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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

Simulation Center for Runaway Electron Avoidance and Mitigation (SCREAM SciDAC) (Technical Final Report)

Runaway electrons can severely damage the plasma facing components on ITER during a major disruption and pose a major risk for tokamak fusion. It has been recognized that an adequate disruption mitigation system (DMS) is essential for the safe operation of ITER. The United States is responsible for the design and implementation of the disruption mitigation system on ITER, and in July 2016 the Simulation Center for Runaway Electron Avoidance and Mitigation (SCREAM) was launched by DOE, in a joint Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) collaboration. SCREAM was a comprehensive theory and simulation SciDAC center that provided physics guidance in the avoidance and mitigation of runaway electrons, and in tandem with domestic and international experiments, helped establish the qualitative and quantitative bases for safe operational scenarios and viable mitigation techniques. The SCREAM center assembled a national team of experts in runaway electron physics, tokamak disruptions, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, and advanced algorithms and computing. The team combined advanced simulation and analysis capability facilitated by direct participation of ASCR SciDAC institutes with theoretical models and code development by FES scientists to focus on the runaway risk for ITER and tokamaks in general. The research scope was focussed on integrated simulations of kinetic runaway electrons, including MHD and fluid models of impurity transport, within a research plan guided by theory. The specific research tasks were (1) establish the fundamental physics of runaway generation, saturation, and dynamical evolution in a tokamak; (2) examine the critical path toward runaway avoidance; and (3) investigate the viability and effectiveness of the leading candidate schemes for runaway mitigation. In all three areas, members of the team carried out scoping studies that established the readiness for rapid and critical advances, especially in the deployment and further development of large-to extreme-scale simulation tools. Our multi-pronged computational approach included (1) relativistic Fokker-Planck solvers with discretization in phase space, (2) self-consistent particle-in-cell techniques, (3) particle-based Monte-Carlo, and (4) MHD-particle hybrid simulations. Cross-check between these different methods provided an additional means for verification and further bolstered the fidelity of our physics prediction. Validation against experimental results brings confidence to the predictive capability for ITER and frequently leads to new ideas for understanding and mitigating the thermal quench driven runaway electron phenomenon.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA's Understanding of Risk in Apollo and Shuttle

Mathematical risk analysis was used in Apollo, but it gave unacceptably pessimistic resultsand was discontinued. Shuttle was designed without using risk analysis, under the assumptionthat good engineering would make it very safe. This approach led to an unnecessarily riskydesign, which directly led to the Shuttle tragedies. Although the Challenger disaster wasdirectly due to a mistaken launch decision, it might have been avoided by a safer design. Theultimate cause of the Shuttle tragedies was the Apollo era decision to abandon risk analysis.

Jones, Harry W.↗

Remote Sensing of In-Flight Icing Conditions: Operational, Meteorological, and Technological Considerations

Remote-sensing systems that map aircraft icing conditions in the flight path from airports or aircraft would allow icing to be avoided and exited. Icing remote-sensing system development requires consideration of the operational environment, the meteorological environment, and the technology available. Operationally, pilots need unambiguous cockpit icing displays for risk management decision-making. Human factors, aircraft integration, integration of remotely sensed icing information into the weather system infrastructures, and avoid-and-exit issues need resolution. Cost, maintenance, power, weight, and space concern manufacturers, operators, and regulators. An icing remote-sensing system detects cloud and precipitation liquid water, drop size, and temperature. An algorithm is needed to convert these conditions into icing potential estimates for cockpit display. Specification development requires that magnitudes of cloud microphysical conditions and their spatial and temporal variability be understood at multiple scales. The core of an icing remote-sensing system is the technology that senses icing microphysical conditions. Radar and microwave radiometers penetrate clouds and can estimate liquid water and drop size. Retrieval development is needed; differential attenuation and neural network assessment of multiple-band radar returns are most promising to date. Airport-based radar or radiometers are the most viable near-term technologies. A radiometer that profiles cloud liquid water, and experimental techniques to use radiometers horizontally, are promising. The most critical operational research needs are to assess cockpit and aircraft system integration, develop avoid-and-exit protocols, assess human factors, and integrate remote-sensing information into weather and air traffic control infrastructures. Improved spatial characterization of cloud and precipitation liquid-water content, drop-size spectra, and temperature are needed, as well as an algorithm to convert sensed conditions into a measure of icing potential. Technology development also requires refinement of inversion techniques. These goals can be accomplished with collaboration among federal agencies including NASA, the FAA, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, NOAA, and the Department of Defense. This report reviews operational, meteorological, and technological considerations in developing the capability to remotely map in-flight icing conditions from the ground and from the air.

Ryerson, Charles C.↗

COBALT: A GN&C Payload for Testing ALHAT Capabilities in Closed-Loop Terrestrial Rocket Flights

The COBALT (CoOperative Blending of Autonomous Landing Technology) payload is being developed within NASA as a risk reduction activity to mature, integrate and test ALHAT (Autonomous precision Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology) systems targeted for infusion into near-term robotic and future human space flight missions. The initial COBALT payload instantiation is integrating the third-generation ALHAT Navigation Doppler Lidar (NDL) sensor, for ultra high-precision velocity plus range measurements, with the passive-optical Lander Vision System (LVS) that provides Terrain Relative Navigation (TRN) global-position estimates. The COBALT payload will be integrated onboard a rocket-propulsive terrestrial testbed and will provide precise navigation estimates and guidance planning during two flight test campaigns in 2017 (one open-loop and closed- loop). The NDL is targeting performance capabilities desired for future Mars and Moon Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL). The LVS is already baselined for TRN on the Mars 2020 robotic lander mission. The COBALT platform will provide NASA with a new risk-reduction capability to test integrated EDL Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) components in closed-loop flight demonstrations prior to the actual mission EDL.

Carson, John M., III↗

Cognitive behavioural therapy targeting cardiac anxiety post-myocardial infarction: results from two sequential pilot studies

Abstract Aims Cardiac anxiety, which is cardiac-related fear and avoidance behaviours, is common following myocardial infarction (MI) and has been associated with increased risk for cardiovascular events. However, there are currently no treatments specifically designed to target cardiac anxiety. The aim of the two pilot studies was to evaluate an exposure-based cognitive behavioural therapy protocol (MI-CBT) targeting cardiac anxiety following MI, assessing feasibility, acceptability, and the intervention's potential for reducing cardiac anxiety and improving health-related quality of life (QoL). Methods and results A series of two sequential, uncontrolled pilot studies were conducted. In Pilot Study 1 (n = 15), MI-CBT was delivered via face-to-face videoconference, while Pilot Study 2 (n = 23) was delivered online. Patients with a history of MI (≥6 months before assessment, type 1 ST- or non-ST-segment elevation MI, and elevated cardiac anxiety as per clinical interview) were included. The interventions lasted 8 weeks and were therapist-led, with key components including exposure to cardiac-related symptoms and reduction of avoidance behaviours. Participants completed self-rated assessments, including the Cardiac Anxiety Questionnaire (CAQ) and the 12-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12), at baseline, post-treatment, and 6-month follow-up. Treatment adherence and satisfaction were high. Cognitive behavioural therapy led to a large reduction in cardiac anxiety, as measured by the CAQ (P < 0.001), and significant improvements in health-related QoL, as measured by the SF-12 (P < 0.001), in both pilot studies. Conclusion These studies suggest that exposure-based CBT is a feasible, acceptable, and promising approach to reduce cardiac anxiety and improve QoL following MI. A randomized controlled trial should be conducted to evaluate the efficacy of the intervention.

Johnsson, Amanda (ORCID:0009000862983934)↗

Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes are posed to have profound impact on forests and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different integrated assessment models (IAMs) by showcasing the spatially explicit exposure of forests to fire weather and the simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed description of the feedback from climate change to forest carbon uptake in IAMs. Few IAMs are currently accounting for feedback mechanisms like loss from fire disturbance. Consequently, many forestation areas proposed by IAM scenarios will be exposed to fire-promoting weather conditions and without costly prevention measures might be object to frequent burning. We conclude that the actual climate mitigation portfolio in IAM scenarios is subject to substantial uncertainty and that the risk of overly optimistic estimates of negative emission potential of forestation should be avoided. As a way forward we propose how to integrate more detailed climate information when modeling climate mitigation pathways heavily relying on forestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic reasoning for intelligent wind shear avoidance

A computerized intelligent cockpit aid can increase flight-crew awareness of wind shear, improving avoidance decisions. The FAA Windshear Training Aid (WTA) provides guidelines for assessing the risk of wind shear encounter from meteorological evidence. Use of these guidelines in the cockpit is complicated by uncertainty surrounding meteorological knowledge of wind shear. Bayesian network representation is discussed as a means of modeling this uncertain knowledge in a computer. A probabilistic model of the WTA guidelines using Bayesian network representation is presented. This model combines evidence from sources of varying reliability and incorporates results from meteorological studies of wind shear. The probabilistic model can provide flight crews with meaningful estimates of risk to aid their decisions, using evidence from a variety of sources and a base of meteorological knowledge.

Stratton, D. Alexander↗

Probabilistic/Fracture-Mechanics Model For Service Life

Computer program makes probabilistic estimates of lifetime of engine and components thereof. Developed to fill need for more accurate life-assessment technique that avoids errors in estimated lives and provides for statistical assessment of levels of risk created by engineering decisions in designing system. Implements mathematical model combining techniques of statistics, fatigue, fracture mechanics, nondestructive analysis, life-cycle cost analysis, and management of engine parts. Used to investigate effects of such engine-component life-controlling parameters as return-to-service intervals, stresses, capabilities for nondestructive evaluation, and qualities of materials.

Watkins, T., Jr.↗

Engineering and Technology Challenges for Active Debris Removal

After more than fifty years of space activities, the near-Earth environment is polluted with man-made orbital debris. The collision between Cosmos 2251 and the operational Iridium 33 in 2009 signaled a potential collision cascade effect, also known as the "Kessler Syndrome", in the environment. Various modelling studies have suggested that the commonly-adopted mitigation measures will not be sufficient to stabilize the future debris population. Active debris removal must be considered to remediate the environment. This paper summarizes the key issues associated with debris removal and describes the technology and engineering challenges to move forward. Fifty-four years after the launch of Sputnik 1, satellites have become an integral part of human society. Unfortunately, the ongoing space activities have left behind an undesirable byproduct orbital debris. This environment problem is threatening the current and future space activities. On average, two Shuttle window panels are replaced after every mission due to damage by micrometeoroid or orbital debris impacts. More than 100 collision avoidance maneuvers were conducted by satellite operators in 2010 to reduce the impact risks of their satellites with respect to objects in the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog. Of the four known accident collisions between objects in the SSN catalog, the last one, collision between Cosmos 2251 and the operational Iridium 33 in 2009, was the most significant. It was the first ever accidental catastrophic destruction of an operational satellite by another satellite. It also signaled the potential collision cascade effect in the environment, commonly known as the "Kessler Syndrome," predicted by Kessler and Cour-Palais in 1978 [1]. Figure 1 shows the historical increase of objects in the SSN catalog. The majority of the catalog objects are 10 cm and larger. As of April 2011, the total objects tracked by the SSN sensors were more than 22,000. However, approximately 6000 of them had yet to be fully processed and entered into the catalog. This population had been dominated by fragmentation debris throughout history. Before the anti-satellite test (ASAT) conducted by China in 2007, the fragmentation debris were almost all explosion fragments. After the ASAT test and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251, the ratio of collision fragments to explosion fragments was about one-to-one. It is expected that accidental collision fragments will further dominate the environment in the future.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗

Differential Evolution Optimization for Targeting Spacecraft Maneuver Plans

Previous analysis identified specific orbital parameters as being safer for conjunction avoidance for the TDRS fleet. With TDRS-9 being considered an at-risk spacecraft, a potential conjunction concern was raised should TDRS-9 fail while at a longitude of 12W. This document summarizes the analysis performed to identify if these specific orbital parameters could be targeted using the remaining drift-termination maneuvers for the relocation of TDRS-9 from 41W longitude to 12W longitude.

Manuever↗

Evaluation of the Simple Safe Site Selection (S4) Hazard Detection Algorithm Using Helicopter Field Test Data

Small scale terrain hazards, such as rocks, slopes, and craters, can pose significant risk to landing spacecraft and rover or payload deployment. Onboard Hazard Detection and Avoidance (HDA) systems scan and analyze the landing area for these hazards in real time during descent, and divert the spacecraft to the safest touchdown site. The computationally efficient Simple Safe Site Selection (S4) algorithm combined with a flash LIDAR is an HDA system geared towards small robotic spacecraft. Rather than creating and analyzing a digital elevation map (DEM) from potentially many overlapping range images, S4 operates directly on a single flash LIDAR image. Extending prior work that has analyzed S4 performance for Mars landing using extensive simulations, this paper evaluates S4 performance using actual flash LIDAR images of an artificial hazard field acquired during a 2014 helicopter field test in Death Valley, CA. In particular, we describe LIDAR characterization and calibration, creation of ground truth elevation and safety maps, creation of ground truth sensor poses, actual S4 algorithm processing, and performance analysis. The results show that the safety cost images produced by S4 are remarkably close to the ground truth safety map (computed offline by an HDA algorithm developed under the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance (ALHAT) project) at significantly reduced computational cost, confirming S4 as a viable candidate algorithm for onboard spacecraft HDA.

Luna, Michael E.↗

Sensor-based Prognostics for Safe Batteries for Electric Aircraft

With a new start awarded under CAS for Fiscal Year 2020, the Sensor-based Prognostics to Avoid Runaway Reactions and Catastrophic Ignition project, or SPARRCI, aims to eliminate safety risks of lithium-ion and next-generation lithium-based batteries. SPARRCI is taking a deeper dive into the inner workings of battery cells by introducing miniature multifunctional sensors within the cells to detect early signs of failure. Combined with nondestructive evaluation techniques to gather complementary battery health data, battery data will be monitored in real-time via prognostics which will ultimately be able to identify when the cell is exhibiting abnormal behavior bordering on failure, with the ability to provide early warning such that the battery may be taken offline prior to catastrophic failure events.

Brianne Demattia↗

Avoiding Human Error in Mission Operations: Cassini Flight Experience

Operating spacecraft is a never-ending challenge and the risk of human error is ever- present. Many missions have been significantly affected by human error on the part of ground controllers. The Cassini mission at Saturn has not been immune to human error, but Cassini operations engineers use tools and follow processes that find and correct most human errors before they reach the spacecraft. What is needed are skilled engineers with good technical knowledge, good interpersonal communications, quality ground software, regular peer reviews, up-to-date procedures, as well as careful attention to detail and the discipline to test and verify all commands that will be sent to the spacecraft. Two areas of special concern are changes to flight software and response to in-flight anomalies. The Cassini team has a lot of practical experience in all these areas and they have found that well-trained engineers with good tools who follow clear procedures can catch most errors before they get into command sequences to be sent to the spacecraft. Finally, having a robust and fault-tolerant spacecraft that allows ground controllers excellent visibility of its condition is the most important way to ensure human error does not compromise the mission.

guidance and control↗

The Future of Arctic Fires: Leveraging Ongoing Activities, New Efforts, and International Cooperation

Fires in the Arctic region are gaining more attention and driving increased concern from the public, the scientific community, and policymakers. An increasing number of scientific projects, collaboration efforts, media coverage, and policy assessments have been and are being implemented and published regarding this emerging and important wildland fire phenomenon. In short, this increased activity comes from the recognition of increasing fire risk and activity close to, within, and impacting the Arctic. There is a need to integrate these numerous and expanding local, national, and international efforts to avoid redundant and overlapping efforts and to focus resources more efficiently. As a response, this report suggests short and long-term goals to respond to the growing fire risk and fire danger in the Arctic. All efforts call for more integrated international collaboration and greater recognition of the importance for Arctic communities to be collaborators and leaders.

Future↗

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions Based on a Bank of Norm-Inequality-Constrained Epoch-State Filters

Sequential probability ratio tests explicitly allow decision makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models 1he null hypothesis 1ha1 the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming highly-elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Carpenter, J. R.↗

Heliostat Consortium: Gap Analysis on State of the Art in Wind Load Design

Wind loads are a major driver of heliostat cost. Standardized methods and tools are needed for a more detailed understanding of the static and dynamic loads of a heliostat design. This will enable cost reduction of wind-dependent heliostats to avoid unnecessarily conservative heliostat designs and increase field efficiency and reliability to reduce the risk of component failures due to high-wind events. Gaps related to wind load include lack of site characterization for wind measurements, insufficient critical load cases for heliostat design, insufficient understanding of turbulence impacts on heliostat tracking error, lack of knowledge on wind load under various heliostat array configurations, and underexplored heliostat field wind-load reduction and operating strategies. Recommended pathway forward is to develop wind load and site characterization guidelines for heliostat design and develop heliostat field wind-load models with optical performance impacts.

aerodynamics↗

Sensor Based Engine Life Calculation: A Probabilistic Perspective

It is generally known that an engine component will accumulate damage (life usage) during its lifetime of use in a harsh operating environment. The commonly used cycle count for engine component usage monitoring has an inherent range of uncertainty which can be overly costly or potentially less safe from an operational standpoint. With the advance of computer technology, engine operation modeling, and the understanding of damage accumulation physics, it is possible (and desirable) to use the available sensor information to make a more accurate assessment of engine component usage. This paper describes a probabilistic approach to quantify the effects of engine operating parameter uncertainties on the thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) life of a selected engine part. A closed-loop engine simulation with a TMF life model is used to calculate the life consumption of different mission cycles. A Monte Carlo simulation approach is used to generate the statistical life usage profile for different operating assumptions. The probabilities of failure of different operating conditions are compared to illustrate the importance of the engine component life calculation using sensor information. The results of this study clearly show that a sensor-based life cycle calculation can greatly reduce the risk of component failure as well as extend on-wing component life by avoiding unnecessary maintenance actions.

Guo, Ten-Huei↗

Dark Forward Electrical Test Techniques Developed for Large-Area Photovoltaic Arrays

Spacecraft photovoltaic arrays (PVA's) must be carefully handled during ground integration processing and transportation to the launch site. Care is exercised to avoid damage that could degrade on-orbit electrical performance. Because of this damage risk, however, PVA's are typically deployed and illuminated with a light source so performance characteristics can be measured prior to launch. For large-area arrays, such as the Mir Cooperative Solar Array (2.7- by 18-m) and the International Space Station PVA blankets (4.6- by 31.7-m), this integrity check becomes resource intensive. Large test support structures are needed to offload the array during deployment in 1g, and large-aperture illumination equipment is required to uniformly illuminate array panels. Significant program time, funds, and manpower must be allocated for this kind of test program. Alternatively, launch site electrical performance tests can be bypassed with an attendant increase in risk.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗