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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ROCKE-3D 2.0: An Updated General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

We present the second generation of ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics), the generalized 3-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) for use in Solar System and exoplanetary simulations of rocky planet climates. ROCKE-3D version 2.0 is a descendant of GISS ModelE2.1, the flagship GCM of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) used in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. ROCKE-3D is a continuous effort to expand the capabilities of GISS ModelE to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including different atmospheric planet sizes, gravities, pressures, rotation rates, more diverse chemistries and atmospheric compositions, diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. We present in this release many more supported configurations which can serve as starting points to simulate terrestrial planets of interest. Two different radiation schemes are supported, the GISS radiation, valid for Earth-like planets, and SOCRATES, which is more generalized but requires more CPU resources. In addition, three different atmospheric compositions are supported, three ocean configurations (prescribed, q-flux, and dynamic), and two resolutions: the medium resolution (4 x 5 degrees in latitude x longitude) used in ROCKE-3D 1.0, and the fine resolution, which has double the resolution in the atmosphere and 4 times the resolution in the ocean. We quantify how the different component choices affect model results, and discuss strengths and limitations of using each component, together with how one can select which component to use. ROCKE-3D is publicly available and tutorial sessions are available for the community, greatly facilitating its use by any interested group.

ROCKE-3D↗
NASA NTRS2004

Mesosphere-Stratosphere Coupling: Implications for Climate Variability and Trends

A key aspect of this project is the establishment of a causal link from circulation anomalies in the lower mesosphere and stratopause region downward through the stratosphere to the troposphere. The observational link for stratospheric sudden warmings and surface climate is fairly clear. However, our understanding of the dynamics is incomplete. We have been making significant progress in the area of dynamical mechanisms by which circulation anomalies in the stratosphere affect the troposphere. We are trying to understand the details and sequence of events that occur when a middle atmosphere (wind) anomaly propagates downward to near the tropopause. The wind anomaly could be caused by a warming or solar variations in the low-latitude stratopause region, or could have other causes. The observations show a picture that is consistent with a circulation anomaly that descends to the tropopause region, and can be detected as low as the mid-troposphere. Processes near the stratopause in the tropics appear to be important precursors to the wintertime development of the northern polar vortex. This may affect significantly our understanding of the process by which low-latitude wind anomalies in the low mesosphere and upper stratosphere evolve through the winter and affect the polar vortex.

Baldwin, Mark P.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Study of atmospheric dynamics

In order to better understand the dynamics of the global atmosphere, a data set of precision temperature measurements was developed using the NASA built Microwave Sounding Unit. Modeling research was carried out to validate global model outputs using various satellite data. Idealized flows in a rotating annulus were studied and applied to the general circulation of the atmosphere. Dynamic stratospheric ozone fluctuations were investigated. An extensive bibliography and several reprints are appended.

Mcnider, Richard T.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Quantifying predictability variations in a low-order ocean-atmosphere model - A dynamical systems approach

The predictability of the weather and climatic states of a low-order moist general circulation model is quantified using a dynamic systems approach, and the effect of incorporating a simple oceanic circulation on predictability is evaluated. The predictability and the structure of the model attractors are compared using Liapunov exponents, local divergence rates, and the correlation and Liapunov dimensions. It was found that the activation of oceanic circulation increases the average error doubling time of the atmosphere and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system by 10 percent and decreases the variance of the largest local divergence rate by 20 percent. When an oceanic circulation develops, the average predictability of annually averaged states is improved by 25 percent and the variance of the largest local divergence rate decreases by 25 percent.

Nese, Jon M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

Cooling↗
NASA NTRS1988

Integration of space and in situ observations to study global climate change

The use of model-based global data sets of atmospheric circulation for studying fundamental dynamical and physical processes is discussed, focusing on limitations of the available model-based data sets. Data from the Global Weather Experiment in 1979 were analyzed by two authorized level IIIb data centers in 1980 and in 1981. The analyses led to difference in data-sparse regions such as the tropics. Study areas which can be addressed by an internally-consistent long-term multivariate data set for the atmospheric circulation are considered, including mean climate, forcing for the ocean models, global hydrological cycle, atmospheric energetics, intraseasonal variability, land surface processes, and structure and variability of vertical velocity, divergence, and diabatic heating. It is concluded that the most comprehensive technique for integrating space and in situ observations to produce this type of data set would be a four-dimensional data assimilation system with a realistic physical model of the type employed in operational numerical weather prediction.

Bengtsson, L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Use of satellite data and modeling to asses the influence of stratospheric processes on the troposphere

The research is comprised of the following tasks: use of simple analytical and numerical models of a coupled troposphere-stratosphere system to examine the effects of radiation and ozone on planetary wave dynamics and the tropospheric circulation; use of satellite data obtained from the Nimbus 7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) instrument and Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) experiment, in conjunction with National Meteorological Center (NMC) data, to determine the planetary wave vertical structures, dominant wave spectra, ozone spectra, and time variations in diabatic heating rate; and synthesis of the modeling and observational results to provide a better understanding of the effects that stratospheric processes have on tropospheric dynamics.

Nathan, Terrence R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Body force circulation and the Antarctic Ozone minimum

A dynamical mechanism, which is relevant to the ozone-depletion problem and which involves a 'body force' circulation discussed by Eliassen (1951), is considered. The body force problem and its application to 'generic' upper-tropospheric wave-driving are discussed theoretically. Following a review of the interhemispheric differences in the winter and early-spring circulation, the elliptic equation governing the residual mean meridional streamfunction is derived, and its analytic-solution properties in negligible shear are discussed. Finally, a numerical solution is derived using the observed August winds under the assumption of radiative equilibrium, and the effect of diabatic heating is discussed.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Ocean circulation using altimetry

Our group has been very actively involved in promoting satellite altimetry as a unique tool for observing ocean circulation and its variability. TOPEX/POSEIDON is particularly interesting as it is optimized for this purpose. It will probably be the first instrument really capable of observing the seasonal and interannual variability of subtropical and polar gyres and the first to eventually document the corresponding variability of their heat flux transport. The studies of these phenomena require data of the best quality, unbiased extraction of the signal, mixing of these satellite data with in situ measurements, and assimilation of the whole set into a dynamic description of ocean circulation. Our group intends to develop responses to all these requirements. We will concentrate mostly on the circulation of the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans: This will be done in close connection with other groups involved in the study of circulation of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, in the altimetry measurements (in particular, those of the tidal issue), and in the techniques of data assimilation in ocean circulation models.

Minster, Jean-Francois↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Role of Gravity Waves in Generating Equatorial Oscillations in Modulating Atmospheric Tides

We discuss a Numerical Spectral Mode (NSM) that extends from the ground up into the thermosphere and incorporates Hines' Doppler spread parameterization (DSP) for small scale gravity waves (GW). This model is applied to describe the seasonal variations in the mean zonal circulation, the semi-annual and quasi-biennial oscillations (SAO and QBO), as well as the tides and planetary waves in the middle atmosphere. Initial results showed that this model can reproduce the salient features observed, including the QBO extending into the upper mesosphere inferred from UARS measurements. The model has now been extended to simulate also: (a) the zonal circulation of the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, and (b) the upwelling at equatorial latitudes associated with the Brewer Dobsen circulation that affects the dynamics significantly as pointed out by Dunkerton. Upward vertical winds increase the period of the QBO observed from the ground. To compensate for that, one needs to increase in the model the eddy diffusivity and the GW momentum flux, bringing the latter closer to values recommended in the DSP. This development is conducive to extending the QBO and SAO to higher latitudes through global scale momentum redistribution. Multi-year interannual oscillations are generated through wave filtering by the solar driven annual oscillation in the zonal circulation. In a 3D version of the model, wave momentum is absorbed and dissipated by tides and planetary waves. A somewhat larger GW source (well within the DSP range) is then required to generate realistic QBO and SAO amplitudes. Since GW momentum is deposited in the altitude regime of increasing winds, the amplitude of the diurnal tide is amplified and its vertical wavelength is reduced at altitudes between 70 and 120 km. Wave filtering by the mean zonal circulation causes the GW flux to peak during equinox, and this produces a large semi-annual variation in the tide that has been observed on UARS. Without the diurnal tide, the semidiurnal tide would also be modulated in this way. But the diurnal tide filters out the GW preferentially during equinox, so that the semidiurnal tide tends to peak during solstice. Under the influence of GW, the tides are modulated significantly by planetary waves that are generated preferentially during solstice in part due to baroclinic instability.

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Stratospheric dynamics and transport studies

A three dimensional General Circulation Model/Transport Model is used to simulate stratospheric circulation and constituent distributions. Model simulations are analyzed to interpret radiative, chemical, and dynamical processes and their mutual interactions. Concurrent complementary studies are conducted using both global satellite data and other appropriate data. Comparisons of model simulations and data analysis studies are used to aid in understanding stratospheric dynamics and transport processes and to assess the validity of current theory and models.

Grose, William L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resolved gravity waves in the tropical stratosphere: Impact of horizontal resolution and deep convection parametrization

Convectively generated gravity waves (CGGWs) are important for numerical weather prediction due to their effect on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the stratosphere. Here, using global ECMWF IFS simulations at TCo7999 (or 1.25 km), TCo2559 (or 3.9 km) and TCo1279 (or 7.8 km) horizontal resolutions, sensitivity of resolved CGGWs to the horizontal resolution and to the explicit versus parametrized representation of deep convection is elucidated during the westerly shear phase of the QBO. Parametrized deep convection is found to inhibit CGGWs, resulting in a twofold reduction in CGGW forcing. When deep convection is explicitly resolved, the total CGGW forcing is almost unchanged across the horizontal resolutions. However, the contribution of long and mesoscale CGGWs (with horizontal wavelengths 100 km ≤ $λ_h$ < $1,900$ km) to the total CGGW forcing decreases and the contribution of smaller-scale CGGWs (with $λ_h$ < $100$ km) increases as the horizontal resolution increases. At the maximum CGGW forcing altitude, at TCo7999 resolution 43% of the total CGGW forcing is due to long and mesoscale waves, whereas at TCo2559 and TCo1279 resolutions their contribution is 70% and 90%, respectively. While CGGW forcing from long and mesoscale waves is similar at TCo7999 resolution with explicit deep convection and at TCo1279 resolution with parametrized deep convection, CGGW forcing from these waves is artificially enhanced at TCo1279 and TCo2559 resolutions with explicit deep convection. This is due to the explicit deep convection being too strong and having too much variance for 100 km ≤ $λ_h$ < $1,900$ km. Therefore, parametrizations of deep convection and CGGWs (to account for forcing from waves with $λ_h$ < $100$ km) are required even at TCo2559 resolution. Additionally, resolved CGGW forcing at TCo7999 resolution is examined for the easterly shear phase of the QBO; similar to the westerly shear phase, the smaller-scale waves contribute 55% to the total CGGW forcing at the maximum CGGW forcing altitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Seasonal Forecast Using Probabilistic Deep Learning

The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits relies on improving general circulation model (GCM) based dynamical forecast systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecasts, it is crucial to set up forecast benchmarks, and clarify forecast limitations posed by model initialization errors, formulation deficiencies, and internal climate variability. With huge costs in generating large forecast ensembles, and limited observations for forecast verification, the seasonal forecast benchmarking and diagnosing task proves challenging. Here, we develop a probabilistic deep learning-based statistical forecast methodology, drawing on a wealth of climate simulations to enhance seasonal forecast capability and forecast diagnosis. By explicitly modeling the internal climate variability and GCM formulation differences, the proposed Conditional Generative Forecasting (CGF) methodology enables bypassing crucial barriers in dynamical forecast, and offers a top-down viewpoint to examine how complicated GCMs encode the seasonal predictability information. We apply the CGF methodology for global seasonal forecast of precipitation and 2 m air temperature, based on a unique data set consisting 52,201 years of climate simulation. Results show that the CGF methodology can faithfully represent the seasonal predictability information encoded in GCMs. We successfully apply this learned relationship in real-world seasonal forecast, achieving competitive performance compared to dynamical forecasts. Using this CGF as benchmark, we reveal the impact of insufficient forecast spread sampling that limits the skill of the considered dynamical forecast system. Finally, we introduce different strategies for composing ensembles using the CGF methodology, highlighting the potential for leveraging the strengths of multiple GCMs to achieve advantgeous seasonal forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Tropical Cyclone Wind Forcing on the Global Climate in a Fully Coupled Climate Model

Tropical cyclones (TCs) alter upper-ocean temperature and influence ocean heat content via enhanced turbulent mixing. A better understanding of the role of TCs within the climate system requires a fully coupled modeling framework, where TC-induced ocean responses feed back to the atmosphere and subsequently to the climate mean state and variability. Here, we investigate the impacts of TC wind forcing on the global ocean and the associated feedbacks within the climate system using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model version 1.3 (CESM1.3). Using the low-resolution version of CESM1.3 (1° atmosphere and ocean grid spacing) with no intrinsic TCs, we conduct a suite of sensitivity experiments by inserting TC winds extracted from a high-resolution (0.25° atmosphere grid spacing) TC-permitting simulation into the low-resolution model. Results from the low-resolution TC experiment are compared to a low-resolution control simulation to diagnose TCs’ impact. We found that the added TC winds can increase ocean heat content by affecting ocean vertical mixing, air–sea enthalpy fluxes, and cloud amount. Here, the added TCs can influence mean SST, precipitation, ocean subsurface temperature, and ocean mixed layer depth. We found a strengthening of the wind-driven subtropical cells and a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation due to the changes of surface buoyancy fluxes. TCs in the model cause anomalous equatorward ocean heat convergence in the deep tropics and an increase of poleward ocean heat transport out of the subtropics. Our modeling results provide new insights into the multiscale interactions between TCs and the coupled climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Responses in the Subpolar North Atlantic in Two Climate Model Sensitivity Experiments with Increased Stratospheric Aerosols

Abstract The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) shows contrasting responses in two sensitivity experiments with increased stratospheric aerosols, offering insight into the physical processes that may impact the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a warmer climate. In one, the upper ocean becomes warm and salty, but in the other it becomes cold and fresh. The changes are accompanied by diverging AMOC responses. The first experiment strengthens the AMOC, opposing the weakening trend in the reference simulation. The second experiment shows a much smaller impact. Both simulations use the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model component (CESM-WACCM) but differ in model versions and stratospheric aerosol specifications. Despite both experiments using similar approaches to increase stratospheric aerosols to counteract the rising global temperature, the contrasting SPNA and AMOC responses indicate a considerable dependency on model physics, climate states, and model responses to forcings. This study focuses on examining the physical processes involved with the impact of stratospheric aerosols on the SPNA salinity changes and their potential connections with the AMOC and the Arctic. We find that in both cases, increased stratospheric aerosols act to enhance the SPNA upper-ocean salinity by reducing freshwater export from the Arctic, which is closely tied to the Arctic sea ice changes. The impact on AMOC is primarily through the thermal component of the surface buoyancy fluxes, with negligible contributions from the freshwater component. These experiments shed light on the physical processes that dictate the important connections between the SPNA, the Arctic, the AMOC, and their subsequent feedbacks on the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seroprevalence and risk factors for brucellosis amongst livestock and humans in a multi-herd ranch system in Kagera, Tanzania

Background Brucellosis remains a significant health and economic challenge for livestock and humans globally. Despite its public health implications, the factors driving the endemic persistence ofBrucellaat the human-livestock interface in Tanzania remain poorly elucidated. This study aimed to identify the seroprevalence ofBrucellainfection in livestock and humans within a ranching system and determine associated risk factors for disease endemicity. Methods A cross-sectional sero-epidemiological study was conducted in 2023 in Tanzania’s Karagwe District, involving 725 livestock (cattle, goats, sheep) from 10 herds and 112 humans from associated camps. Seroprevalence was assessed using competitive ELISA while epidemiological data were collected via questionnaires. Generalized Linear Models and Contrast Analysis were used to identify risk factors for infection. Results Overall seroprevalence was 34% in livestock and 41% in humans. Goats exhibited the highest prevalence (69.2%), while cattle had the lowest (22.6%). Mixed-species herds (Odds Ratio, OR = 2.96, CI [1.90–4.60]) and small ruminants-only herds (OR = 6.54, CI [3.65–11.72]) showed a significantly higher risk of seropositivity compared to cattle-only herds. Older cattle (OR = 5.23, CI [2.70–10.10]) and lactating females (OR = 2.87, CI [1.78–4.63]) represented significant risks for brucellosis in livestock. In humans, close contact with animals (OR = 7.20, CI [1.97–36.31]) and handling animals during parturition or aborted fetuses (OR = 2.37, CI [1.01–5.58]) were significant risk factors. Notably, no spatial association was found in seroprevalence between herds and nearby human communities. Conclusion The lack of spatial correlation between livestock and human seroprevalence suggests complex transmission dynamics, potentially involving endemic circulation in livestock and human infections from multiple sources of exposure to livestock. This study highlights the need for comprehensive zoonotic risk education and targeted intervention strategies. Further research is crucial to elucidate transmission pathways and improveBrucellainfection control. This includes developing robust methods for identifying infective species and implementing effective strategies to mitigateBrucellainfection in endemic regions.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗