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DOE OSTI2022

Numerical Errors in Ice Microphysics Parameterizations and their Effects on Simulated Regional Climate

The major characteristics of ice microphysics in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) bulk-type cloud microphysics originate from the diagnosed ice number concentration, which is a function of the cloud-ice mixing ratio. In this study, we correct numerical errors in ice microphysics processes of the WDM6, in which the cloud-ice shape is assumed as single bullets and examine the impact on regional climate simulations. Here, by rederiving the relationships between cloud microphysics characteristics, including the one linking the cloud-ice mixing ratio and number concentration, we remove numerical errors intrinsic to the description of cloud-ice characteristics in the original WDM6 microphysics scheme. The revised WDM6 is tested using a WRF framework for regional climate simulations over the East Asian region. We find that our correction to the WDM6 improves the model’s performance in capturing the observed distribution of the monsoon rain band. A reduction in cloud ice is significant in the revised WDM6, which strengthens the Western North Pacific High. By conducting the additional sensitivity experiment in which the characteristics of cloud-ice shape are revised as the one for the column type, our study also finds out that the impacts of the existing numerical errors on the simulated monsoon is as large as the ones of the changes in cloud-ice shape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

Impact winter and the Cretaceous/Tertiary extinctions: Results of a Chicxulub asteroid impact model

The Chicxulub impact crater in Mexico is the site of the impact purported to have caused mass extinctions at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. 2-D hydrocode modeling of the impact, coupled with studies of the impact site geology, indiate that between 0.4 and 7.0 x 10(exp 17) g of sulfur were vaporized by the impact into anhydrite target rocks. A small portion of the sulfur was released as SO3 or SO4, which converted rapidly into H2SO4 aerosol and fell as acid rain. A radiative transfer model, coupled with a model of coagulation indicates that the aerosol prolonged the initial blackout period caused by impact dust only if the aerosol contained impurities. A larger portion of sulfur was released as SO2, which converted to aerosol slowly, due to the rate-limiting oxidation of SO2. Our radiative transfer calculations, combined with rates of acid production, coagulation, and diffusion indicate that solar transmission was reduced to 10-20% of normal for a period of 8-13 yr. This reduction produced a climate forcing (cooling) of -300 W/sq.m, which far exceeded the +8 W/sq.m greenhouse warming, caused by the CO2 released through the vaporization of carbonates, and therefore produced a decade of freezing and near-freezing temperatures. Several decades of moderate warming followed the decade of severe cooling due to the long residence time of CO2. The prolonged impact winter may have been a major cause of the K/T extinctions.

Pope, Kevin O.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Disadvantaged Communities in the United States: An Energy-Oriented Mapping Tool that Aggregates Environmental and Socioeconomic Burdens

This paper defines a policy-relevant nationwide composite index to identify communities disproportionately impacted by environmental, energy, and climate injustices in the United States. We review existing vulnerability indicators and indices to assess the tradeoffs of different design parameters, including variable selection, geographic unit, dimensionality reduction, weighting, and aggregation methods. From this methodological review, we create the first nationwide, census tract-level index of cumulative burden that includes energy-relevant indicators alongside climate, social, environmental, and economic indicators, and is flexible to the inclusion of additional data sources. We provide a summary of the sources of inputs used to develop a definition for "disadvantaged communities" that can be used to prioritize energy investments. We discuss use-cases for this index including the implementation of the Justice40 Initiative, which calls for 40% of certain federal clean energy benefits to flow to disadvantaged communities in the United States. We use our results to examine historic allocations of federal energy investments and show that communities that we identify as disadvantaged received about 37% fewer funds per capita than non-disadvantaged communities.

cumulative burden↗

DOE OSTI2024

Response of the Current Climate to Land‐Ocean Contrasts in Parameterized Cumulus Entrainment

Abstract Cumulus entrainment substantially regulates the earth's climate but remains poorly constrained in global climate models. Recent studies have shown that cumulus bulk entrainment (or dilution) is particularly sensitive to continentality, with the entrainment rate in simulated maritime cumuli nearly double that of continental cumuli. This study examines the impacts of such land–ocean entrainment contrasts on the current climate using 21‐year simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's High‐Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM). In response to a 25% reduction in the HIRAM entrainment parameter c 0 over land, precipitation over tropical land regions increases by up to 40%. Along with directly facilitating enhanced convective precipitation, this c 0 reduction induces an increase in soil moisture, which may contribute to a further enhancement of convective precipitation over land. A 25% c 0 reduction over the oceans leads to more widespread modifications of convection patterns, with the strongest signal in the tropical Pacific. Deep convection shifts upstream (eastward) there, inducing enhanced large‐scale ascent over the central Pacific with compensating subsidence and reduced humidity and precipitation over the western Pacific (WP). Land–ocean variations in c 0 project onto the Pacific Walker circulation, with the 25% land reduction strengthening it by 4% and the 25% ocean reduction weakening it by 14%. These changes are driven by variations in convective and large‐scale stratiform heating over the Pacific. While reduced c 0 over land enhances diabatic heating in the Maritime Continent to strengthen the Walker circulation, reduced c 0 over the oceans decreases diabatic heating in the WP to weaken the Walker circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Global Building Decarbonization Trends and Strategies

It is evident from extreme weather patterns that climate change is impacting the whole world. The consequences in the form of unpredicted severe weather conditions, hurricanes, floods, and wildfires have been disrupting national economies and affecting lives across the globe. As the global economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, the temporary drop in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mainly caused due to travel bans and economic slowdowns is no longer the case and, moving forward, controlling the increase in GHG emissions has emerged as a global challenge. The impact of climate change has enabled an acknowledgement of the challenge and this coincided with the rapid development of clean energy technologies for buildings, transportation, and industrial sectors, while ensuring a significant reduction in costs for their wide implementation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Final Technical Report

The capture of CO2 and its simultaneously conversion to useful chemical fuels driven by solar energy represents one of the best solutions to resolve our growing energy and environmental concerns. The most critical challenge to this endeavor is the rational design of a photocatalytic architecture that can effectively couple a given photosensitizer (PS) with an appropriate catalyst, thereby enabling efficient photosensitization of a multi-electron reduction catalysis. This research program aims to address this challenge using an interdisciplinary approach that combines innovative material design and synthesis, fundamental mechanistic studies, and photocatalytic performance evaluation. The strategies include 1) constructing and investigating a novel class of 2D COF hybrid photocatalysts with an effective photoactive organic building block as PS and a precisely incorporated CO2 reduction molecular catalyst (MC); and 2) mechanistic origins of CO2 photoreduction using a set of complementary time-resolved and in situ spectroscopic techniques. The novelty of the proposed hybrid system lies in the unprecedented combination of the unique advantage of porous crystalline COF PS with the precise catalytic function of MC for photocatalytic CO2 reduction. In the periods of the support (09/01/2019-12/31/2022), we have made research progress in four projects: 1) Exploring 2D COFs with incorporated Mn complex for light driven CO2 reduction; 2) The dependence of excited state and charge transfer dynamics on monomer structure of 2D COFs; and 3) Control over Charge Separation by Imine Structural Isomerization in Covalent Organic Frameworks with Implications on CO2 Photoreduction; and 4) The impact of monomer structure on the photoluminescence properties of COFs. We found that both monomer structure and linker chemistry can effectively impact the excited state dynamics, charge transfer properties, and photoluminescence quantum yields, the important properties that dictate their applications in photocatalysis. In addition, we found that the direction of imine linker determines charge transfer direction and thus controls the types of catalytic reactions (e.g. water oxidation or CO2 reduction reactions). The result from these fundamental studies provides important information for correlating the structure of the COF photocatalysts with their photophysical properties and catalytic functions, paving the way for their novel application in photocatalysis. We expect that our findings will contribute to addressing current shortcomings of semiconductor- and molecular-based photocatalytic systems that suffer from inefficient light harvesting and charge separation and poor adsorption and activation of reactants. In turn, this research will contribute towards the development of novel photocatalytic systems for CO2 reduction to generate renewable chemical fuels and simultaneously address the problem of mitigating climate change due to CO2 accumulation. In addition, the experimental approaches employed in this research can be easily transferred to other energy technologies and are expected to broadly impact fields involving photocatalysis, optoelectronic devices, and solar energy conversion. The proposed research has also been integrated with educational activities and serve as a basis to raise awareness around the critical issues of global energy production and consumption, and to develop the next generation of solar energy scientists.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Inclusion of a cold hardening scheme to represent frost tolerance is essential to model realistic plant hydraulics in the Arctic–boreal zone in CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro

As temperatures decrease in autumn, vegetation of temperate and boreal ecosystems increases its tolerance to freezing. This process, known as hardening, results in a set of physiological changes at the molecular level that initiate modifications of cell membrane composition and the synthesis of anti-freeze proteins. Together with the freezing of extracellular water, anti-freeze proteins reduce plant water potentials and xylem conductivity. To represent the responses of vegetation to climate change, land surface schemes increasingly employ “hydrodynamic” models that represent the explicit fluxes of water from soil and through plants. The functioning of such schemes under frozen soil conditions, however, is poorly understood. Nonetheless, hydraulic processes are of major importance in the dynamics of these systems, which can suffer from, e.g., winter “frost drought” events. In this study, we implement a scheme that represents hardening into CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro. FATES-Hydro is a plant hydrodynamics module in FATES, a cohort model of vegetation physiology, growth, and dynamics hosted in CLM5.0. We find that, in frozen systems, it is necessary to introduce reductions in plant water loss associated with hardening to prevent winter desiccation. This work makes it possible to use CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro to model realistic impacts from frost droughts on vegetation growth and photosynthesis, leading to more reliable projections of how northern ecosystems respond to climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved Diagnosis of Precipitation Type with LightGBM Machine Learning

Abstract Existing precipitation-type algorithms have difficulty discerning the occurrence of freezing rain and ice pellets. These inherent biases are not only problematic in operational forecasting but also complicate the development of model-based precipitation-type climatologies. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM)-based machine learning precipitation-type algorithm that utilizes reanalysis and surface observations. By comparing it with the Bourgouin precipitation-type algorithm as a baseline, we demonstrate that our algorithm improves the critical success index (CSI) for all examined precipitation types. Moreover, when compared with the precipitation-type diagnosis in reanalysis, our algorithm exhibits increased F1 scores for snow, freezing rain, and ice pellets. Subsequently, we utilize the algorithm to compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. The resulting climatology pattern aligns well with observations; however, a significant mean bias is observed. We interpret this bias to be influenced by both the algorithm itself and assumptions regarding precipitation processes, which include biases associated with freezing drizzle, precipitation occurrence, and regional synoptic weather patterns. To mitigate the overall bias, we propose increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 , as it better reflects the precision of precipitation observations. This adjustment yields a substantial reduction in the overall bias. Finally, given the strong performance of LightGBM in predicting mixed precipitation episodes, we anticipate that the algorithm can be effectively utilized in operational settings and for diagnosing precipitation types in climate model outputs. Significance Statement Freezing rain can have significant impacts on transportation and infrastructure, making accurate prediction of precipitation types crucial. In this study, we use a machine learning method known as LightGBM to predict precipitation types. We show that the new algorithm performs better than the existing methods for all precipitation types examined. Additionally, we compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. Although the resulting climatology pattern corresponds well to observations, the algorithm overpredicts freezing-rain occurrence. We argue that this bias can be substantially reduced by increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 . Overall, this work highlights the potential of the LightGBM algorithm for both weather forecasting and diagnosing precipitation types in climate models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS2004

Biomass-Burning Aerosols in South East-Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment (BASE-ASIA)

Biomass burning has been a regular practice for land clearing and land conversion in many countries, especially those in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. However, the unique climatology of Southeast Asia is very different than that of Africa and South America, such that large-scale biomass burning causes smoke to interact extensively with clouds during the peak-burning season of March to April. Significant global sources of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4), chemically active gases (e.g., NO, CO, HC, CH3Br), and atmospheric aerosols are produced by biomass burning processes. These gases influence the Earth- atmosphere system, impacting both global climate and tropospheric chemistry. Some aerosols can serve as cloud condensation nuclei, which play an important role in determining cloud lifetime and precipitation, hence, altering the earth s radiation and water budget. Analyses from satellite measurements reveal the reflected solar (emitted thermal) radiation from clouds due to smoke aerosols can be reduced (enhanced) by 100 (20) Watts per square meter over the month of March 2000. In addition, the reduction in cloud spectral reflectance is large enough to lead to significant errors in satellite retrievals of cloud properties (e.g., optical thickness and effective radius). The fresh water distribution in this region is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall; in fact, the predictability of the tropical climate system is much reduced during the boreal spring. Therefore, to accurately assess the impact of smoke aerosols in this region requires continuous observations from satellites, aircraft, ground-based networks and dedicated field experiments. BASE-ASIA initiative has been proposed and will be discussed.

Tsay, S.-C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Anthropogenic–biogenic interaction amplifies warming from emission reduction over the southeastern US

A decline of surface biogenic secondary organic aerosols through the mediation of reduced anthropogenic aerosols has been recognized as an air quality co-benefit of anthropogenic emission control over the southeastern US. However, the climate impacts of this anthropogenic–biogenic interaction remain poorly understood. Here, we identified a substantial decline of summertime aerosol loading aloft over the southeastern US in recent decades through the interaction, which leads to a stronger decline in column-integrated aerosol optical depth and a greater increase in radiative fluxes over the southeastern than northeastern US, different from trends of anthropogenic emissions and near-surface aerosol loading. The anthropogenic–biogenic interaction is shown to explain more than 60% of the coherent increasing trend of 5.3 Wm -2 decade -1 in clear-sky surface downward radiative fluxes. We show that current climate models fail to represent this interaction. The interaction is further projected to amplify the positive radiative forcing from emission control by 42.3% regionally over the southeastern US and globally by 5.4% in 2050 under RCP4.5 compared to 2005. This amplification effect implies greater challenges to achieving the Paris Agreement temperature targets with continuous emission control in future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the effects of multiple land management practices, land cover change, and wildfire on the California landscape carbon budget with an empirical model

The effectiveness of land-based climate mitigation strategies is generally estimated on a case-by-case basis without considering interactions with other strategies or influencing factors. Here we evaluate a new, comprehensive approach that incorporates interactions among multiple management strategies, land use/cover change, wildfire, and climate, although the potential effects of climate change are not evaluated in this study. The California natural and working lands carbon and greenhouse gas model (CALAND) indicates that summing individual practice estimates of greenhouse gas impacts may underestimate emission reduction benefits in comparison with an integrated estimate. Annual per-area estimates of the potential impact of specific management practices on landscape emissions can vary based on the estimation period, which can be problematic for extrapolating such estimates over space and time. Furthermore, the actual area of implementation is a primary factor in determining potential impacts of management on landscape emissions. Nonetheless, less intensive forest management, avoided conversion to urban land, and urban forest expansion generally create the largest annual per-area reductions, while meadow restoration and forest fuel reduction and harvest practices generally create the largest increases with respect to no management. CALAND also shows that data uncertainty is too high to determine whether California land is a source or a sink of carbon emissions, but that estimating effects of management with respect to a baseline provides valid results. Important sources of this uncertainty are initial carbon density, net ecosystem carbon accumulation rates, and land use/cover change data. The appropriate choice of baseline is critical for generating valid results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity conditions, and the relative developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we suggest that there is potential for ENSO-based adaptation and risk reduction that could be facilitated by more research on this emerging topic.

risk↗

NASA NTRS2014

Aircraft Trajectory Design Based on Reducing the Combined Effects of Carbon-Dioxide, Oxides of Nitrogen and Contrails

Aircraft operations need to meet the combined requirements of safety, efficiency, capacity and reduced environmental impact. Aircraft routes can be made efficient by flying wind optimal routes. However, the desire to reduce the impact of aviation emissions and contrails may result in trajectories, which deviate from wind optimal trajectories leading to extra fuel use. The lifetime associated with different emissions and contrails varies from a few hours to several hundred years. The impact of certain gases depends on the amount and location of the emission, and the decision-making horizon, in years, when the impact is estimated. The Absolute Global Temperature Potential (AGTP) is used as a metric to measure the combined effects of emissions and contrails. This paper extends earlier work by the authors to include the effect of oxides of nitrogen in the development of aircraft trajectories to reduce the combined effects of carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen (NOX) and contrails. The methodology is applied to air traffic in the continental US. The paper shows the trade-offs between reducing emissions and the cost of extra fuel using a fuel sensitivity index, defined as the reduction in AGTP per kg of fuel. The paper shows the performance of the optimization strategy for decision intervals of 10, 25 and 100 years. Based on the simplified models, the inclusion of NOX emissions has a slight influence on the minimal climate impact trajectories when the decision horizons are around 25 years.

air trafic optimization↗

NASA NTRS2014

Aircraft Trajectory Design Based on Reducing the Combined Effects of Carbon-di-oxide, Nitrogen and Contrails

Sridhar, Banavar↗

DOE OSTI2024

The path to 2060: Saudi Arabia's long-term pathway for GHG emission reduction

Saudi Arabia, as part of its Saudi Green Initiative, has announced its goal to achieve net zero green-house gas emissions by 2060. This ambitious target underscores the nation's dedication to address-ing climate change. However, there is a significant gap in comprehensive analysis regarding the long-term effects of Saudi Arabia's climate policies and their collective contribution towards the net-zero objective. This study endeavors to bridge this gap through a detailed examination using the GCAM-KSA, a specialized version of the Global Change Analysis Model tailored for Saudi Arabia, employing a multi-sectoral methodology that integrates economic, energy, and land use systems within a coherent framework to assess the impact of climate policies on GHG emissions. Our anal-ysis reveals that reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2060 is a complex challenge requiring con-certed efforts across all sectors of the economy. While transitioning to low-carbon electricity and improving energy efficiency offer considerable emission reductions, fully decarbonizing the indus-trial and transportation sectors poses a significant hurdle. Our findings suggest that Saudi Arabia must triple its emission reduction commitments in its next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) update to align with its 2060 net-zero goal. Early action and increased ambition could avoid the chances of getting locked into the high emission assets and give enough time to transform the energy system. Furthermore, the adoption and integration of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) tech-nologies are identified as crucial for offsetting residual emissions, especially in sectors that might continue to rely on fossil fuels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of Arctic Clouds to Ice Microphysical Processes in the NorESM2 Climate Model

Abstract Ice formation remains one of the most poorly represented microphysical processes in climate models. While primary ice production (PIP) parameterizations are known to have a large influence on the modeled cloud properties, the representation of secondary ice production (SIP) is incomplete and its corresponding impact is therefore largely unquantified. Furthermore, ice aggregation is another important process for the total cloud ice budget, which also remains largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine the impact of PIP, SIP, and ice aggregation on Arctic clouds, using the Norwegian Earth System Model, version 2 (NorESM2). Simulations with both prognostic and diagnostic PIP show that heterogeneous freezing alone cannot reproduce the observed cloud ice content. The implementation of missing SIP mechanisms (collisional breakup, drop shattering, and sublimation breakup) in NorESM2 improves the modeled ice properties, while improvements in liquid content occur only in simulations with prognostic PIP. However, results are sensitive to the description of collisional breakup. This mechanism, which dominates SIP in the examined conditions, is very sensitive to the treatment of the sublimation correction factor, a poorly constrained parameter that is included in the utilized parameterization. Finally, variations in ice aggregation treatment can also significantly impact cloud properties, mainly through their impact on collisional breakup efficiency. Overall, enhancement in ice production through the addition of SIP mechanisms and the reduction in ice aggregation (in line with radar observations of shallow Arctic clouds) result in enhanced cloud cover and decreased TOA radiation biases, compared to satellite measurements, especially during the cold months. Significance Statement Arctic clouds remain a large source of uncertainty in projections of the future climate due to the poor representation of the microphysical processes that govern their life cycle. Ice formation is among the least understood processes. While it is widely recognized that better constraints on primary ice production (PIP) are needed to improve existing parameterizations, we show that secondary ice production (SIP) and ice aggregation can have also a significant impact on ice number concentrations. Constraining ice formation through the addition of missing SIP mechanisms and reducing ice aggregation can improve the representation of the cloud macrophysical properties and enhance total cloud cover in the Arctic region, which in turn contributes to decreased TOA radiation biases in the cold months.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Relative Impact of Sea Ice and Temperature Changes on Arctic Marine Production

We use a modern Earth system model to approximate the relative importance of ice versus temperature on Arctic marine ecosystem dynamics. We show that while the model adequately simulates ice volume, water temperature, air-sea CO 2 flux, and annual primary production in the Arctic, itunderestimates upper water column nitrate across the region. This nitrate bias is likely responsible for the apparent underestimation of ice algae production. Despite this shortcoming, the model appears to be a useful tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on phytoplankton production and carbon dynamics over the Arctic Ocean. Our experiments indicate that under a warmer climate scenario, the percentage of ocean warming that could be apportioned to a reduction in ice area ranged from 11% to 100%, while decreasing ice area could account for 22–100% of the increase in annual ocean primary production. The change to CO2 air-sea flux in response to ice and temperature changes averaged an Arctic-wide 5.5 Tg C yr –1 (3.5%) increase, into the ocean. This increased carbon sink may be short-lived, as ice cover continues to decrease and the ocean warms. The change in carbon fixation from phytoplankton in response to increased temperatures and reduced ice was generally more than a magnitude larger than the changes to CO 2 flux, highlighting the importance of fully considering changes to the marine ecosystem when assessing Arctic carbon cycle dynamics. Our work demonstrates the importance of ice dynamics in controlling ocean warming and production and thus the need for well-behaved ice and BGC models within Earth system models if we hope to accurately predict Arctic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States

Approaches that root national climate strategies in local actions will be essential for all countries as they develop new nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The potential impact of climate action from non-national actors in delivering higher global ambition is significant. Sub-national action in the United States provides a test for how such actions can accelerate emissions reductions. We aggregated U.S. state, city, and business commitments within an integrated assessment model to assess how a national climate strategy can be built upon non-state actions. We find that existing commitments alone could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, and that enhancing actions by these actors could reduce emissions up to 37%. We show how these actions can provide a stepped-up basis for additional federal action to reduce emissions by 49%—consistent with 1.5 °C. Our analysis demonstrates sub-national actions can lead to substantial reductions and support increased national action.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗