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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Optimizing a magnitude-limited spectroscopic training sample for photometric classification of supernovae

ABSTRACT In preparation for photometric classification of transients from the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) we run tests with different training data sets. Using estimates of the depth to which the 4-m Multi-Object Spectroscopic Telescope (4MOST) Time Domain Extragalactic Survey (TiDES) can classify transients, we simulate a magnitude-limited sample reaching rAB ≈ 22.5 mag. We run our simulations with the software snmachine, a photometric classification pipeline using machine learning. The machine-learning algorithms struggle to classify supernovae when the training sample is magnitude limited, in contrast to representative training samples. Classification performance noticeably improves when we combine the magnitude-limited training sample with a simulated realistic sample of faint high-redshift supernovae observed from larger spectroscopic facilities; the algorithms’ range of average area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) scores over 10 runs increases from 0.547–0.628 to 0.946–0.969 and purity of the classified sample reaches 95 per cent in all runs for two of the four algorithms. By creating new, artificial light curves using the augmentation software avocado, we achieve a purity in our classified sample of 95 per cent in all 10 runs performed for all machine-learning algorithms considered. We also reach a highest average AUC score of 0.986 with the artificial neural network algorithm. Having ‘true’ faint supernovae to complement our magnitude-limited sample is a crucial requirement in optimization of a 4MOST spectroscopic sample. However, our results are a proof of concept that augmentation is also necessary to achieve the best classification results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamical Classification of Trans-Neptunian Objects Detected by the Dark Energy Survey

The outer solar system contains a large number of small bodies (known as trans-Neptunian objects or TNOs) that exhibit diverse types of dynamical behavior. The classification of bodies in this distant region into dynamical classes—subpopulations that experience similar orbital evolution—aids in our understanding of the structure and formation of the solar system. In this work, we propose an updated dynamical classification scheme for the outer solar system. This approach includes the construction of a new (automated) method for identifying mean motion resonances. We apply this algorithm to the current data set of TNOs observed by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and present a working classification for all of the DES TNOs detected to date. Our classification scheme yields 1 inner centaur, 19 outer centaurs, 21 scattering disk objects, 47 detached TNOs, 48 securely resonant objects, 7 resonant candidates, and 97 classical belt objects. Among the scattering and detached objects, we detect 8 TNOs with semimajor axes greater than 150 au.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constituent Data Replacement Tool

The purpose of this tool is to estimate key parameters that may be missing in public wastewater composition datasets. The tool can be applied to develop complete treatment and critical mineral extraction profiles for leachate, produced water and other aqueous waste streams. The tool applies machine learning algorithms to replace missing data in a user’s water data set that are adjusted based on user preferences for options including algorithm type, number of features, and classification variables. The tool can use the user’s data alone or combine user data with the NEWTS USGS Produced Water Database for more robust training. This research was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) through National Energy Technology Laboratory’s ongoing research under the Water Management for Power System Field Work Proposal, DE-FECM 1022428 and Critical Minerals Field Work Proposal, DE-FECM 1022420.

Aqueous Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probing for Artifacts: Detecting Imagenet Model Evasions

While deep learning models have made incredible progress across a variety of machine learning tasks, they remain vulnerable to adversarial examples crafted to fool otherwise trustworthy models. In this work we approach this problem through the lens of a detection framework. We propose a classification network that uses the hidden layer activations of a trained model as inputs to detect adversarial artifacts in an input. We train this classification network simultaneously against multiple adversarial algorithms to create a more robust detector and show higher detection rates than several alternatives. The novelty of our approach is in the scale and scope of probing Imagenet models for adversarial artifacts. In addition, we propose an improvement to feature squeezing, another common adversarial example detection method.

Rounds, Jeremiah↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation of the NOνA experiment 2023-tuning on simulated neutrino-matter interactions

NOνA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment that utilizes a two-detector design to study the oscillations of muon neutrinos into electron neutrinos over a baseline of 810 km. The Near Detector (ND) measures the neutrino beam spectrum and composition before oscillation, which is then compared to the oscillated neutrino energy spectrum observed in the Far Detector (FD). In the ND, the neutrinos are detected through their interactions with the heavy target nuclei within the detector. NOνA employs the GENIE neutrino event generator for simulating these neutrino-nucleus interactions. However, the default GENIE prediction does not adequately reproduce the ND data. To address this, NOνA developed a tune of the neutrino interaction models within GENIE version 3:0:6 to minimize discrepancies between the simulated predictions and the observed data in the ND. This dissertation tests the NOνA’s 2023 tune of the GENIE neutrino cross-section simulations by performing a data/simulations comparison for the ND. The analysis employed datasets comprising $2.55\times10^{21}$ protons-on-target (POT) in neutrino beam mode and $1.14\times10^{21}$ POT in antineutrino beam mode. The NOνA tuning of neutrino-matter interaction simulations matches with ND data within the $1\sigma$ error band, overestimating muon neutrino and antineutrino charged current interactions by approximately 6 % and 9 %, respectively. Discrepancies were observed in the energy region dominated by Quasi-Elastic-like interactions. Systematic uncertainties associated with the modeling of the neutrino cross-section, particularly those pertaining Quasi-Elastic like interactions, contributed considerably to the overall error in the simulations. Furthermore, the reconstruction algorithm used in NOνA for particle classification demonstrated significant misidentifications between charged pions and protons, as well as a tendency to overlook additional pions or protons in multi-particle simulated events.

Cortés Parra, Camilo Andrés↗
DOE OSTI2023

A comparison of machine learning methods to classify radioactive elements using prompt-gamma-ray neutron activation data

The detection of illicit radiological materials is critical to establishing a robust second line of defence in nuclear security. Neutron-capture prompt-gamma activation analysis (PGAA) can be used to detect multiple radioactive materials across the entire Periodic Table. However, long detection times and a high rate of false positives pose a significant hindrance in the deployment of PGAA-based systems to identify the presence of illicit substances in nuclear forensics. In the present work, six different machine-learning algorithms were developed to classify radioactive elements based on the PGAA energy spectra. The model performance was evaluated using standard classification metrics and trend curves with an emphasis on comparing the effectiveness of algorithms that are best suited for classifying imbalanced datasets. We analyse the classification performance based on Precision, Recall, F1-score, Specificity, Confusion matrix, ROC-AUC curves, and Geometric Mean Score (GMS) measures. The tree-based algorithms (Decision Trees, Random Forest and AdaBoost) have consistently outperformed Support Vector Machine and K-Nearest Neighbours. Based on the results presented, AdaBoost is the preferred classifier to analyse data containing PGAA spectral information due to the high recall and minimal false negatives reported in the minority class.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Evaluation of Machine Learning Techniques for Isotope Identification Contextualized by Training and Testing Spectral Similarity

Precise gamma-ray spectral analysis is crucial in high-stakes applications, such as nuclear security. Research efforts toward implementing machine learning (ML) approaches for accurate analysis are limited by the resemblance of the training data to the testing scenarios. The underlying spectral shape of synthetic data may not perfectly reflect measured configurations, and measurement campaigns may be limited by resource constraints. Consequently, ML algorithms for isotope identification must maintain accurate classification performance under domain shifts between the training and testing data. To this end, four different classifiers (Ridge, Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and Multilayer Perceptron) were trained on the same dataset and evaluated on twelve other datasets with varying standoff distances, shielding, and background configurations. A tailored statistical approach was introduced to quantify the similarity between the training and testing configurations, which was then related to the predictive performance. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests revealed that the OVR-wrapped XGB significantly outperformed the other algorithms, with confidence levels of 99.0% or above for the 133Ba, 60Co, 137Cs, and 152Eu sources. The findings from this work are significant as they outline techniques to promote the development of robust ML-based approaches for isotope identification.

domain adaptation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Alert Classification for the ALeRCE Broker System: The Light Curve Classifier

We present the first version of the Automatic Learning for the Rapid Classification of Events (ALeRCE) broker light curve classifier. ALeRCE is currently processing the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) alert stream, in preparation for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. The ALeRCE light curve classifier uses variability features computed from the ZTF alert stream and colors obtained from AllWISE and ZTF photometry. We apply a balanced random forest algorithm with a two-level scheme where the top level classifies each source as periodic, stochastic, or transient, and the bottom level further resolves each of these hierarchical classes among 15 total classes. This classifier corresponds to the first attempt to classify multiple classes of stochastic variables (including core- and host-dominated active galactic nuclei, blazars, young stellar objects, and cataclysmic variables) in addition to different classes of periodic and transient sources, using real data. We created a labeled set using various public catalogs (such as the Catalina Surveys and Gaia DR2 variable stars catalogs, and the Million Quasars catalog), and we classify all objects with ≥6 g-band or ≥6 r-band detections in ZTF (868,371 sources as of 2020 June 9), providing updated classifications for sources with new alerts every day. For the top level we obtain macro-averaged precision and recall scores of 0.96 and 0.99, respectively, and for the bottom level we obtain macro-averaged precision and recall scores of 0.57 and 0.76, respectively. Updated classifications from the light curve classifier can be found at the ALeRCE Explorer website (http://alerce.online).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Confidentiality-preserving machine learning algorithms for soft-failure detection in optical communication networks

Automated fault management is at the forefront of next-generation optical communication networks. The increase in complexity of modern networks has triggered the need for programmable and software-driven architectures to support the operation of agile and self-managed systems. In these scenarios, the European Telecommunications Standards Institute zero-touch network and service management approach is imperative. The need for machine learning algorithms to process the large volume of telemetry data brings safety concerns as distributed cloud-computing solutions become the preferred approach for deploying reliable communication network automation. This paper’s contribution is twofold. First, we propose a simple yet effective method to guarantee the confidentiality of the telemetry data based on feature scrambling. The method allows the operation of third-party computational services without direct access to the full content of the collected data. Additionally, the effectiveness of four unsupervised machine learning algorithms for soft-failure detection is evaluated when applied to the scrambled telemetry data. The methods are based on factor analysis, principal component analysis, nonlinear principal component analysis, and singular value decomposition. Most dimensionality reduction algorithms have the common property that they can maintain similar levels of fault classification performance while hiding the data structure from unauthorized access. Evaluations of the proposed algorithms demonstrate this capability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A network approach for multiscale catchment classification using traits

Abstract. The classification of river catchments into groups with similar biophysical characteristics is useful to understand and predict their hydrological behavior. The increasing availability of remote sensing and other large-scale geospatial datasets has enabled the use of advanced data-driven approaches to classify catchments using traits such as topography, geology, climate, land cover, land use, and human influence. Unsupervised clustering algorithms based on the Euclidean distance are commonly used for trait-based classification but are not suitable for highly dimensional data. In this study we present a new network-based method for multi-scale catchment classification, which can be applied to large datasets and used to determine the traits associated with different catchment groups. In this framework, two networks are analyzed in parallel: the first being where the nodes are traits and the second being where the nodes are catchments. In both cases, edges represent pairwise similarity, and a network cluster detection algorithm is used for the classification. The trait network is used to investigate redundancy in the trait data and to condense this information into a small number of interpretable categories. The catchments network is used to classify the catchments into clusters and to identify representative catchments for the different groups using the degree centrality metric. We apply this method to classify 9067 river catchments across the contiguous United States at both regional and continental scales using 274 non-categorical traits. At the continental scale, we identify 25 interpretable trait categories and 34 catchment clusters of sizes greater than 50. We find that catchments with similar trait categories are typically located in the same region, with different spatial patterns emerging among clusters dominated by natural and anthropogenic traits. We also find that the catchment clusters exhibit distinct hydrological behavior based on an analysis of streamflow indices. This network approach provides several advantages over traditional means of classification, including better separation of clusters, the use of alternate similarity metrics that are more suitable for highly dimensional data, and reducing redundancy in the trait information. The paired catchment–trait networks enable analysis of hydrological behavior using the dominant trait categories for each catchment cluster. The approach can be used at multiple spatial scales since the network topologies adjust automatically to reflect the trait patterns at the scale of investigation. Finally, the representative catchments identified as hub nodes in the network can be used to guide transferable observational and modeling strategies. The method is broadly applicable beyond hydrology for classification of other complex systems that utilize different types of trait datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technical Performance and Cost Optimization of Unobtrusive Multi-static Serial LiDAR Imager (UMSLI) for Wide-area Surveillance and Identification of Marine Life at Marine Energy Installations

Florida Atlantic University developed an underwater optical monitoring system prototype - Unobtrusive Multi-static Serial LiDAR Imager (UMSLI) - suitable for marine energy full project lifecycle observation (baseline, commissioning, and decommissioning), with an automated real-time classification of marine animals. With precursor 2014 DOE funding (award DE-EE0006787), a prototype UMSLI was demonstrated in a controlled laboratory environment and achieved a TRL 6. This EERE DE-EE0007828 award aimed to both increase the TRL of the UMSLI by improving the technology performance (e.g., increase distance of marine animal target detection capability, add additional species classification capabilities, improve the system performance during the day, etc.) and reduce the cost. The UMSLI presents a novel application of underwater distributed Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR), an advanced remote sensing method that uses light in the form of laser pulses for an application, this paired with an algorithm provides 360 degrees underwater detection, imaging, and classification of marine life. This solution for underwater monitoring of biota preserves the advantages of traditional optical and acoustic solutions while overcoming many associated disadvantages for marine energy site environmental monitoring, such as difficulties in species detection and classification in low light or night and turbid environments. This new approach is a purposefully designed, reconfigurable adaptation of an existing class 3B laser technology into one UMSLI instrument that can be easily mounted on or around different classes of marine energy equipment, such as devices to capture ocean current energy or wave energy. The system uses relatively low average power, utilizes far-red (> 635nm) laser illumination to be invisible and eye-safe to marine animals, is compact, and cost-effective. The equipment is designed for long-term, maintenance-free operations (i.e., current design is targeting more than 7 days continuous operation), to inherently generate a sparse primary dataset that only includes detected anomalies, and to allow robust real-time automated animal classification and identification with a low data bandwidth requirement. The technology’s overarching goal for application, is a system that can be deployed to collect pre-installation baseline species observations at a proposed marine energy deployment site with minimal post-processing overhead. The envisioned system will also produce high-resolution imagery of marine animals through a wide range of conditions and support automated tracking and notification of the presence of managed animals within established perimeters of marine energy equipment to satisfy deployed marine energy projects’ endangered and threatened species monitoring requirements. Through the current project, we demonstrated the UMSLI prototype in an operational environment and increased the UMSLI’s Technology Readiness Level from 6 to 7. The project resulted in many novel technologies, including: 1) an eye-safe red laser based, low-cost LiDAR system that can detect targets up to 10 meters distance; 2) the GAN-based machine learning underwater LiDAR image enhancement technique (this is the first known application of GAN technique in underwater LiDAR); 3) LiDAR-based real-time automated detection capabilities; and 4) a template matching based automated classification tool. These technologies build a solid foundation for future efforts to develop an extended range electro-optical monitoring system suitable for marine energy deployments. In addition to technology development, a key lesson learned is that addressing regulatory and safety requirements must be front and center in any marine energy monitoring applications.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pulsed Thermal Tomography Nondestructive Examination of Additively Manufactured Reactor Materials and Components. Third Annual Progress Report

Additive manufacturing (AM) of high-strength corrosion resistance alloys for nuclear energy applications, such as stainless steel and Inconel, is currently based on laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process. Some of the challenges with using LPBF method for nuclear manufacturing include the possibility of introducing pores into metallic structures. Probability of crack initiation at the pore depends on size, shape, and orientation of the defect. Pulsed Infrared Thermography Imaging (PIT) provides a capability for non-destructive evaluation (NDE) of sub-surface defects in arbitrary size structures. The PIT method is based on recording material surface temperature transients with infrared (IR) camera following thermal pulse delivered on material surface with flash light. The PIT method has advantages for NDE of actual AM structures because the method involves one-sided non-contact measurements and fast processing of large sample areas captured in one image. Following initial qualification of an AM component for deployment in a nuclear reactor, a PIT system can also be used for in-service nondestructive evaluation (NDE) applications. In this report, we describe recent progress in enhancing PIT capabilities in detecting microscopic subsurface defects in metals, and classifying shapes and orientation of pores in thermal images. For detection of microscopic defects in PIT imaging data, we have developed Spatial Temporal Denoised Thermal Source Separation (STDTSS) unsupervised machine learning (ML) image processing algorithm. We show that flat bottom hole (FBH) defects as small as 200µm in SS316 and IN718 specimens, can be detected with STDTSS algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, these are the smallest detected defects which are reported in literature. For classification of defects shapes, we have previously developed thermal tomography (TT) algorithm to obtain depth reconstructions of material defects from data cube of sequentially recorded surface temperatures. However, interpretation of TT images is non-trivial because of blurring with increasing depth. To address this challenge, we have developed a deep learning convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify size and orientation subsurface defects in simulated TT images.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rapid, antibiotic incubation-free determination of tuberculosis drug resistance using machine learning and Raman spectroscopy

Tuberculosis (TB) is the world’s deadliest infectious disease, with over 1.5 million deaths and 10 million new cases reported anually. The causative organism Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) can take nearly 40 d to culture, a required step to determine the pathogen’s antibiotic susceptibility. Both rapid identification and rapid antibiotic susceptibility testing of Mtb are essential for effective patient treatment and combating antimicrobial resistance. Here, we demonstrate a rapid, culture-free, and antibiotic incubation-free drug susceptibility test for TB using Raman spectroscopy and machine learning. We collect few-to-single-cell Raman spectra from over 25,000 cells of the Mtb complex strain Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) resistant to one of the four mainstay anti-TB drugs, isoniazid, rifampicin, moxifloxacin, and amikacin, as well as a pan-susceptible wildtype strain. By training a neural network on this data, we classify the antibiotic resistance profile of each strain, both on dried samples and on patient sputum samples. On dried samples, we achieve >98% resistant versus susceptible classification accuracy across all five BCG strains. In patient sputum samples, we achieve ~79% average classification accuracy. We develop a feature recognition algorithm in order to verify that our machine learning model is using biologically relevant spectral features to assess the resistance profiles of our mycobacterial strains. Finally, we demonstrate how this approach can be deployed in resource-limited settings by developing a low-cost, portable Raman microscope that costs <$5,000. We show how this instrument and our machine learning model enable combined microscopy and spectroscopy for accurate few-to-single-cell drug susceptibility testing of BCG.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Intra-hour Solar Irradiance Forecast in Multiple Locations using Deep Transfer Learning

In recent years, solar power system installation imposes several challenges on the operations of local and regional power grids due to the inherent variability of ground-level solar irradiance. This work proposes a novel real-time solar forecast methodology for intra-hour solar irradiance based on deep transfer learning from ground-based sky imager for time horizons ranging from 5-15 min. There are three unique aspects of the proposed methodology: (1) a Deep Learning based algorithm development which is modeled as a classification approach rather than a traditional regression approach; (2) the use of the Transfer Learning technique to show generalization capability, robustness, and portability of baseline model in the newly deployed location where availability of enough data for training is typically scarce, and (3) redefinition of point-based irradiation forecast error estimation technique with a window-based one that is more intuitive and user-friendly. The system is developed using multiple years of irradiance and sky image recording in New Jersey and one-year data from Colorado, USA. The method is validated against ground telemetry from these two locations of diverse geographic and climatic conditions. Results show that the forecasting method proposed in this work is robust and highly accurate (8% MAPE error) for multiple locations deployment.

Deep Learning, Convolution Neural Networks, transf↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intelligent Electrochemical Sensors for Precise Identification of Volatile Organic Compounds Enabled by Neural Network Analysis

The volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in a wide spectrum of categories were identified as biomarkers in aquatic environments, playing an important role in marine and freshwater ecology and global atmospheric chemistry. VOCs released from biofuel have also attracted increasing attention. Although the importance has been recognized, the portable detection and analysis methods of VOC in aquatic systems have not yet been well developed and understood. Here, in this work, we innovatively proposed an intelligent electrochemical sensing approach to classify and quantify VOCs in solution. Utilizing the cyclic voltammetry (CV) method with an ionic liquid (IL)-based electrolyte, we analyzed 50 μL samples of various VOC analytes, including acetic acid (AC), acetone, dimethylformamide (DMF), dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), ethanol, formaldehyde, formic acid, methanol, methyl formate (MF), toluene, and a formaldehyde-methanol mixture, along with deionized water (DI water). The generated voltammograms were subsequently analyzed using our uniquely designed and optimized 1-D convolutional neural network (1D-CNN). This deep-learning algorithm achieved a 99.09% accuracy in VOC classification validated through fivefold cross-validation and demonstrated an impressive 94.4% test accuracy for methanol detection within a 10 μL error range. For quantification, the system accurately categorized methanol volumes ranging from 0 to 50 μL in 10 μL increments, achieving a 98.18% accuracy. A notable linear correlation (R2 = 95.56%) was found between max current density at the oxidation peak and methanol volume, with the limit of detection (LOD) at 9.3 μL. Such a sensing method exhibits potential for portability, high accuracy, and generalization in the classification and quantification, ultimately reshaping the realm of VOC analysis in solution.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climatology of Linear Mesoscale Convective System Morphology in the United States based on Random Forests Method

This study uses machine learning methods, specifically the random forest (RF), on a radar-based mesoscale convective system (MCS) tracking dataset to classify the five types of linear MCS morphology in the contiguous United States during the period 2004-2016. The algorithm is trained using radar- and satellite-derived spatial and morphological parameters, and reanalysis environmental information from 5-26yr manually identified nonlinear and five linear MCS modes. The algorithm is then used to automate the classification of linear MCSs over 8 years with high accuracy, providing a systematic, long-term climatology of linear MCSs. Results reveal that nearly 40% of MCSs are classified as linear MCSs, in which half of the linear events belong to the type of system having a leading convective line. The occurrence of linear MCSs shows large annual and seasonal variations. On average, 113 linear MCSs occur annually during the warm season (through March to October), with most of these events clustered from May through August in the central eastern Great Plains. MCS characteristics, including duration, propagation speed, orientation, and system cloud size, have large variability among the different linear modes. The systems having a trailing convective line and the systems having a back-building area of convection typically move more slowly and have higher precipitation rate, and thus have higher potential in producing extreme rainfall and flash flooding. Analysis of the environmental conditions associated with linear MCSs show that the storm-relative flow is of most importance in determining the organization mode of linear MCSs.

Cui, Wenjun↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Based Identification of the Interface Regions for Coupling Local and Nonlocal Models

Local-nonlocal coupling approaches provide a means to combine the computational efficiency of local models and the accuracy of nonlocal models. However, the coupling process can be challenging, requiring expertise to identify the interface between local and nonlocal regions. Here, this study introduces a machine learning-based approach to automatically detect the regions in which the local and nonlocal models should be used. The method uses loading functions evaluated at grid points to decide the model selection at those points. Training of the networks is based on datasets provided by classes of loading functions for which reference coupling configurations are computed using accurate coupled solutions, where accuracy is measured in terms of the relative error between the solution to the coupling approach and the solution to the nonlocal model. We study two approaches that vary in data structure. The first, the full-domain input data approach, uses the entire load vector and outputs a complete label vector, performing a global classification. The second, a window-based approach, processes loads into windows and addresses the problem as a node-wise classification where each window's central point is classified individually. The classification problems are solved via deep learning algorithms based on convolutional neural networks. The performance of these approaches is studied on one-dimensional numerical examples using F1-scores and accuracy metrics. Notably, the windowing approach achieves an accuracy of 0.96 and an F1-score of 0.97, highlighting its potential to automate coupling processes effectively and enhance computational efficiency in material science applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗