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DOE OSTI2026

APSO-enhanced algebraic derivative estimation approach for real-time traffic flow prediction on critical road sections during wildfire evacuation

In rapid-onset disaster scenarios such as wildfires, evacuation traffic often significantly deviates from historical patterns, rendering conventional data-driven forecasting methods less effective. To address this challenge, we propose an improved algebraic derivative estimation (ADE) incorporating particle swarm optimization (PSO) for real-time traffic flow prediction. Our approach dynamically adjusts the ADE prediction time window at each step by minimizing a cost function based on the mean and variance of accumulated forecasting errors within the window, thereby balancing bias and variability. We evaluate the method using traffic data from the January 2025 California wildfires, focusing on key road segments critical for large-scale evacuations. The results demonstrate that our approach surpasses established machine learning and deep learning models—XGBoost, LSTM, and GRU—in predictive accuracy and maintains high computational efficiency. Notably, the proposed method eliminates the need for offline model training. Moreover, rapid PSO-based tuning enables real-time deployment, which provides a crucial advantage in scenarios where evacuation timings and road closures change dynamically. In conclusion, these findings highlight the benefits of the PSO-enhanced ADE framework for emergency traffic management, where rapid, data-sparse forecasts are essential for effective evacuation planning.

Algebraic derivative estimation↗

DOE OSTI2023

DeepONet-grid-UQ: A trustworthy deep operator framework for predicting the power grid’s post-fault trajectories

This paper proposes a novel data-driven method for the reliable prediction of the power grid’s post-fault trajectories, i.e., the power grid’s dynamic response after a disturbance or fault. Here, the proposed method is based on the recently proposed concept of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets). Unlike traditional neural networks that learn to approximate functions, DeepONets are designed to approximate nonlinear operators, i.e., mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces. Under this operator framework, we design a novel and efficient DeepONet that (i) takes as inputs the trajectories collected before and during the fault and (ii) outputs the predicted post-fault trajectories. In addition, we endow our method with the much-needed ability to balance efficiency with reliable/trustworthy predictions via uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose and compare two novel methods that enable quantifying the predictive uncertainty. First, we propose a Bayesian DeepONet (B-DeepONet) that uses stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution of the DeepONet trainable parameters. Then, we design a Probabilistic DeepONet (Prob-DeepONet) that uses a probabilistic training strategy to enable quantifying uncertainty at virtually no extra computational cost. Finally, we validate the proposed methods’ predictive power and uncertainty quantification capability using the New York-New England power grid model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Computational Framework for Machine-Learning-Enabled 13 C Fluxomics

13 C metabolic flux analysis (MFA) has emerged as a powerful tool for synthetic biology. This optimization-based approach suffers long computation time and unstable solutions depending on the initial guess. Here, we develop a machine-learning-based framework for 13 C fluxomics. Specifically, training and test data sets are generated by metabolic network decomposition and flux sampling, in which flux ratios at metabolic nodes and simulated labeling patterns of metabolites are used as training targets and features, respectively. To improve prediction accuracy and simplify the model, automated processes are developed for flux ratio selection based on solvability and feature screening based on importance. We found that predictive performance can be significantly improved using both amino acids and central carbon metabolites in comparison with amino acids alone. Together with measured external fluxes, the predicted flux ratios determine the mass balance system, yielding global flux distributions. This approach is validated by flux estimation using both simulated and experimental data in comparison with canonical 13 C MFA. The approach represents a reliable fluxomics method readily applicable to high-throughput metabolic phenotyping, which highlights the advances of intelligent learning algorithms in synthetic biology, specifically in the Test and Learn stage of the Design-Build-Test-Learn cycle.

13C metabolic flux analysis↗

DOE OSTI2025

Gold-Standard Chemical Database 137 (GSCDB137): A Diverse Set of Accurate Energy Differences for Assessing and Developing Density Functionals

We present GSCDB137, a rigorously curated benchmark library of 137 data sets (8377 entries) covering main-group and transition-metal reaction energies and barrier heights, (intra- and intermolecular) noncovalent interactions, dipole moments, polarizabilities, electric-field response energies, and vibrational frequencies. Legacy data from GMTKN55 and MGCDB84 have been updated to today's best reference values; redundant or low-quality points were removed, and many new, property-focused sets were added. Testing 29 popular density functional approximations (DFAs) confirms the expected Jacob's-ladder hierarchy overall but also reveals notable exceptions: functional performance for frequencies and electric-field properties correlates poorly with that for other ground-state energetics. ωB97M-V and ωB97X-V are the most balanced hybrid meta-GGA and hybrid GGA, respectively; B97M-V and revPBE-D4 lead the meta-GGA and GGA classes. Double hybrids lower mean errors by about 30% versus their hybrid analogues but demand careful frozen-core, basis set, and spin contamination treatment. GSCDB137 offers a comprehensive, openly documented platform for rigorous validation of DFA and universal machine learning potentials, and training of the next generation of exchange-correlation functionals.

Liang, Jiashu [University of California, Berkeley,↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multirobot Collaborative Pursuit Target Robot by Improved MADDPG

Policy formulation is one of the main problems in multirobot systems, especially in multirobot pursuit-evasion scenarios, where both sparse rewards and random environment changes bring great difficulties to find better strategy. Existing multirobot decision-making methods mostly use environmental rewards to promote robots to complete the target task that cannot achieve good results. This paper proposes a multirobot pursuit method based on improved multiagent deep deterministic policy gradient (MADDPG), which solves the problem of sparse rewards in multirobot pursuit-evasion scenarios by combining the intrinsic reward and the external environment. The state similarity module based on the threshold constraint is as a part of the intrinsic reward signal output by the intrinsic curiosity module, which is used to balance overexploration and insufficient exploration, so that the agent can use the intrinsic reward more effectively to learn better strategies. The simulation experiment results show that the proposed method can improve the reward value of robots and the success rate of the pursuit task significantly. The intuitive change is obviously reflected in the real-time distance between the pursuer and the escapee, the pursuer using the improved algorithm for training can get closer to the escapee more quickly, and the average following distance also decreases.

Zhou, Xiao↗

DOE OSTI2020

Accelerated Modeling of Lithium Diffusion in Solid State Electrolytes using Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract Previous efforts to understand structure‐function relationships in high ionic conductivity materials for solid state batteries have predominantly relied on density functional theory (DFT‐) based ab initio molecular dynamics (MD). Such simulations, however, are computationally demanding and cannot be reasonably applied to large systems containing more than a hundred atoms. Here, an artificial neural network (ANN) is trained to accelerate the calculation of high accuracy atomic forces and energies used during such MD simulations. After carefully training a robust ANN for four and five element systems, nearly identical lithium ion diffusivities are obtained for Li 10 GeP 2 S 12 (LGPS) when benchmarking the ANN‐MD results with DFT‐MD. Applying the ANN‐MD approach, the effect of chlorine doping on the lithium diffusivity is calculated in an LGPS‐like structure and it is found that a dopant concentration of 1.3% maximizes ionic conductivity. The optimal concentration balances the competing consequences of effective atomic radii and dielectric constants on lithium diffusion and agrees with the experimental composition. Performing simulations at the resolution necessary to model experimentally relevant and optimal concentrations would be infeasible with traditional DFT‐MD. Systems that require a large number of simulated atoms can be studied more efficiently while maintaining high accuracy with the proposed ANN‐MD framework.

Rao, Karun K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamical Sketching for Enhanced Communication Efficiency in Federated Learning

Federated learning (FL) has revolutionized distributed machine learning by enabling collaborative model training without sharing local data. However, communication efficiency and privacy guarantees remain significant challenges. This paper introduces a dynamic sketching mechanism in FL, optimizing the trade-off between communication efficiency and model accuracy. By dynamically selecting the sketch matrix size, our approach adapts to the evolving characteristics of the data and the model, ensuring optimal performance across diverse scenarios. We leverage Bayesian optimization to systematically tune the sketch parameters, achieving an effective balance between resource efficiency and model performance. Experimental results on the MNIST dataset using a convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture validate the proposed method's efficiency and scalability. Our dynamic sketching approach significantly outperforms fixed-size sketching techniques, achieving higher compression ratios (up to 62x) and providing better privacy guarantees while maintaining high model accuracy. These findings highlight the robustness and versatility of our approach and make it a valuable solution for privacy-preserving, communication-efficient federated learning.

Afrose, Sharmin [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Learning broken symmetries with approximate invariance

Recognizing symmetries in data allows for significant boosts in neural network training, which is especially important where training data are limited. In many cases, however, the exact underlying symmetry is present only in an idealized dataset, and is broken in actual data, due to asymmetries in the detector, or varying response resolution as a function of particle momentum. Standard approaches, such as data augmentation or equivariant networks fail to represent the nature of the full, broken symmetry, effectively overconstraining the response of the neural network. We propose a learning model which balances the generality and asymptotic performance of unconstrained networks with the rapid learning of constrained networks. This is achieved through a dual-subnet structure, where one network is constrained by the symmetry and the other is not, along with a learned symmetry factor. In a simplified toy example that demonstrates violation of Lorentz invariance, our model learns as rapidly as symmetry constrained networks but escapes its performance limitations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

High Compression in Palladium Alloy Metal Foil Pumps

Metal foil pumps (MFPs) are key components in the direct internal recycling inner fuel cycle loop for the recovery of hydrogen isotopes from deuterium-tritium fusion exhaust. Operating under vacuum conditions, they utilize superthermal hydrogen as the feed gas in a process called superpermeation. A notable feature of MFPs is their ability to pump against a pressure gradient. This study examines the compression capabilities of PdAg and PdCu MFPs at low temperatures with a constant feed pressure of 10 Pa. At 75°C, compression ratios exceeding 200 were readily achieved, with downstream pressures exceeding 4500 Pa using PdCu. For both alloys, net fluxes decreased by only ~15% at downstream pressures of 1000 Pa, which offers potential simplifications for the downstream pump train. Performance declined markedly when the temperature was elevated to 200°C. Pump curves were constructed and advocated as the most appropriate manner to assess MFP performance. Separate pressure-driven-permeation experiments at relevant conditions were conducted, providing a direct measurement of the hydrogen dissociation constant $k$ d , which was found to be in good agreement with the previous literature. Further, these measurements were used to predict pump curves and maximum compression ratios by balancing superpermeation with pressure-driven permeation, achieving excellent agreement with experiment. Last, experiments using asymmetric MFPs revealed the detrimental impact that surface impurities have on performance in this system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nature of innovations affecting photovoltaic system costs

Innovations improve technology costs through various kinds of engineering advancements, including changes to materials choices and device or process designs. Understanding how these innovations relate to cost change can reveal aspects of the process of technology evolution, yet developing such understanding is often not possible with a strictly quantitative approach due to data limitations. In this paper we develop a hybrid quantitative-qualitative framework for relating specific innovations to cost change by using the variables in a quantitative technology cost change model as an organizing principle. We demonstrate this framework by applying it to the cost decline in photovoltaic (PV) systems over the last five decades. This framework generates new understanding of a set of innovations that contributed to PV modules’ sustained cost decline and the more modest trends observed in balance-of-system (BOS) costs. The results show the great diversity of innovations that affected PV costs, drawing on wide-ranging fields of expertise within scientific research and practice. We find that there are differences in the characteristics of innovations that reduced the cost of PV modules compared to innovations influencing BOS costs. Numerous module innovations reduced costs by advancing manufacturing tools and processes that improved material quality. Many BOS innovations reduced costs through a combination of component design changes, integration, automation, digitalization, and standardization. Overall, most innovations in our sample affected PV hardware. However, some also target ‘soft technologies’ such as task durations through innovations like fast-track permitting, which require improved collaboration and process streamlining. This framework also provides insight into the nature of knowledge spillovers between technologies. Both module and BOS hardware innovations show the benefits of PV’s position within an ‘ecosystem’ of continuously advancing technologies in many industries, in particular semiconductors and electronics, and also point to the importance of public institutions for accelerating testing, permitting, and training.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

N 2 Onet: a global collaborative network facilitating advances in measurement, modeling, and mitigation of agricultural soil nitrous oxide emissions

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer supports global food production, but its use and overuse drive emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent and long-lived greenhouse gas. Understanding the drivers of N 2 O fluxes remains elusive, making it difficult to predict emissions in time and space and to develop and evaluate ways to lower emissions through management. Major scientific uncertainties underlying the understanding of the drivers of N 2 O fluxes identified in a workshop of N 2 O emissions experts include poor process-based understanding of controls on soil N 2 O emissions in the field; insufficient data to reduce uncertainty in N 2 O budgets from the field to regional scales, including N 2 O emission measurements and importantly, field-scale N balances; and high uncertainty in model predictions of soil N 2 O emissions across environmental and management conditions. To reduce these uncertainties, we present the concept of N 2 Onet, a global collaborative initiative to accelerate advances in N 2 O measurement, analyses, and mitigation. N 2 Onet will serve as an observational network of supersites with multi-scale measurements; a database hub for N 2 O flux and ancillary data; and a catalyst for community building, information sharing, and training. By coalescing and coordinating the global community of researchers, N 2 Onet will provide a roadmap for reducing N 2 O emissions from agriculture worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Web-Based Tools for Data-Informed Remedy Optimization: Software Theory and User Guide

This report documents the development and application of two web-based decision-support tools for pump-and-treat (P&T) groundwater remediation systems: PTOLEMY (Pump-and-Treat Optimized Location Evaluation to Maximize Yields) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Pump-and-Treat Implementation, Management, & Assessment). These tools enhance remedy design and management by leveraging advanced computational methods – specifically deep learning and multi-objective optimization – within a user-friendly platform. By integrating data-driven models with established hydrogeological knowledge, PTOLEMY and OPTIMA enable more efficient evaluation of well placement and operational strategies, helping site managers balance multiple remediation objectives under complex conditions. Both tools are implemented as modules within the SOCRATES (Suite Of Comprehensive Rapid Analysis Tools for Environmental Sites) web platform, which provides data access, visualization, and analytics to support remedy optimization across sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management complex. PTOLEMY is a rapid screening module designed to identify promising locations for new extraction wells. It employs a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) trained on high-fidelity simulation data to predict the relative performance (in terms of contaminant mass recovery) of potential well sites. Through an interactive web interface, PTOLEMY visualizes the probability of high performance across a site, highlighting areas where an extraction well is likely to yield above-threshold contaminant removal over a multi-year period. PTOLEMY’s map-based displays and exportable results support transparent communication of screening analyses. By focusing attention on the most favorable candidate locations, the tool augments traditional engineering judgment and physics-based modeling, providing a data informed basis for subsequent detailed evaluations. OPTIMA is a multi objective optimization module designed to find wellfield layouts and operating schedules that meet various cleanup goals. It quickly evaluates thousands of candidate setups – combinations of well locations, timing, and rates – and returns a small set of best trade-off options for comparison. At its core, OPTIMA uses a U-Net-based surrogate model – a deep-learning emulator of a groundwater flow and transport simulator – to dramatically accelerate scenario evaluations. Coupling this fast surrogate with the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) evolutionary algorithm, OPTIMA explores a wide decision space of well locations and schedules to identify Pareto-optimal solutions that trade off key objectives (e.g., minimizing cleanup time, maximizing contaminant mass removal, and minimizing plume extent). The tool outputs a family of optimal configurations and visualizes their trade-offs (Pareto frontiers of cleanup metrics and maps of optimized well placements). Site managers can use these results to understand the range of viable strategies and to select candidate designs for more detailed verification. OPTIMA is currently under active development and not yet fully released; this guide provides early documentation to support planning and gather user feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Brain‐age prediction: Systematic evaluation of site effects, and sample age range and size

Abstract Structural neuroimaging data have been used to compute an estimate of the biological age of the brain (brain‐age) which has been associated with other biologically and behaviorally meaningful measures of brain development and aging. The ongoing research interest in brain‐age has highlighted the need for robust and publicly available brain‐age models pre‐trained on data from large samples of healthy individuals. To address this need we have previously released a developmental brain‐age model. Here we expand this work to develop, empirically validate, and disseminate a pre‐trained brain‐age model to cover most of the human lifespan. To achieve this, we selected the best‐performing model after systematically examining the impact of seven site harmonization strategies, age range, and sample size on brain‐age prediction in a discovery sample of brain morphometric measures from 35,683 healthy individuals (age range: 5–90 years; 53.59% female). The pre‐trained models were tested for cross‐dataset generalizability in an independent sample comprising 2101 healthy individuals (age range: 8–80 years; 55.35% female) and for longitudinal consistency in a further sample comprising 377 healthy individuals (age range: 9–25 years; 49.87% female). This empirical examination yielded the following findings: (1) the accuracy of age prediction from morphometry data was higher when no site harmonization was applied; (2) dividing the discovery sample into two age‐bins (5–40 and 40–90 years) provided a better balance between model accuracy and explained age variance than other alternatives; (3) model accuracy for brain‐age prediction plateaued at a sample size exceeding 1600 participants. These findings have been incorporated into CentileBrain ( https://centilebrain.org/#/brainAGE2 ), an open‐science, web‐based platform for individualized neuroimaging metrics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward equitable environmental exposure modeling through convergence of data, open, and citizen sciences: an example of air pollution exposure modeling amidst increasing wildfire smoke

Exposure modeling is critical in environmental epidemiology and human health but may face challenges (e.g., skewed data, unequal error, context-insensitive validation, and computational demands). Modeling decisions reflect the intended use of the models and the values that modelers prioritize. We aimed to provide a conceptual framework and machine learning (ML) modeling protocols that address these issues. With 500m-gridded hourly PM 2.5 and O 3 levels in Illinois before, during, and after the 2023 Canadian wildfire season as a motivating example, we conducted modeling experiments to evaluate modeling methods, guided by three domains we propose based on theories of science: 1) Data Diversity, leveraging open and citizen science data to enhance inclusivity, parsimony, and representativeness; 2) Equitable Accuracy, ensuring fairly distributed uncertainties across subpopulations; and 3) Sustainable Modeling, balancing accuracy with reducing computational demands to promote accessibility for under-resourced researchers. Here, we found that ML with publicly available data can achieve high accuracy. Depending on methods, performance may vary substantially, even with identical input data. Large but skewed data may reduce performance. Misuse of cross-validation protocols can underestimate prediction error; although we observed R 2 s of ∼98 %, the modeled estimates varied significantly, indicating the need for careful model validation. By using new modeling protocols including representativeness-considered training and validation data and a new loss function, we achieved high agreement between estimates and ground-based measurements (e.g., R 2 = ∼90 % for PM 2.5 ; ∼80 % for O 3 ), equally distributed errors across sociodemographic strata and urban–rural divides, and reduction in computation time—from several weeks or months to a few days.

Exposure assessment↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model-Free Building Temperature Control and Power Allocation Under Measurement Time Delays

Taking a step towards a greener planet has created an increased need for a higher integration of renewable energy resources into the electric grid. Nonetheless, the intermittency and uncertainty associated with renewable generation have slowed down this integration. Demand response (DR) has been recently adopted to address this challenge by utilizing demand side flexibility and enabling the participation of many grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs). However, existing DR methods require significant modeling and/or training efforts and are computationally expensive. To address the aforementioned issues, we propose a model-free control (MFC)-based strategy that is robust to the time delays in the temperature measurements of the thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs). It assigns to each GEB a local controller to maintain the TCLs’ temperatures within desired comfort levels, while the load aggregator (LA) allocates the assigned reference power provided by the distribution system operator (DSO) to support a specific grid service, such as demand peak reduction, load shifting, balancing supply and demand, and consuming the solar photovoltaic power locally. We investigate the effects of such loss of information on the local control action as well as on meeting the power allocation constraint. We conclude that, for an appropriate choice of design parameters, the proposed MFC controller is satisfactorily robust to measurement time delays.

Telsang, Bhagyashri↗

DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Forecasting with Federated LSTM to Plan Energy Sharing in a Community Microgrid

Energy balancing in microgrids is a key enabler of resilience. Community microgrids located close to each other have the added benefit of networking and sharing surplus energy, if available. Such complex decision-making runs on optimization that requires reliable short-term (up to very-short-term) forecasts of energy generation and consumption for scheduling or trading. Each microgrid may also opt to not expose their sensitive data such as consumption patterns of individual businesses or residences. This paper investigates a federated approach to dayahead forecasting that trains naive long short-term memory (LSTM) at each business in a microgrid and aggregates weights at the microgrid controller using proximal regularization. This approach ensures that the controller has access only to energy surplus/deficit and not the actual generation or consumption values, avoiding unwanted exposure of sensitive data. A community microgrid in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico with 3 businesses is selected as a case study with a laboratory-scale computing setup. A central LSTM forecaster, where sensitive data from businesses are aggregated at the controller, is implemented as a baseline for qualifying the results. This work serves as a proof-of-concept for scaling the approach to networked and nested microgrids with more complex control options.

Sundararajan, Aditya [ORNL] (ORCID:000000033577854↗

DOE OSTI2023

Smart Preprocessing & Robust Integration Emulator

To achieve the desired particle size of biomass feedstocks during preprocessing for trouble-free handling and conversion to produce biofuels and bioproducts, the raw materials must undergo a crucial milling process. The particle size of biomass plays a critical role in subsequent biofuel manufacturing, where a larger area-to-volume ratio facilitates efficient synthesis while balancing the impact of moisture on biomass storage. To optimize biofuel production efficiency and overcome these challenges, it is imperative to accurately predict the particle size distribution (PSD) of the biomass in the design of efficient preprocessing systems. The population balance model (PBM), upon empirical calibration and validation, can provide rapid prediction of post-milling PSD of granular biomass. However, PSD has limitations related to mass conservation and the absence of moisture considerations. To overcome these drawbacks, a deep learning model called the enhanced deep neural operator (DNO+) is implemented in the code. This model not only retains the capabilities of the PBM in handling complex mapping functions but also incorporates additional factors influencing the system. By considering various experimental conditions such as sieve size and moisture content, the trained DNO+ model can effectively predict the PSD after milling for any given feed PSD. To further reduce the reliance on experimental data, the PBM is integrated into the DNO+ model, resulting in a physics-informed DNO+ (PIDNO+). The PIDNO+ model addresses the non-conservation of quality exhibited by the PBM while inheriting the advantages of the DNO+ model in considering multiple influencing factors. Moreover, the PIDNO+ model significantly reduces the amount of data required for model training. Both deep learning models, i.e., DNO+ and PIDNO+, are excellent in predictive performance, offering swift and accurate machine learning-based predictions. The use of this code that contains these models will assist in guiding the proper milling equipment selection and operational conditions to achieve the desired biomass particle sizes, ensuring the efficiency of subsequent biofuel and bioproduct production processes.

Xia, Yidong [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idah↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Comparative Study of Physics‐Informed and Data‐Driven Neural Networks for Compound Flood Simulation at River‐Ocean Interfaces: A Case Study of Hurricane Irene

Simulating compound flooding (CF) at the river-ocean interface within large-scale Earth System Models (ESMs) presents significant challenges due to complex interactions between river discharge, storm surge, and tides. This study assesses the comparative advantages of physics-informed and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches for enhancing local ESM performance. We systematically compare data-driven neural network models (i.e., CNNs, U-Net, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit), and physics-informed neural network (PINN) models, including vanilla PINN and a finite-difference-based PINN (FD-PINN). Specifically, FD-PINN is introduced to enhance computational efficiency, accelerating vanilla PINNs by ∼6.5 times while improving accuracy. To enhance data-driven model training, a new data-generation approach is developed to sample historical fluvial and coastal flood events, which ensures a robust data set for extreme event prediction. The models are evaluated using a realistic one-dimensional river domain extracted from an ESM's river mesh and the Hurricane Irene event as an independent test case. Results show that FD-PINN achieves accurate predictions with significantly reduced computational costs relative to vanilla PINNs. Among data-driven models, the best overall performance is achieved by a CNN-LSTM hybrid, which balances accuracy and efficiency. While a fully connected CNN (CNN-FC) provides the best accuracy, it incurs high computational cost. Architectures lacking strong temporal modeling tend to underperform on unseen events. These findings highlight the importance of sequence-aware designs for robust generalization. This study reveals the trade-offs between physics-informed and data-driven models and proposes an adaptive hybrid framework for integrating ML into ESMs to enhance local flood simulations.

Earth Systems Modeling↗