Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “choice modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

Comparison of U.S. and Russian Slow Crack Growth Data and Models

Both the US and Russian space programs use similar predictive models for design of fused silica windows on the International space station. The Russian model can be derived from the power expression for slow crack growth (SCG) or “static fatigue.” The US uses both power and exponential models. Despite the similarity of models and data fitting approach (linear regression and right censoring), different SCG parameters have been derived by US and Russian parties for the same material (Russian fused silica) tested in a similar manner. The difference appears to be related to the use of short-term strength data along with the longer-term static fatigue data, with the power law parameter n being very sensitive to the conversion of strength data into equivalent static data. This hybrid approach is feasible if strength data is measured with a constant stress rate and is appropriately converted to a static equivalent. More research into the approach is needed. However, because of the nonlinear behavior of fused silica in log(v) – log(K(I) ) space and the sensitivity of parameter estimation to fit range, the exponential model is a better choice regardless of test method. Functions are given to convert parameters from the Russian model to those in the US model. However, accurate conversion is hampered by the lack of inert strength data. When the same test technique is used, US and Russian materials exhibit very similar parameters.

Silica, strength, impact, crack growth, windows, I↗

Determining Ice-Sheet Uplift Surrounding Subglacial Lakes with a Viscous Plate Model

We develop a viscous model of plate bending suitable for studying ice-sheet flexure due to subglacial lake filling and draining, and apply this model to determine the area of ice-sheet uplift surrounding a subglacial lake. The choice of a viscous model reflects our interest in Antarctic subglacial lakes, which can fill and drain on time scales of months to decades. Experiments with idealized lake shapes show that the size of the uplift area relative to lake area depends on subglacial water pressure and ice-sheet thickness, with the viscous material parameters scaling the magnitude of uplift rate within this area. The water pressure therefore has a strong control on the evolution of the lake shape and related subglacial hydrological development, but is not yet well constrained by observations. Due to the likelihood that ice flexure will affect subglacial lake filling and draining, we suggest that the insights of this study should be applied to development of a realistic ice sheet-hydrological coupled model.

ice sheets↗

Analysis of a water table simulation of a transpirationally cooled nozzle

Two flow models were formulated: for a no-mixing and a complete-mixing boundary layer. The approach taken assumes inviscid flow and constant pressure in the transverse direction. The models are simple enough so that extending them to apply to a gas nozzle, including heat transfer and density differences, should be possible. Both models predict experimental photographic data with similar results; but inherent two dimensional and parallax errors preclude choice of the best model. In general, the boundary layer thickens rapidly near the start of injection because of low acceleration forces; it thins near the throat because of high acceleration forces. The transpiration fluid increases the radius of curvature near the throat and decreases the divergence angle of the free flow downstream of the throat.

Kascak, A. F.↗

KRESKA: A compression system for small and very large images

An effective lossless compression system for grayscale images is presented using finite context variable order Markov models. A new method to accurately estimate the probability of the escape symbol is proposed. The choice of the best model order and rules for selecting context pixels are discussed. Two context precision and two symbol precision techniques to handle noisy image data with Markov models are introduced. Results indicate that finite context variable order Markov models lead to effective lossless compression systems for small and very large images. The system achieves higher compression ratios than some of the better known image compression techniques such as lossless JPEG, JBIG, or FELICS.

Ohnesorge, Krystyna W.↗

CFD Simulations of the Space Launch System Ascent Aerodynamics and Booster Separation

This paper presents details of Computational Fluid Dynamic modeling of the Space Launch System during ascent. The primary focus of the paper is the flow simulation of the vehicle during ascent using the Overflow Navier-Stokes code. Computations of 739 first-stage flight conditions covering a range of Mach numbers, angles of attack, and roll angles were computed. The overset grid system contained 375 million grid points, and over 28 mil- lion CPU hours were used in the simulations. The simulations were run on the Pleiades supercomputer at the NASA Advanced Supercomputer Center at Ames Research Center. The data products from this work include integrated line-loads, surface pressure coefficients, venting pressures, and protuberance air-loads. Detailed comparisons were made of the aerodynamic performance predicted by Overflow and the wind-tunnel derived aero- dynamic database. A small number of the cases were run with two different turbulence models and with two differencing schemes. These results were used to quantify the sensitivity to the choice of the turbulence model and to the differencing scheme. The paper also introduces an effort to use the inviscid, unstructured Cartesian solver Cart3D to compute the aerodynamics during booster separation. Adaptive mesh refinement is being used to enable accurate simulations of sixteen booster-separation-motor plumes. The use of this tool is explored in preparation for building a booster-separation aerodynamic database.

Ascent Aerodynamics↗

Nonconservative force model parameter estimation strategy for TOPEX/Poseidon precision orbit determination

The TOPEX/Poseidon spacecraft was launched on August 10, 1992 to study the Earth's oceans. To achieve maximum benefit from the altimetric data it is to collect, mission requirements dictate that TOPEX/Poseidon's orbit must be computed at an unprecedented level of accuracy. To reach our pre-launch radial orbit accuracy goals, the mismodeling of the radiative nonconservative forces of solar radiation, Earth albedo an infrared re-radiation, and spacecraft thermal imbalances cannot produce in combination more than a 6 cm rms error over a 10 day period. Similarly, the 10-day drag modeling error cannot exceed 3 cm rms. In order to satisfy these requirements, a 'box-wing' representation of the satellite has been developed in which, the satellite is modelled as the combination of flat plates arranged in the shape of a box and a connected solar array. The radiative/thermal nonconservative forces acting on each of the eight surfaces are computed independently, yielding vector accelerations which are summed to compute the total aggregate effect on the satellite center-of-mass. Select parameters associated with the flat plates are adjusted to obtain a better representation of the satellite acceleration history. This study analyzes the estimation of these parameters from simulated TOPEX/Poseidon laser data in the presence of both nonconservative and gravity model errors. A 'best choice' of estimated parameters is derived and the ability to meet mission requirements with the 'box-wing' model evaluated.

Luthcke, S. B.↗

Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) Technology Tool Box (TTB)

The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) is a decision support tool designed to aid program managers and strategic planners in determining how to invest technology research and development dollars. It is an Excel-based modeling package that allows a user to build complex space architectures and evaluate the impact of various technology choices. ATLAS contains system models, cost and operations models, a campaign timeline and a centralized technology database. Technology data for all system models is drawn from a common database, the ATLAS Technology Tool Box (TTB). The TTB provides a comprehensive, architecture-independent technology database that is keyed to current and future timeframes.

Doyle, Monica↗

Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2007 (Earth-GRAM07) Applications for the NASA Constellation Program

Engineering models of the atmosphere are used extensively by the aerospace community for design issues related to vehicle ascent and descent. The Earth Global Reference Atmosphere Model version 2007 (Earth-GRAM07) is the latest in this series and includes a number of new features. Like previous versions, Earth-GRAM07 provides both mean values and perturbations for density, temperature, pressure, and winds, as well as monthly- and geographically-varying trace constituent concentrations. From 0 km to 27 km, thermodynamics and winds are based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) climatology. For altitudes between 20 km and 120 km, the model uses data from the Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP). Above 120 km, EarthGRAM07 now provides users with a choice of three thermosphere models: the Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET-2007) model; the Jacchia-Bowman 2006 thermosphere model (JB2006); and the Naval Research Labs Mass Spectrometer, Incoherent Scatter Radar Extended Model (NRL MSIS E-OO) with the associated Harmonic Wind Model (HWM-93). In place of these datasets, Earth-GRAM07 has the option of using the new 2006 revised Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) data, the earlier (1983) RRA data, or the user may also provide their own data as an auxiliary profile. Refinements of the perturbation model are also discussed which include wind shears more similar to those observed at the Kennedy Space Center than the previous version Earth-GRAM99.

Leslie, Fred W.↗

Modeling Errors in Daily Precipitation Measurements: Additive or Multiplicative?

The definition and quantification of uncertainty depend on the error model used. For uncertainties in precipitation measurements, two types of error models have been widely adopted: the additive error model and the multiplicative error model. This leads to incompatible specifications of uncertainties and impedes intercomparison and application.In this letter, we assess the suitability of both models for satellite-based daily precipitation measurements in an effort to clarify the uncertainty representation. Three criteria were employed to evaluate the applicability of either model: (1) better separation of the systematic and random errors; (2) applicability to the large range of variability in daily precipitation; and (3) better predictive skills. It is found that the multiplicative error model is a much better choice under all three criteria. It extracted the systematic errors more cleanly, was more consistent with the large variability of precipitation measurements, and produced superior predictions of the error characteristics. The additive error model had several weaknesses, such as non constant variance resulting from systematic errors leaking into random errors, and the lack of prediction capability. Therefore, the multiplicative error model is a better choice.

Modeling↗

Geospace Environment Modeling 2008-2009 Challenge: Ground Magnetic Field Perturbations

Acquiring quantitative metrics!based knowledge about the performance of various space physics modeling approaches is central for the space weather community. Quantification of the performance helps the users of the modeling products to better understand the capabilities of the models and to choose the approach that best suits their specific needs. Further, metrics!based analyses are important for addressing the differences between various modeling approaches and for measuring and guiding the progress in the field. In this paper, the metrics!based results of the ground magnetic field perturbation part of the Geospace Environment Modeling 2008 2009 Challenge are reported. Predictions made by 14 different models, including an ensemble model, are compared to geomagnetic observatory recordings from 12 different northern hemispheric locations. Five different metrics are used to quantify the model performances for four storm events. It is shown that the ranking of the models is strongly dependent on the type of metric used to evaluate the model performance. None of the models rank near or at the top systematically for all used metrics. Consequently, one cannot pick the absolute winner : the choice for the best model depends on the characteristics of the signal one is interested in. Model performances vary also from event to event. This is particularly clear for root!mean!square difference and utility metric!based analyses. Further, analyses indicate that for some of the models, increasing the global magnetohydrodynamic model spatial resolution and the inclusion of the ring current dynamics improve the models capability to generate more realistic ground magnetic field fluctuations.

Pulkkinen, A.↗

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling: A Case Study of Dry/Wet Extremes in the U. S. Southern Great Plains

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature and moisture states and fluxes. In turn, these interactions regulate the strength of the connection between surface moisture and precipitation in a coupled system. To address model deficiencies, recent studies have focused on development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land- PBL coupling at the process-level. In this paper, a diagnosis of the nature and impacts of local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) during dry and wet extreme conditions is presented using a combination of models and observations during the summers of 2006 and 2007 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are applied to the dry/wet regimes exhibited in this region, and in the process a thorough evaluation of nine different land-PBL scheme couplings is conducted under the umbrella of a high-resolution regional modeling testbed. Results show that the sign and magnitude of errors in land surface energy balance components are sensitive to the choice of land surface model, regime type, and running mode. In addition, LoCo diagnostics show that the sensitivity of L-A coupling is stronger towards the land during dry conditions, while the PBL scheme coupling becomes more important during the wet regime. Results also demonstrate how LoCo diagnostics can be applied to any modeling system (e.g. reanalysis products) in the context of their integrated impacts on the process-chain connecting the land surface to the PBL and in support of hydrological anomalies.

Santanello, Joseph A. Jr.↗

Assessment of Mars Atmospheric Temperature Retrievals from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer Radiances

Motivated by the needs of Mars data assimilation. particularly quantification of measurement errors and generation of averaging kernels. we have evaluated atmospheric temperature retrievals from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) radiances. Multiple sets of retrievals have been considered in this study; (1) retrievals available from the Planetary Data System (PDS), (2) retrievals based on variants of the retrieval algorithm used to generate the PDS retrievals, and (3) retrievals produced using the Mars 1-Dimensional Retrieval (M1R) algorithm based on the Optimal Spectral Sampling (OSS ) forward model. The retrieved temperature profiles are compared to the MGS Radio Science (RS) temperature profiles. For the samples tested, the M1R temperature profiles can be made to agree within 2 K with the RS temperature profiles, but only after tuning the prior and error statistics. Use of a global prior that does not take into account the seasonal dependence leads errors of up 6 K. In polar samples. errors relative to the RS temperature profiles are even larger. In these samples, the PDS temperature profiles also exhibit a poor fit with RS temperatures. This fit is worse than reported in previous studies, indicating that the lack of fit is due to a bias correction to TES radiances implemented after 2004. To explain the differences between the PDS and Ml R temperatures, the algorithms are compared directly, with the OSS forward model inserted into the PDS algorithm. Factors such as the filtering parameter, the use of linear versus nonlinear constrained inversion, and the choice of the forward model, are found to contribute heavily to the differences in the temperature profiles retrieved in the polar regions, resulting in uncertainties of up to 6 K. Even outside the poles, changes in the a priori statistics result in different profile shapes which all fit the radiances within the specified error. The importance of the a priori statistics prevents reliable global retrievals based a single a priori and strongly implies that a robust science analysis must instead rely on retrievals employing localized a priori information, for example from an ensemble based data assimilation system such as the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF).

Hoffman, Matthew J.↗

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling: A Case Study of Dry/Wet Extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature and moisture states and fluxes. In turn, these interactions regulate the strength of the connection between surface moisture and precipitation in a coupled system. To address model deficiencies, recent studies have focused on development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land-PBL coupling at the process level. In this paper, a diagnosis of the nature and impacts of local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) during dry and wet extreme conditions is presented using a combination of models and observations during the summers of 2006 and 2007 in the U.S. southern Great Plains. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation is applied to the dry/wet regimes exhibited in this region, and in the process, a thorough evaluation of nine different land-PBL scheme couplings is conducted under the umbrella of a high-resolution regional modeling test bed. Results show that the sign and magnitude of errors in land surface energy balance components are sensitive to the choice of land surface model, regime type, and running mode. In addition, LoCo diagnostics show that the sensitivity of L-A coupling is stronger toward the land during dry conditions, while the PBL scheme coupling becomes more important during the wet regime. Results also demonstrate how LoCo diagnostics can be applied to any modeling system (e.g., reanalysis products) in the context of their integrated impacts on the process chain connecting the land surface to the PBL and in support of hydrological anomalies.

southern plains↗

Uncertainty in Soil Moisture Retrievals: an Ensemble Approach Using SMOS L-Band Microwave Data

The uncertainty of soil moisture (SM) retrievals from satellite brightness temperature (TB) observations depends primarily on the choice of radiative transfer model (RTM) parameters, prior SM information and TB inputs. This paper studies the sensitivity of several (quasi-)operational and experimental SM retrieval products from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission to these choices at 11 reference sites, located in 7 watersheds across the United States (US). Different literature-based RTM parameter sets cause large biases between retrievals. Whereas typical RTM parameter sets are calibrated for SM retrievals, it is shown that a parameter set carefully optimized for TB forward modeling can also be used for retrieving SM. It is also shown that the inclusion of dynamic prior SM estimates in a Bayesian retrieval scheme can strongly improve SM retrievals, regardless of the choice of RTM parameters, and that the use of multi-angular and multi-polarization TB does not necessarily lead to superior retrievals compared to retrievals based on TB data at a single incidence angle and polarization. The second part of this paper evaluates ensemble uncertainty metrics for SM retrievals obtained by propagating a wide range of RTM parameters through the RTM. As expected for bounded variables, the spread in the ensemble SM retrievals is smallest for wet and dry SM values and highest for intermediate SM values. After removal of the strong long-term mean bias associated with the RTM parameter values for individual ensemble members, the remaining anomaly ensemble SM spread of 0.037 cu m/cu m approximates the actual time series unbiased root-mean-square-difference of 0.042 cu m/cu m between ensemble mean retrievals and in situ reference data across the reference sites. However, the temporal variability in the anomaly ensemble spread reveals higher-order biases in the retrieval error, which should be accounted for when characterizing retrieval error.

Jan Quets↗

Wake Vortex Inverse Model User's Guide

NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA) has developed an inverse model for inverting landing aircraft vortex data. The data used for the inversion are the time evolution of the lateral transport position and vertical position of both the port and starboard vortices. The inverse model performs iterative forward model runs using various estimates of vortex parameters, vertical crosswind profiles, and vortex circulation as a function of wake age. Forward model predictions of lateral transport and altitude are then compared with the observed data. Differences between the data and model predictions guide the choice of vortex parameter values, crosswind profile and circulation evolution in the next iteration. Iterations are performed until a user-defined criterion is satisfied. Currently, the inverse model is set to stop when the improvement in the rms deviation between the data and model predictions is less than 1 percent for two consecutive iterations. The forward model used in this inverse model is a modified version of the Shear-APA model. A detailed description of this forward model, the inverse model, and its validation are presented in a different report (Lai, Mellman, Robins, and Delisi, 2007). This document is a User's Guide for the Wake Vortex Inverse Model. Section 2 presents an overview of the inverse model program. Execution of the inverse model is described in Section 3. When executing the inverse model, a user is requested to provide the name of an input file which contains the inverse model parameters, the various datasets, and directories needed for the inversion. A detailed description of the list of parameters in the inversion input file is presented in Section 4. A user has an option to save the inversion results of each lidar track in a mat-file (a condensed data file in Matlab format). These saved mat-files can be used for post-inversion analysis. A description of the contents of the saved files is given in Section 5. An example of an inversion input file, with preferred parameters values, is given in Appendix A. An example of the plot generated at a normal completion of the inversion is shown in Appendix B.

Lai, David↗

Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov; Kumar et al., 2006; Peters- Lidard et al.,2007) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected ase co-winner of NASA's 2005 Software of the Year award. LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has evolved from two earlier efforts North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS; Mitchell et al. 2004) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS; Rodell al. 2004) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations. In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) for their land data assimilation systems to support weather and climate modeling. LIS not only consolidates the capabilities of these two systems, but also enables a much larger variety of configurations with respect to horizontal spatial resolution, input datasets and choice of land surface model through "plugins,". As described in Kumar et al., 2007, and demonstrated in Case et al., 2008, and Santanello et al., 2009, LIS has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support studies of land-atmosphere coupling the enabling ensembles of land surface states to be tested against multiple representations of the atmospheric boundary layer. LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation as described in Peters-Lidard et al. (2008) and Santanello et al. (2007), who showed that the use of sequential remotely sensed soil moisture products can be used to derive soil hydraulic and texture properties given a sufficient dynamic range in the soil moisture retrievals and accurate precipitation inputs. LIS has also recently been demonstrated for multi-model data assimilation (Kumar et al., 2008) using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for sequential assimilation of soil moisture, snow, and temperature. Ongoing work has demonstrated the value of bias correction as part of the filter, and also that of joint calibration and assimilation. Examples and case studies demonstrating the capabilities and impacts of LIS for hydrometeoroogical modeling, assimilation and parameter estimation will be presented as advancements towards the next generation of integrated observation and modeling systems.

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗

Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite-and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected as a co-winner of NASA?s 2005 Software of the Year award.LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has e volved from two earlier efforts -- North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations.In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) for their land data assimilation systems to support weather and climate modeling. LIS not only consolidates the capabilities of these two systems, but also enables a much larger variety of configurations with respect to horizontal spatial resolution, input datasets and choice of land surface model through "plugins". LIS has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support studies of land-atmosphere coupling be enabling ensembles of land surface states to be tested against multiple representations of the atmospheric boundary layer. LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation, who showed that the use of sequential remotely sensed soil moisture products can be used to derive soil hydraulic and texture properties given a sufficient dynamic range in the soil moisture retrievals and accurate precipitation inputs.LIS has also recently been demonstrated for multi-model data assimilation using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for sequential assimilation of soil moisture, snow, and temperature.Ongoing work has demonstrated the value of bias correction as part of the filter, and also that of joint calibration and assimilation.Examples and case studies demonstrating the capabilities and impacts of LIS for hydrometeorological modeling, assimilation and parameter estimation will be presented as advancements towards the next generation of integrated observation and modeling systems

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗