study provides key insight into organosulfates above agricultural fields, demonstrating dependence upon day/night cycles and episodic anthropogenic emissions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗